Episódios
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Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 179.
Links:
PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward
00:00 Intro and welcome Ed Dowd
00:46 Macro picture
02:14 On the precipice of a slowdown in the economy
03:15 State of the real economy
04:30 Disconnect in the U.S. stock market, a fast and furious correction
10:17 Preparing for the correction: allocating portion to T-Bills
11:38 Generational opportunity
13:30 Growing debt and deficits
15:45 Need the austerity candidate
16:58 A looming crisis
18:48 UBI and a CBDC
22:25 Gold
24:30 Toxic brew
27:29 Erosion of the middle class
29:00 Inflation
30:40 Rate cut
33:00 Policy error of the Fed
36:20 Real estate
38:00 Immigration
40:13 GDI for average middle class went up under Trump
42:12 Chaos creates opportunity
46:12 Phinance Technologies: Providing Alternative Perspectives on the Market
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Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group and a CNBC contributor, discusses the mixed and uneven state of the economy. He highlights the contrasting trends in different sectors, such as housing, consumer spending, and manufacturing. Boockvar also discusses the impact of government spending and the labor market on the overall economy. He emphasizes the confusion and challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing inflation and interest rates. Boockvar shares his outlook on the future, including the potential for slower US growth, the importance of Asia in driving economic growth, and his investment preferences in commodities and Asian markets.
Links:
Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar
Bleakley Financial Group: https://www.bleakley.com/
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar
00:51 Macro view, “the most mixed and uneven economy that I've seen” and it feels more like a 1.5% growth rate rather than 3%
04:47 Labor market
05:45 What’s happening in the rest of the world economies?
08:00 Inflation
09:11 The Fed and interest rates
11:03 Bear steepener
13:40 New normal
18:40 Housing market outlook
21:45 When will the rising debt/deficit be a problem?
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Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 178 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy and market.
In this episode, Mike Green discusses some of the implications of systematic and passive investment strategies and how they've led to the current market conditions.
Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.
Links:
Follow Mike on Twitter/x: https://twitter.com/profplum99
Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/
Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/
0:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green
0:56 Macro picture
2:27 Markets
4:30 The Boomers always win
8:38 Assessment of the health of the economy
12:00 Reduction in hours, increase in part-time work
12:55 Impact of passive investing
20:40 Largest stocks most affected by passive flows
23:00 Everyone has become automated
25:17 How does this end? An accelerated reversal of the gains?
28:49 Perception of retirement wealth
31:00 Ponzi funds
35:30 Social security
37:00 Markets divorced from fundamentals
41:09 The Fed
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Economist and investor Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 176 to discuss the current state of the economy and markets.
Link:
https://www.treussard.com/julia
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome Jonathan Treussard
00:52 Macro view, confusing data, too much volatility
04:11 Wealth inequality
05:33 AI
06:33 Is the economy healthy?
07:55 Money illusion
10:07 Bubbles and assessing market valuations
14:36 Geopolitics
17:50 Middle class
19:50 From musician to economist
27:15 Changing perception of America
30:34 Market risks: Nvidia, CRE, Private Equity, and Private Credit
36:00 Banking system
38:33 Concerns about CRE and private credit
41:37 Making decisions under uncertainty
45:12 Parting thoughts
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Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 175 to discuss the economy, the risk in commercial real estate, the upcoming presidential election, and the status of the American dream.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen
1:55 Macro view today, an indication that the tide is going back out
4:40 Residential housing will be the last headwind
5:50 Health of the economy? ‘We’re hiding a lot’
7:10 Commercial could be the source of the next financial crisis
11:50 Presidential election
14:00 What a Trump victory would mean
16:00 Our debt and deficit — We’re headed toward a crisis
18:40 The Fed
21:40 Fed’s focus on language and turning markets into a Kindergarten exercise
23:30 We’ve turned the Fed into a corporate earnings exercise
26:00 Inflation
28:31 The American Dream
31:00 Parting thoughts
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"Reformed" hedge fund manager James Lavish, the author of The Informationist newsletter and founder/managing partner of The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, joins Julia La Roche on episode 174 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, the pockets of recession especially in the private sector, and a deep dive into the debt problem in the U.S.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish
The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/
The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome James Lavish
1:00 Macro view
2:30 Pockets of recession, fiscal dominance, inflation
5:08 Highly manipulated numbers, CPI
10:30 Deficit spending and the economy
12:40 Debt spiral and why the U.S. is a ‘zombie’
17:20 They’re going to print so much money it’s going to shock people
19:50 U.S. Treasuries
28:15 Stagflation
30:00 Dallas Fed survey: recession red flag?
35:00 The government will continue to recklessly spend
37:03 FOMC and jobs
40:50 Parting thoughts, asset allocation
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Dave Collum, Professor of organic chemistry at Cornell University and Zero Hedge Contributor, joins The Julia La Roche to share his views on the economy and markets. In this episode, Professor Collum makes a case that the market today looks “more insane than the dot-com bubble” and why we could be headed for a 40-year bear market.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/DavidBCollum
Year-end review: https://peakprosperity.com/dave-collums-2023-year-in-review-down-some-dark-rabbit-holes/
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Dave Collum
1:18 Lessons in chemistry
7:00 Investing — bonds, equities, gold
9:10 Gold
14:47 Elizabeth Warren
17:15 Financial crisis
20:13 Case for a 40-year bear market
21:30 Macro view — about to start a serious downturn and we’ve had no pain
29:30 Demographics
30:58 Tailwinds
33:20 BRICs
36:40 Election
42:02 How do you prepare for this macro environment + bear market thesis + end of American experiment
45:00 Prepper
47:19 Bitcoin
49:08 Performance this year — ‘an old man’s portfolio’
51:23 Not your typical Ivy League professor + campus culture today as someone who is “Trump tolerant” + cancel culture
1:04:37 Optimism
1:11:58 Closing
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John Cochrane, the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and former professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and, before that, the Department of Economics, joins Julia on episode 172. Professor Cochrane is the author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level book, and he writes the Grumpy Economist blog. and In this episode, Professor Cochrane discusses the current state of the US economy, the fiscal theory of the price level, the causes and challenges of inflation, and the concerning levels of government debt. He emphasizes the need for supply-side efficiency and fiscal discipline to sustain economic growth and control inflation. Cochrane also highlights the limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the importance of responsible fiscal policy in addressing the fiscal picture. He suggests reforming the tax code, social programs and reducing middle-class subsidies are necessary to ensure long-term sustainability.
Cochrane concludes by emphasizing the need to pay attention to incentives and the interconnectedness of various policies. He also mentions the potential of AI and biotech to drive future growth and warns against stifling innovation.
Takeaways:
The US economy is currently experiencing low unemployment and a bout of inflation caused by government stimulus. The fiscal theory of the price level explains that money, government debt, and inflation are interconnected, and the quantity of money and government bonds both impact inflation. The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has limitations in controlling inflation, and fiscal policy plays a crucial role in addressing inflation and government debt. To fix the fiscal picture, it is necessary to reform the tax code, social programs, and reduce middle-class subsidies to ensure long-term sustainability. Responsible fiscal policy, economic growth, and steady primary surpluses are essential to control inflation and maintain a stable economy. The US economy may be more fragile than it appears, with concerns about the ability to pay back debts and the difficulty of selling longer-term debt. Forecasting inflation is challenging, and the Federal Reserve and other forecasters have often missed the mark. The mechanics of inflation are similar to the stock market, and there are risks of higher inflation in certain scenarios. Fiscal dominance refers to the constraint on monetary policy caused by fiscal policy. The ability to control inflation through fiscal policy may be more challenging now. The Federal Reserve was slow to act on inflation and needs to consider a wider range of scenarios and incentives in its decision-making process. The biggest economic story in our lifetimes is long-term growth and the importance of embracing new technologies and innovation. Incentives play a crucial role in solving economic problems and driving growth. Social programs and the tax code need to be examined together to understand the full impact on incentives and redistribution. The interconnectedness of policies and the need to consider the whole system when addressing economic challenges.Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/JohnHCochrane
Website: https://www.johnhcochrane.com/
Substack: https://substack.com/@grumpyeconomist
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Fiscal-Theory-Price-Level/dp/0691242240
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome John Cochrane
01:30 Macro picture and understanding inflation
04:00 We’re a supply-limited economy, more money and stimulus thrown down ratholes won’t make the economy grow
05:30 The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
11:35 Limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy
17:00 History lesson on 1970s, 1980s inflation
19:00 Fiscal picture today and possible solutions
25:00 The fragility of the US economy
31:00 More persistent inflation
37:55 Fiscal Dominance
41:00 Assessing the Fed's actions
48:00 Long-run growth is the only thing that matters
53:00 The Role of Incentives
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Investor and entrepreneur Dave Friedberg, the CEO of The Production Board and CEO of Ohalo and co-host/"Bestie" on The All-In Podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 171 to discuss his company's breakthrough technology that could solve world hunger.
Ohalo, a startup that's been in stealth mode, recently filed a patent for its groundbreaking technology, Boosted Breeding. This novel, non-transgenic plant breeding system has the potential to revolutionize agriculture by sustainably increasing crop productivity and yields by 50 to 100%. After years of research by Ohalo's scientists, the technology has been proven effective across various crops. The technology can be applied to a wide range of food crops, including those that currently lack commercial seed systems, such as potatoes. With its significant potential to enhance food availability and sustainability, Ohalo's Boosted Breeding is poised to make a substantial impact on the global agricultural landscape.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/friedberg
Ohalo: https://ohalo.com/
The Production Board: https://www.tpb.co/
The All-In Pod: https://www.allinpodcast.co/
Episode 18 featuring Dave Friedberg: https://youtu.be/0ARf45HiS1M?si=yWFwnCPdJ1fv_Nxj
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Dave Friedberg
1:42 Big picture + challenges facing humans today
3:18 A new enlightenment or a new dark ages?
6:33 Independent thought and understanding through reason
9:15 Ohalo and Boosted Breeding breakthrough
13:20 Going all in as CEO of Ohalo
18:00 Results from Boosted Breeding
22:44 Benefits to farmers
27: 52 Potential impacts of the technology
34:30 State of the economy, No. 1 issue is debt
41:00 Optimism is technology and productivity gains
45:17 Parting thoughts
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Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 170.
In this episode, Elliott discusses the macro picture and highlights that the economy is in an income-driven expansion, where people are spending out of their income, leading to sustainable growth. However, this income dominance is creating challenges for the Federal Reserve, as inflation remains elevated and nominal growth is strong. Elliott believes that the Fed will continue to collect more information before making any significant policy changes.
He points out that assets are in an “air pocket” right now, and that the biggest risk for equity investors is the economy remains too strong, creating pressure on the bond market. He suggests that investors should consider holding more cash, allocate a portion to gold and commodities, and be cautious about stocks and bonds.
Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BobEUnlimited
Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Bob Elliott
01:15 Macro picture today + income-driven economic expansion
03:34 Different angles of looking at inflation
06:11 Fed's policy outlook
09:15 Implications of higher for longer
11:50 Long-end of the bond market is the critical driver of asset prices
14:47 The biggest risk for equity investors is the economy remains too strong that creates pressure on the bond market
16:00 Allocating in this setup
18:30 We’re in an 'air pocket’ right now
23:19 The Fed
25:50 Gold allocation and commodities
30:10 Parting thoughts
32:46 Confusion of the income-driven expansion
36:00 Recession
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Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 169 to discuss the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve, the impact of deficit spending, and the challenges faced by small businesses.
Links:
You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/
Follow Carol Roth on Twitter: https://twitter.com/caroljsroth
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth
1:15 Macro picture, assessment of the economy
2:30 Massive inflation in assets
3:20 Economy has been “window dressed”
5:40 Deficit-driven economy
8:30 Fiscal dominance
10:45 Stagflation
15:00 The Fed
17:00 Debt
20:00 Gold
24:00 State of small business today
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The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry joins Julia La Roche again, this time in the East Village, for an in-person, unfiltered conversation on macro and more.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh
Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome
1:36 Macro view and the Fed’s no-win situation
2:45 Revisiting financial history
4:20 The U.S. has become the economic locomotive of global growth
5:00 Policy error of fiscal conservatism
6:30 Everything is expensive
7:52 Invest 10% of net worth
9:00 Hugh’s hedge fund years
12:24 ‘To manage a lot of money you have to be serious.’ — the suits
19:07 Looking at charts and patterns while listening to Pink Floyd
24:30 China
36:19 The bubble today - the fragility of valuations
38:00 How you want to be allocated
44:16 The conceit and the arrogance of a well-formed argument
47:00 Hugh’s mistake buying Reader’s Digest in the 90s
48:48 Hugh’s go-to interview question: Tell me when you know it’s going wrong
50:44 Gold’s breakout — not an agent of chaos, the alchemy of chaos
52:24 Japanese Yen
53:49 Bitcoin
57:09 Silver
1:01:50 The Fed’s no-win situation
1:06:49 The Fed shouldn't be cutting interest rates
1:08:47 Present danger
1:11:00 The death of money?
1:15:00 Millennials and Bitcoin
1:18:43 The Bono story
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Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 167 to discuss the current state of the economy and the potential risks ahead.
In this episode, Pento highlights the rising inflation rate, the burden on the middle class, and the unsustainable levels of debt. Pento predicts a slowdown in GDP growth and the possibility of a negative quarter in the second half of the year. He believes that the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates and engage in quantitative easing to stimulate the economy.
Pento also discusses the potential impact on the housing market, equities, and the bond market. He suggests overweighting energy, base metals, and gold in a stagflationary environment.
Links:
https://pentoport.com/
https://twitter.com/michaelpento
00:00 Intro and welcome Michael Reno
00:54 Macro view, inflation, and the bankrupting of the middle class
4:08 If rates don’t come down the economy is in trouble
5:49 Fed rate cuts ahead this year?
8:00 Market is massively overvalued
9:36 Stagflation and how to invest in that environment
11:32 Home prices
13:50 Why Powell can’t wait to end QT now
15:23 Long-term yields might not come down
16:00 Explosion of rates in high-yield will crush the economy
17:27 Gold
20:00 Erosion of the middle class
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Nancy Davis, founder and portfolio manager of Quadratic Capital Management, joins The Julia La Roche for episode 166 to react to the May Fed Meeting and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged.
In this episode, Nancy shares that inflation is a persistent issue that cannot be easily resolved. However, she sees this as an opportunity for investors, as many people do not have inflation-protected bonds or exposure to the rates market in their core bond portfolios. Nancy notes that during the last period of high inflation in the 1970s, people often turned to commodities and cyclical equities because the interest rate derivative markets, rates market, and even the inflation-protected bond market did not exist at that time. She adds that investors now have more options to protect their portfolios against inflation compared to the past.
Links:
IVOL: https://ivoletf.com/
Quadratic Capital: https://quadraticllc.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/nancy__davis
0:00 Intro and welcome Nancy Davis
0:59 FOMC reaction
1:22 Fed allowing mortgages to run off
2:30 Volatility, explained
3:15 Fed interest rate policy
5:19 Be really careful about not focusing too much on consensus and looking more at what's priced in.
5:59 Rate cuts this year/ inflation exposure in investor portfolios
7:36 Opportunity in rates
10:49 IVOL (Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF)
15:48 Rates market a leading indicator for you
18:04 Macro picture
19:47 Inflation protected bond market
22:45 Inverted yield curve
24:13 Bonds a good buy?
25:18 Will the Fed cut this year? Will they cut before the election?
26: 22 Assessment of the Federal Reserve/ stagflation?
29:03 Nancy's background
32:40 Parting thoughts
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Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy.
In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation.
Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system.
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
twitter.com/biancoresearch
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro
0:59 Macro picture
1:49 Stickier inflation
4:27 Bifurcated economy
6:06 Interest rate policy outlook
7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political
9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5%
12:00 The Fed doesn’t change policy in the summer up to election day
13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5%
19:59 Demographics
24:01 Bitcoin ETF
31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million
34:10 Parting thoughts
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Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets.
He highlights the dichotomy between the consumer side, which is doing relatively well, and the commercial side, which is suffering due to low interest rates and illiquidity. Whalen predicts that interest rates will rise, leading to a preference for income-focused investments and a shift away from speculative pricing.
He also emphasizes the need for reimagining and redeveloping cities to address the challenges in the commercial real estate sector. Overall, Whalen believes that the economy is producing nominal growth but that people are struggling due to rising costs.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
The Death of Leverage; What’s the WAC of Bank America? https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/the-death-of-leverage-what-s-the-wac-of-bank-america
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen
0:55 Macro view, we’re in a weird dichotomy
2:55 Higher interest rates
4:03 Rate outlook
7:13 5 handle on 10-year treasury
10:18 The death of leverage
12:00 Confidence
16:43 Silent crisis in commercial real estate
20:25 A qualitative recession
25:15 Election year
27:23 Higher rates and impact on investor behavior
32:30 Goodbye
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Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, returns to the pod to join Julia La Roche on episode 163 to discuss his newest book, “The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security.”
The Algebra of Wealth book: https://www.amazon.com/Algebra-Wealth-Formula-Financial-Security/dp/0593714024
0:00 Intro and welcome Scott Galloway
1:04 Macro picture of the economy
3:03 Prosperity is not evenly distributed generationally
5:32 The Algebra of Wealth
7:30 Don’t follow your passion, follow your talent
9:20 Focus + Stoicism x Time x Diversification
9:56 Galloway went broke twice
12:25 Divorce
13:30 Having children
15:35 Myth of balance
17:00 Raised by a single mom
21:00 We’re turning into something that’s not very American
25:31 Investing and harvesting
27:00 Our economic policy is we’ve declared war on the young
24:47 Universities, free speech, and antisemitism on campuses
32:32 DEI
38:15 Masculinity
50:00 Parting thoughts
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Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal of the Fitz-Gerald Group, shares his macro view of the world and the five big picture lenses through which he sees the world.
He believes that investing in optimism and knowing where the world is going is better than trying to be right at specific moments in time. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that have great demand for their products and services and can change consumer behavior. Keith also discusses the role of the Fed and the importance of investing in optimism rather than trying to second-guess the unpredictable actions of the Fed.
Link: https://www.keithfitz-gerald.com/
00:00 Introduction and welcome Keith to the show
0:53 Simple is better
1:50 The five Ds
2:50 Does the Fed matter?
5:30 The AI Opportunity and Changing the World
8:22 Keith Fitz-Gerald’s S&P 4750 target in 2023
10:50 Buying right now — chaos creates opportunity
13:00 History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes
14:00 Geopolitics and markets
15:55 When in doubt, zoom out
17:13 Portfolio construction
19:03 Took out S&P 500 price target, 5500-5600 may be next stop
20:20 The Fed needs to stay on sidelines
22:40 Are markets healthy?
26:00 Outlook for the U.S.
26:50 Gold
29:20 Parting thoughts
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Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 161 to discuss the global liquidity cycle and its impact on the economy.
He explains that liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and that the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. Howell argues that the focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced, and that the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. He also highlights the importance of liquidity in the refinancing of debt and warns of the risks of a liquidity shortage. Howell suggests that investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.
Links:
Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap
Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902
Takeaways
Liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. The focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced; the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. A shortage of liquidity can lead to banking and refinancing crises. Investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
1:38 Macro view + liquidity cycle
3:07 Interest rates
6:10 What really matters is the integrity of the US Treasury market
07:47 Hedging Against Monetary Inflation
9:16 Gold
11:56 US public debt
15:15 Monetizing the debt
18:06 Gold is the pole star in the financial system
20:40 US dollar
26:29 Inverted yield curve
31:37 Conclusion and parting thoughts
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Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, discusses the macro view of the world and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies.
He criticizes the Fed for its incompetence and reckless policies that have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital.
Fleckenstein also highlights the power of the passive bid in distorting the market and the importance of understanding its effects. He believes that the stock market has become a lagging indicator and that the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation.
Elsewhere, Fleckenstein discusses the bond market, gold, and silver. He also expresses concerns about the US national debt and the lack of fiscal responsibility.
Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap
Website:https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/
Takeaways
The Federal Reserve's incompetence and reckless policies have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital. The passive bid, driven by defined contribution plans and 401k plans, has distorted the market and changed what works and what doesn't. The stock market has become a lagging indicator, and the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation. The US national debt is a significant concern, and there is a lack of fiscal responsibility. Gold and silver are seen as insurance policies against inflation and financial disruptions.Chapters
0:00 Introduction and welcome Bill Fleckenstein
0:55 Macro view and what the Fed does really matters
4:30 The distorting effects of the passive bid
6:30 The stock market is a lagging indicator
10:45 Equity markets in a bubble or not?
13:30 End game — long end of the bond market rates rise
18:26 Inflation and the inflation psychology
23:53 The Fed’s inflation fight, Fed cutting rates would be an obvious mistake
26:30 The economy and millennials
29:49 Gold price, gold market has figured out Fed is trapped
34:44 Silver
37:04 Outlook on the U.S. and conclusion
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