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It's no surprise really, given that National campaigned on getting tough on work-shy beneficiaries, that benefit sanctions have increased more than 50% since the same time last year. Last year Louise Upston said should National become the government, they would make it crystal clear to those who were receiving the job seeker benefit, what their obligations were and what the consequences would be if they refuse to do their bit. So there were 10,389 sanctions issued in the June quarter, up 3,630 or 53.7% compared to June last year, mainly for not attending appointments and failing to prepare for work.
The National Party has a traffic light system for those on Jobseeker Benefit to make clear the consequences of not fulfilling their obligations. Green light - you're good to go. You're compliant with finding and preparing for work. You receive your benefit as normal. The government doesn't interfere in your life. Anyone on an orange light is at some risk. These are clients who have received one or two warnings, that they aren't fulfilling their obligations, so they might have to do more frequent check-ins with WINZ, not necessarily in person - you can have phone check ins, or computer check ins, or do mandatory training. If you're high risk, you've had three chances and a number of sanctions can be applied to these people, including either cutting or suspending the benefit, subjecting them to money management, or making them do community work.
Money management is a new sanction. WINZ would pay the person's rent, bills and debt directly, puts some of the benefit into the bank account and then add the rest to a special card that could only be used for food and groceries at approved stores. People might not like that level of interference, but that will only happen after you have had three or more warnings.
Green Party spokesperson for Social Development and Employment Ricardo Menendez March spoke to Jack Tame last night and said the benefits sanctions will hurt people already struggling to make ends meet and it will limit their chances of getting out of poverty.
“Benefit sanctions have not been shown to work, so I think just peddling with the same failed approach won't actually help anyone, and it's also quite rich for the government to be kicking people off work, cutting jobs, and pushing people onto a benefit, while at the same time doubling down on punishment and yet not being able to substantiate the millions of dollars that go into these works seminars that have not shown to help people into good work. We've got plenty of reports that show that people get just pushed into casual jobs that end up costing more in childcare, that are insecure as well.”
That was the Greens Ricardo Menendez March talking to Jack Tame on the drive show last night. I would like to know if he's right? Are the work seminars a complete and utter waste of time? Because if they are, then let's not keep doing that. We've learned that that if something doesn't work, if something isn't getting the desired result and you can measure that, then we stop it. We don't go throwing good money after bad. So, if the work seminars are not worthwhile and they're not meaningful, what is the point? And perhaps you have been on a work seminar in the immediate aftermath of Covid, when people suddenly found themselves without a job, you might have had to go to a work seminar or have some counselling over the phone. Does it help you find another job, look at another career?
Also, in politics it's all about timing and I totally support getting tough on people who choose not to work, who are able to work and choose not to, when employers are screaming for staff. People like BBQ man and Nature Boy who think we're the idiots for getting up and going to work and paying our taxes while they refuse to take work because they are better than the jobs being offered them, they are superior humans, they're worth more than the money being offered and the job being offered. I mean, nobody else thinks that apart from them, but they will continue to take their BBQ to the beach and have a lovely time on a glorious day while we're at work, or whistle through the wheat fields in and the forests, communing with nature and hugging trees and listening to the birds and pitying us for going to work and providing the taxes that pay for their benefits. They grind my gears and I'd love to see them go under the oak and go to a bloody, pointless seminar.
But like I say, it's all about timing to come out swinging about sanctions, when people are suffering through job losses and a recession when there are people who would love to be working and paying the mortgage and putting the food on the table but they can't because they've lost their jobs through an engineered recession... seems a bit cruel. You lose a bit of the impact with your talk of sanctions and your talk of getting people back into work when people at the moment can't, precisely because this government, and the previous government, and the Reserve Bank have engineered a recession. They need people out of work so we can get inflation down. So it's all about the timing.
I have no problem with getting tough on people who choose not to work when the jobs are going, begging, and they just can't be assed. Going to a nine to five is going to interfere with the drug dealing. How am I supposed to meet all my customers, when I'm expected to be at work? It's not going to do it. Benefit’s a nice little supplement to my black-market dealings, I have no intention of getting a job. Sure, get tough on them. I would have liked to have seen this come out when we were at a time of high employment, not at a time when there are people who are desperate for work, and because a recession has it been engineered, they cannot get one.
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The tide could be turning for those looking to buy a home.
High interest rates are dropping, ANZ dropping its home loan rates amid falling inflation and a softened tone from the Reserve Bank.
Westpac dropped their rates a week prior, cutting its 6, 12, and 18-month home loan rates.
Property Commentator Ashley Church told Kerre Woodham it’s good news for the housing market.
He said he didn’t expect much would happen prior to November, since banks have been following the rhetoric from the Reserve Bank, keeping rates high.
Church said Banks have clearly decided that enough is enough, and are taking a step out.
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The Government is no longer on track to meet its third emissions budget according to projections, and unless we meet those Paris commitments, billions of dollars could be sent offshore to pay for international climate mitigation. We failed to meet our budget. We failed to complete the plan and therefore we will be punished. Very bad news.
But guess what? As of December 2023, not a single G20 country had policies in place that are consistent with their own commitments to the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global heating to 1.5% and meeting their fair share of emissions reductions. Eight G20 countries would be rated as critically insufficient, which is just woeful and pathetic, and we can't expect anything of them - that would be Argentina, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey, Canada, Mexico and Indonesia. Some of those are very wealthy countries. Some of those have resources that they could put towards addressing the climate emergency. Have they done so? Nope, haven't even looked like it. Critically insufficient. It means their climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action. You know, you could understand it if we're talking about a country in the developing world that has been unable to meet its climate change commitments. You know, it's a lot to put in infrastructure to change the way you heat communities or the way you get energy to a community. So you could imagine countries in developing parts of the world. But no. Canada, quite wealthy South Korea, pretty wealthy too. Mexico and Indonesia, no, they don't care. It's the only thing you can draw from that really.
Then we've got China, Brazil, Australia, the EU and the UK - they're highly insufficient. So they haven't done enough either. Way off target. So when we hear that we're really bad and we've failed to meet our budget and what a dreadful country of polluters we are, we're not alone on the naughty step. And it doesn't mean, of course, that we shouldn't be doing all we reasonably can to reduce harmful emissions. It doesn't mean that we just stick two fingers and go you know what, we're not going to follow the best science and we're not going to follow the best practice we're just going to pollute away. It doesn't mean that at all, and certainly the Government doesn't have its head in the sand.
“We've tried to do as much as we can to simplify this plan. Our plan this time is shorter. It's more concise. It's focused on the big dots that are going to move us in the right direction, and that's around doubling renewables. It's about the work that we're doing around giving farmers a tool to reduce emissions in the ag space. And you know, we're confident that our plan is going to allow us to get to the targets that we're seeing. It's going to be challenging, but we're being pragmatic around the process to get there.”
Beautiful word, pragmatic. There it is. Pragmatism. Fabulous. It really gets my goat that you've got children who are hysterical because they believe the world will be in flames as a result of what heartless, thoughtless, crass generations have done. And yet, actually, the planet itself will be fine. We might pollute our own selves out of existence a few turns of the earth ahead. But seriously when they are shouting in the streets about what we need to do and how this is the nuclear moment and let's all get out there ... seriously, the key word in what Simon Watts was saying was pragmatic. Let's do all we reasonably can.
The sentence in the story that resonated with me too is that the government is keen to ensure reducing emissions does not come at the expense of growth. We just have to do it smarter. We can do it. We don't have to do it in the old ways, children, but we don't hobble ourselves. Because if we want to pay the police more, we need to be wealthier. We want better hospitals, as a country, we have to earn more, and handicapping ourselves right now to look virtuous in the eyes of the world, who do not care, it will not serve us well.
You could have the young people looking at Scandinavia. They've got women on the boards and they've got equality within society and they're highly taxed. Yeah, because they're really, really highly waged. Everybody lauds the Scandinavian countries as being the gold standard on almost every indicator worth measuring, from public health to educational attainment, to social well-being, the Scandinavians have got it on. And that's because they've grown wealthy on extractive industries. They used to be primitive. They used to be subsistence-type economies. Until they realised hang on a minute, we've got stuff that people want. And their economic success is basically based on extractive industries. Norway's oil, Sweden's iron ore, Finland's forests, huge carbon footprints but what the hey? They're wealthy. They're generous. Their people, have a great time. They enjoy high educational wellbeing, they enjoy superior health outcomes cause they're rich. And everybody says ooh look at Scandinavia and nobody says, ooh, look at dirty, filthy, polluting extractive Scandinavia, do they?
You can only afford to be generous when you've got the income to do so. So, give me a realistic, pragmatic plan over pie in the sky, idealism any day of the week.
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Shane Jones has come under fire for an undeclared dinner with mining interests.
An article from Newsroom reveals that the dinner was excluded from his ministerial diary, Jones saying that the dinner was “informal” and “last-minute”.
He then corrected himself, saying the dinner was arranged in advance.
When questioned why the dinner wasn’t in the dairy, Jones said it was “less conspiracy more cock-up - and inattention in our office,” promising to tighten the administration of the diary for the future.
Julie Haggie, CEO of Transparency International NZ, told Kerre Woodham that transparency is absolutely necessary, especially when the Minister wants to use a social license to take a considerable amount of power to make decisions.
She said the issue is fast tracking sets up a situation where ministries are referring cases, but there’s limited opportunity for review, limited advice, and limited challenge, which is quite a concentration of power.
Haggie said that the power shifts from the Government agency and Minister, and so much greater transparency and more accountability is very important.
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Inflation is continuing to fall.
Latest Stats NZ figures show the Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% in the year to June.
Today's rate is down from 4% in the year to March this year, and well down from 7.3% annually to June 2022.
Economists had forecast inflation would land on 3.3-3.5%.
NZ Herlad Business Editor Liam Dann told Kerre Woodham that there is finally starting to be some light at the end of the tunnel.
He said that it’s hard to know when the first interest rate cut will be as some of it comes down to leadership, but odds are looking very strong for a November rate cut.
He said that you’ll start to see the markets be really enthusiastic, and they’ll be pushing hard on October.
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The other big news story from last night was the result of the arbitration between the New Zealand Police and the Police Association. This is what happens when you go to arbitration, there's a winner and there's a loser. And in this case, the Police Association has lost in final offer arbitration, with the government's proposal to increase police pay being chosen.
When you go to arbitration, you put your offer in as the Police Association and it can't be too ridiculous because if it's too ridiculous the arbiter will simply take the most reasonable and sensible offer. So you have to go in with your best offer, but it has to be reasonable. Same with the government, it has to be reasonable, it has to cover off the conditions, it's got to be an acceptable offer. And then there is no meeting between these two offers, it's one or the other. And what happened? Well, the Police Association was the other. The government's proposal was accepted, and that offer is a $1500 lump sum payment, a $5000 wage increase, a 5.25% increase in allowances back dated to November of 2023, a 4% wage increase from July 1st this year, a 4% wage increase from July 1st next year and paid overtime as of July 1st 2025. It's pretty similar to the offer that was made by the Government earlier this year and that was an offer that was roundly rejected by 75% of those police officers who voted.
The Police Deputy Commissioner acknowledged that officers would be disappointed and frustrated but it was the independent arbitrator that found the offer from New Zealand Police was fair. And that's what I mean about arbitration. With mediation, the mediator isn't a decision maker and the process is based on achieving co-operation between the parties. So you sit there and say, well, that seems reasonable. What do you think about that, and you get them to work together to make their own decisions and agreements, and the mediator’s simply there to help guide the discussions. With arbitration, it's the private determination of a dispute. It's gone past mediation. It's now a dispute and an independent third party will rule a settlement of the dispute after considering the representations of the parties. It's called an award, it's final and it's binding on the party, so there's no walking back from that. It's written and it's enforceable by the courts.
So where does that leave police officers? You had an independent third party who decided that the New Zealand Police offer was fair and reasonable. And ultimately, by rejecting the Police Association, that the Police Association were asking for too much under the circumstances. So, if you're an officer who's not happy, what do you do now? Do you wait for the better times? Or do you walk? That's all you can do. And where does that leave the coalition Government’s promise of 500 more police officers in their first two years of government?
Police Minister Mark Mitchell says they wanted to do more, but the economic conditions meant the offer was the very best that they could do.
“I completely, totally understand, you know, the way our police are feeling but hand on heart line, we've inherited it. We've had a huge hospital pass and we've put together what we think is a really fair package. This new offer that our government put on the table is a quarter of a billion dollars more in an environment where as a country we're paying $8.5 billion a year just in interest payments. You know we've got to get our books back in order. We've got to start fighting our way back to a surplus and getting the economy up and running again.”
Well, he's quite right. That was Mark Mitchell talking to Ryan Bridge on Early Edition this morning. He's quite right. I mean, we can only give what we've got, we don't have the money, we can't pay the same wages as other countries, like Denmark is comparable in size, or Australia, who's our neighbour. We just can't. This is the price of the policies that were administered during the last six years. This is what happens.
Chris Cahill of the Police Association says police are really disappointed and they appear to be hamstrung because they are a group of people who simply cannot strike.
“It's not the worst deal ever, Mike, without a doubt. The problem is it doesn't get officers back even with inflation over the, sort of the five-year period. So the last two years and the three years going forward, and the other thing it doesn't do is address the big increases in demand, the big increases in risk and, and, complexity in the role and, and, other groups such as nurses and teachers that have been able to take industrial action have had some recognition for that over the last five or ten years. Police never have. So there's those two issues that it has really why we haven't been able to settle.”
So there we go, Chris Cahill says. It's not the worst in the world, but it doesn't take into account the long, protracted industrial dispute, and the fact that the risks of the job have increased, which everybody would acknowledge is true.
So what do you do now? You've got a young person in your family or somebody who's looking to do a career change, who wants to join the police, as a family member, what do you say? You are a serving police officer, you've been holding out, probably holding out for a National-led government who are more likely to be reasonable, who are more likely to want a galvanised police service who have had a lift in morale, who believe that they have a government who's backing them ... you've probably been waiting for that and this is what they're offering. Is it good enough to keep you here until the good times roll around the corner? We are hearing reports from overseas that, you know, maybe the streets aren't quite paved with gold the way we've heard. Times are tough pretty much everywhere. Crime is up. There's a contempt for authority among certain groups of people that's on the rise. And that's the world over.
So what do you do? Settle in and wait it out for the better times that must come or have you reached breaking point?
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Cancellation rates at Air New Zealand are falling but the airline’s chief executive Greg Foran acknowledges delays for passengers are frustrating and have to be reduced.
Speaking on Kerre Woodham’s Newstalk ZB show, Foran also said he could understand the frustration at being bused to destinations when flights are cancelled, but the airline was meeting its obligations if it did get passengers to where they needed to get to within a reasonable time.
In response to a question about charging fees on debit cards, Foran said the policy wasn’t going to change as it would have to look for other ways of making up that revenue.
One caller said he had been delayed on 23 out of 24 domestic flights he’d been on this year and questioned the airline’s on-time performance.
On-time performance (OTP) is an industry-wide measurement, defined as flights that arrive at their destination within 15 minutes of scheduled arrival time.
Foran said the cancellation rate had fallen to 3.2% of all flights and punctuality was improving.
Figures released earlier this year show that in the January to March quarter, Air NZ OTP for domestic jets was 81.4%.
But the caller said: ‘‘You just don’t book a meeting around an Air New Zealand flight.’'
One recent flight was due to get him from Palmerston North to Auckland at 1pm, but a plane breakdown meant a bus trip to Wellington to catch another flight and he didn’t make it back home until 1am.
‘‘You got me home which is great – but I’ve only had one flight on time. It’s shocking,’’ the caller said.
Foran said while averages could show improvement, every single case was different and the airline was concentrating its efforts on improving punctuality. It had been hit with engine maintenance problems on its domestic jet fleet and other supply chain issues were still affecting it, he said.
‘‘It is a top priority for us to get that sorted.’'
The caller said it was especially frustrating because the cost of travel was going up – including Koru membership.
‘‘We’re paying an extra $200 for that and you can’t get us there on time,’’ the caller said.
Foran said there would be other cases where people’s experience of punctuality had been good.
‘’Our objective is you got to leave on time, you got to arrive on time. We’ve got to make sure we don’t lose anything in between. There will be cases where we can’t and you accept that and I accept that but overall it’s got to improve.”
In response to another caller who had paid hundreds of dollars for a flight only to have it cancelled and taken by bus to his destination; Foran said: ‘‘obviously, it is not our preference - we’d much rather that we got you there by plane, (but) we’re fulfilling our obligations of getting you there.’'
Not everyone would have been paying hundreds of dollars, ‘‘quite a few’' would have paid $80.
‘‘There are times that these things happen and they are beyond our control, but most times we do get people to where they need to get to.’'
On charging for debit cards, Foran said the airline incurred some administrative costs.
’’We’ve got a charging structure and that’s how it operates.’'
Foran also reassured listeners with power wheelchairs (which can weigh around 140kg) that it wasn’t the airline’s policy to charge for them and it would look at ways of making international check-in smoother for those who need them.
Grant Bradley has been working at the Herald since 1993. He is the Business Herald’s deputy editor and covers aviation and tourism.
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Goodness gracious me, what a weekend, wasn't it?
If he wasn't a shoe-in after Joe Biden's bumbling mis-speaking performance that we were incredulous about on Friday, you can bet the presidency is the Donald’s for the losing now, after the failed assassination attempt at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend.
Yet to be officially confirmed that it was an actual assassination attempt, but when it looks like one, sounds like one, feels like one, you can probably assume it was one. Absolutely extraordinary scenes.
And the show of defiance in the immediate aftermath of the shooting, that image of Trump being led off stage with the raised fist and the American flag just so, reminded me of that iconic Iwo Jima photo of the GI's raising the flag. It was one of those photos for the ages, really.
Those who believe in God and Trump will believe that God protected their man, while taking the lives of others. Dissenting voices within the Republicans who aren't a hundy on Trump, they won't dare to raise their voices at the GOP convention - which is just hours away from confirming Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. As US correspondent Nick Bryant points out, there won't be a platform for any dissenting voices.
"One of the key points to make about the convention - there are Republicans who have serious misgivings about Donald Trump. There are many Republicans who wanted Nikki Haley. There are many Republicans who are who are still deeply uneasy about his authoritarian tendencies, and they have fears that American democracy really isn't safe if he is returned to the White House."
"And it's going to be very difficult to make that case in a in a voluble sense, to raise your voice against Trump in this moment, given that the party has just rallied around him. And this kind of cult that Trump has kind of created ever since he came down that golden escalator in 2015, it's become even stronger as a result of this failed assassination attempt."
Well, it really has.
He looks quite literally bulletproof, doesn't he? There have been calls for the campaigning rhetoric to be toned down in the wake of the shooting. Republican Representative Steve Scalise was among six people shot when a gunman opened fire at a baseball field in Virginia in 2017, when the Republican congressional baseball team was practising ahead of a charity game.
The gunman, who was killed by police, was angry with the Republican Party, so instead of writing a letter to the editor, or ringing talk radio, he picks up a gun and goes to shoot at them. He said he wanted to see all sides tone down the rhetoric surrounding the election. And he said after the 2017 there was a reset moment and he hopes one will be possible again.
He said - moments like yesterday refocus, everybody, reset everything, and in the shooting in 2017 for a long period of time, there did seem to be a dialling down and hopefully there'll be a dialling down again. I think everybody's got to look in the mirror.
And Melania Trump, wife of Donald Trump, released a very moving statement - an unusual one, because she has stayed well out of this. And you can kind of see why in her statement.
She said - a monster who recognised my husband as an inhuman political machine attempted to wring out (her words) Donald's passion, his laughter, ingenuity, love of music and inspiration. The core facets of my husband's life - his human side - were buried below the political machine. Donald, the generous and caring man who I've been with through the best of times and the worst of times.
Let us not forget that differing opinions, policy and political games are inferior to love. We're all humans, fundamentally, instinctively, we want to help one another. American politics are only one vehicle that can uplift our communities. Love compassion, kindness, and empathy, and necessities.
I’ve paraphrased a bit here, but basically, is she saying don't let the politics drown out the people. Don't let the political machine reduce you to a one dimensional stereotype.
And isn't that true of what's been happening the world over? When you think of the anger and the inflamed passions that we've seen around the world and here, we're not immune to it.
There were some terrible things that were said about people across the political spectrum, you know, rape, murder, rape of children, these are New Zealanders saying that, thinking that they can say it on the dark web and nobody will know it's them. Because of politics.
And you can get angry and you can believe that people make wrong choices and you can believe that they don't have the best interests of a community at heart, but how does violence and violent rhetoric help in any way, shape or form?
You wonder if people feel that they haven't got a platform to speak, that they're not being heard, which results in this kind of anger and this kind of violence.
And I'm not just talking about this particular shooting, I'm talking about what's happening the world over. Do people feel they don't have the skills to be able to speak up and articulate how they're feeling? Is that is that why we're seeing so much violence? Literal violence and metaphorical violence.
Do people feel as soon as they speak their mind, they're going to be shouted down and called bad people? You know, we used to be able to have differing opinions. We used to be able to talk about it. We used to be able to have passioned impassioned debates, and many of us still can.
But there are a group of people who either feel so misrepresented or completely ignored, or reviled, and who are unable to take a stand on a platform and have their say, express how they feel and be heard, that they resort to violence.
And it would be great if we could see this as a reset. I rather fear that than the US gun violence is so common. Not as common in the political realm, but you know, if you heard Richard Arnold, there have been plenty of examples of political shootings in recent times, not assassinations of former presidents, but certainly, as we saw with the the Republican baseball game, there have been political shootings.
It may be too late for the US, but I hope to hell it's not too late for us.
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I know the road cones might seem trivial, but to me, I've always thought they were a metaphor for excessive spending and over-rigorous regulation.
When you looked at road cones, it wasn't a little cherry orange witches hat you saw, it was costs being inflated and people being overly cautious, the wasting of time and money, which was happening across so many government departments. When National referred to road cones during the election campaign, as they did from time to time, I thought they too were using it as a symbol of excess and a symbol of red tape strangling growth. But no, road cones are in fact in the gun.
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has announced excessive use of the temporary traffic management tools (as they're officially known), must come to an end. He says use of road cones is out of control and the temporary speed limit reductions that are often left in place when work is complete is a massive frustration for drivers, and says common sense must prevail.
Of course, safety for road workers must be paramount. I heard Andrew mention 40 deaths a year... well, no, there are 10 deaths per year among road workers and 30 serious injury accidents. Way too many. That's 10 deaths too many, 30 serious injury accidents too many, even taking into account that you're working with unforgiving machinery and that there are far more risk factors involved than there are in working in an office, that's way too many accidents.
But clearly an overabundance of road cones doesn't equate to an overabundance of caution. There are millions of road cones on our roads, and they are not keeping the road workers safe. It's unlikely more road cones is going to be the answer when it comes to workplace safety.
I imagine there will be a chill wind blowing through the accounts offices of all those companies and contractors that have been working for government departments. No more sending off of invoices and just counting the gold coins coming back into the company. This seems to send a message that costs will be questioned and audited and double checked, and this is a very, very good thing. People have to be accountable when it's taxpayer dollars that are funding the projects, and I suspect that while many, many companies and businesses and who can blame them, have had a glorious few years feathering their nests, the good times are fast coming to an end.
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This week Tony Astle ate at Grand Harbour, a Chinese fine dining restaurant with a host of delicious traditional recipes.
He sampled the Pork and vegetable spring rolls, the Xiaolongbao, the spinach and prawn dumplings, and their famous deep fried squid.
"I have consumed many more dishes at this venue. I LOVE the tripe and tendons."
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Recipe of the Week: Cassis Macerated Apples and BlackberriesThis week Tony Astle is serving up a recipe for Cassis Macerated Apples and Blackberries, topped with Meringue and Baked.
Ingredients:
Fruit Mixture
1 kg Granny Smith apples, peeled, cored and thinly sliced
170 g sugar
60 g brown sugar
350 ml water
Zest of 1 orange
200 6 blackberries (fresh or frozen)
Meringue
235 g sugar
Half tbsp glucose
50 ml water
3 egg white
Method:
Fruit Mixture
Combine apples, sugars, water and zest in a pot.
Bring to a boil but avoid turning the apples mushy. Add the blackberries.
Cook for 5 minutes. Cool. Then add the cassis
Meringue
Combine water glucose and sugar in a pan.
Heat without stirring until it reaches 125 deg C on a sugar thermometer.
Beat the egg whites, until they have stiff peaks.
With the beater still running, pour the sugar syrup onto the egg whites.
Continue beating until the mixture is smooth and thick.
Note: the meringue can be refrigerated until required.
Finishing
Heat ban oven to 180 deg C.
In a pan, heat the fruit mix, then fill individual bowls.
Top with the meringue.
Bake for about 15 minutes, so the meringue is browned slightly.
Serve with whipped cream.
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Well, did we get some good news with the Reserve Bank's report yesterday? Not as full as their OCR statement that we're expecting in August, but an update nonetheless. Is the long winter of our financial discontent about to be made glorious summer? Will the Reserve Bank ease its restrictive monetary policy this year so that we don't all have to survive to 25, we can thrive in 25, giving those who are paying mortgages and business loans some respite?
Certainly, indications are that the engineered recession that's affected so many New Zealanders could be coming to an end. The Reserve Bank got what they wanted, business and consumer confidence has plummeted, unemployment has risen, and finally, finally, the battle to restore inflation to the 1- 3% target could be showing signs of being won.
A lot of conditionals in there: could be, might, should, but CoreLogic NZ’s Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson says given the continued weakness of the economy in recent months, there is a chance the August statement from the Reserve Bank could be the one where it softens its tone and starts to lay the groundwork for an OCR cut as early as November. A lot of people had been talking about those cuts happening next year, now there are signs that it could be as early as November. It stayed the same yesterday so you might be wondering why the excitement, but it was in the final comment in the statement that says we could be looking to ease some of the restrictions around economic policy.
The New Zealand Institute for Economic Research says we expect an OCR cut in the first half of 2025, with the risks increasingly tilted towards February 2025. The release of the June quarter CPI next Wednesday will be an important influence on the timing of when OCR cuts will begin, given that the Reserve Bank is still concerned about non-tradable inflation, they’re concerned that will remain persistently high. So with the non-tradable inflation, that's your insurance going up, that's your council rates, that's your rent, cigarettes and tobacco.
Kiwibank economists are far more bullish, saying the signs are that interest rate cuts will happen quickly next year. They're saying, perhaps by November. And then once the OCR comes down, then the interest rate cuts will happen early next year. So you need to see the OCR come down, and then the interest rates will follow, and it will happen quickly. We should bear in mind that while interest rate cuts will be good news for those who have home and business loans, those who are living off their term deposits won't be quite so thrilled.
So August will be the time when we know for sure whether the noose will be loosened. But are you already feeling more optimistic? I am. When you hear Kiwibank saying interest rate cuts will happen really quickly next year, we're looking to November for the OCR to come down, for inflation to get back into that target of 1-3%, that everything that the Reserve Bank has done... It's taken some time because there are some people who have money, there are some people who have profited from the recession and that's what happens in every recession there are winners and losers. So it took them longer than they thought to bring about the unemployment, to bring about the plummeting business confidence, consumer confidence. And so the pain for some people has lasted longer. But are you getting a sense, especially in your business, that things are on the up?
Confidence is all about propaganda, really. It's all about good news stories. It feeds on itself. When you have people saying, yep, the interest rate cuts are going to happen and they're going to happen quickly, then you start to think, okay, I'll have a little bit more money left in my pocket. If I can set my mortgage to those lower interest rates there'll be a bit leftover. I can spend a little bit more. I can start to enjoy life a bit more rather than clawing your way from pay packet to pay packet. I can get into my local shops, I can make some of those discretionary spends I haven't been making. Is that the sense you're getting if you're in retail? And if you're somebody with a mortgage, a loan, a business loan, do you believe that business will pick up? That you can finally put your house on the market if you've been holding off until confidence improves, and that's what it is. That you will finally have a few more cents left over after the bills have been paid. Is the phone starting to ring again with people booking more jobs?
Or are we not out of the woods yet? What is your sense on the ground? If you're one of those who's looking to refix your mortgage, are you looking to six months? A year? Are you looking at two years? Are you starting to feel more positive? Are there more good news stories coming from your friends, your colleagues, those in your community?
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The Reserve Bank has softened its language in the July Monetary Policy Review, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 5.5%
It's now saying inflation will make the 1-3% target this year.
Kiwibank economists say it's a move that has increased market confidence in a rate cut later this year.
Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr told Kerre Woodham that we’ve been in a recession for a year and a half, and it’ll take some rate cuts to jolt us out of it.
He said that they are optimistic and have been telling clients that next year will be better than this year, but it will take cuts.
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I am absolutely gobsmacked at the sheer gall of Labour even considering, suggesting, putting it out there, hey, run it up the flagpole, some form of capital gains tax might be back on the agenda.
Apparently Barbara Edmonds, who is the finance spokesperson for Labour, is just putting it out there, seeing what people think. How very dare they for two glaringly obvious reasons. A) because they had every opportunity to introduce a capital gains tax or to revamp the taxation system not just once, but twice during their six long years in office. They set up the Tax Working Group to come up with recommendations to make New Zealand's tax system a fairer one, and when the working group Chair, Sir Michael Cullen, presented the final report, the Tax Working Group said, look, we support a broad-based tax on capital gains and suggested that handing back much of the $8.3 billion it might raise over five years through income tax cuts for almost all workers. The proposals, had they been adopted, would take billions from the wealthy and give most of that money back quite evenly to millions of taxpayers, which all sounds kind and fair and true to Labour’s socialist roots and not completely unreasonable. As Sir Michael said, it was wrong that wage earners were taxed on their full income while you can earn income from gains on assets and not be taxed at all. So, all very Labour and all very true to the cause. But what did Jacinda Ardern do? She ignored the recommendations and said a Capital Gains Tax wouldn't happen while she was leader.
There was another attempt when Labour had an absolute majority in its final term to introduce a Capital Gains Tax. Both David Parker, the Revenue Minister, and Finance Minister Grant Robertson were for it. They’d done a lot of work on it, they'd picked up the work that the Tax Working Group had done. Chris Hipkins knew the electorate wouldn't stand for it, so put that proposal, along with many others on the bonfire, in a desperate and futile attempt to win back voters. And not only that, demoted David Parker. Well, David Parker to be fair excused himself or recused himself from being Minister because he didn't support ditching their Capital Gains Tax. It was an opportunity in a political lifetime to make effective change. His boss didn't have the cajones for it, so David Parker stepped back and was demoted and has since sort of languishing down in the ranks now.
So they had every opportunity to introduce a Capital Gains Tax and now they're in opposition they're talking about, hey, maybe we should look at some form of inheritance tax based on the Irish Capital Acquisitions Tax. It's galling.
And B), the other reason they shouldn’t have the temerity to even suggest it, is because how could they possibly believe that New Zealanders would trust them with another brass cent? Even now, even the most deluded of fervent Labour supporters must look at the money that has been wasted. The money that is being wasted with nothing to show for it, and it makes me want to weep. If they were sensible stewards of our tax dollars, if they or any political party could show that they were sensible managers of our money, fill your boots. Take more of my tax dollars, take the money that I haven't earned, that's just come along with the rise in property values, bring in a 33% tax as Ireland is doing on unearned windfalls, ensure that everyone, not just the children of property owners, benefits from the accumulated wealth. Sure, do it, but for Labour to suggest taking more money from New Zealanders with their track record of waste etched into so many, many minds. It's going to take a very long time to forget that.
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When Labour holds its next party conference at the end of the year, tax policy is likely to be near the top of its agenda.
Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds sent a strong signal in March that a comprehensive capital gains tax may be back on its table, questioning the fairness of the current tax system.
The Labour Party's understood to be considering whether to advocate for an inheritance tax, taking inspiration from an Irish model.
In Ireland, a 33% tax is applied to inheritance's worth more than NZ$558 thousand.
Dentons Kensington Swan Partner and tax expert Bruce Bernacchi told Kerre Woodham that he’s not surprised Labour is raising the idea of a comprehensive capital gains tax again.
He said that they campaigned on it in 2011 and 2014 and had the Tax Working Group in 2019 recommend it over a wealth or inheritance tax.
Bernacchi said that this is their opportunity to forge ahead with a coherent policy, introducing a capital gains tax that would raise money, people will understand, and it will be effective, instead of an extremely complex inheritance tax.
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The boss said to me this morning when he arrived, “Good of you to show you support for the Greens.” It's like what? He gestured to my dress. I am in a dress that is utterly, unashamedly green. All green. My Christmas dress can also come out in winter. It is not the reason I chose the dress, but I can't help feeling the teensiest bit of sympathy for the Greens. They have had a shocking run. Elizabeth Kerekere, who resigned after an investigation into her poor handling of staff and colleagues and for sending a mean text about Chloe to the wrong chat group. Oops. Julie Anne Genter and her startling and unprecedented outburst in the House, subsequent allegations of anger management issues, and a Mea culpa from her saying she’s working on bettering herself and stepping away from volatile situations.
We had Golriz Gharaman and her sticky fingers, the sudden death of Efeso Collins, the resignation of James Shaw, who is the best greenie in parliament on green issues, possibly the only person in Parliament who, well the best person in Parliament who had the best grasp of climate change, who was there in the Green Party for what you'd imagine are the right reasons. You had co-leader Marama Davidson's cancer diagnosis, and now, finally, finally, the conclusion of the investigation to Darleen Tana and exploitation of migrant worker in her business and her husband's business. Finally that's over.
Clearly, the report is damning because the Greens have been calling for Tana's head. Chloe Swarbrick spoke very well yesterday at the stand up in the Great Hall. Clearly, she is absolutely furious and feels personally betrayed. And clearly, the findings are serious because not only have the Greens told Darlene Tana in no uncertain terms to resign, they've told her to repay the salary she received while she was under investigation. What happens next? Well, acting Prime Minister Winston Peters says it's a disgrace and Darleen Tana needs to go.
WP: Well, our electoral law is fine except it's not being enforced. This is a disgrace. I mean, $42,000 of taxpayers’ money has been used by the Greens to find out what was going on when they should be spending their own money. You've got someone who has been told that she should leave Parliament. She probably won't. She’ll probably go and join the Māori Party, and then you got these purists saying we will not enforce the law that's already there now to ensure that the proportionality of Parliament remains. And it demonstrates that, you know, some parties are getting away with stuff because they've got members there claiming qualifications they never had. They were never challenged with the mainstream media. Here comes another example where this level of tolerance for an, a party that's demonstrating every day how bad it would be if they ever got to be in control, in government and nevertheless, in these circumstances, she's still there, and she should not be there and in the sense that everybody's got to be accountable and she's not.
AD: Well, they're claiming that they've done everything they can, they ask her to resign from the party, she resigns. Then it's up to her to go to the speaker and resign herself. But as I said earlier, turkeys don't vote for Christmas...
WP: No, no. I'm sorry, they're not doing everything they can. They could expel her and then they could make it very clear to the speaker that she's no longer a member of their party. And that would mean that she would have to stand down as an MP. All the law is right in front of them, written for such circumstances. But the question is, you chose this person that could not be trusted, and now you're saying that it's all the rest of us, and our problem about getting rid of this person, whether it's a male or female MP doesn't matter. It's simply not satisfactory.
Well, that's an understatement. That was Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters talking to Andrew Dickens this morning.
The report will be released so we can see for ourselves, according to the Greens, once all the named parties have been consulted. But what to do about invoking the waka-jumping clause if she decides she's not going to leave Parliament? If she decides she's going to ignore the pleas from Chloe Swarbrick and her party. The Greens hate the Electoral Integrity Act, which is what the waka-jumping law is formally known as, despite being forced to swallow that dead rat back in 2018, the coalition agreement. There seems virtually no chance that they will use the party axing option to force Tana from Parliament, unless they have a massive change of heart.
They held back from doing so when Elizabeth Kerekere quit, but there's a big difference because this is very, very early on in the electoral cycle, we're only six months in. Elizabeth Kerekere only warmed her seat for five months. So, the taxpayer only had to pay for a useless MP for five months, which is still five months too many. Darleen Tana would be there impotent and hopeless for two years. Two years! And more, if she chooses to stage a sit-in in defiance of her former party this is the perfect time for the Green Party to dismount from their increasingly lame high horses. Idealism and zealotry are all very well and good, but you might in principle disagree with the law, but you must invoke it if you can if you don't want to rip off the taxpayer.
Making tough decisions is a part of politics and it's time the Green Party grew up and showed that pragmatism trumps idealism when it comes to protecting the voters.
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Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters doesn't feel the Greens are doing all they can in regard to Darleen Tana.
The Green Party's asked Tana to resign from parliament after receiving the investigation into alleged migrant exploitation at her husband's business.
Tana doesn't accept the findings, claiming it substantially misrepresents her level of involvement in the business.
She's resigned from the party, but not yet Parliament.
Peters says they could expel Tana, utilising the waka-jumping legislation and forcing her to step down as MP.
Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper told Kerre Woodham that the Greens should "eat humble pie" and get rid of her through the legislation they’re vehemently opposed to.
He said that there’s no way that she’s going to make one iota of difference to the votes in parliament.
Soper said that if Darleen Tana stays on, it shows that the money is of more interest to her than what is democracy.
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I may not have been flying to Brazil, but it took me almost as long to get from the North Shore to Auckland city on Friday night.
There was a serious crash just before the Harbour Bridge and as fate would have it, I was due to meet friends to go to the Chelsea Handler show. Had I known what Chelsea Handler was going to be like, I wouldn't have made the effort. I'm sure she was all very risky and shocking and wowseballs when she first came on the scene, but it was all a bit dull really.
But never mind, at least I have an opinion - and it was a night out and you meet your people.
But an hour and a half to get there in what would normally be a 25 minute trip? An hour and a half. It would be great to have a better alternative than a 1 hour 30 minute trip into town when something happens.
I can't see a second Harbour Bridge in my lifetime, or indeed the lifetime of the next two generations, but bring on the Roads of National Significance. Seven roads are being fast tracked and they may well be tolled to help pay for them.
It will be up to NZTA to decide whether and which roads will be tolled, but the Transport Minister, Simeon Brown supports a user pays approach.
We're open to all types of funding and financing arrangements to get infrastructure built in New Zealand. The reality of the country is that we have an infrastructure deficit. We have had six years where we've had nothing done and we need to get actually make things, get things done faster in New Zealand.
And so we've said all options are on the table to get infrastructure built faster in New Zealand and that's why we're putting fast track on the table because otherwise these roads would take years to get consented.
New Zealanders are sick and tired of how long it takes to get anything done in New Zealand and as a Government we are we're frustrated about the time it takes that we're breaking through all of those barriers so we can get things done in New Zealand.
Yes, what he said.
I mean, maybe not all New Zealanders are frustrated at the length of time, but I am. I'm frustrated and annoyed that in six years, there was no progress made. And I don't have a problem at all with having tolls on some roads because by law, an alternative must be offered.
So, if you don't want to pay the toll, you don't have to. You don't like tolled roads? Don't drive on them. Really simple.
Perhaps Tauranga listeners are in a better place to judge, though. I mean I have no problem at all with paying the toll going north. The road is fantastic and it makes a difference when it's open.
So no problem at all with that, because if I didn't want to pay it or felt like taking the scenic route, I could. But perhaps Tauranga is a better place to judge because they have two of the three tolled roads in the country in their district. So perhaps you might be able to offer an insight into what it's like to have the toll roads more than I.
I only travel up there every few months and I'm very grateful and happy to pay my $5 or whatever it is for the round trip. But these roads have been in the planning for a decade. Let's get cracking.
And absolutely we should just fast track it and get going. A number of the projects have already had the lion's share of the work needed done on them.
So all the work was done – costings, measurements, soil engineering, preliminary reports - all ready to go, and then they were shelved and left to gather dust under the previous administration. Communities change in 10 years, so NZTA said they'd have to go back and take a look and see whether some changes were needed, but they won't be starting from scratch.
The soil composition is not going to change in ten years. Belfast to Pegasus, Hawke's Bay expressway, SH 1 Cambridge to Piarere, SH 29 Tauriko, Takitimu Northlink Stage 2, Mill Road and Warkworth to Wellsford. Bring it on!
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Two billion dollars was poured into mental health by the previous administration, and it just proves that chucking money at a problem doesn't solve it. The Mental Health Foundation at the time was sceptical that the huge boost in funding would be spent in the right areas. Education about maintaining and boosting mental health and well-being, they said, should be just as important as the services needed when people are in crisis. But the government was more about funding the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff.
So what was the result of that huge investment in mental health? Nearly half a decade later what do we have for that money? Well, as many of you know, it's now harder than ever to see a counsellor or a psychologist, even privately, even if you've got the money to see them privately, you'll be waiting. Workforce shortages continue to cripple existing services and impede the rollout of new ones. When it comes to hospital beds, well, acutely unwell mental health patients will still find themselves in a makeshift bed in a staff room, or on a hospital ward not fit for purpose. Resources are so stretched that children harming or starving themselves are typically only admitted if they've tried to take their own life. It's been like that for some time. In several regions, young people in crisis are having to wait twice as long as they did five years ago to see a specialist mental health service. And that's with $2 billion poured into the sector.
Meanwhile, research shows the mental health and well-being of New Zealanders has been in decline over the last decade, while the number of adults unable to get help for their mental distress or substance abuse has risen. Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey is hoping to turn that around, (and good luck to him) with five mental health and addiction targets announced yesterday with some funding. And promising that there would be a big focus on prevention and early intervention and that's a focus mental health campaigner Sir John Kirwan supports.
“Look, there's three things that are really, really important for me. You cannot centralise mental health, so it needs to be a community issue. I travel the country, there's some amazing people in the community that are doing great mental health work so we need to finance them. The second thing is we've got to start talking about preventative mental health, how do we stop pushing people off the cliff? And you know, I think what this government has said, if we give 10 million this year and these people come back to us and say this is working in the community, you know, we've got this program that's working. Here's the proof. They're going to extend on that money. So community is where it's at. And if you're out there and you've got these programs in place where you know you're making a difference in mental health, then I would say apply for it. Innovation is the word we need. You know, this is a worldwide problem here, as you know. I mean there there's 800,000 people committed suicide last year, so this is a crisis around the world and our beautiful little country is way up there in the bad stats. So what we've been doing and I don't think this is anyone's fault, what we've been doing is not working so we need to try and attack this differently. So innovation, giving money to the community, then proving back that it works and then giving them more money is definitely what I think we should be doing.”
That was Sir John Kirwan talking to Heather du Plessis Allan last night. So I'd love to hear from those of you who have been trying to get help for a loved one, trying to get help for yourself. What's the wait time? What are the treatments offered to you if you do finally get to see someone. And for those who are initiating community responses, for those who are trying to help out on a local level, I would love to hear from you as well. What are you doing that's different? How are you helping? You know we tried with the gangs to see if it worked putting money with gang members, because they can reach the hard to reach people. I think at best you would say the results were indeterminate from Harry Tam’s programme. But I would very much like to hear from those who have been trying to access support or help for someone they love or for themselves. And I'd love to hear from any initiatives that actually work, they might be little, they might be small, they might be bespoke, but they might be working.
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This week Tony Astle ate at The Engine Room, an Auckland restaurant with a focus on seasonal dishes and locally grown produce.
He sampled the Bluff Oysters, the Grass Fed Scotch Steak with Maitre d’hotel butter, Hapuku -the catch of the day- with eggplant, caponata, and saffron aoli, and the twice-baked Cheese Souffle, which was once a signature dish at his own Antoine's.
The twice-baked cheese souffle from the Engine Room. Photo / Tony AstlePlus, for desert he tried the Coconut Panacotta, the Chocolate cremino al chocolato, and topped it all off with a selection of cheeses.
"A four tick experience... bordering on five ticks."
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Recipe of the Week: French Onion SoupPhoto / Getty
Ingredients
2 tbsp oil
10 large onions peeled and thinly sliced
1 tsp sugar
1 tbsp flour (optional)
3 litres heated fresh beef stock
375 ml dry white wine
Note: This soup is best made at least two days before it is required.
Method
1. In a heavy-bottomed pot add the oil, sliced onion and sugar.
2. Over a low heat, slowly cook the onions, stirring frequently.
3. This process will take some time.
4. When the onions are caramelised, but not burnt, sprinkle them with flour.
5. Stir well. Then, add the heated stock and the dry white wine.
6. Bring to the boil. Skim-off any scum that floats to the surface throughout cooking.
7. Reduce heat, simmer for about 40 minutes.
8. Remove from heat, chill, then refrigerate until required.
To Serve
1 Baguette thinly sliced
Gruyere cheese, grated
1. Preheat an oven to 180 deg C.
2. Heat the soup, then ladle it into individual ramekins.
3. Top with slices of baguette, liberally sprinkled with enough Gruyere to cover the top (about 3 tbsp per ramekin).
4. Place in oven and bake until golden brown.
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The Government will officially announce this morning a plan “to flood the market” with land for development in a bid to end New Zealand's housing crisis. Chris Bishop will use a speech to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand later this morning, to announce a slew of changes to New Zealand's planning laws. He wants to flood the market with affordable land to develop and to make it easier and cheaper to develop that land into housing as he told Mike Hosking this morning.
CB: We're going to let cities grow, Mike, it's really important. We've got a housing crisis. We need to allow our cities to grow. We need to get rid of the Auckland metropolitan urban limit. Let Auckland grow out at the fringe, but also do sensible density around transit corridors and around our train stations. More apartments by train stations, more mixed-use zoning, let our cities grow and get on top of this multi-generational problem of housing affordability.
MH: Is this mainly metropolitan? Rural New Zealand, provincial New Zealand doesn't really need to worry about any of this, cause it's not really a problem for them or not?
CB: Yeah, what we call tier one and two cities, so Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch, Hamilton, Tauranga, we're not talking about provincial and, and regional rural councils, you know, they've got growth ambitions as well, but we're really talking about our big cities.
Excellent. We need more homes. The lack of affordable housing has left a generation feeling locked out of home ownership and the lack of social housing has led to a myriad of social problems.
But. But. But. There must be protections for future homeowners around the quality of the builds for the community, for all of us who call a city home. Just look around Auckland City if you've visited, if you live here, so many of the apartments chucked up in the 90s are aesthetically abhorrent. They are not fit for purpose. There was no thought put into building them, just chucking them up to basically factory farm people. There must be some rules around what developers can build and how they build. Green spaces, community spaces, homes, just as a basic, that don't leak or have bits drop off into the street. Parkwood Apartments, City Garden Apartments, Victopia, Harbour Oaks, The Pulse, Westmount, St Lukes Gardens, Stonefield villas, that is on the first 2 seconds of a Google search of Auckland apartments that need to be remediated. And the human misery that goes along with sinking your money into a spanking new apartment, only to have it fall around your ears a decade later cannot be overestimated.
So fine, do quality apartments with community spaces, green spaces, that allow for people to live in them. Not just shelter overnight but to live in them. And to live in them for as long as they want, not have to move out while dangerous buildings are repaired. There has got to be some comeback on the developers. So that is one concern.
The other is the idea of moving beyond the city limits. I mean, Auckland is a great sprawling metropolis anyway, it's just about at Hamilton already. Wellington, the geography sort of precludes you from sprawling, but you're certainly inching your way out there. Urban areas expanded by 15% from 1996 to 2018, with 83% of that land converted from farmland. The area of highly productive land lost to housing increased by 54% between 2002 and 2019. And market pressures (this is a story from 2021) will increase with more demand as the population grows here and overseas. Only about 15% of land is flat with good soil and climate, that makes it ideal for food production, which means it needs lesser irrigation and fertilizers. The Ministry for the Environment said if productive land was not available for agriculture, it forced less suitable areas to be used, requiring more fertilizer and more irrigation, which could then hurt the wider environment.
I am absolutely not against building more homes, building more apartments, building more houses, we have to, there's no two ways about it, but we have to do it properly. We have to recognise that if we don't do it well, all we're doing is taping up a problem in the short term, while creating a much, much bigger problem down the line. And I think future generations will have more than enough to deal with, without us giving them even more problems.
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