Episodes
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to get into markets including whether the memory stock run (including Micron) is over or just taking a pause. Then, they look at the strength of the US Dollar and whether that is a major headwind while oil prices seem like they are done worrying about the Strait of Hormuz. Later, the case for and against the Fed LOWERING rates this year vs the consensus view that they need to tighten. Oh yeah, and they get Derek talking again about Bitcoin and Strategy, the resilient employment numbers, ISM prices paid are dropping, and market seasonality.
Did Michael Saylor compare Strategy's perpetual preferred shares to a 3-month treasury?
Bitcoin winter
The case for and against the Fed CUTTING rates
Strong employment numbers
ISM prices paid and oil prices are dropping
Market seasonality and how July historically goes
The market seems to have forgotten about the Straight of Hormuz
Above all else its earnings, but at what multiple, and at what net profit margin?
Micron, SanDisk, and the memory stocks turn over so what's next?
Getting into earnings seasons once again
US Dollar strength so what's the problem?
US Dollar zone of insignificance and when it is significant
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week where they'll
discuss Micron's earnings announcement and subsequent stock price changes and
free cash flow. Is that where all the hyperscalers cash is heading? Plus, the latest
geo-political goings on including tracking the number of tankers in the Strait of
Hormuz. Are the Fed dot plot predictions (expectations) really as useless as they
same? Don't forget the guys got Derek talking about Bitcoin and Strategy again.
Finally, looking at some bull and bear cases for the equity markets.
What are the Hyperscalers?
Strait of Hormuz tanker tracker
Michael Saylors Bitcoin problem
Bitcoin sentiment
Micron implied volatility
Micron's earnings and forward multiples
Cash flow on the Mag 7 vs Micron
Fed dot plots
What the Fed dot plots predicted in December 2020 vs what actually happened 2021-2022
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Missing episodes?
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to get into the post Kevin Warsh Fed Presser reaction. Plus, leading economic indicators (LEI) are turning bullish? Then, they talk about the options action in SpaceX including how high is the implied volatility. Odds and ends this week include discussion on MicroStrategy's preferred STRC has dropped below its par value.
SpaceX implied volatility in its options
Kevin Warsh FED press conference
Kevin Warsh says no dot for you!
LEI leading economic indicator
MicroStrategy (Strategy) preferred issue #STRC
Difference between a peg to par vs. trying to see it at par
Word count in FED statement Warsh vs Powell
10 Year Treasury yields vs Nominal GDP growth rate YoY
Oil prices continue to ease
Analysts keep their earnings estimates strong for the forward 12 month period
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to discuss some wild SpaceX price predictions and review day 1 of trading. Then, they discuss what the implied volatility and options pricing will be like once SpaceX options are available. Then they make the case that oil has seen its peak and the bull and bear case going forward. Later, they look at the 2-day correction before the markets decided none of the things that mattered matter anymore.
SpaceX day one price and predictions going forward
SpaceX options coming next week
Implied volatility expectations for SpaceX options
Is the correction over?
2-day correction
Oil futures curve
US government is using oil price swaps selling out of the SPR
What does it mean to use oil swaps?
Hot IPO post launch performance
What does history say SpaceX price will be in 30 days?
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to react to the market Friday selloff including many of the chip and memory stocks. What is driving this and has the oil trade decoupled from equities? Then they discuss SpaceX IPO pricing at $135, the strong jobs numbers that exceeded estimates including April being revised from negative to healthy positive number, and Michael Saylor sells some Bitcoin for Strategy. All this and more this week.
SpaceX IPO price
Saylor sells Bitcoin for Strategy
Crypto out of favor judging by the ETF fund flows
S&P 500 Index Friday selloff of -2.6% after continuous march higher
Semis and memory stocks hit with many pulling back ~ -20% from all-time highs
Oil was down but the market didn't care today
More Oil supply coming online?
Fed futures pricing in a rate hike by December
Tough to time when to sell a highflyer
Will investors hit the sell button thinking this is the turn?
Greenshoe IPO provision
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner this week to talk about the typical IPO performance within the first 30 days of trading. Then, they compare how Google vs Tesla performed after their IPOs. Later, Goldman Sachs calls for 8000 by year in in the S&P 500 Index, how May has seen stellar returns last couple years, a bunch of ETF filings for SpaceX adjacent products, and surprising forward EPS valuations.
Nvidia forward PE vs Costco and Walmart
Google vs Tesla IPO performance
Surprising Google State Post IPO
SpaceX adjacent ETFs see a lot of filings
How does this IPO issuance period compare to past ones?
When day 100 is up nearly 10% what does the rest of the year historically look like?
Bond vs Equity Valuations
S&P 500 May Performance 1945-2026
Intel vs Nvidia
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to get into the SpaceX S-1 including their revenues and earnings revealed. Plus, comparing the fever for SpaceX IPO to the dotcom era in the late nineties. Then, looking at Nvidia earnings and looking at its price to sales vs SpaceX. Later, what people thought the market would return over the last 10 years vs what it actually has returned. All this and more this week.
Nvidia price to sales vs SpaceX price to sales based on reported initial IPO market cap
Will SpaceX get into the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index?
Requirements for a stock to be included in the S&P 500 Index
SpaceX S-1 filing review including revenue and earnings
What is the lockup period for the SpaceX IPO?
Comparing SpaceX S-1 to Google and Amazon's
Comparing this IPO cycle to the late nineties
Nvidia earnings
What will the implied volatility be on SpaceX options once they are made available
Public service announcement about investing in IPOs
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to discuss the upcoming Nvidia earnings through the prism of the option volatility levels. Then, they look at inflation, GDP, and markets vs expectations. Later, looking at the interest rate predictions and the likelihood of cuts vs raises with Kevin Warsh now at the helm. Finally, looking at the oil futures curve and what the back end says about where people think oil will price to eventually.
Nvidia earnings predictions
Nvidia option implied volatility and expected moves around earnings
Pricing the Nvidia straddle
Future interest rate probabilities
Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed
Oil futures swap curve
Inflation sticky or not?
Atlanta Fed GDP Now
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss markets and the economy including Ryan Cohen's awkward CNBC interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin where he was pressed on the math behind the financing in GameStop's bid for EBAY. Plus, Micron again reaches an all-time high and still is trading at forward multiples below many other stocks. Later, is this year shaping up to be 1995 or something else? Finally, whether oil prices are reaching a pivot point looking at some technical analysis.
Ryan Cohen CNBC interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin and Becky Quick
GameStop trying to buy EBAY
Does GameStop have the funding to do this purchase?
Secondary offerings and dilution to shareholders
Micron new all-time high
Crude Oil WTI West Texas Intermediate Head and Shoulders Pattern
Bearish technical patterns and reliability
Comparing spaghetti chart of stock market annual paths
1995 vs 2026 stock chart
Midterm election year stock market typical returns
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner exploring whether the economy via the LEI (Leading Economic Indicator) is flashing bearish signals. Then, they run through Micron, Intel, and Apple looking at relative valuations and what analysts are predicting. Later, they review some post earnings moves and volatility (or lack thereof). Plus, why do people think the Fed has a chance to raise rates?
Micron vs Apple relative forward PE ratios
Micron's forward PE is really low, but why?
Intel continues its parabolic run
What is the LEI Leading Economic Indicator
Weights within the LEO
How sentiment is super low and how it impacts LEI
Powell wraps up his last meeting but he's not leaving?
Does Warsh get rate cuts
Lots of dissent within the Fed?
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to talk about semiconductors and the relative surprising performance of Intel vs Nvidia. Plus, they examine forward PE ratios and how stocks making new all-time highs might have gotten cheaper on a valuation basis. Later, the news reports of a person scamming prediction markets for weather using a hair dryer. Finally, it's a huge earnings week so the gang has you covered looking at what the option markets are predicting for expected moves based on implied volatility.
Intel vs Nvidia relative performance
Did Intel get cheaper on a valuation basis?
Semiconductors apparently keep going higher
Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Google, and Amazon earnings are all this week
Report that someone used a hair dryer on a temperature sensor in Paris to win prediction
The problems with prediction markets and whether they have any place in investments
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner commenting on the stock market's breakout to new all-time highs. With earnings estimates, earnings reports, and sentiment shifting higher the market looks forward. Did investors get too bearish? Looking at Tesla's upcoming earnings via their implied volatility and 1-standard deviation expected move higher or lower. All this and more this week.
Yup, we are back at all-time highs
7000 the new floor in the S&P 500 Index?
Earnings analysts raise estimates again
So far so good earnings season
Tesla implied volatility shows what the expected range through earnings is
Did investors get too bearish, causing them to miss out by selling at the recent bottom?
Why its difficult to time markets
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to discuss the all-time low in consumer sentiment and what if anything it means for markets. By the way, who exactly are they getting to stay on the phone for 50 questions? Then they discuss Exxon vs Salesforce performance since the CRM replaced XOM in the Down Jones Index. Plus, secular bull markets have pullbacks so are we still in one now?
Consumer confidence all-time low
Does Consumer Sentiment indicator from UMich forecast stock movements?
Semiconductor forward earnings growth is predicted to be strong
S&P 500 Index earnings seasons is upon us
Exxon got replaced by Salesforce in the Down but since then CRM is trailing XOM
Geopolitical volatility
Why the Fed probably still cuts and the stock market is seeing through the clutter
US Dollar Index peeled back from recent highs so is that good for earnings?
Sarcastic discussion on who the heck is answering survey calls
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at the bull case vs. the bear case in markets. Plus, which company the gang is most looking forward to seeing what their earnings release shows and how the big tech names are all cheaper on a forward valuation basis. Why doesn't the market always go up when earnings grow? Now people are tracking sailings in the Strait of Hormuz. Later, examining whether Friday's recovering from a rough open is a good sign for markets or just an anomaly.
Strait of Hormuz ship tracking
Earnings growth vs the market return in a given year
Odd to see the market down while earnings revisions have grown positively +8%
Nvidia vs Microsoft for who everyone is most looking forward to earnings wise
SpaceX files for an IPO but we'll have to wait on the S-1 release
Market bull and bear case
Mentioned in this Episode
Article with Peter Lynch video link plus forward valuation charts on the market, Nvidia, and Exxon. https://zegainvestments.com/blog/is-the-market-getting-cheaper-or-just-early-ahead-of-analyst-revisions
Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509
Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss how the news sounds worse than the markets have performed so far. What Peter Lynch famous 1994 speech tells us about market declines and corrections. Plus, really? The Fed Funds futures are now pricing in higher probability of rate hikes vs rate cuts. Finally, the Mag 7 seems to be on sale, so what needs to happen for them to start leading the market back to the highs?
Peter Lynch on market corrections
Mag 7 valuations are getting cheap relative to where they were
Fed Rate hikes, really?
Volatility in markets
Why is the VIX higher?
The news is worse than the markets retracement so far, but will that change?
Mentioned in this Episode
Article with Peter Lynch video link plus forward valuation charts on the market, Nvidia, and Exxon. https://zegainvestments.com/blog/is-the-market-getting-cheaper-or-just-early-ahead-of-analyst-revisions
Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509
Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner where they get into a discussion around the market moving lower, lowering the forward PE, and analysts haven't budged their estimates yet. So, who's right and who's wrong? Then they go through the volatility environment and whether this is a normal midterm year pullback reminding everyone this is pretty typical. Later, they get into Arizona suing Kalshi and whether prediction markets (or betting) belong under the CFTC.
Vix and VVIX
Volatility in markets
CFTC as regulator of prediction markets
Who needs prediction markets?
Arizona sues Kalshi
Forward PE multiples drop
While EPS forward estimates rise
When will analysts start adjusting their EPS estimates?
What are breakeven inflation rates
Why breakeven rates historically haven't been a great predictor of future inflation
Mentioned in this Episode
Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509
Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss how a strong dollar, high oil prices, and the normal midterm year market cycle are dominating the talk around the stock market. If there was no Iran conflict, would the market be in the same spot? Later, looking at the options markets on Micron before next week's earnings. Finally, why the Strait of Hormuz is causing supply issues.
Straight of Hormuz oil tanker conundrum
Oil and the US Dollar jump and why it may not be good news for earnings
Implied Volatility on Micron
Pricing the long and short straddles on Micron
Midterm Year Market Cycles and how this compares
Talking about the movies Margin Call and The Big Short
Mentioned in this Episode
Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509
Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to riff on volatility surging including VIX and VVIX. What volatility changes mean to market makers having to sell or buy more shares to hedge. Later, examine the largest 1 week surge in oil historically and where last week ranks. Plus, asking if OpenAI will wind up being the winner or more like Netscape. All this and more this week.
OpenAI vs other AI companies as the eventual winner
Explaining what VVIX is in relation to the VIX
Why changes in volatility cause market makers to have to sell or buy shares of underlying
Energy sector was the contrarian pick hiding in plain site
Green shoots that this selloff will end?
The Fed and interest rates
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to explain how the market just got cheaper on a forward valuation standpoint. Plus, how Nvidia EPS estimates reached a new all-time high while the stock trends sideways. Later, comparing Salesforce and Exxon, where they look at a multiple expansion vs a multiple contraction. Finally, they delve into an increase in the near-term volatility skew, and the hot PPI numbers.
What is volatility skew
Salesforce vs Exxon
Nvidia goes sideways even though earnings and sales estimates reach new highs
What does it me when stocks forward multiples contract (rerate)
Getting into the PPI release
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the market reaction. Plus, looking at what the options market is predicting for Nvidia post earnings moves. Later, WTI oil prices moving higher, did the energy sector bull run predict this? Finally, breaking down the GDP release and whether the baring the government shutdown, GDP would have been higher. All this and more this week.
GDP release and breakdown
No inflation from tariffs
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs
What other justifications Trump admin can use to still impose tariffs
WTI West Texas Intermediate crude price catches a bid
Nvidia earnings this week come out so what is the option market predicting?
Nvidia implied volatility and straddle prices
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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