Episodes
-
US equities were mixed this week though the Nasdaq posted a fifth-straight weekly gain while the S&P 500 finished fractionally higher for a fifth-straight gain. Data also skewed positive this week, including May flash manufacturing and services PMIs both ahead of consensus, including flash composite PMI the highest in two years. Nvidia earnings were the highlight of this week's batch of results.
-
US equities ended down Thursday, near session lows. Market mood is negative today, with solid economic data contributing to the good-news-is-bad-news dynamic and adding some more support to the higher-for-longer Fed narrative. However, major market indices are getting some support from Nvidia’s NVDA beat and raise against a high bar.
-
Missing episodes?
-
US equities ended lower Wednesday, not far from their worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 51bps, 27bps, and 18bps respectively. May FOMC minutes discussed "disappointing" data not boosting policymakers' confidence and that disinflation was likely to take longer than previously thought. April existing home sales missed, though March sales revised higher and inventory dynamics continued to improve. Goldman CEO Solomon said he doesn't see Fed cutting rates this year. nVidia beat on earnings and guidance, raised its dividend and announced a stock split.
-
US equities ended mostly higher and near session highs in uneventful Tuesday trading. No big directional drivers in play coming off a four-week rally driven by soft-landing narrative traction. Quiet on the macro front aside from the flurry of Fedspeak and Fed officials not really saying anything new with next key inflation data point still a few weeks away.
-
US equities ended mostly higher Monday in a fairly quiet, rangebound session. No meaningful impact from Middle East developments, but the market is still closely monitoring the news. Nothing on the economic calendar today, though it’s been a busy day in Fedspeak.
-
US equities were modestly higher this week, with major indices logging their fourth consecutive week of gains. It was a week of renewed momentum for some meme stocks, including GME +27.2%. April core CPI was in line with the headline a bit softer than expected. It was a lighter week for Q1 earnings, with only seven S&P constituents reporting. Overall, the season continues to come in better than expected.
-
Stocks had a largely uneventful trading session and lost some early-morning strength as the day evolved. Soft-landing narrative traction is the big tailwind for risk sentiment as of late. Another busy day for both economic data and Fedspeak.
-
US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 88bps, 117bps, and 140bps respectively. The S&P 500 set a new record close for the first time since 28th of March. Headline CPI a bit cooler than expected in April while core CPI was in line with consensus. Retail sales came in below expectations, while April’s NAHB homebuilder sentiment saw a greater-than-expected drop. Fed’s Kashkari said it would be prudent to sit a while and figure out where inflation is headed.
-
US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. The Market's path of least resistance seems to be remaining higher, with investors largely shaking off a hotter headline PPI (with likely some reprieve from limited spillover to PCE and negative revisions). There was nothing particularly incremental from Fed Chair Powell, who reiterated skepticism about a rate hike as the next policy move.
-
US equities finished mixed in largely uneventful Monday trading, spending much of the session near the unchanged mark. Another quiet, low volume session before the market exits a catalyst vacuum starting tomorrow with key inflation and consumption data. NY Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations noted consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations rose in April at both the one- and five-year time horizons.
-
US equities ended higher this week and largely in waiting mode ahead of next week's CPI reading. Market navigated a largely catalyst-free trading period this week with depressed volumes as it waits for next week's April CPI reading. There were both bullish and bearish narratives throughout the week. With Friday's nonfarm payrolls report below consensus, this week's claims numbers further alleviated some concerns around the economy heating up rather than cooling.
-
US equities ended higher Thursday, extending the week's upside, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq both on pace for third-straight weekly gains after three-straight weekly declines. The market had a generally constructive tone today, though there is still a lot of anticipation for CPI next week. Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 231K after weeks near 210K, while continuing claims were in line.
-
US equities ended mixed in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing up 44bps, while the S&P500 finished flat and the Nasdaq down 18bps. Fed's Collins said getting to 2% target inflation may take longer than expected. Today's auction of $42B of 10-year notes tailed after yesterday's well-received 3Y auction; with $25B in 30Y bonds coming up for sale tomorrow. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stepped up warning over weak yen's impact on monetary policy.
-
US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday in a fairly uneventful trading session. The Fed's Kashkari said he questions policy restrictiveness given inflation data and was the latest central banker to talk about a higher neutral. Today's auction of $58B of 3Y notes stopped through with help from solid foreign demand.
-
US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending at session highs. Not much behind today's upside with few catalysts, no real change to any of the key themes, and market volumes low. The Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey said slightly more banks tightened C&I loan standards in Q1 and saw weaker C&I, industrial and residential real estate demand quarter over quarter.
-
Stocks were higher as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erased early-week declines off of relatively dovish Fed takeaways and an April payrolls report that added some support to the soft landing theme. Wednesday's May FOMC meeting ended with no change to the policy rate as expected, holding at 5.25-5.50%. Data this week offered some mixed takeaways.
-
US equities finished solidly higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. The simplest excuses for today's more optimistic tone are dovish takeaways from Powell's Fed comments yesterday and the lower-rate backdrop. Q1 productivity undershot expectations while unit labor costs up at a 4.7% SAAR (though up 1.8% across last four quarters).
-
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, with the market selling off into the close, after a big post-Powell boost; Dow Jones finished +23bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 34bps and 33bps respectively. Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, and announced a larger-than-expected reduction in Treasury runoff caps from $60B to $25B, starting in June. ISM manufacturing index missed and moved back into contraction territory. JOLTS job openings came in lower than expected. April ADP private payrolls were ahead of consensus.
-
US equities ended lower Tuesday, near worst levels, with stocks more than erasing Monday's modest gains. Market was on the defensive today after hotter Q1 ECI data sparked a rise in Treasury yields. Growth concerns also in the mix after weakest consumer confidence print since July 2022 and lowest Chicago PMI since November 2022. Earnings a mixed bag ahead of some additional big tech reports over the next couple of days.
-
US equities ended higher Monday, just off best levels, in a mostly uneventful day of trading. The market gave up some strength in the later afternoon after the US Treasury released Q2 borrowing estimates that were marginally higher than the January estimate. Another big earnings week is ahead with 175 S&P 500 companies reporting this week.