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On Tuesday, November 5, former President Trump won the 2024 presidential election, becoming the second president to win a non-consecutive second term. Our team has been hard at work analyzing the fallout, but doing so has left us a little tight on time to record our usual weekly episode. So in lieu of Rational Security this week, we're bringing you a conversation in which Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Alan Rozenshtein, Scott R. Anderson, Anna Bower, and Quinta Jurecic to discuss what happens now. They talk about what a second Trump administration may bring and what to keep an eye out for during the transition in a live recording on Lawfare’s YouTube channel.
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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Alan Rozenshtein, Benjamin Wittes, and Molly Reynolds to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:
“An Eye for an Iran.” After weeks of waiting, Israel finally launched the strikes on Iran it had long promised in response to the volley of missiles Iran hit it with earlier this month. Compared to expectations, the strikes were relatively limited and aimed primarily at Iranian military targets, instead of its nuclear and oil infrastructure. And the United States is now urging an end to these “tit-for-tat” strikes. But is this likely to be the case? Or are Israel’s actions just the beginning of a bigger conflict?“He Just Slid into my DMs!” This week, the Wall Street Journal published a stunning report indicating that billionaire industrialist Elon Musk has been having previously undisclosed communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials. How concerning should these conversations be? And what ramifications might they have for U.S. national security?“Post Mortem.” Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos’s late decision to squash an official editorial board endorsement of Kamala Harris—and to abstain from presidential endorsements moving forward—has triggered a tidal wave of opposition, leading to hundreds of thousands of canceled subscriptions from a newspaper that was already set to lose substantial sums of money this year. How wrong-headed was Bezos’s move? And what should the proper response be?For object lessons, Alan hyped the sci-fi classic "Hyperion Cantos," by Dan Simmons. Molly celebrated a profile of a former student of hers by the inestimable W. Kama Bell, which is part of a new Washington Post series on civil servants. Scott urged listeners to get out and participate in democracy this pre-Election Day weekend. And Ben logrolled for Lawfare’s newest podcast endeavor: Escalation, an audio documentary series on the origins of the conflict in Ukraine.
To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.
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This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Tyler McBrien and Anna Hickey and special guest Georgetown University professor and CSIS Senior Fellow (as well as Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor) Dan Byman to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:
“Some Vacancies in Management.” Israeli forces unintentionally hit their number one target last week when an Israeli military patrol in Gaza stumbled across and killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is widely believed to be the main architect behind the October 7 massacre. It’s the latest in a series of military operations that have left the leadership ranks of both Hamas and Hezbollah decimated. But what are these changes at the top likely to mean for these organizations? Is this an opportunity for peace? Or an opening to greater escalation?“Forgotten, or Not Forgotten Enough.” Sudan has spent the past several months spiraling toward a political and humanitarian crisis of historical proportions, driven in substantial part by the agendas of outside powers. But the situation has received relatively little attention from the global media or broader international community. What do we need to know about the Sudan crisis? And how does (or should) U.S. policy enter into the equation?“Person-ey Non Grat-ey.” Relations between Canada and India have hit a new low, as Canadian officials have accused Indian officials of leading a campaign to intimidate and interfere with Sikh nationals resident in Canada, as part of a broader international campaign. While Canada has gone so far as to expel involved Indian diplomats, its traditional allies—including the United States—have remained far less confrontational with India, despite concerns over similar types of behavior. What explains this difference in approach? And what tack should the United States take moving forward?For object lessons, Tyler celebrated the NY Liberty’s victory and urged basketball fans to get on the WNBA bandwagon. Scott urged D.C. residents to visit the beautiful Kenilworth Aquatic Gardens for a real taste of the swamp. Dan tripled down on the podcast’s endorsement of the spy thriller Slow Horses. And Anna recommended folks check out Bolts Magazine’s annual election cheat sheet as they prepare for the big event in just two weeks.
To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.
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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Anastasiia Lapatina, and Eugenia Lostri to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:
“Kursked.” This week, even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rolls out his “Victory Plan” to Western allies, Russian forces have made progress reclaiming what some have described as a key part of that plan: the region of Kursk within Russia, which Ukrainian forces seized earlier this year. How central is Kursk to Zelensky’s vision for how to end the conflict? And how will Russia’s apparent progress impact his plans?“The Waiting Game.” The world remains on the edge of its seat, waiting to see how Israel will pursue its promised response against Iran for the volley of missiles the latter launched against it earlier this month. What sort of response does Israel seem to have in store? And what role will the United States be playing?“Tap Tap Tapping.” A coalition of China-associated hackers called “Salt Typhoon” is believed to have hacked the system used by telecommunications companies to comply with U.S. legal warrants. How big a deal is this? And what might its implications be for the United States surveillance system writ large?For object lessons, Ben shared his electronic composition “Trump Portrait” (with apologies to both Aaron Copeland and Abraham Lincoln). Nastya recommended “The Road to Unfreedom,” by Timothy Snyder, as an essential portrait of the road to Russia’s brutality. Scott sang the praises of the Slate podcast “One Year,” especially for those seeking informative and (mostly) family-friendly podcast fare. And Eugenia endorsed the series “Nobody Wants This,” the most grounded and realistic rabbi-meets-sex podcaster romcom you’ve ever seen.
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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Kevin Frazier, and Katherine Pompilio to talk over the week's big national security news stories, including:
“The Fourth Law of Robotics is, You Don’t Talk About the First Three Laws of Robotics.” California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed SB 1047 this past week, a measure that would have imposed the first set of meaningful safety regulations on the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI)—measures industry leaders said were onerous and unnecessary. While Newsom vetoed this legislation, he endorsed the broader idea of safety action on AI, including at the state level. What does Newsom’s move tell us about the state of the AI industry and efforts to regulate it?“Battening Down the Hatchetmen.” As countless Americans have struggled through the aftermath of Hurricane Helene—and are preparing for Hurricane Milton, due to make landfall Wednesday—Congress has been in recess. And Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has expressed his opposition to any effort to call them back early to provide, among other things, supplemental emergency funding. What is the logic behind Johnson’s opposition? And what does it tell us about the state of Congress as we head into a potentially historic election?“Premature Articulation.” Last week, Special Counsel Jack Smith filed a massive brief laying out how his prosecution of former President Donald Trump can proceed within the (very messy) framework laid out by the Supreme Court in its immunity decision earlier this year. But the timing of this filing (and its unsealing) has some claiming that Smith is acting out of political animus. What’s the significance of this filing? And should Smith have waited until after the election?For object lessons, Molly asked whether the Mets rally pumpkin would go the way of Liz Truss's head of lettuce. Kevin urged listeners to help out needy Floridians suffering through the hurricanes through Feeding Florida. Scott sang the epic tale of his own hurricane refugee mother, and her long and unexpected drive up the east coast. And Katherine recommended the album "Big Ideas" by the life-changing artist Remi Wolf, and offers a warning against being influenced by the influencers.
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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic, and Tyler McBrien to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:
“Pulling Up the Escalation Ladder.” Israel’s escalating campaign against Hezbollah turned regional yesterday, as Iran launched a salvo of more than 180 ballistic missiles against Israel. While the damage was limited, both Israel and the United States have promised consequences. What strategies are Israel, Iran, and the United States pursuing in all this? And where will it lead?“At Least He Didn’t Get Aslan Killed.” New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s passion for Turkish delights has led to his indictment on multiple charges relating to alleged corruption, specifically at the behest of individuals associated with the Turkish and potentially other foreign governments. Adams, in turn, claims he is being targeted for, among other reasons, speaking out about immigration concerns. What is the real driver behind Adams’s indictment? “Devil Came Down to Georgia.” Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on the American southeast this past week—not just in coastal areas accustomed to hurricane season damage, but also deep inland as it cut through and past the Gulf of Mexico. In parts of southern Appalachia, the storm caused immense flooding that has wiped out whole towns and resulted in dozens of deaths. The aftermath is raising countless policy concerns, from ways to heighten resilience to concerns over the impact on the forthcoming general election. How should hurricanes and other extreme weather events—widely understood to be, in part, products of climate change—figure into our national security?To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.
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This week, Scott was joined by Natalie Orpett, Anna Bower, and Matt Gluck to talk over some of the week's big national security news, including:
“Some Assembly Required.” On Tuesday, President Biden gave his fourth and final speech as president to the U.N. General Assembly. He used the occasion to reflect on the many foreign policy decisions of his presidency, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan, opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the (thus far unsuccessful) pursuit of a ceasefire in the conflict in Gaza. What does this speech—and the year’s U.N. General Assembly more broadly—tell us about the state of his foreign policy legacy?“Keeping it Peachy.” Georgia’s state election board is in the news for rules changes that some allege could delay finalization of the 2024 election results, opening a possible door for Congress to manipulate the results. But what will these rules changes really mean? And what does it tell us about the potential for (and limits on) efforts to manipulate the outcome of the 2024 presidential election?“Memo-ries of the Way We Were.” Last week, the New York Times published excerpts from several memoranda prepared by then-President Trump’s White House Counsel addressing questions he appears to have posed regarding his ability to direct the Justice Department to investigate and prosecute individuals. Given Trump’s repeated pledges of vengeance if he were to return to the White House, what do these memoranda tell us about what he might be able to accomplish? And what obstacles may lie in his way, particularly in light of the Supreme Court’s intervening decision on presidential immunity?For object lessons, Natalie recommended Helen Phillips' new novel “Hum.” Anna stole Scott's object lesson and recommended season two of Rings of Power along with season three of Industry. Scott sang the praises of the best tiny speaker he ever did see (er, hear). And Matt Gluck dug into the sportsball file to urge listeners to begin following the Detroit Tigers' historic playoffs run.
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This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare team members Alan Rozenshtein, Tyler McBrien, and RatSec newbie Anastasiia "Nastya" Lapatina to talk through the week's national security headlines, including:
“A Shot Across the Rubicon.” Reports indicate that President Biden and his U.K. allies may be on the verge of giving Ukraine approval to use their advanced weapons systems to strike deep into Russia, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat that doing so would be seen as an act of war. How risky a move is this? “TikTok on the DokKit.” Challengers of the federal law that would ban TikTok had their (first) day in court on Tuesday in oral arguments before the D.C. Circuit. How were their criticisms received by the three-judge panel? And what will the implications of their ruling be for the law, and for TikTok more generally?“Dialing M.” Thousands of Lebanese—many of them members of the terrorist group and political movement Hezbollah—were killed or injured this week, when their pagers detonated in what many suspect was a complex terrorism operation by Israel. While some are proclaiming this to be the most accurate counter-terrorism operation in history, others are saying it was indiscriminate in its disregard for possible civilian loss of life. What should we make of this operation? And what impact will it have on the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict?For object lessons, Alan endorsed the new Vince Vaughn series Bad Monkey for finally giving the nice guy a shot. Tyler recommended the album "Manning Fireworks" by MJ Lenderman (as recently profiled in The New Yorker). Scott doubled-down on a prior Alan recommendation by encouraging folks to check out sci-fi author Ray Nayler's latest book, "The Tusks of Extinction," and the exceptional collection of short stories he's published online. And Nastya urged listeners to check out Serhii Plohky's new book, "The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History."
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In the debut episode of RatSec 2.1, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kevin Frazier, Eugenia Lostri, and Benjamin Wittes to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:
“I Have Concepts of a Segment Topic.” On Tuesday, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump faced off in what might end up being the only presidential debate between the two candidates in the 2024 election. What did it tell us about how national security is figuring into this election? “Running Political Interference Interference.” The Justice Department has been very busy these past few weeks, bringing an array of indictments and enforcement actions against various Russian actors and their proxies for spreading misinformation, surreptitiously funding political commentary, and otherwise attempting to interfere in the upcoming 2024 elections. What explains this sudden wave of activity so close to the election? And what threats are still hanging out there?“Never Forgot.” Twenty-three years have passed since the unprecedented terrorist attacks of 9/11. In many ways, they redefined the trajectory of U.S. national security policy (and politics) for decades. But today, the United States has shifted focus to a very different set of challenges. What is the legacy of 9/11 more than two decades after the attacks?For object lessons, Kevin readied our listeners for depression before recommending Neil Postman’s new book, “Amusing Ourselves to Death.” Ben endorsed the documentary Man on Wire as his favorite movie about 9/11, in part because it has nothing to do with 9/11. Scott urged D.C.-area residents not to sleep on the sublime joys of an outdoor show at Wolf Trap while the weather is still nice. And Eugenia shed her video game label to throw her support behind James Cameron’s latest maritime adventure, the (weirdly mutant-free) sea exploration documentary series OceanXplorers.
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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott celebrated the third anniversary of Rational Security 2.0 with their Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Natalie Orpett, and Tyler McBrien, who sat in brutal judgment as the three co-hosts pitched them their hottest takes yet, including:
Are concerns about judicial ethics overblown?Do ethics require that we open the borders and make whoever wants to become one a citizen?Should we just treat AI systems like the wild animals they are?Which takes are undercooked, which too hot, and which are just right? Listen in and decide!
Meanwhile, for object lessons, Scott shared some news about the future of Rational Security moving forward. Listen to the end of the episode to find out what!
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This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler "Spicy Tyler" McBrien to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:
“Jack Smith Takes a Mulligan on his Big Swing.” A grand jury has re-indicted former President Trump for his actions relating to the Jan. 6 insurrection, after Special Counsel Jack Smith trimmed and massaged the allegations to accommodate the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity. How different is this indictment? What are the next steps in the trial? And will these new allegations have better odds of surviving Supreme Court review?“An Eye for an Eye Leaves the Whole World in a Bind.” This past week, Israel and Hezbollah traded another vicious round of attacks along Israel’s shared northern border with Lebanon, as part of the long-awaited response to Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah leaders a month ago. Now the region is waiting with bated breath to see whether this will be the end of it or the start of a larger war. How significant is the risk of escalation? And what will this mean for, among other things, ongoing ceasefire negotiations in relation to Gaza?“Send Me a Kiss by Wire.” Pavel Durov, the CEO of the Russia-based encrypted messaging platform Telegram—which, in addition to being the platform of choice in much of the world, has become a popular choice among criminals and terrorist groups due to its lack of content moderation—was arrested earlier this week in Paris, and is under questioning in relation to possible criminal charges arising from the criminal use of Telegram. What is motivating this move by French authorities?For object lessons, Quinta recommended "When a Department Self-Destructs," Jennifer Schoenefeld's dramatic account of the in-fighting within Pomona College's English department. Scott threw his endorsement in (alongside the Academy's) for the beautifully mumblecore-ish film "Past Lives." And Tyler urged listeners to check out Tanya Gold's upsetting account of the commercialization of the Holocaust, tellingly entitled "My Auschwitz Vacation."
Note: Our discussion of Pavel Durov's arrest in France predated his indictment by French authorities.
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This week, Alan and Quinta sat down with Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to talk about the week’s big developments, including:
“It can always get worse…” Although President Biden’s replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket has reenergized the Democrats’ bid to retain the White House, the race is still a tossup, and former President Trump could well reenter the White House in 2025. Have we successfully “Trump-proofed” the government in anticipation? “Run DNC.” The Democratic National Convention is taking place this week in Chicago, and it’s a striking contrast to last month’s Republican convention. That event was largely a celebration of one person, Donald Trump. By contrast, the DNC is as much about the party as it is about its nominee, Kamala Harris. What does it say about the relative strengths of America’s two parties and what that means for the future of American democracy?“Making the Three Laws of Robotics Actual Laws?” California’s SB 1047, the controversial AI safety law, is set to pass the legislature this month and head to Governor Gavin Newsom’s desk for his signature or veto. Many in the AI industry, as well as even some members of California’s own congressional delegation, oppose the bill on the grounds that it will harm innovation. Others, on the other side, worry that the bill doesn’t do enough to protect against AI harms. What’s actually in the bill, and what would its passage mean for the future of AI?For object lessons, Alan introduced us to his favorite flower. Kevin recommended the classic John Steinbeck novel “East of Eden,” while Quinta has been listening to a podcast about sex testing in elite track and field. And fresh off the appearance by Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr at the DNC, Molly dusted off this 2016 NYT Magazine profile of Kerr for those interested.
Additional Links:
Quinta’s Atlantic article on the failure to Trump-proof the governmentMolly and Quinta’s article on the limitations of the Jan. 6 Committee as a model for future investigative effortsPromotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity.
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This week, the whole gang—Alan, Quinta, and Scott—got back together to discuss the week's big national security news, including:
“In Post-Soviet Russia, Ukraine Invade You!” In an ironic reversal, Ukraine invaded Russia this past week, seizing substantial portions of the oblast of Kursk and surprising both Russian forces and Ukrainian allies in what appears to be its most successful military venture in more than a year. Why did Ukraine take this step? What will it mean in the longer arc of this war?“The X is for Extremism.” Since the tragic murder of three young girls earlier this month, the United Kingdom has been struck by violent riots, the perpetrators of which appear to believe (incorrectly) that the attacker in question was a Syrian asylum seeker, in substantial part due to far-right disinformation being spread by social media, including by X owner Elon Musk. What do these events tell us about the effects of disinformation and their intersection with political violence?“But Our Emails!” The Trump campaign has apparently been hacked, with internal correspondence—including a lengthy vetting paper on vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance—being leaked to reporters. The campaign has blamed Iran, but without any apparent substantiation. Is this a real possibility? Or is it another example of the disinformation—regarding crowd sizes, Kamala Harris’s background, and other topics—that has become a prominent part of the campaign’s messaging?Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity.
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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's very big national security news stories, including:
“The Waiting Game.” The Middle East is on edge this week as it awaits a possible attack by Iran or Hezbollah on Israel in response to the suspected assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders last week, including the chairman of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed while visiting Tehran for the swearing in of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. What might a response look like, if there is one? And what does it mean for the region, including the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire?“Stay Weird, Austin.” Just days after the announcement of a long-negotiated plea deal for three of the four remaining defendants in the military commission trial relating to the 9/11 attacks, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin took the surprising and still largely unexplained move of intervening to rescind that deal and remove the convening authority that had approved it. What can explain Austin’s actions? What will they mean for the future of the military commissions?“A Favorable Exchange Rate.” In a surprise move, the Biden administration and several European allies concluded a massive prisoner exchange with Russia, which resulted in the release of 16 detained U.S. and European nationals and Russian dissidents, among them Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan. In exchange, Russia received eight Russian agents, including convicted assassin Vadim Krasikov. Is this a win for the Biden administration? What does it tell us about the state of hostage politics—and its future?For object lessons, Alan expressed his new passion for pottery. Quinta endorsed synchronized/artistic swimming as her favorite Olympic event, thanks in part to a surprise cameo from Jason Momoa. Scott recommended the movie Thelma for a funny and compassionate take on aging. And Ben shared how a recent near-death experience led him to dump chalk dust outside the Russian Embassy.
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This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Kevin Frazier to talk through some of the week’s biggest national security news, including:
“KOSA Nostra.” An overwhelming majority of senators voted to pass the Kids Online Safety Act, also known as KOSA—a bipartisan piece of legislation that would impose new responsibilities on online platforms in looking after their underage users. Despite the 91-3 vote in the Senate, KOSA has faced strong opposition from a number of civil rights and internet freedom groups, and its path ahead in the House remains uncertain. What’s next for the bill, and what does its success so far say about the state of tech policy in the U.S.?“Herding Llamas.” The company formerly known as Facebook announced the release of a new AI large language model, Llama 3.1. Meta described the model as “open-source”—but is it responsible to release such a powerful model that way? And what does this mean for the AI arms race in Silicon Valley?“Keeping the Nine in Line.” Fresh on the heels of the Supreme Court’s ruling granting presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution, President Biden announced his support for a slate of reforms aimed squarely at the Court: a constitutional amendment ruling out presidential immunity, along with 18-year term limits and a binding code of conduct for Supreme Court justices. But any of these proposals would face a difficult road toward implementation. What is the White House’s aim here?For object lessons, Alan suggested that listeners might enjoy homemade cucumber agua fresca as a cooling summer beverage. Kevin is enjoying a new song by Kelsea Ballerini and Noah Kahan. And Quinta recommended the movie I Saw the TV Glow.
Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity.
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This week, Alan and Scott were joined by Lawfare teammates Molly Reynolds and Eugenia Lostri to talk over the week’s big national security news, including…
“Bye Biden.” President Biden made the historic decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race over the weekend. He swiftly endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris, who now appears poised to become the Democratic candidate at the party’s convention next month. How might Harris be different from Biden, both as a candidate and as a president? And what will the change mean for the 2024 race?“The CrowdStrikes Back.” Countless businesses around the world found their Windows computers disabled this past week, due to a faulty update pushed out by the prominent cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. The consequences continue to ripple out, including waves of canceled and rescheduled flights at numerous major airlines. What can this incident teach us about the security of our computer infrastructure? And are there ways to avoid similar incidents in the future?“Netanya-who?” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give his long-awaited speech to Congress later today. But the normally high-profile event has been overshadowed by recent news relating to the 2024 presidential race, potentially mitigating some of its intended effect. What should we expect from Bibi’s speech? And how will it impact progress towards a ceasefire in Gaza—and U.S.-Israeli relations more broadly?For object lessons, Alan recommended Jeffrey Eugenides’ novel "The Marriage Plot." Scott sent a love letter to the New York Times’ odd coverage of world culture, including this week’s exposé on Japanese backpacks. Molly gave the people what they want, with a new public radio podcast recommendation: NPR’s "Embedded: Supermajority." And Eugenia carried on a longstanding tradition of bringing in video game recommendations, this time for the cozy agriculture sim Stardew Valley.
Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity.
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This week Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through one of the most eventful weeks in national security news in recent history, including:
“Too Close for Comfort.” Former President Trump narrowly avoided an assassination attempt this past weekend that ultimately left one rally-goer dead and two others critically wounded. While Trump and President Biden both made calls for national unity, several of Trump’s close allies were quick to blame the Biden administration’s rhetoric painting Trump as a threat to democracy. What will this historic event mean for the 2024 election—and for the rise in political violence and related rhetoric that’s preceded it?“Cannon Fodder.” After months of glacial judicial proceedings, federal District Court Judge Aileen Cannon finally did what many of her critics had long expected and dismissed the special counsel’s criminal case against former President Trump, based in large part on an aggressive reading of the Appointments Clause and narrow reading of the legislation allowing for the special counsel’s appointment. How credible is her holding? And what will it mean for the future of the trial?“Hillbilly Pedigree.” Former President Trump opened the Republican Party’s national convention this week by announcing his new pick for Vice President: J.D. Vance, the first-term senator from Ohio, author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” and a one-time critic of Trump who has since become one of his most aggressive ideological allies, going even further than Trump on issues ranging from economic populism to opposition to U.S. support for Ukraine. What does his nomination mean for the race, for the Republican Party, and for the future of national security policy?For object lessons, Alan shared how he rediscovered his love of video games. Quinta brought us another update from the Garden State, regarding the conviction of its senior senator. Scott shared a great story from political history, about the origins of the weird relationship between Richard Nixon and NBA star Wilt Chamberlain. And Natalie endorsed her latest TV indulgence: the HBO show Hacks.
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This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Contributing Editor Eric Ciaramella to talk over all the national security news causing traffic issues in D.C., including:
“Ukraine in the Membrane.” NATO is hosting its 75th anniversary summit here in Washington, D.C., this week. But its members’ eyes are uniformly locked on Ukraine, whose (eventual) membership several will voice support for this week—even as others worry about what a future Trump administration might mean for the alliance and its commitment to the ongoing conflict there. What trajectory is NATO headed on? And what should the alliance be doing to prepare?“So Gauche.” Left political movements emerged victorious over populist right-wing movements in two major elections in Europe this past week. In France, the left-wing New Popular Front squeaked out a narrow plurality over President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition and the right-wing National Rally. And in the U.K., a resurgent Labour movement finally ended fourteen years of increasingly unpopular Conservative control. What do these results tell us about political trends in Europe? And can they shed any light on what the United States might experience in its own election later this year?“Hindsight is 20/25.” This week, former President Donald Trump tried to distance himself from Project 2025, denying any awareness of the Heritage Foundation-led project that has produced a 900-page book of policy proposals for the potentially returning conservative president—even though several of his former advisers contributed to the project and a number of its proposals seem to be included in the platform that Republican Party leaders adopted this week. How does this agenda compare to what the Trump administration pursued in its first term? And what role is it likely to play if Trump does return to the White House?For object lessons, Quinta recommended James McBride's latest book, “The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store.” Scott highlighted two great pieces on the continuing relevance of the classic movie “Chinatown,” in light of both its 50th anniversary and the death of its author Robert Towne—and urged director David Fincher to keep at his plans to produce a prequel series for Netflix. Tyler shared the earnest welcome to the NATO summit produced by D.C.'s own wholesome influencer, Tony P. And Eric expressed his passion for the great Finnish pastime of hobby horsing.
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This week, a Scott-less Alan and Quinta sat down with Lawfare Tarbell Fellow Kevin Frazier and law school-bound Associate Editor Hyemin Han to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:
“I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience.” Unlike Ronald Reagan, Joe Biden’s underwhelming performance at the first (and perhaps only) presidential debate has put his party in a panic about his chances to win the presidential election. Was Biden’s performance as bad as the pundits and betting markets seem to think and, if so, what should he do about it, both with respect to his staying in the race and even his ability to finish out his presidential term?“When you’re the president, they let you do it.” After promising an opinion “for the ages,” the Supreme Court, in a 6-3, party-line decision, held that presidents enjoy at least some degree of absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts. Did the opinion, as the dissenting Justices argued, make the president above the law? And what does the opinion mean for the ongoing criminal prosecutions seeking to hold Trump accountable for crimes he allegedly committed while in office?"Tell it to my face…ial challenge." The Supreme Court continues its pattern of not squarely addressing difficult legal questions about the Internet. In Moody v. NetChoice, the Court sent back two challenges to state social-media moderation laws to the lower courts, instructing them to examine the laws on an as-applied, rather than facial, basis. What guidance did the Court give to the lower courts on remand, and what questions about the scope of the platforms’ First Amendment protections remain unanswered?For object lessons, Alan gave himself a post-tenure present in the form of a fancy grill, Kevin recommended a Parisian shark week movie, Quinta suggested an animated science fiction adventure, and Hyemin enjoyed a book about the geopolitics of shame.
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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined once again by Lawfare Tarbell Fellow Kevin Frazier to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:
Wiki-plea-ks.” After more than a decade in effective confinement—first at the Ecuadorian embassy in London, then in a British prison—Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is set to plead guilty in a U.S. federal court in Saipan to a single violation of the Espionage Act for his role in securing and publishing troves of classified U.S. diplomatic cables in 2010, at which point he will walk free. What can we learn from Assange’s saga?“Houthi Can’t Fail.” After months of sustained hostilities—and a U.S.-led multilateral military response—the Houthi campaign against shipping through the Red Sea has once again ratcheted up a notch, disabling a number of ships in sometimes fatal attacks and teaming up with similarly Iran-affiliated Iraqi militia groups. As global supply lines strain, is it clear that the international community’s strategy failed? What more (or different) could it do?“iAI.” Apple is set to enter the artificial intelligence game with its new Apple Intelligence, which it will be rolling out on Apple devices in the Fall. But not in Europe, in part due to its regulatory posture. What does this tell us about the pros and cons of AI regulation, and how the industry is likely to react?For object lessons, Alan shared a piece asking, “What happened to the libertarian party?” Quinta confirmed her millennial status by recommending the new album from The Decemberists, “As It Ever Was, So It Will Be Again.” Scott threw his endorsement to the very BBC film, “The Lost King.” And Kevin urged everyone to check out Kygo’s death defying piano performance.
To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.
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