Episodios
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Canada's economy is showing increasing signs of strain, with weakening economic data pointing toward a technical recession—and this month's Real Estate Roundtable unpacks what that could mean for the housing market in the months and years ahead.
Joining me are Vancouver realtor Steve Saretsky and Toronto mortgage broker David Larock as we discuss how slowing economic growth, rising unemployment, and softer consumer confidence are impacting housing activity across the country.
We also break down the latest outlook for interest rates and whether weaker economic conditions could push the Bank of Canada toward additional rate cuts. What do falling bond yields and softer inflation data mean for mortgage rates, buyers, and homeowners renewing over the next year?
Finally, we discuss the longer-term outlook for Canadian real estate—and why the next phase of the market may not look like the rapid rebounds Canadians have become accustomed to. Instead of another quick surge higher, are we entering a period of years-long flat home prices as incomes slowly catch up to housing costs?
All that and more in this month's housing market roundtable covering Toronto, Vancouver, and the broader Canadian economy.
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Housing debates today are dominated by one idea: if we just build more homes, prices will fall. But what if that story is incomplete?
In this episode, I sit down with Mike Fellman to unpack his report Fixing Housing Means Fixing Finance and explore why housing affordability is as much a finance problem as it is a supply problem. We break down the limits of traditional economic thinking, why upzoning alone doesn't guarantee more housing, and how the cost of capital—and the returns investors expect—ultimately determine what gets built.
We also connect these ideas to what's happening here in Canada, where programs like CMHC's MLI Select are quietly reshaping the economics of rental housing by lowering borrowing costs and enabling more development. The result is a more nuanced view of the housing crisis—one that challenges the idea that we can simply deregulate our way to affordability.
https://groundworkcollaborative.org/work/fixing-housing-means-fixing-finance-why-we-cant-deregulate-our-way-to-affordability/
Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: [email protected]
Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!
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In this episode, John sits down with Ben Rabidoux of Edge Realty Analytics for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of Canada's economy and housing market. They start with the macro picture — an economy where headline GDP growth masks a struggling private sector, full-time job losses are at their steepest since the pandemic, and an oil-price-driven inflation shock is forcing the Bank of Canada into an impossible position between hiking rates and protecting a weakening economy.
The conversation turns to mounting household financial stress, with consumer insolvencies at levels not seen since 2009, credit card charge-offs at decade highs, and a growing social normalization of mortgage default. In the housing market, Ben makes the case that the single-family segment may be nearing a floor — completions and permits are at multi-decade lows, new listings have peaked, and pent-up demand is building — while the condo market faces a deeper structural reckoning as investor economics remain broken and pre-construction defaults surge. They close with what may be the most counterintuitive story in Canadian housing right now: developers are starting rental units at record levels into a market where rents are already falling, vacancy is rising, and population growth has turned negative — setting up a potential future where single-family prices recover while the rental market continues to deteriorate.
Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: [email protected]
Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!
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In today's live, we're breaking down Toronto's two-sided housing market — where condos and suburban homes are struggling, but some central Toronto neighbourhoods are still seeing fierce bidding wars. We also answered viewer questions and discussed what buyers and sellers need to know right now. We also chatted about Canada's latest job losses, what a weakening labour market could mean for the economy, and where interest rates may be headed next. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:54 GTA Home Prices 09:12 Market Stats 12:43 On The Ground Questions 33:33 Mortgage Expert - David Larock
Set-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Realosophy to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn
Sign up for our email list to be alerted to the next online market update to join our YouTube session live chat and ask your own Qs: https://www.movesmartly.com/monthly-public-webinarWe hope you enjoyed this month's update and found it valuable. Thanks for tuning in - we'll see you next month!
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This month's roundtable digs into a shifting housing market narrative—one where the spotlight is quietly moving away from pre-construction condos and toward a surge in multiplex development across Canada. Fueled by highly leveraged, government-backed financing through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation programs like MLI Select, multiplex projects are emerging as the new "pre-con"—offering attractive returns on paper, but carrying real risks if rents, costs, or timelines don't hold. We unpack why this boom is happening now, who's building, and whether this model is sustainable—or just the latest cycle of risk masked by easy credit.
At the same time, cracks are forming beneath the surface. Mortgage arrears are rising across Canada, a signal that higher interest rates and affordability pressures are starting to bite. We connect this trend to broader financial conditions, including rising bond yields, and what that means for borrowers, investors, and housing demand in both Toronto and Vancouver. While home sales remain subdued in both markets, the underlying story is increasingly about financial stress and shifting incentives—not just supply and demand.
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This episode dives into some of the biggest questions buyers and sellers are asking right now—from whether it makes sense to jump into pre-construction with the new HST rebate, to the growing debate over whether that policy is really helping buyers or quietly supporting builders. We unpack the risks of trying to time the market in an uncertain economic environment, and how to think about pricing, incentives, and long-term value when conditions are shifting.
We also discuss what's actually happening on the ground in today's market, including whether underpricing strategies still work for sellers and how much leverage buyers really have right now. The goal is to cut through the noise and give practical insight into how to navigate a market that feels increasingly unpredictable.
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Toronto's approach to multiplex housing has evolved quickly—from the initial legalization of fourplexes to allowing six units in some areas, along with key changes to development charges, zoning rules, and approvals.
In this episode, we're joined by planner Sean Galbraith to break down what's changed, what's working, and how these policies are playing out on the ground. We discuss the practical impact of recent reforms, the types of projects being built today, and how builders and homeowners are starting to take advantage of new opportunities.
This is a look at how the city is gradually unlocking more low-rise density—and what that means for the future of housing in Toronto. -
In today's live, we unpack why the market is still slower than the headlines suggest and what the HST rebate means for buyers right now. We dig into the HST rebate on new homes and what it actually means for buyers, how it's structured, who's likely to benefit, and why the impact on pricing isn't as straightforward as it sounds. We also look at what it signals for new construction and some key risks buyers should keep in mind before making a move.
Despite the headlines, the market fundamentals remain weak, with sales still running well below normal levels across both houses and condos. Inventory remains elevated compared to historical norms, and prices have continued to ease from recent peaks.
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:07 Market Stats
08:56 HST Rebat
19:25 On The Ground Questions
36:19 Mortgage Expert - David LarockSet-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Realosophy to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn
Sign up for our email list to be alerted to the next online market update to join our YouTube session live chat and ask your own Qs: https://www.movesmartly.com/monthly-public-webinarWe hope you enjoyed this month's update and found it valuable. Thanks for tuning in - we'll see you next month!
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Toronto and Vancouver's housing markets remain notably weak this month, with both cities continuing to see subdued sales and hesitant buyer activity. What stands out isn't just the slowdown itself, but how comfortable many buyers seem staying on the sidelines.
In this month's Real Estate Roundtable, John Pasalis, Steve Saretsky, and David Larock unpack the factors reinforcing that caution. Rising interest rates, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks, are giving buyers plenty of justification to wait. Even those who are financially capable of purchasing are choosing patience, contributing to markets that feel stuck rather than competitive.
We also take a closer look at the federal government's HST cut on new housing and what it actually means in practice. While the policy may support new housing starts at the margins, its more immediate impact could be on developers holding completed but unsold units. The change makes it easier for builders to sell these units to institutional investors at discounted prices, or to rent them out without triggering the same tax consequences they would have faced before.
Overall, the discussion highlights a market that isn't just slow, but structurally constrained, where policy changes may ease pressure for developers without necessarily improving affordability or bringing buyers back into the market in the near term. -
Housing economists say we need more supply. Politicians blame city planners. YIMBYs want less regulation. But the cities we admire most — Barcelona, Paris, Amsterdam — weren't built by getting out of the way. They were built by bold, intentional planning. So what's actually going on? In this conversation, we sit down with Gregg Lintern, former Chief Planner of the City of Toronto and Dean of the Curtner Urban Leadership Program with ULI Toronto, to unpack the housing crisis as a system — not a soundbite.
Gregg walks us through what a Chief Planner actually controls, what he tried to change from the inside with initiatives like EHON, and why blaming any single actor misses the bigger picture. We dig into the real barriers — regulatory, economic, and political — that make it so hard to build the kinds of housing Toronto needs. And we tackle the harder questions: in an era of cautious incrementalism, have we lost the appetite for the kind of transformative planning that shaped the great cities of the world?
Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: [email protected]
Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!
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In this episode, we tackle a few timely questions from listeners trying to make sense of today's housing market. We start with a seller who received a strong offer from buyers willing to purchase without conditions—but with a long closing because they still need to sell their own home. We unpack the real risk in that scenario: what happens if the buyers can't sell in time, and how sellers should think about these types of offers in a slower market.
We also explore how AI is beginning to reshape the real estate industry and what agents should be doing now to stay competitive as things evolve. On the buyer side, we discuss how to approach timing in a market where some homes sit while others attract multiple offers, and whether buyers are finally regaining the ability to include conditions like financing and home inspections—even in competitive situations—and how to know when you can get away with it.Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: [email protected]
Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!
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Ontario's residential construction sector is facing its worst crisis in decades. Pre-construction condo sales have plummeted 89%, single-family home sales are down 71%, and half the municipalities in the GTA and Golden Horseshoe are failing on housing. In this episode, we sit down with Richard Lyall, president of the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON), who has represented the building industry since 1991 and has never seen conditions this bad.
Lyall walks us through the forces behind the collapse — from development charges that have ballooned tenfold in a decade to an approvals process that stretches 90-day timelines past 600 days — and lays out the policy reforms RESCON believes are needed to restart the housing pipeline. We dig into the new GST cut for first-time buyers, the case for rolling back development charges, and what Canada can learn from Germany's approach to building.
Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: [email protected]
Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!
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In this month's YouTube Live, we're unpacking some interesting shifts happening in the Toronto real estate market.
While the overall market remains relatively slow, some Toronto neighbourhoods are seeing noticeably stronger competition. In these pockets, well-priced homes are attracting multiple buyers - a reminder that even in a quieter market, demand can still concentrate in certain areas.
At the same time, activity isn't uniform across the city. Some segments are picking up while others remain fairly soft, highlighting how uneven the market has become.
We also discuss the outlook for interest rates. With global uncertainty increasing and long-term bond yields moving higher, borrowing costs may start trending up again - a shift that could influence buyer confidence and housing demand in the months ahead.
Set-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Realosophy to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn
Sign up for our email list to be alerted to the next online market update to join our YouTube session live chat and ask your own Qs: https://www.movesmartly.com/monthly-public-webinar
We hope you enjoyed this month's update and found it valuable. Thanks for tuning in - we'll see you next month! -
Toronto and Vancouver's housing markets are off to a very slow start in 2026. Sales activity in both cities has come in well below last year's levels as buyers remain cautious amid broader economic uncertainty.
In this month's Real Estate Roundtable, John Pasalis, Steve Saretsky, and David Larock discuss what's keeping buyers on the sidelines and what it might take for confidence to return. One of the biggest questions right now is the outlook for interest rates. While many economists had expected modest rate cuts this year, the war in the Middle East has added a new layer of uncertainty that could complicate the Bank of Canada's path forward.
We also discuss a major policy development on the West Coast: the Musqueam Nation's agreement with the federal government, which could reshape how land is developed in Vancouver and raise important questions about governance, planning, and housing supply.
Finally, we look at how multiplex policies are beginning to influence housing markets in both Vancouver and Toronto. While still early, these changes are starting to affect land values, redevelopment decisions, and the types of housing being built across both cities.
Contact & Follow
Follow John Pasalis on X/Twitter: @JohnPasalis | Email: [email protected]
Follow Steve Saretsky on X/Twitter: @SteveSaretsky | Email: [email protected]
Follow David Larock on X/Twitter: @Dave_at_IMP | Email: [email protected]Watch this episode on the Move Smartly YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy the show, please like, subscribe, share, review, and comment — your support helps us reach more listeners.
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Housing affordability is usually framed as a supply problem or a price problem. But recent academic research suggests something deeper may be happening.
The research finds that when young people begin to believe homeownership is permanently out of reach, their financial behaviour shifts in meaningful ways. Renters who feel shut out are more likely to consume more relative to their wealth, reduce work effort, and take on higher-risk investments. Meanwhile, those who still believe ownership is attainable tend to save more and double down on their efforts.
In this episode, I'm joined by Dr. Preet Banerjee — behavioural finance researcher, Globe and Mail columnist, and founder of YourMoneyDegree.com — to unpack what this means for individuals and for the broader economy.
We explore how housing may be reshaping motivation and long-term planning, whether this "giving up" effect is cultural or universal, and what the appropriate public policy response should be. If homeownership has long served as a near-term, concrete financial goal that anchors behaviour, what happens when that goal disappears for an entire generation?
This conversation goes beyond housing prices. It's about belief in the financial life cycle — and what happens when that belief begins to erode.
Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: [email protected]
Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!
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In this episode of The Situation, John and Peter dive into buying strategy for first-time buyers and how real estate commissions really work. Our first question comes from a first-time buyer wondering whether it's smarter to buy a condo as a stepping stone or stretch for a small house under $1M. John and Peter discuss the pros and cons of each approach and what works best in today's market.
Another listener asks how real estate commissions are calculated and whether a more transparent hourly-plus-expenses model could work. They break down where the money goes and why commission structures are set up the way they are.
Finally, we explore how recent market shifts and economic uncertainty are affecting Toronto homeowners and their decisions. John and Peter share insights on how to think about risk, timing, and long-term strategy.
FollowJohn x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: [email protected] Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly About This Show: The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada. You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support! -
In this month's live update, we break down the latest stats on low-rise homes and condos and what they're really telling us about today's market.
Our team shares what we're seeing on the ground - tight inventory, declining listing quality, rising power of sales activity, and a mix of sellers who've adjusted to current conditions and others still holding onto unrealistic price expectations. We unpack what this means for buyers and sellers navigating the market right now.
Plus, we dive into the Bank of Canada's policy rate, what it means to be in "neutral" territory, and why continued economic slowing and cooling inflation suggest more rate cuts could be on the horizon.
Set-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Realosophy to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn
Sign up for our email list to be alerted to the next online market update to join our YouTube session live chat and ask your own Qs: https://www.movesmartly.com/monthly-public-webinar
We hope you enjoyed this month's update and found it valuable. Thanks for tuning in - we'll see you next month!
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This month's real estate roundtable brings together John Pasalis, Steve Saretsky, and mortgage broker David Larock to break down the latest developments shaping Canada's housing market in early 2026. We begin with the slow start to the year in both Vancouver and Toronto, where home sales are down more than 20% compared to last year. With buyers holding back and inventory building, prices have also begun trending lower across several market segments. We discuss what's driving the slowdown and why economic uncertainty continues to weigh on demand. From there, we explore what it might take for confidence — and buyers — to return in a meaningful way. We also turn to interest rates and the growing divide in forecasts. While the consensus expects modest Bank of Canada cuts by year's end, some economists still warn rates could finish the year higher. We unpack what's behind these competing views and what they mean for buyers and upcoming renewals. Finally, we discuss the sharp slowdown in new condo sales and how it could lead to fewer housing starts and completions in the years ahead. We wrap up with the key indicators we're watching as we head into the spring market, and what they may signal for the rest of 2026. Contact & Follow Follow John Pasalis on X/Twitter: @JohnPasalis | Email: [email protected]
Follow Steve Saretsky on X/Twitter: @SteveSaretsky | Email: [email protected]
Follow David Larock on X/Twitter: @Dave_at_IMP | Email: [email protected] Watch this episode on the Move Smartly YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartlyIf you enjoy the show, please like, subscribe, share, review, and comment — your support helps us reach more listeners.
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What happens when a government openly acknowledges that its tax system is favouring landlords over ordinary households — and then actually changes it?
In this episode, John Pasalis breaks down new research from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation on the UK's post-2016 tax reforms aimed at curbing buy-to-let investor demand. The findings suggest these policies meaningfully shifted the housing market: fewer investor purchases, more homes flowing out of the private rental sector, and significantly more first-time buyers becoming homeowners than would have otherwise.
Drawing on insights from an interview with report author Darren Baxter, John explores why the UK experience challenges the supply-only framework that continues to dominate housing policy in Canada — and why any serious affordability strategy must confront not just how many homes we build, but how housing is financed, who owns it, and whether it remains a lucrative investment vehicle for capital.
Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: [email protected]
Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!
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In this episode, we break down three real housing dilemmas that many households are facing in today's uncertain market.
We start with a common challenge for homeowners looking to move up: how to upsize when you need to sell your current home and buy another at the same time. With slower sales, uncertain prices, and the risk of being forced into a short-term rental, we walk through how families can think about sequencing these two transactions.
Next, we discuss a family-owned Toronto property and the question of adding a garden suite for multigenerational living. We explore how secondary units can affect resale value, buyer demand, and how families can think about fairness when one sibling invests money into a shared property. Finally, we look at a decision facing many small landlords right now: whether to sell a vacant property, rent it short- or mid-term to stay flexible, or lock in a long-term tenant while waiting for better market conditions. We unpack the trade-offs between flexibility, income stability, and risk. Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: [email protected]
Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support! - Mostrar más
