Episoder
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I used to think a great ERM program just meant strict discipline. Now I know the best CROs have an ERM playbook with multiple sets of plays and sometimes they are calling audibles, changing the ERM play at the last moment. Most companies run their business using a single ERM playbookâuntil a crisis hits. Today we address 6 distinct "time zones" and explain how you actually need different playbooks for each.
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Outliers are events we know are possibleâwe have the data, the science, or the historical precedentâbut we actively ignore them because they haven't happened recently. They grow in the dark because a stable economy breeds complacency, leading institutions to price assets as if these threats don't exist. In today's podcast, Max explains how we must shine a light into the dark corners of the marketâlooking for risk interactions, tightening loan covenants, and questioning historical models before the next Outlier forces the light on for all of us.
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Manglende episoder?
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If you treat a "wicked problem" like a standard, predictable risk, failure is almost guaranteed. Listen up and we will explain, what is a Wicked Problem and how it is very different from most of the risks on your risk register.
In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we break down why traditional enterprise risk management frameworks are completely failing in the face of modern, systemic crisesâfrom climate change shifts to sudden technological disruptions like AI herding. Discover the hidden dangers of relying too heavily on rigid corporate models, why forcing economic efficiency might actually make these risks worse and your organization more fragile.
These problems don't actually have any right or wrong solutions. Welcome to the squishy world of unique, wicked problems.
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The risk of hyperinflation should not be ignored despite our lack of recent experience with it in the U.S. Hyperinflation is not just theoretical, our discussion looks at the core mechanics of inflation - most notably that it is based on trust. Max shares a comprehensive look at the unique factors cushioning the U.S., such as reserve currency status, while also addressing significant growing risks, including consistent deficits and a debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeding 100%. Hear about the complex interactions of economic policy, shadow banking, and the leading indicators that proactive risk managers must monitor to prepare for potential high-inflation scenarios.
Blog post of this story:
https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/hyperinflation
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Survival in chaos doesn't come from optimization. It comes from diversification, buffers, and the speed to decide what to do next.
Pragmatists have a completely different way of doing risk management that is designed for these VUCA times. By focusing on building resilience to survive volatility. Most managers are doing this wrong by chasing efficiency in a uncertain world. In this episode, we break down the "Pragmatist Manifesto" and its six core principles.
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Stability breeds instability. If your model assumes calm continuity, you might be blind to the pile of sand that's about to avalanche.
Many actuaries and financial modelers rely on recent data and linear trending of assumptions, missing the amplifying loops that can accelerate change to topple entire systems. We discuss what to look for instead.
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We are making decisions with incomplete and conflicting information every day. Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) make it harder and harder to get those decisions right. Maybe we need to change our objective, not to find the best decision, but the one with the least chance of disastrous consequences. Keep your eyes out for the Regime change that has started. We provide four examples of what may be next.
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How do you make a confident decision when the information itself is unclear? Ambiguity is the core challenge of modern leadership.
But the pursuit of perfect data to drive good decisions leads right into "analysis paralysis". We need to be enhancing our capability to use strategies like satisficingâmaking the best possible decision within time constraintsâand using narrative scenarios to communicate complex risks to non-experts. For professionals and graduates navigating an uncertain future, the key takeaway is that human judgment, creativity, and ethical reasoning are the skills AI cannot replicate and are most valuable in an ambiguous world.
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A jet engine is complicated. Your company is complex. The strategies for managing the risks of each are fundamentallyâand dangerouslyâdifferent.
We call Complexity the "twist" in VUCA because it fundamentally changes the nature of the problems we face. While Volatility, Uncertainty, and Ambiguity describe challenging conditions, Complexity introduces a system where the parts are interdependent and adapt. This means you cannot solve a complex problem by simply breaking it into smaller, complicated parts and fixing them.
Complexity is the twist: it's the element that makes VUCA environments truly unmanageable with old playbooks. You cannot apply a "complicated" solution to a "complex" problem and get the result that you want.
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Uncertainty is rising and AI is one of the most significant drivers.
Not because there is something wrong with AI, but because it is so different and so powerful. We just do not know what changes are right around the corner. We do believe that the future belongs to the companies who learn to best combine human empathy, creativity and the ability to navigate uncertainty with AI's speed of processing and power of connection making between existing ideas and new human insights.
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We are entering a period of high risk coming from every direction that our current systems cannot hope to mitigate.
This episode of Crossing Thin Ice looks ahead to 2026's major challenges. Hosts Dave and Max analyze interconnected risksâfrom economic fragility and climate change to AI's inflection bubble. They explore whether our systems are drifting toward crisis or a path to resilience. Tune in for a systems-thinking discussion on navigating financial, geopolitical, and technological headwinds.
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Diversify food strategies, not just portfolios.
Solutions like the Green Revolution and widespread monoculture farming boosted food supply but created long-term ecological and social vulnerabilities. We link population ideas from Franklin and Malthus to modern pressuresâclimate change, resource scarcity, migrationâand warns these risks could cause solvency issues for insurers. Max discusses solutions for the agriculture sector as well as for insurers. You might consider adding this to your emerging risks list.
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Replace "this won't happen" with "what if" and give your strategy a fighting chance.
Volatility isnât just a number â itâs the signal that tells you whether your strategy will survive shocks or be blindsided by them. This podcast starts our VUCA series and shows why time horizon, human bias, and narrative scenarios matter more than averages. Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity to follow.
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Execution isnât speed or perfection. Itâs reliable delivery under chaos. Use these six steps to get there.
Great ideas can fail simply because execution breaks down? In episode 70 of Crossing Thin Ice, hosts Max Rudolph and David Ingram show how risk management helps with good execution to turn plans into predictable profit. This episode walks through six practical pillars that make execution reliable even when reality diverges from the plan.
Youâll hear real-world examples you can take up and apply with the help of your ERM program. This conversation is practical, practitioner-focused, and geared to leaders who want execution that survives stress and delivers consistent results.
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Most ORSA reports definitely fall into the TLDR category. But you can tell the ORSA with a clear, fast story that will become a part of the strategy discussion. This podcast tells how to turn a dense solvency exercise into an elevator pitch that earns attention, builds confidence, and links risk work to strategy. Youâll see why some ERM programs thrive and others wither, and how a small change in communication can protect capital and enhance decision-making. Read this if you want your next ORSA to be useful, not just compliant â and to get executives listening. Skip the noiseâmake your ORSA count today.
Read the blog post: https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/orsa-rides-the-elevator
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Data centers, AI, and local energy and water systems are colliding â and communities are feeling the strain. In this episode, we break down how data centers drive local jobs and growth but also demand massive electricity and millions of gallons of cooling water. We dig into real-world impacts (with Memphis as a case study), the strain on local grids, and the tradeoffs between diesel, natural gas, and renewable power.
You will learn about closed-loop cooling, reclaimed-water and air-cooling options, and why narrow, task-focused AI could cut future energy use. We also discuss the economic risks when data-center buildouts outpace real demand and what municipalities should demand from operators â from rate guarantees to public environmental review.
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Good timing is a critical advantage in product launches and broader risk management. But you need to be ready. Readiness is internal - organizational alignment, product, operations, finance, and sales - and external - economic, technology, regulatory, cyclical, customer, and competitive timing. Risk management helps by monitoring the environment, promoting transparency, running stress tests and scenarios, setting limits and early warnings, and building adaptability. Real examples from variable annuities and long-term care show how wellâtimed hedging or market entry can protect companies â and how bad timing can be costly. The takeaway: ensure both internal and external readiness before you launch.
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Can insurers treat premiums like a cheap loan â and when does that bet blow up? In this episode we unpack âinvesting for floatâ: where it can boost returns, why annuities and life blocks are fragile, and how gaps in ALM, liquidity and regulation can turn clever strategies into industry-wide risk. Practical checks for boards, investors and regulators throughout.
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True business success often hinges less on the risks taken and more on the quality of judgment, timing, and execution. Yet, what precisely constitutes âgood judgmentâ in the fast-paced world of commerce remains a profound, elusive question. How do leaders consistently make the right choices and identify the most probable paths to victory? Navigating this critical challenge is paramount for any enterprise aiming to thrive and secure its future.
Read this story at https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/good-judgment-with-risk-management
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Many of the most extreme dangers arenât where people are looking. When risks are âin the lightââvisible and pricedâthey get managed and shrink. But when risks are âin the darkâ they quietly grow until a shock exposes them, often after it is too late to do anything about them. Hear about over 30 risks that are in the dark for many business leaders. And a strategy for surviving. Risks grow in the dark until the light finds them - but too late.
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