Episodes
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yeyV0d
David Bahnsen uses the idea of asking 19-year-olds what’s popular to critique a growing tendency among investors to allocate capital based on youth trends and “shiny objects” rather than fundamentals. He distinguishes learning about generational preferences from turning those preferences into portfolio decisions, arguing this misreads Peter Lynch’s “invest in what you know,” which requires deeper research beyond familiarity. Bahnsen cites examples where popularity failed as an investment signal—Forever 21’s boom and bankruptcy, Gap’s long-term stock decline, Snapchat’s extreme volatility despite rising users, and Krispy Kreme’s post-IPO collapse—showing that what seems popular is often already priced in. He warns against adopting crypto, Bitcoin, AI-adjacent trades, IPO mania, or meme-stock themes merely to match what younger clients want, emphasizing fiduciary duty, cash flow, intrinsic value, and the idea that fads can be a counter-signal.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
02:01 Why Youth Trends Matter
02:39 Tech Habits vs Investing
06:41 Peter Lynch Misread
09:28 Retail Fads Fail Fast
12:15 Snapchat Popularity Trap
13:34 Krispy Kreme Lesson
16:02 Crypto and AI Pressure
19:33 Shiny Object Investing
21:37 Fiduciary Depth and Close
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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In this midweek Dividend Cafe (Thursday, July 9), Brian Szytel notes a mixed recovery in markets amid renewed volatility tied to Middle East tensions, while oil prices pulled back slightly and interest rates were flat to slightly lower. Economic updates included initial jobless claims coming in a bit better than expected, suggesting steady, healthy employment, and weaker existing home sales (down 3.4% to 4.09 million), reflecting affordability pressures from high rates and a stuck housing market, with modest price declines seen as healthy clearing. He reviews June FOMC minutes showing a divided committee, some discussion of potential hikes, continued attention to AI demand, geopolitical risks, tariffs as a GDP drag, and higher inflation projections for 2026–2027, with expectations split between hikes and no change. He also explains that business cycles persist due to real-economy lags in capital, credit, inventories, labor, and policy transmission.
00:00 Market Recap Volatility
00:46 Jobs And Housing Data
01:32 Housing Affordability Reset
02:37 Fed Minutes Takeaways
03:54 Dot Plot And Guidance
05:05 Why Business Cycles Persist
06:53 Wrap Up And Q&A
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 8, discussing increased volatility tied to escalating US-Iran tensions after Iran struck oil tankers and the US retaliated against multiple military targets, with oil up about 5% and markets modestly lower but without a clear flight to safety (dollar slightly up, yields up ~3 bps, gold and silver down). He notes rotation dynamics and highlights sector breadth: pharma, household products, and utilities show 100% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, versus tech, semis, and autos below 40%. Economically, wholesale inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.3% expected, while wholesale sales jumped 3.4%, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio to its lowest since 2012. He addresses Scott Bessent’s tariff “success” claim, citing tariff revenues annualizing to about $290B versus $500B–$1T estimates, some net-positive trade deals (Japan, South Korea), little change in the trade deficit, slight GDP drag on consumers, and offsets from fiscal measures and AI-related CapEx expensing.
00:00 Market Volatility Update
00:36 Oil Moves and Safe Havens
01:11 Sector Rotation Signals
01:41 Wholesale Data Snapshot
02:10 Tariffs Success Question
03:09 Trade Deals and Deficit
04:04 Wrap Up and Tomorrow
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Brian Szytel recaps a quiet Tuesday, July 7, with markets closing modestly lower amid increased U.S.–Iran tensions involving tanker attacks and restrictions on Iran’s oil exports; crude rose about 3% to roughly $70.56 while gold dipped. Tech led the decline as semiconductors sold off, with the S&P 500 down ~0.5%, the Dow ~0.4%, and the Nasdaq down a little over 1%. Economic news was limited, but May’s U.S. trade deficit widened to $77B, about $20B more than the prior month. Despite the pullback, major indices are up around 10% year-to-date, reflecting a rotation from concentrated chip leaders (some down ~30% in 10 days) into defensives and broader participation. The 10-year yield rose ~7 bps to 4.55%. He also addresses concerns about Q1 profits boosted by mark-to-market gains on non-listed AI holdings, calling it non-recurring and two-sided.
00:00 Market Wrap Intro
00:11 Geopolitics Oil Moves
00:43 Tech Rotation Selloff
01:09 Trade Deficit Update
01:32 Year To Date Perspective
02:28 Rates And Macro Mix
02:39 Ask TBG Earnings Quirk
03:45 Closing Remarks
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bvLEBZ
In the Monday Dividend Cafe, the host recaps a post–three-day weekend market rally with the Dow closing above 53,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq up over 1%, while the 10-year Treasury remained around 4.47%. He notes TIP spreads show reduced inflation expectations even as longer yields imply stronger real growth, arguing the market can’t simultaneously justify Fed hikes on rising inflation expectations and claim the market is wrong as expectations fall; he also discusses futures pricing that still implies mostly one hike. He highlights market weakness as rotational rather than systemic, with communication services and tech leading and defensives lagging. Economic discussion includes disappointing June job growth and downward revisions alongside a lower unemployment rate driven by falling participation. He flags Florida housing supply, price cuts, and loss-making sales as signs prices were too high, contrasts with prolonged China home-price declines, and reviews steady oil, strong year-to-date midstream performance, and upcoming client reporting and geopolitical headlines.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:46 Market Open Recap
01:34 Rates and Inflation Signals
03:31 Will the Fed Hike
05:40 Rotation Not Rout
07:29 Economic Data Check
09:27 Florida Housing Warning
12:28 China Housing Contrast
13:02 Energy and Midstream Update
14:40 Week Ahead and Wrap
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vddsCn
In a midyear 2026 Dividend Cafe holiday episode, the host reviews surprises and themes shaping markets: despite the “Mag Seven” down about 2%, the S&P 493 is up roughly 15–16% and the overall index about 10%, reflecting a major rotation toward value, smaller caps, and sectors like industrials, utilities, and energy. Another surprise is the two-year Treasury yield rising from ~3.4% to nearly 4.25% as rate-cut expectations faded, flattening the curve without derailing equity valuations. He discusses AI “vulnerabilities,” noting hyperscalers’ surging CapEx and financing, dispersion across AI-related stocks, and froth signaled by a parabolic semiconductor run and tech’s heavy S&P weight, alongside speculation in meme stocks and levered single-stock ETFs. Economically, tariffs were partially removed, labor data remains mixed, M&A/SPAC activity is strong, energy and small caps have worked, housing has softened, and he reiterates disciplined, fundamental, value-oriented investing.
00:00 Holiday Weekend Welcome
00:36 Midyear Market Setup
01:21 Mag Seven Surprise
03:27 Rates Rise Yet Stocks
04:40 AI Theme Check In
05:28 Capex And Cash Flow
08:08 Valuations And Dispersion
09:50 Semiconductor Froth Warning
12:03 Speculation Beyond Crypto
14:36 Economic Tug Of War
17:14 M&A And SPAC Revival
18:26 Other Themes Scorecard
20:07 Midyear Closing Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Brian Szytel recaps an unusual pre–July 4th market session with the Dow up 594 points (+1.15%), the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.8% amid a continued unwind in momentum stocks, especially semiconductors, while value and dividend sectors outperformed and the equal-weight S&P beat the cap-weighted index. The key driver was a softer June non-farm payrolls report (57,000 jobs vs. 110,000 expected) with prior-month revisions lower, alongside a slight dip in unemployment to 4.2% driven partly by a falling labor force participation rate (61.5%, lowest since 2021). Rate-hike expectations fell sharply, with Fed futures moving to a 50/50 chance and markets pricing the Fed on hold; Szytel notes a 25 bps move is less important than AI CapEx, margins, earnings, employment, and inflation. Other data included jobless claims at 215K, average hourly earnings at 0.3%, and factory orders down 1.3% in line.
00:00 Holiday Welcome
00:33 Odd Market Snapshot
00:55 Payrolls Surprise
01:57 Rates and Rotation
02:48 No Hike Question
04:02 Other Data Points
04:35 Wrap Up and Wishes
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Brian Szytel recaps a down, rotation-driven market day from West Palm Beach, with the Dow near flat, the S&P 500 slightly lower, and the Nasdaq weaker amid a sharp semiconductor sell-off (down 5–10%) even as some software and communication services names rose. He cites strong Korean AI chip export growth (70% year over year) but suggests investors may be pricing semis for perpetually outsized growth and reacting to signs of a peak growth rate. Inflation commentary helped rates ease slightly and the yield curve steepened marginally, though the 10-year Treasury ended around 4.48%. Economic data included ADP private payrolls at 98K (below expectations), ISM manufacturing at 53.3 (expansion), and weak construction spending, reflecting housing softness tied to higher rates. He previews a holiday-shortened week and Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
00:00 Market Open Recap
00:24 Semis Selloff Explained
00:49 Korea Chip Demand Peak
01:34 Rates and Fed Talk
01:53 Index Closes and Yields
02:08 Economic Data Rundown
02:53 Housing Softness
03:31 Rotation and Small Caps
03:48 Jobs Report Preview
04:28 Wrap Up and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade and warning that BOJ interventions (about 11 trillion yen) and rate hikes could trigger volatility like August 2024. He also discusses rising system leverage, with margin debt up 54% year over year to about $1.4T and the risks of triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs for retail investors. Economic data included weaker consumer confidence, stronger JOLTS openings with steady quits, lower Chicago PMI, and softer Case-Shiller home prices (down monthly, +0.7% YoY).
00:00 Market Wrap Q2 Finale
01:32 Yen Weakness And Carry Trade
02:40 BOJ Intervention Risks
03:47 Leverage Rising In Markets
04:22 Margin Debt And Leveraged ETFs
05:51 Economic Data Roundup
06:48 Closing Thoughts And Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R54h8Z
David Bahnsen previews a forthcoming mid-year Dividend Cafe recap and notes a CNBC interview on market excesses in AI/tech and investor behavior. Markets rose sharply (Dow +300, S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +2%) led by communication services; Google’s first day in the Dow coincided with Verizon’s exit, while materials fell. He argues recent breadth versus index performance supports rotation over correction, and questions whether stock and bond markets are truly pricing Fed rate hikes despite high futures-implied odds; the 10-year ended flat at 4.37%. He reviews Iran-US ceasefire uncertainty and Supreme Court activity, including sending the Lisa Cook firing dispute to lower court for due process while upholding an FTC firing. He flags bipartisan interest in taxing/data-center limits, discusses a likely housing bill with limited impact versus state/local barriers, cites rising supply-chain cost indicators, weak new-home sales and falling prices, notes Fed balance-sheet growth, oil at $70.50, and upcoming JOLTS and jobs data (Thursday).
00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead
02:12 Market Recap and Rotation
04:17 Fed Hike Debate
07:04 Geopolitics and Supreme Court
10:03 Data Centers and Housing Bill
12:59 Economy Housing and Fed Sheet
15:14 Energy and Jobs Week
16:05 Wrap Up and Thanks
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4v7DfvO
From Grand Rapids, David Bahnsen reflects on a speech and borrows Abraham Lincoln’s “last best hope” language to argue that markets—properly understood as broad venues of human exchange, entrepreneurship, and capital formation, not merely the stock market—are inherently forward-looking declarations of optimism. He contrasts market incentives with media and political incentives that often reward negativity, and contends that entrepreneurs and investors with “skin in the game” demonstrate belief in a better tomorrow by turning ideas into solutions that meet human needs. Bahnsen urges defenders of free enterprise to resist dehumanizing markets into charts, ratios, and GDP-only talk, emphasizing the human realities of risk-taking, labor, innovation, and profitably providing goods and services. He previews a mid-year 2026 report for next week ahead of the Fourth of July and the nation’s 250th anniversary.
00:00 Welcome From Grand Rapids
00:36 Lincoln Last Best Hope
03:10 Markets As Hope
03:51 Not Just The Stock Market
05:18 Entrepreneurial Incentives
09:16 Risk And Future Focus
10:11 Humanizing Economics
14:23 Capital Tools And Portfolios
17:32 Closing And Next Week Preview
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, June 25, describing a mixed but slightly positive market with a growth-to-value rotation as equal-weighted indexes outpaced cap-weighted, rates dipped, and oil rose slightly while Brent returned near pre US-Iran levels; despite one major AI semiconductor earnings beat lifting parts of the space, much of tech was down. He reviews heavy economic releases: May PCE inflation met expectations (0.4% headline, 0.3% core; core PCE 3.4% YoY), Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, jobless claims beat expectations, durable goods fell as expected, and personal income and consumer spending exceeded forecasts, with five of six items better than expected. He highlights dividend growth using a 2000 S&P 500 example where a 1.2% yield grew to about 5.5% cash-on-cash over 26 years, and discusses private credit redemption gates, diversification, and software-sector stress as a key risk versus a systemic collapse.
00:00 Market Snapshot
01:03 Economic Data Rundown
02:36 Value Rotation Drivers
02:45 Dividend Growth Power
04:36 Ask TPG Private Credit
05:11 Run on Bank Explained
06:49 Wrap Up and Weekend
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Brian Szytel recaps a Wednesday session that began with a recovery bounce led by technology as interest rates and WTI fell, but the rally fizzled and selling in tech resumed while value names held up better. He says markets are digesting valuation pressure with stocks trading around 22–23x earnings and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could affect oil prices. He highlights the 2s/10s spread flattening from about 80 bps earlier in the year to about 26 bps, suggesting slowing growth and potential Fed policy risk as inflation remains a concern; markets imply a high chance of at least one rate hike by year-end. The key data point was weak May new home sales (580k vs 640k expected) and elevated unsold new-home inventory at 9.4 months amid high mortgage rates.
00:00 Market Bounce Fizzles
00:44 Valuations and Oil Risk
01:35 Yield Curve Warning Signs
02:00 Fed Policy and Rate Hike Odds
03:15 Listener Question on Spreads
04:03 Housing Data Miss
05:11 Wrap Up and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off led by technology and semiconductors, highlighting a nearly 10% drop in South Korea’s KOSPI—an index heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix—attributed to valuation, demand shifts, and DRAM supply issues after a major run-up. He notes similar 5–10% declines in high-flying semiconductor names and emphasizes that despite real AI-driven demand and a rare reversal of decades-long chip price declines due to supply-demand imbalance, valuations still matter. On the economic front, flash PMIs were strong: manufacturing surged to 55.7, the highest in a little over four years, and services also beat expectations, supporting an improving growth backdrop tied partly to data-center CapEx. He addresses concerns about the U.S. dollar losing reserve status, arguing no viable replacement exists, citing dollar dominance in FX (90%) and global reserves (57%) versus the euro (20%).
00:00 Summer Market Check-In
00:31 Global Tech Sell-Off
01:38 Semis Valuation Reality
02:01 AI Chip Demand Shift
02:48 PMI Data Highlights
03:43 Dollar Reserve Status Fears
04:32 What Could Replace Dollar
05:53 Reserve Currency Numbers
06:32 Wrap Up and Q&A
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vxzpNy
David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from Grand Rapids during the Acton Institute Symposium, noting a relatively quiet day that allows more market focus. The Dow rose 148 points while the S&P fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33% amid weakness in communication services and mega-cap names. He highlights strong year-to-date energy performance, surprising small-cap outperformance, and argues much of the market’s gain is concentrated in AI/AI-adjacent and energy. Bahnsen cites speculative behavior in the SpaceX IPO, including extreme trading volume, limited float, and a sharp decline from recent highs. Bonds sold off with the 10-year at 4.51% and the 2/10 spread flattening to 28 bps from ~80 bps. He shares an anecdote about Allbirds rebranding to “Smartbird” to pivot to AI, covers UK political instability, Iran-US talks, pending US housing legislation, mortgage rates, Fed hike probabilities, Alan Greenspan’s death at 100, and oil falling to $75.19 as Hormuz uncertainty persists.
00:00 Welcome and agenda
01:24 Market close snapshot
02:19 Sector leadership and breadth
03:06 Small caps surprise strength
03:49 SpaceX IPO mania
06:23 Rates and yield curve shift
07:13 AI bubble anecdote
08:57 UK politics and US policy
09:59 Fed odds and Greenspan
11:08 Oil and energy outlook
12:06 Wrap up and reminders
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fUPJml
David Bahnsen hosts Friday’s Dividend Cafe from East Hampton on June 19, a Juneteenth market holiday, and discusses whether current conditions signal a “top” while rejecting short-term market timing. He notes elevated S&P 500 multiples based on operating earnings and warns that today’s concern is more about market mood and complacency than valuations alone, citing Bill Ackman’s SpaceX-related quote as symptomatic of circular reasoning about value. Bahnsen argues the risk paradigm is shifting as companies move from low reinvestment and buybacks toward heavy capex, more borrowing, and potential equity issuance. He highlights NVIDIA and Broadcom stocks lagging despite strong revenue growth as possible signs of over-discounted narratives, and points to extreme SpaceX valuation as a sentiment indicator. He also describes a Fed leadership shift toward a more constrained approach that may tolerate froth coming out of risk assets, concluding investors should prioritize rational, defensible portfolios tied to operating performance and dividend growth.
00:00 Summer Intro and Holiday
00:57 Is This the Top
02:33 Valuations Aren't the Trigger
04:45 The Market Vibe Problem
06:13 Ackman Quote Warning Sign
09:27 Risk Paradigm Shifts
11:59 NVIDIA and Broadcom Signals
14:32 SpaceX Valuation and Mood
16:19 Fed Regime Change
19:53 Do the Right Thing
22:19 Closing Thanks
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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On Thursday, June 18, David Bahnsen recapped a strong market day led by the Nasdaq (up nearly 500 points, just under 2%), with the S&P 500 up just over 1% and the Dow up 72 points. Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services led, while energy, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples lagged. He highlighted SpaceX’s roughly $2.5 trillion market cap (down from nearly $3 trillion days earlier after a 17–18% drop) and contrasted it with Amazon and Microsoft profitability versus SpaceX’s $19 billion in sales and a $9 billion loss. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 226,000 (four-week average 223,000). Bond yields reflected further curve flattening: the 10-year fell to 4.45% while shorter maturities rose.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:23 Market Rally Snapshot
00:44 Sector Winners and Losers
01:07 SpaceX Valuation Reality Check
02:33 Jobless Claims Update
02:54 Yield Curve Flattening
03:28 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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David Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh announced five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, and emphasized focusing on what data says about the economy rather than predicting the Fed’s reaction. Markets sold off: the Dow swung from +280 to close -500, the S&P fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq more than 1.25%, alongside a yield-curve flattening with short rates up far more than the 10-year. All 11 S&P sectors ended down.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:10 Fed Meeting Recap
01:14 Dot Plot and Guidance
01:55 Five Fed Task Forces
02:44 Reaction Function Critique
04:17 Market Selloff and Yields
05:29 Sector Performance Breakdown
06:02 Economic Data Check
06:26 Wrap Up and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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David Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly continued lower. Bahnsen argues Monday’s rally was less about Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and more a return to AI-tech momentum, which reversed Tuesday, framing the key market tension as AI momentum and valuations versus more fundamental sectors like REITs, healthcare, industrials, and staples. He also defines “first-year maximum drawdown” as the largest peak-to-trough decline in a stock’s first year post-IPO.
00:00 Market Recap Overview
00:38 Sector Rotation Snapshot
01:31 Bonds and Tech Divergence
02:11 Debunking the Iran Rally
03:04 AI Momentum vs Fundamentals
04:07 What Drawdown Means
05:02 Wrap Up and Contact
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eITc6m
David Bahnsen covers a broad “around the horn” Monday Dividend Cafe, highlighting extreme SpaceX IPO trading volume as evidence of IPO mania rather than price discovery. Markets rallied on weekend news of a forthcoming U.S.-Iran agreement and a planned signing, with the Dow up 469 points, the S&P up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up over 3%; technology led while energy fell, small caps continued to outperform, and the 10-year yield held near 4.47%. He notes key unknowns in the Iran deal (Hormuz terms, enforcement, uranium, funds). Economic and policy updates include May industrial production up 0.1%, falling homebuilder sentiment (35), and housing affordability bill uncertainty. He previews the FOMC meeting and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, cites the ECB’s first hike in over three years, discusses lower oil and gasoline prices, answers a question on dividend growth returns, and closes celebrating the Knicks’ first title in 53 years.
00:00 Welcome and Agenda
01:02 SpaceX IPO Mania
03:11 Markets Rally and Rotation
05:27 Iran Deal Unknowns
07:28 Economic and Policy Updates
09:13 Housing Sentiment Check
10:01 Central Banks and Fed Week
11:05 Oil and Gas Price Moves
11:50 Dividend Growth Q&A
13:37 Knicks Championship Moment
15:31 Closing Thanks
Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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