Episoder
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In this episode Jonathan and Rory continue to evaluate the risks from the Middle East & the uncertainty in the financial markets. Also looking at higher yields and central bank action from around the globe.
The war in the Middle East is still raging and shows no sign of stopping. In the podcast Rory mentions the risk of other countries such as Iran getting involved and the potential catalysts that could being to the table.
The ECB are expected to hold rates this week however the door is open in the future for hikes as higher oil prices Continue to drive prices higher says Christine Lagarde and the ECB are cautions of this.
The US markets snapped a strong losing streak after better than expected earnings from Microsoft and Google. Google was down due to their cloud revenue being lower than forecast.
Higher yields in the US and across the EU/GB have punished stocks in recent days with the US S&P500 breaching the 4200 support level. Hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman announced he was covering his short bond positions and now is looking to go long bonds as these attractive yields.
The Fed are almost certain not to hike rates next week however the door may be open in December as Jerome Powell is watching yields with caution.
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In this episode the blokes look at the impact of war on the financial markets & what markets are most effected.
The blokes also share their deepest condolences to the innocent people that have been effected by the war, especially the woman & children.
Jonathan discusses how there is always two sides to every war & how main stream media always have an agenda, so make your own opinion through valid sources.
Rory discusses how religion has & always will be a major cause in so many wars, along with the fight for power, money & resources.
Jonathan shares how he was compelled to an image drawn by the famous artist Banksy, depicting the innocents of children regardless of their cultural background.
While the war in the Middle East continues, the question for us traders is how does it effect the markets? Jonathan and Rory break down what exactly the implications are for now & may have in the future.
While neither countries involved are major contributors to the global markets, countries such as Iran are major oil exporters which account for nearly 2% of total daily production.
If they were to get involved and sanctioned, how would this impact commodity and energy markets? It would be negative and quite inflationary for markets causing a stronger dollar and weaker equities (similar to what we are seeing right now).
The History books will tell us "the greater the increase in oil prices, the more likely a recession eventually unfolds."
The question Jonathan wants to know is how much of this is priced in to the markets already. Unfortunately we don’t know what is priced in but what isn’t priced in is a deep escalation and involvement of Iran.
If the war stopped tomorrow, we don’t think markets would react hugely positively, maybe slightly. However any escalation could be detrimental to markets.
We are already seeing the cracks appear outside of the Middle East with inflation back on the rise, consumer spending strong however savings are down, credit card purchases are up and credit card delinquencies are increasing.
Inflation & Interest rates remain high with no signs of slowing down with the 10yr US Bond Yield breaking above 4.9% on Wednesday.
Why is all of this so important? Tune into this weeks podcast to find out more.
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In this weeks podcast the blokes discuss the difference between technical versus fundamental traders.
We also introduce Adam Harris, a long term professional in the financial markets who has now joined the team and most will already have noticed his great analysis within the app already. Adam talks us through his background and years of experience. He starts by telling us exactly how he got into trading and the process that led him down the route of predominately becoming a successful technical trader.
The blokes share their opinions on their styles of trading, showing that regardless of how you analyse the markets whether that’s technical, fundamental or sentiment based, you can be still be profitable. There is a million ways to trade the financial markets its just perfecting your strategy to gain consistency over the long term. The blokes all agree that mentoring was key to success in their journey.
The podcast was also recorded over the US CPI release and with a 3.7% YoY figure and MoM beating expectations, Dollar strength has since ripped back through the market causing risk off selling. While Rory couldn’t keep a good internet connection, he was able to tell us more about his view on markets this week and what a higher CPI number means for markets going forward.
Following this the blokes discuss the rise in interest rates in the US & their opinion on the next US election with Adam of the opinion Biden will walk the next election due to uncertain times.
Adam also discusses in the podcast his best tips for new and upcoming traders and what he recommends doing when starting out.
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In this podcast, Jonathan and Rory discuss the importance of using macroeconomic indicators.
During the live NFP stream that Jonathan and Rory shared via the TBT app, Rory mentioned before NFP was released how he thought there would be a larger than expected number as he read reports on indicators that suggest employment is increasing.
Looking at reports such as the ISM and being able to take a collective data set of the recent initial jobless claims report, you can marry up the data and draw your own conclusions. This analysis can give you the edge when trying to forecast data releases.
On this point, Jonathan mentions the importance of using your own data and your own ideas rather than relying on other people’s ideas. Jonathan says, “We see it time and time again where Investment banks have conflicting opinions and these guys are supposed to be the industry experts”.
Rory also discusses the importance of not taking trade ideas directly from anyone. The main reason, it is that usually when things go wrong and its more often than not, they won’t post about it and let people know. This means people will be stuck in the trade with a losing position and won’t know when to get out.
To find out more about the importance of using your own data, make sure to join the app today where this topic is heavily discussed by Rory.
Check out the FREE Two Blokes Trading Community for education, analysis & much more!
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I’m this episode, Jonathan and Rory breakdown the week ahead in the markets and discuss the moves of last week, including why gold is not so shiny for investors. The blokes also share their opinion on what markets to watch this week.
The ISM PMI came in above estimates however the S&P500 didn’t manage to take much advantage, closing nearly flat on Monday. However, tech is still being driven higher by just a handful of names.
Dollar continues the climb above 107 as traders wait for the NFP and ESR report on Friday to determine the US labour market conditions. The ISM said that employment was better and on Tuesday afternoon, JOLT job openings has risen higher than expected creating more openings and a stronger market.
Rory discusses in the podcast how there is 28% probability of a rate hike In November however there is a 6% probability of a 50bps hike in December, any wonder the dollar is rallying.
Speaking of dollar, EURUSD continues to be held lower now at 1.04 , close to parity and levels feared last year.
USDJPY pushed 150 before a huge shock lower to 147.50. Word on the street that the BOJ intervened in the open market. This would have pushed rates lower monetarily and we could hear commentary from them soon.
Gold now close to $1800 , what a tremendous fall it has seen since the break of 2000. A lot quicker than we anticipated, however given the dollar strength, it comes with no surprise. Are you long or short gold at $1800?
Oil has seen some rejection at the low $90’s and is now back below 90 at the high 80’s. Could winter demand start to push oil higher and what are the views on OPEC? All of our analysis is covered live in the APP.
We will also be covering Non Farm Payroll live in the APP on Friday, come watch us as we analysis the markets live!
Check out the FREE Two Blokes Trading Community for education, analysis & much more!
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In this episode the blokes breakdown the markets & ask the question are stocks doomed?
The blokes discuss how it’s a great time to be trading! Markets are directional which presents huge opportunity to capitalise.
Rory also tells us how McDonald’s was founded. Have you watched the movie about McDonalds? If not it’s a great watch for anyone with an entrepreneurial mindset. I won’t spoil it here but I do suggest to watch it.
This week In markets we focus on Yields, consumer confidence, dollar strength and equities which remain pressured as market sentiment shifts!
A weak bond market which is effectively pushing yields higher and strength into the dollar is playing havoc on the equity market. As of 6pm London time on Tuesday, the S&P500 was down over -1.1% as dollar continued to surge and yields on the 10yr pushed past 4.5%.
Fed Member Neel Kashkari reiterated his statement that he expects another rate hike this year however that was closely followed by a statement saying he thinks there’s a 60% chance of a soft landing. I feel like he’s been told to say this as markets reacted the first time and ignored him on the latter.
China is also facing problems with the housing market under pressure and the major Evergreen defaulting on a 4 billion yuan payment which is putting pressure on the Chinese Yuan and Chinese equities which is also spilling into European and US markets.
Oil continues to hold at higher levels even though it is somewhat softer the last few days. Some economists have warned if oil exploration in the US is not more heavily invested in then there is risk of an under supply and prices pushed past $120 and even as high as $150.
Some favourite stock picks this week are still short ideas on UAL from Rory as higher fuel costs and potential for lower fares coupled with lower demand could impact top and bottom line. Jonathan is keeping an eye on MSFT to see whether their latest investment into the AI race will allow the stock to find some support.
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Jonathan and Rory dive into the facts to help understand if there will be a global recession coming soon? The blokes share their opinions on the future outlook across a global level.
In the podcast, they mention how we have avoided a crash in the economy despite higher interest rates and the cost of living crisis.
Rory discusses what caused inflation in the first place as well as some home truths to why wages unfortunately will never catch up with prices, even in the long run.
The blokes also talk about how different geopolitical events can impact countries and how this filters down into markets and what traders need to be aware of.
Understanding that there are always three sides to any story is the key to understanding the market. All media across the world is biased towards an opinion or agenda but only the truth will allow you a clear vision to best predict the future.
Rory explains it is up to you to decide on what information to listen to, plus the importance of listening to all sides and how this can be brought back to trading.
Download the TBT APP now to chat LIVE with the Blokes!
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In this episode, Jonatan and Rory discuss how the DXY is on a 8 week winning streak, could it make a ninth?
The blokes analyse some last weeks action in markets including, the US CPI print coming in hotter than expected along with the influence it had on Equities and FX pairs last week, plus the impact it could have on the FOMC this Wednesday.
The Blokes also talk about how the ECB increased rates another 25bps to 4% and signalled to the market that they are likely done while they also revised up inflation forecasts, while lowering growth for 2023 and 2024.
This week in markets, the Fed interest rate decision is on Wednesday night and Rory talks us through what to listen out for including, what their inflation forecast will look like, what the FOMC expects in terms of growth, as well as their expectations of interest rates within the speeches and the all-important Dot Plot.
EU stocks have dropped off following the decline on wall street on Friday and Société general dropped 11% after the bank cut its outlook on profitability.
The Blokes also offer their thoughts on the BOE interest rate decision due on Thursday & the effect this could have on the GBP/USD pair! Goldman Sachs expect it to be the last hike. Some expect FTSE100 to lag global stocks next year however with the index already undervalued and oil prices increasing, could the giants such as BP and Shell look to hold the index higher?
Rory and Jonatan also talk through Netflix and United Airlines & why these two stocks are on their watchlist for this week.
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In this podcast we introduce Rajan Dhall & discuss the mindset of a successful trader. Raj has an extensive history and career in trading adding further value to our community, which we discuss in the podcast.
Rajan talks about trading psychology and the importance of it and describes how retail traders can become better traders by simply switching their mindset. He also talks about how retail traders can develop their own strategy around a work life balance. Raj also talks about what got him into trading, sharing his very interesting story of how his journey started as a fitness trainer at J.P Morgan.
Jonathan shares his thoughts on how retail traders battle with the psychology of trading & how traders can adapt a trading style that suits the individual. Jonathan also shares his journey of this and how he overcame the process. Jonathan firmly believes anyone can become successful in trading regardless of their background, once they are willing to learn, have the right information & follow the right process.
Raj also talks about the average success rate of many institutional traders being lower than expected & how this opened up his eyes to change his approach. Raj also discusses matching the process with the personality and the importance this can have on a trader. Ragan offers tips for traders at all stages of their journey, discussing what holds traders back & how to overcome this.
Rajan will now be sharing his analysis, ideas & expertise in the two blokes trading app, for our community.
Download the FREE Two Blokes Trading APP now!
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In this episode, the blokes offer their opinion on the markets, taking a close look to see will Dollar strength continue with a busy economic calendar ahead!
Rory and Jonathan talk about their expectations of markets ahead of the US CPI and FOMC Interest rate decision next week.
The past week in financial markets has been a lot quitter than usual on a data front with the UK labour market conditions being reported slightly higher on Thursday Morning. On Wednesday 13th, the US CPI is due to be released and could change how the outlook is on broader markets.
Starting with European Indices, they have been weaker ahead of the ECB interest rate decision. Negative data has German Dax down as traders brace for the ECB policy decision on Thursday. While the German investor moral is slightly higher in September, Wholesale prices continued their decline dropping by 2.7%.
The US dollar and DXY seen natural resistance at 105 which was expected ahead of the key CPA data and FOMC interest rate hike next week. Rory shares his thoughts on how this data could shape the DXY stating a higher than expected CPI will likely move DXY higher well above 105 towards 106, whereas a lower than expected will see some cooling. He also thinks an inline reading will still be enough to drive DXY back above 105 as it will be 2 consecutive months of higher CPI reading which may give the FOMC a credible cautious but hawkish stance.
Jonathan also talks us through his thoughts on Gold and the Dollar. Jonathan remains bullish on Dollar, while he would expect Gold to fall potentially below 1900 again and towards 1870.
Tune into the podcast to hear the full rundown.
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In this episode Jonathan and Rory discuss the well known statistic, why only 20% of traders make money. At the beginning of the podcast Jonathan runs through some statistics of the probability of footballers and golfers making it to a professional level.
Jonathan and Rory both share their experiences of what’s helped them throughout their trading journey, most notable having a mentor.
The blokes discuss with the growth of social media, there are now many charlatan traders, promoting their services to help other traders when they can’t trade properly themselves.
Rory also shared some thoughts about his University experience, how people are committed to 3 year degrees at University to then only be considered for further training whether that’s law, accounting etc.
Whatever job or profession you would like to do, it requires time to learn & refine the skill. Sometimes making mistakes along the way, the key is to learn from your mistakes & remain focused on the objective.
Therefore taking trading as a profession or a part-time job, it involves a similar process of training and learning and then practice the application. Everyone’s journey won’t be as much as 3 years but with hard work and commitment it can be vastly reduced, especially if you have the right mentor.
To summaries, how can you become one of the 20% of successful traders?
Commitment – Never stop learning
Preparation – Analyse before you execute
Discipline – Risk management & Psychology (Stay Objective)
Reflection – Always look to improve (Journal)
Mentorship – Learn from real professionals
To find our more on the confluences of the top percentile of traders and professionals, stay tuned to this weeks podcast.
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For the 7th consecutive week, the Dollar Index finished in the green closing above 104 to show strong support, the question is will the DXY hit 105?
Jonathan and Rory both discuss their thoughts on dollar going into a quieter week than usual for economic data however the market will only be gearing up for what’s to come next week as the US CPI is due to be released. A hawkish release could see another strong dollar and the push to 105 whereas a dovish release could see DXY fall lower.
In Indices, US markets were closed on Monday following the labor day holiday. European indices had a strong start to the day but later in the session fell-off due to stronger efforts from China to support the property sector faded.
Jonathan talks about his views on GBPUSD, AUDUSD & USDJPY with his predispositions being short on both GBPUSD & AUDUSD pairs, as he is still bullish on Dollar. Both pairs are stuck in somewhat of a range but Jonathan thinks especially Euro has further to fall. Jonathan also believes there's further upside potential for USDJPY. Ones to watch!
The Blokes then offer their views on Gold & Oil. Both Rory & Jonathan agree that Gold upside maybe limited due to Dollar strength, whereas Oil has potential for further upside.
Jonathan also mentions how September can be a bearish month for stocks with negative returns so buying stocks may not be the perfect time according to past data. However he does mention, retail traders are not limited as most CFD products allow traders to short and still profit from the move.
There is so much analysis and information available on our app so make sure to join for free today at app.twoblokestrading.com
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In this podcast, Jonathan and Rory talk about the 8th wonder of the world, Compound Interest.
This is a term a lot of people are familiar with but not many are able to use it to their benefit. At the beginning of the podcast, Rory tells us a story of friend who had money saved away for years which grew exponentially but one day decided it was enough and wanted to buy a car. If they had waited another 15 years the money wouldn’t have doubled to buy 2 cars, but instead would have been over half a million!
Jonathan then explains how compound interest and the power of it can be used in trading. He Explains that by having a small account and achieving just 2% each week that the numbers will compound weekly. In less than a decade you could be trading with more than half a million, starting with as little as €5000.
The blokes explain that Compound interest usually “doesn’t work” until the later stages as 10% of 1 isn’t much but when it’s 10% of 1 million, that’s when people think “it works” the gains have stayed constant, but the variable change is only in the nominal amount.
The most important lesson to learn from compound interest is to stay consistent and not chase losses. Consistency will get you further than taking unnecessary risks and focusing on the short term. Jonathan also explains that too many traders focus on the short-term goals and not the long-term goals.
Make sure to join our free app today to learn more about trading and investing and join the fastest growing network. www.app.twoblokestrading.com
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In this podcast , Jonathan and Rory talk about their predictions on the financial markets, looking at Dollar, Dax, Gold, Oil, Apple, and major FX pairs. There is a busy week ahead with high impact data releases including, NFP, US PCE which could give some hints around the next inflation. (CPI) reading as well as thoughts on how the FOMC will react at the next monetary policy committee meeting in September. A higher number will indicate potential further increases to monetary policy and a stronger dollar led by weaker equities and bonds.
Oil on the other hand has experienced a slight pull back following a 45 degree incline during July as demand was strong and supply levels from OPEC could be impacted due to production cuts.
In FX, The Euro has been declining steadily and Rory discusses his great short trades on the pair last week, he talks us through why he shorted it and what he is focusing on going forward. Rory also talks about his reasoning for being neutral on Cable but still bullish on USDJPY as there may be a chance, we don’t see an intervention from the BoJ.
For more analysis, join the fastest growing trading and investing network for free today app.twoblokestrading.com
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In this podcast Jonathan and Rory talk about how to build a trading strategy and what to focus on when it comes to technical, fundamentals and sentiment analysis.
Jonathan discusses at the beginning of the podcast that too many new traders focus on technical analysis to generate trade ideas and solely rely on the charts for entries and exits. In this episode , he talks us through his reasoning of using technical analysis and how he combines fundamentals with sentiment to find trade ideas.
Rory also shares his thoughts on how to use statistical analysis as well as fundamentals to generate ideas whether it be in equities or forex. He explains the process of understanding economics as well as the value chain to identify ideas. When it comes to stop losses and profit levels, Rory is keen on using a more quantitative approach and encourages anyone to ask him more about it especially if they are interested in quantitative trading.
In the podcast Jonathan also mentions some resources that new traders can use to help gain an edge such as books in technical analysis which Include “technical analysis of the financial markets” written by John J Murphy. This is a great resource which shows the concepts and application of technical analysis within the markets.
As always, the best way to learn is to ask questions and challenge everything, no matter how stupid it may seem. This is Rory’s best advice to anyone who wants to construct a better approach to their strategy when trading and everyone is encouraged to ask questions through the app, after all that’s why it’s there. It’s free so join using the link below
App.twoblokestrading.com
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Jonathan and Rory discuss their thoughts on current Dollar Strength ahead of Jackson hole. Plus Fed chair, Jerome Powell due to speak on Thursday.
The economic calendar is due to be light until then but with some shockwaves from recent events, there could still be some volatility left in markets.
Rory discusses his thoughts on the dollar and how he sees 104.50 being the upper bound for now until more supportive data allows for price to continue. This is while EURUSD continues in the downtrend.
Jonathan shares his ideas with GBPUSD and the sideways action that’s been happening. For very short term intra day traders there has been strong support and resistance trading zone he says but for longer term directional traders, the volatility is non existent.
Jonathan and Rory both agree that while on Monday morning, European equities were driven higher by German PPI data, the strong sentiment in markets is what will continue to drive European risk assets lower for the time being.
For more analysis, join the fastest growing trading community for free today….
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Too many traders are told “it’s about psychology” but what they aren’t told is the truth behind psychology. In this episode, Jonathan and Rory breakdown the truth behind trading psychology, as well as sharing some of their best tips when trading and investing.
The word psychology in trading is thrown around too loosely, understanding how to adopt an objective approach while trading will immediately give you an edge. If you have good risk management, then psychology around trading reduces significantly.
During the episode, Rory mentions that too many traders don’t focus on risk adjusted returns I.e. how much risk you take to profit. Too many traders focus on absolute numbers rather than the statistics themselves and while it may seem rational and reasonable, often it’s not favourable. Make sure to ask Rory any questions around probability, statistics, or portfolio performance in the app!
Jonathan also lets us in on how he remains in focus throughout his trading career. He highlights that you are not always going to get it right, so accepting a loss is part of trading you have to accept. Once you accept this, you can control & minimise your losses, allowing you to focus on your winning trades. Too many traders hold on to losses in the hope the market will swing in their favour. Always refer to this quote “the market will remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent”. Jonathan explains his systematic process that traders should follow in order to achieve consistency and not deviate off course. Listen in to hear his techniques.
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In this episode the Blokes discuss the current risk off sentiment in the markets & look at recent events impacting price action. This includes the latest US PPI and US CPI reports which both came out higher than previous. The complications that higher inflation can have on the economy is something Rory has discussed throughout the podcast and explains in this episode.
Jonathan also talks us through his thoughts on the US Dollar. Today with little data to move the markets we saw the Dollar strengthen as the risk-off mood continues in the market. Jonathan recaps todays moves in FX pairs with Key levels to watch out for. Jonathan looks at levels we may reach in the DXY & how this could effect other USD pairs, talking us through his reasoning along with his view on the current horizon.
Rory offers his view on Crude Oil with all factors looking like a continued rally to the upside. He then goes on to describe the correlation between Oil & the Canadian Dollar explaining how one effects the other.
Rory then offers his opinion on Gold after closing a profitable trade today with major support levels coming into play. Rory also talks about the events upcoming in markets this week. As earnings season is drawing to a close a lack of economic data on Monday led to a muted session and the calendar is limited for the remainder of the week with UK inflation and US Building permits on Wednesday. The FTSE100 has been struggling the last few weeks so all UK investors will be watching the data closely for any clues on what the BOE may be doing next.
Jonathan and Rory go into a lot more detail on the podcast and within the app so make sure you join one of the fastest growing investing and trading communities today for free!
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In this episode, Jonathan and Rory talk about the future of money. The Blokes share their thoughts on a digital currency being introduced. Rory openly admits that it’s not something he favours and towards the end of the podcast gives his reason for this with a relevant example to how current FX markets work and why they work so well.
If governments do try to introduce a digital currency what will the narrative be? Will the public accept this change & is there anything we can do to stop it? Or could this be for the greater good, would a digital currency reduce crime & have further benefits? Either way it seems that we are becoming more restricted by the powers in control.
Jonathan talks us through his concerns to what will support a digital currency. Will it be pegged to a commodity, a currency or exactly how it would work. In a time where technology is advancing, governments want to see an introduction to digital currencies however, what would that mean to the general public & how could this effect the future of transactions.
Will we move to a new way of exchange? Rory believes we could go back to bartering with commodities such as gold or silver. However, Jonathan believes this will accelerate the use of Crypto currencies.
Be sure to listen and find out what both Jonathan and Rory have to say…
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In this episode Jonathan and Rory talk about recent events in the markets and what their opinions are going forward. The Blokes take a look over FX, commodities, indices & Stocks. The hot topic was APPLE loosing $200 billion in market cap in less than a week, the blokes offer their opinion in the future direction of APPLE stocks.
A highlight from last week was the downgrade of US debt by ratings agency Fitch’s where US debt was downgraded from AAA to AA+. This sparked some initial selling in the market, but Rory reiterated in the podcast that he doesn’t think this single event will cause anymore selling.
On the Tuesday morning news released also stated that another ratings agency, Moody’s had downgraded US small and mid-size lenders which added pressure to financials. This was on top of the Italian government announcing a surprise 40% windfall tax on extra profits.
Looking ahead into the week, Jonathan takes us through his prediction for the US dollar and the CPI report due to be released on Thursday. Forecasts expect inflation to rise to 3.3% on a year over year basis from July 2022. This reacceleration is nothing to worry markets & we should see little impact as a result. Oil and energy markets have been moving higher so the possibility of reacceleration has been priced in. What has not been priced in, is a trend of reacceleration of inflation back to higher levels which would cause the monetary policy committee to continue hiking rates perhaps above 6%. If this was the case, a very strong dollar could be expected.
Rory also talks through recent earnings and the downgrades we have been seeing as well as the outlook for Apple as they have been struggling in the last few sessions and broke a major trendline.
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