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This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yields
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Not much happened last week...just an Election and a Fed meeting. On this episode of The Rate Guy we cover both of those and talk tariffs, their potential inflation impact, projected cuts in 2025 and whether McConnell might be Trumpâs biggest obstacle.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn Stateâs repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the latest disappointing jobs report, rising unemployment, and the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Plus, we look ahead to a potentially volatile week with the election and Fed meeting on the horizon.
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We're baaaaack! On this weekâs episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we canât take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down.
Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP forecasts, and what to expect from the next jobs report. Is inflation really making a comeback? Can strong GDP calm the markets? And whatâs the Fed's next move?
Plus, highlights from our Iceland adventureâstunning waterfalls, elusive northern lights, and why the Blue Lagoon left us seriously underwhelmed.
To see a few shots from our trip check out the Pensford Newsletter.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how to view the latest Jobs print and how it won't impact the Fed's move in November.
FYI the graph is full of orange representing the Unexplained Employment.(not red as Sarah remembered on the podcast) To view in the Pensford newsletter click here.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on whatâs next.
Plus, JMo finally conceded defeat on our inflation bet, and we unveil his identity!
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, weâre keeping it short and sweet. Weâre prepping for Wednesdayâs rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed wonât go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. Weâll also touch on what you might want to do with caps ahead of the meeting.
Here is the link to register for the Q3 Interest Rate Webinar that you won't want to miss!
Topics of DiscussionRegister to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on September 19th, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT.
This webinar will cover a variety of topics including:
Fixed and Floating Rate Forecasts Rate Cuts Faster than Expected Whether Rate Cuts are too Late Labor Market Weakness Risk of Recurring Inflation Hedging Against Falling Rates -
In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed.
Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, âWe do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,â which has huge implications for future rate cuts. With job gains averaging just 116k per month, we break down why the benchmark for job growth is 100kânot zeroâand how that ties into the Fedâs decision-making.
We also dive into research, like Indeed's Nick Bunkerâs analysis on how much the labor market has already cooled (link), and ask the key question: will cutting rates fast reaccelerate inflation?
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the latest inflation data, why the Fed will cut rates, regardless of what Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reveals and what may influence a 50bps cut instead of 25bps. We also address concerns about the economy heating up again when the Fed starts cutting and why that's not going to happen.
Link to the CNBC article about fake jobs.
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Football season is back, and so is JP's trash talk! In this episode of The Rate Guy, we touch on some friendly (or not-so-friendly) college football banter and dive into the real game: Fed policy moves. With Powell signaling a rate cut next month and the labor market's true strength under scrutiny, we break down what this means for the economy. We'll also explore how misleading job data could be skewing perceptions and why easing off the brakes might be just what the economy needs right now.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's Jackson Hole meeting where the theme is âReassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.â We talk about some of the things they might touch on and how the market may react. We also discuss the consumer spending situation; why it's not as rosy as the number suggests and why these red flags have not yet caused a more significant slowdown in consumer spending.
Here is the link to the quarterly report that the NY Fed puts out on consumer debt that we discuss. For graphs referenced, check out this week's Pensford Newsletter.
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On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we get a little creative and compare Olympic athletes to players in the Interest Rate game. On the heels of a couple data heavy weeks, we hope this is a breathe of fresh air for you all. And you may be asking, there's a connection between the Australian "break dancer" and interest rates!? Yep, there sure is!
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In this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we dive into the concept of the "JP Rule"âthe idea that, given enough time, JP is always rightâand compare it to the established Sahm and Taylor economic rules. We also cover one of the most significant economic weeks in recent memory, possibly since the Fed began hiking rates. Thereâs a lot to discuss this week, including the potential number of rate cuts this year and the factors that could influence them. We'll explore the chaos that erupted after the latest jobs report, the implications of the Sahm Rule being triggered, and the importance of the Quits, Layoffs, and Labor Supply report. Tune in to find out why these issues deserve your attention.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's upcoming Fed meeting, jobs report and what impact those may have on rates and cap pricing. JP also gives an update on the JMo wager!
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On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on interest rates. We'll cover market updates, dive into recent Fed speeches and we'll continue our Cap conversation exploring cap pricing scenarios and the effects of market volatility.
The good article referenced was by WSJ journalist Greg Ip link here and indicated the Fed should begin cutting now.
This was a graph heavy newsletter! To view them in the newsletter, click here.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into last week's CPI report, how it may impact rate trajectory, how cap prices may behave in a falling rate environment and what strategies you should be considering for your upcoming caps.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "HOT" jobs data, the upcoming inflation data, Powell's testimony and the liklihood of Fed cuts this year.
As always you can read the Pensford Newsletter here.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we dig a little deeper into the recent Jobs Report and discuss the underlying data that should be getting attention, CPI, the ECB cutting and how all of that may affect this week's Fed meeting.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy weâre breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager trackerâare we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced with and how that could shape the rest of the year.
In case you want to check out the interesting piece we reference by Dr. Jeremy Horpedahl that suggested job gains are artificially inflated. Read Here
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong.
If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we tackle mid-week.
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