Episodes
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The Round of 16 preview extravaganza continues with the big matches on July 6. How Portugal's tactical system continues to try and fail to work around Ronaldo's limitations, what we want to see from Spain in this match, the importance of the Spanish fullbacks, and then of course the USMNT preview. How Pochettino will likely approach this match against an opponent that will seek to control possession, why Jeremy Doku terrifies us and how Belgium's attacking band is supposed to work, and the inexplicable tactical decisions of Rudi Garcia and how they could give the US an advantage.
The other Round of 16 previews, are on the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/doublepivot
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The dynamics of the entire bracket, from Argentina's cakewalk to the interesting but different tests for Brazil and England, to Spain's good path and their fitness and tactical issues, a little model breakdown on Colombia, why the draw for African teams means we shouldn't read too much into the results, and more.
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Missing episodes?
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There's so much football and we are not happy about recognizing FIFA for it. But we've got what's wrong with Portugal (mostly Ronaldo), what's gone right for Ivory Coast (both players and coaching), Caley explains "Spuruguay," and we try to figure out Belgium.
The Henry segment on Ronaldo: https://bsky.app/profile/dreyesceron.bsky.social/post/3moj2hwalms2e
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England won 4-2 over Croatia, dominated the xG, and generally looked like a real football team and a real World Cup contender. We have some slightly different takes on the first half, we get into questions about the PADDLIN' model and England, and of course Marouane Fellaini is discussed in some depth.
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Mike has written a World Cup 2026 update to his classic Grantland piece about how to watch soccer. We discuss expected goals and how to use statistics well and poorly, we talk tactics and "flex back threes" and "five guys" and "rest defense" and how it all goes back to Pep Guardiola at Bayern Munich, and a little bit on the economics of the game and why that explains the coaches at the 2026 World Cup.
Read Goodman in 2026: https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/fifa-2026-world-cup-expected-goals-analytics-soccer-nerd/
And see Goodman from 2014: https://grantland.com/features/how-to-watch-the-world-cup-like-a-true-soccer-nerd/
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A big win for the United States Men's National Team (USMNT, pronounced us-mnt) that validated belief in Mauricio Pochettino and the system he built for these players. We get into why the xG isn't quite as impressive as one might expect, the distinctive tactics you could see in action during the game, and just how far out over skis one might reasonably get after this match.
For more on the Double Pivot's PADDLIN' World Cup model, see our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/@DoublePivotPod
And the Expecting Goals model write-up (with live updating on the way): https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-projections-introducing
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There is so much to get to this week, and this will be the first of many podcasts. We cover the Champions League final and why we did not have much of a problem with Arsenal's defensive approach, our plans for building a World Cup model and some of the models out there, and the big plans for where these podcasts are going to be published.
You can check out all the new... video content at: https://www.youtube.com/@DoublePivotPod
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Arsenal won the Premier League. They were also the best team in the Premier League by any analytical measure. But they were an unusual best team in the league, tactically and statistically, and we get into the peculiarities of the style that helped get the Gunners over the line. And we talk about what to expect from Arsenal and PSG in the Champions League final.
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Chelsea will reportedly hire Xabi Alonso as their new manager for next season. We discuss how Chelsea got to this point, what they appear to have promised to Xabi and how this may or may not fit within Chelsea's current sports and business model. We also discuss Xabi's impressive managerial record and how his tactical approach might fit Chelsea's talent.
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Has the moment finally come? With West Ham's disallowed goal in the closing seconds against Arsenal, the football discourse has returned to the question of the new corner kick tactic, which this podcast has somehow managed to name "the meat wall". We discuss what happened in the Arsenal match, but our goal is not to referee the moment over. Our focus is on why this seems likely to drive some degree of change in refereeing standards or even the rules of the game, why we think that an assertive response is necessary, and we walk through several possibilities for how the sport and the leagues might respond.
Read Caley's new newsletter here: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-meat-wall-era-in-the-premier
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Manchester United have had an undoubtedly successful season, qualifying for the Champions League with underlying numbers perfectly in line with that position. But their results shifted markedly when they sacked Ruben Amorim and brought in Michael Carrick. Was this a major driver of their results or a mirage of finishing?
We discuss the real tactical changes under Carrick and how they show up in the numbers, why Kobbie Mainoo is the key player in this tactical shift, some notable differences in how the team approaches game state, and nonetheless how there is clearly just a ton of variance going on here.
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Somehow, here in 2026, a major title race clash in the Premier League lived up to the billing. We discuss how Arsenal's aggressive defensive approach created an open and exciting match for a long stretch, how City's period of possession dominance in the second half nonetheless also produced some of Arsenal's best scoring chances, and why the final ten minutes were so uninspiring compared to the rest of the match, and what it all tells us about who is likely to win the title.
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There are just a few Premier League teams left in the Say Something Challenge and one of them is Arsenal. Why they're obviously the title favorites and why, seriously asking why are they playing football like this? Plus we fight our way through to having something to say about Burnley, Wolves, Brighton and Forest.
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Caley wrote a newsletter about the origins of the set piece revolution, whether it's all Mikel Arteta's fault, how teams actually score off throw-ins, and why set pieces didn't take over the game earlier. This pod talks through the newsletter and some of our theories of how the set piece side of the game is interacting with larger open play tactical trends.
Newsletter link: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-origins-of-the-set-piece-revolution
Also newsletter link: https://www.patreon.com/posts/origins-of-set-154510725?utm_medium=clipboard_copy&utm_source=copyLink&utm_campaign=postshare_creator&utm_content=join_link
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We are joined by Sam Greenwood, high-stakes poker player and the writer and publisher of the Punt of the Day newsletter (to which Mike Goodman also contributes), to talk about poker and some questions we've been thinking about in sports and analytics and, well, publishing a podcast and recording a newsletter, about the world of optimizing and making money by clicking buttons on the computer.
And because Sam is not only our Gambling Correspondent but also our Canadian Soccer Correspondent, we also turn to discussing the Canadian Men's National Team and the upcoming World Cup.
Check out Punt of the Day: https://www.puntoftheday.com/2026/
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We are joined by Leif Weatherby, author of Language Machines: Cultural AI and the End of Remainder Humanism, to talk about artificial intelligence: what these new technologies do, but more than that how the fact of their existence can teach us more about how language works. And then we continue down a variety of paths talking sports analytics, optimization, and other topics.
https://www.upress.umn.edu/9781517919320/language-machines/
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