Episódios
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Last week's Federal Reserve press conference was a little different to usual, coming hot on the heels of the election. Fed Chair Jerome Powell fielded several questions about President-elect Donald Trump, offering nothing in response. However, the Fed can’t avoid talking about Trump forever though. We're in for an interesting twelve months, and it might all start with the upcoming meeting in December.
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The latest inflation figures will be a highlight in the US this week, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday in Dallas about the economic outlook. Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s survey of expectations will be in focus, as will the latest housing market report from the Real Estate Institute. On the corporate front, the international reporting season is winding down but we'll still hear from Home Depot, Tencent, Burberry, Walt Disney and Alibaba. There's quite a bit to monitor across the NZX and ASX too, with earnings releases due from Goodman Property, Mainfreight and Infratil here in Aotearoa, and from Aristocrat and Xero across the Tasman.
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There’s a lot of good investment wisdom out there. Ensure you’re well-diversified, stick to quality assets, don’t overtrade and keep fees to a minimum are but a few examples. One of the simplest but most important, especially it comes to shares (or any growth asset, for that matter) is to maintain a long-term view. That can be difficult, especially during periods of uncertainty (which come frequently). However, it really is non-negotiable. If you don’t feel you can stick it out for at least five (if not ten) years, the sharemarket probably isn’t the right place for your money.
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Brace yourself, this week will be one of the biggest of the year for investors! It's not often a Federal Reserve meeting takes a back seat to other events, but the US election will absolutely be the focal point in the days ahead. The Fed decision will follow later in the week, with markets expecting a 0.25% rate cut, and monetary policy decisions will also be forthcoming from the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England. Locally, the key release will be the labour force report for the September quarter. This is the last major data point ahead of the November Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting.
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The US presidential election is almost upon us, and recent polls suggest it’s too close to call. That bodes well for former President Donald Trump, who performed much better than the polls suggested in both 2016 and 2020. Maybe that’s why the betting odds are tilted in his favour and Wall Street now views Trump as the favourite. What might this mean for interest rates, the US dollar and the sharemarket?
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It's a busy week ahead on the US economic calendar, with PCE inflation for September as well as the latest ISM index and the all important jobs report. Inflation will be in focus across the Tasman, while the highlight of a holiday-shortened week in New Zealand with be the latest ANZ Business Outlook. On the corporate front, investors can look forward to earnings releases from some of the tech heavyweights as Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple all announce results.
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The shares or property debate remains alive and well, especially in housing-obsessed New Zealand. Some property people will never touch shares. Likewise, some share investors see property as far too much work for a relatively modest reward. Shares and property have many fundamental value drivers in common, but they are also very different. Let's crunch the numbers to see which stacks up best, and compare the pros and cons of each.
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This week's key releases will be October flash PMIs, the Fed Beige Book, European consumer confidence and the Tokyo CPI in Japan. The international quarterly corporate reporting season continues as well, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results. Some of the highlights are likely to include 3M, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Tesla, Unilever, UPS and Colgate-Palmolive. Closer to home, markets will tune in to a speech from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr in Washington DC.
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The Reserve Bank's bumper OCR cut gave the local sharemarket a boost earlier this month. With further reductions expected in the coming months, New Zealand shares could be in for a brighter period. Listed companies should see improved earnings as the recession abates and the economy recovers, which bodes well for dividends as well as share prices. As investors face steadily falling returns from term deposits, we’re also likely to see money flow into other assets, including shares.
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The international corporate reporting season ramps up this week, with numerous heavyweights set to announce earnings. With the S&P 500 in the US sitting at record highs, this will be important for the direction of markets. Some of the highlights in the coming days are likely to include Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, LVMH, Nestle, Netflix, TSMC and Procter & Gamble. It'll be a busy week on the local front, with the September inflation report taking centre stage on Wednesday. This will be important as markets look ahead to the final OCR decision of the year in November. We’ll also get the latest housing report from REINZ, as well as the results of another dairy auction, card spending and the ANZ truckometer.
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Gold has been one of the best performing assets these last two years, rising more than 40 per cent and even outpacing the S&P 500 index in the US. Long regarded as a safe-haven asset, it is traditionally favoured by those worried about the health of the global economy and financial system. However, gold has also proven to be a useful diversifier, making it a candidate for inclusion in mainstream investment portfolios.
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We have a lot of clients from farming backgrounds, either past or present. They’re great people, and many have spent decades overcoming a plethora of challenges to build very successful businesses. When the time comes to think beyond the farm, investing in a portfolio dominated by shares, listed property, private equity and fixed income doesn’t always come naturally. Having less control and influence is a mental hurdle for some, while diversifying far and wide can also be a new concept. However, farmers that can get their head around these differences often become very astute investors.
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US tech investor Nat Friedman famously said "pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." He wasn’t referring to financial markets, but there’s something we can learn from that as investors. There’s nothing wrong with being mindful of risks and let’s be honest, at any given time the list of concerning issues is a lengthy one. However, when it comes to investing being an optimist pays off.
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The New Zealand dollar has rebounded strongly in the last couple of months. It’s been sitting comfortably above US$0.63 in recent days, up eight per cent from under US$0.59 in late July. That’s the highest in more than a year and not far from the long-term average of US$0.66. What's driving this recent surge, where might the NZ dollar go from here and what does this mean for the economy?
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The US labour market will be in focus this week, as investors speculate on the likelihood of another 50-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November. There will also be a debate between the US Vice Presidential candidates in New York this week. Locally, business confidence will be in the spotlight with the ANZ Business Outlook for September due on Monday and the NZIER's QSBO out the next day.
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The Federal Reserve started its easing cycle with a bang last week. It cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.50 per cent, a bigger move than some had expected. Is that an ominous sign for the outlook, or will it be the catalyst for markets to keep pushing higher? Central banks don’t have a great track record of taming inflation without causing recessions, but for now investors are keeping the faith.
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Global growth will be in focus this week, with the release of flash purchasing managers’ indices for September. We’ll also get the latest PCE inflation report in the US, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. On the central banking front, a monetary policy decision is due across the Tasman, although no change is expected. The domestic economic calendar is sparse, although there is quite a bit of corporate news to follow. The retail sector will be in focus with results from Kathmandu and The Warehouse, while Fonterra is also scheduled to deliver its latest earnings release.
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It’s been a difficult few years for first home buyers. Just when borrowing costs started falling in 2020, prices started rising sharply to offset any extra spending capacity buyers had. When the dust settled and prices started coming back to earth, mortgage rates had started to rise rapidly. The housing market stabilised early last year, and now we’ve seen mortgage rates start heading south. Where does that leave potential buyers, and is now a good time to pounce on that first home?
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Looking ahead, this week is shaping up as a very busy one with some extremely important events taking place across markets. The Federal Reserve decision in the US will be the highlight, with the first interest rate cut of this cycle (and the first in more than four years) looming. While a 0.25% cut seems assured, markets are ascribing a 35% chance of a larger, 0.50% cut. Here in New Zealand we’ll get the results of another dairy auction, as well as economic growth figures for the June 2024 quarter. Will these figures still look recessionary, and just how bad will they be?
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Talk of a capital gains tax is back in the headlines. It’s hard to see a National-led government making any such changes to our tax system. However, it could be back on the agenda when we inevitably see a change of government. Do we need a capital gains tax in New Zealand, and what are the drawbacks of implementing such a radical change?
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