Episodes
-
Happy 250th!
The bulls are bubbling up!
Yentervention – it is a thing.
Labor market predictions.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
PayPal.Donation.Button({env:'production',hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J',image: {src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif',alt:'Donate with PayPal button',title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!',}}).render('#donate-button');Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- 250 Years!
- We have the scorecard
- Bulls are on the loose!
- Kevin Hassett - what a putz
- RAM JOB!Markets
- Google's first day in the DJIA - a good one
- SpaceX bonds already losing
-Yen slips to 1986 levels - Yentervention?WHAT A PUTZ!
- Trump Accounts launch July 4, with the NYSE and Nasdaq set to ring the opening bell from the Oval Office.
- Program gives a $1,000 Treasury-funded investment account to U.S. children born from January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2028.
- Kids under 18 can have accounts, but only newborns in that four-year window get the federal seed money.
- Parents, family, employers, nonprofits, and governments can add money, with a general $5,000 annual contribution cap.
- Money is invested in index funds and generally locked up until the child reaches adulthood.
- Kevin Hassett pitched it as a way to teach kids about markets, ownership, saving, and compounding. His argument is that the more young people get exposed to investing early, and market ownership becomes less of an upper-income club.
- However - > the government is handing out taxpayer-funded brokerage seed money while selling it as capitalism.
- Also odd: the benefit may skew toward families who already know how to file forms, open accounts, and add more money.
- So basically it is a forced financial-literacy experiment wrapped in a political brand name, with a socialist starter check to teach capitalism.First-Half Winners and Losers
- S&P 500 finished the first half up roughly 7% to 8%, with the rally led by AI hardware, chips, memory, and data-center infrastructure.
- Biggest winners were the shovel sellers: Sandisk up about 780%, Micron up about 296%, Western Digital up about 240%, Seagate up about 226%.
- Overseas AI hardware ripped too: South Korea's Kospi up 123%, helped by Samsung up 169% and SK Hynix up 303%.
- Semiconductor ETFs had a monster Q2: iShares Semiconductor ETF up 86.8%, VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 64.8%.
- Japan's Nikkei rose about 38%; FTSE 100 gained about 5.8%.
- Losers were the software/platform names that could not prove immediate AI payoff.
- Microsoft was down about 24% despite being one of the biggest AI spenders.
- Momentum stocks had one of their worst stretches in two decades as the Magnificent Seven slipped on capex worries.
- Crypto and gold also lagged the AI-infrastructure trade.
- Equity BULLS are running like it was San Fermin, Spain...MORE....
- Gold biggest quarterly loss since 2013
- Japan best quarter ever
- Oil starts and ends
- Kospi best quarter in 30 years
- Stoxx 600 best Q in 5 yearsSomething is going to break!
- When Micro announced earnings, and we see that companies are panicking (News about existential threat to smaller tech players).. We said something is going to break
- MU shares lifted to ATH on the news - big big beat - Micron’s latest quarter showed a dramatic acceleration from the year-ago period, with revenue rising from $9,301 to $41,460 and EPS increasing from $1.91 to $25.11.
- HUGE uptick in guidance
- Apple increased pricing, Dell is increasing prices next week (17%), Microsoft raised price on XBox, HP across the board increase, Lenovo/Xiaomi increases,
- NOW: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from China's ChangXin Memory TechnologiesKorea Goes All-In On AI Memory
- Samsung and SK Hynix are backing a huge South Korea chip buildout tied to AI memory, HBM, advanced DRAM, packaging and data centers.
- Samsung’s plan includes hundreds of trillions of won for new fabs, including HBM facilities in Cheonan and Onyang.
- SK Hynix is expanding Yongin and planning a major new chip base as it rides demand from Nvidia-linked HBM supply.
- Government angle: Seoul wants domestic chip capacity treated like national infrastructure, not just corporate capex.
- The state is trying to lock in supply-chain control before China, Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. pull more production into their own subsidy zones.
- Market wrinkle: AI memory is hot now, but memory companies have a long history of overbuilding into strong pricing cycles.
- Governments are no longer just subsidizing chips — they are helping plan semiconductor cities.RAM Job?
- Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron were hit with a U.S. antitrust class-action lawsuit over alleged DRAM price fixing.
- Allegation: the big three coordinated supply cuts while shifting capacity away from regular DDR3/DDR4 memory and into high-bandwidth memory for AI servers.
- Plaintiffs say the three companies control roughly 90% of the DRAM market.
- Conventional DRAM prices allegedly jumped about 700% over four years.
- Complaint argues that in a normal commodity market, at least one supplier would usually increase production when prices spike.
- Instead, the lawsuit says all three moved in the same direction at the same time.DRAM: We Have Seen This Movie Before
- Yes, there was a similar DRAM price-fixing scandal in the 2000s.
- DOJ investigation covered alleged DRAM price fixing from roughly 1998 through 2002.
- Hynix pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $185 million criminal fine.
- Samsung pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $300 million criminal fine.
- Infineon pleaded guilty earlier, in 2004, and agreed to pay a $160 million fine.
- Micron was involved in the investigation but received amnesty/cooperation treatment rather than the same criminal fine path.
- Several executives were also charged or pleaded guilty.
- State AGs and private plaintiffs later pursued civil cases tied to overpayment claims.
- Difference now: the new case is not yet proven and appears focused on alleged coordinated supply restriction during the AI/HBM boom.Chevron and Microsoft
- Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power.
- Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility.
- Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts.
- Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes.
- Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later.
- Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations.More Oil News - Drill baby Drill
- Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration.
- Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases.
- Bonds ensure cleanup costs don’t fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned.
- Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development.
- Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication.Dow 52,000 and the Tech Bounce
- Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time Monday, finishing at 52,182.74.
- S&P 500 gained 1.18%; Nasdaq jumped 2.07%.
- S&P and Nasdaq snapped five-session losing streaks.
- Alphabet rose 4.8% on its first day as a Dow component.
- Tesla gained 8.5%; SpaceX rose more than 7%.
- The bounce came after last week's tech selloff, with investors rotating back into mega-cap and AI names.Comcast Breaks Itself Up
- Comcast plans to split media and connectivity into two separate companies.
- NBCUniversal and Sky would be spun off in a tax-free deal; Comcast keeps broadband, wireless, and cable.
- Completion expected within a year.
- Shareholders would own both Comcast and the new NBCUniversal.
- Comcast shares rose on the news; Charter also jumped as investors speculated Comcast could eventually pursue a broadband-scale deal.AI Trade Gets a Warning Label
- Bank for International Settlements flagged the AI boom as a financial-stability risk.
- The main concerns: elevated valuations, investor complacency, complex funding structures, and debt financing across the AI supply chain.
- BIS also warned that record public debt and leveraged hedge-fund activity in sovereign bonds could amplify shocks.
- Quote from BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos: "Policy actions must reinforce each other."
- The interesting part: central bankers are not saying AI is fake; they are saying the financing stack may be fragile.Inflation Back Above 4%
- BEA's PCE price index rose 4.1% year over year in May.
- April was 3.8%; March was 3.5%; February was 2.9%.
- This keeps pressure on the Fed because PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
- Core PCE may later be revised lower because of BEA methodology changes.
- Goldman estimated May core PCE could be trimmed to 3.2% from 3.4%; JPMorgan expected 3.3%.
- Funny-but-real detail: part of the potential revision comes from how BEA prices portfolio management, legal services, and computer software.Jobs Report Becomes Bad-News-Is-Bad-News
- June payrolls are due Thursday because markets are closed Friday for Independence Day.
- The setup is awkward: strong jobs could mean stronger economy, but also higher odds of Fed hikes.
- Looking back - May payrolls were hot at 172,000 versus an 85,000 forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.
- Remember - after the June Fed meeting, policymakers were clearly focused on inflation, not rescue cuts.Oil, Iran, and the Market's New Weird Routine
- Oil stayed volatile around renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and peace-talk headlines.
- Brent rose 1.6% Monday to $73.15; WTI rose 2.2% to $70.75.
- Markets rallied anyway, helped by signs talks would resume and shipping routes were stabilizing.
- The odd market behavior: geopolitical escalation keeps getting followed by de-escalation headlines and risk-on rallies.
- This is now part of the trading pattern: weekend war scare, Monday relief rally, repeat.
--- New attacks by USA on Iran happened at approx 4:30PM on Friday (markets closed) and then a halt to the fighting on Sunday - before the futures opened.Odd : Wendy's Becomes a Meme Stock
- Wendy's became the latest retail-trader short-squeeze target.
- Stock surged 25% last Wednesday, then gained another 9% Thursday.
- Barron's said the move followed a CFO shakeup and WallStreetBets attention.
- New CFO Steve Cirulis came from Potbelly and is also taking the Chief Strategy Officer title.
- Wendy's had fallen 47% over the past year before the rally.
- Short interest was nearly 30% of the public float, making the stock easier to squeeze.
- Trian, Nelson Peltz's firm, owned nearly 15 million shares valued around $93 million.SpaceX Bonds Slip After Big Debut
- SpaceX sold $25 billion of investment-grade bonds, its first major public debt deal.
- Demand was huge, with roughly $85 billion to $98 billion of orders.
- The 10-year tranche priced about 1.4 percentage points over Treasurys.
- Bonds weakened quickly after pricing.
- The 10-year yield rose near 6%, with the spread moving above 1.6 percentage points.
- Longer-dated 2046 and 2056 bonds took the most pressure.
- The pushback: bond buyers want more yield for a company still funding rockets, Starlink, AI/data-center spending, and Mars ambitions.
- Clean read: equity investors bought the story; bond investors immediately marked it down.Yentervention
- Yen weakened again, pushing toward the 162-per-dollar zone and near its weakest level in about 40 years.
- Japan keeps warning it is ready for "decisive action" or to respond "at any time."
- Market does not seem scared for long.
- Japan already spent heavily defending the yen, including a roughly $73 billion yen-buying operation after the currency broke past 160.
- U.S. rates are still high, the Fed is not rushing to cut, and the Bank of Japan is still moving slowly.
- That keeps the carry trade alive: borrow cheap yen, buy higher-yielding dollars.
- Japan's foreign reserves fell 5.6% in May after intervention, showing the defense is expensive.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' }}).render('#donate-button-2');
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SpaceX (SPCX)Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
Announcing the CTP for SpaceX.
MahJong Craze gone wild.
Goodbye to Alan Greenspan – The Maestro.
Have you seen RAM prices?
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?PayPal.Donation.Button({env:'production',hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J',image: {src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif',alt:'Donate with PayPal button',title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!',}}).render('#donate-button');
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Announcing the CTP for SpaceX
- MahJong Craze
- Goodbye to Alan Greenspan - The Maestro
- Have you seen RAM prices?Markets
- Economic Collapse Imminent?
- Breathe is narrowing again - chips chips chips are the only play
- Spacex coming back down to earth? What is that sucking sound?
-- Markets getting weird..... 3% down for NASDAQ 100 today - 8% for SMH and 14% for Memory ETF
- Just announced - Alphabet (Google) will replace Verizon in DJIADEDICATION: Alan Greenspan - Died Monday at age 100
Google Enters DJIA
- High priced shares
- Moves tech to 22% of DJIA from 17% or so - very meaningful move
- Every $1 move for Google = $7 move on DJIA
- Tech: S&P 500 (~30%+), Nasdaq (~50%+)Computer Pricing
- What as $2,000 a year ago for a nice desktop is not like $4,000
- Dell not holding pricing quotes - and even if they do, back ordered so prices could go up after order
- Will IPOs put more money in the pocket of tech companies to buy gear at any price?Endless
- SpaceX recently finalized two massive, multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence contracts: a $6.3 billion computing power agreement with Reflection AI and a $60 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor.
- AI Compute Deal with Reflection AI
- - - - The Terms: Reflection AI agreed to pay SpaceXAI $150 million per month from July 2026 through the end of 2029.
- - -- - - The Infrastructure: The startup will tap into hardware and GB300 chips housed at SpaceX’s Colossus 2 data center in Memphis, Tennessee.More SpaceX
- SpaceX shares were as high as $220 post IPO.
- Sharea ahve been down over the past 3 days.
- Most that got in POST IPO probably bought in at about $162-$165
- Newsline: SpaceX shares slipped for a third straight day, shedding hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, after the company said it is selling investment-grade bonds for the first time.
- The stock fell 16% Monday to close at $154.60, the lowest level since the company’s first day of trading, pushing its three-day loss to 23% and erasing over $600 billion in value over that period.
- SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20 billion from the first bond offering to fund its artificial-intelligence ambitions.Missed Opportunity
- Short the Mattress companies he said......
----- Got squeezed out....Never to returnSwing and a Miss
Maybe Because this can happen...
- Shares of Getty Images Holdings Inc. soared as much as 145% on Monday after it announced a licensing deal with OpenAI.
- Getty said that images from its library will appear in the search and discovery features of ChatGPT, marking a key reversal for the firm.
- The partnership with OpenAI could improve “licensing optics” and shift the narrative on the stock, according to analyst Mark Zgutowicz.
- Getty shares were up 118% to $1.32 as of 12:44 p.m. in New York, putting them on track for the best session since July 2022. The stock had fallen about 55% this year to close at 61 cents on Thursday before the Juneteenth holiday weekend began.KOREA - SK Hynix
- New #1 in South Korea: SK Hynix surpassed Samsung Electronics on Monday to become the country's most valuable listed company.
- Remarkable turnaround: A striking reversal for a chipmaker that nearly collapsed under heavy debt roughly two decades ago. (CYCLES)
- AI memory leader: Now the dominant supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips powering AI systems.
- Marquee customers: Key buyers include Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet's Google (GOOGL).
- Massive 2026 rally: Shares are up more than 340% year-to-date, fueled by the global AI boom.
- Market cap milestone: Valuation now exceeds both Samsung and Micron (MU).Markets Get Chopped
- Questions being asked about if AI spend boom producing fast enough return
- Back to earth on valuation scare - (all of a sudden?)
- KOSPI down 11%
- Chips getting hit - 12% for Memory ETF
- MU down 9%, Intel 4%, ASML 7%RAM Prices...
RAM Prices
- Looking at some additional RAM today for some office computers ....
--- ARE THEY KIDDING?Imminent Collapse????
- President Donald Trump said the prospect of global economic collapse was a big reason he signed an interim peace deal with Iran.
- According to sources, the deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and set in motion waivers for sanctions on Iran’s oil sales to the international market, with the effect being an immediate drop in oil prices and a rise in US stocks.
- The agreement has been seen as skewed in Iran’s favor, giving the country broad gains before the next round of talks, and has prompted pushback and anger from Republican lawmakers.
- MOU signed lat Wednesday - also now more waivers of sanctions on sale of Iranian oil - 60 day reprieve.China
- Weak economic conditions
- H Shares about to enter bear market
- Hong Kong
- Close to a technical bear market, dragged down by weak domestic consumption, a struggling property sector, and an exodus of funds fleeing "old tech" for AI plays elsewhere in Asia.
- A-shares are listed in mainland China (Shanghai/Shenzhen) and primarily target domestic investors. H-shares are listed in Hong Kong and are freely available to international investorsMore China
- Retail sales declined for the first time since December 2022, dropping 0.6% from a year earlier.
- China’s urban fixed-asset investment contracted 4.1% as of end-May, dragged by real estate and manufacturing.
- Manufacturing fixed-asset investment contracted for the first time since December 2020.
- Industrial output was the lone bright spot, rebounding from April’s near three-year low.
- The national unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in May, compared with 5.2% in April.Marrrr Jonggg
- Mahjong can be highly addictive due to its rewarding blend of strategy, luck, and social interaction. The rapid tile-drawing, need for pattern recognition, and "just one more round" mentality trigger dopamine releases. If compulsive play disrupts your finances or daily life, it can become a behavioral addiction requiring intervention.
- Tactile and Auditory Appeal: Many users on community forums like Reddit agree that the physical weight, texture, and distinct clinking sound of shuffling tiles provide soothing, sensory satisfaction.
- There has been a 70% surge in mahjong content on TikTok in the past year
- Yelp recently named the Chinese tile game a top trend of 2026, noting that searches for mahjong clubs surged 4,467% year over year for the period from September 2024 to August 2025 and that searches for mahjong lessons rose 819%.Alphabet - WHAT>????*&*^
- Alphabet shares slid 7%, on track for the search giant’s worst day in a year.
- Alphabet’s Google has seen consecutive high-profile researchers leave in the last several days.
- The company also has exposure to the market’s concerns around commoditized AI and ballooning capital expenditures.
- The share slide also came on the heels of a Sunday Wall Street Journal interview with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who called for less dependence on “AI Giants” and said the AI market was commoditized.Back to Oracle
- Oracle reduced workforce by 21,000 employees over past twelve months.
- Cuts broader than previously disclosed, driven by artificial intelligence adoption.
- Global headcount fell from 162,000 to 141,000 full-time employees year-over-year.
- Workforce reductions generated $1.8 billion in restructuring costs, company reported.
- Company warned AI deployment may continue resulting in workforce reductions.NVDA - Underperforming
- Nvidia shares slipping recently despite remaining up about 12% in 2026.
- Stock down roughly 3% past month, underperforming semiconductor peers.
- SMH ETF surged 84% year-to-date, gaining 15% last month.
- Traders predict Nvidia chip pricing power is beginning to decline.
- Wall Street focus shifting toward memory and infrastructure AI buildout.
- Micron and Sandisk shares jumped nearly 60% over past month.Gloom and Doom
- JCD sent interesting take from Chris Bloomstran
- Traditionally asset light companies with all sorts of revenue, high margins now....
---- Converting into asset heavy with no real understanding of what the profitability or even revue will be in the future
----- Here are the highlights of his commentary we can explre:
------------AI buildout shifting markets from asset-light toward capital-intensive infrastructure cycle
- Hyperscaler capex surge reflects move into heavy, long-duration asset base
- Massive capital requirements challenge economics versus prior asset-light models
- Depreciation burden rising sharply as infrastructure scales across AI ecosystem
- Returns depend on utilization of expensive, long-lived physical compute assets
- Asset-heavy cycles historically lead to overbuild, weak returns, eventual consolidation
- Infrastructure spending absorbing nearly all operating cash flow for hyperscalers
- Off-balance-sheet financing masking true scale of capital intensity shift
- AI economics hinge more on physical capacity than software-driven scalability
- Echoes of past asset-heavy booms with eventual oversupply and value destructionAmazon Day - Today - June 26th
- US consumers will spend $26.3 billion online at Amazon and other retailers during the four-day sale, up 9% from last year’s event in July, according to Adobe Inc.
- About 201 million Amazon shoppers in the US were Prime subscribers as of March, up about 3% from a year earlier
- Amazon will capture about 60% of all US online spending during Prime Day, its highest market share since 2019, according to estimates from EMarketer Inc.Chevron and Microsoft
- Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power.
- Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility.
- Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts.
- Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes.
- Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later.
- Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations.More Oil News - Drill baby Drill
- Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration.
- Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases.
- Bonds ensure cleanup costs don’t fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned.
- Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development.
- Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication.FedEx Earnings
- FedEx posted strong fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday in the company’s last quarter that included the freight business before its spin off.
- FedEx Freight spun off into a separate publicly traded company on June 1.
- The company said it saw a 3% year-over-year increase in domestic volume.
- Stock down 6% A/H
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
PayPal.Donation.Button({env:'production',hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J',image: {src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif',alt:'Donate with PayPal button',title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!',}}).render('#donate-button');
ANNOUNCING the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SpaceX (SPCX)Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
Missing episodes?
-
Let’s Make a Deal!
News Dominated by … SpaceX
This week – Fed rate Decision
Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
PayPal.Donation.Button({env:'production',hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J',image: {src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif',alt:'Donate with PayPal button',title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!',}}).render('#donate-button');Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Let's Make a Deal!
- News Dominated by ... SpaceX
- This week - Fed rate Decision
- Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)Markets
- Another V Formation - Nearing Highs again
- IPO Madness - Anthropic and OpenAi
- SpaceX IPO - could drain markets
- More AI valuations through the roofDEDICATION: Stu Schifter - my good friend of 30 years passed away last night... battled Cancer for 2 years.
Market Valuations
- S&P 500 Forward P/E = 22.5
- 10-yr average = 19–20x
- Long-term average 18-19
- Not cheap, pricing in a lot of earnings growth.- NASDAQ 100 forward P/E = 23-24
- 1-yr average ~23x
- 20-yr average ~20–21x
- Not screaming expensive on a forward basis
- - NOTE: Training P/E = 33-40NEW Playbook
- But the Rumor and Buy the News
- used to be Buy the Rumor and Sell the News
- This is why there is an announcement about something and then a date to follow....
- Monday = Deal, Friday = signingOn that note
- What is the deal anyway?
- Seems that we (USA) moving out our navy before the final
- Straights of Hormuz opening -??
- Has anyone seen the text?
- We are no better than we were before all this started...Headline Nonsense
- Fox Business: Beware the ticking time bomb hiding in your 401(k)
- Required minimum distributions can trigger taxes on Social Security benefits and boost Medicare premiums
- This is not a ticking time bomb. This is just reality when you have a lot saved and need to start withdrawals
- HOWEVER - there are ways around this and we have helped clients with this.
- - Listeners - if you have a 401k and think that you will be paying too much later on - we can take a look at the options...More Retirement Alerts
- Social Security running out again....
- Less that 10 year until the reserves are exhausted
- The Social Security Administration’s newly released 2026 Trustees Report confirms that the federal retirement safety net is less than seven years away from fiscal depletion, as the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will completely exhaust its accumulated reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032.
- Once the reserve dries up, ongoing tax revenues will cover only 78% of scheduled retirement benefits, according to the report.
- Some of the blame is being laid on the OBBBA with higher standard deductions and lower taxes on SS Benefits
- "The OBBBA also adds a temporary additional standard deduction for taxpayers over age 65," it says. "As a result, less income tax will be paid on Social Security benefits, and the OASI and DI Trust Funds will receive lower levels of revenue in the future from income taxation of Social Security benefits."PSA
- The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has classified a recall of more than 900 cases of Alfredo sauce at its highest risk level after a supplier recalled a dry milk powder ingredient used in the product due to potential salmonella contamination.
- The FDA designated the recall as a Class I event, its most serious classification, meaning there is a reasonable probability that use of or exposure to the product could cause serious adverse health consequences or death.
- The Coffee Connexion Co., Inc.
- According to the FDA, the product was distributed in Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.Monday Markets
- 5:45PM Sunday night we see an announcement that there is a Deal!
- Why 5:45PM????????
- Futures rally, oil drops
- This is just days after the market already surged after a Truth Social post last Thursday that said that the US will "soon" sign a deal with IRAN
---- That pushed up markets quite a bit too
- Buy the rumor and buy the news...Reality Check
- Thursday: Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that “we have a deal that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
- Monday: 60-day period delay to continue discussions of nuclear issues
- Is there a sucker in all of this?$ for IRAN
- Supposedly there i some deal...
- A $300 billion private fund designed ?to trigger investment into Iran is outlined in the U.S.-Iran framework agreement and more than half that sum has already been committed, a source with ?direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters.
- The fund is designed to give both sides an economic incentive to conclude a final deal, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan has not yet been announced as Washington and Tehran prepare to sign on Friday.SpaceX
- IPO - Finally!
$135 per share - Rose to $160+/- on the debut day
- Rather smooth process and very orderly
- A total of $85B was raised - due to an add-on additional green-shoe that was allowed ($10B) for institutions.
- Rose another $20% on Monday
- Retail got about 20% of the deal (down from 30%)Oracle
- Oracle Corp. shares declined after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, raising investor concerns about the profitability of the AI infrastructure business.
- The company expects to spend about $70 billion on net capital expenditures in the current fiscal year, and plans to raise another $40 billion in equity and debt.
- Oracle's cloud infrastructure business gained 93% to $5.8 billion, and total cloud revenue is projected to jump about 61% in the quarter ending in August.
- The increase of $5B over the course of the year was disconcerting to investors.
- Shares dropped the most in over 6 months on the newsCPI and PPI
- May CPI was mixed but generally cooler on the core reading, with headline CPI up 0.5% month-over-month, matching consensus, while Core CPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus and below Briefing's 0.4% estimate.
- The softer core CPI reading suggests some easing in underlying consumer inflation pressures, which is the more constructive part of the inflation picture.
- May PPI was firmer than expected on the headline reading, with PPI up 1.1% versus 0.7% consensus and 0.8% Briefing estimate, matching the prior month's revised 1.1% pace.
- Core PPI rose 0.4%, matching consensus and coming in below the prior month's revised 0.7%, indicating wholesale inflation remained elevated but did not accelerate further on the core measure.
- Taken together, the CPI and PPI reports point to a mixed inflation backdrop: consumer-level core inflation looked somewhat better, but producer-level price pressures remained sticky.Cyberdyne
- Anthropic announced Claude Fable 5, a Mythos-class model that will be available to its enterprise customers and paid subscribers.
- The company unveiled Mythos in April and has limited the rollout because of its advanced cybersecurity capabilities.
- Anthropic said Claude Fable 5?s broad release is possible because of new safeguards that block responses in specific high-risk areas.
- WAIT! The US government PULLED the plug on Mythos and Fable for any foreign national
- From Anthropic - The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Anthropic models will not be affected.OpenAi
- Confidentially flies for IPO
- Sends financials and IPO materials to regulators - making sue all in good order.
- This allows the company to iron out accounting, compliance, and regulatory issues in private without triggering a "media circus" or alerting competitors to their financialsLast Friday.....
- Nonfarm payrolls jumped a seasonally adjusted 172,000 for the period, down slightly from the upwardly revised 179,000 in April and far above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 80,000.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and were up 3.4% over the past year, both in line with the Wall Street consensus.Screwworm
- The New World screwworm has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County, Texas, the first known case of that fly in the United States since 2017.
- New World screwworm larvae “burrow into the flesh of living animals, causing serious damage to livestock and economic losses,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
- The USDA and Texas officials are taking immediate action to contain and eradicate the pest.
- In December, the Food and Drug Administration granted conditional approval to the topical solution Exzolt Cattle-CA1, which is used to prevent and treat New World screwworm infestations and is produced by Merck & Co.
- What is going to happen to beef prices?Real Estate
- Nationwide, 5.8% of all home listings were pulled off the market in April, according to Redfin.
- Delistings were up 3.8% compared with March.
- Atlanta saw the highest share of homes come off the market in April, with 1 in 10 delisted. San Jose, California, followed with roughly 9% pulled, then Los Angeles (7.8%), Dallas (7.8%) and Seattle (7.7%).In other news....
- The Japanese city of Utsunomiya has suspended all 94 of the primary and middle schools ?that it operates on Monday after its ?first-ever bear sighting, a municipal official said.
- The city of half-a-million residents about 100 km (60 miles) north of Tokyo said ?the bear was first seen in a residential ?area near a park on Saturday evening. It ?remains at large after the last sighting early ?Monday morning about half a kilometre from a ?middle school.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
PayPal.Donation.Button({env:'production',hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J',image: {src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif',alt:'Donate with PayPal button',title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!',}}).render('#donate-button');
The Winner for the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SALESFORCE (CRM)Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
Another good month – investors are giddy.
Oil – CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball).
Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control.
A major name says they are reducing stocks – but are they really?
Announcing the Winner of the CTP for Salesforce (CRM).
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
PayPal.Donation.Button({env:'production',hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J',image: {src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif',alt:'Donate with PayPal button',title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!',}}).render('#donate-button');Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Another good month - investors are giddy
- Oil - CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball)
- Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control
- A major name says they are reducing stocks - but are they really?
- Announcing the Winner of the CTP for SalesforceMarkets
- Huge reversal in Software stocks
- A few names on the move - and moving BIG!
- SpaceX IPO - could drain markets
- More AI valuations through the roofPizza Mouth !
Reversal
- Software stocks bounced this week on strong results from Snowflake and Okta, which both recorded their best days on record.
- The results signal that investors may have been too quick to declare the end of software with the emergence of artificial intelligence.
- Even as AI displaces certain tools and job functions, many software companies continue to show growth, assisted by their own AI products.
- The iShares Expanded Tech-Software exchange-traded fund rose 8% this week and closed May up 21%, the best monthly performance for the ETF since October 2001.
- With this month’s rally, the iShares software ETF is only down 3.8% for the year, still badly trailing the Nasdaq, which has gained 18% in 2026.Snowflake
- Amazon said Wednesday that its cloud division has landed a $6 billion spending commitment from Snowflake, which includes the use of the company’s custom silicon and chips for artificial intelligence.
- Snowflake’s purchase of services and technology from Amazon Web Services will occur over five years, according to a press release about the agreement.
- Snowflake intends to expand its use of Amazon’s Graviton general-purpose chips, as well as cloud-based graphics processing units for AI.
- Snowflake and Amazon are frenemies - they compete but also partner with each other.
- Stock up 36% on this newsDELL!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Dell Technologies Inc. shares surged due to an outlook for annual sales that far surpassed expectations on demand for servers that power artificial intelligence work.
- Revenue in the fiscal year ending in January 2027 will be about $167 billion, including $60 billion from the sale of AI servers, topping analysts’ average estimate of $142.1 billion.
- The company booked $24.4 billion in AI orders and generated $16.1 billion in AI server sales in the quarter ended May 1, with Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke saying “The AI opportunity shows no signs of slowing.”
- The shares surged 33% to $420.91 at the close Friday in New York, the biggest single-day increase in the more than seven years since the hardware maker returned to the public markets after a five-year hiatus as a private firm.
- Up 150% YTDMore Dell
- New XPS 13 at $699 targets price-sensitive market
- Aims to compete with MacBook Neo, lower-end Windows devices
- Launch amid global memory chip crunch to gain market share
- WINING OVER JCD:
-- 13.4-inch screen (very compact footprint)
Options: 2K / 2.5K LCD (120Hz)
OLED touchscreen (higher contrast)|
- Very thin bezels ? almost edge?to?edge screen
- Weighs 2.2 lbs - one of the lightes out there and a rival to Apple's Macbook NeoInfighting
- OpenAI may release multi-chip AI software, challenging Nvidia's (NVDA) ecosystem advantage, according to The Information
- Oh, and NVDA is now releasing a CPU for PCs that is aggrevating Intel and AMDKaboom!
- Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket exploded in a massive fireball while undergoing a test on a Florida launchpad, dealing a major setback to the company.
- The explosion is the latest blow to New Glenn's reputation as a reliable alternative to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, and Blue Origin’s launch schedule is certain to suffer significant delays.
- The incident will also affect Amazon’s ambitions to build out its Leo satellite network and may delay Blue Origin's role in NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to send humans back to the moon.
- As important as it will be for Blue Origin to diagnose the cause of the rocket explosion, it could take many months to repair its launchpad in Florida.Taking Down - Really?
- BlackRock Inc. is trimming its bet on stocks across its model-portfolio business as US equities surge to record highs following a strong earnings season.
- The firm cut its overweight position in equities from 3% to 1%, triggering billions of dollars of flows between BlackRock’s exchange-traded funds.
- BlackRock remains confident in equities and will maintain positions that bet on growing corporate profits, artificial intelligence and government spending, but is rotating away from longer-dated US debt in favor of global fixed-income and liquid alternatives.Slight
Strategy: keep supply constrained, which:supports price discoverymaintains founder controlcreates early scarcity dynamics
- SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in its initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter.
- The company is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion, which would make it the biggest IPO of all time, and is expected to start formal marketing of its IPO as soon as June 4.
-SpaceX had $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, and the company's pitch to investors shows its evolution into an AI services and infrastructure giant with a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion.
- 3-5% of the shares will be floated (TIGHT)- - - SpaceX has reserved 5% of the shares ?in its planned initial public offering for certain employees and individuals selected by its executive officers, exempting them from post-IPO lock-up restrictions
AND.. Even more Valuations
- AI giant Anthropic is now worth more than OpenAI.
- Anthropic announced a $65 billion Series H financing at a $965 billion valuation, a round led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital.
- The financing puts its valuation above that of rival AI lab OpenAI.
- The valuation has TRIPLED since FebruaryLet's GO!
- Shares of LG Electronics surged as much as 24% after the company announced a series of automotive innovations built with technology from Alphabet Inc.’s Google.
- The company said its new range of solutions is built on Android automotive operating systems. Its system can control multiple displays with different aspect ratios at the same time by using a single-on-chip, which is different from other conventional in-vehicle display systems, LG said.
- But 24% on this news?
- More reason that the KOSPI is moving higherNo One Care - But...
- Inflation has been above the 2% target for 5 years now
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Thursday that bringing down inflation in the U.S. remains his top priority, warning that consumer prices are still “much too high.”|
- Speaking to CNBC’s Kaori Enjoji at the Bank of Japan-IMES Conference, Kashkari said that the U.S. central bank would continue taking a “balanced approach” to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.
- 5 YEARS!
---- What that tells us is that the Fed is totally unable to do anything about inflation .... Are we the only ones that see that?Inside Baseball
- From a colegie that will go un-named.
--- Let's just say he is someone who knows what they are talking about and runs BIG money
----- This is what he said to me.....
- Apparently, oil execs were opining with POTUS in meetings yesterday that oil inventories are at alarmingly low levels and oil prices could soon skyrocket (I might soften that language a bit but they know the oil biz better than me) if SoH does not open soon.
- I ran a few numbers on total oil inventories including and excluding the SPR.
- Total supplies are 10th percentile vs history (although that includes a period when the SPR ramped from 0 to 600mln barrels in the 1980’s).
- Today it is 4th percentile if you start from 1990 when the SPR was basically full.
- The 4 week net and % draw the last 3 weeks are the largest draws of all time.
- And not surprising the 1 week net and % draw of the SPR are also the 2 largest draws of all time the last 2 weeks.Surprised - No....
--- This is another story similar to what we saw a few months ago
- Taiwan prosecutors suspect that three individuals smuggled at least one shipment of Nvidia Corp. AI chips to China after first exporting them to Japan.
- The trio was detained for allegedly falsifying documents related to exports of Super Micro Computer Inc. servers containing advanced Nvidia chips, which the US has barred from sale to China without a license.
- Taiwan authorities seized about 50 servers for which they accuse the trio of preparing fraudulent export documents, but at least one shipment had already gone through Taiwan customs and made it to Hong Kong.Under/Over?
- Tesla will be somehow folder/merged or taken over by SpaceX in an all stock deal
- Tesla market cap is $1.6 Trillion so that will be a tough one to take on as SpaceX is about equal in size.
---- If this happens, when ?Mini Retirement - Is this a THING?
- A mini retirement is when you take a planned break from working, usually for a few months to a couple of years, instead of waiting until age 65+ to fully retire.
- Tim Feerris popularized this... (4 day workweek dude)Step 1: Work & save aggressively
2–10+ years
Build a specific “freedom fund”Step 2: Take time off
3 months to 2 years
Travel, recharge, pursue interests, or experiment with new ideasStep 3: Return to work
Same career… or pivot to something new
Then repeat if desired.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Announcing the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SALESFORCE (CRM)Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
Oil Drops – Still highest cost for Memorial Day in years
Consumer Sentiment Drops again
New Fertilizer coming – Kinda Soilent Green vibe
Everyone is talking about SpaceX
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
PayPal.Donation.Button({env:'production',hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J',image: {src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif',alt:'Donate with PayPal button',title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!',}}).render('#donate-button');Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Oil Drops - Still highest cost for Memorial Day in years
- Consumer Sentiment Drops again
- New Fertilizer coming - Kinda Soilent Green Concept
- Everyone is talking about SpaceXMarkets
- Nothing Really Matters - Anyone can see - New HIGHS
- Governments picking the winners again
- CHIPS !
- ConcentrationNVDA
- Over the weekend, Jensen Huang said that his forecast of a $200 billion market for CPUs includes China, signalling Nvidia still sees significant long-term demand in the market amid ongoing U.S.-China technology tensions.
- During an earnings call on Wednesday, Huang said Nvidia's new "Vera" central processors give it access to a new $200 billion market.
- So, once again the PR machine is running overtime to make sure there is no reason for anyone to sell the stock - needed to make this clarification over the weekend
- Nvidia has received licenses from the U.S. government to sell its H200 chips but has not received approval from Chinese officials who are fostering China's own chip suppliers.Consumers
- Consumer sentiment has tumbled to a fresh record low in May as fears of higher prices grow due to the U.S.-Iran war and elevated oil prices, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said Friday.
- The index of consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2. It’s also well below the 49.8 level seen at the end of April.Consumers Upset
South Korea
- Record after record...
- This is an impressive chart
- Two companies -Samsung and SK Hynix
-----40% of the entire KOSPI index's total market capitalization.Kospi Index
Who Believes this Crap?
- U.S. forces have conducted “self defense” strikes in southern Iran early Tuesday, with U.S. Central Command saying that this was to “protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.“
- “U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Hawkins added.
- Meanwhile there was some talk over the weekend that
--- 1) We are very close to a deal and it will happen soon
----2) We are in no rush for a deal
----3) How many times is this same line going to be used to try to push the price of oil down (it did move towards $90 after the weekend resumption of futures trading)
- Neither side can agree on anything... Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the United States has seen some progress towards a deal but that more work was required, while Iran's foreign ministry said the differences remained deep and significant.
- TiresomeCEO of Ford
- Did you know -???
- The CEO of Ford (Jim Farley) is cousin to Chris FarleyFarley and Farley
Crops
- Farmers worldwide are under pressure due to the Iran war disrupting supplies of conventional nitrogen fertilizers, forcing them to improvise ahead of the fall planting season.
- Some farmers are turning to age-old solutions like manure, while others are experimenting with newer technologies, including waste-based inputs and microbial products.
-----Circular bio-economy
The crisis is giving fresh momentum to products that have long struggled to gain widespread adoption, with demand for biofertilizers and biostimulants rising and companies seeing rising interest and increased sales.
- Municipal wastewater and treated human urine, which contain high levels of nutrients that can be processed.
---- So, if your corn is a little extra yellow this summer - now you know...Government's Hand
- Quantum computing shares popped last Thursday, as the U.S. government said it would award $2 billion in grants to nine firms operating in the space.
- IBM is the biggest beneficiary of the package, with the U.S. Commerce Department agreeing to give the firm $1 billion.
- Chipmaker GlobalFoundries is receiving $375 million, while other grant recipients D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion will be awarded $100 million.
- Shares of D-Wave added 33%, Rigetti soared 30% and Infleqtion skyrocketed about 31%.
- Funding will come from the 2022 Chips and Science Act.More Money Throwing
- Nvidia Corp. bought $500 million worth of rights for shares in Corning Inc. as part of a partnership to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure.
- Corning pledged to increase US fiber production capacity by more than 50% to supply more optical fiber for AI data centers.
- The partnership includes Corning's plan to construct three new complexes in North Carolina and Texas, which is estimated to create more than 3,000 new US jobs.DEBT
- Global debt hits new record, IIF (institute for International Finance) report shows
- Global debt rose for a fifth consecutive quarter in Q1 2026, increasing by more than $4.4 trillion to a record high of over $350 trillion, with the increase concentrated largely in the United States and China.
- Investors shows signs of shift away from Treasuries
- Global debt-to-GDP ratio stable around 305%
- NOTHING TO SEE HEREGlobal Debt
More Charts
AI Reality?
- Starbucks retires AI tool nine months after North American deployment
- Tool was part of CEO Brian Niccol's campaign to fix product shortages
- AI tool miscounted items, leading to errors, Reuters has reported
Starbucks cites need for consistency, supply chain improvements in ending programMore AI
- Elon Musk's Grok is seeing minimal adoption in US government - even though it's cheap-
- Grok lags far behind OpenAI and other rivals that analysts call more capable
- Data shows uptake by corporations is also weak, suggesting Grok's problems stretch beyond government
- Is it possible that corps don't trust Musk after the way he heavy handled the DOGE process?
- Is this going to impact SpaceX growth story?Employment and Ai
- The co-founder of AI company Anthropic said on Monday that the development of artificial intelligence cannot be left solely to technology companies, urging greater oversight from religious leaders, governments and civil society.
- Speaking at the presentation of Pope Leo's first encyclical, addressing the challenges posed by artificial intelligence, Chris Olah said there was "a real possibility" that AI will displace human labour "at very large scale".Scared
- China is restricting overseas travel for top AI professionals in private firms, requiring them to get approval from relevant authorities before embarking on overseas travel.
- The government is targeting talent within the AI sphere, including startup founders, researchers, and executives, and adding individuals to the list based on assessments of their critical importance to the country.
- The restrictions risk undermining the ability of AI firms in China to recruit and retain talent, and may force engineers with global ambitions to choose between staying home or going abroad earlier in their careers.CHIPS
- Micron topped a $1 trillion market value for the first time on Tuesday as shares popped 18%, driven by insatiable artificial intelligence demand for its memory chips.
- The stock surge came as UBS tripled its price target on the stock from $535 to $1,625 a share, citing long-term agreement opportunities with partially fixed pricing.
- “We believe the market will start to put a more ‘normal’ multiple on the stock and MU will continue to re-rate higher as more details emerge about the structural changes AI has driven to the entire memory complex,” the firm wrote.SpaceX
- Lots of interest on this...
- Lots of clients calling on this and we are working on this for them
- Here is a bit of a reality check...
--- First - company still losing billions of dollars - some may look past that
- - Weird inclusion period for indices and that may take stock up due to required buying ahead of the inclusion (keeping a floor on prices in the beginning)
---- SpaceX plans to allow a large portion of its shares to become eligible for resale before the usual six-month restriction period post-IPO, under a staged system conditioned to the company's performance, a company filing shows.
- The approach, designed to avoid a large wave of shares hitting the market at once, would depart from the standard 180-day lock-up that has prevailed in the U.S. Most companies going public restrict early investors from selling shares to help stabilize the stock.
- Valuation somewhere between $1.5T and $2T (a year ago it was like $400 million)
- Valuation in December was $750 M
- Rationale for the big valuation: SpaceX is leveraging its satellite network to build massive, space-based AI data centers, which take advantage of limitless solar energy and off-planet coolingRetail
- Ross Stores Inc. raised its sales and profit guidance after first-quarter results surpassed consensus estimates, aided by strong customer traffic among younger shoppers.
- The company reported sales of $6.01 billion and earnings of $2.02 per share, with same-store sales growing 17% in the period, a record for Ross.
- Ross now expects full-year same-store sales to grow 6% to 7%, and earnings of $7.50 to $7.74 per share, with executives citing increased customer traffic as a key driver of profit.Meanwhile
- Walmart issued a worse-than-expected financial outlook amid soaring gas prices.
- Finance chief John David Rainey said high tax returns may have muted some of the impact high gas prices had on shoppers in the first quarter, indicating consumer pressures could rise in the current quarter
- The big-box retailer issued fiscal first-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations on the top line but were only in line on the bottom.
- The retailer said it’s expecting adjusted earnings per share to be between $2.75 and $2.85, lower than expectations of $2.91, according to LSEG.
- Walmart said it anticipates net sales will rise between 3.5% and 4.5% for the year.Ferrari - Electric
- Ferrari (RACE) is trading lower today after the company unveiled its first fully electric vehicle, the Ferrari Luce, marking a major strategic shift away from its traditional combustion-engine supercar identity.
- The Luce is a four-door, five-seat ultra-luxury EV developed with former Apple (AAPL) design chief Jony Ive, featuring a quad-motor setup producing over 1,000 horsepower, a 0--60 mph time of roughly 2.5 seconds, and a price tag around $640,000.
- Despite these headline-grabbing performance specs, investors reacted negatively because the design is seen as a sharp break from RACE's iconic styling, with many critics arguing it looks closer to a mass-market EV than a traditional Ferrari.Saying goodbye
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
- One of America’s once-dominant beer brands is being discontinued after more than 175 years.
- Schlitz Premium, a beer brand that traces its roots to Milwaukee in the 1840s and was once among the largest breweries in the country, is being put "on hiatus," parent company Pabst Brewing Co. confirmed Friday after Wisconsin Brewing Company announced it would brew the brand’s final batch later this month.
- "Unfortunately, we have seen continued increases in our costs to store and ship certain products and have had to make the tough choice to place Schlitz Premium on hiatus," Zac Nadile, Pabst head of brand strategy, said in a statement to Milwaukee Magazine.
Announcing the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SALESFORCE (CRM)Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
– Happy Memorial Day
– A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh – good luck fella, you are going to need it sir.
– The new transient inflation.
– Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs…
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Happy Memorial Day
- A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh - good luck fella, you are going to need it
- The new transient inflation
- Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs...Markets
- Starting to come in a bit.....
- Yield curve steepening - potential for a hike over cuts
- YIELDS!
- Fuels running low - we have the listOH MY...
- The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to around 5.14%, putting it at its highest level since the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis
- Bets are pricing in the increasingly possibility of it reaching 5.5% to 6%, which would mark the highest levels since late 1999
- 30-Year mortgage near 6.35% (average) - DOWN from 6.91% at start of 202630-Year Yield
Bored of Boards
- The Board of Peace - remember that one? That was established in 2025 with 15+ countries that pitched in $1 billion for permanent seat
- Indefinitely chaired by President Trump, the governing board is a mix of U.S. officials and prominent American businessmen.
- So much for the peace part of that....
- Now we hear about the Board of Investment
---The US and China are discussing a mechanism for fast-tracking some Chinese investment deals and a reduction in tariffs on non-critical goods.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned a "Board of Investment" that will be responsible for investment in non-sensitive areas.
- The idea of the "Board of Investment" is to have a mechanism that could allow deals that wouldn’t need to be referred to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.
- In other words - working outside of the established channels that primary function is to determine whether these transactions pose risks to U.S. national security.IRAN
- On and off as usual
- Cancelled a scheduled bombing?
- President Trump speaking with reporters says he will know "soon" if U.S. needs to give Iran another big hit; says Gulf states are helping with negotiations; says Iran keeps agreeing to things and changing their mind; says Iran has 2-3 days to make a deal
- This is the parental attempt to manupluate a child - I am going to count to THREE.... 1-2-3-4-5-6China Trip
- Chinese President Xi Jinping warned U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday that the U.S. and China “will have clashes and even conflicts” if the long-standing issue of Taiwan’s independence is mishandled.
- Speaking just ahead of Trump, Xi noted the global attention on the meeting, and said a major question for the two countries was whether they could avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” according to an official English translation of his remarks broadcast by CCTV.
- The Thucydides Trap refers to how tensions historically between a rising and ruling power have often resulted in a war.Some Observations
- Veggie Prices are off the charts
--- Cauliflower $9, Carrots $6 small bag (not organic)
- - Favorite produce store noticed things going bad.... Realized that people are not buying stuffPPI Inflation - HOTTTTTTTT
- Headline MoM: +1.4%
- YoY: +6.0%
- Core PPI (ex food & energy): about +1.0% MoM
- Energy was a big part, but services also saw a large move
- Highest monthly increase since march 2022
--- In reaction bonds are selling off - highest on 10 and 30 year since March 2024 (10 YR Broke above 4.65)Outbreak
- An Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has been declared a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization
- 80 deaths were attributed to the disease.
- Outbreak does not meet pandemic criteria, WHO says
- Eight laboratory-confirmed cases and 246 suspected cases
- At least six Americans in the DRC have been exposed to the Ebola virus, with three exposures deemed high riskWHAT?
- One of the highest margin foods, pizza and pasta
- Domino's Pizza, is among the pizza giants whose franchisees have filed for bankruptcy
- Papa Johns: We have identified approximately 300 underperforming restaurants across North America that are not meeting brand expectations or lack a clear path to sustainable financial improvement, as well as locations where we can effectively transfer sales to a nearby restaurant
- Pizza Hut, which also hasn't filed for bankruptcy (YET) , won't be left out of closings as the company's parent Yum! Brands in February said that it would close 250 underperforming locations as part of its Hut Forward plan in the first half of 2026.
- PZZA down 65% over the past 5 years
- The Papa John's board formally ousted founder and former CEO John "Papa" John" Schnatter in a series of steps culminating in July 2018 and March 2019BONDS - Yields Spiking
- U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Friday following a week of messy inflation data and as traders looked to price interest rate policy under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
- The yield on the 30-year bond jumped nearly 11 basis points to yield 5.121%, the highest since May 22, 2025, and nearing the highest since October 2023.
- Japanese long-term bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) hitting 2.8%—its highest level since October 1996M&A Utilities
- U.S. power companies NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy announced a plan to merge on Monday in a $66.8 billion deal that ?will form one of the world's largest electric utilities during an expansion of energy-intensive data centers to support artificial intelligence.
- The all-stock transaction, which is pending ?regulatory approvals, is one of the largest-ever energy mergers.
- Industry consolidation -
-- This year, AES Corp agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and Swedish ?private-equity firm EQT AB for $33.4 billion.
---- That followed Constellation Energy's $16 billion deal with Calpine and Blackstone's $11.5 billion deal for TXNM Energy last year.SOYBEANS
- Trump's visit to China yielded little in the way of anything
- The United States expects China to sign up to buy "double-digit billions" worth of U.S. farm goods following a summit between Presidents Donald ?Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on ?Friday.
- Greer noted the 25 million metric ton per year soybean deal agreed last October and said the U.S. also expects to "see an agreement for double-digit billion purchases of ags over the next three years per year ?coming out of this visit."
- Soybeans and other commodity prices moved higher on Monday as the news was disseminated.CHYNA Deals?
- Looks like Boeing got an order of 200 more planes from China.
---- The problem is that was much less that was expected
-- Boeing was down on the news.
- Some murmurs about China buying more energy (oil, gas) from US
- - - There was also something said about President Xi asking about the US intentions of TaiwanBessent - Transitory
- Even with recent inflation news universally bad, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects price pressures to ease soon, just in time for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to take over.
-- Why are we listening to this crew? They have been wrong about everything - but say it with such confidence.
- WAIT FOR IT......
- “I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock, and we can, we can look through that, because before the Iranian conflict began, core inflation was coming down.
- He noted that he sees substantial disinflation ahead
----- IF there is substantial disinflation that would be bad news as the economy will be slowing precipitously - could be problematic - so it is not clear what he is so excited aboutEarnings
- NVDA is going to be position earnings Wednesday after the close
- So far Semiconductor companies and storage companies have been saying that the orders keep flowing in and
- Wall Street analysts project EPS of $1.78 on revenue of $79.2 billion, representing a year-over-year revenue increase of roughly 80%.Open AI - Musk
- R0und 1- Musk looses on what looks to be a technicality
- Perhaps jurors were miffed that he skipped closing arguments and went to China instead (to be the the Trump Posse)
- Naturally he is already discussing appealEven more Create Financing
- Google (GOOG/GOOGL) and Blackstone (BX) are drawing significant investor attention following the announcement of TPU Cloud, a new U.S.-based joint venture designed to commercialize GOOG's Tensor Processing Unit infrastructure at greater scale.
- The partnership underscores the accelerating arms race in AI infrastructure, while also highlighting how hyperscalers are increasingly turning to alternative financing structures to fund the enormous capital requirements tied to next-generation AI compute expansion.Fuel Shortages
- In case anyone thought otherwise - the Straight is till closed.Fuel Running Low
- India: Severe LPG (cooking gas) shortages, rationing in many areas
- Pakistan & Bangladesh: Critical LPG and diesel shortages
- Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia): Jet fuel & diesel shortages, flight cuts
- South Korea & Taiwan: Tight jet fuel and refined product stocks
- Europe (especially UK): Jet fuel critically low, risk of flight cancellations
- Africa (South Africa, Nigeria, parts of East Africa): Jet fuel and import shortages
- CUBA - OUTCooking Fuel (LPG) Shortages
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
- India: Severe shortages, long queues, rationing
- Pakistan: Critical LPG shortage, heavy rationing
- Bangladesh: Major shortages, price spikes
- Nepal & Sri Lanka: Supply cuts, half-filled cylinders common
- Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, etc.): Tight supplies and high prices
- Africa: Sharp price increases, reduced affordability
- Europe/US: Mostly higher prices, no major physical shortages
Announcing the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SALESFORCE (CRM)Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
A torn Meniscus – that is what they say… now what?
The beginning of UBI as a response from the AI boom?
Black in packaging – byproduct of war
Markets – – Up up and away!
– New inflation data is in…
– The Circular Economy – Great chart….
– Some inflation factsPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Torn Meniscus - that is what they say... now what?
- The beginning of UBI as a response from the AI boom?
- Black in packaging - byproduct of war
- Insights into consumer confidence reportsMarkets
- Up up and away!
- New inflation data is in...
- The Circular Economy - Great chart....
- Some inflation facts
- From the TACO trade to the NACHO tradeThe new CTP for Salesforce is open for entries!
From TACO to NACHO
- Not A Chance Hormuz Opens
- - New phrase being used in the oil pits and trading floorsLife Support
- President Trump tells reporters that ceasefire with Iran is on "massive life support"; says Iran's peace proposal was a "piece of garbage"Going to CHYNA
- President Donald Trump has invited executives from some of the biggest U.S. companies — including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg — to join his trip to China this week, according to a White House official.
- Also expected to join Trump’s delegation for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping are Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, Cargill’s Brian Sikes, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser, Coherent’s Jim Anderson, GE Aerospace’s H. Lawrence Culp Jr., Goldman Sachs’s David Solomon, Illumina’s Jacob Thaysen, Mastercard’s Michael Miebach, Meta Platforms executive Dina Powell McCormick, Micron Technology’s Sanjay Mehrotra, Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon and Visa’s Ryan McInerney, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the list has not been announced.
- Jensen Huang supposedly not invitedInflation Report Today
- Total CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month in April, as expected, following a 0.9% increase in March. That left total CPI up 3.8% year-over-year versus 3.3% in March.
- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, jumped 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a 0.2% increase in March. That left core - CPI up 2.8% year-over-year versus 2.6% in March.
----Key Factors
- The food index was up 0.5% month-over-month and up 3.2% year-over-year.
- The energy index was up 3.8% month-over-month and up 17.9% year-over-year.
- The shelter index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.
- The used cars and trucks index was flat month-over-month and down 2.7% year-over-year.
- The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 4.2% year-over-year.
- The services index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 3.4% year-over-year (services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% year-over-year).
- The all items index less food, shelter, and energy was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.Consumer Confidence
- Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.
“Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump,” the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, said.
- The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading for May came in at 48.2, below the 50.5 consensus estimate and below the prior 49.8 final reading for April.
---Note: Conference board's consumer confidence reading was actually better than last month so there is a discrepancy in reports.
- Conference Board measure as highly important because it is widely followed and often tied closely to labor-market perceptions, while the Michigan survey is also closely watched for inflation-sensitive consumer attitudes.Thwarted!
- Google’s Threat Intelligence Group said hackers are using AI models such as OpenClaw to uncover and exploit zero-day software vulnerabilities.
- GTIG said it has “high confidence” that it recorded hackers using an AI model to find and exploit a zero-day vulnerability, or a software flaw unknown to developers, creating a way to bypass two-factor authentication.
-The group said in a report that it had uncovered and likely thwarted an AI-developed attack.
- Anthropic delayed its Mythos model rollout due to cybersecurity concerns, but current models are being used by hackers.
- How are we going to stop the hackers from using powerful AI models to hack?Circular Economy
- Great GraphicCircular
Always Money to be made...
- US derivatives exchange CME Group Inc. and index provider Silicon Data are teaming up to create a futures market for computing power.
- The futures will help traders, financial firms, AI builders and cloud providers manage volatility and price swings, according to a statement.
- CME CEO Terry Duffy said compute is "the new oil of the 21st century" and creating a futures market can help make the costs more transparent.
----- One more way to pump this as now there is ways to further inflate costs through a leveraged futures marketPrivate Credit Transparency?
- Faster mark-to-market plans
- Apollo Global Management Inc. has been stepping up efforts to provide liquidity and price transparency in the private-credit market, where assets don’t typically change hands.
- Last week, the firm said more than $830 billion of its credit assets will be priced daily by the end of September. "
- Others in the industry are not so happy about this.
- Most say that this is little more that lipstick on a pigNo Problem
- Congress is looking to suspend the federal gas tax for a few months
- Trump backing
- $0.18 per gallon tax in a effort to reduce gas prices that are now approx $4.40 average per gallon higher than before the war
- War not changed, Iran still stringing us along.
- Under/Over how long it will take until next Ceasefire bombings start?
- Will a sprinkle of warfare prior to China visit be in the cards as a show of strength?AI Jobs
- Kevin Hassett says that AI isn't costing anybody their jobs rights now
- EVEN THOUGH TECH CONTINUES LAYOFFS
- Why bother even listening to these guys?
- Major deep discussion on this on TDI Podcast this week
-- WORTH THE LISTENAsian Markets
- Continuing to brush off any worries about oil prices, escalation or valuations that are in the stratosphere
- Korea - as we discussed this would be the case is up a staggering 78% last year and already up 81% this year
- Market cap has increased $2.7 trillion over the past year
- The massive wealth increase has been heavily concentrated. Tech giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix accounted for the vast majority of the gains, with individual rallies of up to 382% over the year.Strange
- The retail trades added nearly 22,000 jobs in April, accounting for almost one-fifth of total job growth.
- In March, retailers posted their largest number of monthly job openings since 2023.
- Retailers are more confident after seeing consumers keep their wallets open in the face of an uncertain economy and higher gas prices.
- Nearly 15.5 million employees now hold retail industry jobs, the most since July 2024.
- What is strange is the UMich confidence hit another all-time low last Friday for the latest prelim reading for the monthANALlysts
- The earnings upgrades for tech are not just incremental
- Examples:
- Seagate Tech target raised to $1000 from $750 at Evercore ISI, cites HAMR-driven multi-year HDD growth, pricing power, and strong AI/data center demand backdrop
- AMD - Goldman Sachs upgraded to Buy and raised its price target dramatically (e.g., to $450 from $240). Other firms like Bernstein (to $525), Barclays, KeyBanc, TD Cowen, and Baird also hiked targets significantly (many by $200+)
- Several other names upgrades with big ranges of price increasesUBI Starting...?
- South Korea should consider institutional ways to redistribute potential excess tax revenue generated by the AI infrastructure boom to help ease inequalities that could deepen in an AI-driven era, a top presidential policy aide said.
- President Kim proposed the principle, tentatively named a “national dividend,” underlining that gains from AI infrastructure should be understood as the product of South Korea’s collectively built industrial foundation.
- In his Facebook post on Monday, Kim explained that "the central question of the AI era is not simply about growth rates, but about how to socially stabilize excess profits."Black ink
- Calbee to switch its brightly colored packaging to black and white because war has disrupted supply of certain raw materials used in ink
- Calbee, whose potato chip brands in particular are known for brightly colored bag designs, said 14 of its products would switch to monochrome branding by the end of May.
- Printing ink requires naphtha, an oil derivative for which Japan relies on imports from the Middle East for about 40% of its consumption.Black Ink Printing
HantaVirus
- Tristan da Cunha, home to only around 200 people, is halfway between South Africa and South America. It is the world's remotest inhabited island, more than 2,400 km and a six-day boat ride from St Helena, its nearest inhabited neighbor.
- It usually relies on a medical team of two people for its health needs, and is normally only accessible by boat as it has no airstrip.
- A British man was dropped from the death ship was there and has the symptoms - so "out of an abundance of caution...."
- "The arrival of paratroopers, medical personnel and medical supplies from the sky has hopefully reassured the people of Tristan da Cunha," said Brigadier Ed Cartwright, Officer Commanding 16 Air Assault Brigade.
- Does this give comfort that paratroopers dropping in with hazmat suits?
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Announcing the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SALESFORCE (CRM)Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
Good overall earnings season – still going strong
Economic reports show a mixed picture – but still good enough
Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam
Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines
Markets
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Good overall earnings season - still going strong
- Economic reports show a mixed picture - but still good enough
- Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam
- Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines
- EGGS - Breaking News!Markets
- Are markets riding tariff refund wave?
- Oil shoots up then slips back after Iran tensions rise and fall
- New Highs - NAZ100 powering ahead
- Huge Capex and OBBBANEED A NEW CTP
- CMG (last time was 2017)Ship Sailing
- Seems that under the protection of the USA - a Maersk ship passed through the Strait
- But how many can they do a day like this?
- Oil down after a huge spike yesterday due to IRAN striking UAEBig Shakeup
- US transportation stocks plunged after Amazon announced expanded logistics offerings that will turn it into a major competitor for parcel carriers and air freight companies.
- The move is a threat not just to other couriers' grasp on e-commerce, but potentially to more profitable areas such as healthcare, which UPS and FedEx have made a central part of their strategies.
- Amazon will offer freight, distribution and fulfillment, and parcel shipping to standalone customers, and its announcement "could be a watershed moment for North American freight transportation companies," according to Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker.
- FedEx Corp. shares fell 9.1% in their worst day in more than a year, while rival United Parcel Service Inc. dropped more than 10%.
-- Logistics firms Forward Air Corp. and GXO Logistics Inc. suffered double-digit declines. Old Dominion Freight Line Inc., among other truckers, slid almost 7%.
--- FYI - Did you know... last year there was a total of 23.9 BILLION packages shipped in the US. 25% was delivered by Amazon, Fed and UPS delivered a third.Off the Hook - Chump Change
- Elon Musk agreed to pay $1.5 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission allegations that he cheated Twitter shareholders by failing to properly disclose his growing stake in the social media company.
- An Elon Musk revocable trust would pay the penalty to end the SEC’s lawsuit, which is still subject to court approval, and Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations.
- The SEC said the deal would be the largest penalty the agency has levied against an entity or individual for allegedly failing to file a beneficial ownership report on time, but Musk’s attorney called it a “small fine”.
- Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations, according to a filing on Monday.This could be something...
- Sonos Inc. shares climbed after reporting revenue that jumped 8% and said that it is filing for tariff refunds totaling $40 million.
- The company reported second quarter revenue of $282 million, up 8% year over year, and strong growth in international markets.
- Sonos is forecasting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $20 million and $48 million for the current quarter
- Are markets riding higher also on the tariff refunds?
---- The US government is paying back up to $166 billion in revenue it collected through sweeping global tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court in February, with the first payments set to go out on May 11.AND
- General Motors raised its 2026 guidance after significantly beating Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings expectations following a roughly $500 million benefit from the U.S. Supreme Court decision to terminate and refund certain levies AKA - tariffs.OPEC?
- In an unexpected announcement - The United Arab Emirates will exit OPEC on May 1, in a major blow to the cartel that coordinates production among many of the world’s largest oil producers, particularly those in the Middle East.
- OPEC+ to raise June output quotas by 188,000 bpd
- Most members cannot meet targets due to Hormuz closure
- Quota increase removes UAE share after it left OPEC+ and OPEC (so just a make-up)
- Meanwhile, they cannot meet the iutput as no place to put the oil....
--- This all looks and sounds good but there is no substance.
---- Saudi Arabia produces 10 million barrels a day (Biggest in OPEC). USA produces 13 Million ....Spirit Airlines
- Goodbye - shutdown Saturday night at 3PM
- The administration had floated a last-ditch bailout that would have given the federal government a controlling stake in the airline, but the proposal stalled amid resistance from key creditors, whose approval would have been required for the deal to go through.
- Meanwhile, most ticket holders will get refunds.
--- Already Jetblue and others are looking to fill the void by offering more flights from airports that Spirit serviced.
-- Takes a low cost alternative off the market and potentially will be a negative for consumers - less competition - WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT BIDEN ADMINISTRATION DID NOT WANT BY BLOCKING JETBLUE MERGERJC - are you listening??
- Duolingo beats Q1 revenue estimates, driven by 21% growth in paid subscribers
- CFO Gillian Munson says investments target long-term user retention
- Duolingo aims for 100 million daily active users by 2028
- Guided a bit lower and a strategy shift toward prioritizing user experience and long-term retention over near-term monetization, as it invests in product quality and engagement to build a larger base of paying subscribers. (DUMB?)
- Share down 8%CHIPS
- Samsung Electronics reported an over eightfold increase in first-quarter operating profits on Thursday, hitting a new record and beating analysts’ estimates on the explosive growth of its chip business.
- Revenue: 133.9 trillion Korean won ($89.96 billion) vs. 132.69 trillion won expected
- Operating profit: 57.2 trillion won vs. 55.28 trillion won expected
- The South Korean technology giant’s quarterly profit climbed more than 750% from a year earlier to a fresh record.
- The company also posted record revenue, up about 70% year over year.AMD Reports
Conf Call: AMD paired strong current-quarter execution with a more ambitious long-term AI and server CPU outlook. The biggest positives were the stronger EPYC trajectory, rising confidence in MI450/Helios demand, and the upgraded server CPU TAM view.
- The company now sees the server CPU TAM growing more than 35% annually to over $120 billion by 2030, up from its prior long-term view.
- The main caution points were second-half PC and Gaming demand pressure from higher memory and component costs.
- Margins 55%
- Stock up 15% AHApple Chips Deal?
- Apple Inc. has held exploratory discussions with Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. about producing main processors for its devices in the US, as a secondary option beyond Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
- The discussions with Intel and Samsung are preliminary and have not resulted in any orders, with Apple having concerns about using non-TSMC technology.
- Apple is considering additional suppliers due to supply-chain disruptions, including recent shortages driven by the build-out of AI data centers and higher demand for Macs, with CEO Tim Cook saying the company has less flexibility in the supply chain than normal.
- Discussions - yet Intel up 14% on the news (after a 100% run in April)Flashback - 2 weeks
- Remember when OpenAi came out with some news that they missed revenue and user growth goals?
- Took down tech for a day a couple of weeks ago....Tech earnings
- Overall tech earnings were solid.
- Bbig takeaway is that the group (MAG7) are still spending a buttload on expansion into AI etc. Capex $$$$
- Meta was hit on theor outlook (which is why they came back and announced further layoffs)AI Layoffs
- Recall - "AI will not take jobs"
- More announced this week - Coinbase today
- How long until the robots take over?
- Recent AnnouncementsAI Job Cuts
EGGS
- Consumption of eggs is associated with a lower risk of being diagnosed with Alzheimer's Disease for those 65 years and older, according to researchers at Loma Linda University Health
- Eating one egg per day for at least five days a week reduces risk of Alzheimer’s by up to 27%, researchers found.
--- More: Eggs are known to be a source of key nutrients that support brain health. Sabaté said. Eggs provide choline, a precursor to acetylcholine and phosphatidylcholine, both of which are critical for memory and synaptic function, the study stated. Eggs also contain lutein and zeaxanthin—carotenoids that accumulate in brain tissue and are associated with improved cognitive performance and reduced oxidative stress. Eggs also contain key omega-3 fatty acids, and yolks are particularly rich in phospholipids, which constitute nearly 30% of total egg lipids and are essential for neurotransmitter receptor function.LIV Losing Saudi Arabia
- LIV Golf will lose its financial backing from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund after the 2026 season, the fund announced Thursday.
- "PIF has made the decision to fund LIV Golf only for the remainder of the 2026 season," a representative for the PIF, Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told ABC News on Thursday.
- "The substantial investment required by LIV Golf over a longer term is no longer consistent with the current phase of PIF's investment strategy," the statement continued. "This decision has been made in light of PIF's investment priorities and current macro dynamics.
- Looking for Private Equity to step inCars
- The Beijing Auto Show that opened to the public this week is a showcase for how hypercompetition in China has driven new car prices in the world's largest car market to ?a fraction of the level of the next-largest market, the U.S.
- In China, there are more than 200 battery-powered models, including hybrids, for sale at less than the equivalent of $25,000, according to DCar, an information and trading platform.
- Plenty at the $10k - $12k levelDeath Squads
- Friday, The White house announced plans to add firing squads, electrocution and gas asphyxiation as alternative methods of executing people convicted of the gravest federal crimes
- Only THREE federal executions in the last 50 yearsWeekly Picks Ideas
Worst Stocks this Year
Worst Stocks
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
THE WINNER OF THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for NETGEARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
All-time highs – SP500 up 9% MTD – NAS100 even more
Balanced risk – up or down from here is evenly matched
All tech right now (Example Monday Equal Weighted up 0.33%, SP500 down 0.35%)
Worried about No More Mr. Nice Guy
The new “Blockchain” , “SPAC”, “MEME” that is pushing stocks
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- HUGE MOVES - All from Tweets
- Earnings seasons - banks did goooood
-- Earnings season - carrot ahead of next week when the tech giants report (lots of bulls on this)
- A belated 420 day to all you stoners out there! Grab a gummy, come back in about 45 minutes and listen - show will be much better...
- Tariff refunds now availableMarkets
- All-time highs - SP500 up 9% MTD - NAS100 even more
- Balanced risk - up or down from here is evenly matched
-- All tech right now (One day Equal Weighted up 0.33%, SP500 down 0.35%,) - Equal weight up 4.5% MTD, S&P up 9%
- Worried about No More Mr. Nice Guy ? - Seems like Trump is bored with the Iran thing...
- The new "Blockchain" , "SPAC", "MEME" that is pushing stocksAnnouncing the Winner of the Closest to the Pin for NetGear...
Open /Closed
- Straits of Hormuz closed again, and again
- The brief opening allowed for a cruise ship to sneak through last week.
- Celestyal Discovery, a 1,360-guest vessel operated by Greece-based Celestyal Cruises, departed Port Rashid in Dubai, U.A.E., on April 17 at 11:36 a.m. local time, becoming the first cruise ship known to exit the strait since the crisis began earlier this year.
- No passengers aboard - aside from Captain and Crew.
- - That must have been a pretty scary passing....OIL
- Oil hovering in the $80-$90 range for a while, now topping $100
- WTI and Brent flipped back to the normal relationship
- UAE leaving OPEC - (accounts for 12% of OPEC and 4% of global oil)
---- They need more flexibility and there seems to be a rift with Saudi Arabia and others as they have not been protected
-- China! China to begin exporting jet fuel, diesel and gasoline - DOES THIS MEAN PRICED IN YUAN?Economics
- Retail sales up more than expected.
- Some is due to the high cost of gas - but stripping out gas prices - still beat expectations
- How do we square this with the UMich at all-time lows?Consumer Confidence
Retail Sales YoY
Chips
- MRVL Shares jumped more than 7% after a report by The Information said the company is in talks with Google to build two new AI chips.
- AVGO (Broadcom) dipped as they had a deal announced prior and this seems to have watered down some of the importance.
- Fast forward a few days and then we see a story about OpenAi missing user and revenue projections. Commentary about concern that if they do not meet their numbers, may not have enough money to fund all the build-outs they promised. (Lots of names dropping on this concern)Tim Apple
- Apple announces that Tim Cook will become executive chairman of Apple's board of directors and John Ternus, senior vice president of Hardware Engineering, will become Apple's next chief executive officer effective on September 1, 2026.
- Ternus joined Apple's product design team in 2001 and became a vice president of Hardware Engineering in 2013. He joined the executive team in 2021 as senior vice president of Hardware Engineering. Throughout his tenure at Apple, Ternus has overseen hardware engineering work on a variety of groundbreaking products across every category. He was instrumental in the introduction of multiple new product lines, including iPad® and AirPods, as well as many generations of products across iPhone®, Mac®, and Apple Watch.
- Ternus's work on Mac has helped the category become more powerful and more popular globally than at any time in its 40-year history.
Prior to Apple, Ternus worked as a mechanical engineer at Virtual Research Systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania.Mo Money - Vendor Financing
- Anthropic to secure up to 5 gigawatts (GW) of current and future generations of Amazon's Trainium chips to train and power their advanced AI models.
- Anthropic's Claude Platform available on AWS, providing their full AI developer experience in one place.
- Amazon to invest $5 bln in Anthropic today and up to an additional $20 bln in the future.Operation Vaccu Suck
- AST SpaceMobile — Shares fell 15% after a satellite launched was placed into the wrong orbit.
- The company said in a release it expects the cost of the satellite to be recovered by an insurance policy, and it still plans to conduct orbital launches once every month to two months in 2026.
- DH Space Cleanup - this is going to be huge. Like the Spaceballs Mega Maid Scene - goes from suck to blow. Mega maid cleaning up space trash - Operation Vaccu SuckFed Chair Nominee
- Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh told Senate hearing that Fed must stay independent and "stay in its lane"
- Opening statement (Senate) : "I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials—presidents, senators, or members of the House—state their views on interest rates. Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners.
- But the actual confirmation may still be stuck until the lawsuit against Powell is dropped (Which it seems is in process)Drugs man...
- Compass Pathways — The biotechnology company surged nearly 25% after President Donald Trump signed an executive order that directs his administration to speed up reviews of psychedelic drugs.
- Compass is conducting studies of psychedelics to create drugs for treatment-resistant depression and PTSD.HOW?
- A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump imposed without the constitutional authority to do so is scheduled to launch Monday.
- Importers and their brokers will be able to begin claiming refunds through an online portal beginning at 8 a.m., according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the agency administering the system.
- It’s the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the United States.SUBS Emerging
- Sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s has confidentially filed for an IPO.
- - Blackstone bought a majority stake in the sandwich chain in 2024 in a deal that valued the company at roughly $8 billion.
- - - With more than 3,000 locations nationwide, Jersey Mike’s is the second-largest hoagie sandwich chain in the U.S.
-- Did some research - typical franchisee makes about $100-$200k per store.
----- Initial cost to get store going ~ $700k (3-7 year make-good on initial investment plus risks)NEW Stock MOVER
- SPACS were HOT - now by all accounts one of the worst performance groups EVER
- AI Pivot
- - - Not sure this has legs like some of the ones in the past...
- Myseum shares more than doubled after the social media firm became the latest company to refocus efforts on artificial intelligence.
-----Shares of Myseum, which has been renamed Myseum.AI, will still trade under the MYSE ticker
- The New Jersey-based company announced Wednesday that it would change its name to Myseum.AI amid a concentration on integrating AI into its platforms like Picture Party and DatChat. Myseum will use AI agents to manage personal media in a way that adapts to users’ preferences while also maintaining privacy, the company said.
- Allbirds’ shares during the previous session after the struggling shoemaker announced a pivot to AI (Went from $3 to $24 and now $11)Crypto News
- Charles Schwab is rolling out crypto trading, allowing clients to buy bitcoin and ether in the coming weeks.
- The move places the brokerage in direct competition with Robinhood and Coinbase, both of which tend to serve younger clients and offer commission-free trading on stocks (but still carry a fee on crypto).
- Schwab is the latest example of increasing crypto acceptance by traditional financial firms that previously were waiting on the sidelines to launch crypto offerings. (Only Ether and Bitcoin)
-- Stock was down on this news an some earnings hangover (8% from recent high)
- Robinhood and Coinbase had some selling on the news too....OpenAi - Nastyness
- Sam Altman is seeking the dismissal of punitive damages claims in his sister's civil lawsuit accusing the OpenAI co-founder and chief executive of repeated sexual abuse more than two decades ago, an accusation he denies.
- Annie Altman accused her brother of sexually abusing and raping her between 1997 and 2006 at the family home in suburban Clayton, Missouri, starting when she was three and he was 12. She said the "last acts of sexual abuse and rape" occurred when Sam Altman was an adult. He is now 40.
- Sam Altman is countersuing his sister for defamation over her posts, including a video that said "an almost tech billionaire" molested her. (He is seeking $1)Other Strange
- FBI Director Kash Patel filed a defamation lawsuit against the Atlantic and its reporter Sarah Fitzpatrick following the publication of an article on Friday alleging the director had a drinking problem that could pose a threat to national security.
- The magazine's story, initially titled “Kash Patel's Erratic Behavior Could Cost Him His Job," cited more than two dozen anonymous sources expressing concern about Patel’s “conspicuous inebriation and unexplained absences” that “alarmed officials at the FBI and the Department of Justice.”
- The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks $250 million in damages.Netflix News
- Netflix beat Wall Street expectations for first-quarter revenue and reported a big jump in earnings per share thanks in part to a termination fee related to its proposed Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
- The company said it expects second-quarter revenue to increase 13% and reiterated its earlier warning that content spending would be weighted in the first half of the year due to the timing of title launches.
- The company announced Reed Hastings, Netflix’s co-founder and current chairman, would exit the board in June when his term expires.
- Netflix reiterated that it’s on track to reach $3 billion in advertising revenue in 2026, which would mark a doubling year over year, as that newer revenue line shows growth.
----Shares fell 9% after the announcementQVC
- QVC Group Inc. has filed for bankruptcy protection in an effort to shed $5 billion in debt, as the company struggles with declining network viewership and stiff competition for its e-commerce operation.
- QVC's business model, which relies on live sales sessions and call-in ordering, gave customers a sense of a personal relationship with their favorite peddlers, but the company's best year ever was in 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic, and its revenue has dropped by more than a third since then.
- The rise of short-form video platforms like TikTok, which has seen success with live shopping and has brought in more than $15 billion in US revenue in 2025, poses a significant challenge to QVC as it tries to restructure its debt and evolve its business model.
- There will still be QVC for a while - really just a debt restructure - but eventually they are toastSpirit - 9 Lives?
- Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc. has floated offering the US government an equity stake in the discount carrier to help stave off its potential liquidation, according to people familiar with the matter.
- The Air Current first reported that Spirit is seeking a bailout from the US government.
- Any proposed bailout is likely to get pushback from competitors that are also struggling with a spike in jet fuel prices during the conflict in the Middle East, some of the people said. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy plans to meet with low-cost airline chief executives this week to discuss their challenges, the people said.Just IN
- Jetblue CEO told employees it isn’t considering filing for bankruptcy protection this year.
- Geraghty’s comments come amid higher fuel costs and speculation sparked by the New York-based carrier’s founder that the airline could go bust.
- The airline has sufficient liquidity and access to additional capital, Geraghty said in an internal memo reviewed by Bloomberg. That includes a recently secured $500 million loan backed by aircraft, with an option to raise another $250 million.Robot 1/2 Marathon
- A humanoid robot completed a half-marathon in 50 minutes and 26 seconds, about seven minutes faster than the men’s world record.
- The second annual robot half marathon showed rapid advances in artificial intelligence, with 40% of the robots running autonomously and demonstrating improvement in handling generalized environments.
- The race, which featured over 100 teams and 300 robots, showcased China’s industrial policy priorities, including progress in artificial intelligence and robotics to mitigate the economic risks of an aging population.
- About 40% of the robots this year rant autonomouslyCrazy Short Squeeze
AVISEarnings on the way...
MicrosoftEPS: ~$4.00–$4.05 (+15–17% YoY)Revenue: ~$81–82 billion (+15–16% YoY)Focus: Azure growth, AI monetization, and whether heavy AI spending is translating into margins.Alphabet (Google)EPS: ~$2.60–$2.70 (~5% YoY decline, due to higher depreciation)Revenue: ~$106–107 billion (+18–20% YoY)Focus: Strong Cloud growth and proof that AI investment is turning into sustainable revenue.Meta PlatformsEPS: ~$6.60–$6.70 (+20%+ YoY)Revenue: ~$55–56 billion (+18–22% YoY)Focus: AI?driven advertising performance, core margins, and cost discipline outside Reality Labs.AmazonEPS: ~$1.60–$1.65 (+10–12% YoY)Revenue: ~$177–180 billion (+13–14% YoY)Focus: AWS growth, advertising margins, and clarity around large AI capital spending plans.AppleEPS: ~$1.90–$2.00 (+15–16% YoY)Revenue: ~$90–95 billion (mid?teens YoY growth)Focus: Services growth, iPhone demand stability, and capital return priorities.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
THE WINNER OF THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for NETGEARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
All-time highs – SP500 up 8% MTD – NAS100 even more
Balanced risk – up or down from here is evenly matched
JCD could not make it tonight – back for some more tests….
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
PCE and inflation trends – single day concern
Earnings Season – Goldman, JPM
Eco Reports of historic proportion
Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Walking back - Waffling and Extensions
--- Blockade - not really
- Market Immunity
- Jesus.ai
- Reading Retreats (The New Silent Disco?)Markets
- PCE and inflation trends - single day concern - PPI revised
- Earnings Season - Goldman, JPM
- Historic Eco Report
- Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banksCONGRATS RORY! - back-to-Back Masters Champ
- Over $250M in tour winningsMarket Update
- Great week for markets as Operation obliteration is postponed
- - Weekend concerns and opening in the RED Monday as we get clarification
- Markets somewhat immune? Looking past?
- FWIW: Not much is moving thought the Straight....But who cares!
----- Markets made back all of the losses from the War! Nothing to worry about...Historic!
- As of this month, we have officially hit a new historical floor.
- The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for April 2026 came in at 47.6, which is the lowest recorded value in the survey’s 70-plus-year history.Consumer Sentiment
Fed Looking
- The Federal Reserve is asking major US banks for details about their exposure to private credit due to a surge in redemptions and a rise in troubled loans in the industry.
- The Fed's queries are intended to assess the level of stress in the private credit industry and the potential for it to spill over to the wider financial system.
- The Treasury Department is also questioning the insurance industry about exposures to private credit, as part of a broader regulatory push to get a handle on the scale of the strains in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry.ECO - PPI
- PPI: Rose 0.5% month-over-month in March, well below the 1.2% consensus expectation
- Follows a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in February (from 0.7%)
Core PPI (excluding food and energy):
- Increased 0.1% in March, below the 0.4% consensus expectation
- Follows a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in February (from 0.5%)
--- Market talk:
-- - Final demand services were unchanged, giving markets room to look through the energy-driven spike as likely temporaryMeanwhile...
- Dow Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. are among the companies boosting prices for plastics as the sector grapples with supply shocks from the US-Israeli war on Iran.
- The company said Monday that it will raise prices for North American buyers of polyethylene resins — common plastics found in packaging, films and containers — through at least May, according to a document viewed by Bloomberg.
- That increase includes a 30-cent-per-pound boost for April and plans for another 20-cent-per-pound hike next month, according to the notice.Blockade
- President Donald Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.
-The US and Iran failed to reach a deal in direct talks in Pakistan due to differences over the nuclear issue, according to Trump.
--- At first, it was a FULL blockade - then another walk-back (or is this just politics vs reality?)
- The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, according to US Central Command.Goldman Earnings
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $17.55 per share, $1.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $16.47; revenues rose 14.4% year/year to $17.23 bln vs the $16.99 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Net revenues in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities were $4.01 billion, 10% lower than the first quarter of 2025, reflecting lower net revenues in FICC intermediation, due to significantly lower net revenues in interest rate products and mortgages and lower net revenues in credit products, partially offset by significantly higher net revenues in commodities and currencies.
- Provisions for the first quarter of 2025 primarily reflected net provisions related to the credit card portfolio, which was transferred to held for sale in the fourth quarter of 2025.
--- Goldman is cleaning up and selling off some of the credit card portfolio (Apple Card)
---- We discussed that analysts had been raising guidance for companies into the print. GS rallied 16% since March - so maybe just sell-the-news eventStocks: Earnings
- Goldman Sachs downgraded Best Buy to a sell, and the stock dropped about 4% on the news.
--- Goldman’s view is that while Best Buy should get a short?term boost in the first quarter—helped by people pulling forward PC purchases and getting bigger tax refunds—that strength may not last.
--------According to the analysts, once higher memory costs start working their way into laptop and computer prices, sales could come under pressure after Q1.Blackrock Call
- Asset management giant BlackRock has raised its outlook for U.S. stocks, reasoning that contained impacts from the Iran war and strong corporate earnings will create a favorable backdrop.
- With earnings season just getting underway, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a collective 12.6% profit increase for the first quarter.
- But do we care what Blackrock says? Long only shop with $14T in ETFsStocks: Monday/Tuesday
-----Cruise line stocks were under pressure as higher energy costs and renewed concerns about demand came back into focus. Carnival dropped about 4%, Norwegian Cruise Line was down roughly 3%, and Royal Caribbean slid more than 2%.
-----Airlines moved lower for similar reasons. Rising jet fuel prices and softer demand expectations weighed on the group, with United Airlines falling more than 2.5%, while Southwest and Delta both declined around 2%.
--Tuesday - Follow through getting us at/above pre-war levelsStocks: Mattress Consolidation:
- Leggett & Platt jumped about 9% after announcing it will be acquired by Somnigroup International, a bedding manufacturer. The deal is an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $2.5 billion, and it’s expected to close by the end of 2026.
----Mattress Monopoly Now? Adding to - Tempur Sealy, Mattress Firm, DreamsStocks - Upgrades
- Toll Brothers, Pultegroup
— Shares of both stocks rose more than 1% after Evercore ISI upgraded the two homebuilders to outperform.
- - The investment firm said it’s time to buy the dip in the companies, believing the bad news is already priced in and that both Toll Brothers and Pultegroup could manage macroeconomic headwinds better than some of their peers.Pope Leo
- WEAK on crime and terrible for Foreign Policy say President Trump
-- Is the Pope involved in criminal / police issues ?Jesus Update
- Aside from the Jesus imagery with Trump as Jesus this weekend (Trust social post - then deleted)
- At $1.99 per minute, the tech company Just Like Me is taking that concept to talk to Jesus to a new level.
-----Users of the platform can join video calls with an avatar of Jesus generated by artificial intelligence.
------- Like other religious AI tools on the market, it offers words of prayer and encouragement in various languages.
----------With the occasional glitch, it remembers previous conversations and speaks through not-quite-synced lips.Reading Retreats
- What it is: Paid reading retreats where people travel to quiet, upscale settings to read their own books—mostly in silence—alongside strangers.
- The price: Typically $1,000+ for a long weekend, often selling out months in advance.
- Why it works: People are burned out by screens and distractions and are paying for structure, silence, and protected time to focus.
- Social without pressure: It offers light community—being alone together—without forced conversation or networking.
- Cultural tailwinds: Fueled by BookTok, wellness travel, and nostalgia for slower, analog experiences, turning reading into a premium lifestyle activity.Of Interest
- Delta Air Lines said Wednesday it will “meaningfully reduce” its capacity growth plans in the near term. AFTER BULLISH COMMENTS DAYS EARLIER
- Delta joined United and JetBlue in hiking its checked bag fees this week as jet fuel costs surge. PRICE WILL NEVER COME DOWN
- Delta said its fuel bill will be $2 billion higher this quarter because of the spike in costs.
- The carrier also reported first-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ expectations. BY THE WAY>>>>>JAYNA - AKA China
- China’s factory?gate prices rose 0.5%, the first increase in more than three years.
- Consumer prices increased 1% year over year in March, falling short of economists’ expectations.
- Gasoline prices jumped 11.1% from the prior month, even as Beijing tried to limit fuel price increases.
- Economists warn the spike in input costs could lead to “bad inflation,” putting added pressure on manufacturers that are already operating with thin margins.Health Breakthrough
- Revolution Medicines said its pancreatic cancer drug daraxonrasib succeeded in a Phase 3 trial.
- RevMed said its drug almost doubled the typical length of survival and slashed the risk of death by 60% versus chemotherapy.
- The company said it will soon seek FDA approval using a Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher, which grants a quicker review.
- It is a small?molecule oral oncology drug, taken as a daily pill, not chemotherapy or immunotherapy.
- Stock up nicely on the news...China PPI
- China’s factory-gate prices rose for the first time in more than three years while consumer inflation moderated in March, amid a surge in oil prices as the Iran war upended global energy markets.
- The producer price index grew 0.5% from a year earlier, the first growth since September 2022, ending the longest deflationary streak in decades. For the first quarter, the PPI fell 0.6% year on year.China PPI and CPI
Intel
- Intel’s stock had a ninth straight winning day on Monday, up 58% over that stretch.
- Shares of the semiconductor company are soaring after a series of announcements and major partnerships with Google and Elon Musk.
- CPUs are seeing a resurgence as agentic artificial intelligence continues to gain traction.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for NETGEARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
A surprising payroll report
The quick war – not over just yet
Food inflation coming
Economics – a bright spot and surprising report last week
Space issues – Space sewage
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- A surprising payroll report
- The quick war - not over just yet
- Food inflation coming
- Economics - a bright spot and surprising report last week
- Space issues - Space sewage
- 8PM - End of Civilization?Markets
- March sucked - that is the report
- 1st quarter results are in - we will discuss
- OIL - UP - WTI and Brent rising - its only transitory
- Market Manipulation - say it ain't so!Oil
- Interesting note that WTI is trading higher than Brent - unusual
- WTI ~ $116 Brent ~ $109
- Brent for immediate delivery in Asia $140 as being bid up for purchase NOW
- WTI may have an edge because it is available and buyers also stocking up on that...
- Europe running out of Jet Fuel - USA sending over a supply - also unusualBUT - 8PM ET - End of Civilization?
- Or last minute miracle - with mystery negotiations
- Pakistan requesting 2 week pause - with movement of ships through Strait
- YES, we have a 2-week pause - no kidding! Crude down 15%, market indices up 2%
---- Wait - Negotiations will start Friday... (Friday?)In Process - In Theory - Framework
- OPEC+ agrees in principal theoretical framework to increase output
- OPEC+ eight members to raise quotas by 206,000 bpd for MayApple Foldable Flop
- Apple shares sunk 2% after reports that the company’s foldable iPhones may face delays.
- Nikkei Asia reported that the company is facing engineering challenges in what would be the iPhone-maker’s first foldable device.
- Engineering problems they say....Closing this Discussion
- Bored with this....But...
- OpenAI announced it closed its record-breaking funding round at a post-money valuation of $852 billion.
- The round totaled $122 billion of committed capital, up from the $110 billion figure that the company previously announced.
- OpenAI said it extended participation to investors through bank channels for the first time and raised $3 billion from individual investors.The 1st Quarter Misery
- Microsoft lost almost a quarter of its value in the first three months of the year, its steepest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.
- Concerns about the company include the return on investment for artificial intelligence build-outs and the adoption of Copilot.
- The company’s stock plunged 23% in the first quarter, a steeper drop than any of its tech peers or the Nasdaq,
- Microsoft’s earnings multiple hasn’t been this low since the fourth quarter of 2022, when OpenAI introduced ChatGPT.
- SAAS compaies got crushed - Adobe, Atlassian and ServiceNow all down more than 30% YTD
- Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Homebuilders had tough quarter1st Quarter Happiness
- Energy Sector up 30%
- Materials up 10%
- Utilities up 10%
- Oil up almost 100%
- EM still positive for 2026Latest Eco
- Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 in March, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000.
- The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.
- Wages also rose less than expected, with average hourly earnings up just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago. The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021.
-Health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000 jobs.
- March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.0% vs. 54.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior 56.1%
- - Overall, there is not much going on good or bad - just the same in US Economics
------ Next couple of months will show inflationary pressuresInflation
- Tomatoes, strawberries, asparagus, veggies in general are moving higher
- - - Tomato prices are rising, with significant increases driven by a 17%–21% tariff on Mexican imports, labor shortages, and supply tightening
- Experts warn these factors could increase prices by up to 50% for consumers, especially during winter months, and recent reports indicate continued shortages and high costs through early April 2026
- Florida frost in Q1 and now UREA shortages during spring planing will cause even more problems and pricing pressure (inflationary)No View
- Satellite imaging firm Planet Labs said on Saturday it will indefinitely withhold visuals of Iran and the region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from the U.S. government.
- Planet Labs will release images only on case-by-case basis for urgent or public interest needs
- Satellite imagery of hard-to-reach areas useful for news media, researchers
- Other providers like Vantor apply their own controls but were not contacted by U.S. government
- Interesting potential for an edge in war if we can see them and they and they can't see usDems probing stock trades
- Two Democratic U.S. senators on Thursday called on Wall Street's top regulator and a Defense Department watchdog to prevent and investigate possible insider trading by government officials following a spate of market activity seemingly timed to President Donald Trump's announcements.
- Reuters and others have reported that major moves over the last year in equity, commodities and prediction markets are consistent with the possibility that traders had advance knowledge of Trump's announcements concerning the war with Iran, tariffs and the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, among other examples.
- Repubs only care if Pelosi does trades and Dems only care if Trump related tradesThe Final Frontier
- The Universal Waste Management System toilet on the Orion crew capsule has been giving the Artemis II crew some issues during their mission to the moon.
- The toilet's problems included a pump that needed extra water to work and a potential buildup of ice blocking the vent nozzle that allows wastewater to drain out into space.
--- For a while there was no urination allowed only space poops since on different disposal systems
- NASA was able to fix the issue by positioning the Orion so that the toilet vent would "bake" in the sun and melt the ice, and the crew is now cleared to use the toilet for all purposes.
---More: The UWMS comes equipped with a funnel and hose for urination, and there is a seat with a hole for bowel movements.
-------Since the astronauts are in microgravity, the toilet relies on air flow that pulls waste into the toilet and ensures the capsule stays clean.
-------------The astronauts can also use footstraps and handles to stay in position.Earnings Season
- Analysts have been increasing their earning estimates into the quarter - which is unusual as usually see declines into the prints (so that companies have easier hurdle)
- The S&P 500 is expected to deliver 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains.
- Revenue is expected to grow 9.7%, the strongest pace since Q3 2022.
- But what about the outlook?????????????????Mag 7 Earnings expectations
- Of course The Magnificent 7 remain central to earnings growth and market direction.
Nvidia (~127.7%) and Tesla (~124.9%) are driving outsized earnings expansion.
Apple (~19.0%) and Microsoft (~17.2%) show solid but more normalized growth.
Meta (~3.4%) and Amazon (~3.2%) are slowing, while Alphabet (~-6.9%) is expected to decline.
Growth within mega-cap tech is becoming less broad and more concentrated in a few names.Just In
- Remember in January with Medicare Advantage and Part D payment plans from governments were being cut?
- Insurance company stocks got smacked...
- Expectations were for a 4% or so raise and it came in flat
- ON DHUNPLUGGED - (1/27/2026) we discussed that this was a game and would come back when finalized inline with expectations to show how great the benefit is to Medicare recipients (voters)
---- We added United HealthCare (UNH) to the Weekly Stock Pick game as a rare Purple pick
- Now, final numbers announced and are projected to result in a net average increase of 2.48%, or over $13 billion in additional MA payments to plans in CY 2027. This expected increase includes consideration of the various elements that impact MA payments, such as growth rates of underlying costs, 2026 Star Ratings for 2027 quality bonus payments, and risk adjustment updates.
- UNH and other names int he sector moving up nicely on the news
- (Potential related stocks: UNH, CVS, MCK, CI, HUM, CNC, ALHC, MOH, ELV, THC, UHS, CYH, HCA, OSCR)France Gold
- France’s central bank has sold off the last of the gold it held in the United States Federal Reserve and replaced it with higher quality bars in Paris, taking advantage of rising prices to make nearly €13 billion as it upgrades its holdings.
- Moved all holding back to France
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
ANNOUNCING THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for NETGEARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
March is the WORST month for markets in a long time.
International equities getting killed
Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down
The markets Trump Card no longer works…
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Trump may have played the wrong cards (Making up stories for markets)
- Oil prices on the move - Monday highest close yet for this cycle ($105)
- For Real ? End of War?Markets
- WORST month in a long time
- International equities getting killed
- Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds DownHappy Passover and Happy Easter!
- Made a brisket 2 ways!One Food item and then back to business
- New trend at restaurants: " We do not use any seed oils - no, we use beef tallow.....
- Reaction from crowd and recent FDA
- Sunflower, Canola, Soybean (unsaturated is better....)Monday Morning Again
- 7:30am Monday Morning - More BS for the markets - Talks going great...
---- Problem is that there was a severe threat that if nothing changes by next week- Iran is going to get pummeled
------Iran strikes several key targets in Middle east - Aluminum prices spike, oil prices moves higher....
- It does not look like Iran is too concerned. (Complacency or Strength?)
- Unfortunate that markets are not reacting well - (Wolf?)
- So we have until the day after Easter?Tuesday....
- Iran's State Media says Iran's President spoke with EU Council on the phone; says Iran is "prepared to end war" with guarantees against further attacks; EU Council President has confirmed this call -
- Just moments after WTI hit $105... quickly came down to $102+/-
- Everything turned higher - green across the boardMore Crazy Records
- BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky added, "At 12:41 ET today, that NYSE TICK Index hit +2329, the highest on record back to 1993. This index measures the number of NYSE securities trading on an uptick minus those trading on a down tick at any given time of day.
- For perspective, there are ~2400 stocks on the NYSE, which means nearly 100% of stocks traded on an uptick, simply unprecedented.
- Prior high was 4/9/2025 when President Trump put a 90-day pause on tarrifs
---- More - S&P was up 9.5% that day and then sold off 6.5% over the next seven daysHormuz Tolls/Permits
- Ships would have to pay for “safe passage” through the strait
- Fees reported as high as $2 million per vessel for some tankers
- Mandatory clearance and vetting by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
- Escort through a narrow Iranian-controlled corridor, primarily near Larak Island
- Only “non-hostile” vessels would be eligible—a term Iran defines politicallyHedge Funds and Money Managers
- Plans continue - equities coming out to cash
- Hedges applied
- H&C is doing the same thing for portfolios - plans for what/if and action ahead of further breakdown
--- There is discussion that this sets up for a nice reversal (when/if) ceasefire
------- HOWEVER - damage has been done...More....
- Heavy short sales by hedge funds and disposals by systematic investors have increased the potential for a sharp swing higher for stocks in the event of a de-escalation in the Iran war.
- Hedge funds have cut global equity holdings for a sixth straight week, driven by short sales, with net disposals across all major regions and short exposure in macro products in Europe reaching a 10-year high.
- Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge among hedge funds, and the systematic community is running out of steam, with CTAs estimated to be buyers in every scenario over the next month.Capitulation of More To Come?
GS Prime Book
Market Metrics
FRIENDLY REMINDER
- It is Tax season - Tax returns due 4/15
- IRA deposits due by 4/15Food Deal
- Sysco Corp. is acquiring Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion including debt in a deal that will create one of the largest food-service groups in the US.
- Jetro shareholders will receive $21.6 billion in cash and 91.5 million Sysco shares, with the company's existing management team staying in place.
- The deal will give Sysco access to the higher-margin and growing cash-and-carry channel, with the combined company expected to have increased purchasing efficiencies and lower prices for customers.
- This looks like a smart deal - gives Sysco new footprint and distributionEmerging Markets
- According to Bloomberg: The Middle East war risks ending a run of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets and could trigger a new downgrade cycle as it fuels inflation and tightens financial conditions.
- A prolonged Iran conflict could tilt the balance back toward downgrades, reversing the past three years when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets and implemented fiscal reforms.
- The inflation shock and tighter financing conditions will weigh on all countries, according to S&P Global Ratings Director Ravi Bhatia, as higher oil prices boost revenues for exporters and strain importers.
- The shift would mark a reversal from the past three years, when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets, implemented fiscal reforms and regained market access after the pandemic triggered widespread defaults and rating cuts.
- A prolonged Iran conflict could now tilt the balance back toward downgrades.Oil Pries Factor
- Oil prices closed at the highest levels in 3 year on MondayMarket Metrics
In Stupid News
- Former world number one Tiger Woods was arrested on a charge of driving under the influence after his Land Rover rolled over on a two-lane road near his Jupiter Island home in Florida on Friday afternoon, the Martin County Sheriff's Office said.
- Woods had been overtaking a work truck pulling a trailer at high speed when he clipped the back of it, causing his vehicle to roll onto its driver's side, Sheriff John Budensiek told a press conference.
- Tiger crawled out of the passenger door before law enforcement officers arrived. A breathalyzer test at Martin County Jail returned no trace of alcohol, with investigators believing his impairment was drug or medication-related.
- Woods charged with DUI, property damage and test refusal (Woods refused to submit to a urine test, an offense that carries a separate charge under Florida law. No injuries were reported to Woods or the driver of the other vehicle.)
- Breathalyzer showed no alcohol; impairment believed drug-related
- Woods released after spending eight hours in jailPrivate Credit - Now Blaming ... Private Credit
- Private credit industry execs are blaming the industry for not explaining to retail about lock-ups and liquidity.
- That is dumb - clearly easy to understand that you cannot get your money unless allowed by the investment firm
- - Here is the fact - they would have never got $ from most retinal if they told them they could not get their money readily - so they glossed over it.USPS Surcharge
- The U.S. Postal Service plans to impose its first-ever surcharge on packages to cover the rising cost of fuel and transportation, as the agency looks for ways to stabilize its finances.
- The 8% surcharge will begin on April 26thMeta Glasses
- Meta announced on Tuesday that it’s launching two Ray-Ban smart glasses that are designed for prescription wearers.
- While many people already use Meta glasses with prescription lenses, the company says these new ones support nearly all prescriptions and are built to better serve people who rely on all-day eyewear.Wearables
- Whoop, the fitness and health tracking wearable company, has closed a $575 million Series G funding round at a $10.1 billion valuation — nearly triple its last reported valuation of $3.6 billion — in a deal that brings together sovereign wealth funds, major health institutions, and some of the world’s most recognizable athletes.
- The round was led by several VC groups, soverign wealth funds as well asTHEFT
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
- Cisco has suffered a cyberattack after threat actors used stolen credentials from the recent Trivy supply chain attack to breach its internal development environment and steal source code belonging to the company and its customers.
- A source, who asked to remain anonymous, told BleepingComputer that Cisco's Unified Intelligence Center, CSIRT, and EOC teams contained the breach involving a malicious "GitHub Action plugin" from the recent Trivy compromise.
ANNOUNCING THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for NETGEARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE!
Correction in some areas and sectors.
Crude oil DROPS after “good” talks and a deal brewing with Iran.
Airports are a mess.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE
- Need a new CTP
- Airports are a mess
- Not Kosher - Futures movesMarkets
- From the Brink....All is good?
- Correction in some areas and sectors
- US Dollar Rises, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Drop
- Crude oil DROPS after "good" talks and a deal brewing with Iran - reversing all of the aboveJCD UPDATE
- AH waiting by the microphone on a Tuesday in March - - no John... 9pm, 9:05, 9:15pm...
- Health update etc...Can we get the story?
- Thoughts on John S. Dvorak (Mimi on No Agenda) - Family backup!Market Update
- Small-Caps taking the brunt of the selling
- Russell 2000 small-caps are down 10% from their high - an official correction
-- Interestingly the R2000 is still up this year by about 2%
- Stocks up on Monday after President Trump says intense negotiations over weekend and postpones targeted attacks for 5 days (after giving a 48 hour ultimatum)Manipulation? Say it ain't so...
- Dateline Monday morning...
- Futures took a leg down pre-market - even after Friday (after close) President Trump said he was looking to wind down the Iran affair
- At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume.
- A similar pattern was observed in oil markets.
- Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted a market-moving announcement about Iran on Truth Social.
- Futures on DJ up 1,000 and oil down 89%
--- Were there really conversations and negotiations over the weekend?A Few Leftovers that need to be discussed
Private Credit Again
- All of a sudden they are admitting there is a problem.....
- Blackstone Inc. approved redemptions of a record 7.9% from its flagship private credit fund, totaling about $3.8 billion.
- Redemption requests have increased across multiple private credit funds in recent quarters.
- Investor unease is being driven by concerns over the private credit asset class, particularly exposure to software companies vulnerable to AI disruption.
- According to Hugh Chung, CIO of Endowus, Blackstone’s experience suggests these concerns are asset-class wide, not limited to a small group of managers.
- Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan warned that a shakeout is coming for private credit firms, driven by rising defaults on loans to software companies.
- Rowan emphasized that the shakeout is unlikely to be short-term, calling it foreseeable and predictable, and underscoring the importance of disciplined underwriting and strong risk management.
- He argued that investors should prefer having credit risk reside within private markets firms, rather than on bank balance sheets backed by government-insured deposits, which can amplify systemic risk.
- LATEST: Apollo is curbing redemptions from one of their biggest Private Credit funds.Michael Gayed: Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch
PRIVATE CREDIT
More OpenAI Funding
- Amazon invested $50 billion, Nvidia invested $30 billion and SoftBank invested $30 billion in the round, OpenAI said in a release Friday.
- The investment boosts OpenAI to a $730 billion pre-money valuation, which marks a big jump from its $500 billion valuation in a secondary financing in October.
- The will use some of the money to expland and buy more chips and cloud from NVDA and AMZN (? Circular?)MORE ON THE CIRCULAR SHAM
- OpenAI said it is expanding its existing $38 billion agreement with Amazon Web Services by $100 billion over the next eight years.
- AWS will also serve as the exclusive third-party cloud distribution provider for OpenAI’s enterprise platform Frontier, which it unveiled earlier this month.AI and Where we stand
- Can we talk about Anthropic? Is the Government going to crush Claude?
- What is our Go-to AI bots?
- What stage are we at right now? LLMs > Infernce>Agentic
- - What comes after AgenticNetflix OUT
- Last week, Netflix exited the bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery after a competing bidder submitted a superior offer.
- The decision followed pre-planned bidding scenarios, with co CEO Ted Sarandos saying the company knew exactly how to respond once the higher offer emerged.
- Sarandos said the Paramount deal is likely to drive significant cost-cutting, including roughly $16 billion in reductions and thousands of job losses.
- He emphasized that Netflix will continue investing in its business and explore new ways to collaborate with theater owners, rather than pursuing large acquisitions.|
- Stock rose nicely on the newsTariff Refund Update
- You are screwed....
-- Trump administration seems hell-bent on keeping our moneyAirlines
- After a rather bullish commentary from Delta last week....
- United Airlines is cutting more unprofitable flights over the next two quarters as it prepares for a prolonged period of high jet fuel prices due to the Iran war, even as strong travel demand has allowed U.S. carriers to raise fares.
Chief Executive Scott Kirby said in a staff memo the airline is preparing for oil to rise as high as $175 a barrel and remain above $100 until the end of 2027.
- At those levels, United's annual fuel bill would rise by about $11 billion, more than twice the profit it earned in its "best year ever," he said.
- Ticket prices going up!Gas Prices
- Have you seen diesel prices?
- > $5 gallon on average across the U.S.
-- Implications beyond
--- Let's discuss the similarities to the 1973 oil embargo. (Barry switching license plates)
- 1973–1974 ? Arab oil embargo (the classic “1970s oil embargo”)
- 1979 ? Second oil shock caused by the Iranian Revolution (not an embargo, but another major supply shock)Even So - Fedex
- FedEx Corp. raised its full-year profit forecast, with adjusted earnings expected to be $19.30 to $20.10 a share for the fiscal year.
- The company's shares climbed after the announcement, with the stock advancing about 23% this year through Thursday's close.
- FedEx does not expect the war in the Middle East to have a direct material effect on its business, but the broader consequences, including higher energy prices and volatile shipping patterns, are adversely affecting the global economy.
- In fact, company raised its full year outlook.....
--- Not a material effect???Bad People
- SuperMicro Co-Founder Charged!
- Super Micro shares sank 28% last Friday after U.S. prosecutors charged three people linked with the company, including its co-founder, with helping smuggle billions of dollars worth of AI technology to China. (NVDA chips)
- The U.S. Justice Department charged Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, sales manager Ruei-Tsang Chang, and contractor Ting-Wei Sun with running a scheme to route U.S.-made servers through Taiwan to Southeast Asia.
- The defendants allegedly used a Southeast Asian company as a middleman to place orders for high-end servers containing restricted Nvidia H200 and Blackwell chips. The equipment was then repackaged into unmarked boxes and diverted to China.
- To evade U.S. audits and customs inspections, the individuals allegedly created thousands of "dummy" servers and used a hair dryer to remove and reattach serial number labels from genuine servers to the fake ones.
--- Soooo, only 3 people did all of this?Amazon Phone
- Amazon's new phone project codenamed 'Transformer'
- Focus on AI integration, Alexa features, and mobile personalization
- Here is what we know:
-------It is a smartphone, not a wearable or accessory
- It is AI-centric, with Alexa deeply integrated
- It is meant to act as a personalized, always-on gateway into Amazon’s ecosystem (shopping, Prime Video, Prime Music, services like Grubhub)
- It is being built inside Amazon’s Devices & Services group by a skunkworks team called ZeroOne, led by former Xbox architect J AllardOpenClaw
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says OpenClaw could be the next ChatGPT as AI shifts from answering questions to taking action.
- Jensen said : Nvidia is building security around the technology with NemoClaw to enable safe and scalable adoption of AI agents.
- Project OpenClaw: “It is now the largest, most popular, the most successful open-sourced project in the history of humanity,”
- OpenClaw is an open-source autonomous AI agent platform that goes beyond traditional chatbots.
-----Instead of answering questions, these agents can complete tasks, make decisions, and take actions with minimal input from users.
- Use case: Prompt to study images of a kitchen, learn design tools, iterate ideas to learn how to design a kitchen
------- Jensen says: “Every carpenter can now be an architect. Every plumber will become an architect. We are going to elevate the capabilities of everyone”
---- What happens to the architects?Something....
- One of the hardest hit countries in all of this mess has been South Korea
- ~70% of South Korea’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East - Most of that oil transits the Strait of Hormuz
- Margin calls kicked in as high margin debt with heavy retail participation
- Won weakened sharply (17-year low)
- Korea economy is dependent on global demand and stable energy prices
- South Korea often leads sell-offs as it is the purest RISK ON market in Asia
---- SOOOOO, if this thing ends quickly, there is a potential of EWY to move up again....
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
Exploring Bogus oil prices
Hold cow – look at what Gemini and JSD can do…
Markets needed good news – Correlation high
Fed on hold?
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Bogus Oil Prices
- Look at what Gemini and JSD can do...
- Markets needed good news - Correlation high
- Fed on hold?
- JCD LIMERICK!Markets
- Did we just correct?
- Inflation - Eco that matters
- Manipulation in Oil - Land?John Dvorak Jr. - Guest
- UPDATE ON JCD
- AH Spoke with JCD Saturday....Oil Prices - Bogus?
- The price of oil in the middle east is at $140 for its land-locked price, but ocean traveling oil is at $100.
- Sort, of, opposite of what you'd expect?
- But, then there's been active conversation and warning about manipulating oil futures to manage the situation.
- Oil in Backwardation across the spectrum. (Current price of oil contract is $95 and December contract is $75)Oil Prices may be BOGUS - But What About Gas?
Gas Prices
More Manipulation
- The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices amid the war in Iran, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said.
- US would just sell future contracts and then deliver at those prices at the end of the contract date. (SPR/Venezuela?)
- Not sure how markets will take an intervention like that.
- Remember when short selling was banned on Financials back in the 2008
----Stock prices continued to fall during the ban and tended to stabilize only after it was lifted, suggesting the ban did not stop the decline.
------ Seems that when government intervenes in free markets they can set off more panic as the optics make it look even worse.
---- AND- Russian Oil sanctions partially removedInflation and ECO
- PCE Prices stay elevated
- GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to a Commerce Department revision Friday.
- The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%.
- The core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. The ex-food and energy reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.Eco Table
Oil Models...Very Cool
- JSD - Explain
- https://gemini.google.com/share/d1427a61a804Department of Defense, err War, is hiring
- The Pentagon is hiring financial 'defense', or is that a financial warfare unit?
- This may mean we're beginning to really adopt "Unrestricted Warfare (???)
----- ie: The Chinese strategy where the warfare model is extended to include social engineering, illicit trade, and finance operations.
- Isn't this already in play? Tariffs, Straits of Hormuz, Asset Seizure (Russian Yachts), Venezuelan Oil????
--- This is why Quantum is in play too...(offense and defense)Did you know?
- 30% of Helium production comes from Qatar
- Qatar helium production stopped back on March 2nd, and is ~30% of all helium globally
- South Korea depends almost entirely on helium from the strait of Hormuz, with 65% from Qatar specifically
- Semiconductor manufacturing
- - Wafer/equipment cooling — High thermal conductivity removes heat fast during lithography, etching, deposition, and other steps; critical for precise temp control and smaller chip nodes (no good substitutes).
- - Inert purging & atmospheres — Chemically inert; flushes systems, prevents unwanted reactions in annealing, deposition, or vacuum chambers.
-- - Plasma processes — Acts as carrier, diluent, or purge gas in plasma etching for precise circuit patterning.
- - Leak detection — Tiny atoms detect micro-leaks in tools, pipelines, and vacuum systems to ensure reliability.
- - Backside wafer cooling — Delivers stable cooling to silicon wafers in advanced fabs.INDIA! Running out of Gas
- Does it matter?
- India maintains only a 25 day reserve of oil
- Good news for them that they use coal for electricity generation, and only use oil for transportation
- BUT BUT BUT, What about getting goods from one place to another in India?
-- FWIW - coal prices up 19% YTD in IndiaBack to this...
- AI not causing job losses
- WHAT ABOUT META?
- Meta’s stock climbed after Reuters reported the social media giant is planning to lay off over 20% of its 79,000 employees to balance AI-related spending.Drone Warfare
- New Warfare fought like games
- Ender's Game Movie
- Length: 3.5 meters (about 11.5 feet)
Wingspan: 2.5 meters (about 8.2 feet)
Weight (total takeoff/mass): Approximately 200 kg (around 440 pounds)
Warhead/payload: Typically 40–50 kg explosive (some variants up to 90 kg with reduced fuel/range)
--- Usage ~ 2,000 per day in Iran an peak of 10,000 per day in Ukraine/RussiaGaming Industry
- DOA? See above - no wonder why - it is IRL now
- Q1 continues sharp decline in video game sales
- Older gamers: new AAA titles heavily cannibalized by old games
- Gen Z & Alpha mostly play only Roblox (144M DAU), Fortnite (60M DAU), or Minecraft (11M DAU)
- Young gamers rarely buy new AAA titles or consoles
- Industry “growth” driven purely by subscriptions & upsells — no real sales increase
- Hardware far below peaks: PS2 sold 160M, Nintendo DS 154M vs Switch 2 only 17M (original Switch lifetime 114M)
- AI failing to cut costs for big studios — Roblox capturing all the upside
- Roblox launches Incubator & Jumpstart programs for kids using AI “vibe-coding” to chase millionaire status
INTERACTIVE BROKERSCheck this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/
Target Earnings
- Target posted another quarter of falling revenue and customer traffic at its stores, though its shares rose as the retailer’s earnings beat estimates and it said it is poised to end its sales slump.
- Earnings per share: $2.44 adjusted vs. $2.16 expected
- Revenue: $30.45 billion vs. $30.48 billion expected
- Target said it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $7.50 to $8.50. Its adjusted earnings per share for the most recent full year were $7.57.
- Shares up 7% in a piss poor tape
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
There is a tech pundit whose name be John,
Whose sharp takes went late into dawn.
He hit pause for some care,
But with grit (and repair),
Soon he'll be back oh so steady and strong.See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
WAR IS COMPLETE!
Oil Screaming higher
Euro Nat Gas up 60%
An update on JCD
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
INTERACTIVE BROKERS
Warm-Up
- The CTP for Caterpillar - We have a winner!
- A tech earnings BLOWOUT
- A seminal moment with AI and Employment trends
- An update on JCD - from JSD
- A Limerick for JCDMarkets
- WAR FOOTING - Buyers are still there...
- Oil Screaming higher (Sunday night wow!)
- Euro Nat Gas up 60%
- Anyone wondering why markets keep going up?John Dvorak Jr. - Guest
- UPDATE ON JCDJSD:
- Tell us what you are doing these days...
- What was it like growing up around constant tech commentary and skepticism?
- How did that environment shape the way you look at innovation and hype?
- Where do you most disagree with your father’s views on technology today?
- Is AI making people smarter—or more dependent?
- How should younger professionals think about job security when automation is accelerating?War and Oil
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, per a Reuters report.
- About a third of the world’s seaborne oil exports passed through the Strait in 2025.
- Threatening to BURN any ship that attempts to go through
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical, narrow chokepoint about 90–104 miles (145–167 km) long and 21–60 miles (33–95 km) wide. At its narrowest, it is only 21 miles (33 km) across, with shipping lanes in each direction restricted to just two miles wide to accommodate massive oil tanker traffic, representing about one-fifth of global oil consumption
- Meanwhile - lots of production halts - Oil screamed to $115 on Sunday night before cooler heads prevailed AND SPR talk hit the tape.
- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?Just in...
- President Trump says "I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all shipping lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible"
- BUT, who would even want to take the chance of moving through that area - even if there is insurance?Meanwhile LNG
-Daily charter rates for LNG tankers in the Atlantic Basin have surged to over $200,000 per day.
- Rates are roughly double levels seen less than a day earlier.
- The spike followed Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production as the conflict with Iran spread across the region.
- The new offer levels are at least three times higher than the most recent assessed LNG tanker rate of $61,500, according to Spark Commodities earlier Monday.
- Despite the elevated asking prices, no transactions have yet been confirmed at these levels.You thought that was BAD?
- Europe in bad shape with Nat Gas after Qatar halted production (accounts for 20% of global LNG supply)Euro Nat Gas
Amazon Data Loss - HEY WHAT ABOUT THIS?
- Amazon Web Services said late Monday two of its data centers in the United Arab Emirates and a facility in Bahrain were damaged by drone strikes, taking the facilities offline.
- “In the UAE, two of our facilities were directly struck, while in Bahrain, a drone strike in close proximity to one of our facilities caused physical impacts to our infrastructure,” AWS said. “These strikes have caused structural damage, disrupted power delivery to our infrastructure, and in some cases required fire suppression activities that resulted in additional water damage.”
- This is an interesting twist on cyber-warfare - WHAT IF?
- JSD: How does this impact AI and the world tech flow?Why do/did markets keep climbing?
- Global debt climbed to a record $348 trillion at the end of 2025, after nearly $29 trillion was added over the year in the fastest yearly build-up since the pandemic surge
- The increase was driven primarily by governments, which accounted for more than $10 trillion of the rise, with the United States, China and the euro area responsible for roughly three-quarters of the jump
- Also, margin debt up 30% in 2025 - so there is that...
- No wonder there is resilience in these markets...Berkshire News
- Earnings from operations totaled $10.2 billion in Q4. That’s down more than 29% from $14.56 billion in the year-earlier period.
- Insurance underwriting profits dropped 54% to $1.56 billion from $3.41 billion a year prior. Insurance investment income slid nearly 25% from to $3.1 billion from $4.088 billion.
- This was the final quarter under Warren Buffett as CEO, who announced he was stepping down at the annual shareholders meeting last May.
- Full year overall earnings, meanwhile, fell to $66.97 billion from $89 billion a year prior.
- NO Buybacks, bit they still have more that $350B is cashINTERACTIVE BROKERS
Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/
Irritating
- UBS’ top equity strategist dialed back his view on U.S. stocks, citing mounting risks from a weakening dollar, stretched valuations and policy turbulence in Washington.
- Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, downgraded American equities to “benchmark” in a fully invested global equity portfolio, arguing that the factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.
- Market weight - no risk for this guy on the call. Can't lose as will just perform with the benchmark - DUMBDell Earnings BLOWOUT (Follow up)
- Dell reported adjusted earnings of $3.89 per share, exceeding the $3.53 per share expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG.
- The company posted $33.38 billion in revenue for the quarter, topping a forecast of $31.73 billion.
- Stock up 22% on the news and followed through on Monday
- Dell cut quote time to less that a week (prices expire)
- Dell expects revenue for its artificial intelligence servers to hit $50 billion in 2027, more than double the year prior.
- Much different story from HP that was complaining about input pricing.... Obviously Dell is much smarter at pass-though management of pricing.Jack on the Attack
- Financial technology firm Block (XYZ), run by Jack Dorsey began slashing more than 40% of its workforce (4k people) on Thursday, saying in a letter to shareholders that AI tools "have changed what it means to build and run a company."
- The AI layoffs came as the Square payment system and Cash App operator matched fourth-quarter earnings estimates, yet Block shares surged after hours.
- Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch called the layoffs "the seminal moment to date in the AI narrative and how it could transform companies as we know it going forward."
- SOOOOOO - AI is responsible for job cuts?
---- SOOOOOO - AI can replace humans and as productivity is enhanced?Duolingo
- Duolingo forecast first-quarter and 2026 bookings below expectations on Thursday as it shifts strategy toward faster user growth, a move it said will weigh on bookings growth and profitability this year, sending the company's shares down more 23% after hours last week.
- The company plans to roll out more AI-driven speaking tools to free users, reducing friction that previously nudged learners toward paid plans
- Poster child of how AI can kill your business?
- However, earnings/financials looked pretty good and there is a strategy there that may be beneficial
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
There is a tech pundit whose name be John,
Whose sharp takes went late into dawn.
He hit pause for some care,
But with grit (and repair),
Soon he'll be back oh so steady and strong.See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
DOD – Disrupter Disrupters
China markets reopening after Lunar New Year
Mexico Cartel Wars
Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- The CTP for Caterpillar announced
- DOD - Disrupter Disrupters
- China markets reopening after Lunar New Year
- Mexico Cartel Wars (Jalisco)Markets
- Mortgage Rates - looking good!
- Tariffs found illegal - that is not stopping anything
- Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs
- Monday's big drop and AI taking a bite out of stock pricesTariffs
- First, who actually knows what is going on. 100% chaos
- Supreme court ruled illegal (6-3)
- 10% flat across all countries immediately added
- Wait a day and make that 15%
- FedEx seeks refund for illegal IEEPA tariffs imposed by Trump after the Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs exceeded authority
- Numerous lawsuits expected for IEEPA tariff refunds
- Apple has spent more than $3 billion on tariffs since President Donald Trump enacted his trade policies. What about that? (HOW TO FIGURE OUT WHO GETS THE REFUND)
--- Estimate that $175B tariffs have been collected alreay
- A group of 22 U.S. Senate Democrats on Monday introduced legislation that would require President Donald Trump's administration to fully refund within 180 days all of the revenue, with interest, collected from tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.
- The legislation would require the Customs and Border Protection agency, which collects tariffs at U.S. ports of entry, to prioritize small businesses.
- The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on TuesdayStop The Presses
- After years of JCD's rants.......
- Apple will soon introduce MacBooks with touch screens
- Apple Inc.'s initial touch Macs will have the Dynamic Island at the center top of the display and OLED screen technology.
The new MacBook Pro models will have a refreshed, dynamic user interface that can shift between being optimized for touch or point-and-click input.Europe Reacts
- "The current situation is not conducive to delivering 'fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial' transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides" in the joint statement setting out the terms of last year's trade agreement, the Commission said. "A deal is a deal."
- All active discussions are halted on any USA/Europe trade dealThe Potential Winners
- Brazil and China may be the winners here
- Chinese President Xi Jinping has a boost in bargaining power after the US Supreme Court invalidated Donald Trump's broad emergency tariffs, a key point of leverage over China.
- The removal of tariff threats will make it harder for Trump to press Xi for larger purchases of certain products and leaves him without a key weapon to strike back if Chinese negotiators make fresh demands.
- Xi's team will likely push harder for access to advanced semiconductors, the removal of trade restrictions on Chinese companies, and reduced US support for self-ruled Taiwan, according to Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University's Center for American Studies.NVDA Earnings
- NVIDIA drops its fiscal Q4 2026 (ended Jan 2025) results tomorrow—another make-or-break moment for the AI trade.
- The bar is sky-high after years of blowout beats, but whispers of "peak AI" and slowing growth momentum have investors on edge.
--- Consensus Expectations :
----Revenue: ~$65.6–$66.1 billion (up ~67–68% YoY from last year's ~$39B; guided $65B ±2% in prior report)
------EPS (adjusted/non-GAAP): ~$1.50–$1.53 (up ~70–72% YoY from $0.89).
--------Gross margins: Targeting ~75% non-GAAP (holding strong despite supply chain noise).
-----------Key driver: Data Center segment expected to crush ~$58–$60B, fueled by Blackwell ramp and hyperscaler spend.Home Depot Earnings
- The home-improvement retailer gained 2.7% after posting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.72 per share on revenues of $38.20 billion.
- That exceeded the per-share earnings of $2.54 on revenues of $38.12 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG.AMD News
- The semiconductor maker rose about 11% after it inked a multiyear deal with Meta to lend up to 6 gigawatts of its graphics processing units to artificial intelligence data centers.
- The cost of the deal is unclear, but the companies’ agreement includes a a performance-based warrant that could amount to up to 160 million of AMD shares, according to a statement dated Tuesday.
- Meta has committed to deploying up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of AMD's Instinct GPUs (high-end graphics processing units optimized for AI workloads) to power its massive AI data centers.
- Analysts estimate the GPU portion alone could be worth $60–$100+ billion over 5+ yearsMortgage Rates
- The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.99% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily, matching its lowest levels since 2022.
- Last year at this time the rate was 6.89%.
- A buyer putting 20% down on the median priced home, about $400,000 according to the National Association of Realtors, would have a monthly payment of $1,916 for the principal and interest. One year ago, that payment would have been $2,105, a difference of $189.Life Insurance Record
- Manulife Financial Corp. sold a $300 million life insurance policy in Singapore, topping what Guinness World Records certified as the most valuable policy ever issued.
- The policy surpasses the previous record of $250 million, set by HSBC Life in Hong Kong in 2024. Manulife said in a statement Tuesday that the deal reflects growing demand from ultra-wealthy clients to preserve their assets.
- In Singapore over the past 12 months, Manulife has issued 25 individual policies each worth more than $50 million.Bitcoin Rout
- Gemini said it was axing as much as a quarter of its staff and exiting the UK, European Union and Australia entirely.
- This week, it parted with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer and chief legal officer, all in a single day.
- Its stock has fallen more than 80% from a post-listing high last year, collapsing its market value from a peak of almost $4 billion to under $700 million.Over the Greenland
- USA sending a "hospital ship" over
- Trump's post on the ship came hours after Denmark's Joint Arctic Command said it had evacuated a crew member who required urgent medical treatment from a U.S. submarine in Greenlandic waters, seven nautical miles outside of Greenland's capital, Nuuk.
- Greenland said thanks but no thanksSo Long!
- U.S. investors are pulling money out of their own stock market at the fastest pace in at least 16 years as Big Tech returns fade and better-performing overseas markets look more attractive.
- In the last six months, U.S.-domiciled investors have pulled some $75 billion from U.S. equity products, with $52 billion flowing out since the start of 2026 alone, the most in the first eight weeks of the year since at least 2010AI Disruption - DOD (Disruption of Disrupters)
COBOL
- CrowdStrike -9.8% and other cybersecurity names under heavy pressure again as AI disruption fears build following Anthropic’s Claude Code release
- - Cybersecurity stocks are under broad pressure today, extending recent weakness following Friday's launch of Claude Code Security by Anthropic. Claude Code Security scans codebases for vulnerabilities and suggests software patches for human review, fueling a narrative that AI platforms may be moving more quickly into parts of the security workflow than investors had previously expected.
For cybersecurity, that raises concern around the forward demand outlook and competitive positioning, particularly in areas tied to application security, cloud security, identity workflows, and security operations automation, where AI-native tools could start to narrow perceived differentiation.
- The move suggests investors are still sorting through the implications for product overlap, pricing power, and competitive positioning as AI capabilities evolve quickly.
- IBM shares dropping toward lows of the session; attributed to news that Claude can automate cobol modernization(Common Business-Oriented Language) is a high-level, English-like programming language created in 1959 for business, finance, and administrative data processing. It is renowned for its verbosity, readability, and reliability, processing massive amounts of transactions on mainframe systems,, notes NetCom Learning and IBM. Despite being decades old, it remains critical in banking, insurance, and government sectors.
- It is estimated that 70-80% of the world's business transactions are processed by COBOLGrok's Prediction about Future of OpenAi/ChatGPT
ScenarioLikelihood (My Estimate)Key FactorsOutcome for OpenAI/ChatGPTThriving LeaderMedium (40%)Sustained breakthroughs, partnerships (e.g., Microsoft), regulatory winsOpenAI as AI giant; ChatGPT as ecosystem hub for agents/robotsEvolved SurvivorHigh (50%)Adaptation to agents/hardware; mergersExists but rebranded; ChatGPT integrated into daily life toolsDecline/AcquisitionLow (10%)Overcompetition, funding collapseAbsorbed or legacy; ChatGPT commoditized or obsoleteQuick check on Europe Shares
- European company earnings growth is picking up this reporting season against a tentatively improving economic backdrop, but wary investors are demanding more than solid results to justify sky-high valuations.
- Companies representing 57% of Europe's market capitalization have reported so far, achieving average earnings growth of 3.9% in the fourth quarter, ahead of estimates for a final result of a contraction of 1.1%
--- That is a big differential.... +3.9 vs -1.1Iran Talks
- News over the weekend that Iran will look to discuss a variety of items and potentially get a deal.... energy, mining and aircraft
- Best guess: Iran will string us along like Russia is doing and we will say we have some kind of bogus deal.
--- There is some talk of US "going in" as we are building military presence. Supposedly there are some saying it could be a multi-week incursion.
- What is the plan - Regime change?What is this?
- A divided Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that Americans can’t sue the U.S. Postal Service, even when employees deliberately refuse to deliver mail.
- By a 5-4 vote, the justices ruled against a Texas landlord, Lebene Konan, who alleges her mail was intentionally withheld for two years. Konan, who is Black, claims racial prejudice played a role in postal employees’ actions.
- Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for a majority of five conservative justices, said the federal law that generally shields the Postal Service from lawsuits over missing, lost and undelivered mail includes “the intentional nondelivery of mail.”
- So can ballots just be thrown in garbage for mail-ins for one party that will throw out another party's?
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
HE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
Self Created Valuation Boosts
Apple Announces new Podcast push
AI – A breakdown
Playing them like a fiddle – Warner Brothers
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- A NEW CTP just announced
- China releasing new AI models
- AI - A breakdown - we are on overload
- Big Employment news....Markets
- Self Created Valuation Boosts
- Apple Announces new Podcast push
- Playing them like a fiddle - Warner BrothersQuick Note - Going to rip up the playbook on something this week on TDI Podcast. Anyone who owns an annuity should listen to what is about to come on next Sundays show.....
No Agenda...
Olympics - Anything to discuss?
MONEY FOR ALL
- The average tax refund is 10.9% higher so far this season, compared to about the same point in 2025, according to early filing data from the IRS.
- The 2026 tax season opened Jan. 26, and the average refund amount was $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up from $2,065 about one year prior, the IRS reported Friday night.
- As of Feb. 6, the total amount refunded was more than $16.9 billion, up 1.9% compared to last year, according to the IRS release. That figure reflects current-year returns only.
- This is partly because there were excess-witholdings from last year on the rules changed and paycheck withholdings were not adjusted. This is a one time situation..Emplyment
By March 2025, the level was revised down by 898,000.By December 2025 (preliminary), down by 1,029,000.
- 4.3%
- "Better" than expected payrolls number
- A major revision was released last Wednesday. Overall 2025 job growth was much weaker than initially reported. The total net change for the full year 2025 was revised down from +584,000 jobs to just +181,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) — an average of only about 15,000 jobs added per month instead of ~49,000. This made 2025 one of the weakest years for job creation in recent non-recession periods.
- Employment levels were consistently overstated throughout 2025 by roughly 800,000 to over 1 million jobs, peaking around mid-year. For example:- Monthly changes were also adjusted downward in most cases (e.g., August's originally reported -26,000 became a larger loss of -70,000; September's +108,000 became +76,000).
- The revisions reflect normal annual benchmarking, but this one was unusually large (larger than the typical 0.2% average over the prior decade), likely due to factors like overestimation of business births or other data mismatches.
- In short, the data reveals that the U.S. labor market in 2025 was significantly softer than the monthly headlines suggested at the time — job growth was overstated by a substantial margin, painting a picture of a much weaker employment picture for the year.AI Updates
- While U.S. markets have been focused on the impact of Anthropic and Altruist’s tools on software and financial services, China’s tech giants have released AI models this week that have shown advancements in robotics and video generation.
- Google is reporting that China's AI models are just MONTHS behind western models
- However - is this progress? In a video demo, Alibaba showed a robot with pincers for hands that appeared to be able to count oranges, pick them up and place them in a basket. It was also shown taking milk out of a fridge.
- Alibaba on Monday unveiled a new artificial intelligence model Qwen 3.5 designed to execute complex tasks independently, with big improvements in performance and cost that the Chinese tech giant claims beat major U.S. rival models on several benchmarks.
- Zhipu AI — which trades as Knowledge Atlas Technology in Hong Kong said the model approaches Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5 in coding benchmarks while surpassing Google’s Gemini 3 Pro on some tests.
- Shares of MiniMax also jumped Thursday after it launched its updated M2.5 open-source model with enhanced AI agent tools.Grok Update
- Grok, Elon Musk's AI chatbot, has been gaining ground in the U.S. over the past months, data showed, even as it draws global censure and regulatory scrutiny after being used to generate a wave of non-consensual sexualized images of women and minors.
- U.S. market share of the tool rose to 17.8% last month from 14% in December, and 1.9% in January 2025, according to data from research firm Apptopia.
- Men are still the largest % users of Grok ~ 78% (down from 89% in April 2025)AI Market Share
- ChatGPT's share slumped to 52.9% last month from 80.9% in January last year, while Gemini's grew to 29.4% from 17.3% over the same period.
AI Market Share
InfoGrapic and AI Understanding
- Have we gone through this?
- At its core, AI is technology that lets machines perform tasks that normally require human intelligence — things like understanding language, recognizing images, making decisions, or solving problems.
- Modern AI (especially since ~2022) is dominated by machine learning — systems that learn patterns from huge amounts of data instead of being explicitly programmed rule-by-rule.
- Inference is the "using" or "applying" phase of AI — when a trained model takes new input and produces an output / prediction / answer.
Contrast with training (the "learning" phase):
------ Training ? Like a student studying for years: very compute-heavy, expensive, done once (or rarely) on massive servers/GPUs, adjusts billions of parameters based on examples.
------ Inference ? Like the student taking a test or doing their job: much faster, cheaper, runs on your phone/laptop/cloud, uses the fixed knowledge from training to respond instantly.
- gentic AI takes regular AI (like chat models) to the next level: instead of just answering questions or generating text, these systems act autonomously to achieve goals with minimal human help.
"Agentic" comes from "agency" — the ability to make decisions, plan, use tools, take actions, adapt, and even learn from results — like a smart digital employee rather than just a smart answer machine.AI Infographic
Last AI Item
- A shortage of memory chips is hammering profits, derailing corporate plans, and inflating price tags on various products, with the crunch expected to get worse.
- The fundamental reason for the squeeze is the buildout of AI data centers, with companies like Alphabet and OpenAI buying up large shares of memory chip production, leaving consumer electronics producers fighting over a dwindling supply.
- The resulting price spikes are causing concern, with some warning of "RAMmageddon" and others predicting that memory chip prices will go "parabolic", bringing lavish profits to some companies but painful prices to the rest of the electronics sector.Here is something:
- Gallup will no longer track presidential approval ratings after nearly 90 years
- Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the Washington, DC-based management company began tracking the president's job performance 88 years ago.
- Gallup told USA TODAY it will no longer publish "favorability ratings of political figures," a decision it said "reflects an evolution in how Gallup focuses its public research and thought leadership."
- Gallup said the ratings are now "widely produced, aggregated and interpreted, and no longer represent an area where Gallup can make its most distinctive contribution."
- "Our commitment is to long-term, methodologically sound research on issues and conditions that shape people’s lives," the company wrote, adding that its work will continue through the Gallup Poll Social Series, the Gallup Quarterly Business Review, the World Poll and more.
- Seems like they are unable to SHAPE opinion due to social media etc.....?Apple Podcast Update
- Big news!
- Apple on Monday announced that it will bring a new integrated video podcast experience to Apple Podcasts this spring.
- The move comes as video viewership continues to reshape podcasting. About 37% of people over age 12 watch video podcasts monthly, according to Edison Research.
- The update brings Apple Podcasts more in-line with its competitors Spotify, YouTube and now Netflix, which have increasingly leaned into video podcasting.
-“Twenty years ago, Apple helped take podcasting mainstream by adding podcasts to iTunes, and more than a decade ago, we introduced the dedicated Apple Podcasts app,” said Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of Services, in a statement. “
- By bringing a category-leading video experience to Apple Podcasts, we’re putting creators in full control of their content and how they build their businesses, while making it easier than ever for audiences to listen to or watch podcasts.”M&A
- Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips.
- Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company’s common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027.
- The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement.Inflation - This helps
- PepsiCo, will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results.Miran - Moving
- Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, CNBC has confirmed.
- He joined the CEA in January 2025, but had been on leave from that post since last September when he filled the unexpired term of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.- He reamins on Fed boardNo Biggie????
- There are some astonishing cased being reported of Bad AI in the operating room
- JNJ's TruDi Navigation System - Since AI was added to the device, the FDA has received unconfirmed reports of at least 100 malfunctions and adverse events.
- At least 10 people were injured between late 2021 and November 2025, according to the reports. Most allegedly involved errors in which the TruDi Navigation System misinformed surgeons about the location of their instruments while they were using them inside patients’ heads during operations.
- Cerebrospinal fluid reportedly leaked from one patient’s nose. In another reported case, a surgeon mistakenly punctured the base of a patient’s skull. In two other cases, patients each allegedly suffered strokes after a major artery was accidentally injured.Cuba
- The main airport has putt out a bulletin that they are out of Jet Fuel
- Blackouts and lack of other fuels are creating big problems
- No airlines have stopped running at this point, but many will as they cannot refuel
- This is a bigger problem for cargo planes (supplies) that may not be able to risk flying to Cuba as they will not be able to get out.Dalio Warning
- Legendary investor Ray Dalio said on Tuesday the world was “on the brink” of a capital war.
- He said central banks and sovereign wealth funds were already preparing for measures like foreign exchange and capital controls.
- "When money is weaponized using measures like trade embargoes, blocking access to capital markets, or using ownership of debt as leverage."
- “Capital, money, matters,” Dalio said Tuesday. “We’re seeing capital controls … taking place all over the world today, and who will experience that is questionable. So, we are on the brink — that doesn’t mean we are in [a capital war now], but it means that it’s a logical concern.”
- Could this be why gold and siver are being hoarded (physical assets over digital currency?
- Is China's edict to banks to diversify away from US Treasuries a sign?Self Boosted Valuation
- Waymo is aiming to raise about $16 billion in a financing-round that would value it at nearly $110 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
- Alphabet would provide about $13 billion to the autonomous driving firm while the rest would come from investors including Sequoia Capital, DST Global and Dragoneer Investment Group, the report added.
- Soooooo - Waymo is a unit of Alphabet.... Alphabet providing 80% of the funding that boosts valuations..... HmmmmmmmmWarner Brothers
- Warner Bros Discovery Inc is considering reopening sale talks with Paramount Skydance Corp after receiving its amended offer.
- The Warner Bros board is discussing whether Paramount could offer a path to a superior deal, which may ignite a second bidding war with Netflix Inc.
- Paramount submitted amended terms that addressed several concerns, including covering a fee owed to Netflix and offering to backstop a Warner Bros debt refinancing.Economics Coming Up
- Short Week - plenty of Reports
- Wednesday - Durable Goods, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes
- Thursday - Philly Fed, Initial Claims
- Friday: PCE, Personal Income and Spending, GDP for Q4 (3.6%)
----- New Home Sales, UMich Feb Final
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?ANNOUNCING THE
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLARWinners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my)
Hang on – Wild ride here
Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!
Shakeup in Dietville
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Interactive Brokers
Warm-Up
- Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my)
- Need a stock for CTP
- Hang on - Wild ride here
- Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!
- Shakeup in DietvilleMarkets
- Massive moved during the week -
- Bitcoin clipped $60k before rebounding
- DJIA tops 50,000 for the first time
- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!
- CAT == 1,100 points on the DJIA in 2026Superbowl and Superbowl ads
- Game review
- Any ad stick out?
- $10M per ad this year
- Half Time with Bad Bunny?
- Anthropic busting on OpenAiLast Week!
- Massive moved - quick calc showed that about $1T was wiped from market caps in the sell-off, particularly in tech names.
- HOWEVER - Friday alone is estimated to have added $1.5T to market capAI Ripping Through
- Plenty of names getting cooked over AI announcements
- First it was the software companies
- Now there are names in legal and finance that got clocked
- Today - Altruist.ai can do tax planning and that hurt companies in financial spaceEarnings Season Update
- Reporting so far: 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results.
- Beat rate: 76% have topped EPS estimates (vs. 5-yr average: 78% (slightly lower) vs. 10-yr average: 76% (in line)
- Magnitude of beats (aggregate): earnings are 7.6% above estimates vs. 5-yr average: 7.7% (about the same) vs. 10-yr average: 7.0% (a bit better)
- Nothing great, like GoldilocksEarnings Highlights
- Palantir (PLTR): Reported strong Q4 results early in the week , beating estimates with revenue ~$1.41B (vs. ~$1.33B expected) and EPS $0.25 (vs. $0.23). Guidance for 2026 was upbeat (~61% revenue growth). Shares rallied sharply initially (~7–11% post-earnings), but gave back some gains amid broader tech volatility (e.g., down ~11–22% in parts of the week from peaks).
- AMD: Reported mid-week, beating EPS (~$1.53 vs. lower expectations) with solid data center growth (~39%). However, Q1 guidance disappointed relative to high expectations in the AI chip space. Shares sank dramatically — down ~15–17% the next day, with some reports noting up to 20%+ drops at points, contributing to broader chip sector pressure.
- Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG): Reported beating on revenue (~$113.8B) and EPS (~$2.82), with strong core performance. But capex guidance for 2026 ($175–$185B, roughly double prior levels) sparked AI spending worries. Shares dipped post-earnings (down ~0.5–5% initially, flat to lower the next day, with some volatility pulling it below key moving averages).
- Amazon (AMZN): Reported after hours on February 5, with mixed results — EPS ~$1.95 (narrow miss vs. ~$1.97 expected), but solid overall. The big negative was a surprise $200B capex forecast for 2026 (well above expectations), tied to AI/cloud buildout. Shares plunged sharply — down ~7–10% in after-hours/extended trading, with Friday moves around -5–8% in some sessions.Recent Tech CAPEX announcements
- Amazon (AMZN) — Guided to approximately $200 billion in capex for 2026 (a massive jump from ~$125–131 billion in 2025, with ~80% likely AI-related per analyst commentary). This was the largest single-company figure and a major surprise, contributing heavily to the week's "wild" reactions.
- Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) — Guided to $175–185 billion in capex for 2026 (roughly double the $91 billion spent in 2025, far above analyst expectations of ~$115–119 billion). Emphasis was on AI compute capacity, servers, data centers, and networking to meet demand for Gemini and cloud services.
- Meta Platforms (META) — Guidance from late January (but heavily discussed last week): $115–135 billion for 2026 (up significantly from ~$70–72 billion in 2025, potentially an ~87% increase).
- Microsoft (MSFT) — No new full explicit 2026 guidance in early February (fiscal year runs July–June), but recent quarterly run-rate and analyst projections put it around $97–145 billion (with some sources citing ~$105 billion or higher based on Q2 spending trends and signals of continued growth from prior levels of ~$88 billion in FY2025).
------!!!!Combined 2026 capex projected at $635–665 billion (low/high ends) or up to $650–700 billion in some reports — a ~60–74% increase from their collective ~$381 billion in 2025.Market Reaction from all of this....
- Markets were a bit spooked on the Anthropic announcement earlier in the week - software sold off and set a sour mood
- Microsoft dumped pretty hard as the amount of spend was higher than anticipated, especially with some slower growth in Azure.
- Amazon took a beating on the increased spend they anticipate *(extra by $50B)
- BUT: Friday markets rallied as there was realization that the $200B spend by Amazon would seep into the economy and fuel infrastructure spending along with chips, tech etc.Other Earnings of Interest
- Reddit reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday in which the social media company beat on the top and bottom lines.
- The company said it expects first-quarter sales to come in the range of $595 million to $605 million, which is higher than Wall Street expectations of $577 million.
- Reddit also announced a $1 billion share repurchase program.
- Reddit gets about $250 million a year from OpenAi and Google to have your data for training their LLMsWhile we are on the subject
- Friday, DJIA hit 50,000 - first time ever!
- Up 1,200 point of which approx 350 was from caterpillar and 280 was from Goldman SachsHats off to WalMart
- Walmart Inc. shares pushed its market capitalization past $1 trillion on Tuesday for the first time ever|
- Big transformation over the pst year - Walmart has maintained its appeal to households looking for value, its online offerings are drawing new, wealthier shoppers seeking convenience.Google Bond Offering
- Issuing several tranches of bonds, denominated in Stirling - one as long as 100 years
- Would you buy that?
- The Google parent is set to raise $20 billion from a US dollar bond offering on Monday — more than the $15 billion initially expected — and is also pitching investors on what would be its first ever offerings in Switzerland and the UK.
- The latter would include a rare sale of 100-year bonds, the first time a tech company has tried such an offering since the dotcom frenzy of the late 1990sFat Profits in Dietville
- Really interesting sequence of events happening...
- Hims launches compounded pill at prices as low as $49 per month
- Analysts cite questions on efficacy, legality of pill
- Hims' move shifts focus from Novo's strong Wegovy pill launch
- Broader obesity market whipsawed as pricing pressure risesTHEN..
- Hims and Hers Health shares dive 14% after hours on Friday (Down 25% on Monday)
- FDA cites concerns over quality, safety, federal law
- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Friday it would take action against telehealth provider Hims & Hers, for its $49 weight-loss pill, including restricting access to the drug's ingredients and referring the company to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal law.AND....
- Eli Lilly last Wednesday posted fourth-quarter earnings and revenue and 2026 guidance that blew past estimates, as demand for its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro soars.
- The pharmaceutical giant anticipates its 2026 revenue will come in between $80 billion and $83 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG.
- Meanwhile, NOVO had a really bad outlook that took the shares down 13% after the report.Japan Markets Soar
- Japanese stocks jumped to a record high Monday, leading gains in the region after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory.
- The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped past 57,000 for the first time before paring gains to close 3.9% higher at 56,363.94, while the Topix also notched a record high, closing at 3,783.94, up 2.3%.Employment Report?
- Government shutdown is forcing them to postpone again (Which is dumb)
- Number due this Wednesday
- Maybe because of this:U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs for the month, up 118% from the same period a year ago and 205% from December 2025. The total marked the highest for any January since 2009.
- At the same time, companies announced just 5,306 new hires, also the lowest January since 2009, which is when Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking such data.
- Also, job openings fell sharply in December to 6.54 million, to their lowest since September 2020. - Available jobs are down by more than 900,000 just since October.
- NO! Ai and advancements in tech have noting to do with this! NO NO NOM&A
- Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips.
- Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company’s common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027.
- The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement.Inflation - This helps
- PepsiCo (PEP.O), opens new tab will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results.Miran - Moving
- Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, CNBC has confirmed.
- He joined the CEA in January 2025, but had been on leave from that post since last September when he filled the unexpired term of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.- He reamins on Fed boardNo Biggie????
- There are some astonishing cased being reported of Bad AI in the operating room
- JNJ's TruDi Navigation System - Since AI was added to the device, the FDA has received unconfirmed reports of at least 100 malfunctions and adverse events.
- At least 10 people were injured between late 2021 and November 2025, according to the reports. Most allegedly involved errors in which the TruDi Navigation System misinformed surgeons about the location of their instruments while they were using them inside patients’ heads during operations.
- Cerebrospinal fluid reportedly leaked from one patient’s nose. In another reported case, a surgeon mistakenly punctured the base of a patient’s skull. In two other cases, patients each allegedly suffered strokes after a major artery was accidentally injured.Cuba
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
- The main airport has putt out a bulletin that they are out of Jet Fuel
- Blackouts and lack of other fuels are creating big problems
- No airlines have stopped running at this point, but many will as they cannot refuel
- This is a bigger problem for cargo planes (supplies) that may not be able to risk flying to Cuba as they will not be able to get out.ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
-
WORST DAY EVER for SILVER
Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop
New Fed Chair named
Pausing on space
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Interactive Brokers
Warm-Up
- WORST DAY EVER for SILVER
- Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop
- New Fed Chair named
- Pausing on spaceMarkets
- Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter"
- Deep dive into January economic results
- USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead
- ELON - PT Barnum moveCold Snap
- On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923.
- Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets
- Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure.
- They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip.
- The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event.Right on Schedule
- Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed?
- Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high
- Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike.THIS!
- Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company’s proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.”
- “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.”Then
Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out.
- What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment?
- Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment
- GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERKFungus - -Interesting
January Economic Review
- Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity.
- While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors.Employment
— Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower.
— Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago.
— Long-term unemployment didn’t change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%.
— Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year.
— Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year’s levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply.FOMC / Interest Rates
— The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
— Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target.
— Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait.
- Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike.
- The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing.
- Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place.
- Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us.
- Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase.
- Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair)GDP & Federal Budget
— Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs.
— Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined.
— The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year.Inflation & Consumer Spending
— Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November.
— Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year.
— The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing.
— Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024.Housing
— Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low.
— Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago.
— New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year.
— New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms.Manufacturing
— Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year.
— Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped.
— Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries.Imports & Exports
— Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025.
— The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased.
— For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger.Consumer Confidence
Earnings
— Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December.
— Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk.— Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong.
— 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%.
— Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages.
— The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
— Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services.
— The Health Care sector shows the largest earnings declines among lagging categories.
— The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at ~22.2, elevated relative to 5-and 10-year averages, signaling continued optimism despite tariff and cost concerns.
— FactSet also notes the S&P 500 is reporting a record-high net profit margin of 13.2%, the highest since 2009.INTERACTIVE BROKERS
Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/
S3XY No More
- Tesla is ending production of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on autonomous technology and humanoid robots (Optimus).
- Do we have any idea with the TAM for either of these are?
- Huge assumptions that Robotaxi will be a bug part of the global transportation. But, what if it isn't?
- Unproven being built, taking out the proven - investors were not too happy about this...Stock was down after earnings showed continued sluggish EV sales and BIG Capex for Robotaxi refit, robots and chip manufacturing.But...
- Friday - not to allow TESLA stock to move down tooo much.
- With SpaceEx looking for an IPO in June - valuations have moved from $800B to 1.5T supposedly.
- Now there is discussion of merging in xAI and possibly Tesla
- Tesla shares dropped after earningsFED CHAIR PICK
- Drumroll: Kevin Warsh
- Seems like a good pick from the aspect of experience and ability
- Deficit reducer?
- More hawkish than market expected?
- Announce Friday after several leaks in the morningAnd then...
- Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980.
-It was down 35% during the day - the worst daily plunge ever on record.
- It was the worst decline since the March 1980 Hunt Brothers crash.
- The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh’s nomination.
- However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits.- USD Spiked higher - Gold was down 10%
- GOLD saw a drop of 10% to the close - 12% intraday - this was also a record
- Bitcoin is down 25% from its recent level 2 weeks ago
- ALL BEING BLAMED ON THE FED CHAIR PICK
-- QUESTION - Will Trump back-peddle this OR talk to supporters in congress or tell them not to confirm him if markets continue to act squirrely?Fed Statement and Rates
- Fed out with statement - no change on rates
- Changes: Inflation up, employment steady, economy strong
- Does not bode for much in the way of cuts - probably on hold though end of Powell termApple Earnings
- Apple reported blowout first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and predicted growth of as much as 16% in the current quarter, matching the period that just ended.
- Sales could be even better, Apple said, if the company just secure enough chips to meet its customers’ iPhone demands.
- The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period.
- Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion.
- “The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on, and at this time, we’re seeing less flexibility in supply chain than normal,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said.
- Stock up slightly - no great moves....Blue Origin
- Blue Origin will pause tourist flights to space for “no less than two years” to prioritize development of its moon lander and other lunar technologies.
- The decision reflects Blue Origin’s commitment to the nation’s goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence.
- The pause in tourist flights grounds the company’s reusable New Shepard rocket, which has sent more than 90 people to the edge of space and back to experience brief periods of weightlessness.
- Datacenters on the Moon? (sounds like a Pink Floyd album)
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
- Show more
