Episódios
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Of all the concepts focused on throughout the discussions hosted on the Alpha Exchange, the notion of “carry” is one of my favorites. In its most basic definition, carry measures the income or cost to holding an asset in the steady state, when nothing changes. Underpinning the assessment of value in any option trade or strategy is a view on the favorability of carry at a given point in time. Can I own options for free or at least at meaningful discounts to their value? Mr. Market makes this very unlikely. Can I be especially well compensated for being short optionality? These are challenging questions, worthy of careful study. And in this context, it was a pleasure to welcome Shailesh Gupta, the Head of Structural Alpha at Simplify Asset Management to the podcast. Our conversation explores areas of carry in the market, why they exist, how they can be harvested and what can go wrong in the process. Shailesh shares his views on the pricing of interest rate volatility, where the vol risk premium has been especially high and how that fits into product design at his firm’s ETF platform. We talk also about risk – including the crowding episode in VIX products in 2017 leading into the XIV event of 2018. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Shailesh Gupta.
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It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Meb Faber, the Founder and CEO of Cambria Asset Management. Our conversation begins with the question of whether it’s a good idea to buy the market at an all time high. To this, Meb argues it’s actually a great idea, pointing to the data and that markets in an uptrend continue to move higher.
We incorporate the notion of a trend following strategy, which Meb illustrates can be helpful in managing the inevitable and substantial drawdown which forces many investors out of the market and destroys the value of compounding in the process. No strategy is perfect, and trend following can underperform during sideways, choppy markets. But it has proven important to cut off the deep left tail with reasonable success. We also explore the work Meb has done on shareholder yield, a strategy that he’s passionate about and argues works particularly well in foreign and emerging markets.
Lastly, we talk about that a vastly under-appreciated aspect of return generation in investing: taxes. The team at Cambria is doing some interesting work on this front, utilizing a feature of the code that helps investors diversify risk in a tax efficient manner. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Meb Faber. -
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Is Trump in the price? Wall Street is asking this question. In this podcast, I walk through how the market prices implied volatility around the US Election, focusing on the SPX, TLT and even DJT. As option premiums are much higher than justified by recent realized, there’s an enormous vol risk premium, the result of a withdrawal of vol supply. There’s interesting information coming from betting sites like Polymarket and early voting data as well that might help us better understand the election probabilities and the implications for how the market prices options. Lastly, I consider the relatively rare co-existence of a high VIX but low SPX implied correlation and what that means. I hope you enjoy this discussion and welcome your feedback. Have a great week.
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In this short podcast, I make the case for doing what doesn’t come naturally - taking defensive action when times are good. The first portion of the discussion assesses event risk premium into and after consequential macro events like Brexit and prior US elections. The main shared attribute is that implied vol remains elevated into the event, even in the face of muted realized volatility. A second attribute is that post event, implied vol falls. While the same playbook may be relevant in 2024, I argue that overlaying market-based insurance via SPX put spreads out to year end is compelling given the pricing and unique set of forward-looking uncertainties coming our way and the reality that liquidity conditions can change very quickly. I hope you find this podcast interesting and useful.
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In China, the “vol shot” heard round the world occurred recently with the Chinese government throwing the kitchen sink at the economy and market, seeking to revive the relatively lifeless patient. As it usually does, at least temporarily, it worked. Insofar as asset price reaction that is. An explosion in volumes ensued as did the classic “stock up vol up” dynamic made most famous in 2021 during the Meme stock episode. In this short pod, I review the five characteristics of price/vol spirals, their implications and how these unique episodes resolve themselves. I also cover US Election risk and how its impacting the VIX. I hope you enjoy and find this useful.
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Option prices - by incorporating time (expiry) and distance (strike) - give us many more dimensions than a mere flat price like the SPX or a single stock. If the stock market speaks, then the option market sings. It's my strong contention that option prices are singing out loud right now, begging for attention. The market was largely unchanged on the week, but there were some meaningful developments in the price of options – on gold, on crude and on the VIX – that tell us something about an emerging discomfort and perhaps a view that stock prices at all-time highs do not have much margin of safety in this environment. What I highlight in this podcast is that hedging costs can be a function of the market's ability to provide the capital to absorb loss. The Election and a very unsettling geopolitical backdrop make this more challenging. I hope you find this helpful.
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The gamma and theta characteristics of ODTE are attached at the hip. But the zero day to expiration straddle on last Wednesday’s Fed day was no normal ODTE. We might call this straddle a OTTD straddle. Zero theta to decision. The Fed decision isn’t just a date on the calendar. It’s a specific time of day on that date. It’s not like NFP which comes out before the market opens. It’s not like NVDA earnings, which come out after the close. Powell and his Fed teammates have decided they want to give us the goods during the trading day and on Fed days, “Ain't nothing going on but the rent” becomes “Ain't nothing going on pre-event.” I discuss the unique behavior of intraday option pricing on FOMC day and also how to think about the VIX floor as the US election comes into closer view. I hope you enjoy and find this useful.
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Most of the discussions on the Alpha Exchange podcast consist of guests sharing views on market risk and portfolio construction. To be sure that leads the conversations down the path of monetary policy, positioning, inflation and growth. There’s a great deal of consideration around the price of optionality and the correlation of assets.
But what about insights on the nitty gritty of getting into option trades, being a liquidity provider to the Street and then risk managing those positions? Enter, Kris Abdelmessih, who spent well more than a decade doing just that. Now the author of the Moontower Substack and the founder of Moontower.ai, Kris looks back at his time on the market making front, starting with his formative experience in the renowned Susquehanna training program and ultimately trading volatility at Parallax. We talk about how he sought micro-edge by maintaining sell-side relationships, getting into positions as cleanly as possible and then having a dispassionate process for unwinding trades for which the vol profile was no longer suitable to own.
We also gain his insights on perils of trading off-the-run ETFs like those on natural gas and crude oil, with the April 2020 meltdown in the latter, an important case study. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Kris Abdelmessih.
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“Elections have consequences”. So said former US President Barack Obama. He probably didn’t have our trusty fear gauge, the VIX, in mind, but he may as well have. We are one day away from the US presidential debate. I am not sure this one can deliver the same fireworks that resulted from June 27th. It may devolve into a food fight, with each side hoping to land a definitive blow. What I’ve learned about election risk with regard to derivatives through events like Brexit, the 2016 and 2020 US elections and certainly this one as well is that the clearing price for volatility is impacted by a decline in the willingness and ability to supply it to the market. The result, a VIX stuck at a reasonably high level. I hope you find this discussion enjoyable and useful.
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Three hundred odd years ago, Sir Isaac Newton told us that “no great discovery was ever made without a bold guess.” My sense is he didn’t have the order book in Emini futures in mind, but his words do translate well to our world of financial instruments. In this short pod, I revisit the events of August 5th, a day when prices normally well discovered went dark. The implications are real and we ought to learn from this short-lived but real episode of instability. As we approach the “4 E’s” – employment, earnings, the election and the easing cycle – there’s a good deal to consider with respect to playing defense in markets. I hope you find this interesting and useful.
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Now the Chief Market Strategist at StoneX, Kathryn Rooney Vera comes from humble beginnings. As a teenager she cleaned houses in order to contribute to her family’s finances. In college, she changed her major to finance from liberal arts, seeing a more direct path to a well-compensated career. She would ultimately settle into the study of economics, a craft she continues to refine today in support of colleagues and clients at StoneX.
Our discussion surveys the process Kathyrn uses to find value in markets. She focuses on forecasting growth and inflation, the Fed’s response to these variables and the construction of trades that will capitalize on them. We review some of the recent cross-asset volatility and the role that positioning played. Kathryn rightly suggested that clients utilize protective option strategies in the period prior to August 5th.
She has also seen value in curve steepeners, embedding a little bit of the Sahm Rule notion that the Fed may find itself behind the curve. Lastly, she sees a favorable setup in the utilities sector, providing both the traditional defensive property through its linkage to rates as well as embedding an AI play that can empower it should the boom continue.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Kathryn Rooney Vera. -
When an accident occurs, the insurance claims adjuster produces a report. What does said report tell us? The yen’s largely one way path lower took a dramatic turn that saw it rally by roughly 9% over just 3 weeks. The pricing fallout was everywhere – in curves, credit, correlation, convexity and carry. That’s a bunch of C’s, isn’t it. The cause of chaos: crowding. When markets misbehave, it’s natural to jointly evaluate two factors: the combination of “new news” and the “setup” going in. Over the course of this short podcast, I share some thoughts on this recent risk flare-up and what it tells us about market fragility. I hope you find it interesting and useful.
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Vineer Bhansali was recently among a small group of athletes who achieved the unthinkable, a 135 mile run in scorching heat, wind gusts and rain, all while traversing both the lowest and highest elevation points in North America. The Badwater 135 is considered the most difficult Ultra Marathon, an undertaking in which a guiding philosophy is, simply, “don’t die”.
As the CIO of LongTail Alpha, Vineer’s investment philosophy is also not to die – or, translated to markets – don’t get forced out at the wrong time. And in this context, he makes substantial use of derivatives, instruments that protect against the extreme events that markets all too often confront. Our conversation is a review of the August 5th risk event, exploring its causes and consequences. Unsurprisingly, Vineer sees the overconsumption of the Yen carry trade as a primary catalyst and he details the many ways in which printed, essentially free Yen made their way into risk assets of all shapes and sizes. He details how his firm navigated the flare-up, looking to trade VIX at incredibly elevated levels before the open.
With a view that the market price of insurance has come back to Earth too fast and with concerns that the recent risk-off may just be an appetizer for a larger unwind to come, Vineer argues that embracing insurance strategies is an important part of a long-term strategic portfolio plan. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Vineer Bhansali. -
Even if very short-lived, market vol episodes as protracted as that of Monday August 5th, demand our attention. In seeking some understanding of the why of successive 10% NKY moves and a 65 pre-open handle on the VIX, it was a pleasure to welcome Oliver Brennan to the Alpha Exchange. An FX vol strategist at BNP, Oliver brings theoretical training in physics to the related but also very different world of option pricing. In setting up the discussion, we first explore a series of past FX vol episodes including the Euro-Swiss break and CNH re-peg in 2015 and Brexit from the following year. At the heart of these events lie economic imbalances and Central Banks that get tested by the market to hold the line.
We shift to a discussion of the setup going into early August in the Japanese Yen. Always an investment currency because of its balance of payment profile, Oliver argues that carry trades had gotten especially extended as dollar/yen trended so consistently higher. Market participants were long calls and long carry, and the dealing community was especially exposed to an increase in both realized and implied vol. He notes the absence of corporate supply as well of Yen vol in this recent event, something that exacerbated the repricing. With the tails especially under-owned, the more than 6% sell-off in dollar/yen caught the market well off-sides.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Oliver Brennan.
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What a week in markets and one that should give us a lot to chew on with respect to how and why risk episodes materialize. There are certainly some conclusions at the ready and first and foremost is that vol is the only anti-fragile asset. In the trading action on Monday, August 5th, we see the reflexive nature of vol exposures and the manner in which asymmetric outcomes can result. In this short podcast, I share some of what’s on my mind in trying to uncover the “why” of these seismic moves. Out of this, you’ll hear some of my thoughts on product innovation and market liquidity structure. I hope you find it useful.
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With deep roots on the sell-side, serving in strategist roles at both Miller Tabak and BTIG, Dan Greenhaus is now Chief Strategist at Solus Asset Managment, a multi-billion dollar AuM firm with expertise in distressed and high yield investing. Our conversation considers economics in theory and practice, differentiating classic academic training from the role someone like Dan plays on a trading desk supporting clients, portfolio managers and an investment process.
Here, Dan shares the importance of understanding what’s in the price and details his efforts to evaluate consensus by talking to other strategists around the Street to understand baseline expectation. This is some part of what he describes as his role as blindside tackle at Solus, working to identify areas of macro uncertainty that may be under-appreciated.
We talk about the current state of the economy and the stance of Fed policy. On the latter, Dan argues that while the impact of tighter policy on slowing has been much less rapid than anticipated, it has worked. And while he’s successfully faded the repeated calls that the consumer was going to crack over the past two years, he now sees signs worth paying close attention to. He points to simple measures like weekly jobless claims and also puts stock in Visa’s recent earnings call in which weakness was cited across multiple spending categories.
Dan’s study of prior Fed easing cycles suggests that rate cuts have typically come too late to offset broad-based economic weakness. Will this time be different? Perhaps, given the strength of both household balance sheets and fiscal spending. But, as with everything in the realm of markets and investing, Dan properly asserts that we must approach forecasts with humility.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Dan Greenhaus. -
With early career roots in both equity derivatives and relative value fixed income, Lisa O’Connor is now the Co-CIO of Multi-Strategy Assets and Solutions at BlackRock. Here she oversees her team’s development and delivery of a long only, systematic asset allocation process on behalf of the firm’s clients.
Our discussion first considers some of the lessons Lisa has derived from market risk cycles. In reflecting on vol episodes, she asserts that markets become very focused on relative value during times of crisis. That is, in higher risk environments, there’s much greater differentiation across risk categories, as investors evaluate which assets can truly be defensive or at least weather the storm.
We talk next about the model portfolio process and the mix of quantitative and fundamental factors that drive the asset allocation decisions. In contemplating the role of duration as a portfolio ballast, Lisa is concerned about risk premia in the back-end of the curve as a function of fiscal deficits. Instead, she sees value in diversifiers like gold, especially as China is increasing its holdings. We also spend time on AI and the challenges of being too little or too heavily invested. In looking for evidence that the roaring capex cycle may have peaked, she is following emerging signs of spending discipline from hyper-scalers and tracking the reported ROIs from investment out 18 months.
Lastly, we talk about the Fed easing cycle and its potentially positive implications for the market pricing of equities with more balance sheet leverage.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Lisa O’Connor. -
“Walking on a tightrope” is an idiom that conjures the notion of danger – of exceptionally little margin of safety and of particularly significantconsequences should things not go as planned. Markets feel this way - asset prices are full, Sharpe ratios high, correlations low, political polarization intensifying.
In this discussion, we review the recent role of correlation in breaking the more than 500 day streak over which the S&P 500 failed to move down by 2% in one day. We also talk about out the highly unusual VIX curve, with some portions of it in contango and others in backwardation.
Hope you enjoy it and find it useful. -
If smoothing returns is the feature not bug of private equity and credit, what strategy fully embraces the virtue of honest mark to market risk? What strategy highlights price shocks and the resulting level at which a portfolio could be unwound in a hurry as the basis of thinking about its efficacy? In this short podcast, I make the case that exposure to vol – to the anti-fragile - is going to be a part of this strategy. That is, long exposure to options-based insurance.
I hope you enjoy and find this useful. As always, I appreciate your feedback. -
A Wall Street economist who served institutional clients at both Lehman Brothers and Bank of America, Michelle Meyer, transitioned to Mastercard two and a half years ago, now serving as the firm’s Chief Economist and Head of the Mastercard Economics Institute. I had the opportunity to catch up with Michelle back in May and while much has of course happened in the world since, there are some valuable insights shared in our discussion.
We first survey the similarities and differences in her new role at Mastercard versus the traditional sell-side economics role in which she served. Here, she says that in terms of process, markets were formerly the output but are now more of an input that informs her thinking on longer horizon economic trends and their implications. The audience, of course, is different as well, and hedge funds eager for insights on the most recent econ data release are not the priority they once were.
We spend the bulk of our conversation on the vast and rich data set of transactions being generated by Mastercard in real time and around the globe. Michelle and team harness this anonymized data to better understand consumer trends – in travel, in good versus services, across geographies, even across zip codes. On this last part, we talk about two “hyper-local” surges in demand captured by the data – the Swift Lift coming from Taylor Swift concerts and the increased demand along the April solar eclipse line of totality. Really fascinating data. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my discussion with Michelle Meyer.
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