Episodes
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Robots are here, and they’re going to change the world, with Unitree currently in pole position. Joining me to discuss are Niko Ciminelli, longtime SemiAnalysis advisor, robot kid and VC along with Reyk Knuhtsen, robotics lead at SemiAnalysis. Lily Ottinger cohosts.
Our conversation covers:
Why robots are the real general-purpose technology because, for the first time in history, we can decouple capital from human labor.
How everyone keeps underestimating Unitree: the DJI and BYD playbooks, the danger of dismissing “robot dogs,” and why iteration speed matters more than dancing demos.
China’s edge: vertical integration, actuator manufacturing, and supply chains that make Chinese humanoids much cheaper than American ones.
Why you can’t AI your way out of a hardware problem or from a supply chain that makes your robot far more expensive to build.
What America should do next: allied supply chains, special economic zones, and industrial policy.
suno song: https://suno.com/s/EBSxwT7ltOerJJGD
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Welcome to another installment of the ChinaTalk radio show! Today, we’re diving into Taiwan’s war on green energy.
Shenanigans abound in this episode, including:
The lights-out scenario — Taiwan only holds 11 days of LNG reserves, and 97% of the island's energy is imported, but the ruling party phased out nuclear and botched the renewable rollout anyway.
The offshore wind graveyard — how made-in-Taiwan components drove developers to abandon the world's best offshore wind sites,
The Taipower unbundling reversal — and the Kafkaesque system that keeps electricity prices dirt cheap despite the Iran war.
“Green energy cockroaches” — why corruption is Taiwan's dirtiest secret, and how the Taiwanese public came to associate renewables with scandal,
The nuclear U-turn — How President Lai Ching-te walked back forty years of "Non-Nuclear Homeland" orthodoxy to restart Taiwan’s nuclear reactors.
A transcript of this show with embedded source links is available on the ChinaTalk substack.
This episode was produced by Lily Ottinger and Aqib Zakaria. Special thanks to "Jason Feng," Angelica Oung, Ricky Huang, Tsaiying Lu (DSET), and Yu-Hsuan Yeh (formerly of CSIS and DSET) for their time and expertise. Everyone's views are their own and don't represent any organization.
If you want to learn more, check out Angelica's ongoing work on her two Substacks, Taipology and Elemental Energy. You can also check out Ricky's two podcasts, where he hosts cross-partisan debates about energy policy and more.
"Jason's" voice was anonymized with ElevenLabs' text-to-speech tools.
Finally, we know Angelica is a controversial figure, but we decided to interview her because, on energy policy specifically, her views are shared by a not-insubstantial portion of the Taiwanese public. [See: this poll which reported that 59% of the Taiwanese public didn't feel confident that Lai’s administration could protect Taiwan from power outages, and this poll from June 2025 that shows a near-even split in public opinion for and against the non-nuclear homeland policy.]
Outro song lyrics:
「燈火 Taiwan」
(Lights of Taiwan)
[Verse 1]
The AC stopped humming on August day eight
Aunties in the market, no fan on their face
Eleven days of gas, forty-two of coal
Then the island goes dark, and the story gets old
O-lóng-mn̂g, o-lóng-mn̂g (黑黑暗暗, pitch black)
We knew this would come, but we looked away
[Pre-Chorus]
Forty years they said hūi-hi̍k (非核, non-nuclear)
Forty years of dreaming we could wish it all away
But the strait is a wind tunnel, and the sun still shines
While we burned the future for cheaper times
[Chorus]
Góa ê kò͘-hiong, lí kám ū thêng-thāu?
(我的故鄉, 你敢有聽著? — My homeland, can you hear?)
The Franken-reactor sleeps beneath the hill
Crystal Yang drank the water, but the people got ill
Góa ê kò͘-hiong, lí ài kiàⁿ-khí-lâi
(我的故鄉, 你愛起來 — My homeland, you must rise)
Not nuclear OR green — we need both to survive
[Verse 2]
Round 3.1, Round 3.2, localization chains
RWE went home, EnBW felt the pain
Yunlin's turbines turning, three times the cost
While the lūi-chhù (綠能蟑螂, green cockroaches) ate what we lost
Behind the meter, batteries wait
Zero price auction — we sealed our own fate
[Pre-Chorus]
Taipower's black box, CPI's lie
TSMC pays more so the auntie don't cry
But the data centers can't grow, AI waits at the door
While we argue if nuclear is sin or chó͘ (善或惡, good or evil)
[Chorus]
Góa ê kò͘-hiong, lí kám ū thêng-thāu?
The Franken-reactor sleeps beneath the hill
Crystal Yang drank the water, but the people got ill
Góa ê kò͘-hiong, lí ài kiàⁿ-khí-lâi
Not nuclear OR green — we need both to survive
[Bridge]
(Spoken, over soft piano)
March 22nd, 2026
Lai Ching-te said the words nobody wanted to hear
Kò͘-hiong needs power
Not slogans, not pride, not forty years of fear
[Final Chorus]
Góa ê kò͘-hiong, lí kám ū thêng-thāu?
The blockade is coming, the Hormuz is closed
Spot market gas at 140% — who knows?
Góa ê kò͘-hiong, lí ài kiàⁿ-khí-lâi
Distributed and hardened, let the sun and wind rise
With nuclear beside them — open both your eyes
[Outro]
O-lóng-mn̂g, mài koh o-lóng-mn̂g
(黑黑暗暗, 莫閣黑黑暗暗 — Darkness, don't be dark again)
Kiàⁿ-khí-lâi, Tâi-oân
(起來, 台灣 — Rise up, Taiwan)
Kiàⁿ-khí-lâi...
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Missing episodes?
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Jack Murphy — former special forces and Ranger Regiment, co-founder of The Team House, and author of the new novel The Most Dangerous Man — joins WarTalk to talk about the strangest corners of special operations history and what the war on terror generation does next. Jordan is joined by hosts Tony Stark, Justin, and Bryan Clark.
We discuss…
Why the military selects its generals like a company that promotes its best plant manager to CFO — and why the people you'd actually want as leaders are quietly opting out
The Green Light teams: the suicidal one-way logic of hand-delivered nuclear demolition, from the Fulda Gap to mountain passes in Iran
The difference between a Ranger tab and the Ranger Regiment — and why "is he a real Ranger" is a perennial fight every time a candidate runs for Congress
Battlefield medicine as live experimentation — walking blood banks, French plasma you had to sign a waiver for, and why a stateside paramedic needs a doctor's permission to do what a SOF medic does on instinct
The tech-CEO-as-villain premise behind The Most Dangerous Man, Nick Land's archaeofuturism, and the disturbing real Sarajevo "safari" case winding through the Italian courts
The SOF celebrity-industrial complex — Lone Survivor, Joe Rogan, Tim Kennedy, January 6th, and the cultural fallout of two failed wars we haven't begun to reckon with
suno song: https://suno.com/s/Nw18Ns8p0CK9Blrd
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Earlier this year, we ran an essay contest on economic security. We gave entrants two prompts: What are the most important high level KPIs that policy should aim for? What is the analogy of the Fed’s ’2% inflation and full employment’ target for economic security? Where today would you put $10-50bn to get the most for your investment in economic security? Feel free to propose both defensive and offensive ideas, and either a portfolio of ideas or the one large idea you think will deliver the most value.We ended up with a literal four-way tie for first place, with each judge giving a different essay top marks. We heard from Farrell Gregory earlier about how to spend rare earths money, and here, we’ll be spotlighting the three others who went into the framework question.Joining us today — Jahara Matisek, a lieutenant colonel in the Air Force and fellow at the U.S. Naval War College; Naveen Krishnan at the Belfer Center and an intel officer in the Navy Reserve; and Guy Ward Jackson, senior policy analyst at the Tony Blair Institute in London. No one is speaking for the Air Force, the Navy, Harvard, the Naval War College, the Tony Blair Institute, or the Department of War. I’m speaking for ChinaTalk.Our conversation covers: Why economic security is really an insurance problem — you’re paying people to keep factories warm, workers trained, and capacity idle for a war that may never come — and why no democracy likes paying that bill. Why the U.S. can’t China-proof its economy alone — the case for a distributed allied industrial base and using allied leverage and counter-coercion as an offensive tool. What $6 billion and four years bought in artillery production, why it still wasn’t enough, and how Patriot missile economics expose the danger of having exquisite weapons without industrial depth. Why you can’t science your way out of a volume problem — AI, robotics, and frontier R&D are caffeine, but the U.S. is still short on food and water.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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To discuss, we have Farrell Gregory, a researcher at the Foundation for American Innovation and winner of ChinaTalk’s Economic Security essay competition, and Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies who authored Beijing’s critical raw material weapon – and how to dismantle it. Co-hosting is ChinaTalk’s Aqib Zakaria.
Our conversation covers...
China’s critical mineral weapon — How Beijing turned its dominance over rare earths into a tool of economic coercion and why the West is struggling to respond.
25 minerals that actually matter — Why policymakers should focus on the specific materials China can weaponize rather than spreading resources across broad critical mineral lists.
Why subsidies alone won’t fix the problem — How China’s industrial policy, overcapacity, and ability to flood markets make it nearly impossible for Western supply chains to compete without coordinated action.
Reshoring the industrial base — The tradeoffs behind rebuilding domestic capacity: higher end-product costs, environmental NIMBYism, skilled labor shortages, and the need for deeper US-European cooperation.
The next resource race — How defense, AI, robotics, and energy demand are intensifying competition for critical materials and what the future of allied industrial power might look like.
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Ely Ratner, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs and now a principal at the Marathon Initiative, joins Jordan, Bryan Clark, and Justin to make sense of the Iran ceasefire and where US-China competition goes next.
We discuss:
Why the MOU reads as a loss: the blockade comes down first, Iran keeps its missiles and its "nuclear dust," and a younger, harder regime learns it can take American firepower and wield an oil weapon
The "bullshit détente" with Beijing and whether reindustrialization can carry a China-competition message without sounding hawkish
Output metrics over input metrics, the seven-year force-posture problem, and what Ratner wishes he'd moved into the "break glass" category at the Pentagon
RoboCom: the pros and cons of standing up a new combatant command
Plus Crassus at Parthia, and why chasing parades is a bad idea unless you're the ny knicks
suno song: https://suno.com/s/scu8twGj01AIOYSL
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AI will make ideas cheap. What does that mean for sicence?
Charles Yang is a fellow at Renaissance Philanthropies and writes about AI and science here: https://republicofscience.substack.com.
We discuss…
Why AI will crack math but not science, and what Mendel's peas sitting ignored for 60 years says about a model that's smarter than everyone
Why China never caught the West's lone-genius bug, and why that's about to pay off
Tools over ideas, from Warren Weaver's six instruments to the thousands at CERN who proved a Higgs boson three guys took home the Nobel for
How do spend a billion dollars to save higher education
AI, souls, and whether your Claude gets into heaven
Suno song: https://suno.com/s/3Q11kw74vQmH7eLN
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Chris McGuire, former civil servant in State and the Biden White House now at CFR, talk about the export control craziness of these past two weeks.
We discuss:
The 5:21 PM letter that took the world's most powerful model offline
Why the "let it rip" administration pivoted to mandatory AI regulation overnight
The incoherent export-control regime: regs that still say one thing while policy says another
The overseas-subsidiary loophole, the Sunday emergency fix, and the foundry gap still left open
outtro music: https://suno.com/s/UVeDiboPyj0jvIgO
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The NDAA is two thousand pages of strategy, pork, and the occasional genuinely big idea — this year including a new robotics combatant command and the first legislated guardrails on AI in the kill chain. Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, who served in OSD Policy and three terms in the House before joining the Senate Armed Services Committee, joins ChinaTalk to break down what got in, what got voted down, and why markup days are the only two days a year the Senate acts like a functioning institution.
We discuss…
Why NDAA markup is the Senate's best two days of the year — and what it would take to make the rest of the institution work like that,
The AI Guardrails Act, the Anthropic debate, and why no one SecDef or AI company should set the rules for the kill chain,
Her bipartisan bill with Bernie Moreno banning Chinese connected vehicles — and the BYDs now streaming over the Canadian border,
Why Michiganders care deeply about China but not (yet) about Taiwan,
The Democratic playbook if the party flips a chamber in November,
Data ownership, the Midwest's data center revolt, and why a healthy democracy would be talking about AI every single day.
song: https://suno.com/s/HdtwRInfqQsDTVMq
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What a profound honor to have Paul Kennedy on the ChinaTalk podcast. Kennedy is my favorite living historian and the writer who’s most shaped my intellectual development. His analysis underpins what you hear on this show every week.
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers is an epochal work that traces global power transitions from 1500 to the present. It’s gripping, forest-and-trees scholarship at its finest.
Equally impressive in different ways is his book, The Rise of Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860 to 1914. Not only is it god-tier diplomatic history, it also gives you a feel for the era through its explorations of social, economic, domestic, political, and cultural dimensions of Anglo-German relations. There are fascinating US/China analogies that we’ll get into at some point in this podcast.
His two most recent works directly inform the military coverage on China Talk. Engineers of Victory looks at how people and the systems they worked within solved engineering challenges that turned the tide for entire theaters in World War II. His latest, Victory at Sea: Naval Power and the Transformation of Global Order in World War II, is a sweeping history of a radical transformation in the balance of military power, from the mid-1930s when America was just gaining prominence, to after World War II, when it had no other significant naval competitor.
The Parliament of Man: A History of the United Nations first got me interested in international organizations and gave me my senior thesis topic about the creation of the UN.
What Kennedy taught me more than anything is this: sweat the details, look at the individual players, and zoom out often enough to understand what truly shapes the long-term fate of nations.
Over the course of this episode, we pick up themes from all across his work:
Great Power rivalries of the late 19th-early 20th centuries and their echoes today,
Why potential antagonisms turn nice and why others turn belligerent,
The persistent struggles of liberal internationalists and why they rarely get the outcomes they want,
How China today is not Germany of the late 19th and early 20th centuries,
The surprising ways geography shapes global power dynamics,
How fear spreads among nations and why mutual suspicion is so hard to escape,
Why top powers blow it and lose their dominant place in the world,
How systems and innovation win wars.
And much more, including salutary lessons from the Dutch and Swedes on boring yet prosperous futures, how Churchill’s interest in gadgets influenced the course of the Second World War, and why transformative action from the UN remains unlikely in the near future.
Note: we recorded this in 2024.
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Africa is the literal center of the world’s map and increasingly the center of gravity for ISIS, the manpower source for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the contested geopolitical ground where China builds bases and drops off free weapons. Our first active-duty guest pulls back the curtain on a combatant command that runs on 0.1% of the defense budget.
LTG John W. Brennan Jr. is Deputy Commander of U.S. Africa Command and a 30-year career Special Forces officer, with command tours spanning 5th Special Forces Group, the anti-ISIS task force in Syria, and 1st Special Forces Command. He’s joined by ChinaTalk’s Justin, who served under Brennan as a young NCO in the Middle East.
We discuss…
How AFRICOM runs a counter-VEO away game on 0.1% of the defense budget by working “by, with, and through” partners
“Putin’s Purse”: trafficking thousands of Africans onto the Ukrainian front lines under false pretenses
The Houthi–al-Shabaab pipeline and the threat triangle around Djibouti’s PRC naval base
Building an “alternate DIB in exile”: drone centers of excellence in Morocco, South African artillery, Namibian satellite radios
Why Brennan wants to “declare jihad against proprietary data streams” and where AI actually helps a combatant commander decide
WarTalk's first Ivorian dance party suno song: https://suno.com/s/1hhJTtwBn2NGR8eT
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Pope Leo has called AI the single greatest challenge facing humanity. Not war, not poverty, not climate change. So we got a panel together to sort out what this encyclical means.
Joining Jordan are Tim Hwang, deputy director of the Institute for Christian Machine Intelligence, John-Clark Levin of Kurzweil Technologies, and ChinaTalk's resident Catholic, Aqib Zakaria.
We discuss…
Why the encyclical's claim that AI cannot truly "understand" is a narrow theological term of art, and why that nuance gets lost on Twitter
Pope Leo's call to "disarm AI" and the Holy See's potential role mediating between the US and China and speaking for the global South
Tim's pitch for a Vatican alignment lab that buys GPUs and tries to beat Anthropic's benchmarks from Christian first principles
Why frontier-lab researchers, including non-believers, are treating the Pope as a moral coordinating signal
How Anthropic drifting from deontology toward virtue ethics in training Claude looks like a validation of the Christian approach
The provocation underneath all of it: is the American AI stack a Christian AI stack?
pope as chicago footwork: https://suno.com/s/1Qb9Ce3Bh6saeF2V
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How do you evaluate an AI model for a war you can only fight once? Ike Harris, a Naval officer turned Hill staffer turned AI policy operator, joins the show to discuss his effort to bridge the gap between the labs that build frontier models and the operators who'll deploy them.
Ike Harris is the executive director of the newly launched Frontier Security Institute, and was most recently the Republican tech lead on the House Select Committee on the CCP, with prior stints in OSD and as a surface warfare officer.
We discuss…
The GAIN AI and Overwatch acts: and Congress's most aggressive attempt to wrest export-control authority from the executive branch since the Cold War
Why you can't just "buy AI": and why national security evals look nothing like the SWE benchmarks the labs optimize for
Strategic-level evals :for problems you can't run ten times, from Iran negotiations to targeting at the COCOM level
China's robot-army advantage: open-weight models at the edge, Ukraine-style drone iteration soaked up via Russia, and a casualty tolerance the US can't match
The "no more NASA" problem: how risk tolerance, mission command, and law-of-armed-conflict constraints shape who wins the deployment race
Breaking into tech policy: Ike's case for why every aspiring policy person should spend a year on the Hill
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How did Arizona lock in billion-dollar investments from TSMC, Intel, and LG Energy?
Ian O’Grady, Senior Policy Advisor to Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, joins ChinaTalk to share war stories from the state that’s successfully reshoring semiconductor and battery production.
Our conversation covers:
Labor Disputes and Crisis Management — How the Governor’s Office mediates disagreements between stakeholders and keeps workers happy.
Clean Air Act vs. chips — Why Arizona’s fabs struggled to get building permits despite the state’s low per-capita emissions.
Arizona’s Abundance Playbook — Including a consolidated commerce authority, a culture of engineering > litigation, and institutional factors that help Arizona outbuild Ohio and Texas.
Taiwanifying the Desert — How Phoenix welcomed TSMC engineers with Mandarin programs in schools, Din Tai Fung, and a new Costco.
Industrial Policy Resource Wars — How Arizona avoids backlash based on power and water use concerns.
Co-hosting is ChinaTalk researcher Aqib Zakaria.
Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner
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Rob Lee dials in from Ukraine for a long-form WarTalk on what the front line actually looks like in year four — where infantry sit underground for six months without seeing the sun, where 2% of casualties come from small arms, and where the "forward line of troops" has been quietly replaced by a forward line of UAV teams.
Rob Lee is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and one of the most-read analysts of the Russia-Ukraine war; he's joined on the show by WarTalk regulars Bryan Clark, Tony Stark, and Justin.
We discuss…
The six-month infantry rotation and what isolation, drone threat, and zero-line resupply do to a human being
Why Ukraine has reclaimed the drone edge — and what the Hornet, Bumblebee, and FP2 are doing to Russian logistics
Ukraine's new corps structure, where the brigade-only model broke down, and what the Azov-derived elite corps look like
Why 2% of Ukrainian casualties come from small arms and what infantry are actually doing on the zero line
Starlink as the indispensable game-changer — and Russia's increasingly serious attempt to jam it
Combat casualty care when CASEVAC takes 12 hours, the golden hour is dead, and tourniquets sit on for a month
What the Marine Corps should steal from Ukraine — pushing Hornets to the battalion, Bumblebees to the company, and giving up something to make room
this ep's a little too dark for a suno song
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Wanna do big things? This week, a how-to guide for technically minded people who want to stop posting and start changing things — covering everything from why every globally important problem is "white space."
Joining Jordan are Kumar Garg, founder of Renaissance Philanthropy and a veteran of the Obama White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Remco Zwetsloot, co-founder of the Horizon Institute for Public Service, which builds pipelines into government for emerging-tech talent.
We discuss…
Why $10 million globally on lead remediation tells you everything about how undertalented the world's most important problems are
Ambition + humility as the Horizon Fellowship's selection criteria — and why most candidates need to hear the opposite of what they expect
"We care meetings" vs. "we decide meetings," the Geithner heuristic for surviving senior government roles
The tribal KPIs of the White House — what the Office of Public Engagement, speech writing, and comms actually want from a policy nerd
The conscious-incompetence quadrant and why "your job is not to be the expert, your job is to mobilize expertise"
The posting-to-policy pipeline, the rise of the individual writer, and the introspective work that public writing forces
My Bulgarian tanks fantasy vs. the value-over-replacement case for picking your own hobby horse
Horizon recently launched Launchpad, a Substack on working in emerging tech policy with advice, explainers, and conversations like this one — if you enjoyed this conversation, you’ll probably like their other stuff as well.
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From Mar-a-Lago to the Great Hall, Trump returns to Beijing desperate for validation while Xi Jinping treats him to strategic flattery. It’s the first time an American president has been to China in seven years. It deserves a podcast, although, as Trivium said, the outcomes could have been an email instead of a summit.
Today’s guests are Sergey Radchenko, author of To Run the World: The Kremlin’s Cold War Bid for Global Power — which won a ChinaTalk Book of the Year award and got the four-hour podcast treatment — as well as ChinaTalk regulars Kevin Xu of Interconnected and Jon Czin, formerly of the CIA and NSC, now with Brookings.
Our conversation covers:
Prestige politics on the cheap — How Trump's delegation gawked at Chinese architecture while Xi scored propaganda points by getting the U.S. president to fawn over Zhongnanhai's gardens — reversing decades of diplomatic protocol.
The G2 that never was — Why Trump's dream of running the world with Xi echoes Nixon and Brezhnev's failed détente, and how strategic competition makes genuine cooperation impossible regardless of personal chemistry.
The AI factor — As Beijing struggles with compute constraints and export controls, the US brings its AI safety dialogue proposal as its only real leverage in an otherwise empty summit.
The midterm calculation — How Xi is withholding concessions until September 2026, betting that Trump will need wins most desperately right before the elections.
Who’s using the pause better? — While China methodically builds domestic chip capacity and refuses even approved Nvidia exports, the U.S. struggles with basic industrial policy on rare earths.
song: https://suno.com/s/cwNGihewAFKpkJls
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Julian Gewirtz, former Biden administration China official, now at Columbia, joins me to chat about the Xi-Trump visit and all things US-China. Matt Sheehan, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, drops by to give his takes on the AI angle.We cover:
What to expect (and not expect) from the Trump-Xi “stalemate summit”
Historical echoes from the 1793 Macartney mission and the 1972 Nixon-Kissinger opening — summit optics, status games, and the choreography of power.
Taiwan — arms sales, declaratory language, and Beijing's long game on Taiwanese morale and politics.
The good and bad case for China in the Iran conflict, and how Chinese officials may be reading America's military commitments, political cohesion, and staying power.
US-China AI safety conversation after Mythos, China's approach to frontier AI risks, and the control, harness, govern playbook for emerging technologies.
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The White House says the war is over. The White House also says it's continuing in a new form. Two weeks after the launch of Project Freedom, only two Maersk ships took the offer. Roughly 900 ships remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, and the Saudis just declined to grant basing or overflight rights.
Retired Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan — founding director of the Pentagon's Joint AI Center and former head of Project Maven — joins Bryan Clark, Eric Robinson, Tony Stark, and Justin McIntosh to dig into the purgatory.
We discuss…
Why Project Freedom collapsed
A leaked CIA assessment putting 70% of Iran's ballistic missile capability still intact
The Anthropic supply chain risk designation, Mythos, and the "call me" moment
Four F-15Es down, 30 MQ-9s shot down, and why Jack thinks the Air Force was one inch from a televised POW disaster
song:https://suno.com/s/kBuJ4ruS5UkfTdY3
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