Episodes
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis we discuss inflation and how to hedge a portfolio for it.
YouTube Video Links: How to Protect Your Portfolio from Inflation
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Why Cash is Not Trash
(4:34) — Duration Risk
(10:32) — Berkshire Hathaway and the Cost of Equity
(16:50) — Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Average?
(19:10) — Don't Position Your Portfolio for Macro Calls
(24:34) — End of World Portfolio
(29:10) — Emergency Savings
(34:47) — Real Estate-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see Speedwell's and Drew Cohen Money's full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis we discuss whether we are in an AI bubble and various factors investor should consider.
YouTube Video Links: Why This Isn't an AI Bubble (Yet)
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Financial vs Technology Bubbles
(5:45) — Are AI Model Companies in a Bubble?
(11:04) — Arguments For Why We Are in an AI Bubble
(25:51) — How Reflexivity Affects Outcomes
(35:33) — Software Bull Case
(38:12) — AI Bubble Argument Summary
(41:29) — AI Bubble Counterarguments
(46:36) — What You Can Do as an Investor-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see Speedwell's and Drew Cohen Money's full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers
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Missing episodes?
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss S&P 500 valuations and concentration, and provide short thoughts on Constellation Software, Intuit, Sea Limited, and Mercado Libre.
YouTube Video Links: S&P 500 Concentration
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Show Notes
(0:00) — S&P 500 Concentration a Risk?
(20:40) — Adobe Report Tease
(23:18) — Intuit Earnings Review
(36:12) — CSU Earnings and AGM
(44:34) — Why AI is a Beneficiary for Axon
(49:17) — Mercado Libre Earnings Takeaways and Risks
(56:38) — Sea Limited Earnings Takeaways and Risks-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see Speedwell's and Drew Cohen Money's full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers
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In this wide spanning interview I spoke with pseudonymous investor Rose Celine. Rose is quite prolific on Twitter/X, commonly sharing his sharp thoughts on a variety of different stocks. In this interview we cover several of his investments and how he thinks about various investing topics. We hope you enjoy!
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Rose's Background
(6:31) — Investment Philosophy
(8:46) — Punch Card Investing
(13:27) — Axon Mistake
(20:28) — Mercado Libre Investment Case
(27:37) — Thoughts on Sea Limited Competition
(32:44) — South America Profitability vs the U.S.?
(40:28) — Portfolio Construction
(44:38) — DLocal Investment Thesis
(54:45) — Importance of Management
(55:57) — Why Rose Invested in ServiceNow
(59:32) — Valuation Thoughts
(1:10:50) — Mercado Libre FinTech Risk
(1:17:58) — Business Models Rose Avoids
(1:21:42) — How to Judge an Opportunity Based on Opportunity Cost
(1:29:07) — Sell a Great Business When it's Overvalued?-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ Also see Drew Cohen's disclaimers here: https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers
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On this podcast we talk to Gunjan Bhartia, Former VP of Strategy & Business at Coupang to explore Coupang's evolving strategy—from international expansion to business model evolution—and the hidden risks that may be overlooked by the market. This was orginally recorded as an AlphaSense webinar in January, and we thank AlphaSense for letting us release it on our podcast too.
Sign-Up for the Adobe AI Expert Call Here. We will have this conversation on May 5th, but you will be able to download a recording if you sign-up now and miss that time.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(5:10) — South Korean E-Commerce Competitive Landscape
(9:25) — What Coupang's Market Share Could Be
(10:47) — Biggest Gaps in Selection on Coupang
(16:16) — Differences Between 1P vs 3P
(18:30) — Taiwan
(23:00) — Coupang vs Sea Limited in Taiwan
(28:32) — Can Coupang Expand Beyond Korea?
(35:40) — Coupang Eats Strategy
(40:04) — Coupang Pay Strategy
(42:27) — Advertising Runway
(46:08) — Coupang Pay Strategy
(50:04) — Why 1P is More Profitable Than 3P
(58:02) — Risks Facing Coupang-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ Also see Drew Cohen's disclaimers here: https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers
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In this insightful interview I spoke with Hedge Fund Manager of Hayden Capital, Fred Liu. We talked about his investment philosophy of "emerging compounders" and how he likes to concentrate in a few stocks. We also talk about a few of his investments including Sea Limited and AppLovin.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(0:43) — Fred Liu's Investment Philosophy
(2:39) — Looking for Owner-Operators
(4:49) — Why Fred Liu Concentrates His Portfolio
(8:29) — Thoughts on Trimming Winners
(16:03) — Investing in Rational Capital Allocators
(19:15) — What Fred Liu Saw in Sea Limited and Shopee in 2018
(32:38) — Why Amazon Isn't Successful Globally & How Pinduoduo Took Over Alibaba
(44:49) — Why Fred Liu Exited Pinduoduo
(46:48) — Expectations With Sea Limited
(51:48) — Shopee's Strategy in Brazil Compared to Mercado Libre
(58:22) — AppLovin Investment Thesis
(1:05:07) — Expectations for AppLovin Going Forward
(1:09:15) — AppLovin's Risks
(1:11:49) — Where You Can Find Fred Liu-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ Also see Drew Cohen's disclaimers here: https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss private credit and take-aways from our Shift4, Chris Mayer and Bill Nygren interivews.
YouTube Video Links: Private Credit, Tax Implications of Selling Stock
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(2:50) — Shift4 Interview Takeaways
(13:43) — Bill Nygren Interview Takeaways
(16:35) — When Do You Buy or Sell and How Taxes Affect Your Selling Decision
(33:00) — Chris Mayer Interview Takeaways: Thoughts on CSU & Copart
(40:36) — Private Credit Crisis-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see Speedwell's and Drew Cohen Money's full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers
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In this insightful interview I spoke with fund manager Chris Mayer. Chris is an investment fund manager and author of many books including "100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100 to 1 and How to Find Them". In this interview we talk everything from investment philosophy and when to sell to specific stocks like Constellation Software and Copart. We hope you enjoy!
You can find a video version of this podcast on YouTube here
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Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:50) — Investment Philosophy
(1:45) — Concentration
(4:08) — Margin of Safety
(7:18) — Risk of Paying a Premium Multiple
(10:02) — Buy & Hold or Sell?
(17:33) — CSU Reinvestment Risk
(24:02) — What Stocks Excite Chris the Most
(28:26) — Is the Quality Sell-Off Justified?
(33:31) — AI Risks
(37:14) — Thoughts on Copart
(51:00) — Research Process
(1:02:44) — What Companies Will Be Impacted by AI
(1:08:52) — How Do You Have Confidence in a Buy/Sell Decision?
(1:13:05) — How Psychological Biases Affect Decision Making
(1:16:55) — The Risk of Copying Successful Investors
(1:22:03) — Why You Can Time the Market
(1:24:36) — The Investor's Odyssey-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this incredible interview I spoke with legendary investor Bill Nygren, who has beaten the market over a 25 year period by around 200bps. This is an extremely hard and rare feat. In our wide-spanning conversation Bill tells us about everything from his investment process and valuation framework to how to value a cyclical business, the importance of management, investing lessons from Netflix & Meta, as well as what a lot of value investors get wrong. We even had time to talk about his Salesforce and Airbnb postions a bit. We hope you enjoy!
You can find a video version of this podcast on YouTube here
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Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:51) — Bill Nygren's Investment Philosophy
(4:15) — Valuation Timeframe
(9:22) — Is There a Thing as Fair Value?
(12:19) — Investing in Banks
(17:30) — Why Haven't We Had a Normal Recession?
(18:43) — How to Value a Cyclical Business?
(23:24) — How Confident Can You Be on Your Downside?
(24:36) — Does the Quality of Management Matter?
(26:28) — How Important is ROIC?
(28:34) — Should an Investor Buy & Hold Forever?
(39:21) — The Role of Talking to Management in Your Investment Process
(41:54) — Research Process
(44:54) — How to Gain Confidence in Your Research
(49:08) — Investing Lessons From Meta & Netflix
(1:03:48) — Portfolio Analyst Relationship
(1:06:38) — Portfolio Diversification
(1:10:06) — Salesforce and the AI Risks
(1:13:64) — What to Do About Deferred Revenue in Software Stocks
(1:17:26) — Why Bill Owns Airbnb Over Booking Holdings-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this fantastic interview we spoke with the CEO of Shift4, Taylor Lauber, and CFO, Christopher Cruz. We covered everything from what sets Shift4 apart from competition to capital allocation and their latest acquistion of Global Blue.
You can find our Shift4 Research report here.
AlphaSense has a repository of over 200k expert call transcripts that are similar to this conversation. Sign-up for access here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Shift4 Business Overview
(1:14) — Where Shift4 Fits in the Payment Value Chain
(3:17) — How Shift4 Differentiates Itself
(7:12) — Competitive Dynamics
(8:46) — Toast vs Shift4
(14:26) — ROIC and Capital Allocation
(24:46) — The Role of Gateway and Global Blue
(36:34) — Global Blue Competitive Dynamics
(44:06) — Organic Growth vs M&A
(59:39) — 2027 Free Cash Flow Target Still on the Table?
(1:04:22) — Can Shift4 be Recreated?-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this exceptional interview, we talk to Cofounder of Square (Block) Jim McKelvey on competing against Amazon. From his time at Square, he saw how they were able to outcompete Amazon and he wasn't sure how that was possible given their superior resources, merchant network, and large base of talented employees. After better understanding how that was possible, he wrote a book on his insights called "The Innovation Stack". In this interview we touch on some of his key learnings, as well as talk about why it is so hard to copy some businesses.
**Purchase Jim's Book, The Innovation Stack, Here
AlphaSense has a repository of over 200k expert call transcripts that are similar to this conversation. Sign-up for access here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Amazon vs Square
(13:22) — Why Amazon Quit Against Square
(24:58) — Southwest
(37:33) — Copying a Companies Innovation Stack
(40:53) — Advice to Build a Business
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discuessed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss Netflix stepping away from Warner Bros., Duolingo and underlying growth issues, plus Paypal and what makes a great manager.
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YouTube Video Links: Paypal, Netflix, Duolingo
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro, Netflix/Paramount Warner Bros. Deal
(17:17) — Duolingo Selloff
(30:08) — Duolingo Valuation
(36:20) — PayPal Overview
(42:48) — What Makes a Good Manager?
(52:41) — PayPal Valuation-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss the recent fears in SaaS with the looming AI risk and dig deeper into ServiceNow!
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Watch the ServiceNow Video here, or the Constellation Software Video Here, the Adobe Video Here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(3:48) — ServiceNow Business Overview
(13:00) — Risks to ServiceNow
(21:32) — AI Control Tower
(24:14) — Competitive Dynamics
(32:10) — Valuation
(35:18) — Mature Margin Diatribe
(42:39) — AI Risk Rebuttal
(46:16) — ServiceNow Blue Sky Scenario
(47:38) — Intuit Disrupted?
(50:46) — Will Margins Collapse for SaaS?
(52:54) — Difference Between SMB vs Enterprise SaaS-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this Company episode of The Synopsis we talk about Shift4, drawing from our 85-page research report to cover everything from their early history, to an overview of the payment landscape, and their unique customer acquisition model, as well as competitive moats.
**Learn more about our 85-page Shift4 Research Report here**
For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
If you need help getting Speedwell Research to become an approved research vendor, so you can expense your subscription, please email [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(6:04) — Why Shift4?
(11:36) — Payment Processing Example
(18:34) — Shift4 History
(45:40) — Revenue Breakdown
(57:10) — Gateway Economics
(1:00:00) — Business Overview
(1:02:00) — Competition
(1:10:00) — Value Proposition
(1:15:56) — Capital Allocation & ROIC
(1:27:00) — Valuation
(1:32:16) — Risks
(1:38:00) — Upside
(1:40:50) — Shift4 CEO Interview Announcement-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. At the time of recording no contributors had a position in FOUR. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss the recent sell off of software names, Constellation Software, and introduce the idea of "Point of Monetization" to analyze why Dating Apps are such a bad business.
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Watch the Constellation Software Video Here, the Adobe Video Here, or The "Why Dating Apps are a Bad Business" Video Here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Ferrari Report
(1:14) — Software Selloff
(7:06) — Will AI Become Modularized?
(8:25) — CSU AI Risk
(24:30) — Why Dating Apps are Bad Businesses
(39:52) — Upcoming Announcements-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this monologue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss AppFolio, Meta, & LVMH, plus make some CSU comments.
Watch the Constellation Software Video
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Show Notes
(0:00) —Monologue Intro
(1:16) — CSU Video
(3:28) — New Research Report Announcement
(5:02) — LVMH 4Q25 Update
(10:26) — AppFolio 4Q25 Update
(13:34) — Meta 4Q25 Update
(24:51) — Trailing Multiple Diatribe-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss Uber and AV! I also released a
Watch the Uber YouTube Video Here
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Podcast Format Announcement
(3:37) — Uber History
(11:12) — Alibaba Analogy
(13:24) — Management & Increasing Monetization
(16:32) — Opportunities
(18:57) — Grocery Delivery
(20:42) — Where Will Growth Come From?
(22:36) — Uber Freight
(23:20) —AV Opportunity
(26:22) — AV Risk (Waymo)
(29:24) — Robotaxi
(35:21) — Agentic AI
(37:52) — Valuation-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Follow Us:
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Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this rare interview, we talked to Claire Kent, a Former Board of Director at Prada to give her insight on the luxury industry and luxury investing. A special thanks to AlphaSense for letting us republish it here.
**Coupang Webinar Sign-up Link Here
AlphaSense has a repository of over 200k expert call transcripts that are similar to this conversation. Sign-up for access here.
*~*~*~*~*
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(3:00) — Luxury Brand DNA
(8:44) — Who is Actually Luxury
(22:00) — Gen-Z
(38:00) — China Slowdown
(52:23) — More Sought After Company?-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast own $LVMH. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in $LVMH. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss SpaceX's business model and put real math around how to justify their reported $1.5 trillion valuation. We do this all while plugging an upcoming expert call webinar on Coupang and our new Shift4 deep dive!
Coupang Expert Call Interview
SpaceX YouTube Video
Shift4 Deep Dive
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Shift4 & AlphaSense Coupang Announcement
(3:50) — SpaceX Intro
(6:36) — SpaceX Business Segments
(16:04) — Competition in Launch
(21:36) — Starlink Competition
(27:16) — SpaceX Valuation-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Threads: @speedwell_research
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss 8 mistakes many investors make (and what do do instead), while also plugging our new newsletter.
8 Key Mistakes Investors Make YouTube Video
SpaceX YouTube Video
Five Minute Money Newsletter Sign Up
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Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(2:49) — Mistake #1: Position Sizing
(12:25) — Mistake #2: Overlooking Conflicting Info
(20:11) — Mistake #3: Borrowing Conviction
(25:44) — Mistake #4: Selling Too Soon
(32:28) — Mistake #5: Overlooking Intuition
(39:56) — Mistake #6: Dismissing Ideas Due to Bias
(45:23) — Mistake #7: Sentiment Driving Emotions
(54:13) — Mistake #8: Monitoring
(56:10) — Outro-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
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Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
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