Episodes
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Oil prices surged after fresh tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over global energy supplies, while higher inflation expectations pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on equity markets, where semiconductor stocks led the declines. Investors are now turning their attention to the start of the US earnings season, with major banks reporting results today. Elsewhere, China’s trade data surprised to the upside, Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected, and the UK and Switzerland announced a new trade deal. On today’s show, we are joined by Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, to discuss quantum computing and discover whether or not it has reached its ChatGPT moment.
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Markets are feeling the pressure this Monday morning as rising US-Iran tensions fuel higher oil prices, bond yields and the dollar, while equities drift lower. But with earnings season now taking centre stage, investors are asking a bigger question: can AI leaders and chipmakers justify their stellar gains from the first half of the year? Also in this episode: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes market leadership is unlikely to change despite recent volatility, and why he has upgraded Financials.
(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content(00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content(08:00) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research(10:22) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment ContentWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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With the UK preparing for a new phase of political leadership under the Labour Party's Andy Burnham, investors are watching closely for signals that could impact sterling and UK bonds. Despite headline changes at the top, market volatility has remained subdued. What’s behind the calm, and what should investors expect next?
In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Meier, Chief Currency Strategist, and Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to examine the implications of the UK’s political reset for currency and fixed income markets. The discussion covers why sterling has remained resilient despite leadership changes, the lessons learned from past fiscal policy missteps, and the structural factors shaping the UK’s economic outlook. The conversation also explores the drivers of UK gilt yields, the impact of oil prices and inflation expectations, and the outlook for Bank of England policy. Finally, the team discusses positioning in UK bonds, the relative appeal of UK assets, and the case for hedging FX risk.
(00:00) - Introduction (01:17) - Why has sterling remained calm amid political change? (03:19) - Lessons from past fiscal episodes and the risk of a repeat (04:20) - The new prime minister’s room for manoeuvre (06:19) - Structural constraints and economic outlook for the UK (07:25) - Oil prices, inflation pass-through, and UK gilt yields (10:14) - Positioning on the UK yield curve (10:56) - Bank of England policy outlook (13:22) - Implications for sterling versus major currencies (16:35) - Key factors for UK bond investors (20:30) - FX hedging and international investor considerations (21:32) - UK equities in the current environment (23:01) - Closing remarks and legal information
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As peace talks could be back on the table in the Middle East, global equity markets breathed a sigh of relief and investors snapped up tech stocks around the world. The Kospi retreated from bear market territory rallying more than 5%. And Japanese bonds, equities and the currency were boosted by comments from the country’s finance minister that the government wants to encourage its pension funds to invest more in domestic assets. Despite geopolitical risks having returned as a key driver of bond-market performance, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why investors should avoid this temporary market noise, and if necessary, take advantage of higher yield levels – especially in Europe – to ensure appropriate duration exposure within their portfolios.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content(05:18) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research(09:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment ContentWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Market sentiment has weakened as renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices and government bond yields higher. Spain’s benchmark equity index has come under additional pressure following President Trump’s threat to impose trade restrictions on the country. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the latest surge in oil prices, the broader implications for inflation and whether the move reflects a lasting shift in the outlook or merely a temporary disruption.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content(05:43) - Oil rallies on Trump declaration: Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research(10:44) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment ContentWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Sharp semiconductor losses amid AI chip rivalry fears contrast with resilient broader markets, while escalating US-Iran tensions send oil surging 5%, highlighting growing jitters over geopolitics and inflation just as central banks signal rates may stay higher for longer. Investors will now focus on the upcoming earnings season for more guidance. Matthieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his insights on what to expect. And Tim Gagie, Head of PB Sales (Geneva) FX & PM, talks about the British pound amid the political uncertainty in Britain and key levels to watch for gold.
(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content(06:36) - Earnings preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research(10:25) - FX update: Tim Gagie, Head PB Sales (Geneva) – FX and PM(14:37) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
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US equities started the week strongly as AI-related stocks rebounded yesterday and the Dow Jones closed above 53,000 for the first time. Broadcom gained after extending its partnership with Apple, while Microsoft slipped following plans to cut jobs as it reallocates resources towards AI infrastructure. In Europe, most indices were down, although Germany’s DAX bucked the trend and reached a new record high, and EasyJet surged on takeover news. Asian markets today came under pressure, led by South Korea’s Kospi, where a trading halt was triggered when the index fell more than 8%. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the show to talk about El Niño and its potential economic consequences.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content(06:11) - The El Niño effects heading our way: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research(09:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
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Softer inflation data supported sentiment in the eurozone, while in the US, comments by Fed chair Kevin Warsh on inflation and a weaker-than-expected labour market report lifted equities last week. Gold rose and the USD weakened. Brent crude is holding near USD 72 despite OPEC+ announcing an output increase over the weekend. In Asia, attention is on SK Hynix ahead of its USD 29 billion US listing, which could become the largest-ever foreign IPO. SpaceX is also in focus as the expiry of the analyst quiet period is expected to trigger a wave of research reports and price targets. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses, among other topics, why US equity market behaviour may be more reminiscent of 1998 than 2000.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content(00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content(06:37) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research(10:09) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
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As the United States marks 250 years of independence, investors are asking whether its markets can continue to deliver long-term outperformance in the face of elevated valuations and global competition. What are America’s enduring structural advantages, and could we be entering a new investment era?
In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the investability of the US market as it celebrates a major milestone. Together, they examine the historical drivers of US market leadership, from industrialisation to the current wave of artificial intelligence, and consider whether the region’s capitalist foundations and deep capital markets remain intact. The conversation covers the implications of high valuation multiples, the role of innovation cycles, the impact of market concentration, and the risks posed by political and economic shifts. Mark also shares his perspective on what could signal a regime change, and how investors should think about their US exposure in the context of global opportunities.
(00:00) - Introduction(02:01) - US structural advantages: Resources, population, and capitalism (05:17) - Historical cycles: How US leadership translated into market outperformance (06:30) - Innovation today: Artificial intelligence and the speed of change (07:23) - Valuations and earnings: Are US equities too expensive? (08:22) - Market concentration: The Magnificent Seven and broader performance (09:15) - Could US market leadership be ending? Comparing global markets (11:23) - Key risks: Economic inequality and political shifts (13:11) - Are we in a new investment era? Technology, IPOs, and market sentiment (14:01) - What would signal a regime shift? The role of the dollar and interest rates (14:45) - Investment approach: Staying invested for the long term (15:10) - Can US structural advantages support continued outperformance? (17:03) - Closing remarks and legal reminder
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US job growth slowed significantly in June, giving support to our economists’ view that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again this year. This pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, while supporting gold and most equities. US technology and semiconductor stocks fell sharply after reports that Anthropic is looking into developing its own AI chip together with Samsung Electronics. European marketsrose on Brent oil moving towards USD 70 per barrel, reduced rate-hike expectations by the Fed and new German growth measures. Asian equities outperformed, driven by gains in semiconductor stocks and encouraging economic data from China and Japan. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, talks about the USD, gold and his favourite commodity currencies, the AUD and CAD.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content(06:09) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva(10:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment ContentWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Equity markets began the third quarter on a slightly subdued note, with semiconductor stocks coming under particular pressure. In contrast, Meta emerged as one of the standout performers yesterday, with its shares rallying on reports that the company is actively developing a cloud business aimed at selling AI computing power. Fixed income markets remained relatively calm as investors awaited one of the week’s key economic releases: the June US jobs report, due later today. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the potential implications of President Trump’s decision on copper duties and what it could mean for copper prices.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content(06:18) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research(11:03) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment ContentWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Markets closed a volatile quarter with sharply lower oil and gold prices, while AI optimism continued to support equities on both sides of the Atlantic. European stocks posted their strongest quarter in over five years, and US markets remained resilient despite weakness in the ‘Magnificent Seven’. In today’s show, we also discuss easing eurozone inflation, strong US labour market data and key developments across Asia. In addition, our fixed income research analyst Eirini Tsekeridou joins us to explain why bond yields have remained elevated despite falling oil prices, and to discuss the impact of AI on fixed income markets.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content(07:27) - What’s driving bond yields now? Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research(10:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
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After tensions rose again in the Middle East over the weekend, news yesterday that US envoys will travel to Doha for fresh talks with Iran today allowed markets room to rally. The Dow Jones, which now includes Alphabet, ended yesterday’s session above 52,000 for the first time. Asia continued the rally overnight with the Kospi set to exceed a 105% year-to-date performance by the end of its session. Meanwhile, the yen fell to a 40-year low against the US dollar. And, as Europe melts in the midst of the highest June temperatures on record, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to talk about the economic impact of climate change, why ‘sponge’ cities are being developed, and what the implications are for investors.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content(05:06) - Future cities and the heatwave: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research(10:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
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US-Iran tensions eased over the weekend, supporting risk sentiment going into the new week. However, Asian markets are mixed despite South Korea's pledge of major semiconductor investment, as tech sector concerns temper enthusiasm. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team talks about the change in the technical picture of the US dollar, why they do not expect the S&P 500 to fall into correction territory, and the outlook for gold. Meanwhile, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, gives an update on Asian equity markets, including his thoughts on why China’s stock market has been disappointing lately.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content(01:01) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content(06:47) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis Research(09:22) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong(15:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
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With 2026 at its midpoint, investors are navigating an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and shifting growth dynamics across major economies. How are asset allocators responding, and what does this mean for portfolio construction in the months ahead?
In this episode of The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, and Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, to examine the mid-year market outlook from an investor’s perspective. The discussion covers the impact of ongoing conflicts on commodity prices, the evolution of inflation expectations, and why Europe’s growth outlook is finally turning a corner. The conversation also explores the implications for equity and fixed income allocations, the realities of the AI investment boom, and the case for diversifying away from US dollar assets. The episode concludes with a look at private markets, infrastructure, and the enduring role of gold in portfolios.
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There was a mixed picture in financial markets yesterday as persistent US inflation continues to test the Federal Reserve’s patience. European equities climbed to fresh record highs, boosted by healthcare and chip stocks, while US markets diverged, with tech weakness weighing on the Nasdaq. Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets came under pressure, led by sharp declines in Japan and South Korea, while oil volatility continues amid uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. In today’s show, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold and broader currency dynamics.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content(06:17) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva(11:23) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
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Not only did Micron’s fiscal Q3 earnings exceed expectations yesterday, but the company also guided for current-quarter revenue of USD 50 billion, positively surprising analysts and investors and boosting its share price by 16%. The euphoria around the announcement spilled over into other chip names, and Asia’s markets, excluding Hong Kong, all rallied overnight. Oil prices and bond yields have fallen as flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to ramp up, and expectations of rate hikes have receded. Today’s PCE reading in the US might provide more clues. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joined today’s podcast to share his thoughts on gold’s continued dive. He explains why such sharp and swift moves point to flows rather than fundamentals, and shares why he remains constructive longer-term.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content(06:33) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research(12:23) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
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Equity markets are facing renewed pressure as investors question whether AI-driven stocks, particularly semiconductors, can sustain their remarkable rally. All eyes are on Micron, set to report earnings after today’s close in New York, for clues on the sector’s next move. At the same time, the broader economic backdrop remains supportive, with US business activity expanding at its fastest pace in five months. In today’s episode, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his perspective on newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication framework – and what it could mean for markets and investors.
(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content(06:41) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research(11:31) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
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Markets reacted cautiously after the US granted Iran a temporary 60‑day licence to sell oil in USD. Euro area consumer confidence remained weak in June, and pressure on Hermès weighed on luxury stocks. In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation adds to a decade of political instability, but markets stayed calm. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the central bank doesn’t need to react more forcefully to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. In US equities, investors rotated out of large tech stocks into small caps. In Asia, speculation about USD/JPY intervention grew after talks between Japanese and US officials. Regional equities declined. Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to talk about what strong dealmaking says about the healthcare sector.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content(00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content(06:50) - Dealmaking in the healthcare sector: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research(11:28) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
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Progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland helped ease geopolitical concerns. And while positive momentum in Asian tech lifted regional markets, European and US equity futures have started the week on a more cautious footing. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a closer look at the current trend in the S&P 500, shares his view on the ‘Magnificent Seven’, and outlines which segment of the US market he expects to outperform.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content(00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content(06:53) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis(09:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. - Show more
