Episodes
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In this episode of The Trade Guys, Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch tackle two big stories: what came out of the latest U.S.-China trade talks, and what’s happening with the North American Free Trade Agreement. On the U.S.-China trade dialogue, the Trade Guys deconstruct what it means to halt a trade war. They also discuss what exactly the president meant when he tweeted that on China, barriers and tariffs are to “come down for the first time.” On NAFTA, the Trade Guys explain why the administration might be falling behind schedule to renegotiate the deal. They also give you the skinny on an alternative that some members of Congress are proposing. Hosted by H. Andrew Schwartz and produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
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As Venezuela endures an upcoming presidential election on May 20th, widely seen as illegitimate, the U.S. and other like-minded countries are considering further sanctions on the Maduro regime. In a joint production of the Financial Integrity Network and CSIS, Juan Zarate sits down with Moises Rendon, Jose Luis Stein, and David Murray to discuss the effectiveness of sanctions on Venezuela and the opportunities ahead.
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In this episode of The Trade Guys, Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch talk about what’s going on between the Trump administration and the Chinese telecom company, ZTE. President Trump surprised many with a tweet saying he was working to get ZTE back into business, despite having penalized the company earlier this year. The Trade Guys also chat about whether and how the ZTE curveball might affect the next round of trade talks with the Chinese. Hosted by H. Andrew Schwartz and produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
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Please join the Freeman Chair in China Studies for a discussion of the credit risks in China. At the December 2017 Central Economic Work Conference, Chinese policymakers decided that China would focus on fighting three critical battles to achieve high quality development in the next three years, among them curbing financial risks. This event features experts who will offer their assessments on China’s credit risks and discuss why defusing these risks is critical to China’s future growth. Andrew Polk, founding partner of Trivium/China, a Beijing-based advisory firm, and Gene Ma, Chief China Economist at the Institute of International Finance, will discuss the origins of China’s debt problem, the challenges Beijing faces in deleveraging the economy, and the effectiveness of its recent policies. Christopher K. Johnson, Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, will moderate the discussion.
The China Reality Check Series presents perspectives from academia, industry, and government in order to promote a sustained dialogue on critical and insufficiently understood issues related to China's reemergence as a global power.
The China Reality Check Series is made possible through the generous support of the Duquesne Family Foundation and the Kaye Family Foundation.
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The United States and China are approaching the 40th anniversary of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations. To commemorate this historic milestone, CSIS is hosting a half-day event on the morning of May 11, 2018, to discuss the twists and turns in the relationship over the last four decades and the challenges that lay ahead. The conference will feature key policy figures and experts from both the United States and China. We will begin with a keynote address from a current member of Congress, then have two star-studded panels discussing “The First 40 Years” and “The Next 40 Years,” and then wrap up with a luncheon armchair discussion featuring former Secretary of Defense William Cohen and Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai.
8:30-9:15 Introductory Remarks
Keynote Speech
John Hamre, President, CSIS
Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK)
9:25-10:40 Panel 1: The First Forty
Panelists:Mr. James Mann, Scholar-in-Residence, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Amb. Charlene Barshefsky, Partner, WilmerHaleDr. Suisheng (Sam) Zhao, Director, Center for China-U.S. Cooperation, University of DenverDr. Wang (Henry) Huiyao, President, Center for China and GlobalizationModerator: Dr. Scott Kennedy, Deputy Director, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS
10:50-12:00 Panel 2: The Next Forty
Panelists:Mr. Daniel H. Rosen, Partner, The Rhodium Group(RHG) Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, Assistant Professor, Georgetown University, Jeane Kirkpatrick Scholar, AEIDr. Chen Dongxiao, President, Shanghai Institutes for International StudiesMr. Wang Wen, Executive Dean, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of ChinaModerator: Ms. Bonnie S. Glaser, Senior Adviser for Asia & Director, China Power Project, CSIS
12:00-1:30 Luncheon & Armchair Discussion: US-China Relations at a Crossroad
Panelists:Sec. William S. Cohen, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, The Cohen Group
Amb. Cui Tiankai, Chinese Ambassador to the United StatesModerator: Mr. Christopher K. Johnson, Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS
This event is made possible through general support to CSIS.
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Please join us for a rich half-day discussion on the geostrategic and geo-economic future of the Arctic. In a moderated “exit interview,” the Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, Admiral Paul F. Zukunft, will discuss his active public advocacy for and interagency pursuit of securing greater U.S. capabilities and readiness for a rapidly changing Arctic, as well as offer some thoughts on the overall trajectory of the Coast Guard’s future mission in the polar regions. Subsequent panels will closely examine Russia’s future economic and security ambitions in the Arctic as well as address the key drivers of future economic growth and the forces that are shaping these new economic dynamics.
Agenda
8:15 a.m. - Registration and Coffee
8:45 a.m. - Keynote Address: The Exit Interview
Admiral Paul F. Zukunft, Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard
9:15 a.m. - Panel I: The Arctic Superpower: Factors Shaping Russia's Arctic Policy
Dr. Marlene Laruelle, Research Professor of International Affairs, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
Dr. Julie Wilhelmsen, Senior Research Fellow, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI)
Dr. Pavel K. Baev, Research Professor, the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Moderated by: Ms. Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; Director, Stuart Center, CSIS
10:30 a.m. - Coffee Break
10:45 a.m. - Panel II: The Polar Silk Road, the Blue Economy, and Other Arctic Drivers
Dr. Jakub M. Godzimirski, Research Professor, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI)
Dr. Anne-Marie Brady, Professor, University of Canterbury (via VTC)
Mr. Tero Vauraste, President and CEO, Arctia Ltd.; Chair, Arctic Economic Council
Ms. Kristina Wolston, Vice President, External Relations, Quintillion
Moderated by: Ms. Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; Director, Stuart Center, CSIS
12:00 p.m. - Event Concludes
This conversation is made possible by support from The Research Council of Norway.
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Four years after the U.S. and EU first imposed sanctions against Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea in March 2014, how effective have these sanctions been in changing the regime’s behavior?
In 2014, Russia experienced a deep recession as global energy prices precipitously dropped. But in 2018, the World Bank projects that Russia will experience GDP growth of around 1.7 percent and the Central Bank of Russia has effectively managed price stability. However, Russia is having to make painful budget choices and turning increasingly to China for infrastructure financing.
As Russia continues its military interventions in Eastern Ukraine and Syria, its malign influence operations across Europe and in the United States, and recently deployed a chemical weapon on NATO territory, it appears that four years of Western sanctions has not altered Russian behavior in its neighborhood and beyond. If anything, Russia has used Western sanctions as a domestic policy tool to nationalize industries while retaining access to the Western financial system. This half-day event will explore the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia and their impact on Russian foreign and security policy.
Please join the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy and the Europe Program on the afternoon of Monday, May 7 for two expert panel discussions exploring the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and its foreign policy, followed by keynote remarks by Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD).
Moderated by:
This event is part of the Simon Chair's Economic Statecraft Speaker Series, a forum to highlight the strategic role of economics in foreign policy and to explore the making of international economic policy. It is made possible by the generous support of Arconic Foundation.
AGENDA
12:30pm Lunch Served
1:00pm Panel One: Sanctions and the Russian Economy
Sergey Aleksashenko
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Brookings and Former Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia
Elizabeth Rosenberg
Senior Fellow and Director, Energy, Economics and Security Program, Center for a New American Security
David Murray
Former Director of the Office of Illicit Finance, Treasury Department
Matthew P. Goodman
U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, Department of State
Ambassador Kurt Volker
Panel Two: Sanctions and Russian Foreign Policy2:30pm
William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy and Senior Adviser for Asian Economics, CSIS
Olga Oliker
Heather A. Conley
Moderated by:
Senior Adviser and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD)
Keynote Speech3:45pm
CSIS
Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
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In this episode, we assess the decline of democratic governance, human rights, and rule of law in several Southeast Asian countries ahead of key elections in 2018 and 2019. CSIS Southeast Asia Program Deputy Director Brian Harding joins the pod to analyze the machinations surrounding elections in Malaysia on May 9 and provide a sitrep on the state of possible elections and space for civil society in Thailand and Cambodia, as well as current trends in Vietnam and the Philippines. Brian also shares insight on what Indonesia and Singapore are doing right as bright spots for democracy in the region and argues that the United States should continue to engage and assist the region on governance, rule of law, and human rights.
Hosted by Elizabeth Keller. Audio edited by Ribka Gemilangsari. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean.
To learn more:
“Malaysia Goes to the Polls on May 9,” CSIS Critical Questions by Amy Searight & Brian Harding.
The YouTube performance of the latest pop song that Prime Minister Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha of Thailand wrote (in Thai) is here.
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Please join the Freeman Chair in China Studies for a discussion of poverty alleviation in China. At the December 2017 Central Economic Work Conference, Chinese policymakers decided that China would focus on fighting three tough battles to achieve high quality development in the next three years, among them reducing rural and urban poverty. This event features experts who will discuss the political, economic, and social aspects of addressing poverty. Georgetown University Professor Kristen Looney, Lead Economist for the World Bank's Development Research Group John Giles, and Director of the Grassroots Initiative at Johns Hopkins SAIS Anne Thurston will discuss China's trends in poverty and economic development, policy implementation for poverty alleviation, the demographic challenges to China's development, and the roles of NGOs in China's community development. Scott Kennedy, Deputy Director of the Freeman Chair in China Studies, will moderate the discussion.
The China Reality Check Series presents perspectives from academia, industry, and government in order to promote a sustained dialogue on critical and insufficiently understood issues related to China's reemergence as a global power.
The China Reality Check Series is made possible through the generous support of the Duquesne Family Foundation and the Kaye Family Foundation. -
In this inaugural episode of The Trade Guys, Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch talk about a trade deal that’s made headlines: The Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP. They discuss what to make of the President’s recent announcement that the U.S. might rejoin the deal—even though he pulled out of it on his third day in office. What will it take for the U.S. to rejoin? Can it even do that? How are the other signatories proceeding? Hosted by H. Andrew Schwartz and produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
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Please join us for an exchange with Japanese thought leaders on the security policy debate in Nagatacho (a district in central Tokyo where the national parliament, or Diet, is located) and priorities for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Please register only if you are attending in person.
This event is made possible by the generous support of CSIS.
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Senator Warner's keynote begins at 1:22:20.
When G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors met last month in Argentina, they highlighted the “immense economic opportunities” provided by transformative technologies. They also acknowledged, however, the attendant challenges, including changes to labor markets, the importance of adequate skills training, and the risk of increased inequality. Technological change, like globalization, will transform the future of work and education, underscoring the need to prepare labor markets and labor forces for future disruptions. While the benefits from trade and technology are tangible, so are the disruptions they produce. These changes are “equal opportunity” in the sense that workers across all sectors and skill levels will be affected, requiring policymakers to develop appropriate responses.
Please join the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy and the Project for Prosperity and Development on the morning of Friday, April 20 for an expert panel discussion exploring opportunities and challenges facing public and private sector participants as they consider the future economy, followed by keynote remarks by Senator Mark Warner (D-VA).
This event is made possible by support from the Royal Embassy of Denmark.
Welcome and Introduction9:00am
AGENDA
9:05am Panel Discussion
Kristian Jensen
Minister for Finance of Denmark
Bruce Reed
Co-Chair, Future of Work Initiative, Aspen Institute
Susan Lund
Partner, McKinsey & Company and McKinsey Global Institute
E. Wayne Holden
President and Chief Executive Officer, RTI International
Moderated by:
Stephanie Segal
Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS
10:30am Keynote Speech
Senator Mark Warner (D-VA)
Introduced by:
John Hamre
President and CEO, CSIS
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Almost all of the Western Hemisphere’s leaders recently ascended to the Summit of the Americas in Lima, Peru. What did they accomplish? Ana Quintana, senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation, assesses the Summit’s output, especially on Venezuela. She comments on the participation of VP Pence instead of President Trump, and the Administration’s quirky relationship with Mexico, but declines Richard’s invitation to place a bet in the NAFTA casino. And TPP? Forget it.
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This episode focuses on the proposed changes to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States’ (CFIUS) review process and what that might mean for Chinese investment in the United States. Our guest, Mario Mancuso, joins us to discuss how CFIUS generally evaluates the national security risk profile of an investment. He also analyzes how Chinese transactions may be perceived against the backdrop of intensifying strategic competition between the two countries.
, which aims to help buyers, sellers, and other interested parties think through the CFIUS review process.of A Dealmaker’s Guide to CFIUSMr. Mario Mancuso is a Partner at Kirkland & Ellis LLP where he leads the firm’s International Trade and National Security practice. Mr. Mancuso has formerly served as the Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security and is the author
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In this episode, we analyze the origin and impact of a Sino-American trade war. As the trading relationship between Washington and Beijing spirals into conflict and protectionism, we are joined by two CSIS experts, Matthew Goodman, Simon Chair in Political Economy, and William Reinsch, Scholl Chair in International Business, to discuss what a trade war actually is, the impact of President Trump’s Section 232 tariffs, the types of tools China and the U.S. can use in this fight, and potential constraints on escalation. Matt and Bill also explain where this leaves the multilateral institutions that govern trade and project the likelihood of miscalculation on either side.
Then Dr. Scott Kennedy, director of the Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy at the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, bats cleanup to assess Section 301 penalties that President Trump has imposed, countermeasures from the Chinese leadership, and whether the U.S. and China are truly ready for a full-on trade conflict. Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Ribka Gemilangsari. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean.
To learn more, please see analysis from our experts:
A Better Way to Challenge China on Trade | Foreign Affairs by Matthew Goodman & Ely Ratner here.
Section 301, Tariffs, and Chinese Trade and Investment | CSIS by Stephanie Segal & William Reinsch here.
Surviving March Madness in U.S.-China Trade Relations | CSIS by Scott Kennedy here.
Is the U.S. Ready for a Trade War? | Yale Global by Scott Kennedy here.
The Shifting Politics of Trade | CSIS by William Reinsch here.
Finding the Right Off-ramp from the Trade War | CSIS by Claire Reade here.
To read the details of President Trump’s announcements on U.S. trade policy see Section 232 here, Section 301 here.
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This is a raw video feed. Event begins at 24:30. Edited video will be posted shortly.For 88 years, Section 337 of the Tariff Act of 1930 has been a powerful trade tool to enforce intellectual property rights in the United States and protect the U.S. market from improper foreign imports. Marking 30 years since it was last significantly amended, the CSIS Scholl Chair releases its report analyzing Section 337, its evolution to a tool for protecting intellectual property, and future expectations for the law and its implementing body, the International Trade Commission. Join us for this discussion hosted by William A. Reinsch, Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business. The featured keynote will be Tom Schaumberg, along with panelists Deanna Okun, David Long, and Ben Levi.
This event is brought to you by the generous support of Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP -
The abrupt end of the Tillerson era may signal changes for US policy towards Latin America. Eric Farnsworth, Vice President of the Council of the Americas, explains the inner workings of the Trump Administration’s views on NAFTA, Venezuela, and the Mexican elections. He also ponders the question of China’s increasingly assertive role in the hemisphere, and whether Mike Pompeo will take a more strategic view of the region than the President. Sarah “Be Happy” Baumunk explains why Latin Americans are relatively happier than the rest of the world, according to the UN Happiness Index.
Guest: Eric Farnsworth
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Additive manufacturing (AM), also known as "3D printing," is a fast-growing technology that is transforming production in a wide range of applications. The United States is a leader in additive manufacturing research and production, which could bring significant future benefits to U.S. firms and consumers. Join the Scholl Chair and report author Scott Miller to understand what policymakers should know about AM.This event is made possible through the generous support of the Arconic Foundation.
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Please join us on Tuesday, March 13 for a conversation with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the leader of Greece’s center-right opposition New Democracy Party. As Greece emerges from eight years of being under the restrictions of three bailout packages, continues to confront a migration crisis, becomes an important logistics hub for China, addresses growing tensions in Cyprus, and is re-engaging with Skopje to negotiate an agreed name for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Athens is increasingly becoming a critical actor in the Eastern Mediterranean region. As opposition leader, Mr. Mitsotakis will share his insights on the most critical issues facing Greece today, the importance of the U.S.-Greek bilateral partnership and transatlantic relationship to bring greater stability to the region, and the future prospects for Greek parliamentary elections.
This event is made possible by general support to CSIS. - Show more
