Episódios
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Global equities ended Thursday’s trading session mostly higher, with defensive and defence stocks leading the gains while big tech was mostly lower. This came while Walmart’s CEO warned yesterday that tariffs would force it to raise prices this year - even after the recent decrease in duties on China - and data included softer US producer prices as well as underwhelming retail sales. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what this means for bond markets and why he would cut the allocation to higher-risk segments. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses his expectations for a weaker Swiss franc and highlights his preferred currency pair.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:31 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
06:22 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
10:49 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva
15:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
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European markets closed lower on Wednesday after the positive sentiment induced by the weekend’s interim trade deal between China and the US seemed to run of steam. The Dow Jones closed in the red, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed the day slightly higher, mainly driven by the mega-cap names and a few select beneficiaries of President Trump’s trade deals in Doha. US Treasury prices and gold felt the effect of easing trade tensions, as well as the market revising its expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025. Asia’s equity markets were lower today. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to provide extra insight into gold’s move lower.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:24 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
05:47 Gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
09:16 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
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US markets rallied on the back of a US-China trade truce and lower-than-expected inflation data, easing recession concerns and boosting equities. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, driven by gains in tech stocks, such as Nvidia and AMD, following a major semiconductor deal with a Saudi Arabian AI firm. In Asia, Hong Kong's market gained ground following strong earnings from JD.com, whereas Japan's Nikkei 225 experienced a slight decline after a 13-day uptrend. Looking ahead, European shares are poised to open flat, building on the previous day's positive session, which was fuelled by improved sentiment in Germany and a record high for the DAX. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, observes that Q1 earnings have exceeded expectations, but companies are issuing cautious guidance due to reduced visibility on the economic outlook.
00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
00:27 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
06:47 Earnings/Equity Market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
11:08 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
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After the US and China both slashed their reciprocal tariff rates, US markets responded with jubilation yesterday, sparking an impressive rally with the S&P 500 building on its recent run as investors priced out the chance of a downturn. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by David Meier, Senior Economist, who shares his insights on the impact of recent trade talks, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the outlook for digital assets following the recent recovery in crypto markets.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:38 Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing
06:13 Trade talks progress: Dave Meier, Senior Economist
12:41 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
16:44 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
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The United States and China have taken a step towards resolving their trade dispute, with both sides describing their initial talks in Switzerland this weekend as constructive. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned substantial progress, lifting equity markets in Asia and boosting investor sentiment. Meanwhile, safe havens like gold are feeling the pressure. Our guest, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us to discuss where he sees the most upside as good news on the trade landscape keeps on rolling in, at least for now. Tune in to find out how these developments are moving markets.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
07:02 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
09:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The US and the UK agreed a new trade deal yesterday, making the UK the first country to reach a deal with the US since US President Trump introduced new tariffs a month ago. Although this boosted global market sentiment, with US and European markets closing higher, UK stocks underperformed. The deal also weighed on safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and gold. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s rate cut by 25 basis points was seen as a supportive move for the UK economy. Asia-Pacific markets were largely higher overnight, buoyed by China's stronger-than-expected export growth in April and a narrowing import decline, which brings some relief to Beijing ahead of tariff talks with the US this weekend. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets is Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:27 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
07:26 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva
11:45 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
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The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting yesterday and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that with inflation still running above target, the Fed has no intention of cutting rates pre-emptively. He also warned that if tariff levels remain where they are, then a risk is posed to economic growth and inflation. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, provides more insight into the Fed’s decision making and its market impact on today’s show and Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil market, sharing his insights into the latest market events.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:38 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
06:49 Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
10:22 Bond market update post-Fed: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
17:36 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
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It took two attempts, but German conservative leader Merz was elected chancellor by parliament on Tuesday after an unprecedented defeat on the first attempt got his coalition government off to a wobbly start. Market sentiment took another U-turn yesterday, with global equities falling back for a second day ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve rate decision. News that trade negotiations are going well and that initial US and China trade talks will take place this Saturday did little to improve investors’ mood. Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses how markets reacted to the news and provides more details on Beijing’s policy measures as well as the geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.
00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
00:28 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
06:09 Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong
14:29 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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US equities struggled yesterday as the S&P 500 index snapped its nine-day winning streak with a modest rotation into defensive stocks. Meanwhile, the broad US dollar sell-off against Asian currencies is fuelling speculation that regional economies are allowing their currencies to strengthen to gain leverage in US trade negotiations. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, who shares his insights on Japan as well as the recent outperformance of emerging markets relative to developed market equities.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:20 Japan and EM Asia equities by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy Research)
12:04,8 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Global equity markets have largely recovered their losses since 2 April, or Liberation Day, with Australia, Mexico and Germany's DAX among the best performers. Warren Buffett will step down as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of the year after 45 years. Brent oil falls below USD 60 a barrel, a four-year low, after OPEC+ announces further supply increases. The Taiwan dollar has jumped 5% against the USD, its biggest intraday gain in 30 years, sparking speculation that Asian countries are seeking to revalue their currencies to win US trade concessions. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that Germany's DAX index is within 2% of its all-time high, reflecting its relative strength against US equities.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:31 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing
06:28 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
10:37 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Equity markets continued their multi-day rally yesterday with the S&P 500 nearing its ‘Liberation Day’ level after the fastest 8-session gain since November 2020. The rally was driven by upbeat earnings from Microsoft and Meta. This optimism has continued overnight after China said it’s evaluating trade talks with the US, boosting optimism that tariff tensions will come down. And we have Markus Waeber from Real Estate Advisory on the show today to talk about the strong April performance of the Swiss Real Estate market and the unchanged positive outlook.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:27,5 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
06:17 Real estate update by Markus Waeber (Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence)
11:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Donald Trump and his policies remain a key focus for investors, particularly today as he reaches his 100th day in office. Yesterday, Trump signed orders aimed at easing the pressure on carmakers, whilst Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that the US has secured a trade deal with an unnamed country, prompting a rise in US shares. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have fallen for a seventh consecutive day, driven by weak economic data that has fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to avoid a recession. Overnight, macroeconomic data from China and Japan was released, with both countries reporting lower-than-expected figures, suggesting early signs of damage from the ongoing trade war. A closer look at individual company reports reveals a mixed picture during this earnings season. To provide further insight into this complex earnings landscape, our Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, joins our show today.
00:00 Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
00:38 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
07:38 Q1 earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
11:58 Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
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The markets have seen some brief respite from volatility, thanks to positive developments in ongoing trade talks and upbeat company reports. However, this week promises to be action-packed, with four of the tech giants - Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon - set to release their earnings reports, which will likely dictate market direction. Joining us on the show is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who shares his expert insights on the recent surge in digital assets and offers his take on whether this rally has legs.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:31 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
07:13 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
12:01 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Equity markets continued their multi-day rally yesterday on US Federal Reserve comments indicating an openness to rate cuts and signs that trade negotiations were progressing. China may exempt some US goods from tariffs and Apple plans to shift the assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India as soon as next year. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva, who shares his expertise on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:24 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
05:48 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva
09:59 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Market sentiment has shifted towards optimism once again, with the US dollar gaining strength as concerns over President Trump's potential interference with the Federal Reserve's independence have eased. A two-day stock market rally has been fuelled by hopes that the US-China trade tensions will not intensify further. Meanwhile, recent data suggests that the economy may be heading towards a stagflationary environment in the coming months. Joining us to share his insights on the volatile gold market is Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:24 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
06:20 Gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
10:02 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Stocks jumped and the dollar edged up as the Trump administration defused some of the tension that had rattled financial markets in recent sessions. President Donald Trump said yesterday that he does not intend to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told investors that the US-China trade dispute is unsustainable and that a deal will be made. This came as the International Monetary Fund slashed their global growth forecasts, with widespread downgrades after the US tariff announcements. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his views on what to expect from the ECB and the Fed in terms of monetary policy in this environment and what it means for the economy.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:34 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing
06:38 Comments on ECB, US recession risks, Fed: David Kohl, Chief Economist
12:38 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Market uncertainty has taken hold, with the US dollar hitting 15-month lows, stocks plummeting – including the Nasdaq, which has entered bear market territory – and credit spreads spiking. In contrast, Asian markets remain relatively resilient, while gold and digital assets rally. To make sense of these trends, we're joined by two expert guests: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research. Together, we delve into the latest news across financial markets and explore what's driving investor sentiment.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
00:31 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
05:55 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
09:57 Bitcoin and gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
13:32 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Technology stocks were weak, with Nvidia shares down 7% following the imposition of export restrictions to China and other countries. In a speech in Chicago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the potential dilemma of balancing inflation control with economic growth and indicated a cautious monetary approach. The European Central Bank is expected to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks about all things commodities, from the fading US dominance in energy markets to gold reaching new all-time highs. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, talks about the investment implications of the increased likelihood of a US recession.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:03 Commodities update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)
11:17 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
15:39,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
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The ongoing tariff saga remains the dominant theme, with investors waiting to see if tensions will ease or escalate. This uncertainty is taking a toll on consumer sentiment and investor expectations. Following recent volatility, markets were relatively calm yesterday, with European bourses ending the day in positive territory, while US stocks closed marginally in the red. However, in after-hours trading, Nvidia’s shares plummeted by over 6% after the company faced new restrictions on its exports to China. Both the US dollar and US Treasury yields stabilised somewhat. In overnight trading in Asia, most markets fell, despite China releasing robust economic data. One notable exception was gold, which continued its upward trajectory. To provide further insights into the equity markets, particularly banking stocks, we are joined today by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy.
00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
00:24 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
07:39 Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
11:52 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Markets are showing signs of stabilisation as the US administration appears to be reconsidering its tariff policy. This has boosted auto stocks in particular, driven by reports that President Trump may modify the tariff package for auto-related imports from Mexico and Canada. Additionally, US Treasury yields have decreased following their sharpest increase in twenty years last week. Joining us to discuss the latest on digital assets is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
01:05 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
07:29 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
12:52 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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