Episódios
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The recent elections in Georgia and Moldova were marred by significant Russian interference, including disinformation campaigns and vote-buying. As the Kremlin seeks to undermine the candidate countries’ EU futures, Brussels needs to take action.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Tefta Kelmendi, deputy director of the ECFR Wider Europe Programme, and Nicu Popescu, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss what was at stake in these elections. What do the results mean for Georgia and Moldova’s EU accession? How did disinformation schemes and vote-buying under Russian influence impact the votes? And what actions should the EU take in response?
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EU member states have voted to implement proposed tariffs of up to 45 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles. Germany was among five member states to vote against this, isolating itself among its counterparts. In response to the vote, China imposed anti-dumping measures on European brandy imports. But if geopolitical tensions escalate, the EU’s most substantial leverage might involve limiting China’s access to its markets.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR geoeconomics programme lead, and Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s Asia programme, to discuss the implications of EU economic sanctions on China. What does the vote mean for Beijing? Given Germany’s objection to EV tariffs, how might Berlin react to these measures? Does it have the potential to become a trade war? And what lessons on sanctions can Europeans learn from the Russia-Ukraine experience?
Bookshelf:
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario by Agathe Demarais
The Idea of China by Mark Leonard, Alicia Bachulska, and Janka Oertel
A Midsummer’s Equation: A detective Galileo novel by Keigo Higashino
This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024
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Since the Sudanese civil war began in 2023, millions of people have been displaced, and thousands killed or injured: as European governments focus on crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, the brutal conflict has led to a humanitarian catastrophe. Now, while various actors such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States variously mediate in Sudan, Europe remains on the sideline.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Will Brown, senior policy fellow at ECFR’s Africa programme; Jonas Horner, ECFR visiting fellow; and Raga Makawi, associate at the Alameda Institute, to discuss the humanitarian and diplomatic dimensions of the crisis in Sudan, and why and how European countries should intervene. Why should Europeans pay more attention to Sudan? What are the implications of this conflict in the region, and for Europe? How does it involve external actors, and what are they pushing for? How likely is a settlement that also addresses the humanitarian situation? And what is the prospect of future peace and order in Sudan?
This episode was recorded on 10 October 2024
Bookshelf:
Sudan’s humanitarian catastrophe demands a surge in European support for its civil society by Jonas Horner
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One year on from the murderous attacks of 7 October 2023, the Middle East is in the middle of an escalating regional war. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme; Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme and Iran expert; and Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow in ECFR’s MENA programme and an expert on Israel-Palestine, to discuss the present and future of the Middle East.
How will Israel respond to Iran’s recent attacks? Will it seek to press home its advantage and attack its nuclear programme? How might Iran try to recreate its deterrence after the decapitation of Hizbullah? How is it thinking about the role of proxies, public opinion, and nuclear weapons? What are the longer-term prospects for the region and for Israel and Palestine? And what is the role of the United States in the region?
This podcast was recorded on 8 October 2024.
Bookshelf:
River of Smoke: A Novel (The Ibis Trilogy, 2) by Amitav Ghosh
The Son of Prophecy: The Rise of Henry Tudor by Nathen Amin
Israel’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ Moment in the Middle East by Stephen M. Walt
The Journey by Francesca Sanna
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With only a month to go before the US election, much ink has been spilled writing about how US foreign policy might change if Trump returned to the White House. This is made easier because there is a wealth of information out there for analysts to go on. Harris, on the other hand, is a bit of a foreign policy enigma. With little to no foreign policy experience before becoming vice-president, she has stuck closely to the administration’s line on every major foreign policy issue of the Biden presidency thus far, at least publicly, which has made it especially difficult to guess what a “Harris doctrine” might look like.
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and a fellow in the US programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director and head of the US programme. Together, they discuss what a President Harris’s foreign policy might look like. What’s the one thing European policymakers should take away from this episode? On what issues would Harris likely pursue continuity with the current administration? And where might she want to take a different approach?
The podcast was recorded on 3 October, 2024.
Bookshelf:
My Brilliant Friend by Elena Ferrante
Intermezzo by Sally Rooney
Good as gold by Joseph Heller
Swamp Chronicles with Jeremy Shapiro and Asli Aydintasbas
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Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni is playing a central role in the country’s recent significant political developments. Her right-wing coalition government, which is inter alia focused on tightening immigration policies and promoting an Italian nationalist agenda, continues to draw national and international attention – as well as derision. But, despite her Eurosceptic stance, Meloni maintains a pragmatic approach in dealing with the European Union.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Lykke Friis, director of Think Tank Europa; Sylvie Kauffmann, editorial director at Le Monde; and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office and senior policy fellow, to discuss Meloni’s ideas to prevent the ‘decline’ of the West. How does she view the trajectory of Western civilisation, and Europe’s future global role? What does Meloni’s rise mean for European politics? Does Meloni truly envisage her political project fitting into prevailing Western ideologies? And how do France and Denmark view the current state of Italy?
This episode was recorded on 25 September 2024
Bookshelf:
Vaterländer by Sabin Tambrea
The Wizard of the Kremlin by Giuliano da Empoli
Chernobyl: The History of a Nuclear Catastrophe by Serhii Plokhy
Meloni's speech at the Atlantic Council’s Global Citizen Awards ceremony in New York
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After a period of stalemate between Russia and Ukraine, direct military action has recommenced. Heightened tensions have led to discussions on Europe’s readiness for a ‘war economy’ and the United States is also reportedly considering lifting its ban on Ukraine’s use of American weapons to strike Russian territory; the Kremlin has responded with its usual bluster. But amid the rhetoric and battlefield manoeuvring, Ukraine’s leadership has also begun a tentative discussion regarding a diplomatic end to the war.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova, ECFR visiting fellow and recently foreign policy advisor to Slovakian president Zuzana Caputová, and Nicu Popescu, former foreign minister of Moldova and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the domestic state of Ukraine, development of Europe’s war economy, and if and how the conflict could end. Have Ukraine or Russia’s aims – or red lines – changed? What role could Europe play in concluding the war? But how might the EU also prepare for potential further Russian aggression?
This episode was recorded on 16 September 2024
Bookshelf:
Faustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War, by Ian Ona Johnson
War and Punishment: The Story of Russian Oppression and Ukrainian Resistance, by Mikhail Zygar
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It has been a momentous few weeks in German and French politics. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won its first state election – and achieved the German far-right’s best result since the second world war – in Thuringia with 33% of the vote; in Saxony, it came a close second to the Christian Democratic Union. In France, after weeks of uncertainty caused by a divided National Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron appointed Michel Barnier as the country’s prime minister.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, senior policy fellow and head of the ECFR Paris office, and Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of the ECFR Berlin office. Together, they discuss the current state of German and French politics, and the implications for the European Union and European politics overall. What do these election results mean for Germany, and the EU? How long will the ‘firewall’ against the AfD hold? And does France finally have a government again?
This episode was recorded on 9 September 2024
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Russia is influential in international organisations: a permanent member of the UN Security Council, it also participates in geoeconomic groups such as the G20, and BRICS+. Regionally, Russia leads the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. But relations with Western organisations such as NATO and the EU are strained, and the G8 suspended Russia as a member following its invasion of Ukraine.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Sasha Gabuev, an expert on China and Russia, and director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, and Mikhail Komin, ECFR visiting fellow, and expert on authoritarian regimes, and Russian elites and bureaucracy. They discuss Russia’s motives for joining these organisations, and the impact on the West. Which international institutions is Russia most excited about? Does its membership present a threat to the West? And how can these multinational unions benefit Moscow?
This episode was recorded on 7 August 2024.
This podcast is part of Re:Order and was produced with support from Stiftung Mercator
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In the run-up to America’s presidential election, ECFR’s US programme has launched a new podcast, “Swamp Chronicles”. The mini-series delves into the crucial discussions and deeper issues shaping the election, and moves beyond the usual campaign headlines to explores its potential impact on US foreign policy – and on Europe. Swamp Chronicles is hosted by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s director of research and head of the US programme.
In this week’s episode, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro are joined by Robert Kagan, Stephen & Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, to examine the underlying forces shaping Donald Trump’s Republican Party ahead of the 2024 election. They discuss the historical origins of his ‘MAGA’ movement, the implications of a potential Trump victory for American and global democracy, and whether Trumpism can endure beyond Trump himself.
Subscribe and stay tuned: https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/66d0759bf16c66f62d06e0a3
Music was recorded and produced by Kingston Lindner
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South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s 11 countries varies from democracy to autocracy, many cooperate through organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and BRICS.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Lynn Kuok, the Lee Kuan Yew Chair in Southeast Asian Studies at the Brookings Institution, and senior fellow at the University of Cambridge, to discuss how such organisations are shaping regional politics. What impact is membership having on the foreign policy of member states? Why are certain south-east Asian countries attracted to specific organisations? And how might competition between China and the United States benefit the region?
This podcast is part of Re:Order and was produced with support from Stiftung Mercator.
This episode was recorded on 9 August 2024.
Bookshelf
Southeast Asia in the New International Era, by Robert Dayley
Southeast Asia: An Introductory History, by Milton Osborne
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In American foreign policy debates, prioritisers argue that the US should focus on deterring Chinese expansion, consequently shifting its resources away from Europe and towards the Indo-Pacific. But questions are also emerging about the US presence in the Middle East, as well as the country’s commitment to NATO – which the looming election has thrown into uncertainty.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Alex Velez-Green, former national security adviser to Republican senator Josh Hawley, and senior adviser at the Heritage Foundation, to discuss the prioritiser perspective. Is the American unipolar moment over? Can the US offer support to both Ukraine and Taiwan, simultaneously? And what should be the priorities for America’s grand strategy in foreign policy?
This podcast is part of Re:Order and was produced with support from Stiftung Mercator.
This episode was recorded on 29 July 2024.
Bookshelf
The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict, by Elbridge Colby
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In recent years, China has overtaken the United States as the largest trading partner of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Not only has Beijing played a bigger role in the region’s economic order, it is also taking the lead in creating new institutions in Asia. China is known for BRICS or its eponymous Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. But more recently, free trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement are bolstering China’s challenge to existing institutional order.
In this episode of the Re:Order summer series, Mark Leonard welcomes bestselling author and S.T. Lee chair in US-Asia relations at the Harvard Kennedy School Rana Mitter to discuss China’s positioning vis-à-vis the West. How does China engage with ASEAN? How are economic flows and institutions shaping the fast-changing region? Are their institutions shadow organisations of the West or trying to challenge the West?
This episode was recorded on 26 June 2024.
This podcast is part of Re:Order and was produced with support from Stiftung Mercator.
Bookshelf
China steps out: Beijing’s Major Power Engagement with the Developing World, by Johsua Eisemann
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The prisoner exchange between the West and Russia last week was the largest swap since the end of the cold war. At Turkey’s Ankara airport, Russia and Belarus released 16 detainees, while the United States, Poland, Germany, Slovenia, and Norway released 8.
In this week’s Europe in 30 Minutes special episode, deputy director of ECFR Vessela Tcherneva welcomes welcomes distinguished policy fellow Camille Grand, who leads ECFR's defence intitative, senior policy fellow Gustav Gressel, who focuses on Russia, eastern Europe, and defence policy, and senior policy fellow Kadri Liik, an expert on Russian domestic and foreign policy. Who are the winners and losers of this historic prisoner swap? What kinds of messages does this send domestically in the US, Russia, and Germany? And why did this take place in Turkey?
This episode was recorded on 5 August 2024.
Bookshelf
The Brothers Lionheart, by Astrid Lindgren
Perestroika, by Mikhail Gorbachev
The Idea of China, by Alicja Bachulska, Mark Leonard, and Janka Oertel
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Brazil is a middle-power powerhouse. The largest and most populous country in Latin America, this founding member of BRICS+ wields strong cultural, economic, and diplomatic influence among other middle powers and beyond. No assessment of non-Western powers would be complete without a trip to Brazil.
In this episode of our special Re:Order series, Mark Leonard welcomes bestselling author on Brazilian foreign policy, Matias Spektor, who is founder and professor at the School of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas in Rio de Janeiro, to discuss Brazil’s role in the new global order. How does the country’s past inform its diplomatic morals and norms today? What international institutions are central to Brazil’s identity and to what extent are they a reaction or complementary to Western-led formats?
This podcast is part of Re:Order and was produced with support from Stiftung Mercator.
This episode was recorded on 24 July 2024.
Bookshelf
Nemesis: One Man and the Battle for Rio, by Misha Glenny
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Following two years of research, ECFR has released its new book, “The Idea of China: Chinese Thinkers on Power, Progress, and People”. Whether demography, AI, feminism, or green transition philosophies, “The Idea of China” seeks to enhance Western understanding of the current discourses and debates within China. After all, a Chinese perspective on these global issues could become one of the country’s leading exports.
In the latest episode of the World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard welcomes his fellow authors – policy fellow Alicja Bachulska, and ECFR Asia programme director and senior policy fellow, Janka Oertel – to discuss the book’s themes: power, progress, and people. How is the global order shifting vis-à-vis China and US competition? In what ways are Chinese thinkers writing and defining progress, and how does this differ from Western conceptions of progress? And what do these thinkers have to say on the demographic future of China?
In:Sight China is supported by Stiftung Mercator and the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), Ireland.
This episode was recorded on 22 July 2024.
Bookshelf
The Idea of China, by Alicja Bachulska, Mark Leonard, and Janka Oertel
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As a founding member of BRICS and a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, India is a leading middle power. With its strategic geographic and economic position, and historical associations with the nonaligned movement, India cannot be ignored when discussing the world’s rapidly shifting global order.
In this episode of ‘The world after the West’ Re:Order series, Mark Leonard welcomes Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, the practice head for south Asia at the Eurasia Group to discuss the role of India in today’s understanding of a new global order. What institutions does India participate in and why? Which of these are most central to its identity? And to what extent are these institutions a counter-reaction to Western hegemony?
This episode was recorded on June 25, 2024.
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The 75th NATO summit has begun. Taking place in Washington, this year the conference welcomes new member country, Sweden, with talks focusing on how NATO allies can continue to defend Ukraine from Russian attacks. But, with a presidential election looming in November, it is unclear what the United States’ future position on NATO will be – and, if the US withdraws defence support, how exactly Europe will respond. Based on ECFR’s latest policy brief by distinguished policy fellow and former NATO assistant secretary general, Camille Grand, the question is: can Europe defend itself without America?
In this month’s episode of Europe in 30 Minutes, deputy director of ECFR Vessela Tcherneva welcomes Camille Grand, Paris office deputy head Camille Lons, Warsaw office deputy head Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, and Berlin office head Jana Puglierin to discuss the national implications for France, Poland, and Germany, should the US withdraw support for NATO. How can Europe reconcile depending less on the US for its defence, while fostering a strong EU-NATO relationship? What would be the biggest challenges facing the French, Polish, and German militaries? And what impact might this have on Ukraine?
Bookshelf
Defending Europe with less America, by Camille Grand
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Against all the odds and polls, the French far-right party National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, landed in third place in the second round of the French snap election. And in a runner-up upset for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, the left-wing alliance New Popular Front took the lead with 182 seats.
In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes the head of ECFR Paris and senior policy fellow Célia Belin to discuss the unexpected results of this snap election. What changed between the first and second round that led to such drastically different results? How are parties organising themselves within their electoral alliances? What are the coalition options for this new distribution in the National Assembly and who is the leading choice for prime minister?
Bookshelf
Ravage, by René Barjavel
Represent, directed by Francois Uzan and Jean-Pascal Zadi
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After 14 years of Conservative government in the United Kingdom, the Labour Party is back. Dissatisfaction with economic and tax policies, various political scandals, and a growing distrust in the Conservative leadership have all contributed to a Labour majority in the UK parliament. And, while the new Labour-led cabinet has already distanced itself from the prospect of rejoining the European Union is now potential for greater economic cooperation and alignment in a post-Brexit EU-UK relationship.
In this emergency episode of the World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR Council Member and French Europe Minister, Laurence Boone, the last British European commissioner before Brexit, Julian King, and Britain’s former permanent representative to the EU, Ivan Rogers, to discuss what the Labour victory means for the UK and Europe. What are prime minister Keir Starmer’s, and new foreign secretary David Lammy’s, plan for future EU-UK relations? And, in turn, what exactly does Europe expect from the UK?
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