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This week we explore the evolving US-China relationship and the drivers of the stellar equity market performance in Asia this year, joined by Dwyfor Evans, Head of Macro Strategy for Asia at State Street Markets. The recent summit meeting of US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping marked a thawing of relations but considerable questions remain around how the two countries will navigate geopolitical and trade tensions. These important discussions frame a regional market backdrop remarkable for its current strength, raising questions of sustainability of the concentrated returns year-to-date.
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As impressive the recent bounce in stocks has been, it is a Rally In Name Only. Large cap tech companies dominate returns, while almost everything else - whether at a country or a sector level - continues to struggle. With inflation spiking and interest rate markets starting to show signs of dislocation, it is worth asking if the concentration of returns carries with it the seeds of its own undoing. Marija Veitmane, Head of Equity Strategy at State Street Markets, joins us to discuss the sustainability of stock market strength and whether fixed income stress will have any lasting impact on returns.
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To kick off State Street’s series of global research events, we are joined by research partner Alberto Cavallo, co-founder of PriceStats and Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. In this wide-ranging discussion of inflationary dynamics, we assess the last ten years of recurring price shocks and how much inflationary regimes and the price sensitivities of retailers and consumers have changed. The current impact of another energy price shock and lingering effects of last year’s tariffs briefly feature as a sneak preview of Alberto’s eagerly anticipated current thinking. For a fuller presentation of those themes, please contact your State Street representative to register for one of our upcoming events in Asia, the Americas and Europe.
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Wednesday’s hopeful news of a possible end to hostilities in Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz comes just as the macro impact of events is starting to be felt and seen in economic data. A resolution does not change the realities of high near-term inflation and the varying policy responses to it. Geopolitical disruptions are still going to resonate for some time. This week, we speak to Noel Dixon, Senior Macro Strategist at State Street Markets, on all these topics, and to position in FX markets accordingly.
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Short-term market conditions remain subject to the headlines. Long-term questions of US equity market performance and whether investors require a rethink of their asset allocation preferences are the same and as valid today as they were before the eruption of Middle East hostilities. This week, Dan Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist for State Street Markets, talks to us about a new piece on the US stock market and whether concentration and valuation risks are as acute today as they were earlier in the year.
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In a decade full of seismic geopolitical events, the conflict in Iran had the potential to rank amongst the most impactful. Yet financial markets never priced it as more than a fleeting instance of volatility. And now, the most severe dislocations are almost fully closed with the onset of talks to deescalate tensions. Question marks remain over energy supplies and the macroeconomic impacts of higher equilibrium oil and gas prices. This week, Peter Vincent, head of FX trading for EMEA at State Street Markets, joins us to discuss the landscape for FX, rate and equity markets now that the dust has settled.
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Many of the consequences of the latest disruption to global energy supply have yet to surface. While oil has been the immediate focus, volatility across global interest rate curves is emerging as an equally consequential second-order effect. Markets are rapidly reassessing the scale and timing of inflation and growth shocks – and how central banks are likely to respond. Whether this period of upheaval deepens worries already evident in credit markets is a further concern. This week, Marvin Loh, senior strategist at State Street Markets, joins the podcast to share his outlook for rates, credit and the impacts on the global economy through the coming months.
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As the conflict in the Middle East enters a third week, markets remain uneasy but resilient. Lessons absorbed during past geopolitical shocks have so far kept this a slow-burn test of positioning and risk tolerance, rather than a volatility event with a specific breaking point. This week, we speak with Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas for State Street Markets as to whether this equilibrium can hold. He notes the most relevant variables of investor positioning and activity and their current messages, if markets are correctly pricing the policy response and why the US dollar has reasserted its safe-haven status.
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A wider Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, seen for years as extreme ‘what-if’ risks, are now realities. The ranges of macroeconomic and geopolitical outcomes are as vast as they are unknowable, but reasonable future scenarios are starting to take shape. This week, we speak to Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment Management, about the evolving conflict in Iran and the market implications for a prolonged disruption in one of the world’s key energy chokepoints.
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While geopolitical uncertainty dominates headlines, this week’s episode digs deeper into themes driving markets before the weekend’s events — particularly the sharp rotation in equities in 2026 and the reassessment of crowded AI‑linked trades and their fundamental drivers. Cayla Seder, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Markets, speaks to the shifting market perceptions around AI, the scale of hyperscaler investment, the growing role of debt financing in the tech sector and how technology's potential to transform the economic outlook is likely to play out.
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Market volatility continues to climb in February, with a landmark Supreme Court ruling on US tariffs last week upending US trade policy in an afternoon. Questions now circle as to whether last years trade-induced USD weakness that was expected to continue into 2026 is now at risk of reversal. Meanwhile, the yen's tumble under Takaichi-nomics has resumed, equities and gold remain choppy and many long-dormant correlation relationships are starting to reassert themselves. Managing risk remains a constant challenge, as Dan Mazza, head of FX Forwards trading in the Americas at State Street Markets, highlights in this week's episode.
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In celebration of Lunar New Year, we take a deep dive into China’s political economy. Despite trade tensions, a weak consumer and a halting post‑COVID recovery, a powerful export boom kept China on track last year—and could do so again in 2026. Fresh off a two-week fact-finding trip across the country, Ning Sun, senior EM strategist at State Street Markets, joins us to unpack what she saw on the ground and the challenges facing the world’s biggest exporter.
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The changing of the guard at the top of the Federal Reserve comes at a crucial time for policymakers and markets. It is far from certain whether the promise of artificial intelligence heralds an era of stronger trend growth, or if the displacement in labor markets that might result will prove more damaging. Kevin Warsh’s term as Chairman will surely be defined as much by this question as his stated desire to reorient Fed policies and its mission. To discuss all of this, we are thrilled to welcome back Simona Mocuta, Chief Economist of State Street Investment Management.
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Everybody loves an origin story, this week’s podcast has two. Featuring clips from our first episode, before the podcast even had a name, with our first guest, Fred Goodwin, a.k.a. Mr. Risk, we talk about the formative years of both the medium and the messenger. As his retirement nears, we look back over Fred’s long career as a trader, salesperson and strategist, and the many lessons learned along the way, especially on how to think about markets at their extremes. In detailing how his contrarian outlook was formed, we bring a strong sense of history to bear in thoughts on the current trends in gold, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and global equities.
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Extrapolating past results to predict future outcomes is typically futile. But what if we could isolate the most statistically relevant historic parallels towards making better forecasts? This week, we discuss the techniques of relevance based prediction and how more robust and successful outlooks can result from their use. Joining us are Megan Czasonis, Head of Portfolio Management Research at State Street Associates, and Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy, to discuss recently-published research on these new methods used to forecast USD performance and what the current framework says about a dollar outlook over the medium term.
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Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, is back on the podcast for a wide‑ranging discussion, looking back on the main stories of 2025 and ahead to the forces shaping 2026. Ron and host Tim Graf explore whether risks that once loomed large have faded or simply changed form, and how growth, monetary policy, and AI‑led investment may influence markets in 2026. Asset allocation trends, private markets expansion and global currency dynamics feature, before concluding with a view of State Street’s strategic priorities — from AI adoption to digital assets and ETFs.
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The start of the year is always a convenient time to think about consensus risk. Market watchers have all updated their forecasts and published their year ahead pieces. For the first episode of Street Signals in 2026, host Tim Graf, head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, carries on a tradition in going through a few of the most prominent consensus outlooks, mapping them to the message from our proprietary indicators and highlighting opportunities to go with or against the herd.
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Just before Christmas, it's tradition for the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 12th edition of that list, available now on our Insights platform. This week's podcast is an audio summary of that document and a chance to bid you a very festive and happy holiday season, and wish you a Happy New Year!
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After getting the year-ahead views of the Macro Strategy team at State Street Markets last week (which you can listen to here), this week we hear from our FX Trading team. Questions of central bank independence and policy divergence top the list of risk factors for 2026, with implications of the AI investment cycle also factoring heavily into a macro outlook. We catch up with Peter Vincent, EMEA Head of Trading, for his thoughts on the state of the US labor market, inflation, policies of the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan, and the other critical drivers for rates and FX around the world.
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The Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets has published their top ideas for the year ahead. Will the tech stock bull run continue, or are recent, rising credit concerns enough to derail sentiment and valuations? Was 2025's dollar decline the beginning of a multi-year trend or is the buck on the brink of reversal? And are Japan's recent attempts at reflation about to stall or take the next step to success? We present a dozen ideas, across equities, fixed income and FX, all with an eye on which themes will continue into and emerge from 2026.
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