Episodes
-
In this episode of The Paper Trail, host Chris Seveney breaks down the âdouble squeezeâ currently pressuring real estate construction from two directions at once: rising tariffs on building materials and a tightening construction labor market. Drawing from nearly 30 years of experience in construction and development, Chris explains how these forces are changing the economics of new development and why passive investors should pay close attention.
Episode Timeline00:00 Tariffs and Labor Crunch
01:44 Tariffs Raise Material Costs
04:00 Labor Shortage Hits Timelines
07:21 Double Squeeze on Supply
08:57 Market Examples: DC vs Florida
10:27 Passive Investor Checklist
13:02 Budgeting and Capital Stack
14:36 Wrap Up and Next Episode
Learn More
To learn more about how 7e approaches note investing, underwriting, and market strategy, visit:
https://7einvestments.com
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice.
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, Chris Seveney breaks down how real estate syndication returns change once taxes, fees, and deal structure are fully accounted for.
Rather than focusing on headline IRR, the discussion centers on what investors actually keep after understanding their position in the capital stack, the tax implications of debt versus equity, and the impact of layered fee structures.
Chris also highlights retirement-account pitfalls such as UBIT/UDFI in leveraged non-corporate deals, multi-state filing costs for K-1 investors, and the importance of using a CPA experienced with real estate and passive loss rules, urging investors to ask sponsors detailed structural questions before investing.
00:00 Welcome and Overview
01:21 Capital Stack Basics
02:24 Debt vs Equity Taxes
04:24 Gross vs Net Returns
06:51 K-1s Depreciation Recapture
10:50 Syndication Fee Breakdown
14:48 Fees vs Waterfalls Promote
19:07 Sponsors Cant Give Tax Advice
22:07 IRA Investing UBIT Trap
24:50 Multi-State Filing Costs
28:33 Choosing the Right CPA
30:42 Wrap-Up Key Questions
34:10 Final Thanks and Sign-Off
-
Missing episodes?
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, Chris Seveney takes a practical look at how AI is shaping real estate and mortgage note investing today.
Moving past the hype, he outlines where AI is already improving underwriting and valuation, where it may be narrowing investor advantage, and what structural risks are often overlooked as these tools become more embedded in the market.
Episode Timeline
00:00 AI Wake-Up Call
00:56 The Good: Where AI Is Already Adding Value
01:53 Faster Property Valuations
02:42 Smarter Borrower Risk Assessment
03:19 The Bad: Shrinking Information Advantage
05:20 Execution Becomes the Edge
06:03 The Overlooked Risk: Chip Dependency
06:56 Taiwan and Supply Chain Exposure
09:17 Avoiding Over-Reliance on AI
09:49 Why Note Investing Remains Durable
10:58 PropTech vs. Fundamental Models
12:08 Final Takeaways and Next Steps
Learn More
To learn more about how 7e approaches note investing, underwriting, and market strategy, visit:
https://7einvestments.com
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice.
-
In this new episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, Chris Seveney breaks down the growing stress in private credit and draws a clear distinction between corporate direct lending and asset-backed mortgage note investing.
Chris Seveney walks through what is actually happening beneath the headlines, why parts of the market are showing strain, and how structural differences in collateral, underwriting, and resolution paths can lead to very different outcomes.
Episode Timeline
00:00 Overview of recent developments in private credit markets
01:10 Definition and structure of private credit
03:03 Factors contributing to current market stress
04:52 Structural differences in note investing approaches
06:20 Role of asset-backed collateral in credit strategies
09:12 Observations on tech-enabled real estate lender activity
13:24 Considerations when evaluating loan pools
14:18 Summary of key discussion points
16:09 Additional resources and closing remarks
-
The easy part of a credit cycle is when rising home prices hide mistakes. That phase appears to be ending.
In this episode of the Paper Trail podcast, Chris Seveney, CEO of 7e Investments, shares a grounded view of where the mortgage note market sits today and how his firm is adjusting its strategy for 2026. Drawing on direct asset management experience across performing and non-performing loans, Chris explains why todayâs environment demands tighter underwriting, deeper operational oversight, and more disciplined execution.
While housing stress is not yet broad across the market, it is becoming more concentrated and visible. Liquidity remains available, but it is increasingly selective. Lenders are tightening guidelines, appraisal scrutiny is rising, and the margin for underwriting mistakes is shrinking.
For note investors, this shift matters. In prior years, rapid home price appreciation often covered operational errors. Today, asset performance depends far more on borrower behavior, collateral quality, and execution during workouts.
Chris also discusses how borrower options are changing. With refinancing pathways narrowing and affordability pressures rising, some borrowers are turning to bankruptcy filings earlier in the process, reducing the number of quick resolutions that investors have become accustomed to. That shift places greater emphasis on hands-on asset management and flexible resolution strategies.
A key theme throughout the discussion is time risk. In judicial foreclosure states especially, delays can compound legal costs, extend timelines, and significantly alter expected outcomes. Chris explains why relying solely on foreclosure as a strategy can expose investors to unnecessary risk and why maintaining multiple resolution paths is critical.
The conversation closes with a look inside how 7e is adapting operationally, including tighter collateral controls, stronger vendor oversight, and underwriting models that reflect real historical timelines rather than optimistic projections.
For investors navigating the current credit environment, the message is straightforward: opportunity still exists, but success increasingly depends on discipline, patience, and operational execution.
Topics Covered
00:00 â Welcome and episode introduction
01:34 â Where we are in the mortgage and housing cycle
02:12 â Market stress, liquidity conditions, and lending standards
03:35 â Changes in borrower behavior and workout dynamics
04:52 â Why hands-on asset management matters more now
05:47 â Pricing discipline and evaluating new deals
07:21 â Time as the biggest risk variable in note investing
10:25 â Common mistakes investors make during this phase of the cycle
13:01 â How 7e is adjusting its 2026 strategy
13:51 â Fraud risk, collateral control, and documentation verification
16:05 â What investors should reevaluate in todayâs market
18:00 â Why discipline and process matter most
19:21 â Final thoughts and closing
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail podcast, Chris Seveney, CEO of 7e Investments, breaks down a long-term historical comparison of renting versus owning from 1970 through 2026 and explains why todayâs cost imbalance matters for mortgage note investors.
Rather than focusing on headlines, Chris walks through decades of data to show how housing costs and rent tend to revert toward historical norms after periods of distortion. The core message is simple: real estate moves in cycles, and disciplined investors position themselves accordingly.
00:00 Buying vs Renting
00:50 Reading the Rent vs Own Chart
01:43 1980s Interest Rate Shock
03:50 Rents Rise and 1998 Crossover
05:09 2000s Bubble and Crash
06:43 Inventory Problem Not Homes
08:28 2012 Recovery to Pre Covid Balance
09:46 Covid Era Price Surge
11:39 Why Buying Makes No Sense Now
14:04 What It Means for Note Investors
16:47 Case Study Smokies Reality Check
19:27 Crystal Ball and Final Caution
20:44 Wrap Up
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail podcast, Chris breaks down three major political and policy developments being discussed right now and what they could really mean for homeowners, investors, and the non-performing mortgage note space. No political spin, just practical analysis.
00:00 â Intro About Chris & 7E Investments01:30 â Topic #1: Credit Card Interest Rate Caps07:00 â Topic #2: Executive Order on Housing & HUD Loan Sales11:00 â Topic #3: Privatizing Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac15:30 â Early loan defaults & what they reveal about current lending18:30 â Recap & key takeaways
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail podcast, Chris discusses themes related to note investing with a focus on foreclosure trends. With 10 years of experience in mortgage notes and 25 years in real estate, Chris provides insights into the state of the foreclosure market post-COVID, contrasting it with the 2008 financial crisis.
Key topics include foreclosure statistics from 2006 to 2025, varying foreclosure timelines by state, and the impacts of economic factors such as taxes, insurance, and interest rates on foreclosure trends.
The episode also delves into how these trends affect note investors, emphasizing the opportunities in the growing non-performing mortgage note space.
00:00 Introduction to the Paper Trail Podcast
00:40 Diving into Foreclosure Trends
02:00 Historical Foreclosure Data Analysis
06:45 State-Specific Foreclosure Insights
11:37 Metro Area Foreclosure Hotspots
15:18 Foreclosure Timelines and Challenges
22:07 Future Market Predictions and Opportunities
24:45 Conclusion and Call to Action
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail podcast, Chris delves into the intricacies of title insurance, emphasizing its significance for mortgage note investors.
Chris discusses the roles of owner's policies and lender's policies, presents real-life case studies of title claims, and highlights the pitfalls of neglecting title insurance.
He also shares insights from Marco Bario's valuable article on the subject, stressing the growing importance of due diligence amid increasing fraud in the industry.
Chris wraps up by providing tips on assessing title policies when acquiring notes and underscores the necessity of title insurance for every originator.
00:00 Introduction to the Paper Trail
00:41 Today's Topic: Title Insurance
00:55 Insights from Marco Bario
03:00 The Importance of Title Insurance
05:24 Understanding Title Insurance Policies
09:25 Common Title Insurance Issues
13:27 Case Studies and Real-Life Examples
18:45 Final Thoughts and Recommendations
24:30 Conclusion and Farewell
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, host Chris Seveney delves into the common mistakes investors make when bidding on note investments.
He breaks down a top 10 list of these errors, highlighting the complexities of foreclosure processes, especially in non-judicial states.
Chris provides valuable examples and insights, stressing the importance of thorough due diligence, understanding potential delays, and realistic financial modeling.
The episode is a must-listen for both active and passive investors looking to deepen their understanding of the mortgage note investment space.
00:00 Introduction to Note Investing
01:01 Top 10 Mistakes in Bidding on Assets
02:39 Case Study: Borrower A vs. Borrower B
04:11 Challenges in Foreclosure and Bankruptcy
09:17 Real-Life Examples and Investor Pitfalls
20:03 Understanding Non-Judicial vs. Judicial States
21:24 Conclusion and Resources
-
2026 Real Estate and Non-Performing Notes Predictions
In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, Chris shares his top 10 predictions for the real estate and lending markets in 2026. He discusses tighter lending standards, rising defaults, and the importance of being a disciplined operator. Key trends include the tightening of investor space lending conditions, challenges in the multifamily sector, struggles for sponsors operating outside their expertise, a slowdown in fix-and-flip activity, the rise of build-to-rent, increased defaults on investor loans, the complexities of judicial foreclosures, potential declines in home prices in booming states like Florida and Texas, and the predicted growth of 7E Investments. Chris emphasizes the necessity for consistency, strategic focus, and disciplined underwriting in navigating the year ahead.
00:00 Introduction and Recap
00:12 2026 Real Estate Predictions Overview
01:05 Trend 1: Tightening Lending Conditions
04:07 Trend 2: Multifamily Market Challenges
05:42 Trend 3: Struggles of Inexperienced Sponsors
09:01 Trend 4: Decline in Fix and Flip Activity
10:15 Trend 5: Build to Rent Opportunities
13:31 Trend 6: Rising Defaults on Investor Loans
15:59 Trend 7: Owner-Occupied Market Insights
19:10 Trend 8: Judicial Foreclosure Challenges
23:52 Trend 9: Home Price Declines in Key States
26:18 Trend 10: Growth Projections for 2026
27:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail podcast, Chris reviews his 2025 predictions and evaluates his accuracy, covering essential aspects such as interest rates, home prices, mortgage defaults, and the overall economy. He reflects on the media's portrayal of real estate, assesses the impact of interest rates and home pricing, and provides an in-depth analysis of mortgage defaults and delinquencies. The episode also predicts future market trends and emphasizes the importance of real estate experience.
Additionally, Chris touches on short-term rentals, multifamily properties, seller financing, and the economic pressures facing households. This reflective analysis sets the stage for understanding current market dynamics and future forecasts in real estate.
00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview
00:42 Reflecting on 2025 Predictions
02:01 Interest Rates Analysis
04:08 Home Prices Trends
07:38 Mortgage Defaults and Delinquencies
11:41 Economic Pressures and Household Impact
15:58 Short-Term Rentals and Market Shifts
23:34 Fix and Flip Investor Loans
27:24 Macro Observations and Real Estate Trends
31:43 Conclusion and Future Predictions
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, Chris Seveney breaks down the most common misconceptions surrounding DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans. Whether youâre a first-time real estate investor or looking to scale your portfolio, this no-fluff episode is packed with insights that could save you time, money, and frustration.
00:00 Introduction and Overview
01:04 Understanding DSCR Loans
01:55 Myth 1: Credit Score Doesn't Matter
04:13 Myth 2: 100% Financing
05:56 Myth 3: Only for Commercial Properties
07:55 Myth 4: No Documentation Required
10:06 Myth 5: Funding Rehabs or Fix and Flips
11:59 Myth 6: Quick Closures
13:31 Myth 7: Prepayment Penalties
18:11 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
-
Understanding Recent Changes in Credit Scores and Mortgage Terms
In this episode of the Paper Trail podcast, Chris discusses two significant topics affecting the note investing space: the potential for 50-year mortgages and changes in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac credit score requirements. The host explains how the removal of the 620 credit score floor could impact loan qualification and why the idea of 50-year mortgages may not gain widespread traction. Emphasizing the importance of understanding the 'rules of the game,' the host advises investors to stay focused on their business fundamentals and not get distracted by industry hype and external chatter.
00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview
01:01 Credit Score Changes and Their Impact
03:18 The 50-Year Mortgage: Pros and Cons
06:03 Focus: The Key to Successful Investing
11:15 Understanding the Rules of the Game
19:55 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
-
In this episode of the Paper Trail Podcast, host Chris shares insightful stories from his years of experience in note investing. He reflects on his journey since rebranding from the Good Deeds Note Investing Podcast and delves into two detailed case studies involving complex loan situations.
Chris discusses the importance of patience, direct involvement, and the value of understanding both consumer and investor laws. He also emphasizes the necessity of proactive management and communication with borrowers to protect investment interests. As always, listeners are encouraged to interact and learn more about investment opportunities with 7E Investments.
00:00 Introduction and Podcast Rebranding
00:29 Early Podcast Days and Lessons Learned
01:51 The Slow Pace of Note Investing
02:21 Case Study 1: Investor Loans and Extensions
09:24 Case Study 2: Builder Loans and Foreclosure
12:39 Dealing with Difficult Borrowers
18:08 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
-
In this episode of The Paper Trail Podcast, Chris shares what he calls the biggest mistake of his note investing career: buying a 0% interest loan. Despite acquiring it at a steep discount, the loan turned into a frustrating and time-consuming challenge. Chris breaks down what went wrongâfrom unpredictable borrower behavior and high servicing fees to the illusion of âcheapâ deals that arenât worth the effort.
He explains how low monthly payments can erode returns, why understanding your servicing contract is critical, and how certain borrowers exploit the system. Through this candid story, Chris illustrates the hidden dangers of loans that seem too good to be true and why discipline, due diligence, and realistic pricing matter more than chasing a bargain.
This episode is an unfiltered look at the mistakes, frustrations, and lessons that come with real-world note investingâoffering valuable takeaways for anyone entering the business or managing a portfolio today.
-
In this episode of The Paper Trail Podcast, Chris breaks down one of the most overlooked mistakes in pricing non-performing loansâunderestimating the risk of reinstatement on low-interest loans. He shares how even experienced investors can misprice assets by focusing too heavily on foreclosure-based models without considering what happens if a borrower resumes payments.
Chris also offers a real-world update from 7e Investmentsâ record-breaking third quarter, previews upcoming educational seminars, and introduces 7eâs new private lending program offering DSCR and fix-and-flip loans. Whether youâre a seasoned note buyer or new to the space, this episode offers practical, experience-based lessons to refine how you analyze loan tapes and avoid common valuation errors.
-
In this episode, Chris breaks down one of the most misunderstood aspects of mortgage note investingâhow to price non-performing loans correctly. Drawing from real case studies, he explains why assuming a fast foreclosure timeline can lead to major miscalculations, how borrower behavior (like filing for bankruptcy) impacts your timeline and return, and why the biggest risks often come from what you canât predict.
Chris also shares how 7e models downside risk using IRR and scenario planning, why adding just one month to your assumptions can save your entire deal, and what to do when legal errors, borrower beliefs, or delays threaten your outcome. This episode is a must-listen for investors who want to move beyond surface-level deal sourcing and understand what it really takes to manage notes profitably.
This is part one of a multi-part series on loan pricing fundamentals.
-
In this episode of The Paper Trail Podcast, Chris recaps the recent Paper Trail Conference and the intentional decision to keep sessions unrecorded for candid discussions. He then dives into the latest foreclosure and REO data from ATTOM and USFN, comparing national trends with the 7e Investments portfolio. Foreclosure activity is climbing, REOs are surging, and certain markets like Florida, Nevada, and South Carolina are experiencing significant distress. Chris explains how these trends affect investors, why understanding local markets matters, and how note buyers should factor price declines and holding costs into bids. He also previews an upcoming 10-part series on bidding strategies for non-performing loans, highlighting the need to look beyond calculators and consider external factors. The episode closes with thoughts on rising non-performing loans in commercial and multifamily sectors and what these shifts mean for upcoming opportunities in distressed debt.
-
A casual chit-chat unfolds as George and Chris dive into the coffee-fueled world of commercial real estate. They kick things off with some light banter about their coffee preferencesâGeorge's straight black versus Chris's adventurous mushroom blend, a nod to the quirky side of their industry. From there, George shares his unexpected journey into the realm of real estate, which started as a part-time gig just after college and spiraled into a decades-long career. They explore the nuances of commercial brokerage, touching on everything from retail and office spaces to the importance of being adaptable in an ever-changing market.
George emphasizes the need for real estate agents to stay educated and embrace new technologiesâbecause in the wild world of commercial real estate, it's survival of the fittest, or in their case, the most adaptable! They tackle the question of what truly adds value to a property, with George sharing some killer insights on how strategic upgrades can lead to significant returns. A highlight of the convo is their take on the current market, aptly dubbed the 'fog of war,' reflecting the uncertainty and myriad influences affecting investors today. Chris and George offer a refreshing take on how to navigate the tricky waters of real estate, blending wisdom with a sprinkle of humor.
- Show more
