Episódios
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oil market, too. This is already why OPEC is itself shifting to recession economics.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Bessent Says Two-Year Treasuries Signaling Fed Should Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/bessent-says-two-year-treasuries-are-signaling-fed-should-cutBloomberg Understanding the Unlikely Saudi Push for Lower Oil Prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-01/opec-puzzle-understanding-the-saudi-push-for-lower-oil-pricesCNN McDonald’s just had its worst quarter since Covid. It said customers are getting nervous
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/investing/mcdonalds-earnings-first-quarter-2025https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-april-2025.htmlBloomberg Mexico Economy Narrowly Dodges Recession Amid US Trade Chaos
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/mexico-economy-narrowly-dodges-recession-amid-trump-trade-chaosCNBC Euro zone economy expands by better-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/euro-zone-gdp-q1-2025.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Conference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Flip
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-25/economists-say-trade-war-makes-us-recession-almost-a-coin-fliphttps://www.eurodollar.university
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If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Fed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdfTexas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504#tab-reporthttps://www.eurodollar.university
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/While other airlines were pulling their forecasts afraid to tell the truth and preferring to hide under behind "uncertainty", Southwest's CEO bluntly stated there's a recession. And that's exactly what is starting to emerge from the Federal Reserve's very own contacts, thus why former FOMC hawks are now sounding incredibly dovish, the fundamentals of interest rates in all directions.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg Southwest CEO Says US Airline Industry Is Already in a Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/southwest-ceo-says-us-airline-industry-is-already-in-a-recessionFed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Weakness in key Asian bellwether has authorities there panicking into bailouts, setting its central on course to be the next major to head into "historically" low interest rates. That's not all, there's already spillover from the tariff shock in China where reports show work stoppages and factory closings. And rates there are right back near record lows.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ChosunBiz South Korea's economy faces 0.2% GDP decline amid tariff and political turmoil
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/04/24/O6H63WLPC5BHDE3HUEYUTF6UUMSouth Korea Ministerial Meeting on Economic Affairs and Ministerial Meeting on Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness (Apr.15, 2025)
https://english.moef.go.kr/pc/selectTbPressCenterDtl.do;jsessionid=ngE3YYBKCpQ6L--F1ty-I76Sl7rjfIGh94TDtjlr.node20?boardCd=N0001&seq=6146FT Chinese factories slow production and send workers home as US tariffs bite
https://www.ft.com/content/d5784258-4de3-44a1-94ae-6f763857b034https://www.eurodollar.university
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdowns, and the reason why has everyone from airlines to Walmart scrambling.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Walmart Amps Up Discounts as Rivals Weigh Tariff-Driven Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/walmart-amps-up-discounts-to-lure-cost-conscious-customersBloomberg Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/walmart-keeps-price-pressure-on-suppliers-after-beijing-pushbackCNBC Chipotle is seeing a ‘slowdown’ in consumer spending as 2025 gets off to a rough start
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q1-2025-earnings.htmlBloomberg American Air Is Latest US Carrier to Give Up on 2025 Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/american-air-aal-pulls-full-year-outlook-on-soft-travel-demand-worryBloomberg United Airlines Is So Unsure About the Economy It Offers Two Profit Scenarios
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/united-air-flags-recessionary-risk-while-keeping-profit-targetCNBC Alaska Airlines warns of slower demand as second-quarter profit outlook falls short
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/alaska-air-alk-1q-2025-earnings.htmlSPG Composite PMI flash April 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9ee36c52b8a649adada211c1842512behttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn't a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Traders View Treasury Auctions as Litmus Test for Foreign Buyers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/us-treasury-auctions-offer-latest-clues-on-foreign-buyers-strikehttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Another day, another major warning this time once again from the Swiss. This one is a critical dollar signal. Even though the mainstream gets it completely backward, that diminish the significance of the surge. Plus, it is being corroborated by others along with changes to macro interpretations even among official bodies like the IMF.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
SNB's Martin Schlegel December 12, 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-12/snb-s-schlegel-on-interest-rate-decision-negative-ratesIMF WEO April 2025
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025https://www.eurodollar.university
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/We're moving out of the theoretical impacts from tariffs and global weakness and into the reality of the situation. The first data from April is coming in from a variety of sources. China is seeing major reactions, as did South Korea. Hardly being spared, the response in Philly manufacturing was near-historic. Here comes the data for all those dependent.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Trade war fallout: Cancellations of Chinese freight ships begin as bookings plummet
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/trade-war-fallout-china-freight-ship-decline-begins-orders-plummet.htmlBloomberg Shrinking Korea Exports Send Global Warning on Trump Tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/south-korea-s-early-trade-data-show-exports-shrank-after-tariffsHankyoreh BOK warns of negative economic growth in Q1, hinting at another downgrade in May
https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/1193165.htmlConference Board March 2025 LEI
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicatorshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Foreign governments are selling large quantities of Treasury securities, including the Chinese. Several commentators have therefore suggested there is a growing probability China devalues the yuan. While all of these results and possibilities are indeed related, not all foreigners are selling dollar assets. According to the same data, this group has been a buying hand over fist.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Anyone looking to buy gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below:
https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversity
A return to historic low interest rates in Europe is now practically guaranteed. Chances for ultra-low and maybe even zero is becoming too much to ignore. More importantly, why Europe has become a leader of the pack in the race to the bottom.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB Press Conference April 2025
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250417~091c625eb6.en.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YWkRPdC79Mhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/There are way too many critical financial and monetary signals at crisis levels right now. The 2008 or 2020 comparisons are all over the place. The latest to reach these numbers is derived from silver. By itself, what it has done is alarming. Combined with everything else performing similarly, it's too much to ignore. The reason why is what all these together really mean, exactly what we investigate here.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Anyone looking to by gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below:
https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversity
A big move in Japan today, with yields dropping and the yen rising. Both were matched by some truly grim developments and warnings from around the world, everything from AI to the Bank of Canada's extreme case and then some truly grim results in New York. Or, exactly what JGBs and JPY are signaling themselves.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Nvidia Curbs and ASML Warning Spur Global Tech-Stock Rout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/nvidia-supplier-stocks-drop-on-latest-china-export-restrictionsWTO April 2025 Global Trade Outlook
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook25_e.pdfFRBNY April 2025 Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2025/2025_04blsreport.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=F63E9C1D24FCF84A22217C915C713718
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Central bankers all over the world kept saying, nah, we’re not going to do it this time. They weren’t going to race to the bottom, cutting their interest rates back down to historical lows. And the data keeps coming in that says, yeah, you are. Troubling developments along these lines as Europe goes more for the bottom.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg UK Employment Fell Most Since Pandemic Ahead of Tax Hike
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/uk-wage-growth-quickens-employment-falls-in-dilemma-for-boeRueters ECB's Rehn sees stronger case for ECB rate cut in April amid trade war
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecbs-rehn-sees-stronger-case-ecb-rate-cut-april-amid-trade-war-2025-04-09/ZEW press release
https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/liberation-day-causes-zew-indicator-to-plungeIEA April 2025
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2025Bloomberg Oil Goes From Bad to Worse in First Takes on 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-15/oil-goes-from-bad-to-worse-in-first-takes-on-2026https://www.eurodollar.university
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Ray Dalio says he believes the economy is already on the edge of a full-blown recession already, and he's hardly alone. However, Dalio also told Meet The Press his main worry is that recession economy getting slammed by a crisis. While Mr. Dalio means persistently higher interest rates, we know that's not what the real markets are pricing even if ultimately this would lead to exactly what he's warning about.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
NBC News Ray Dalio MtP
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-is-worried-about-something-worse-than-recession-full-interview-237257285807Bloomberg Bessent Is Wrong About Banks Saving Treasuries
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-14/bessent-is-wrong-about-banks-saving-treasuriesFRBNY SCE
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/Bloomberg Fearing Recession, Young People Are Heading to Grad School
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/grad-school-interest-surges-as-young-people-fear-recession-bleak-job-markethttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Consumer confidence plummeted to second lowest on record for a series that dates back to 1952 as American workers are afraid for their jobs in way the economy hasn't seen since the worst months of 2009. If that wasn't enough, both consumer and producer price indexes for March declined into deflation...in spite of tariffs.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/https://www.eurodollar.university
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DXY fell to its lowest value in more than two years. That means the dollar is crashing, right? Everyone says so, but when it comes to the dollar or anything related to the monetary system what everyone says is rarely ever so. The dollar IS going nuts, at least that part's right.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters US dollar stranglehold on global FX sets stage for euro parity: Reuters poll
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/us-dollar-stranglehold-global-fx-sets-stage-euro-parity-2025-01-08/Reuters Next up for markets: A crisis of confidence in the dollar
https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/next-up-markets-crisis-confidence-dollar-2025-04-04/https://www.eurodollar.university
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/One of the most critical and dependable monetary signals we have utterly crashed this week. While other financial markets struggle to regain their footing, this one says there's more disorder still to come along with the negative consequences from it in the real economy. And to punctuate how high the possibilities are, the BLS reported a disturbingly negative CPI for March.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Why are Treasury yields soaring when they should be falling on flight to safety? This is the telltale sign of something we're not supposed to talk about or even recognize. As clear as day, the Treasury market's supposed breakdown explains everything else that's happening alongside it: why there are liquidations and chaos seemingly in every direction.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Basis Trade/Hedge Fund Bailout
https://youtu.be/MF3B0puKkxUhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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