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“I think ultimately the bond market is the disciplinarian for fiscal policymakers” says Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management. Medeiros joins Macro Matters hosts Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI’s senior associate US-Canada rates strategist, to discuss all things US and Canadian rates. The trio has one foot on each side of the border on this episode, unpacking the recent bond-market moves and their drivers. They cover the developing state of fiscal budgets and potential stimulative impacts on these economies, as well where monetary policy and yield curves may be headed as price-sensitive investors demand additional premium for long-dated sovereign debt.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. -
“The cat-and-mouse game will continue,” says Scott Greenberg, the global chair of Gibson Dunn’s Business Restructuring and Reorganization Practice Group, referring to sponsors using “sneaky” nondisclosure agreements and anti-cooperation provisions to combat lender coordination in “three-dimensional” liability management. In a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Negisa Balluku at Beard Group’s Distressed Investing Media Night, Greenberg discussed his extensive involvement in the evolution of cooperation agreements, the flexibility of larger lenders with “more skin in the game,” and drawbacks of organizing too early. He also delved into the impact of reputational risk in the enforceability of co-ops, cultural differences that influence lender dynamics in European and US markets and his definition of “success” in liability management.
The conversation took place on May 6. The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. -
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Credit recovered from the tariff rout with trade war easing with many deals across US, China and UK while the new government takes shape in Germany and rate cuts priced for central banks - especially the ECB and BOE - adding momentum. The big question is whether this strength will continue? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Amir Fergani, Head of Credit LDI at Generali Asset Management, discuss tariffs, fiscal policies German and French politics and their effect on inflation, growth and central bank policy, the dollar weakness and its impact on global credit and the challenges of taking a directional view after big rates moves.
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Carronade Capital Management Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer Dan Gropper expects the US to be in for a “rough ride.” “If I were today sitting on the board of a major corporation, I’m not sure I’d build my new factory or start a new division or open 14 new restaurants. You’d want to know what’s going to happen with the economy. And so even the uncertainty without the second- and third-order effects that can and will occur from tariffs, even before that happens, I think you’re already seeing people starting to pull back,” said Gropper, when he joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel at the Beard Group’s Distressed Investment Media Night on May 6. He detailed his firm’s investment approach, which is rooted in deep distressed investing experience and a collaborative DNA (6:35). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Brendel discussed the sharp widening of spreads in the energy sector and credit’s gloomy outlook. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining them for a roundtable discussion on Serta, Hertz, GOL, Incora, Ardagh, CommScope, WW International and Rite Aid (28:20).
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Andy Constan, chief investment officer of Damped Spring Advisors, said a combination of potential expenditure cuts, which he estimates at around $300 billion per year, represents the largest fiscal tightening of his lifetime. Constan joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey, chief US strategist, and Will Hoffman, US/CAD senior rates strategy associate, on this episode of Macro Matters to discuss all things interest rates. They talk about some of the biggest bond market myths as well as the path forward for the Fed’s balance sheet as quantitative tightening downshifted into low gear. The trio also discuss the likelihood for shifts in Treasury issuance as well as where monetary policy and bond yields may be headed.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. -
Bitcoin’s volatility (currently 40%) is declining as adoption increases and the options market expands. In this edition of All Options Considered, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 10T Holdings and 1RoundTable Partners, to discuss how to navigate volatility in digital assets.
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There's a case to argue that peak tariff headlines negativity is behind for Canada and that can be associated with improved fortunes for the currency. In this episode of FX Moment, BI's Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Jeremy Stretch, Chief International Strategist at CIBC World Markets, about Canada's economic and political dynamics, for a Canadian dollar focus episode. The Bank of Canada will probably end up being more dovish than expected in 2025, but it isn't alone and combined with more expansionary yet credible fiscal dynamics under Mark Carney's leadership, that should all help the growth narrative and the currency.
Jeremy and Audrey also discuss the longer-term increased Canadian dollar appeal in a context of de-dollarization and global reserves diversification strategies. -
Though we’ve covered the coming (and in some ways already here) technology revolution for the municipal space in many prior episodes, our latest focuses more on the practical application of Artificial Intelligence. In other discussions with vendors, AI has been used to help scale businesses to prime them for growth. In this instance, AI is being used to hopefully generate alpha and provide an edge to the market. In this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Eugene Grinberg, CEO and co-founder of SOLVE, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano.
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Tariff-induced uncertainty has rapidly altered the cost of capital for companies across all sectors, with potential for wider spreads to persist. Carlos Mendez, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Crayhill Capital Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to dive into the firm’s focus on commercial finance and renewable infrastructure asset-based lending, and the insulation its defensive approach provides. We discuss Crayhill’s recently announced oversubscribed fund, market dislocations and private credit competition, along with technological adoption and tools for dealing with stress.
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The dollar and equity markets remain expensive even after the recent declines, says Sonal Desai, chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Desai joins host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and associate North American rates strategist Will Hoffman for a discussion about the recent extreme volatility. She thinks focusing on the broader economic outlook and market valuations is a way to stay focused on longer-term returns. Desai examines why the dollar isn’t likely to lose its reserve-currency status.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. -
“I don’t think that we’ve seen the full potential of these deals. What we’re going to see … in the coming years [is] sponsors and companies actually needing to execute on these third-party deals,” says Natasha Tsiouris, a partner at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP, about keeping the threat of the “deal away” alive in evolving liability management transactions. Tsiouris, in a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel at the Wharton Restructuring & Distressed Investing Conference, shared her perspective on the future of liability management, the mounting pressures on the “deal away,” the shift toward lender consensus and the arrival of private credit restructurings.
The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. -
Wide intraday-trading ranges across markets highlight risks on the downside and sensitivity to any positive news on the upside. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief global derivatives strategist, discusses tariff-led cross-asset volatility. Measures of equity convexity have spiked and spot-volatility reactivity has increased. Rates volatility has surged, but it’s still below 2022-23 hike-cycle levels.
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Building relationships is fundamental to turning around middle-market companies, according to SierraConstellation Partners (SCP) Founder and CEO Lawrence Perkins, as employees are “in the center of the bullseye [and] doing the work every day, taking the calls from the vendors, taking the calls from the analyst, the private equity sponsor...the direct lender.”
In his feature interview with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel (7:36), Perkins shares he’s encountering more “distressed by accident” lenders these days, courtesy of the private credit boom, than the “distressed on purpose” ilk. He delves into the differences between Chapter 11, Article 9 sales, and Assignment for the Benefit of Creditors (“ABC”). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel open up with thoughts on April’s market whiplash. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining them for a roundtable discussion on Hertz, J&J, Ardagh, Franchise Group, Yellow Corp and Telesat (67:28).
Links mentioned in the podcast: https://www.distressedinvestingconference.com/media-night.html -
Given inflation may be a feature of economy in the coming years, real estate and public infrastructure may be places for investors to consider, saysSeema Shah, chief global strategist for Principal Asset Management. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Shah joins host and BI chief US rates strategistIra Jerseyto discuss investment ideas and regions in the midst of market volatility stemming from the tariff war.
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The mortgage market may be on the brink of major transformation amid freshly implemented tariffs, proposed deregulation and the potential privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In this episode of Credit Crunch, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier are joined by Deepak Narula, founder and co-chief investment officer of Metacapital Management, to explore emerging opportunities in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). They discuss the negative convexity profile for the asset class, prepayment impacts, stagflation scenarios, utilizing machine learning models, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going private and more.
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Global markets are struggling to digest the unprecedented economic and financial stability challenges posed by an all-out trade war. Dr.Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower, chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to break down his growth and inflation outlook for developed and emerging markets across the globe. Natalucci and Sassower touch on issues ranging from central bank stimulus and de-dollarization to the risks posed by private credit and shadow banking.
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High yield had good first quarter gains with default rates low but cracks started developing in March even before Liberation day which led to a substantial rout with spreads selling off at record speeds. Will 2Q be a huge loss or will there be a turnaround and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Global Head of Credit Strategy, discusses the results of the BI 2Q25 High Yield Investor Survey, along with the market outlook, with Per Wehrmann, Head of European high yield at DWS Investments GmBH. The podcast covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value across asset class (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sector.
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Copper and uranium may be well-positioned as economies seek to balance energy needs against social demands. Oskar Lewnowski, Founder and Group CEO of Orion Resource Partners, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Rob Barnett on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss supply-demand dynamics across the commodity landscape, themes (including energy and technology) incentivizing new investment and the structural positioning of various minerals. They also explore funding the construction phase of new mines, investment horizons, the geopolitical climate and the alliance between environmental and mining interests.
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The risk to bondholders is that the 2% inflation target becomes unbearable for the Fed, says Jim Grant, founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Grant is joined by Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, Will Hoffman to discuss the outlook for US financial markets following a sweeping US tariff announcement. The trio discuss the rise of economic uncertainty and the extent to which recession risk may be priced in markets. They also unpack the role of US exceptionalism and persistent goods disinflation in the context of long-term market trends and how it may shift in a world leaning away from free trade.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. -
It may be all about US tariffs in early 2Q, with the April 2 US tariff announcements and possible retaliation from trading partners risking to entertain increased risk aversion, which bodes well with our bullish view for defensive FX such as the yen. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Bloomberg Economics Chief Trade and Climate Economist, Maeva Cousin, about what tariffs are in place already, what may come next and what are the likely implications - growth and inflation - for the US economy and its key trading partners.
In particular, Maeva shares her latest model findings and how the long list of US grievances with the international trade system could turn into hefty tariff hikes and a sizable stagflation risk for the US. - Se mer
