Episódios
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Best week in a long time - markets popping!
Cats and Dogs - all anyone can talk about these days - DogCat Bounce anyone?
More back to work directives ....
Apple disappointing again.
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Warm Up
- Best week in a long time - markets popping!
- Cats and Dogs - all anyone can talk about these days - DogCat Bounce anyone?
- More back to work directives ....
- Apple disappointing again
- All of a sudden - Now the Biden-Harris administration
Market Update
- BIG week of central bank rate decisions
- Rotation - still a big item keeping markets in check
- Rates LOW - bond traders overconfident?
- Oil comes back after miserable 2 weeks
- TrumpCoin?
Central Banks
- The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated two-day meeting, which gets underway Tuesday, is poised to take center stage.
- Elsewhere, Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting on Wednesday.
- The Bank of England, Norway’s Norges Bank and South Africa’s Reserve Bank will all follow on Thursday.
- Bank of Japan will provide its rate decision Friday
--- Markets getting a bit more volatile ahead of this Fed rate decision
BACK TO WORK!
- Amazon is instructing corporate staffers to spend five days a week in the office, CEO Andy Jassy wrote in a memo on Monday.
- The decision marks a significant shift from Amazon’s earlier return-to-work stance, which required corporate workers to be in the office at least three days a week. Now, the company is giving employees until Jan. 2 to start adhering to the new policy.
One Day Later
- Oracle provide some really nice earnings and guidance that the market loved... (Discussed last week)
- A day later:
--- Oracle now sees at least $66 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, around $1.5 billion more than analysts had expected.
---- Capital spending also will increase.
------The company plans for over $104 billion in revenue in the 2029 fiscal year.
- Odd that this was the next day
- Stock up 55% - 2nd best of tech companies just behind Nvdia
- Larry is now 2d richest person in the world behind Elon Musk
Economics
- August Retail Sales 0.1% vs -0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 1.1% from 1.0%
- August Retail Sales ex-auto 0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior unrevised at 0.4%
- August Industrial Production 0.8% vs 0.1% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to -0.9% from -0.6%
- August Capacity Utilization 78.0% vs 77.9% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 77.4% from 77.8%
--- Generally economy is speeding up again and looks like signs that manufacturing may be picking up
More Issues
- This is a bad apple
- The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a top banking regulator in the United States, said on Thursday it has issued an enforcement action against Wells Fargo due to deficiencies in its risk management practices.
- There will be no penalties - but company is still in the penalty box due to past issues
China Apple
- Online retailers in China have slashed the prices of Apple’s new iPhone 16 series ahead of its official release, as consumers in the world’s largest smartphone market hold out for the release of the US company’s first on-device artificial intelligence (AI) software.
- They are blaming this on the delay of any significant AI features
Intel Gets $$$
- The Biden-Harris Administration announced today that Intel Corporation has been awarded up to $3 bln in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act for the Secure Enclave program. The program is designed to expand the trusted manufacturing of leading-edge semiconductors for the U.S. government. -
August ends on the high side - (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)
Rate cut bets are in place
Market very skittish - September not the best month on average
VIX hits 25 last week
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Warm Up
- Another Rough Start to the month
- Apple Event - market was
- Last episode - ETF and Funds Education - lots of great comments on that!
- DEBATE TIME - right in the middle of our show! Someone needs to look at our schedule
Market Update
- August ends on the high side - (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)
- Rate cut bets are in place
- Market very skittish - September not the best month on average
- VIX hits 25 last week
- Yen Carry trade issue not fully resolved
- YIELD CURVE UPDATE
Big News
- Yield curve normalizes for 2/10's
- Yield curve is not normal - this is what happened in 2001 and 2008
Apple Event
- Apple introduces Apple Watch Series X with a new design.
- Largest most advanced display ever with 30% more screen area.
- The display is larger than the Apple Watch Ultra.
- Display will be 40% brighter.
- Watch will be 10% thinner than Apple Watch 9.
- Background noise will be surprised on phone calls.
- Smart Stack will add widgets whenever you need them.
- Adding translate application.
-Apple Watch can track menstrual cycles.
- Apple Watch can alert users to sleep apnea.
- Starts at $399.
- A few incremental updates otherwise and talk of AI to come - one day someday
More Apple
- Europe's top court on Tuesday ruled against Apple in the tech giant's 10-year court battle over its tax affairs in Ireland.
- The Commission in 2016 ordered Dublin to recover up to 13 billion euros ($14.4 billion) in back taxes from Apple, at the time saying that the tech company had received "illegal" tax benefits from Ireland over the course of two decades.
- So is this final this time?
- How is this possible anyway - Ireland granted tax benefits for the purpose of benefiting jobs etc....
Apple Competition
- Huawei's tri-fold phone receives over 4 mln pre-orders ($2,800 per)
- Have you seen this?
- VERY COOL device
Palantir
- Palantir Technologies hits best levels since early 2021 following inclusion in S&P 500
- +15% on the news
Dell
- Dell also is added to the S&P 500
- Etsy and American Airlines out
Tech - Oracle Earnings
- Oracle beats on some metrics and has some great outlook
- Missed on EPS
- Partnering with Amazon
- The company said Oracle Database is thriving, and the multi-cloud agreements it has with Microsoft, Google, and now AWS make it easier for its customers to run their Oracle Databases in the cloud.
- Stock at ATH
NVDA
- WORST DAY EVER for a stock
- Slide last week took at $300 BILLION on market value in one day.
- New DOJ probe in anti-trust case
- The agency is asking questions about whether Nvidia makes it harder to switch to other suppliers of AI chips.
- Nvidia has over 80% of the market for data center AI chips, according to industry estimates.
Best Buy
- People are buying...
- Raising full year guidance
- Comparable sales declined 2.3% during the quarter, compared with a 6.2% decline a year earlier.
--- It is all about the expectations...
Glasses - Again?
- Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon told CNBC the chip designer is working with Samsung and Google to explore a mixed-reality set of glasses linked to a smartphone
- Last year, Google, Samsung and Qualcomm struck a partnership to develop mixed-reality technology.
- This is supposed to be a smaller version of what is out the... -
Estão a faltar episódios?
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A show dedicated to the many questions of our listeners.
We focus on ETFs and Mutual Funds, contrasting and comparing the differences.
Financial Literacy is not just one month a year!
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Talking Financial Literacy
We are going to discuss details of what an ETF is and the differences from those investment vehicles and mutual funds.
ETFs are investment funds that trade on stock exchanges, holding a diversified portfolio.
ETFs offer instant diversification by allowing investors to buy a small slice of a variety of assets.
ETFs trade like stocks, with prices fluctuating throughout the trading day.
Popular for their diversification, lower costs, trading flexibility, and tax efficiency.
Types of ETFs include stock, bond, commodity, international, sector/thematic, and inverse/leveraged ETFs.
Downsides include market risk, tracking errors, liquidity issues, and the complexity of specialized ETFs.
Key differences with mutual funds include trading mechanisms, costs, management styles, and tax implications.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Closest to The Pin for - United Healthcare (UNH)
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
JCD Score ()
See this week’s stock picks HERE
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Path Change - Once the air clears, how will markets react?
Cracking down on excessive "junk" fees
Cracking down on Unfree Speech?
Jackson Hole - big update about "The Path"
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Warm Up
-Cracking down on excessive "junk" fees
- Cracking down on Unfree Speech?
- Jackson Hole - big update about "The Path"
- Intel is nervous
Market Update
- Lower End Consumers Fueling Spend
- Big news this week - NVDA earnings
- Rotation ? Consumers are still spending (Discounters loving it!)
- Taxing Unrealized Gains?
Political rhetoric
- Taxing Unrealized gains - questions coming in
--- Realize this is for the ultra-rich and the potential to get this passed is not high
- BUT - Harris campaign wants to see about higher taxes - which are needed, but not a good thing
----- How else are we going to pay back this mountain of debt?
Jackson Hole
- Time to Change the Path of Rates
- Powell was clear and they are now pricing in a 100% probability of a 0.25% rate cut for September
- 0.50% will probably scare some people - so 0.25% is plan
- Odd ahead of election - but maybe Powell realizes he is behind the curve
Target
- Against the odds?
- Target beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations on Wednesday.
- Sales at the discounter grew as shoppers made more visits to Target’s stores and website and bought more discretionary items like clothing.
- Yet, the retailer struck a cautious note, saying it expects comparable sales for the full year to be in the lower range of its guidance.
- Target raised its profit guidance, however, saying it expects adjusted earnings per share to range from $9 to $9.70, up from the previous range of $8.60 and $9.60.
- Investors loved it! Stock moved from $135 - $169 on the news (back to $158)
---- Walmart near ATH and Ross Stores stock at ATH
SpaceX - Boeing
- So embarrassing for Boeing...
- Starliner is going to come back - Unmanned...
- Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, will return to Earth on a SpaceX vehicle early next year
Telegram
- Telegram messaging app CEO Durov arrested in France
- Pavel Durov, the Russian-born billionaire founder and owner of the Telegram messaging app, was arrested at Le Bourget airport outside Paris shortly after landing on a private jet late on Saturday and placed in custody.
- Free speech under fire? Or is this more than just a Twitter alternative.
- Supposedly 900M Daily Active users???
Junk Fees
- FTC trying to crack down on "junk fees"
- Last year, 15% of restaurant owners added surcharges or fees to checks because of higher costs, according to the National Restaurant Association
- Inflation fee, credit card fee, health-care fee, house fee
- Restaurants are fighting back as they want the fees to add to bottom line and increase profitability and benefit staff.
- Makes the entire idea of going out to eat an expensive proposition.
What is this?
- Microsoft said Friday it will hold a conference in September for cybersecurity firms to discuss ways the industry can evolve following a faulty CrowdStrike software update that caused millions of Windows computers to crash in July.
- Microsoft will meet with CrowdStrike and other security companies at its campus in Redmond, Washington, on Sept. 10 to discuss how to prevent similar issues in the future
--- Wasn't this already something that was not supposed to happen?
- The executive said participants at the Windows Endpoint Security Ecosystem Summit will explore the possibility of having applications rely more on a part of Windows called user mode instead of the more privileged kernel mode.
- Software from CrowdStrike Check Point, -
Jackson Hole ECO Confab (this week)
Live Nation is in trouble
Icahn get a slap on the wrist
Gold - ripping - where to next?
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Warm Up
- Jackson Hole ECO Confab (this week)
- Live Nation is in trouble
- Icahn get a slap on the wrist
- Gold - ripping - where to next?
- Price Controls - 3rd Rail?
Market Update
- Nearing all-time highs again - Buy the Dips!
- Yields under 4% on 10-Year - Yen still in control
- Back to Overbought again - still thinking not out of the woods
- Lowe's and Home Depot Outlook - POOR (But stocks are up)
Jackson Hole
- Aristocrats line up to speak
- Big doings as often a platform for Fed and other central bankers to make policy adjustments
- Powell scheduled to speak at 10am Friday
--- With all of the latest data and market push - what will he do??
- Before that - Wednesday we will see the July FOMC minutes
GOLDDDDDDDD
- Gold hit all-time high last Friday ($2,509.65) !!!!NOW $2,563!!!!!
- WHY? Discussion ranges from Fed Reserve, Election, Middle East, India Buying....
- Gold has been a better GOLD then Bitcoin - just saying...
Monopoly - Finally!
- Ten Additional States Join Justice Department’s Suit Against Live Nation-Ticketmaster for Monopolizing Markets Across the Live Concert Industry
- Today, the Attorneys General of Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah and Vermont joined a civil antitrust lawsuit filed by the Justice Department, 29 other states and the District of Columbia against Live Nation-Ticketmaster for monopolization and other unlawful conduct in violation of Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act.
- Stock does not seem to care - or believe anything adverse will happen
AMD buys ZT Systems
- $4.9 Billion
- What is ZT Systems? The company engages in full rack deployment -- a block filled with servers, storage, switches, etc. -- for hyperscale data centers. ZT also commands a data center infrastructure manufacturing business, for which AMD announced it would seek out a strategic partner to offload this part of the company.
- Clearly the company does not have a CHIP or infrastructure ready for a major AI play at this time.
Carl Ichan - Hand Slap
- Carl Icahn and his publicly traded company Icahn Enterprises settled with the SEC over allegedly failing to disclose billions worth in stock-backed borrowing.
- Icahn and IELP will pay a combined $2 million in fines, without admitting or denying wrongdoing, over the failure to disclose as much as $5 billion in margin loans that were backed by Icahn’s stake in the company.
- Icahn, a well-known activist investor, had been facing pressure from another activist short seller in 2023. (Hindenburg which is still short the shares)
Circle K 11?
- Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard (Circle K) has sounded out Japan's Seven & i (7-Eleven) about a potential takeover, the two companies said on Monday, making the 7-Eleven owner the largest-ever Japanese target of a foreign buyout.
- While the value of the offer has not been disclosed, the bid is the latest example of the growing interest in Japanese companies by Western investors, who have been drawn by the country's push for better governance.
- News of the deal sent shares of Seven & i surging by almost 23% in Tokyo
Chicken and the Egg
- Chicken prices are going up
- Perdue Foods is recalling more than 167,000 pounds of frozen chicken nuggets and tenders after some customers reported finding metal wire embedded in the products.
- According to Perdue and the U.S. Agriculture Department’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, the recall covers select lots of three product... -
Cut taxes on SS and Tips?President decides rates?China - inflation ticking upYEN volatility - NOT OVERPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterDONATIONS ?Warm Up- Cut taxes on SS and Tips?- President decides rates?- China - inflation ticking up- YEN volatility - NOT OVER- Announcing the WINNER for the UNH CTPMarket Update- CRISIS AVERTED- August doldrums - but big week of Eco Data- Market Punishing earnings misses - more than usual- Same old = going back to the Mega-Cap trade while pulling other sectors down- PPI out - changing directionCrisis Averted- Monday (last) Yen plunge then pick up - Come on- Japan markets fell 12% then rallied 10% - intervention anyone?--- Clearly there is an invisible hand at work here---- Plus Japan officials waled back their "hawkish" comments---- 17 years of ZERO or NEGATIVE rates, markets don't want to give that up--- Do you know why this is all happy pappy now? How did they resolve the 2 day crisis? (Hint - $$$$)- Japanese markets have recovered ALL of the losses since last Monday - ALLVolume/Vacations - August- Volumes are down across the board. Aside from a couple of days when markets moved lower- Will probably continue to see slow markets (unless some outside shock) through Labor Day- However - big week of ECO data- - CPI, PPI, UMich, Import/Export prices, Retail Sales (no one has a clue what the trajectory is from here)Month to DateMTDIWNiShs Russell 2000 Value ETF-7.87%IWMiShs Russell 2000 ETF-7.10%IWOiShs Russell 2000 Grwth ETF-6.15%IWDiShs Russell 1000 Val ETF-2.45%IWBiShs Russell 1000 ETF-1.68%IWFiShs Russell 1000 Gwth ETF-1.00%Really?- Former President Donald Trump this week repeated his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors.- The Republican nominee called for "no tax for seniors on Social Security" during a "Fox & Friends" interview Wednesday- Of course Harris/Walz also want to cut taxes on SS now...***** Some "experts" say that this will hurt the solvency of SS and Medicare even more - now expected to run out in 2035--- Oh - let's eliminate taxes on TIPS---- The Waiters & waitresses workforce and tipped in service industry are about 4 Million people (1% of populationWhere do we stand on this..- Presidents having a direct say - or vote - on Fed decisions?Switcher-rooo- Chipotle Mexican Grill announces that Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO has accepted the role as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Starbucks (SBUX) and will be leaving the Company effective August 31, 2024- -On the news, SBUX up 17% and CMG down 10%China- China's consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday.- Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago, versus 0.2% in June.- Is this good news or bad?PPI- July Core PPI 0.0% vs. 0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.3% from 0.4%-- Disinflation is speeding up - nearing DEFLATION concerns- Tomorrow - CPIAnother one...- Home Depot on Tuesday topped quarterly expectations, but cautioned that sales will be weaker than expected in the back half of the year as high interest rates and consumer uncertainty dampen demand.- The home improvement retailer said it now expects full-year comparable sales to decline by 3% to 4% compared to the prior fiscal year. It had previously expected comparable sales, a metric that takes out the impact of store openings and closures and other one-time factors,
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Japan stocks PLUNGE!
Tech stocks in correction - nearing bear market.
What does the crystal ball tell us? Where is the PPP?
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Warm Up
- OMG - Did you see that?
- Fear - blood in the streets
- Looking for someone to blame for the selloff
- Boeing news....Finally
Market Update
- RISK off - all risk assets (aside from bonds) down in August
- Bitcoin - CRUSHED - as with other cryptos - so much for safe-haven
- 13:1 Day Decliners to Advancers (that is pretty significant.
- Records broken - Worst day in 50 years for one stock
Where is the PPP?
- Now we are hearing about an emergency cut - looking for a 0.75% cut (Jeremy Seigel)
- Investors looking for a save - Plunge Protection Team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Seems like Tuesday in Japan - PPP to the rescue - +10%
Bitcoin and ETH
- Seriously - takes it on the chin down 15% with global market sell-off
- What happened to it being a safe-haven - all but discounted at this point....
Japan's first increase in decades
- Actually, last increase was 2017 - so 17 YEARS OF LOW RATES
- The Widowmaker trade is finally working - but for how long?
- Japan's major stock market - YEN Up 11% since 7/11/2024 and the Nikkei is down 23% (28% at low on Monday) since 7/11/2024
- Carry-Trade (borrow Yen at low rate and reinvest) BLOWING UP
- WORST day for Japan's markets since Black Monday in 1987
--- The loss of 4,451.28 points on the index was also the largest in terms of points in its entire history.
-=-=-=-= This is not the first time Japan's central bank has caused this type of situation. Their entire investing and monetary process is very dangerous.
-=-=-=-=- - Japan's Nikkei had the best day since 2008 on Tuesday
Repercussions
- Stocks around the world got hammered - worrying about YEN unwind as well as the earnings and outlook from Tech
- Kospi -8% down Monday
- World stocks off by 3%+
- UGLY moves and lots of trading opportunities
- $1 Trillion in market cap erased from Mega-Caps Monday (Mag7)
AND
- A sharp drop in U.S. stocks is provoking selling from volatility-sensitive funds, exacerbating a selloff
- Volatility control funds - systematic investment strategies that typically buy equities when markets are calm and sell when they grow turbulent have gorged on stocks as indexes soared to record highs in 2024
- More recently, they have begun selling, as worries over the economy and tech earnings rattle investors: volatility control funds have dumped about $83.6 billion of U.S. equity futures over the last two weeks
VIX
- SPIKES to 65 on Monday morning.... (Then comes down to about 36 on the close)
- Historical spike like that are interesting signs that it may be end of route (or getting close)
- - 80's for Pandemic and peak of Financial Crisis
---- Unbelievable move in 3 days that seems that most people were unprepared for
Economic Issues
- Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 in July, below the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000.
- The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021, triggering an economic rule on recessions.
- Health care again led, adding 55,000 to payrolls. Other notable gainers included construction (25,000), government (17,000), and transportation and warehousing (14,000).
- Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
Google loses Anti-Trust
- Google’s payments to make its search engine the default on smartphone web browsers violates US antitrust law, a federal judge ruled Monday, -
New Study - Power and AI
Apple releases new AI (first version)
Bitcoin - Not Buying the Electoral Rhetoric
Correction territory for many tech names
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Warm Up
- NEW CTP ANNOUNCED!
- Jailtime? Short Seller targeted
- The EXCITING Summer Olympics
- Last vote - never again!
Market Update
- New Study - Power and AI
- Apple releases new AI (first version)
- Bitcoin - Not Buying the Electoral Rhetoric
- Correction territory for many of the tech names....
- Microsoft Earnings...
Crowdstrike Glitch
- 2nd shoe is dropping
- Lawsuits are on the way - hitting Crowdstrike and Microsoft
- Several announced this week.....
- CRWD still falling - Down 40% since before the "glitch"
Microsoft
- Reports Q4 (Jun) earnings of $2.95 per share, $0.01 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.94; revenues rose 15.2% year/year to $64.73 bln vs the $64.38 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of +29%, +30% constant currency vs +30-31% CC prior guidance.
- Guides next quarter is below consensus
- Stock getting hit - down 7% initially, but comes back a bit in after-hours
AMD
- Better than feared - stock up after hours nicely
Intel
- cutting 1000's of jobs - they are not a contender at all
Citron Boss
- The activist short seller Andrew Left surrendered in Los Angeles on Monday to face federal criminal securities fraud charges, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office there said. (Like he was in jail until bail was paid!)
- $10M Bail
- Andrew Left - is accused of using his public platform, which included social media posts on X and appearances on CNBC, to make illegal profits of at least $16 million by manipulating stock market activity and trading in a way that was contrary to the positions he publicly purported to take.
- Left is also being sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which in a civil complaint filed last week in LA federal court accused him and Citron of “engaging in a $20 million multi-year scheme to defraud followers by “publishing false and misleading statements regarding his supposed stock trading recommendations.”
- “Left bragged to colleagues that some of these statements [he made] were especially effective at inducing retail investors to trade based on his recommendations and said that it was like taking ‘candy from a baby,’” the SEC alleges in that lawsuit.
Big Boys - Tuesday Update
- NVDA (-6.5%) extends to session lows, as AI group comes under pressure ahead of key earnings reports and AI capex guides... other AI movers of note include ARM -6%, VRT -6%, SMCI -5.5%, QCOM -4%, MU -3%, SMH -3%
Eurozone
- The euro zone's economy grew by more than expected in the second quarter of 2024, flash figures from the European Union's statistics office showed Tuesday.
- The zone's gross domestic product rose by 0.3% in the three months to the end of June compared to the previous quarter, the data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2% increase on a quarterly basis.
McDonald's Earnings
- McDonald’s on Monday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that missed analysts’ expectations as same-store sales declined across every division.
- Earnings per share: $2.97 adjusted vs. $3.07 expected
- Revenue: $6.49 billion vs. $6.61 billion expected
- “At the end of the day, we expect customers will continue to feel the pinch of the economy and a higher cost of living for at least the next several quarters in this very competitive landscape,” McDonald’s U.S. President Joe Erlinger said
- Stock - Went up
- Big plan ????? Bring back the Value Meal (How does that actually help?) -
DJIA - FAILED - worst week in agesHuge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident)Dangerous market - running on emotionsTesla Earnings are out...PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterChatroom still a work in progress it appearsWarm Up- Politics Goes off the rails - Biden out (Failed)- Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident)- Dangerous market - running on emotionsMarket Update- DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages - massive losses as UNH fails to keep up (accounted for 500+ points of that big rally in July)- Market broadened out finally - then the mega-caps started to come in and market was crushed -- Tesla Earnings are out - other tech names tooNeed a new CTPMarket Emotions- Now that we are in the throws of the election cycle - dangerous market- Running on emotion - and you can see that we levels (round like futures markets @ES - 5,600 and @NQ 20,000 levels as battle lines)- People will think that one or other candidate is good or bad and will invest accordingly (usually without facts)- Biden dropping out has interesting impact - Now we have one candidate that we really do not know actual policy and track record. Also unknown VP ...Crowdstrike Glitch- Anything on your end a problem?- Some minor trading issues with Schwab for a minute on Friday- Airlines - still seem to be having issues- Bigger issues when relying on single company?- Friday and over weekend MSFT said that they restored a majority of services- Hackers are already taking advantage of situation and Crowdstike out with warnings (some firms may get phished into beleiving that there is a fix and it is actually a hack)Delta Offers Apologies+- CEO Ed Bastian offered Freq flyer miles to travelers that were stuck due to Crowdstrike "glitch"- 800 flights were cancelled Sunday (22% of flights)- The airline was offering flight attendants extra pay to pick up shifts- WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? (Crowdstike and passengers)Tech - Wiz Walks- $23 billion - they say NO THANKS- Wiz - 4 year old start up that makes security tools to protect data centers- May valuation was $12 billion- Company wants to go the IPO routeElection- Sooooo - thoughts on the Biden dropout? (Via letter and Social Media - is that weird?)- Trump Trade fade?- Vance tough on anything foreign? (USA First)- Anyone else aside from Harris?Bank Earnings- Looking back - not much to be upset about - so that is good- Rate expectations are for September (Dec more likely)- Yield curve has steepened (good for profit margin of banks)- Fed continues to be dovish- Trump expectations of reduced regulations?More Earnings- Google/Alphabet - Alphabet prelim Q2 $1.89 vs $1.84 FactSet Consensus; revs $84.74 bln vs $84.22 bln FactSet Consensus--- Margin 32% vs 29& a year ago (Stock initially up then tuend lower on lower advert revenue and other AI comments)- Tesla Earnings - Tesla prelim Q2 $0.52 vs $0.61 FactSet Consensus; revs $25.5 bln vs $24.38 bln FactSet Consensus-- Tesla prelim: GAAP gross margin of 18.0%, down 23 bps yr/yr---- Tesla prelim: reiterates that in 2024, its vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than growth rate achieved in 2023 (Stock down 5%)- Visa: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $2.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $2.42; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $8.9 bln vs the $8.92 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock down 10%)Warren- Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its gigantic Bank of America holding for the first time in four and a half years following the bank's strong 2024 run.
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Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit)
Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment)
KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020
Earnings growth expected to continue....
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Chatroom should be back up and running....
Warm Up
- Assassination Attempts = Market Positive (for US Markets ONLY)
- ALL TIME HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD - SMALL CAPS ON A BENDER
- Disinflation OUT - Deflation IN
- College athletes - Min Wage?
Market Update
- Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit)
- Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment)
- KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020
- Earnings growth expected to continue....
- Gold at ATH - Bitcoin moving - Risk on or Worries about the future?
OH MY
- Small Caps +10% MTD , 11% YTD (Tom Lee calling for 40% move over next 12 weeks...)
- Value over Growth
- Real Estate - Builders - WOW!
--- Jump from 50 to 400+ 52 Week Highs today
----- Money coming out of Big boys - rotating and it is uneven pull/push
- KRE - Regional banks up 14% this month
----- DJIA UP BIG AGAIN - Rates holding at lower end of the range
Post Assassination Attempt (Monday Markets)
- European Markets RED across the board
- Russian Market GREEN
- China RED
- Japan RED
- US Markets GREEN
- Bitcoin and Ether - GREEN
Powell on Monday
- Markets came in as Powell -ONCE AGAIN - repeated the same mantra of not done - but looking to cut before we reach 2%
-B.O.R.I.N.G.
Trump Media
- DJT Stock: Trump Media shares surged over 50% in premarket trading Monday following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
- Was up 30% by end of day on Monday
China Economic Update
- China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7% year on year, missing expectations of a 5.1% growth, according to a Reuters poll.
- Retail sales also missed expectations, rising by 2% year-on-year in June, versus the 3.3% forecast.
- Industrial production beat expectations up by 5.3% in June from a year ago, above the forecast 5% increase.
- Urban fixed asset investment for the first six months of the year rose by 3.9%, matching expectations.
- China's GDP grew by 5.3% year on- year in the first quarter.
KRI Indicator
- Hitting +6 and that has not happened since June 2020
- First time over +5 since Dec 2023 (pulled back a few days later, then continued its upward trajectory
- Rolled over a bit a few days later then continued its upward trajectory (BULL MARKET)
Any Surprise? Retail....
- Macy's -14.2% is sharply lower after terminating M&A talks with Arkhouse Mgmt and Brigade Capital
- Burberry, a luxury brand which trades in London, also issued a profit warning and named a new CEO.
- These developments are leading to weakness in some department store names: JWN -3%, KSS -2.7%, DDS -2.3%.
- Consumer is starting to fight back?????
DEFLATION?
- CPI was NEGATIVE MoM
- PPI was hot and cold - depending on what number you looked at
Deflation
CPI Chart
Finally!
- Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook "Bill" Hwang was convicted of fraud and other charges by a jury in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday at a criminal trial in which prosecutors accused him of market manipulation ahead of the 2021 collapse of his $36 billion private investment firm.
- The trial centered on the implosion of Hwang's family office Archegos, -
Shark Week (Market Style) - Whale Gorging - Big Teeth - Big AppetitesEarnings season coming upBiden staying in the race (for now)Complacency nearing a tipping point.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- Shark Week - Whale Gorging - Big Teeth - Big Appetites- Earnings season coming up- Biden staying in the race- Market Moves - the inside track- NEW - ALL ABOUT BIDEN ISSSUESMarket Update- Big Swings - Massive Rotation- Employment Report for June- Market Moves - the inside track- Big Box - down to a fewFed First- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Q&A with Senate Banking Committee: The "likely next direction" of policy will be a loosening of policy; rate hike not likelyEmployment Reports- Private payroll growth edged lower in June, according to a report Wednesday from ADP that indicates a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market.- Companies added 150,000 jobs for the month, below the upwardly revised 157,000 in May and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 160,000. The total was the lowest monthly gain since January.- BLS Official saw Unemp rate tick up to 4.1%-Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June- Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction.The Inside Track Lowdown-- People asking me "When will this end? It is crazy!"- This week we will be treated to CPI and PPI.- As it stands, Powell made comments after the close on July 3rd that they were not satisfied with the rate of change related to inflation. There is more work to be done he said. But, the markets don't really care about that - they see a cut in September and December.- The general direction of the markets - or path of least resistance appears to be up.- Investors are gorging themselves on AI related names.- The big boys (and girls) of the market are taking in big money - helping to keep markets buoyed.- - It has the look and feel of great white sharks in a ravenous feeding frenzy over a rotting whale corpse.- Full Disclosure - we hold a good number of these names in our core equity allocation. Microsoft, Nvidia, SMCI, Google (Alphabet), Meta (Facebook) and several more.- Monday moves - the DJIA was up big to start the day and at the lunchtime break was in the red. The money clearly flowed out of DJIA and into the NASDAQ100 again. So, this is how it will be for a while, or until something changes. And, that may very well be the next batch of earnings through the season that begins on this coming Friday with the major financial names.Ford- Ford truck sales, which includes pickups and vans, totaled 308,920 vehicles during the period, the company's best second-quarter performance for the category since 2019, Ford said. Sales in its F-Series totaled 199,463 vehicles.- Sales of Ford electric vehicles totaled 23,957 during the second quarter, up 61%.- The automaker said its EVs, in particular the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, are drawing new customers to the company.- Stock is stuck in a rangeBoeing- Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge and pay a fine of $243.6 million to resolve a U.S. Justice Department investigation into two 737 MAX fatal crashes, the government said in a court filing on Sunday.- The plea deal, which requires a judge's approval, would brand the planemaker a convicted felon in connection with crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia over a five-month period in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people.- Smart - quick slap on the wrist and get it over with (for publicity sake)- As part of the deal, the planemaker agreed to spend at least $455 million over the next three years to...
-
Let them eat tech!
Meme stock mania may be dying down
Short week - July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 - closed - July 5?
How About those Florida Panthers?
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm Up
- Let them eat tech!
- Meme stock mania may be dying down
- Short week - July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 - closed - July 5?
- How About those Florida Panthers?
Market Update
- Heavily weighted toward 10 stocks - breath sucks
- Seeing slowdown in consumer confidence and holding steady on most economic reports
- Some concerns mounting about Russia
- Stress Tests - Anyone Surprised?
Russia Issues
- NATO wants to put a senior civilian official in Kyiv, Ukraine
- Market was a little concerned about this - as new broke, selling occurred (for about 5 minutes)
HA! Play with Fire
- Keith Gill, the investor known as "Roaring Kitty" who helped spur the meme stock mania of 2021, was sued by GameStop investors who said they lost money through his "pump-and-dump" scheme for the videogame retailer.
- A proposed class action accusing Gill of securities fraud was filed on Friday in the Brooklyn, New York federal court.
- Investors led by Martin Radev, who lives in the Las Vegas area, said Gill manipulated GameStop securities between May 13 and June 13 by quietly accumulating large quantities of stock and call options, and then dumping some holdings after emerging from a three-year social media hiatus.
More Kitty Hoo-Haa
- Shares of Chewy popped in the premarket trading Monday after a Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed meme stock trader "Roaring Kitty" took a stake in the pet food e-commerce retailer.
- The filing showed Keith Gill bought just over 9 million shares — amounting to a 6.6% stake in the company. That makes him the third-biggest Chewy shareholder, according to FactSet. Based on Friday's close, that stake is valued at more than $245 million.
- Stock was initially p 16% in premarket (that is after some wild swings last week)
---- Close DOWN 6% on the day after that initial pop
- This guy is up Ryan Cohen's butt pretty far..
Chipotle Split Update
- Trading near a post-split low
- Stock initially moved higher toward $68 then reverses hard over the past few sessions, trading near $60
- This is important as investors may not just run into split announcements after this performance.
---- Or people are finally agreeing with JCD on the lack of taste?
Boeing
- Boeing said Monday that it will buy back its struggling fuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems in an all-stock deal that the plane maker has said will improve safety and quality control.
- It said it agreed to pay $37.25 a share in Boeing stock for Spirit, giving the aerospace company an equity value of $4.7 billion. Including Spirit’s debt the deal has a transaction value of $8.3 billion Boeing said. Spirit’s shares closed Friday at $32.87 a share, giving it a market capitalization of about $3.8 billion.
---- MORE: U.S. prosecutors plan to seek a guilty plea from Boeing over a charge tied to two fatal crashes of 737 Max planes, attorneys for the victims' family members said Sunday, blasting a potential agreement as a "sweetheart deal."
- The DOJ said in May that it was reviewing whether Boeing violated a 2021 settlement that protected Boeing from federal charges. The company agreed to pay a $2.5 billion penalty for a conspiracy charge tied to the 2018 and 2019 crashes of its best-selling 737 Max planes, which killed all 346 people on the two flights.
OIL!
- Breaking out
-- Concerns over supply issues due to Houthi rebels droning Suez Canal
--- Hurricane season hitting early - EARLIEST Cat4 on record happening now! -
- Churn and Burn - RAMP UP - Rotation (Renting Space)- Long Stretch with limited volatility- Short Interest at MULTI year lows- NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minutePLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- Summer Spin Cycle- New flow shifting to election- Banks - Fed's Stress Test Results (Wednesday)- Last week of month and quarter!Market Update- Churn and Burn - RAMP UP - Rotation (Renting Space)- Long Stretch with limited volatility- Short Interest at MULTI year lows- NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minuteNext week is JULY 4th- Markets closing early (1PM) on Wednesday- Markets Closed on Thursday- Most people will take Friday off!Short Interest- Multi-Year low on S&P 500 and stocks- Hedge fund disclosures stopping some from shorting (after Meme stock craze)- Seems that no shorts helping to calm volatilityStock Market - Weird Facts- The S&P 500 has gone 377 days without a 2.05% sell-off. That's the longest stretch for the benchmark since the great financial crisis- The index hasn't experienced a gain of at least 2.15% in that time either- The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is considered by many investors as the de facto fear gauge on the Street. Last month, it hit its lowest level going back to November 2020. On Friday, it traded around 13, near historically low levels.- Complacency or Green-Light?Home Prices- Sales of previously owned homes are sitting at a 30-year low, and didn't move much in May as prices hit a new record and mortgage rates remain high.- Many reasons - but no place to go, high rates and high prices- IF more inventory comes on the market - possibly prices will come down (Last month inventories jumped 6.7%)- Median price of a home sold in May was $419,300More Homes- Sales of homes priced below $250,000 were lower than a year ago, while sales priced between $250,000 and $500,000 were up just 1%. Sales priced between $750,000 and $1 million were 13% higher, and sales priced over $1 million were up nearly 23%.- Cash is still king, accounting for 28% of sales.- First-time buyers are hanging in at 31% of sales, up from 28% the year before.MORE HOUSING- April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 7.2% vs. 6.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 7.5% from 7.4%ERC Credit DENIED- The IRS will deny billions of dollars' worth of claims for a pandemic-era tax break while working to process lower-risk filings, the agency said on Thursday afternoon.- These are what you heard on commercials for a while...- After investigating more than 1 million claims worth roughly $86 billion, the IRS said in the release that it identified 10% to 20% of the highest-risk filings, and "tens of thousands" will be rejected in the coming weeks, according to the agency. Another 60% to 70% of claims with an "unacceptable level of risk" will be further examined, the IRS said.- During the ERC review period, the agency processed 28,000 claims received before September 2023 worth $2.2 billion and disallowed more than 14,000 claims worth $1 billion, according to the release.TESLA- Headcount reduction continues- 14% of workforce has been slashed this year-- The latest figure is not from precise payroll data, but from the number of people who are on Tesla's "everybody" email distribution list as of June 17- Bloomberg reporting that Telsa looming for 20% total headcount cut in 2023 to benefit profitability after company reached inefficiency levels of 25% -30%Musk - Need to know- How many children did Elon father?Banks- Fed Stress Tests on Wednesday (all should pass)- U.S. bank regulators said four major banks had shortcomings in their "...
-
Apple AI - Disappoints (or confuses)
NVDA - passes AAPL market cap
Treasury yields moving within a range
Beanstalk - what is that story again?
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NO SHOW NET WEEK - OUT ON BIZ FOR A FEW DAYS
Warm Up
- Apple AI - Disappoints (or confuses) - for a minute
- NVDA - passes AAPL market cap
- Treasury yields moving within a range
- Beanstalk - what is that story again?
- Fed in play
Market Update
- Large Caps dominate June (thus far) - Small-caps out of favor
- Buyers are hungry - any dip is bought
- Economic confusion - Jobs report
- NVDA - 10:1 completed (now what?)
Apple WWDC - Pins and Needles
- Features will go beyond artificial intelligence to personal intelligence.
- Will protect privacy at every step.
Capabilities:
- Will enable iPhone to create language and images.Language understanding will be natural.
- New writing tools can summarize text when you are working on a blog post.
- Users can create new emojis for conversation.
- Images can be created in three styles.
Actions:
- Will allow hundreds of "actions" such as "show me my photos from last week" or "show me the podcast my mom wanted me to listen to last week."
- Apple Intelligence is powered by large language models.
- Introduces Apple Private Cloud with personalized AI.
- Siri will be able to take AI enabled actions. It will allow for more natural language.
---- Market not impressed - was hoping for BIG AI announcement from Apple.
------ Stock down on this news - then POPS to ATH on Tuesday
Elon on Apple AI
- Elon Musk said he would ban Apple Inc. devices from his companies if OpenAI’s software is integrated into the products at the operating system level.
- The remarks followed a presentation Monday by Apple Inc., when it said that customers would have access to OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot through the Siri digital assistant. Apple plans to roll out the capabilities as part of a suite of new AI features later this year.
Jobs report
- May nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 (Briefing.com consensus 185,000).
- The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 249,000 from 237,000.
- April nonfarm payrolls revised to 165,000 from 175,000. March nonfarm payrolls revised to 310,000 from 315,000.
- May average hourly earnings were up 0.4%
- Unemployment rate moved up to 4%
--- YET - still HOPE for 1-2 rate cuts this year
OOPS
- Toyota - company has lost %15B market cap after false data found
- Japan's transport ministry found false data used to certify certain models a week ago on Monday.
- Other companies too - Toyota, Mazda, Suzuki, Yamaha
-- Companies falsifying data used in safety tests.
- Toyota chairman: "tested using methods that differ from the standards defined by the national authorities."
--- Collusion????
Gold - Short Supply?
- According to the World Gold Council - Gold hard to find
- New gold deposits are becoming harder to find around the world as many prospective areas have already been explored
- Gold Strategist: "I think the overwhelming story there is: after 10 years of rapid growth from around 2008, the mining industry is struggling to report sustained growth in production," said Reade.
- Bottom Line: "It's getting harder to find gold, permit it, finance it, and operate it,"
Game-Stop Already
- Shares tank 40% after another big run up - Keith Gill live stream
- Continues to post cryptic messages now that he is back
- Must be bored
Panic Buttons
- Retail giant Walmart says it is against putting panic buttons in stores - a move that the New York legislature wants to require under a new law aimed at keeping retail workers safe. -
Sinkholes formingMemes again - Huge MovesEconomy starting to stallFace Ripper moves into the closePLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterDONATE - Show 700 CampaignWarm Up- Sinkholes forming- Memes again - Huge Moves- Economy starting to stall- Announcing a NEW CTPMarket Update- Face Ripping - Last Friday- Software Stocks hammered- May finished in the green nicely- Oil Drooping- Roaring Kitty is backFace Rip- Stocks ramped on the last day of the month- 300 points in 10 minutes to finish the day on Friday- markets had a good month --- Large Cap Growth up 6% for the month- US real estate up 5%- Only area LataAm down for MaySinkhole Forming Again- MEGA Caps pulling market up - Primarily NVDA- Monday S&P 500 Flat - S&P Equal Weight -0.53%Best Buy Earnings- "Sluggish Demand"- Earnings per share: $1.20 vs. $1.08 expected Revenue: $8.85 billion vs. $8.96 billion expected- Best Buy has noticed a pullback in purchases of discretionary items as consumers manage higher costs because of inflation.- Shares soarSoftware stocks Soft- Salesforce plunges 20% after it posted weaker than expected revenue- The WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund, an exchange-traded fund that tracks cloud stocks, slid 5% this week, the sharpest decline since January. Paycom, GitLab, Confluent, Snowflake and ServiceNow all lost at least 10% of their value in the downdraft.- Dell PLUNGED - 20% too this weekEconomics- April Construction Spending -0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior -0.2%- May ISM Manufacturing Index 48.7 vs 49.6 Briefing.com consensus; prior 49.2- May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final 51.3 vs 50.9 prelim; prior 50.0Focus on Manufacturing (Briefing.com)- The May ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 48.7% (consensus 49.6%), down from 49.2% in April. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the May reading suggests there was a faster pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector last month.- The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a faster pace of contraction in manufacturing activity that will stir worries about the economy missing its mark with a soft landing.- The New Orders Index slumped to 45.4% from 49.1%, hitting its lowest level since May 2023.- The Prices Index dropped to 57.0% from 60.9%.- The Employment Index increased to 51.1% from 48.6%.- The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 42.4% from 45.4%.- The Supplier Deliveries Index held steady at 48.9%.- The Production Index decreased to 50.2% from 51.3%.- The New Export Orders Index rose to 50.6% from 48.7%.Fed Cuts - Not Happening- According to the latest issues of Barrons- "The Federal Reserve isn’t likely to lower interest rates in 2024. Elevated inflation, a resilient economy, and a still-strong, if softening labor market argue against the need for easing monetary policy, especially as these conditions are expected to persist through year end."WAIT A MINUTE- Rate cut bets for September are back a 66% probability after a slightly weaker than expected JOLTS report- 10YR Yields @ 4.35% (Down from 4.6% last week)GDPNow- Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q2 real GDP growth is 1.8%, down from 2.7% on May 31- Latest downward revision follows today's release of the ISM Manufacturing Index for May and Construction Spending Report for April.As Usual - Backwards- OPEC+ prolongs cuts for one year- OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.
-
Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM
The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes
Cruise anyone?
Global Warming - New Info In
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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DONATE - Show 700 Campaign
Warm Up
- Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM
- The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes
- Cruise anyone?
- Global Warming - New Info In
Market Update
- 40,000 ! Then we fail
- Fed Officials Hawkish behind closed doors
- BBQFlation
- Split Excitement!
- Hindenburg Omen
Fed - Two Faced
- Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions.
- Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease.
- The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024.
BBQFlation
- Your Memorial Day barbecue will cost upward of 10 percent more than it did this time last year according to Datasembly
- Datasembly follows the cost of groceries across the country every week. Its recently released data points to this year's Memorial Day festivities costing the average American family about $30.18 or 10.19% more than 2023.
- Burgers jumped from $7.04 in 2023 to $8.07 in 2024, or a change of 14.63% in cost. Hamburger buns cost two cents more, from $3.04 on average to $3.06.
Hindenburg Omen
- Indicator was triggered last week.
- only right about 25% of the time
- Was thought to be able to predict market crashes - let's see what happens.
FED HEAD
- The Federal Reserve should wait for significant progress on inflation before cutting interest rates, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday.
- Asked what conditions were needed for the Fed to cut rates once or twice this year, Kashkari said: “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back.”
- He said the central bank could potentially even hike rates if inflation fails to come down further. “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point,” Kashkari added.
Could we finally get relief from these thieves?
- The U.S. Department of Justice is suing to break up Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, over alleged antitrust violations.
- The lawsuit, joined by 30 states and filed Thursday, follows a DOJ investigation into whether Live Nation maintains a monopoly in the ticketing industry, a probe launched in 2022 and bolstered by fan complaints following a botched roll out for tickets to Taylor Swift's Eras tour.
- In a statement, Live Nation said the DOJ's allegations of a monopoly are "absurd."
- "The DOJ's complaint attempts to portray Live Nation and Ticketmaster as the cause of fan frustration with the live entertainment industry. It blames concert promoters and ticketing companies—neither of which control ticket prices—for high ticket prices. It ignores everything that is actually responsible for higher ticket prices, from increasing production costs to artist popularity, to 24/7 online ticket scalping that reveals the public's willingness to pay far more than primary tickets cost," said Dan Wall, Live Nation executive vice president for corporate and regulatory affairs.
DONATIONS- New Shirt Design?
Miracle Flights
- The 1986 Air Carrier Access Act requires airlines to provide a wheelchair to passengers with disabilities at the airport. The problem: Many travelers are faking it, -
Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday
Oil Unusually stable
Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident?
Meme stocks come back to earth
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
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DONATE - Show 700 Campaign
Warm Up
- Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday
- Oil Unusually stable
- Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident?
- Meme stocks come back to earth
- We have an Osbourne Effect
Market Update
- 40,000 ! Get the party hats!
- ATH, ATH, ATH
- Commods - Copper and Gold (AND silver)
- VIX - lowest since 2019
- Someone better against Tesla (Big name)
Banks
- The Federal Reserve and two other U.S. regulators are moving toward a new plan that would significantly reduce a nearly 20% mandated increase in capital for the country's biggest banks following lobbying efforts by industry CEOs like JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend.
- Required increases in capital for banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs meant to ensure they have sufficient buffers to absorb potential losses — would on average be about as much as originally floated, the Journal added.
- Top officials from all three agencies involved in the pending capital rules — the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — are still discussing substantive and technical revisions and there is no guarantee that an agreement will be reached, the WSJ reported.
Goodbye?
- In a response to a question Monday about the bank's succession planning, Dimon indicated that his expected tenure is less than five more years
- That's a key change from Dimon's previous responses to succession questions, in which his standard answer had been that retirement was perpetually five years away.
- Stock dropped 4% on that conversation
No Direction - Grasping ....
- Snap Inc. Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel said he’s investing more aggressively in bringing artificial intelligence and machine learning to Snapchat to make it more interesting for its users, the next major shift after years spent overhauling its advertising business.
- “There was a recognition that we’d fallen behind the curve on the machine learning side, which, to some degree, was reflected in the business performance,” Spiegel said in an interview. “We needed to improve there and bring together some of our most senior machine learning folks to just talk about what it would look like for us to get to state of the art and really invest.”
Meanwhile
- VIX is sagging
- The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, closed Friday at the lowest level since November 2019 as the benchmark stock index traded in a tight range just below the all-time high.
- Aside from an April pop, the VIX has been muted for much of 2024 as shares climbed.
VIX Chart
Interesting
- Online home goods retailer Wayfair is opening its first namesake store, near Chicago, following a string of other digitally native companies that have turned to brick-and-mortar for growth.
- So they think the low cost failed execution is going to do better in the higher cost brick and mortar arena?
- The company says people need to still sit in and try furniture.... (WHAT?)
AI - Here we go
- OpenAI has disbanded its team focused on the long-term risks of artificial intelligence just one year after the company announced the group, a source familiar with the situation confirmed to CNBC on Friday.
- News of Sutskever's and Leike's departures, and the dissolution of the superalignment team, come days after OpenAI launched a new AI model and desktop version of ChatGPT, along with an updated user interface, -
Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidationPPI HOT - Market does not careA Meme stock face ripper!PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterDONATE - Show 700 CampaignWarm Up- Inflation reports PPI today and CPI tomorrow- Sentiment is dropping - wondering why- Meme stock face ripper- EV days - losses not acceptable- PPI and CPI this weekMarket Update- Another good week - seems like coming out of downturn- Rates down- 10Y Treas falling over past week- S&P 500 near record- Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation- PPI HOT - Market does not careFed talk- Fed's Goolsbee and Kashkari- There has been cross currents in the data.- There has been some bumps in the road on inflation in 2024.- The Fed is in a wait and see mode- Cautious about how restrictive policy is.- More data is needed before they can predict a rate cut.- There is a high bar for another rate hike, but not ruling it out.- Leases trending up is a concerning signal.----- What does any of that tell us?------ We need to start a movement to SHUT THE FED UP (STFU)Latest Inflation Readings- The Producer Price index for final demand increased 0.5% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March. The index for final demand, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March.- On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 2.2%, marking the largest increase since April 2023, while the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, was up 2.4%, unchanged from March.- The key takeaway from the report is that nearly three quarters of the increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.6% increase in the index for final demand services, something that will detract from the Fed's confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to its 2% target.Powell speaking AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says he doesn't think next rate move will be a hike, more likely a hold; time will tell if policy is sufficiently restrictive; PPI reading was quite mixedGetting AI Overload- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says "not gpt-5, not a search engine, but we’ve been hard at work on some new stuff we think people will love! feels like magic to me" Sentiment- Consumer sentiment fell sharply in May to the lowest level in six months as Americans cited concerns about stubbornly high inflation and interest rates and fears that unemployment could rise- May Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 67.4 vs 76.5 Briefing.com consensus; April Final was 77.2Fed Put- Markets melting up since last Powell comments- There is a new spin on the old "Fed put." The latter rested on an unspoken assurance that the Fed would step in with easier policy to forestall a market meltdown.- The new version doesn't guarantee a rate cut soon, but it has created an unspoken assurance that market participants can trade around the idea that the next monetary policy move is likely to be a rate cut.Meme Stocks- Gamestock was up 80% and many of the other names moving hard--- Seems like the original Gamestock dude - Roaring Kitty put out a tweet on Monday and the stock went bananas...More Squeeze- Shares of the vaccine maker soared 99% Friday, after the company signed a $1.2 billion licensing agreement with Sanofi that includes commercializing a combined Covid-19 and flu shot.- The move boosts a stock that had plunged about 99% — prior to the deal — from its 2021 peak amid waning demand for its Covid vaccine.
-
Earnings season - better and stats
- BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER
- We are gauging investor sentiment
--- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps)
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
DONATE - Show 700 Campaign
Warm Up
- Earnings season - better and stats
- BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER
- We are gauging investor sentiment --
--- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps)
- Announcing the WINNER CTP for Apple
- Fake Work?
Market Update
- If down - buy.... Names that were hammered due to earnings catching bids again
- Follow up - Utilities
- Fed Speaks - Can't stop the Dove
- Employment - Excitement about the Unemployment Rate
Earnings Season Update:
- Overall, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2024 to date.
- Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 74%.
- In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.5% above estimates, which is also below the 5-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.7%
- Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors.
- Three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings: Energy, Health Care, and Materials.
- Revenue - up again - estimated to be 4.1% when all said and done.
- - If 4.1% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.
Fake Work
- An investor at famed Silicon Valley firm Andreessen Horowitz is the latest VC to get involved in the debate around "fake work" in the tech industry.
- Ulevitch went on to point the finger at Google specifically, calling it "an amazing example."
- "I don't think it's crazy to believe that half the white-collar staff at Google probably does no real work," he said. "The company has spent billions and billions of dollars per year on projects that go nowhere for over a decade, and all that money could have been returned to shareholders who have retirement accounts."
- Marc Andreessen has criticized a managerial "laptop class" and tweeted in 2022, "The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more."
Buy 'em
- Companies that took a hit after earnings (NFLX, AMD) getting bid again
- NFLX gapped lower from ~$608 to $551 and now $592
- AMD dropped from $160 to $140 and now $156
- SPY , IWM and QQQ- Now above the 50day Moving average again
Follow Up - Utilities
- Just wanted to provide this idea again - Data Warehouses and other AI Power hungry places
--- Symbol list of some utilities to look at further - SO, NEE, EXC, CMS
- Natural gas producers are planning for a significant spike in demand over the next decade, as artificial intelligence drives a surge in electricity consumption that renewables may struggle to meet alone.
- After a decade of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand is forecast to grow as much as 20% by 2030, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published in April. Power companies are moving to quickly secure energy as the rise of AI coincides with the expansion of domestic semiconductor and battery manufacturing as well as the electrification of the nation's vehicle fleet.
- AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030
Utilities ETF
Apple - Earnings
- Nothing great in the earnings.
--- A few pockets of sunshine....
--- Raises dividend and $110 BILLION buyback - largest buyback EVER ... -
Earnings season winners and losers.
Episode 700 - been a great run - plenty more to come.
New airline regulations and what that means to all of us.
Inflation - its not over just yet.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
DONATE - Show 700 Campaign
Warm Up
- Show #700
- Guess the date of EPISODE #1 (Show # 1 was Sep 16, 2008)
- - No Agenda episode #1 - October 26, 2007
--- The Disciplined Investor Podcast show #1 - Mar 02, 2007
- ALL economic series showing signs of inflation
- The great money in God - Top Wealthiest Pastors
- Fiducuary rules fo Retirment Plans
Market Update
- Shaking off some and smacking others - earnings season underway
- April not a great month for US equities - April now in the books
- Earnings seasons - winners and losers
- Yields on I Bonds Updated
- European stocks end April down 1.49%, posting first negative month since October
Derivative AI Investing
- Secondary play - Utilities
- We spoke of the huge demand for electricity/power from any source to power datacenters
- Investors looking for a unique way into the stock market’s artificial intelligence boom are finding an intriguing bank shot in what’s traditionally the most boring corner of the equities universe: utilities.
- Southern Company, NextEra, Excelon, CMS Energy also Eaton, Hubbell
-- Bad couple years as this is an interest sensitive sector - but massive consumption increase coming
Bird Flu in Milk
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed milking cows in Colorado tested positive for Bird Flu, following earlier infections in Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Idaho, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Dakota.
- Additional tests of milk showed that pasteurization killed the bird flu virus, federal health officials said on Friday, as Colorado became the ninth U.S. state to report an infected dairy herd.
- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late on Friday said preliminary results from gold-standard PCR testing showed pasteurization killed the virus in milk and baby formula. It did not say how many milk products it had tested but added that it plans to do more testing on 297 products from 38 states.
Good Money in God
- Most Wealth Pastors
- Benny Hinn, 71 Estimated net worth: US$60 million
Joel Osteen, 61 Estimated net worth: US$100 million
- Kenneth Copeland, 87 Estimated net worth: US$300 million
Apple Headset and More
- Earnings coming May 2
- Big slowdown in sales in China has been widely telegraphed
- Not much excitement about the product line or any innovation at this point
- AI is going to be conversation they will start to help push shares
- Apple slashes Vision Pro production, cancels 2025 model in response to plummeting demand
-- Analysts are cutting their sales for the Vision Pro in HALF!
- - Apple may decide not to release a new model in 2025 - was expecting a cheaper version possibly
Back to Inflation
- Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated.
- The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.
- Consumers showed they are still spending despite the elevated price level. Personal spending rose 0.8% on the month, a touch higher even than the 0.7% estimate. Personal income increased 0.5%, in line with expectations and higher than the 0.3% increase in February.
- GDP Report showed more pricing pressures
- Overall, 100% of recent reports showed that the inflation monste... - Mostrar mais
