Episódios
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October_10th_2012.mp3Economy Shanghaied Global economic activity is the key to shift pessimistic forecasts to a more optimistic outlook.Shanghai Composite Index(Click For Larger Picture)The European crisis has toned down but is a long way from producing impressive economic results for some time. The U.S. economy is stuck in a political shoot out that will drag out to the last second of the Presidential election and whoever wins is still likely to have little improvement for the balance of 2012. The wild card is China, the International Monetary Fund predicted China's economy, the World's second-biggest, will "soft land" by growing 7.8 percent this year and 8.2 percent next year, boosted by interest rate cuts in June and July. China has targeted growth of 7.5 percent this year.Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages and showed early signs of outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index. Strength follows news that the Chinese government added $40 billion of monetary stimulus just prior to the Golden Week celebrated last week. GDP growth will likely be between 7% and the official target of 7.5% a long way from a recession. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional. Some information contained in this blog may no longer be time relevant, please use your own due diligence when investing.
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October_3rd_2012.mp3Debatable Outcome U.S. Presidential debates begin tonight, television news reporters have pulled out all the same old supposed zingers from past U.S. presidential debates to warm up the audience for the imminent round of face-offs and gaffes.General Election: Romney vs. Obama(Click For Larger Picture)With 24 hour round the clock media reports highlighting differences between Republicans and Democrats often at polar opposites.The diverse polar split in the U.S. political arena is unlikely to let up for years to come. Some positive economic news is starting to filter out but the market lacks confidence It is hard to muster confidence in the economy when the fate of the World is in the hands of feuding politicians. Last month we posted a poll showing Obama and Romney virtually tied. Media reports in the last 24 hours show the gap closing once again. The uncertainty and lack of confidence is prevalent among many voters as well as current markets. Pessimism is currently rampant but the market is a trading environment and requires active management it is paramount to think outside the box and apply risk/reward analysis to your investments.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional. Some information contained in this blog may no longer be time relevant, please use your own due diligence when investing.
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September_26th_2012.mp3Emotions Despite recent strength in equities the "Mood" has been negative and most funds have extremely high cash reserves.Market Emotion Cycle(Click For Larger Picture)Markets have always moved on emotion, which has caused extreme levels both up and down. Usually FEAR & GREED drives the market but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. Pundits suggest we have turned generations of investors away with lack of performance and a distrust of market integrity. Prior to reaching optimism is a series of rallies with doubt and despondency. Stock markets are a leading indicator for the economy and it appears a shift is coming. By the time the media picks up on this shift of attitude it will have moved the market.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional. Some information contained in this blog may no longer be time relevant, please use your own due diligence when investing.
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September_19th_2012.mp3Home Sweet Home A root cause of the economic upheaval was the housing market. Today both new housing starts and existing home sales were released for August with impressive results.Housing Starts(Click For Larger Picture)Home sales have recovered after being a root cause of economic collapse. Existing home sales rose strongly for a second straight month, up 7.8 percent in August to an annual unit rate of 4.82 million. This is the largest monthly percentage gain since last August and the highest rate since May 2010. All regions show high single digit gains in the month. Supply on the market, at 6.1 months at the current sales rate, remains tight and may be limiting sales. Currently bullish sentiment is low despite equities challenging recent highs. The bullish sentiment is not as important as confidence which has been lacking with the recent melt up. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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September_12th_2012.mp3China Enters the 21st Century Improvement in European and North American equity markets in the last few weeks is encouraging. The naysayers have now shifted their pessimism toward China.Total Electricity Consumption(Click For Larger Picture)Industrial Production(Click For Larger Picture)Despite positive news in Europe and better than expected U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States which rose 1.7% in the second quarter of 2012 backing up a series of economic indicators showing improvement. Media attention is focusing on a slowdown in China. Market pundits are predicting a 100% chance of a global recession in the coming six months, due to China having a hard landing. What is the best way to find the real growth of China? Historic correlations between electricity consumption and year-over-year GDP growth. The latest number for electricity output/consumption growth in China is 4.5% in July 2012 up from 3.7% in June and 2.7% in May 2012. So we can assume that year-over-year Chinese GDP growth will be between 5% and the official target of 7.7% a long way from a recession. A stagnation in electricity output that fanned speculation of a China slowdown may instead be evidence of an accelerated transition to a more services-based economy.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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September_5th_2012.mp3Too Close to Call Confidence? It is hard to muster confidence in the economy when the fate of the World is in the hands of feuding politicians. But facts are building for an upward turn in Global Equities despite the disarray reported by the media.Romney VS. Obama(Click For Larger Picture)With 24 hour round the clock media reports highlighting differences between Republicans and Democrats often at polar opposites.The diverse polar split in the U.S. political arena is unlikely to let up before the November 2012 Presidential elections. The public is becoming very concerned over the financial situation globally with protesters again in the streets. Many feel credit will be too restrictive to support economic growth. Near panic emotions for some followers and market pundits are sensationalized by media coverage. With all the commotion in the world the U.S. is still the safe harbor, the Worlds main currency is still the U.S. Dollar. It is too close to call the U.S. election with Obama support at 46.4% and Romney at 46.3%. Uncertainty and lack of confidence is prevalent. Pessimism is currently rampant but the market is a trading environment and requires active management it is paramount to think outside the box and apply risk/reward analysis to your investments,There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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August_31st_2012.mp3Dollars and Sense Foreign exchange rates (FOREX) can make or break investment returns.Canadian Dollar - US Dollar(Click For Larger Picture)As Canadians we often value and compare products in Canadian dollars and U.S. dollars. In the last 5 years we have seen the Canadian against the U.S. dollar trade as high as 1.1038 in November 2007 and as low as .7656 in March 2009. To realize the absolute value of currency exchange rates consider this; a $25,000 U.S. car; the post war low on the Canadian dollar was .6179 in 2002 and reached a premium high against the U.S. of 1.1038 in 2007. The $25,000 U.S. car would have cost $40,460 in 2002 but only would have cost only $22,649 in 2007 a 78.6% change. Getting the currency right can make or break ones investment return, even a losing purchase could turn positive when conversions are made. It is paramount that investments are considered and evaluated for upside potential reward measured against potential downside risk.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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August_29th_2012.mp3Economic Growth Pessimism runs rampant despite improving economic data. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012 stronger than earlier report of 1.5%.U.S. GDP Growth Rate(Click For Larger Picture)Despite an improving U.S. job and housing markets, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level it's been in several months. The results are the latest swing in the index, which has been on a rollercoaster. Better than expected U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States Rose 1.7% in the second quarter of 2012 and backs up a series of economic indicators showing improvement.Pending U.S. home sales is at the highest level in 2 ½ years. Earnings are improving with over 60% of reporting companies beating their estimates. Despite recent media attention and suggestions that we are headed into a recession which would be two quarters of negative GDP growth the facts do not support that call. These events must be analyzed as to how it affects individual stocks that will benefit from this ever changing economy with incredible potential. It is paramount that investments are considered and evaluated for upside potential reward measured against potential downside risk.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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August_24th_2012.mp3A Good Thing Commodity prices have been steadily rising over the last two months. Is this a good thing, or bad? CRB Index(Click For Larger Picture)Rising commodity prices have the media and market pundits warning of soaring inflation. Many analysts warn that the current easy money policy by global central banks will devalue currency and push commodities including food stock to levels unaffordable by many already unemployed. However bleak things seem, there is often another side to the story. In 2008 commodity prices peaked and fell 58% causing markets and the economy to crash. It took two years to recover and peaked in 2011 having risen 81% off depressed prices. Over the last year the economy and commodity prices have been subdued. Three months ago commodities bottomed out and economic activity started to pick up. The CRB index is rising but into overhead consolidation which should contain any run away prices and support is at June's low. This configuration will support increased economic growth while keeping inflation at bay.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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August_22nd_2012.mp3Back To Where We Were Back to where we were. The housing market which was a key factor in the economic melt down has stabilized and is up 10.4% year over year. Existing Home Sales(Click For Larger Picture)Over the last month we have seen the yield on U.S. treasury notes move up 50 basis points. An upward move of a ½ % could slow the recovery or may be the catalyst to encourage a surge of buying as rates show a bottom. Currently bullish sentiment is low despite equities challenging recent highs. The bullish sentiment is not as important as confidence which has been lacking with the recent melt up. Without confidence even the simplest accomplishments are beyond ones grasp. With many investors at current extremes contrary opinion is important; historically turning points come at these levels. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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August_15th_2012.mp3Gold Consolidation What goes up goes up must come down. I will be back after these messages with a discussion. Gold(Click For Larger Picture)Media and market participants often get caught up in the mood of the moment and excite emotions to a fever pitch. Markets feed on these emotions and take things to a euphoric level. Media sensationalizes the movement by finding reinforcing reasons for even higher levels. Infomercials bolster the fever and what goes up goes up goes up. Pessimism also spreads like wildfire as negative news brings more negative news and panic and fear set in. Does it ever end? Newton's law of gravity will come into play "What goes up must come down; for every action there is equal and opposite reaction." One must learn to think outside of the box and step off a trend before it ends. Parabolic moves are a tell tale sign that warns us to be nimble and assess our current positions. Many expect Gold to recover and post new highs however the pattern suggests a consolidation in the $1400 to $1700 area.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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August_8th_2012.mp3A Positive Negative Market sentiment is at bearish extremes. Media reports continue to shock investors with re-takes of old news. European woes are of great concern but the markets seem to have discounted with recent strength in equities. Market Sentiment(Click For Larger Picture)Investor sentiment indicators are at near panic levels. Despite this the S&P 500 index closed above 1400 yesterday and is set to test this years high of 1422.38. It has been four years since we traded higher. The market is finding strength even before the "Fiscal Cliff" and the ugliest Presidential election campaign as U.S. politicians continue to dig in along party lines. Markets move on emotions, usually FEAR & GREED, but lately it has been near panic. Currently bullish sentiment is as low as at any time since the recessions end. With investors at current extremes contrary opinion is important; historically turning points come at these levels.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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July_18th_2012.mp3Oil Spark In the last 20 days crude oil has jumped 16% and could signify an economic turn while Global economic forecasts are in disarray. Crude Oil(Click For Larger Picture)Crude oil is volatile in the last 4 months; from highs of $110.55 in March of this year to the lows of $77.28 last month, a $33.27 decline or 30%. The prior 5 month period saw crude oil jump from $74.95 in October 2011 to $110.55 a $35.60 rise or 36%. So what we have proved is crude oil is volatile. Then why is this latest 16% rise of late significant? Fiddling while Rome burns! European economies are in disarray causing concern globally and dire forecasts of the future. But why would crude oil rise if we are heading into a World wide slowdown? Perhaps we are seeing a paradigm shift that few foresee. After pumping liquidity into international economies do we have a spark that has ignited oil? Pessimism is at a peak gloom and doom is prevalent in every media report. Little is expected from the massive U.S. market with political turmoil expected to continue into the 2012 elections. Prepare for the unexpected, be ready for a turn it will occur when the least expect it!There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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July_11th_2012(1).mp3High Road, Low Road The S&P 500 stock index has doubled from the lows set in 2009. Fear and bearish forecasts still surrounded equity markets. We are currently within 2% of 2011 highs high and 5.6% off our 2012 high. S&P 500 Index(Click For Larger Picture)European woes and Global debt concerns, continue to plaque equity markets. News media and many market pundits remain negative. Pessimism is rampant, the fiscal cliff, the U.S. debt ceiling, Chinese accounting, Russian corruption, U.S. political impasse, Arab spring implosion, Bank reforms and Iran.The S&P 500 Index which has had a series of higher highs and higher lows currently 1,343.41 trapped between near term support of 1287.62 and resistance of 1440.22. A challenge of the all time high on the S&P 500 (1576.59) is inline with the wider uptrend of 1563.55. Current drift needs energy, volumes are low and confidence is non existent. Despite the pattern of higher highs and lower lows there is little reason to expect a positive outcome but with low interest rates and high cash holdings it remains a likely possibility latter this year.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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July_4th_2012.mp3Shifting Emotions Pessimism was at a peak before Friday's jump in stock prices. Most funds have the lowest equity component in 15 years. Is market emotion turning positive? Market Emotion Cycle(Click For Larger Picture)Despite media focus on the European Union and rising tensions over Iranian nuclear development along with Syrian suppression of another Arab spring. A shift in Market Emotion is digging out from near panic and despondency. Markets have always moved on emotions, usually FEAR & GREED, but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt.It appears we may be gaining confidence, as shorts scramble to cover positions. With confidence you can reach truly amazing heights; without confidence, even the simplest accomplishments are beyond ones grasp. Stock markets are a leading indicator for the economy and it appears a shift is coming. By the time the media picks up on this shift of attitude it will have moved the market.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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June_27th_2012.mp3Natural Gas In the last 2 months despite media reports of a bankrupt Greece and the suggested complete melt down of the euro zone along with rising tensions over Iranian nuclear development and Syrian suppression of another Arab spring, something interesting happened. Natural Gas(Click For Larger Picture)Markets have always moved on emotions, usually FEAR & GREED, but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. Many market participants have dug in cutting usual volumes in half. Over the last two months an important harbinger has occurred. Natural Gas prices have risen 55%.From a low of 1.90 on April 20th we traded 2.95 this morning. The use of Natural Gas and realization of a growing market is key for the industry which has been decimated over the last few years. This turn may be a harbinger of better times ahead. Market shifts are a leading indicator for the economy.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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June_20th_2012.mp3Bottom In Rates Interest Rates on 10 year U.S. T-Notes have likely seen the lows hitting 1.44% on June 1st all rates could start to rise including mortgage rates. U.S. 10-year T-Note(Click For Larger Picture)Ten year U.S. treasuries have been as high as 2.4% in March 2012 and as low as 1.44% this month. These rates could rise to 2% shortly and as high as 4.3% next year. It is hard to believe at this level but normal 10 year interest rates historically are 7%. If rates normalize capital erosion could be staggering, many conservative investors could find their savings tied up in bond funds in the wrong place at the wrong time. Bonds are risky at current levels. Seniors and savers would welcome a 7% return but would hurt current 10 year bond investors. Rates will rise, mortgage rates will rise and this may boost home sales as buyers attempt to lock in low rate loans. The U.S. Federal reserve has pledged to keep short rates low for the next 2 years; however investors and borrowers should be aware that rising rates could have catastrophic results. A 10 year bond could lose 7 ½% of principal value if rates rose from current 1.66% to 2.4% and a staggering 38% of principal lost at 7%.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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June_13th_2012.mp3Currency Valuation Currency levels matter, as Canadians we often value and compare products in Canadian dollars and U.S. dollars. CADUSD(Click For Larger Picture)In the last 5 years we have seen the Canadian against the U.S. dollar trade as high as 1.1038 in November 2007 and as low as .7656 in March 2009.To realize the absolute value of currency exchange rates consider this; a $25,000 U.S. car; the post war low on the Canadian dollar was .6179 in 2002 and reached a premium high against the U.S. of 1.1038 in 2007. The $25,000 U.S. car would have cost $40,460 in 2002 but only would have cost only $22,649 in 2007 a 78.6% change. Getting the currency right can make or break ones investment return, even a losing purchase could turn positive when conversions are made.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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June_6th_2012.mp3Gaining Support A month ago U.S. stocks were at a 3 year high, turn on a news report yesterday and media reports are disusing a crash.Dow Jones Industrial Average(Click For Larger Picture)Three years ago March 6th 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 6,469 a month ago we hit 13,338.66 more than double. The advance had corrections along the way 14.6% in the spring of 2010, and 19.2% in the summer of 2011. As discussed in the March 7th radio show a consolidation correction was expected. From last months high we have fallen 9.8%. Markets do not go straight up or straight down but there are days it seems that way. Over the last 5 years, a 9.8% correction has occurred, is it over? Unlikely since 9.8% is shallow and pessimism is at a high; but with higher highs and higher lows a challenge of the 2007 all time high of 14,198.10 is expected over the next year a further 16% move.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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May_30th_2012.mp3Inflation? Inflation or Deflation; too many dollars chasing too few goods or too many goods with too few dollars.Inflation Rate by Country(Click For Larger Picture)There is no shortage of dollars in the system with Global liquidity near all time highs. Note India's inflation rate of 7.23% leads the pack by double as that country is growing at over 7%; China is growing at over 8% but reports inflation of 3.4%. Most countries are in the 2 to 3% level in growth and inflation.Supply / Demand for products in North America are not out of whack as sales and inventories are in line. Inflation as a concern in North America is relegated to the distant future. Developed economies have not fully healed and consumers are not yet ready to stand on their own two feet, any meaningful inflation is still a couple of years away. Perhaps it is time to reassess ones exposure to Gold's and Oils that are so prevalent in Canadian Stocks and over exposed in Canadian Mutual Funds, With the Canadian dollar falling against the U.S. perhaps it is time to increase ones exposure to U.S. equities.There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation.Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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