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Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that private investor interest in gilts has soared of late, now that they provide a good interest rate and are relatively risk-free, providing that they are held to maturity. They are reckoning, presumably, that inflation will not rise although some of the Budget measures have yet to have their effect, while oil and international food prices are currently rising. Russ points out that the weaker pound is a potential pressure valve for the UK, with UK assets more attractive to overseas buyers. He is concerned, though, that the primary purpose of the UK stock market, to raise capital for businesses, is of far less importance than the secondary, trading, function.
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Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the latest bid for a UK company, Team Internet, which he discussed here recently as trading at a discount to its international peers. He points out that UK companies are vulnerable to takeover; the worry is that the UK market will keep shrinking, although he feels that value investing will return. With activist Saba Capital trying to replace the boards of 7 investment trusts, he feels that private investors must exercise their voting rights. Details are here on the AIC website. https://tinyurl.com/3ad9np9u.
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Russ Mould of A J Bell reckons the most significant number of 2024 was 193, the number of global interest rate cuts. For the most part, markets got what they wanted last year. But at the end, bond yields were telling a different message, one which equity markets didn't believe. As for the UK market, yes it's shrinking in terms of listings but it is relatively cheap despite a decent yield, lots of buybacks and M&A activity. Looking at the top 10 performers is yet another sign that investors should always consider what is unloved and he reminds us that 2/3 of FTSE100 earnings come from overseas.
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Contrarian that he is, Russ Mould of A J Bell was surprised that 2024 turned out pretty much as consensus had it, though few predicted the surge in Bitcoin. Looking ahead to 2025, he wonders what might knock growth and inflation off the rails. He recommends keeping an eye on government debt (growing scarily), world trade flows and tariffs, the dollar (a trade surplus would starve the world of its reserve currency), oil and food prices (important for inflation) and the Magnificent Seven (now so large that they will affect so much else).
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Neil Shah of Edison Group highlights research claiming there may be a generational opportunity in the UK market, extremely cheap against other markets, particularly the US. The tide in sentiment may be turning and American investors are already looking to the UK to diversify and reduce downside risk. The company highlights 20 stocks in the report. https://tinyurl.com/56sj3h4u.
Neil also returns to 4imprint. It is US based, where the promotional products market is highly fragmented. Through marketing efficiency, they are growing market share.
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Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the Bloomberg piece pointing out that 45 firms have left the UK market this year through mergers and acquisitions. But is it such a bad thing that almost £50bn has gone to investors or that UK assets are both cheap and desired? It's true that the number of companies quoted in the UK has halved in 30 years but the decline has been true in the US and Australia too. We have too few tech and growth companies and too much stodge but the real problems have come from cheap debt – making riskier shares less attractive – and unduly tightened reporting requirements, making listing more laborious.
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Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses two companies he feels might be of interest to private investors. Focusrite, with a global market, has two divisions: content creation sells hardware and software while audio reproduction is driven by live music. Despite a torrid year or so they are investing in new product lines, have sound management and a good long-term record.
Accsys Technologies has a technique to give softwoods the durability of hardwood for sustainable construction. While demand is never an issue, they were hit by delays with production. They've started to open up the US market, however, and their first half results were really positive. Although still only at breakeven, they seem now to have things right and are a company on the turn.
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Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that supposedly risk-free 10-year gilts and corresponding instruments have risen despite interest rate cuts from central banks. At the same time, equities have been generally strong. In the US, the 10-year Treasury is now equal to the earnings yield on the S&P 500. Investors might be taking the extra risk anticipating upside potential but it could be seen as an early warning sign. In the UK, the earnings yield is double the 10-year gilt yield, making the domestic market look cheap, explaining all the takeover activity.
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Neil Shah of Edison Group says that since the Trump victory, Tesla's shares have added $300 billion. The market is betting that US policy will be supportive of Elon Musk and his company, which could benefit from a more protectionist approach. Although the fundamentals are challenging (the PE is 90-100), it relatively cheap compared to some AI stocks.
In the UK, shares in Dowlais Group (spun out of GKN) rose on their trading update. As well as metallurgy, they are in the automotive components business and benefit from EVs as well as old-style vehicles. The forward PE is only 5 or so and the company should come increasingly into focus.
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Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that US markets are strong in the wake of Trump's victory from a sense of relief that Harris didn't win. Trump wants to boost American growth, perhaps using tariffs, while at the same time wanting a weaker dollar. As the world's reserve currency, the strength of the dollar is of massive important. Russ discusses the Triffin Dilemma, which explains why the world needs a weak dollar and a continuing US trade deficit. Gold, he says, weaker on the stronger dollar, will be the ultimate tell.
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Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at Rachel Reeves' Budget. In advance, many peole were withdrawing money from investments but, although the gilts market has seen yields rise, there's a general air of relief that it isn't more draconian. He feels things should normalise in the coming weeks and that, with the UK still forecast to grow, it's a good investment climate. Low-margin, high-workforce sectors like hospitality and retail might suffer but with declining interest rates, real estate and housebuilders could benefit, as could companies associated with increased government spending in health, social care and education.
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Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the UK's main banks now that we're in the midst of results season. He points out that while the big five account for 11% of the FTSE's market cap, they produce 1/5 of pre-tax profits and 1/5 of total dividends. There remains a good deal of residual scepticism. They may yet be worth a look, despite the many possible adverse factors. Russ notes that cashbacks and dividends will see HSBC on a yield of almost 15% this year, with the others on 10-12%.
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Neil Shah of Edison Group finds London Tunnels' project fascinating. Despite the name, they are listed on Euronext and aim to turn the network of tunnels under Holborn Underground into a major tourist attraction. Although intended as air raid shelters they became a home for MI6 and ended up being used by the GPO. Details of a forthcoming presentation are on the Edison Group website.
Card Factory is demonstrating that a combination of bricks and clicks could be more effective than a pure online operation. The company is expanding its product range, stores and its online business and is trading at a larger discount than it should be.
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Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the UK 10-year gilt yield rising over 4%, despite the Bank of England governor saying that interest rate cuts could happen more quickly. Why are equity markets both here and in the US more optimistic than fixed interest investors? In the UK we owe £2.5 trillion and have a £100 billion interest bill, so the government faces very difficult decisions. The only way to reduce the burgeoning debt/GDP ratio is through growth or inflation. It will probably be a combination of both and 2% may soon be the floor for the inflation rate rather than the ceiling. Russ discusses what this may mean for equities, with 28 of the FTSE100 companies yielding more than the 10-year gilt.
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Neil Shah of Edison Group sees little to disappoint with Greggs' Q3 results. It remains a hugely efficient machine which is great at understanding consumer needs. Opening new stores aggressively in the wake of Covid and expanding into evening service, it remains attractively priced. He also looks at the collective investment vehicle Gresham House Energy Storage Fund. It has performed poorly of late. But the long term opportunity is great as we pivot to renewables, which need battery energy storage and it is an interesting opportunity as it is at a significant discount. More information is on the Edison Website. (https://www.edisongroup.com/research/rising-revenues-and-big-plans-for-the-future/34011/)
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Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point – rather high for the start of a cycle – and China's latest attempt at stimulus. In the UK, cyclical sectors are leading the way and the market benefits from being lower-rated and having more political stability, at least more than the US. The FTSE-350 also has an effective yield of 7.5%. Financial markets were not keen on Brexit but the pound is now almost back to pre-Brexit levels against the dollar, which will help suppress inflation, even if it crimps earnings and dividends.
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Neil Shah of Edison Group says that tech-focussed, early-stage venture capital company IP Group is worth taking a look at. With a market cap of £460m, some of the businesses it invested in are now quoted and, while the interim results reflected a difficult period, things are now improving. With some facinating things in the portfolio, the long-duration investor IP is at a 56% discount to net asset value.
Discoverie creates and sources electronic designs and components and has just moved into security. It's an attractive long-term business with high returns yet is at a 27% discount to its peers. More info is on the Edison website (https://www.edisongroup.com/).
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In the wake of the AngloGold Ashanti bid for Centamin at 1.7x price/book value, Russ Mould of A J Bell explains why so many gold miners are being bid for. Russ points out that gold mining shares are at an all-time low compared to the gold price. And gold itself is no more expensive relative to equities than it was when Richard Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. Combined with the fact that utiities are the top US performing sector, perhaps it indicates that, after 16 years of an extreme monetary exeriment, investors are expecting something nasty to crawl out of the woodwork.
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Neil Shah of Edison Group takes a look at two housing-related stocks. Rightmove has surged on talk of a bid. It's a jewel of a stock with something like 80% of the online estate agency market. This shows yet again how overseas investors consider the UK market undervalued. Neil believes Rightmove's model has amazing potential for AI.
He also discusses Barratt Developments, which has just produced a tough set of full year results with profits down 75%. However, the mood music for the future is much more positive and there's a bit of a turnaround. While there's uncertainty over what the Budget will bring, Labour's desire to ramp up housebuilding could see them well placed.
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So far this year there have been 108 interest rate cuts worldwide. Russ Mould of A J Bell has crunched the numbers for 13 interest rate cycles and found that the All-Share Index averages a gain of 16.5% after 2 years from falling rates. However, with investors often anticipating cuts, markets are far more volatile for the first 3-6 months. Russ also considers whether very low rates are a good thing, pointing out that a quest for stability by central banks can ultimately lead to greater instability.
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