Episodes
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This week it’s time for listener questions! And pls note that members of the Mega Orderer’s club get their questions answered first. Jane and Jason discuss: why Russia is pretending to be happy with Starmer resigning, the potential role of Turkey, Saudi, Pakistan and Egypt in Ordering the Strait of Hormuz, Elon Musk becoming the world’s first trillionaire, whether Iran and America will ever agree on anything, the US’ behaviour throughout the World Cup, and why western governments seemingly can’t get anything done and what happened to bold elected centrist leaders.
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
Read: Big Tech is stoking unrest in the UK. Why? https://www.ft.com/content/0f3e33d2-0b9e-481d-a911-245d8cc01a9c?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Listen to Keen On: The Trouble with Trillionaires: Mordecai Kurz on Capitalism, Democracy, and the Second Gilded Age: https://www.keenon.tv/videos/the-trouble-with-trillionaires-mordecai-kurz-on-capitalism-democracy-and-the-second-gilded-age/
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Don’t you just love when decency interjects and sometimes people do the right thing, the orderly thing, the sane thing? Well voters of Makerfield have chosen order and unity over disorder and division, and now Starmer has done the right thing. The Orderly Transition to Burnham is on its way and it is an example of a prime opportunity for the institutions of Britain to showcase themselves to the domestic and international publics as orderly and functional. So Jason starts by introducing this existing moment and then pivoting to regularly scheduled programming about international ordering that still works: NATO.
With the NATO Summit in Ankara fast approaching, will the fractures between Europe and America be on full display? Or will one of the world’s most successful alliances in human history come together and make a show of unity?
To preview the summit and survey global affairs from peacemaking to defence spending, Jason is joined by Ambassador Alessandro Minuto-Rizzo, the President of the NATO Defense College Foundation and former Deputy Secretary General of NATO (2001-8). The duo discuss what will come out of the Ankara communique, the future of Italian politics, and as they Order the Disorder - the role of NATO in the years to come. Ambassador Minuto-Rizzo puts forth his solutions to the Ukraine war, various ideas why giving up territory might not be that important these days, and his overall philosophy of optimism and keeping calm and carrying on. It might not be how everyone would look at global affairs, but it is very interesting that a man with five decades of high level diplomatic experience has this approach. Hope you enjoy.
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
For more on the work of the Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/
For more on Amb Minuto-Rizzo’s background and that of the foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us/
For more on Amb Minuto-Rizzo’s comments on global security alliances: https://www.natofoundation.org/regions-at-the-centre-cooperative-security-cooperation-versus-fragmentation/
For a great pod on what Burnham needs to do for an Orderly transition: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-fourcast/id1542796249?i=1000773763527
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Missing episodes?
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In this episode of Disorder Latest, Jason is joined by Thomas de Waal, journalist, author, and Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe who has spent decades studying the politics, conflicts, and societies of the Caucasus and wider Eurasian region. His book ‘The Caucasus: An Introduction’, is a must read for anyone looking to understand the region—its ethnic diversity, its ties to Russia, its cults of personality, and its geopolitical importance.
Jason and Thomas discuss the June 7 Armenian election—won by pro-EU incumbent Nikol Pashinyan--, the Trump negotiated peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and whether Georgia is moving permanently away from Europe and the West.
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Producer: Sam Cluely
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
Get Thomas’ book at https://www.amazon.co.uk/Caucasus-Introduction-Thomas-Waal/dp/0195399773
Listen to our previous episodes with Armen Sarkissian, Armenia’s former president https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/OWJlOTI5YTYtMDBjZC0xMWVmLTg0N2MtMmIzNDcwZTAyMDQx
And for more on the Armenian election: https://apnews.com/article/armenia-election-result-pashinyan-7168ab86aa0d9f2c967171c91c9611c9
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For a special live edition of Disorder, we come to you live from the United Nations Association – UK, where Jason, Jane and Mark were joined by a special guest-- Alexis Akwagyiram, Managing Editor for Africa at Semafor.
Mark and Jason discussed the latest disorder in the UK and if Andy Burnham might be able to bring Order to Britain? But will he even be able to order its bond markets? Jane and Jason look at the reigniting of fighting between Israel and Iran, and what happens next, and Alexis and Jane discussed the fallout from the disorderly war on inflation and food prices in Africa and provide the latest on Nigeria and the role of African countries in restoring some global order.
For a full, unedited edition of the episode with full q and a, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club
Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
For full list of Makerfield Election candidates visit https://makerfieldcandidates.co.uk/
Watch Wes Streeting on News Agents https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VUDvtZWrtg
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Over the weekend Iran launched waves of missiles at Israel, while Israel retaliated against military targets and a petrochemical complex in Iran, as an uneasy two-month truce appeared to break down.
Trump had earlier appeared keen to avoid an escalation, telling Bibi not to respond to the first barrage of Iranian missiles. Under the surface, Israel wants to complete the job in Lebanon, but Trump wants all the wars over so he can cover up his failure. We start the ep by Jason explaining these late-breaking developments and then introducing the electoral fight between neo-populism and progressivism in one of Latin America’s most geopolitically important countries.
As we pivot to the feature topic, we ask what is going on in Colombia's presidential election and will it jeopardise the country's peace agreement which former Disorder guest Jonathan Powell helped negotiate many moons ago? Might we see multiple Latin American countries moving to the neo-populism right helped by Trump - including the return of the Bolsonaro family in Brazil? What are the interests that the Trump administration is pursuing in Latin America? Is it mostly just about critical minerals or is it more of a shared worldview? And how can people in the continent pursue democracy and rights when the US and China are competing to get hold of their critical minerals?
This week Jane meets distinguished human rights lawyer Viviana Krsticevic, executive director of the Center for Justice and International Law, founder of GQual and member of the UN’s independent fact-finding mission on human rights in Iran. They discuss how Vivi's childhood in Argentina under the military junta left her with a determination to fight for democracy, gender equality and human rights after seeing the costs of authoritarianism firsthand, and they discuss strategies for advancing freedom and justice despite the current age of political disorder and democratic backsliding. In the Ordering the Disorder segment they discuss, Latin America's role in global politics and how the key aspects of multilateralism are highlighted by the current search for the next UN Secretary General - likely to come from Latin America.
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
For background on the electoral situation in Colombia pls consult:
https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-colombia-heads-toward-polarizing-runoff/
And https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/30/colombia-presidential-election-vote-resurgence-political-violence
Check out Vivi's interview with IranWire on human rights abuses in Iran: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFM9Z5Zyhxc
For more on Colombia, read this Q&A from the International Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-america-caribbean/colombia-united-states/right-and-left-vie-victory-colombia-under-us-shadow
And for more of Jane's recent takes, check out her recent interview with Lewis Goodall on LBC on how Trump is redefining "ceasefire" - and not in a good way - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrjB2q7qYQQ
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It is our favourite time of the month, listeners questions!
This week Jason and Jane take listener questions around topics including: Will Netanyahu be ousted in this year’s elections? Have the Israeli anti-Bibi bloc learned the lessons of Hungary before the next parliamentary elections? Can Reform UK be trusted to do what they say they will? Is a constantly changing leader now the norm in UK politics? Does Trump’s trip to China change anything? And what’s the Disordering role of the UAE in global politics? And should the West give the UAE a tough love approach to help them play the role of global citizen better?
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
Pls find out about the 8 June 530pm in Westminster live podcast event and join the Mega Orderers club or Pay for Substack here to attend here: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/disorder-live-podcast-at-un-association
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events like the 8 June 530pm Westminster event, visit disordershow.com/club
Jane’s recommended The Economist Bagehot column on whether Britain is ungovernable https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/04/22/sir-keir-starmer-cannot-govern-he-has-only-himself-to-blame
Read Will Self’s new column on Starmer as mentioned by Jane https://x.com/wself/status/2054946706723160363
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The crises across our disordered world are more interconnected than ever. As states pursue their own self-interest, genuine collective action for mutual shared benefit seems further away than ever before. How can we ever hope to Order this Disorder?
To try, Jason is joined this week by his old friend David Tafuri. David previously served as the US Department of State’s Rule of Law Coordinator for Iraq, was an outside foreign policy advisor to President Obama’s campaign in 2008, has worked for the United Nations in Turkey, and is the founder and current President of the US-Kurdistan Business Council.
The pair start with the latest in Ukraine--following up on David’s recent visit there. Then they embark on a whistle stop tour of the Middle East, exploring the latest in Iraq, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon. And… as they Order the Disorder, the discuss the situation in the Gulf, how the Gulfis and European Allies could help open Hormuz, the need to tackle misinformation, and why the Trump admin needs to put aside its destructive unilateralism and work more closely with traditional American allies on Ukraine and the Iran war.
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club
Watch more on David’s attempts to address misinformation in Ukraine: https://youtube.com/shorts/TWRqQNojKvg?si=dRu81hERC5-HYGNz
More on David’s career here: https://www.afslaw.com/attorneys/david-tafuri
Plus his reporting from Ukraine’s frontline: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYX_0c8kTjl/?igsh=eTY2dHh4Zm44eTJp
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Today marks the 18th anniversary of the arrest of Ryan Cornelius, a British businessman stuck in jail on dubious charges over a real estate development project gone awry. And yet… the UK Government is doing nothing substantive to get his release, too scared to pressure a close ally. Does this episode showcase a key aspect of the Enduring Disorder: medium power democracies are too scared to pressure their wealthy allies to abide by the rule of law?
Originally sentenced to 10 years for a ‘crime’ -- that the first Emirati judge that saw the case declared was unsubstantiated -- he remains still detained after his initially unproved sentence was extended by a further 20 years. The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has found his detention to be arbitrary, and his family has spent years campaigning for the UK and UAE authorities to secure his release.
To find out more about this case and what it reveals about international relations, Jason is joined by Chris Pagett, Ryan’s brother-in-law. This is the first in our ever-other Thursday Disorder Latest series. Chris and Jason discuss what the UK Government should (and has so far failed to) do, the ways that automatic sanctions could order the disorder, and why cases like this spread in our era of Enduring Disorder and in turn spread yet further Disorder.
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club
Read: MPs call for sanctions over British man detained in Dubai for 17 years
https://www.irishnews.com/news/uk/mps-call-for-sanctions-over-british-man-detained-in-dubai-for-17-years-HSOY7IGZZRJGNEO5TA3KGFZUYA/
Read: Dubai prisoner: Wife pleads for help to get husband home https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62162686
Read: Families of UK prisoners detained abroad urge ministers to keep promises of help https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jul/16/families-of-uk-prisoners-abroad-urge-ministers-to-keep-promises-to-help
Watch Chris in conversation with Iain Duncan Smith: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9QXdNGsj_A
A brilliant article from a few years back that tells the story in its entirety: https://www.economist.com/1843/2021/12/15/the-dubai-debt-trap
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This week on Disorder, in a slight break from the Mayhem in the UK over the possible Leadership challenge to Starmer, Jane catches up with the President and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and host of the Deep Dish podcast, Leslie Vinjamuri. Leslie and Jane used to work together at Chatham House. They start by discussing Leslie’s final project for Chatham House where she worked with a host of experts to analyse how rising powers, middle powers and US adversaries see the international order as well as new possible ideas of global Order.
Surprise, surprise mega-orderers, the conversation proves the depressing result that we already know! -- i.e. that there are no serious alternative visions of order that are emerging and no non-neo-populists are putting forth compressive visions of global order. Will the continuance of the Enduring Disorder therefore be the hallmark of our times?
Probably yes :-< On a brighter note, Leslie thinks the US will revert to a more “normal” politics in Trump’s wake. Jane is not so sure: she and Leslie discuss why the UK hasn’t been able to “get back to normal” under Keir Starmer and how the breakdown of the political centre is making it harder and harder to address the long-term economic issues that underpin Britain’s current malaise.
This week we also delve into Trump’s trip to China; the role of Europeans in enabling China, and how different camps in Washington are looking at the China trip - with think-tankers pretty skeptical that it will make any difference, while business leaders are eager to join the trip to what is, after all, the world’s second biggest market for most of them. No matter what happens there we must ask is Europe working with or against the US’s China policy? And will any coherent transatlantic order emerge out of a re-alignment over China?
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club
Leslie’s podcast, Deep Dish - https://globalaffairs.org/commentary/podcasts/deep-dish-global-affairs-podcast
Leslie on Bloomberg about Trump and Xi - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-11/us-iran-tensions-flare-ahead-of-trump-xi-meeting-video
Leslie’s Chatham House project on competing visions of the international order - https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/competing-visions-international-order
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In the May 7, 2026 UK elections, Reform won biggly. They did so well that they even stole the show from the ascendent Celtic nationalists in the periphery. Gaining thousands of councillors in England, becoming the second largest party in Wales and the joint second biggest in Scotland. Meanwhile, in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland the biggest parties (Plaid Cymru, SNP, and Sinn Fein) are all separatists. This has ushered in disorderly ‘five party politics’ in England and a real threat to the union emanating from a Celtic periphery led by parties that wish to break up the UK.
On this special episode of Disorder we ask: does the UK have a future at all anymore? Will it be very disorderly? And what are Reform’s actual policies?
To find out – and in our attempt to present a range of views on Disorder – Jason and Mark are joined by Alan Mendoza, Chief Advisor on Global Affairs to Reform UK. The duo push Alan to clarify Reform’s actual policies around local government, migration, and Reform’s attitudes to Brexit. Jason sees Reform as Disorders, but Alan makes a full throated and quite eloquent case as to why he sees Reform as Orderers rather than Disorderers.
Hopefully the debate is podcasting at its best, filled with respectful disagreements that elucidate the underlying differences in world views. Either way, Reform UK is here to stay so we might as well understand them.
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club
How the winner-takes-all voting system has turned on Labour and the Tories: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxpqyndqwlo
How Reform won votes from Swansea to Sunderland
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy2nz4gwj5o
Hear Alan’s previous appearance on Disorder: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/YTk0MzNmZDQtY2JhMS0xMWVmLWJjYTQtOGJjMjMxNmNhZTli
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Something smells royally fishy. The stench has been detected wafting from Sandringham all the way to Balmoral. The scandals around Lord Mandelson and former Prince Andrew have showcased that the rich and powerful have been operating beyond the law and that royal sinecures have been used to obscure the provenance of ill-gotten gains.
Consider: In America, you make your money. But in Britain, you can use it for access. If the Epstein affair has shown us anything, it’s that a royal seal of approval is infinitely valuable. Friendship with a top working Royal takes one from the shady jet set into the global elite establishment. And if you can buy a royal seal of approval - like Epstein did with former Prince Andrew -- you get the keys to some of the most influential people in the world.
To discuss Epstein’s relationship with Prince Andrew, Ghislaine Maxwell and Sarah Ferguson, Jason is joined this week by Andrew Lownie, author of the Sunday Times number 1 Best Selling book, Entitled: The Rise and Fall of the House of York. The pair look at what made Andrew’s personality so easily corruptible, how Andrew’s narcissism and megalomania were fueled, the role of Royal Reputation Washing across the globe, and why there could be more nasty revelations about what the royals have been up yet to come. Plus, as they Order the Disorder, they discuss making the royal family more accountable, transparent, and better at serving the British people.
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For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder
Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club
Get Andrew’s Book, Entitled: The Rise and Fall of the House of York https://www.amazon.co.uk/Entitled-bestselling-devastating-biography-written/dp/0008775451
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This week’s episode was recorded before the Trump Assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents dinner, but Jason inserted a late breaking addition to reference it at the start. In the regularly scheduled programming, Jane and Jason take a range of listener questions on topics like: Is the Iran War on or off? Does the downfall of Victor Orban mean a turn away from neo-populism and authoritarianism? Are Starmer’s incremental moves towards the EU Mega Ordering or not? Will he be forced out of office on May 8? And will the dynamics of the Iran war and higher oil prices change things between Ukraine and Russia? And what is Israeli ‘hasbarah’=public diplomacy and does it fuel antisemitism?
And as they Order the Disorder, the duo experiment with a quick fire round where they discuss: What might actually happen on US-Iran negotiations, Trump’s tanking approval ratings, his constant firing of staff, Virginia Redistricting, and what that means for this year’s Congressional midterms.
To tell us more about Disorder win a chance for money, visit disordershow.com/survey
Write us to get your question answered at [email protected]
Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases, exclusive access to live events AND A GUARENTEE WE ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS, visit disordershow.com/club
Watch Jane’s Iran series here https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLsRO_Izf4VcJkN3vlpbFdTYnx0lpZyPus
Listen to Jason on The Bunker discuss Orban’s defeat and its implications for US and EU politics here https://podcasts.apple.com/in/podcast/populism-will-eat-itself-how-orb%C3%A1ns-defeat-changes-the-game/id1496246490?i=1000761547591&l=ml
Listen to Jason on BBC Scotland talk about the Assassination attempt on Trump at the WHCA: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002vm42
Watch Jason recapitulate the Disorder Paradigm on a sister show Democrats v Dictators:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFJekUfZ6wg
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Over the last week, a spate of Jewish communal targets have been attacked in North London. According to its founder Theodore Herzl, Zionism was supposed to normalize the position of Jews in the world. Has Zionism failed or is a new consensus form of Zionism still the answer to these outbursts of Disorderly Antisemitism?
In 2026, April 21 is Israel’s Independence Day. These are tough times for the Jewish State in international public opinion. By all accounts it has made mistakes, violated international law, committed war crimes. But it has also been defending itself against an unprecedented multipronged assault. Other states don’t risk losing their international legitimacy because they have bad or immoral leadership.
Support among Americans and Europeans for Israel is down and even young diasporic Jews report increasingly negative appraisals of Israel. To investigate the situation in the Middle East, the position of Jews in Britain, and the rise of anti-semitic attacks on Britain’s Jewish community, I am joined by returning Champion Phil Rosenberg. He is the President of the Board of Deputies of British Jews. Phil is a former Labour councilor for West Hampstead and previously Director of the Faiths Forum for London.
In today’s episode, we wish to use this commemorative day to look at a few deeper questions: How is Antisemitism surging globally and why? How does Antisemitism manifest itself in the UK and Australia and how it is fascinating how differently it portrays from anti-Americanism? What is Zionism? Is it relevant in today’s world? Is it part of an orderly world or is it a Disordering ideal? What is the Role of international entities and Diasporic Jews in supporting Israel’s right to defend itself while criticizing certain policies?
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
A Partial list of the North London Arson Attacks: https://x.com/philr_r/status/2045605612072132860?s=46&t=cw4unVonh1qJ-YBPzgIl2Q
Origen Story on the Meaning of Zionism : https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/zionism-part-1/id1624704966?i=1000618863154
Call Me Back Pod.. Analysts find in the Iran-Israel-America War confirmation of their pre-existing political beliefs: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-continuation-of-war-by-other-means-with-tal-becker/id1539292794?i=1000761725136
Iran directed arson attacks in Australia and ‘fanned the flames’ of antisemitism, country’s spy chief says: https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2025%2Faug%2F26%2Firan-directed-arson-attacks-in-australia-spy-chief-says-ntwnfb&data=05%7C02%7C%7C605a5ea26d9b48554e2408de9d6ca385%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C639121287069184737%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1wSJ%2BxaXICsYlRBvsu2Rbd4MJ08DRc%2BrqlbAIv%2Fv0HU%3D&reserved=0
The most recent Sunday morning April 19 attack: https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/attempted-arson-attack-at-kenton-united-synagogue-in-northwest-london-pfbikif1
And: https://x.com/philr_r/status/2045782024338768271?s=46&t=cw4unVonh1qJ-YBPzgIl2Q
What is the Board of Deputies: https://bod.org.uk/
Phil’s Bio: https://bod.org.uk/who-we-are/phil-rosenberg/
Phil’s Article: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/were-family-not-critical-friends-rosenberg-sets-out-boards-israel-stance/
History of Israel Independence Day: https://nationaltoday.com/israel-independence-day/
Trump and Tehran’s series of mismanaged posts stall progress towards peace
Patrick Wintour https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/donald-trump-tehran-war-mismanaged-posts-progress-peace
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The Chinese are cleaning our clock when it comes to lithium batteries and EVs, while the Russians still dominate at nuclear energy? Why? Why can’t the West play the geopolitics of climate change better? Why can’t Western countries work together to prepare for, mitigate, and profit from the upcoming cataclysm? Why are we sleepwalking off the cliff?
To find out, we return to friend of the show and former Co-host Arthur Snell returns to Disorder to explore the themes of his new book, Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive it. The overall approach of the book showcases how the Enduring Disorder paradigm epitomizes the collective action challenges democracies face as they compete against each other and see-saw from one policy to another while dictatorships tend to think much more long term when it comes to how to prepare for the opportunities and challenges of climate change.
This investigation comes at a highly relevant time as the Iran War has made clear how the geopolitics of energy, electricity, AI Data centres, critical minerals, and climate change are the top table issues of our day. Arthur and Jason start off talking about the situation in the Straight of Hormuz and how developments there will affect the energy transition. They quickly pivot to a discussion of the geopolitics of the Arctic and Antarctic, especially the scramble for the Northwest Passage.
Jason points out that China has been strategic about how to benefit from climate change, while Western nations have only notched tactical successes, but have not systematically prepared for the top table challenges that climate changes poses for humanity.
As they Order the Disorder, Arthur explores who the approach of Antarctic of international legal treaties could be expanded to other domains and how we could international, socialize, and demilitarize the geopolitics of climate change.
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For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder
Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
Relentless sun and ruthless populists: how the climate crisis will change the next 20 years https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2026/mar/04/arthur-snell-interview-geopolitics-climate-crisis-book-elemental?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive it https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/arthur-snell/elemental-the-new-geography-of-climate-change-and-how-we-survive-it/9781035412945/
Listen and watch Jason explain ‘How will the Iran war reshape global supply chains?’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoZyAP5tFXo
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As the Iran conflict enters its sixth week and Trump’s ultimatum is upon us, what is Trump’s real plan here? Is it merely to Disorder, or is he genuinely seeking to negotiate his way out of this conflict?
To discuss the latest, including the role of Europe and whether the Strait of Hormuz can be theoretically and practically opened by military force, Jason is joined by Michael Stephens, senior fellow at Global Nation and an associate fellow at RUSI. He ran to be an MP for the Tories in Putney; he speaks Hebrew and Arabic; and has decades of expertise in the Gulf States, Syria, and inside the UK government. Michael and Jason discuss the theological background to the Islamic Republic’s ideology, the positive role Britain can play, whether the mere existence of this conflict helps the Chinese exert more power globally, and what the Europeans could do to Order the Disorder if they wanted to.
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club
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Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club
To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey
Listen and watch Jason explain ‘How will the Iran war reshape global supply chains?’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoZyAP5tFXo
Listen and watch Jason explain, ‘Why did Trump fire Pam Bondi?’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id8jarTtdFI
Want to learn more about Shi’i Islam and how it informs the Islamic Republic’s decision making, read Moojan Momen’s brilliant An Introduction to Shi’i Islam: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Introduction-Shii-Islam-History-Doctrines/dp/0300034997
To listen to our previous interview with Michael visit https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/Zjk5NzljMzItOGNkNS0xMWYwLWFiNGEtMDNjMjExN2VkNWU3
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This week, Mark Lobel and Jane Kinninmont take listener questions on topics including: the future of Iran and the Iranian people, the decline of Britain’s naval power, whether NATO can survive Trump’s ongoing attacked, what role the Enduring Disorder played in causing Brexit, and how to solve global inequality.
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/
Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/
Give feedback on Disorder here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/CX7JB3W
You can get in touch with Mark, to host or speak at your event here: https://www.mark-lobel.com/getintouch
Chatham House Prize | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/sudans-volunteer-led-aid-network-receives-2025-chatham-house-prize
Donate to the Emergency Response Rooms - Donate | Support Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms — SUDAN MUTUAL AID COALITION — SUDAN MUTUAL AID COALITION - https://www.mutualaidsudan.org/donate
Article that makes the case for the Iran war - https://apple.news/Ac9j4I-MHSFuj6tgL1zCiUA
Senate foreign relations committee on the folly of waiving sanctions on Iran’s oil - https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/dem/release/shaheen-schumer-reedwarner-warren-statementon-trump-administrationdecision-to-ease-iran-oil-sanctions
The Times on European leaders considering a scenario where the U.S. makes a deal with Russia and turns its back on Europe - https://apple.news/A-NCiRk_2QVCXwWoStWlppg
U.K. Parliament’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy says U.K. must plan for a transition to greater European leadership of NATO - https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/111/national-security-strategy-joint-committee/news/212889/mps-and-lords-call-for-more-clarity-on-governments-plan-for-uk-national-security/
Frankly podcast on “What To Do As The World Falls Apart” which Jane found super interesting - and which highlighted the need to think now, in the current window of relative stability, about the institutions of the future, before the institutions of today actually fall apart (referenced in our discussion on NATO) - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-great-simplification-with-nate-hagens/id1604218333?i=1000756316022
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The world is steeped in conflict. From Ukraine to the Middle East to Sudan, so what role do UN Peacekeepers play in a world with little peace? And what role can they play
To discuss, Jane Kinninmont is joined by Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations. They discuss the current role of UN peacekeepers, what they can and cannot do, and how they can find a role in a world where fewer peace agreements are being made.
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/
Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
Read more on UN Peacekeeping here: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/un-at-80-why-it-needs-to-reinvigorate-peacekeeping/
Read more on why UN Peacekeeping works here:
https://cic.nyu.edu/resources/conflict-and-violence-prevention-works-how-do-we-sell-it-politically/
Jane adds:
The Institute for Economics and Peace has highlighted the long-term downward trend in funding for peacekeeping and peacebuilding around the world:
“Between 2008 to 2024, peacekeeping and peacebuilding funding declined by 26 per cent, with peacebuilding falling 39 per cent (from $8.7 billion to $5.3 billion) and peacekeeping down to $5.8 billion”
As a result, “Despite a nearly unchanged number of missions over the past two decades (60 in 2008 vs 61 in 2024), the number of deployed peacekeeping personnel has halved – from 187,586 to 94,451 – largely due to funding shortfalls.”
Meanwhile the same institute estimates in its 2025 Global Peace Index that “The economic impact of violence is now US$19.97 trillion, or 11.6 per cent of global GDP, driven by rising military spending and conflict-related losses.”
In 2026, those costs are going to be way higher because of the enormous damage already being done to energy infrastructure in the Gulf and to global trade flows.
So part of the ordering solution needs to be spreading an understanding that cutting the funds for peacekeeping, peacebuilding and conflict prevention is quite literally a false economy.
This case is powerfully made in a great new article from NYU’s Centre on International Cooperation:
Few news headlines describe when a city’s homicide rate falls quietly over a decade, when a community at risk never quite tips into gang recruitment, when a potential terrorist is redirected by a counsellor rather than arrested by a counter-terrorism unit, or when a conflict is narrowly averted. Successful prevention is often invisible. And that is why it often keeps losing to the politics of urgency.”
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The Iran war rages on, oil prices continues to surge, and inflation spikes. When will we be in a global recession? Do we see stagflation coming back? Can military action open and secure the Strait of Hormuz? Or is that also a Chimera? Are the Disorderers doing this all on purpose do they benefit from all this Disorder?This week, Jason Pack and Mark Lobel discuss the big picture economic problems of the Iran war, including: America’s doomed insurance and military proposals to get oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, the collosal impact of continued closure on the global economy; the situation on America’s and Britain’s relationships with their Gulf allies; what rising oil prices and swelling Russian coffers means for Russia’s war on Ukraine; why China could be a surprise Orderer in this (if they chose to play the part); Starmer’s triangulating response to this crisis; and – as they Order the Disorder – the role Britain and Europe could play in mediating this conflict.To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/Producer: George McDonaghSubscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShowShow Notes Links:Listen: OIES Podcast – The US-Israeli War with Iran: Continuing Impacts on Oil Markets https://open.spotify.com/episode/2kLZsWi4x8d6LU7d1le91J?si=0tVfxYmdRRS7QYx7GhZNbQ&ct=1&t=1 Nations Respond With Caution to Trump’s Call to Send Warships to Strait of Hormuz: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/world/middleeast/trump-strait-of-hormuz-iran-warships.html Is Trump having another Taj Mahal moment on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/V6HTwiNG_CkTo join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Well, the quagmire has set in. The Iran war is in its second week and Oil Prices are above $100 a barrel and even though it was clear from the first shots being fired it is now manifest that Trump has no strategy. And his ability to act with impunity shows that constraining leaders to act with strategy rather than just opportunism is a key aspect of democracy and accountability.
We are trying to focus on solutions, to see what is working in Britain, and to chat through various amorphous topics, such as: ‘What is Strategy?’ and why does democracy have a communications problem.
In 2011, statistics show that 11 democracies suffered backsliding into autocracy. Today: that number is in the mid-40s. With Trump’s America at the peak of that shift, what can be done to reverse that trend? And better yet, what can be done to protect all democracies going forward? Can institutions be made in advance that could protect democratic backsliding before it happens?!?
To build on our recent episode with Graham Zellick on how democracy is protected in the UK, Jason is joined by Richard Symons. Richard is the founder of Compass & Co —a UK-based strategy and communications firm helping leaders with policy, corporate strategy, and clear messaging in complex environments.
They discuss the pressing issue of democratic backsliding, what it means, what causes it, some innovative solutions being proposed, including in Wales, and as they Order the Disorder, they look at the need for a ‘right to facts’ type law, and why bold leadership is needed to maintain democracy.
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/
Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
For more on compass and Co https://www.compass-strat.com/
Read: The Revenge of Power: How Autocrats Are Reinventing Politics for the 21st Century - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Revenge-Power-Autocrats-Reinventing-Politics/dp/B096WDF625/
Read: Has Wales found the solution to Autocracy? https://justhinkin.substack.com/p/has-wales-found-the-solution-to-autocracy?r=3cs2wr
Read: What's Really Driving America to In’soul'vency? https://justhinkin.substack.com/p/whos-driving-the-insoulvency?r=3cs2wr
Listen to our episode with Sir Geoff Mulgan to hear more about his Right to Truth idea: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/Y2Y1ZTFhOTAtZjJjNC0xMWYwLTljMTMtYzc5MjBhZmIxYTU0
Listen to our episode with Elie Honig where similar issues are addressed in the US context and how the powerful are held to account via the Special Prosecutor system: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/NmU0ZGIzZTQtYjhhMS0xMWYwLTk0NWQtZWZlN2MwMWI1YWJm
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It is a crazy week for the Middle East and the World. For those wanting the Iran War content mentioned at the episode start where Jason appeared on three different podcasts addressing various aspects of the conflict (its congressional illegality; the parallels with the No Fly Zone over Libya; and the Epstein distraction aspects) please consult those links in the shownotes, we think those podcasts are awesome.
But back to the matter at hand, Trump certainly knows how to dominate the news cycle but mostly he does so via means that illegal and impeachable in the United States. Why then are the powerful able to be held to account in the UK (e.g. Lord Mandelson and former Prince Andrew) but not in the USA?
No one is above the law in Britain. TRULY. Not the Lords, not the Princes of the realm. And Parliamentarians don’t decide who is prosecuted and the Government can’t protect its friends. And this analysis isn’t BS. It is literally vouched for by the people who have designed and operated the current legal system.
With the arrest of Lord Mandelson and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Britons can TRULY say that their legal system does actually seriously investigate powerful people who have done something wrong and that the system is beyond partisan influence.
What makes the British legal system work? And what are its vulnerabilities? Is it more fragile than we realise?
Today, Jason Pack is joined by Professor Graham Zellick, a distinguished public and constitutional lawyer, university leader and judge, to explore the UK’s rather remarkable constitution (or lack of). They look at the independence of bodies like the Crown Prosecution Service; how and why they are beyond political interference; and whether they need to be protected from a potential future Neo-populist leader. And as they Order the Disorder, they debate whether these bodies need to be strengthened yet further, or if Farage or an equivalent could dismantle them as quickly as Trump has done in the US. They explain that Britian has built into its ‘constitution’ a lot of the solutions already and that there is actually much that can be learned from it on the world stage.
To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/
Producer: George McDonagh
Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow
Show Notes Links:
Iran content as discussed in the intro to the episode:
Why the Iran war is congressionally illegal ‘Jason Pack debating Trump’s NSC Exec Dir on BBC 5 Live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ0rg-Dmw5M
But What if Iran Disintegrates Into Chaos? Great Espionage, Where's the Wisdom Now?
Jason Pack on the Mossad Files with Dan Raviv https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/but-what-if-iran-disintegrates-into-chaos-great-espionage/id1796257169?i=1000753187080
The 2011 Libya No Fly Zone is the correct analogy for the 2026 aerial war against Iran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIbfFKJYLOo
#50 - Epstein, Iran, and Who Benefits When the World Burns Jason on Regilio v Everything. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/50-epstein-iran-and-who-benefits-when-the-world-burns/id1834972973?i=1000752957478
For more on Graham visit https://www.academicspeakersbureau.com/speakers/graham-zellick
Listen to our episode with Elie Honig where similar issues are addressed in the US context and how the powerful are held to account via the Special Prosecutor system: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/NmU0ZGIzZTQtYjhhMS0xMWYwLTk0NWQtZWZlN2MwMWI1YWJm
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/world/europe/iran-london-spying-arrest-jewish-community.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
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