Episodes
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In May 2026, our co-host Laurent Segalen had the privilege of chairing a high-profile panel hosted by SolarPower Europe at its annual Solar Power Summit in Brussels, one of the leading gatherings for the European solar and energy storage sectors.
In this episode, we bring you highlights from the hour-long conversation, featuring two distinguished industry leaders: Fredrik Andrén Sandberg from RWE and Hanna Kunzmann from EQT. Between them, their organisations oversee more than 10 GW of battery storage projects either in operation or under development, offering a unique perspective on the realities of financing and scaling storage assets.
The discussion addressed one of the most important questions facing the energy transition today: the bankability of battery storage investments. As battery deployment accelerates across Europe and beyond, investors, developers, and policymakers are increasingly focused on understanding the risks and opportunities that will determine the sector's long-term attractiveness.
The conversation examines battery bankability through four interconnected dimensions. First, technology risk: are batteries still exposed to meaningful technological uncertainty, or have the key challenges shifted towards commercial execution? Second, commercial risk: how should investors evaluate revenue models, merchant exposure, and the growing role of hybridisation strategies? Third, regulatory risk: what policy and market-design uncertainties could affect future returns, from evolving capacity mechanisms to unexpected rule changes? Finally, digital risk: how critical are cybersecurity, battery management systems (BMS), and energy management systems (EMS) in safeguarding performance and protecting asset value over the long term?
The session attracted a packed audience in Brussels and has since been widely praised for the quality, depth, and practical insights of the discussion. Whether you are an investor, developer, policymaker, or simply interested in the future of energy storage, this episode offers a valuable window into how some of the industry's leading players assess risk and opportunity in one of the fastest-growing sectors of the energy transition. -
Gerard and Laurent welcome Michel Boutouil, co-founder and CEO of Polarise, a leading European AI infrastructure provider and NVIDIA Cloud Partner based in Berlin. After discussing about what happens outside of a datacenter, it is time to dive inside one.
Polarise is one of the few genuinely European NeoCloud companies — essentially a European counterpart to CoreWeave — specializing in GPU infrastructure for AI inference. Through its partnership with NVIDIA, Polarise designs its datacenters around the GPU rack itself, using liquid cooling from the outset rather than starting with a traditional real estate-first approach. The company has already developed AI factories in Germany, Norway and the UK.
In the conversation, we explore the growing commoditization of large language models and why the real long-term value may lie in AI factories — facilities that are fundamentally different from conventional datacenters. Given Europe’s notoriously long grid-connection timelines, Polarise focuses on refurbishing brownfield sites with under 50MW of grid access instead of pursuing massive gigawatt-scale campuses. It’s a pragmatic “pod” strategy: adapt to the grid’s constraints rather than try to reshape the entire energy system.
We also tackle the thorny issue of digital sovereignty. With the U.S. CLOUD Act allowing U.S. authorities access to data managed by American tech companies, it is fair to ask what hyperscalers are doing with European data — and whether Europe needs its own sovereign AI infrastructure. Polarise has secured €1 billion in backing from Swiss investor SWI Stoneweg Icona, but even that is modest compared with the hyperscalers’ spending power. For comparison, SpaceX has reportedly invested around $40 billion in Colossus 1 and 2 alone.
So, what does the future of the European AI ecosystem look like? Michel’s answer is clear: Europe should not try to outspend China or the United States head-on. Instead, it should play to its strengths — smart execution, agility, flexibility, and the ability to learn quickly from the mistakes being made elsewhere.
“Today’s show is supported by the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt. The BMW Foundation unites leaders across sectors to develop solutions that foster an innovative economy and a future-proof society. A key focus is "Energy Transition & Climate Change," where the Foundation drives "International collaboration to accelerate the energy transition." With rising energy demands from AI and data centres, new partnerships, effective collaboration, and the exchange of science-based solutions and strategies are essential.” -
Missing episodes?
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At the Eurelectric Power Summit 2026 in Helsinki, Laurent had the opportunity to sit down with Catherine MacGregor, CEO of ENGIE and Vice President of Eurelectric, for a wide-ranging discussion on the key issues shaping Europe's energy future.
We began with the themes at the heart of Eurelectric’s agenda this year: security of supply, affordability, competitiveness, and the challenges and opportunities created by the rapid growth of data centres.
One of the most striking insights from our conversation was that Europe does not have an electrification technology problem — it has an electrification coordination problem. This was also the central conclusion of the report Power Couples: Enhancing Industrial Competitiveness through Electrification, launched by Eurelectric and Accenture at Power Summit 2026. The report finds that electrification projects rarely fail because technology is unavailable. Instead, they stall when power economics, grid access, infrastructure delivery, financing structures, and industrial investment timelines are not aligned.
The proposed solution is a new delivery model: “Power Couples”, bringing together industrial players, utilities, technology providers and capital partners to accelerate deployment at scale.
We also reflected on ENGIE’s remarkable transformation under Catherine’s leadership over the past five and a half years. The company’s strategy has been defined by two parallel moves: more than €15 billion of divestments from fossil and legacy assets, alongside concentrated investments in renewables, networks, batteries, and regulated infrastructure — all while maintaining strong financial discipline, with net debt-to-EBITDA around 3.
The results have been impressive. Since 2021, ENGIE has delivered the strongest risk-adjusted equity performance among major European utilities, combining substantial dividend distributions with significant share-price appreciation. With an annualised IRR of roughly 20.5% since January 2021, ENGIE has outperformed the net returns of many leading global infrastructure investors, effectively delivering private-equity-style returns with public-market liquidity.
Our discussion also covered ENGIE’s leadership in power purchase agreements (PPAs), its support for 24/7 Scope 2 accounting, the recent acquisition of UK Power Networks, progress in EV charging infrastructure, and its fully integrated strategy for data centre development.
Finally, we explored ENGIE’s investment plans for the years ahead and the broader structural shift underway across the energy system: the continued transition from molecules to electrons.
Eurelectric Report: Power Couples https://www.eurelectric.org/publications/industrial-electrification-power-couples/ -
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) have made significant progress in recent years. Yet they remain largely top-down institutions shaped by policy priorities. When trillions of dollars in investment decisions are at stake, investors and operators increasingly turn to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) and its team of more than 400 specialists.
Why does BNEF command such trust? BNEF combines Bloomberg’s unparalleled market data capabilities with deep expertise in batteries, solar, electric vehicles, and electrification. Unlike many international agencies, BNEF operates without a political mandate or advocacy agenda. Its bottom-up analysis provides investors with a more practical view of market realities than traditional top-down forecasts.
In this episode, Gerard and Laurent welcome Albert Cheung, CEO of BNEF, to discuss the findings of the New Energy Outlook 2026. The discussion begins with a review of NEO 2020. BNEF was notably accurate in forecasting the "electrons" side of the transition—solar, batteries, and EVs—while overestimating the pace of hydrogen and carbon capture deployment. Even so, its forecasting record remains among the strongest in the industry.
Looking ahead, NEO 2026 projects a rapidly electrifying global energy system. Solar power, batteries, EVs, and heat pumps are reshaping demand while reducing exposure to fossil-fuel price shocks. Oil demand is expected to decline as EV adoption accelerates. Gas demand may continue growing in the near term to support rising electricity consumption, but both oil and gas fall sharply under stronger net-zero pathways.
By 2032, solar is projected to become the world's largest source of electricity. Battery storage will scale rapidly, enabling more flexible and resilient power systems.
The report also makes clear that, despite substantial progress—especially in China—current technologies and policies are still insufficient to fully achieve global net-zero goals. However, the gap between ambition and reality is narrowing thanks to energy security concerns, declining costs, and continued technological progress.
Overall, it was a thoughtful, insightful, and hopeful conversation. The energy transition is advancing. We are getting there.
Resources New Energy Outlook 2026:
https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/new-energy-outlook/
BNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026:
https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/electric-vehicle-outlook/ -
Gerard and Laurent have the pleasure of welcoming Fintan Slye, CEO of NESO — Great Britain’s National Energy System Operator.
In a lively and wide-ranging discussion, we explored NESO’s governance and its critical role across the British energy system: from real-time system operation — balancing supply and demand every second — to whole-system planning, market design, and transmission network operation.
We covered an extraordinary breadth of topics: balancing costs, electricity prices for consumers, energy security, and the challenge of delivering Power 2030 in a system increasingly reliant on renewables. We discussed batteries, the evolution of balancing markets, the explosive growth of datacenters, and the ever-growing grid connection queue — and, above all, how to keep the entire system stable and efficient through this transformation.
One of the most fascinating parts of the conversation focused on datacenters. NESO is currently facing more than 100GW of connection requests, while Fintan estimates that only 8–12GW are likely to materialise. He shared the three key criteria NESO uses to prioritise and filter applications — a crucial issue as electricity demand enters a new era.
Fintan is also a strong advocate for interconnectors. We discussed the strategic value of the current fleet and the long-term vision for expanding connections through the North Sea Islands and potentially even towards Canada.
Throughout the conversation, one message came across clearly: there is a highly competent team at the helm of the GB energy system, and the grid will continue to improve through investment, innovation, and digitisation.
Fintan embodies the calm confidence you want from the person helping run one of the most complex energy systems in the world. The ultimate “cool” operator.
NESO operates today’s electricity system and designs tomorrow’s energy system to deliver reliable, clean and affordable energy for Great Britain. Find out more here: https://www.neso.energy/ -
The global auto industry is splitting into two very different worlds — what legendary auto expert Michael Dunne calls “a tale of two countries.” Dunne, CEO of Dunne Insights LLC, has spent decades at the centre of the industry, including leadership roles as President of General Motors Indonesia and Managing Director of JD Power China.
On one side stands the United States, increasingly resembling a modern-day Cuba: a market dominated by oversized, fuel-hungry SUVs aimed at a shrinking audience, while legacy automakers squeeze the last profits from internal combustion engines. Last year alone, Detroit’s Big Three wrote off more than $50 billion in EV investments.
On the other side is China, moving at extraordinary speed and scale. The recent Beijing Auto Show showcased the country’s relentless innovation: 38 hectares of exhibition space — roughly 50 football fields — featuring 1,451 vehicles, including 181 world debuts, and attracting 1.3 million visitors, with only 65,000 coming from overseas. It is no longer just about BYD. Chinese giants such as Geely, SAIC, and FAW have caught up rapidly, transforming China into a market where internal combustion vehicles already feel like an afterthought.
Only two foreign automakers still command real respect in China: Toyota and Tesla. Others — including Honda, Nissan, and most European manufacturers — are steadily losing ground.
Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world is accelerating toward electrification as rising oil prices reshape consumer behaviour. Countries such as Thailand, the Philippines, Ethiopia, and Mexico are embracing EVs, while electric vehicle sales continue to surge across Europe.
Battery technology is still advancing, but the next decisive battleground is autonomy. Here, the United States maintains a lead through companies like Waymo and Tesla — though Chinese competitors are closing the gap quickly. 2026 may also mark the tipping point for electric trucks becoming mainstream, with adoption expected to accelerate rapidly once scale economics take hold.
So how can non-Chinese automakers compete? Not through protectionism, but by learning from China’s playbook: moving faster, investing more aggressively in next-generation technologies, and, in some cases, partnering directly with Chinese firms.
Yet another major challenge looms over the industry: excess manufacturing capacity. Factories in both Europe and China are currently operating at only around 50% utilisation, with the United States performing only slightly better.
Dunne’s upcoming book, Car Wars, due out next year, explores this seismic shift in detail. It tells the story of how China built the world’s most powerful EV ecosystem — and whether Western automakers can survive the collision. -
The BESS market is growing at a phenomenal pace. You would think battery management is becoming easier. The reality? It is becoming increasingly complex.
Between data risks, a growing number of suppliers, vertically disintegrated component chains, and constantly evolving software stacks, investors can quickly lose control of their battery fleets.
Only a handful of companies truly operate in the fast-maturing field of battery analytics. And we are not talking about market optimisation focused on financial returns, but deep predictive analytics: understanding what happens inside the system itself, with expertise in battery health, performance, and safety.
Laurent and Gerard have the privilege of welcoming Stephan Rohr, CEO of TWAICE, one of Germany’s leading battery analytics companies.TWAICE has become a major player in recent years: more than 100 employees, including battery scientists, chemists, software engineers, and data scientists, with operations across Europe, the US, and Asia.
The company has raised over €60m in equity from leading investors including Energize, Coatue, and Creandum (early investor in Spotify), alongside €25m in debt financing from the EIB.
With Stephan, we explored the new complexity of battery fleet management — all the way down to the individual cell. Why BESS is a completely different beast from solar? Why is the excellence in operations becoming the real competitive edge? How to address hardware and software sovereignty challenges? And ultimately, the 20-year question: these assets will remain on the grid for decades. You need to build the operational infrastructure for that reality today — not patch it together later.
A highly informative — and delightfully geeky — conversation about managing battery fleet complexity. -
Where is Climate Tech heading? Certainly not dead — but constantly reinventing itself. So much so that you begin to wonder whether the label itself has outlived its original meaning.
Laurent and Gerard welcome Kim Zou, co-founder and CEO of Sightline Climate, the data and research platform mapping the climate-tech economy, and author of some of the sector’s most influential newsletters, including CTVC and the newer Powerstack. Sightline has become essential reading for investors, utilities, corporates, and policymakers trying to understand where capital is flowing and how the energy system is evolving.
Together, they explore how Climate Tech has transformed over the past decade. Decarbonisation alone is no longer the central narrative. Today, AI, energy security, and industrial resilience dominate the conversation — often pushing sustainability itself into the background.
The discussion traces how funding has shifted from venture capital toward infrastructure and large-scale project finance. The spotlight has also moved away from “green molecules” — hydrogen, SAF, and carbon management — toward “green electrons”: virtual power plants, grid-enhancing technologies, and the race to accelerate datacentre construction.
They also examine the contrasting innovation models shaping global competition. In China, much of the breakthrough innovation happens inside corporations themselves, with companies like BYD employing more than 110,000 R&D staff, and CATL relying on a 20,000-engineer workforce. The United States, meanwhile, benefits from unparalleled access to capital and world-class universities and research centres. Europe sits somewhere in between, attempting to combine industrial policy with scientific excellence.
Finally, the conversation turns to one of Sightline’s newest areas of focus: tracking data-center construction. The company currently follows 140 sites representing roughly 16 GW of announced capacity. Yet only about 6 GW are actually under construction — a reality check that has sent a chill through Wall Street.
And Laurent goes on a rant of epic proportion against certain Hyperscalers!!!
Useful links:
Sightline website: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/
Capital Stack and New Funds report: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/request-report?report-id=Dry-Powder-and-New-Funds-2026 ·
Data Center Q1 outlook report: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/request-report?report-id=data-center-outlook-q126 ·
2025 climate tech investment trends report: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/request-report?report-id=2025_investment_report ·
Article on our tour of China's electrostate: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/research/a-tour-of-chinas-electrostate ·
If people want to stay updated on our latest, they can subscribe to our CTVC climate tech newsletter here or our Powerstack power and data center markets newsletter here -
The power system is aging and poorly equipped to handle the rapid, large-scale shift toward renewables. According to Philipp Schröder, CEO of 1KOMMA5°, the real solutions lie “behind the meter.”
Gerard and Laurent sit down with Schröder to unpack what it will take to unlock the so-called “Behind the Meter” revolution.
Schröder is among a small group of European founders aiming to build a vertically integrated, consumer-focused clean energy company—something akin to a European hybrid of Tesla Energy and Sunrun. His approach combines hardware (such as solar PV systems, home batteries, heat pumps, and EV chargers), installation networks, intelligent software (including IoT-driven energy management like “Heartbeat”), and active participation in energy markets.
Software is becoming increasingly critical. Grid management and pricing systems remain outdated and inefficient, especially in Germany, where reform has been slow due to entrenched interests and the slow deployment of smart meters. By contrast, countries like Sweden are already moving ahead with more modern approaches.
The company’s growth appears to validate this strategy. 1KOMMA5° now employs over 3,000 people, is approaching EUR1 billion in annual revenue, and has raised EUR400 million from investors including Eurazeo, CalSTRS, and several prominent family offices.
Key questions remain: How does Schröder position 1KOMMA5° against competitors like Octopus, Enpal, Base, and Thermondo? Is he building the next kind of utility—or deliberately staying outside that model? And how does he navigate policy challenges, particularly when engaging with energy leaders in Germany who remain supportive of fossil fuels?
A fascinating conversation with a formidable entrepreneur who gives back literally “Power to the People”. -
Gerard and Laurent welcome Tinne Van der Straeten, CEO of WindEurope—the leading voice of the wind industry in Europe, representing more than 600 members across the entire value chain. Tinne brings a distinctive perspective to the discussion. As Belgium’s Minister for Energy during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, she experienced an energy crisis firsthand. Her background in policymaking offers a different vantage point from that of investors, shaped by the practical realities and trade-offs of government decision-making.
The conversation highlights that, despite ongoing challenges, wind energy continues to expand rapidly across Europe, with €45 billion in final investment decisions recorded in 2025. There is now a clear opportunity to repower first-generation onshore turbines, which could double installed capacity and potentially triple electricity generation. Offshore wind also stands out as a major growth area, with the North Sea remaining the central hub, while the Baltic Sea is developing steadily and early signs of momentum are emerging in Spain.
At the same time, the discussion points to the persistence of outdated, ideologically driven debates around energy sources—such as gas in Germany or nuclear in France—which increasingly feel disconnected from current realities. Policies like bans on onshore wind in Poland and offshore wind in Sweden illustrate decisions that risk slowing progress.
A central theme is the urgent need to electrify demand, particularly through the adoption of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and the expansion of data centers.
The conversation concludes by emphasizing that the missing piece is a large, integrated pan-European grid—potentially extending to Canada—combined with battery storage. Such infrastructure would accelerate decarbonization, support economic resilience, and help Europe regain control over its energy future.
Sources:
GWEC 2026 https://www.gwec.net/reports/globalwindreportWindEurope Wind Energy Statistics and Outlook Report https://windeurope.org/news/europe-invested-45bn-in-new-wind-energy-in-2025-market-tampering-would-put-future-investments-at-acute-risk/ WindEurope energy system cost study: https://windeurope.org/news/a-renewables-based-energy-system-will-save-europe-1-6-trillion/ -
Ember released its 2026 Global Electricity Review (GER26) last week—an extraordinary report showing that 100% of new global electricity generation has been met by renewables. At the same time, the decade’s “twin energy shocks” (Russia in 2022 and Hormuz in 2026) are accelerating existing trends.
What do the latest numbers tell us—and what do they mean? Laurent and Gerard are joined by a great friend of the show, Kingsmill Bond, Lead Energy Strategist at Ember, to break it all down.
They begin with the GER’s key findings, looking closely at China, the United States, Europe, and India. The figures are striking: in 2025, wind and solar alone accounted for all net global power growth—roughly equivalent to Japan’s total electricity consumption. And even that may be an underestimate, given likely gaps in data from Africa and behind-the-meter generation.
From there, the discussion shifts from long-term trends to sudden shocks. These shocks act as accelerators. Consumers, responding quickly, are installing rooftop solar and buying electric vehicles at record rates. Governments, by contrast, often move more slowly, seeking to protect incumbents and hoping for a return to the old status quo. But that return is increasingly unrealistic.
Looking beyond the numbers, the episode explores how energy shocks reshape the system. The oil shocks of the 1970s drove gains in efficiency and a wave of nuclear investment. Today’s shocks are pushing electrification, expanding renewables, and speeding up EV adoption.
Four major long-term implications stand out: 1) Asia is set to electrify faster than the rest of the world 2) Transport electrification will accelerate 3) LNG will be pushed out of the power sector 4) The long-anticipated “peak oil demand” is drawing closer.
In summary, we are shifting from a world defined by range anxiety to one increasingly shaped by pump anxiety.
Link to papers.
- Ember GER26 https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/- Twin Shocks https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-new-twin-fossil-shock/ -
In episode 219, we analysed the relationship between hyperscalers and US utilities from the hyperscaler perspective. To complete the picture, we revisit the debate from the utility’s point of view.
Gerard and Laurent welcome Rajiv Bazaj, VP of Solutions Sales at Constellation, to understand how utilities approach this rapidly evolving landscape. Spun out of Exelon a few years ago, Constellation was initially seen as the “ugly duckling,” but it was sitting on a major advantage: a large nuclear fleet. What was considered a liability in the 2010s has become a strategic asset as hyperscalers search for clean, reliable 24/7 power.
The acquisition of Calpine and its large CCGT fleet turned Constellation into the largest US utility in terms of capacity, with around 60 GW (half nuclear, half gas) and roughly 200 TWh of annual generation—placing the company at the centre of discussions with hyperscalers and data centre developers.
Constellation’s approach remains cautious. The company is only gradually moving into batteries, is bullish on demand response following the surge in PJM capacity prices and is exploring upgrades to its nuclear fleet while remaining sceptical about. Geothermal. where the Company is active, is attractive but seen as difficult to scale.
The overall picture is one of disciplined conservatism. Constellation cannot easily be pushed by aggressive data centre developers because it already has the right generation mix at the right time. Its core objective is simple: maximise fleet load factors and sell MWh at the highest possible price. Gas assets operate in the mid-merit order with strong spark spreads, while nuclear requires higher long-term prices to justify further investment, as illustrated by the Microsoft-supported Three Mile Island restart.
With around 90% of its capacity built in the 20th century, Constellation is focused on upgrading and optimising its existing fleet rather than pursuing large-scale expansion. For hyperscalers, understanding this mindset is key when engaging with utilities. -
Laurent and Gerard sit down with Paul O’Donnell, Partner at SchrodersGreencoat, a fund manager that has invested more than €13 billion and controls over 400 renewable energy assets across Europe, the Americas, and Asia. Paul has spent 17 years at Greencoat and became Partner in 2022, following Schroders’ acquisition of the platform, which itself was acquired by Nuveen in 2026.
Greencoat has a distinctive structure, as it manages listed vehicles—historically known as YieldCos—designed to provide stable dividends to investors through long-term infrastructure assets.
The discussion begins with a deep dive into the evolution of the renewable energy sector over the past 10–15 years. The market has shifted from portfolios primarily backed by government-supported contracts to a more dynamic growth strategy built on active portfolio management, trading, power purchase agreements (PPAs) with hyperscalers, and the hybridisation of assets. A key milestone in this evolution has been the push toward vertical integration, illustrated by partnerships such as the Greencoat collaboration with CATL.
The conversation also explores the growing convergence between energy investors and real estate or digital infrastructure investors, particularly in the financing of datacenters. Energy supply and cooling infrastructure are becoming increasingly critical components of data centre investment strategies. While off-grid solutions are sometimes feasible in the United States—typically involving off-grid power combined with on-grid gas—such options remain very limited in Europe.
Datacenters geography is also evolving. First-generation facilities were typically located close to major load centres and urban demand hubs, whereas second-generation developments are moving further away from large cities to areas where land and power availability are more abundant. This shift is driving strong interest in brownfield sites, including former coal plants, steel mills, and refineries.
The transition from a pure yield model to a growth-oriented strategy has been well received by the market, particularly after several years of lacklustre share price performance. This approach mirrors the playbook seen at Quinbrook and Intersect and is increasingly viewed as the winning strategy in the current market environment.
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Gerard is invited by Ana Conde from PVcase to make the case for solar paired with storage as the economic foundation of the future energy system.
We are in the midst of a technological revolution driven by electrification and AI. But building the energy system that can power this shift requires more than adding new capacity — it demands system-level thinking, new coordination mechanisms, and new financial models to ensure a smooth transition.
They explore how solar moved from a niche technology to the backbone of modern energy infrastructure and why pairing it with storage is no longer optional for project bankability and long-term competitiveness.
They discuss how grid outages act as warning signals, exposing the fragility of legacy infrastructure, and what that implies for resilience in an increasingly electrified world.
The conversation also examines the economic incentives, institutional inertia, and behavioural forces that resist technological change — and how innovative business models are beginning to unlock faster adoption.
This episode goes beyond viewing solar as a technology alone. It unpacks the economics and coordination required to build a resilient, low-cost energy system capable of supporting the AI-driven future.
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An episode delivered in partnership with SolarPower Europe. SolarPower Europe has established the ‘Battery Storage Europe Platform’ (advocacy, COMs campaigning, networking) around battery storage. Companies should join as members to help us push messages on solar, flexibility and batteries https://www.batterystorageeurope.org/ -
Laurent and Gerard speak with Dr. Michal Meidan, Head of China Energy Research at the China Energy Research Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, about the profound transformation reshaping China’s energy system. At the heart of the discussion is the country’s pivot from “molecules” to “electrons” — a structural shift from fossil fuels toward electrification powered by renewables, batteries, and electric mobility. This transition is not just about decarbonization; it represents a broader industrial and technological reconfiguration with global consequences. At the same time, China remains central to fossil fuel markets: it is the world's largest fossil fuel importer and is set to maintain that position for the rest of this decade and beyond. Still the recent events in the Strait of Hormuz have vindicated China’s energy policy of diversification, investment and strategic storage.
China’s approach reflects a distinctive “dual track” model in which command-and-control planning coexists with market dynamics. Central government frameworks, including the recent 15th Five-Year Plan, set strategic direction, while provinces interpret and implement policy with varying degrees of alignment or competition. At times collaborative and at times antagonistic, the relationship between Beijing and local authorities shapes how targets are pursued and reported. China often reframes its narrative retrospectively, particularly where electric vehicles and battery production have dramatically surpassed official expectations, highlighting the interplay between state ambition and private-sector execution.
At the same time, the transition has been propelled by powerful entrepreneurial forces. Leaders such as Robin Zheng of CATL and Stella Li of BYD embody the “animal spirits” that have driven innovation and scale in batteries and electric vehicles. In many cases, private firms have exceeded policy goals, complicating simplistic narratives of top-down control and demonstrating how state guidance and commercial dynamism reinforce one another.
Energy security remains a central pillar of this strategy. The current Hormuz crisis as well as the power shortages of 2020–2022 have exposed vulnerabilities in China’s system and reinforced the leadership’s determination to build integrated domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on imported fuels and critical materials. Industrial policy and energy policy are deeply intertwined, with electrification, renewables, and advanced manufacturing serving both resilience and competitiveness objectives. The drive for clean technology is therefore as much about strategic autonomy as it is about environmental stewardship.
Finally, the episode also addresses persistent misconceptions in Europe and the United States about China’s system, challenging both exaggerated fears and wishful thinking. Understanding China’s energy transition requires grappling with its internal tensions, strategic pragmatism, and the scale of its ambitions.
Oxford Institute
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/disruption-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-implications-for-chinas-energy-markets-and-policies/
Carbon Brief and Lauri Myllyvirta
15FYP coverage https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-15th-five-year-plan-mean-for-climate-change/
Latest on China emisisons https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-21-months/
Impact on GDP https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-drove-more-than-a-third-of-chinas-gdp-growth-in-2025/ -
Gerard and Laurent host Ira Joseph, a leading expert on gas and LNG markets at the Columbia Center on Global Energy, to explore how the Middle East conflict is reshaping the industry.
In normal times, LNG supply is led by Qatar, the U.S., and Australia, with prices anchored to benchmarks like Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM. Before the war, markets were relatively well supplied, keeping prices stable.
Three weeks into the conflict, that balance has shifted. Brent crude has climbed to about $110, European gas (TTF) to around $20/MMBtu, while U.S. Henry Hub remains near $3—highlighting growing regional divergence driven by infrastructure and trade flows.
Two views have emerged: the White House sees a temporary disruption, while analysts like Jeff Currie and James Gutman argue this is a structural supply shock—captured by the idea that “you can’t print molecules.”
The impact is uneven. Europe is highly exposed, Asia faces rising competition for cargoes, and emerging markets risk being priced out. The U.S. remains relatively insulated but increasingly vital as a supplier. Massive damage to key Gulf infrastructure such as South Pars and Ras Laffan will disrupt flows for months if not years.
In response, short-term measures include stock releases, more coal production and demand cuts. Longer term the crisis may spur new LNG investment, accelerate energy security efforts, and boost the development of renewables while further fragmenting global markets.
The takeaway: this is not just another cycle, but a structural shift in the future of energy.
References
HC Group podcasts with Paul Chapman
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4FelokgY7oWXMxwyv75N0D?si=SgGNX7S_RZuFnry5Ckdi_Q
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6bOCstN1chwOmB16u5SvRU?si=mu9PEjU9QQqvSHSmXlTafg
On LNG. Ira Joseph papers
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/us-israeli-attacks-on-iran-and-global-energy-impacts/ -
Six years after her last appearance on the podcast (Episode 28, 15 June 2020), Natasha Luther-Jones returns to join Laurent and Gerard for a lively catch-up on how both her career and the energy sector have evolved. What began with her being dubbed the “Queen of PPA” has expanded into a far broader role — prompting the hosts to crown her the “Energy Empress” as she now operates across the full spectrum of global energy and infrastructure.
Natasha reflects on the evolution as the Global co-chair in the Energy & Natural Resources practice at DLA Piper, describing how client demand has shifted from single-asset transactions to complex, multi-technology, cross-border platforms. The market has matured significantly, with renewables now firmly established as mainstream infrastructure and capital becoming more disciplined and selective.
A major growth area is battery energy storage systems (BESS), which have moved from being an adjunct to renewables to a core investment thesis in their own right. Storage, hybridisation and co-location strategies are reshaping project design, while revenue stacking and merchant exposure are demanding more sophisticated structuring and risk management.
On the M&A front, Natasha highlights sustained deal activity and strong valuations for scaled platforms and development pipelines. The market is firmly in a consolidation phase, with investors prioritising portfolio and platform transactions over single-asset deals. Innovative financing models, including holdco structures and cross-collateralisation across diversified portfolios, are increasingly replacing traditional asset-by-asset project finance.
The conversation also turns to the accelerating demand from AI-driven datacentres and the growing integration of digital infrastructure within energy complexes. As power demand surges, particularly for firm and clean energy, the convergence of energy and technology is creating new investment models and strategic partnerships — signalling that the next chapter of the energy transition will be defined as much by integration and capital structuring as by capacity build-out. -
While Gerard is fixing his knee, Laurent invites Chris Seiple, Vice Chairman of WoodMac Power & Renewables group, to try to make sense of the scale of the coming power demand surge and the strain it is placing on today’s US market structures.
AI-driven datacenter growth is pushing the US power system into uncharted territory. Roughly 180 GW of U.S. electricity commitments tied to datacenters represent about 30% incremental demand. Hyperscaler CAPEX is exploding. Demand is accelerating far faster than new supply can come online, setting up a near-term imbalance. In response, the U.S. utility sector is preparing for a potential $1.4 trillion investment supercycle over the next five years.
In regulated markets, utilities are under pressure to modernize cost-of-service models and deliver massive capital programs while keeping electricity affordable. Companies such as Duke Energy, Southern Company, Entergy, and CenterPoint Energy are planning investments that run into the hundreds of billions.
In deregulated markets, players like Constellation Energy, Vistra Corp., and NRG Energy face a structural mismatch: datacenters can be built faster than power plants, while price signals may not rise quickly enough to incentivize new generation. Some customers are exploring off-grid solutions, but these bring technical and economic challenges.
The conclusion is clear: load growth is staggering. Parts of the system may move toward re-regulation, but that alone will not be enough. Rapid innovation—decentralized solutions, grid-enhancing technologies, faster interconnections, and deeper digitization—will be essential as utilities relearn how to build at scale and speed.
Check an excellent WoodMac report on the Datacenters
https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/us-data-centre-power-demand-challenges-electricity-market-model/ -
Last month, Gerard Reid joined Shayle Kann, Managing Partner at Energy Impact Partners, for a world class and fast-moving conversation on the state and future of Climate Tech. The discussion was organised by Carbon Equity and led by its co-founder Liza Rubinstein Malamud.
Originally it featured a third guest, Will Dufton of Giant Ventures, whose contributions were fully edited for this episode (with apologies — and an open invitation to return).
First strong statement: the Silicon Valley-style climate tech era of 2021–2022 is over. Gerard is clear that carbon removal and hydrogen, at least as they were framed and funded during the hype cycle, are effectively dead. What comes now is a far more grounded, infrastructure-driven view of the transition.
Both guests are emphatically bullish on energy and AI. Shayle especially sees climate tech not as a standalone vertical, but as a horizontal that cuts across the entire economy. Anything that supports electrification, datacenters, and energy-hungry digital infrastructure represents a major opportunity. Gerard pushes the horizon even further, imagining datacenters in space.
A central theme is the convergence of AI and the physical world. Shayle argues that as large language models become commoditised, value will move from bits to atoms — from software to real-world systems, infrastructure, and industrial processes. Gerard complements this with a strong emphasis on resilience, positioning it as a defining investment lens for the coming decade.
On batteries, there is rare and total agreement. Both see them as the most important technology of our time, underpinning electrification, grid stability, transport, and the scaling of renewables.
What emerges is an intense, wide-ranging exchange between two of the sharpest minds in the energy transition — a true Battle Royale on where climate, energy, and technology are heading next.
You can watch the hour-long video here:
https://youtu.be/H5YE1Upe0JI?si=HlgHKFOOjZj8Gygp -
Lithium has doubled in three months. Copper is printing record highs. Silver went vertical—then collapsed. The move was fast. The reversals were faster. Volatility isn’t elevated. It’s systemic.
But this isn’t just another commodity cycle. These metals sit at the core of the energy transition. They’re embedded in batteries, EVs, transmission lines, datacenters, wind turbines, and solar modules. When they move, the entire transition complex moves with them.
So, what are we really looking at? Is this a positioning squeeze in thin markets? Or the early tremors of a structural repricing?
The divide is clear. At The Carlyle Group, Jeff Currie argues we’re only “on the foothills of the Himalayas” — the early stage of a structural supercycle driven by electrification, grid build-out, and constrained supply. Ed Morse pushes back. High prices cure high prices. Capital flows. Supply responds. Markets rebalance. Cycles end the way they always have. Two very different frameworks. One structural. One cyclical.
To cut through the noise, Laurent and Gerard sit down with Matt Fernley, Managing Director at Battery Materials Review and Partner at RK Equity. They dissect what’s actually driving these rallies — inventory tightness, permitting bottlenecks, capital discipline, geopolitics, demand elasticity.
They confront the supply question head-on: Can new production realistically catch up — on time, on budget, and at scale? And they explore the technologies that could reshape the curve — from the re-emergence of direct lithium extraction (DLE) to the accelerating development of sodium-ion batteries.
This isn’t just about price volatility. It’s about whether the energy transition is entering a new cost regime. Because if these inputs are structurally repricing, everything downstream changes. And if they aren’t — the unwind could be just as violent.
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Link to the report by the Volta Foundation
https://volta.foundation/battery-report-2025/ - Show more
