Episoder
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Forecasting election outcomes involves far more than simple polling averages, often incorporating complex models that account for candidate strengths, voter demographics, and historical trends. While these models strive for accuracy, they must grapple with the inherent unpredictability of human behavior and the challenge of quantifying intangible factors like voter enthusiasm and candidate quality.
In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Lakshya Jain, a co-founder of the elections blog Split Ticket. Jain offers insights into the intricacies of election modeling, discussing the limitations of polls, the importance of cross-tabs, and the value of embracing uncertainty in forecasts. He also touches on the recent shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, exploring how this change has reshaped polling data and electoral predictions.
ResourcesSplit Ticket: https://split-ticket.org
Split Ticket's Presidential Polling Aggregator
We Dug Into the 2024 Polling Crosstabs. What We Found Was Stunning. (Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle in Politico)
How #electiontwitter took over the political prediction game (Financial Times)
How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted (The New York Times)
Pollster Ratings (FiveThirtyEight)
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
Our GuestLakshya Jain is a machine learning engineer who analyzes political data in his free time. He handles modeling, data pieces, and presidential ratings for Split Ticket. Jain graduated from UC Berkeley with a BA in 2019 and an MS in 2020, majoring in computer science. He currently works in the tech industry. His political analysis and writing have appeared in prominent publications such as The New York Times, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and The Bulwark.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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America's political landscape is deeply divided into two distinct nations, shaped by historical, economic, and cultural forces that extend far beyond simple demographics. This divide manifests in vastly different lived experiences, policy preferences, and institutional structures between red and blue states, with profound implications for the future of American democracy and governance.
In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Mike Podhorzer, a political strategist and data analyst, to discuss Podhorzer's excellent analysis of The Two Americas, examining how factors like regional factionalism, economic models, religious institutions, and labor unions have contributed to the current political polarization. The conversation covers the limitations of traditional polling methods, the role of exogenous events in shaping political alignments, and the potential for collective action to address systemic issues in American politics.
Resources"The Limits of Education Essentialism" by Mike Podhorzer
"The Two Nations of America" by Mike Podhorzer
"As Go Unions, So Goes America" by Mike Podhorzer
Know Your Enemy podcast episode The Bomb Power
Cook Political Report podcast episode What Polls Miss - And What We Should Focus On Instead
Our GuestMike Podhorzer is a renowned political strategist and data analyst with decades of experience in labor politics and progressive causes. He served as the longtime political director of the AFL-CIO, where he pioneered innovative approaches to voter mobilization and data-driven campaigning.
Podhorzer is widely recognized for his insightful analysis of American political trends, particularly his work on the "Two Americas" concept, which examines the deep structural divides in U.S. politics. His writing and research have contributed significantly to understanding the complexities of modern American political landscapes beyond traditional polling metrics.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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In this post-nominating conventions episode, I reflect on lessons learned as we approach the last 60 days before the election. Some key themes include:
How not to be a crosstab trutherWhy elections aren't really that much like marketsHow forecasts predict the pastWhy campaigns don't need one single message to win the whole thingAnd what you should do with your energy and effort if you're not using forecasts to earn a living.Tune in to gain a nuanced understanding of polling, forecasting, and political marketing as we head towards the election.
There are 69 days to the 2024 election.
Recommended Reading:"Mad Poll Disease Redux: Harris-Walz Edition" Weekend Reading by Mike Podhorzer
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Polling data and turnout models are far more complex than most people realize, with numerous factors influencing their accuracy and interpretation. From the challenges of non-response bias to the intricacies of early voting analysis, understanding election forecasts requires a nuanced approach beyond simple percentages.
In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah speaks with Dr. Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. Dr. McDonald, known for producing the country's voter turnout rates, shares his expertise on the complexities of polling methodologies, the impact of demographic shifts on voting patterns, and the critical need for standardized election data collection across the United States. The conversation covers a wide range of topics, including the limitations of voter files, the challenges of predicting turnout, and the potential benefits of a national identity card for solving voter registration issues.
ResourcesVoter Turnout Gap in Surveys
Performance of American Elections Survey
Election Lab at UF
Current Population Survey Voter and Registration Supplement
Cooperative Election Survey
US Election Project (Michael McDonald’s Substack newsletter)
Our Guest
Dr. Michael McDonald is a professor of political science at the University of Florida and a renowned expert on American elections. He is best known for producing the United States Elections Project, which provides the country's most authoritative voter turnout statistics.
Dr. McDonald's work on early voting patterns and election administration has been widely cited in academic research and media coverage. His expertise extends to redistricting, voting rights, and the analysis of precinct-level election data. With a career spanning decades, Dr. McDonald has become a go-to source for understanding the complexities of the American electoral system and voter behavior.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Public opinion polling has historically underrepresented Black Americans and other minority groups, leading to skewed perceptions of national sentiment. Emotional responses to political issues and candidates play a crucial role in shaping voter behavior, yet are often overlooked in traditional survey methods.
Dr. Camille Burge-Hicks, Associate Professor of Political Science at Villanova University, discusses the evolution of political polling and its impact on Black communities. She shares insights on the importance of qualitative research in understanding voter motivations, the need to update outdated survey measures, and the potential for emotional factors to influence voters. The conversation also touches on the challenges of accurately representing diverse populations in polls and the responsibility of both pollsters and the public in interpreting survey results.
ResourcesPolling and the Public by Herbert Asher
Historic Firsts by Evelyn Simien
The Philadelphia Negro by W.E.B. Du Bois and Isabel Eaton
National Survey of Black Americans
National Black Election Study
National Black Politics Study
Collaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Study (CMPS)
Data Black Public Opinion Polls
Our GuestDr. Camille Burge-Hicks is an Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Villanova University. Her research focuses on political psychology, race and ethnicity in American politics, and the role of emotions in shaping political behavior. Dr. Burge-Hicks is particularly interested in exploring how group identities and emotional experiences influence public opinion and political decision-making among Black Americans and other minority groups. Her forthcoming book, Fired Up, Ready to Go: Pride, Shame, and Anger in Black Politics, examines the intersection of emotions and racial identity in political engagement.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Federal statistical agencies play a crucial role in providing objective, high-quality data that inform policy decisions, resource allocation, and business strategies across the United States. However, these agencies face significant challenges, including budget constraints, declining response rates, and the need to modernize data collection methods while maintaining data integrity and privacy.
In this episode, Farrah interviews Connie Citro, a senior scholar at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Citro discusses the findings from a recent report, "The Nation's Data at Risk," which assesses the health of federal statistical agencies. She explains the historical development of these agencies, their importance in providing reliable data for both public and private sectors, and the potential consequences of underfunding and political interference. The conversation covers topics such as data sharing between agencies, the impact of non-response on survey quality, and the need for greater public awareness of federal statistics' value.
Resources The Nation's Data at Risk National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) Fundamental Principles for Official Statistics Census Project Principles and Practices for a Federal Statistical Agency Our GuestConnie Citro is a distinguished expert in federal statistics with over four decades of experience in the field. She served for many years as the director of the Committee on National Statistics at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, where she now continues as a senior scholar. Throughout her career, Citro has been involved in numerous studies on critical statistical issues, including decennial census methodologies, poverty measurement, and the American Community Survey. Her extensive knowledge and experience make her a leading voice in discussions about the health and future of the U.S. federal statistical system.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Immersive gaming exercises offer a powerful tool for understanding complex geopolitical scenarios and developing strategic empathy. They provide insights that traditional analysis often misses. By inhabiting different perspectives and grappling with real-world constraints, participants gain a deeper appreciation for the multifaceted nature of global challenges and decision-making processes.
In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah talks to Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Amal Ali of Valens Games about their innovative approach, going beyond wargaming and scenario planning to more immersive strategic experiences. They discuss how their exercises help leaders break free from cognitive biases, explore alternative futures, and gain insight into complex political and social dynamics. We talk about the potential applications of these techniques to the current political situation, offering listeners a fresh perspective on analyzing and preparing for uncertain futures.
ResourcesInfluence by Robert Cialdini
Ezra Klein's episode on an open Democratic convention:
Sarah Longwell's The Focus Group at The Bulwark
Valens Games war games
Our GuestsDaveed Gartenstein-Ross
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the founder and CEO of Valens Games. He is a practitioner, scholar, and entrepreneur whose career has focused on analyzing complex 21st-century challenges and forging laudable solutions to them. Daveed is also the author or volume editor of over 30 books and monographs, including Enemies Near and Far (Columbia University Press, 2022), which examines ISIS and al-Qaeda’s processes of engaging in organizational learning. He is on the faculty at Carnegie Mellon University and Duke University.
Amal Ali
Amal Ali serves as the Senior Vice President of Strategy at Valens Games, where she specializes in engaging with government and public sector clients. Her career spans military service, intelligence work, and strategic consulting. Ali is a military veteran with experience in the U.S. intelligence community, including work at the agency level and supporting Army and joint special operations. Ali's background in intelligence analysis, coupled with her cross-cultural understanding, informs her approach to game design and facilitation at Valens Games. In her role, she focuses on developing immersive exercises that help decision-makers gain new perspectives on complex geopolitical challenges.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience in research and strategy for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions. Connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Political polling, especially among minority communities hasn't always had a great track record of representation, and of deep understanding of racial dynamics and ways different communities interact with ideas of civic participation. This conversation explores how allegiance to one's country and sense of belonging shape political participation, challenging more simplistic ideas about what kinds of participation matter, and why people do it.
Dr. Ray Block, a professor at Penn State who also studies "truth decay" at the RAND Corporation, brings his expertise in social identity and political involvement to the discussion. He shares insights on the evolving landscape of polling, the importance of community-focused research, and the role of protest in American democracy. Together we explore the nuances of political engagement, offering a fresh perspective on how we understand and measure civic participation.
Resources
Dr Block's Allegiance and Belonging Study
Google’s work on “Understanding America’s Interested Bystander”
Presentation at Personal Democracy Forum 2015African American Research Collaborative: https://africanamericanresearch.us/
Our Guest
Ray Block Jr., Ph.D., is senior research advisor for the African American Research Collaborative. He has led their research design on a range of polls, including research involving elections, health policy, and African Americans’ policy goals. Block is also the Brown-McCourtney Endowed Career Professor at the McCourtney Institute for Democracy and associate professor of Political Science and African American Studies at Pennsylvania State University. Block received his B.A. in philosophy and political science from Howard University and his Ph.D. in political science from The Ohio State University.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
Subscribe to Cross Tabs
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The shadowy world of online survey fraud threatens to undermine market research. Sophisticated scammers exploit programmatic sample systems lacking fraud controls to skew results. As the industry grapples with this growing problem, researchers must adopt new technologies and partnerships to ensure data quality and maintain trust.
In this episode of Crosstabs, host Farrah Bostic continues her conversation with Rich Ratcliff, Chief Trust Officer at Opinion Route. They discuss the challenges of detecting and preventing survey fraud in the digital age, the importance of choosing the right sample partners, and the potential impact of AI – both positively and negatively – on research. Ratcliff emphasizes the need for researchers to embrace new technologies and partnerships to combat fraud while maintaining the human element in market research. Researchers will want to hear Ratcliff’s valuable advice on how to navigate the evolving landscape of online surveys and data collection to ensure our careful designs aren’t undermined by fraudulent respondents.
Resources
ResTech Landscape Map: https://www.restecher.com/landscape/
"The Sample Bubble in the Form of a Conference Recap" https://www.opinionroute.com/blog/samplecon-2024-highlights-2-2/
"Securing the Survey Link": https://www.opinionroute.com/dataquality/securing-the-survey-link-2/
Our Guest
Rich Ratcliff is the Chief Trust Officer at OpinionRoute, a company that delivers accurate data by utilizing expertise in online survey sampling and proprietary technology solutions to simplify research processes, which enables clients to scale and researchers to stay ahead in a dynamic and competitive market.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
Stay Connected
Cross Tabs website & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.com
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Subscribe to Cross Tabs
Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:
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The multi-billion dollar online survey industry is rife with fraud, from individual survey hackers to sophisticated crime rings, exploiting the system for profit. Uncover the hidden world of survey fraud and learn how misaligned incentives, fragmented processes, and technological innovations meant to improve feasibility have led to an present threat of bogus respondents and invalid data.
In this riveting episode of Cross Tabs, guest Rich Ratcliff, Chief Trust Officer at OpinionRoute, joins host Farrah Bostic to expose the seedy underbelly of the market research industry. Rich shares his extensive knowledge gleaned from 30 years in the business, including firsthand experience interviewing survey fraudsters. Together, they explore the evolution of sampling methods, the unintended consequences of programmatic sampling, and the critical importance of data quality in an era of widespread survey fraud.
ResourcesInside the Minds of Survey Fraudsters — Fascinating videos from Ratcliff's interviews with survey hackers about their techniquesISO 20252 - https://www.iso.org/news/ref2369.html — The research ISO for quantitative research, which is 50 pages long and important for understanding data qualityInsights Association — Data Integrity Initiative OpinionRoute — an online survey operations company that helps market researchers eliminate the operational surprises and delays that disrupt projects using a blend of technology and human expertise.
Our GuestRich Ratcliff is the Chief Trust Officer at OpinionRoute, a company that delivers accurate data by utilizing expertise in online survey sampling and proprietary technology solutions to simplify research processes. This enables clients to scale and researchers to stay ahead in a dynamic and competitive market.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at https://www.thedifferenceengine.co/ , a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
Website & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.com -- Sign up for our newsletter to receive exclusive content, episode highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights delivered to your inbox.Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Political polling operates in a landscape shaped by evolving methodologies, true demographic shifts, and the challenges of capturing accurate data in the digital age. What sample source you draw from, what sample frame you use, how you design your survey questions — all of it can affect the outcome of a survey.
In this episode, Farrah Bostic speaks with Andrew Mercer, a senior research methodologist at the Pew Research Center. Mercer shares his expertise on the intricacies of political polling, including the rise of mixed-method surveys, the impact of bogus responding in online, opt-in sample, the nuances of question design, and the importance of transparency. The conversation offers valuable insights for anyone seeking to navigate the world of political polling (or other survey research) with a more critical eye.
ResourcesNational Public Opinion Reference Survey – Pew Research
Study on PartyID by Pew Research Center
How Public Opinion Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century - Pew Research
Online opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and Hispanic adults - Pew Research
Our GuestAndrew Mercer is a senior research methodologist at Pew Research Center. He is an expert on probability-based online panels, nonprobability survey methods, survey nonresponse, and statistical analysis. His research focuses on methods of identifying and correcting bias in survey samples. He leads the Center's research on nonprobability samples and co-authored several reports and publications.
He also served on the American Association for Public Opinion Research's task force on Data Quality Metrics for Online Samples. He has authored blog posts and analyses, making methodological concepts such as margin of error and oversampling accessible to a general audience.
Prior to joining the Center, Mercer was a senior survey methodologist at Westat. He received a bachelor's degree in political science from Carleton College and a master's and doctoral degrees in survey methodology from the University of Maryland. His research has been published in Public Opinion Quarterly and the Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into practical strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
Website & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.com — Sign up for our newsletter to receive exclusive content, episode highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights delivered to your inbox.Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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The battle for political salience is heating up as campaigns push competing narratives ahead of the 2024 election. But what do the latest polls really tell us about the mood of the electorate and the issues driving their vote?
In this episode of Cross Tabs, Aaron Zitner, editor and reporter in the Washington Bureau of the Wall Street Journal, joins host Farrah Bostic to discuss the Wall Street Journal's polling program. Zitner shares insights on the shifting coalitions, voter turnout patterns, and issue priorities that could decide the election, and offers advice on how to be a savvy consumer of polls in a highly unpredictable political environment.
ResourcesPoll: Election interest hits new low in tight Biden-Trump race (NBC News)Five Takeaways From the WSJ Swing-State Poll (Wall Street Journal)Survey of Consumers (University of Michigan)What Happened™ In 2022 (Catalist)Harvard Youth PollOur GuestAaron Zitner is a reporter and editor in The Wall Street Journal's Washington bureau, focusing largely on how politics are driven by demographic and economic change. He also reports on trends in polling. Earlier, he was the Journal's national politics editor.
Previously, Aaron was deputy chief of the Washington bureau for the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune and other Tribune newspapers. He helped lead presidential campaign coverage for the Los Angeles Times and served as the paper’s White House and Washington economics editor.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at https://www.thedifferenceengine.co/ and connect with Farrah at https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/.
Stay ConnectedWebsite & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.comSign up for our newsletter to receive exclusive content, episode highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights delivered to your inbox.
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In this episode of Cross Tabs, we delve into the complexities and limitations of public opinion polling with guest Mike Podhorzer. Mike, a seasoned political strategist with a rich history in the labor movement, most recently as former political director of the AFL-CIO, walks us through the weaknesses and blind spots of public polling. We touch on topics such as the differences between polling data and actual voting behavior, the flaws of national polls versus state by state or regional "ecosystem" polling, and how polling can distort public perception and affect campaign strategies. We also discussed the historical context and evolution of polling, highlighting key issues like the misinterpretation of voters' priorities and the psychological impact of polling on voter turnout. But it's not all bad news - Mike does offer insights into how polling can be improved and how better strategies can be employed in political campaigns.
Mentioned Resources:
"We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results." by Nate Cohn for The Upshot at the New York Times.
"Mad Poll Disease Redux" by Mike Podhorzer at Weekend Reading
"A Cure for Mad Poll Disease" by Mike Podhorzer at Weekend Reading
"The Newsroom is Not a Safe Space" by Ben Smith at Semafor
"Terrible Food and Such Small Portions" by Mike Podhorzer at Weekend Reading
You should definitely subscribe to Weekend Reading! Find it here: https://www.weekendreading.net/
And don't forget to subscribe to the Cross Tabs podcast at https://www.crosstabspodcast.com/
You can follow me on most social platforms at @farrahbostic
Or email me with questions or comments at [email protected]
Coming soon: a YouTube channel!!
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Ever noticed public opinion pollsters talking about "matching survey respondents to the voter file"? No? Just me?
Pollsters use voter file data - public records about who voted - to identify registered and likely voters. This data is used to shape election strategies and predict outcomes. Our guest reveals how raw voter rolls are transformed into powerful tools for micro-targeting and predictive modeling that campaigns rely on.
In this episode of Cross Tabs, host Farrah Bostic and guest Paul Westcott, Executive Vice President at the political data firm L2, discuss the complex process of collecting, cleaning, and enriching voter data. Westcott shares fascinating insights into how L2 builds comprehensive voter profiles by combining public records with consumer data, enabling campaigns to identify and persuade key voter segments. The conversation also explores the challenges of polling methodology in an era of declining response rates.
Resources"Hacking the Electorate: How Campaigns Perceive Voters" by Eitan Hersh
"Race and ethnicity data for first, middle, and surnames" by Kosuke Imai
L2 Voter Mapping tool
LiveRamp
AAPOR (Association of Public Opinion Researchers)
Our GuestPaul Westcott is the Executive Vice President of Sales & Marketing at L2, where he has significantly expanded the company's footprint across various industries, including academia, consumer research, corporate government affairs, automotive, media, and B2C marketing. With over 300 U.S. Representatives and Senators utilizing L2, Paul has helped make the company the largest provider of constituent contact data to Congress. Prior to L2, Paul worked in media for NBC News, Fox News Channel, and iHeartMedia, where he created and hosted a daily talk show and podcast covering news and politics. Learn more about L2 at l2-data.com and connect with Paul on LinkedIn.
Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
Stay ConnectedWebsite & newsletter: crosstabspodcast.com
Sign up for our newsletter to receive exclusive content, episode highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights delivered to your inbox.
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In an era of widespread mistrust in public polling, a deep dive into the world of political surveys reveals stark differences between public and private polling methodologies. Strategic research consultants Shannon Janean Currie and Natalie Lupiani at Benenson Strategy Group share insider insights on crafting effective polls, identifying key voter segments, and navigating the challenges of an increasingly complex electoral landscape.
With extensive experience in qualitative and quantitative research, these experts discuss the nuances of understanding undecided voters, the impact of question wording and order, and the critical role of transparency in building trust in polling results. They also share their pet peeves about the public discourse surrounding polls and offer advice for consumers navigating the deluge of political polling data.
Mentioned resources:
Echelon Insights “Do Voters Have The Wrong Kennedy In Mind?”: Do Voters Have The Wrong Kennedy In Mind?Harvard Youth Poll 46th Edition - Fall 2023Dan Balz “Collision 2012: The Future of Election Politics in a Divided America”: Amazon Link - Collision 2012: The Future of Election Politics in a Divided AmericaBenenson Strategy Group: Benenson Strategy Group | Strategic Consultants | United StatesDon't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!
Here are all the ways to keep in touch:
Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.comFollow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbosticOr follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.
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Amelia Showalter, co-founder and CEO of Pantheon Analytics, former Director of Digital Analytics for President Obama’s re-election campaign, talks to Farrah about the use of data experiments by campaigns to drive donations, volunteerism and turnout in elections. They also discuss the art of redistricting and the importance of local knowledge, and the way vote by mail has evolved, both as a partisan issue and a true driver of voter participation.
AUDIO NOTE: It's all Farrah's fault that the audio is not quite as nice as normal. Reminder not to disturb the Volt 2 during recording. (oops)
Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!
Here are all the ways to keep in touch:
Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.comFollow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbosticOr follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.
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David Radloff, co-founder of Clarity Campaign Labs which provides modeling and analytics, polling and strategy for Democratic campaigns, progressive organizations and non-profits, joins Farrah to talk about how campaigns create and use predictive models - about party preference and about turnout - to develop campaign strategy and predict electoral outcomes.
Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!
Here are all the ways to keep in touch:
Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.comFollow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbosticOr follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.
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In our second episode of Cross Tabs, Paul Soldera and Farrah Bostic answer listener questions about how questions are formed, why scales work (or don't work) the way they do, what weighting is, why you would want to "oversample" or use quotas in your sample, and what kinds of differences emerge when you're talking to people on the phone, answering a survey online, or letting someone in to check out what's under your sink.
Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!
Here are all the ways to keep in touch:
Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.comFollow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbosticOr follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.
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In our inaugural episode released on Iowa's GOP Caucus day, January 15, 2024, host Farrah Bostic (In the Demo Podcast, The Difference Engine) and pal Paul Soldera (Equation Research), set the table for what Cross Tabs is all about: demystifying what polls are and how they work.
Mentioned links:
Jill Lepore's "Politics and the New Machine" [The New Yorker]
Jill Lepore's "The Problems Inherent in Political Polling" [The New Yorker]
What Was Nate Silver's Data Revolution? [The New Yorker]
"Polls' Representative Samples Often Merit Skepticism" [Wall Street Journal]
"How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century" [Pew Research Center]
All in with Chris Hayes, December 21, 2023 [MSNBC]
NY Times/Siena College Poll, December 2023 [New York Times]
"From Which River to Which Sea? College Students Don't Know, Yet They Agree With the Slogan" [Wall Street Journal]
YouGov Poll Links(December 2023):
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/1
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/3
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/2
Suffolk University Iowa Poll (January 2024)
"Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics" [FiveThirtyEight]
AAPOR Analysis of the 2016 Campaign [AAPOR]
"Trump lost, but he won millions of new voters. Where did they come from?" [Washington Post]
The Focus Group Podcast [The Bulwark]
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