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Was it wise to limit the strike to military targets, as per the American red lines? Or did Israel just miss a once in a lifetime opportunity to take out Iran's nuclear facilities? Are we going to see further escalation or will it all wind down now in the run-up to the American elections? We found almost nothing to agree on this time, not even Yair Lapid.
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Predictably, the US is once again telling Israel to "take the win," and bring an end to the war in a ceasefire-for-hostages deal. But the very idea is outdated since there is no longer a central Hamas leadership able to deliver a deal. Instead Prime Minister Netanyahu's message is that Israel will deal separately with each local Hamas commander: whoever will deliver our hostages can get his life and a safe passage out of Gaza in return. How this will play out, and what it could mean for other theaters – primarily Lebanon and Iran? Mike and Gadi discuss.
Mike's WSJ piece
The Politico piece we discussed -
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Iran is stepping in to fill the gaps in the Hezbollah chain of command with IRGC men. The plan seems to be a tactical withdrawal to the north in order to regroup and sync the various weapon systems into a better organized counter-strike against Israel. Meanwhile UNIFIL, the UN "peacekeeping" force, is shielding Hezbollah from the IDF, as does, in other ways, the Biden Administration. Mike and Gadi discuss.
Also on this episode: why did Gadi go to pray on Yom Kippur for the first time? -
Recent weeks have improved Israel's strategic position vis-à-vis Iran considerably. But the direct confrontation that had just began can have extremely serious consequences, not all of which are easy to predict. Gadi and Mike discuss what Israel and the world could win, what they could lose, and how the Biden-Harris administration could impact the outcome.
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With the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, Gadi and Mike agree, the war turned in Israel's favor. This masterstroke, coming as it did after a long string of impressive military achievements, weakened not only Hezbollah but also Iran, which has failed to respond in any meaningful way. Iran's major move, thus far, has been to threaten the United States. If the Americans would only stop restraining Israel and begin to support its efforts to weaken Iran, this turning point in the war could become a hinge point in history, the beginning of the sharp decline of Iran's Resistance Axis
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We did not expect this. For the first time in this war, Mike explains, Israel achieved escalation dominance, and regained its deterrence. But on the road ahead there are still major obstacles. Tactical, strategic, and political. The largest of them is the Biden administration.
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This was the world's first mass targeted assassination, where Hezbollah was made to self-select the targets. It also neutralized one of Hezbollah's cruelest strategies: embedding its military among civilians. Mike and Gadi discuss the operation and what may or may not come next.
Also on this episode: Netanyahu's decision to oust minister of security Yoav Gallant has not been reversed. If Gideon Saar is to replace Gallant, it's time to introduce you to the unbelievable story that is this man's political career. -
Israel was gripped last week by two scandals: one erupted over the Hamas strategy document, leaked to the German newspaper, the Bild. What was in the document was no less sensational than the fact that the IDF seems to have concealed its existence from the Prime Minister.
The second scandal had to do with leaked phone calls of former Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, the man who indicted Netanyahu. The leaked calls brought back suspicions about the politization of law enforcement. -
The woke classification of victimhood and oppression has put Jews on the wrong side of the divide, and so put many of them on the defensive. Not Brooke Goldstein, founder and executive director of the Lawfare Project. The project was created in order to fight against Jew hatred in courts, based on a solid civil rights agenda. It is a fight many more should be taking part in. Gadi spoke with Brooke about Qatari money that flows into American universities, campus antisemitism, and the growing risk to Jews of physical violence. Yes, there are things to do in order to fight back.
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When the news broke out in Israel, about the execution of six hostages, it seemed like the public was split in half over Netanyahu's policy to retain the Philadelphi Corridor. That picture, Mike and Gadi argue, is distorted in more than one way: there was no deal to accept or reject; the Philadelphi Corridor is not the main point of contention; Israel is not equally split between the two position; the Gallant, Gantz and Eisenkot game plan is more complicated than it seems; and the Never-Bibi crowd just suffered a strategic defeat with the collapse of its attempt at a massive protest and a general strike.
Plus: Tucker Carlson, Daryl Cooper and the rising tide of antisemitism on the American right. -
Mike explains why what the press is telling us about Israel's preemptive strike does not add up. Apparently, something different is going on.
Also on this episode: why getting your news from Israeli English language sources is a tricky business. -
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced at the end of a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday that Netanyahu has accepted the new US bridging proposal for a hostage deal, and now Hamas should too, the Secretary said. But Netanyahu's detractors in Israel, as well as Hamas, insist on blaming the Israeli Prime Minister for sabotaging the deal. In Israel that alleged sabotage is tied to the controversy over the Philadelphi Corridor, the border between Gaza and Egypt where the IDF has so far found about 200 smuggling tunnels. Gadi and Mike discuss the politics around the deal in Israel, the US, and among Hamas and its allies – all in the shadow of a looming regional war.
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Israel's existence depends on breaking Iran's drive for regional hegemony. This may take more than a few years, and probably several wars. The early history of Israel offers some useful lessons.
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Mike and Gadi weigh the alternative scenarios as tensions mount: on the one hand Iran and Hezbollah must respond, on the other hand they fear a massive and costly Israeli retaliation. For its part, the US hopes to provide Iran and Hezbollah a pretext for restraint, by brokering a ceasefire agreement on Gaza. All the pieces are set on the chessboard. What now?
And here are the articles we referred to: Mike's The Anti-Israel Sanctions Machine:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-harris-anti-israel-sanctions-machine
And Gadi's For Israel’s Progressive Elites, the Real War is Against the Enemy Within
https://www.jns.org/for-israels-progressive-elites-the-real-war-is-against-the-enemy-within/ -
An Israel Update In-Depth Special with Prof. Dan Scheuftan: Gaza, says Schueftan, is the most heavily fortified place in the history of warfare. Because it is fortified not only in the physical sense with its huge underground system of tunnels, it is also fortified by "Human Rights" NGOs, by the New York Times, by international tribunals, and by the general moral failure of the West to protect its own values. It is for this reason that Israel must win this war and establish for the future, that Barbarism cannot succeed in defeating the West by using the West's institutions against it.
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Israel reservists were detained for questioning after a Hamas terrorist arrived in an Israeli hospital with physical signs of abuse. But this was not a routine arrest. Army police behaved towards IDF reservists as if this were a raid on a drug cartel – which ignited a riot in which enraged Israelis staged a break-in into two army bases. Mike and Gadi believe this drama encapsulates a much larger conflict which is brewing within Israeli society.
Also, in this episode: what are the odds for the slaughter of 12 Druse children by a Hezbollah rocket spiraling into a full scale war? -
Senator Cotton attended Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech, and shared his impressions with us. Iran's proxies, Senator Cotton said, do not threaten only Israel, they "threaten the entire US led international order." We also spoke about Israel's war in Gaza, this strange moment in American politics, the Woke, and finally Jefferson and Madison.
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Mike and Gadi have already written Netanyahu's speech in their imagination to their own satisfaction – we'll soon see how well they've guessed. But one thing is not in doubt: Iran will be a major theme. Judging by the prime minister's recent public statements, he is going to describe Israel as standing at the forefront of the West's war against "Iran's axis of evil." This seems like a pretty obvious thing to say in the US, but in the context of the current administration's regional policy – it is anything but. Mike and Gadi explain why.
Also: how will substituting Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate affect Israel?
Bonus: Joe Biden vs. Thomas Sowell https://x.com/GadiTaub1/status/1815265490010292440 -
The failed assassination attempt on the former president will have vast consequences for the Middle East, some of which will be felt immediately. Israel, Mike argues, will have a freer hand to fight Hamas. A Trump victory however, with J.D. Vance as VP, will have far vaster effects on the region. Mike and Gadi discuss.
Meanwhile, the incitement against PM Netanyahu crosses the line into a virtual calls for his assassination. Yet Israel's law enforcement seems not to have learned from the American lesson. Plus: a rift between Netanyahu and Gallant re the Philadelphi Corridor looms behind the attempt to reach a hostage deal with Hamas. -
The question is not just about the day after. It is also about the day before the day after: what should count as victory? Some have declared the return of the hostages to be the only meaning of victory and are willing to push for a deal almost at any price. But that means that in the real world, Hamas would be able to declare victory. This will not fly with the Netanyahu coalition. But even within the coalition, and importantly, between the politicians and the IDF brass, there are very different ideas of what this war can and should achieve. Gadi and Mike don't necessarily agree on the issue.
- Se mer
