Episódios

  • Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 208 to discuss the economy, markets, and the 2024 presidential election.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.

    *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links:

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

    00:56 Big picture, overview of interest rates and Fed policy

    02:57 Analysis of Treasury bond market dynamics

    04:11 Long-term outlook for bonds and market structure

    06:01 Discussion of fiscal policy and government spending

    09:00 Critique of government spending efficiency

    11:24 Commentary on government sector competency

    13:21 Election outlook and demographic shifts

    16:56 Analysis of Bank of America and banking sector

    19:16 Discussion of stock selection in current market

    22:42 Investment strategy in uncertain times

    24:59 Analysis of hydrogen and energy sector outlook

    26:02 Key market risk: potential for higher long-term rates

    28:05 Closing thoughts and upcoming conference call

  • Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode on episode 207 to discuss the state of the economy.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Timestamps:

    # Timestamps for Dr. Gary Shilling Interview

    00:00 Welcome Dr. Shilling

    00:55 Macro view, analysis of labor markets and recent employment data

    02:39 Fed's priorities and concerns about labor market softening

    03:26 Discussion of upcoming Fed meeting and rate cut expectations

    04:59 Explanation of soft landings vs recessions

    07:26 Analysis of current economic imbalances

    09:14 Assessment of recession probability (40-50%)

    12:52 Discussion of economic forecasting as art vs science

    16:17 Analysis of bond market outlook

    19:36 Discussion of inflation expectations and bond yields

    22:42 Portfolio positioning and investment opportunities

    24:06 Analysis of India vs China investment outlook

    27:11 Assessment of upcoming US election implications

    28:49 Discussion of debt and deficit issues

    31:15 Analysis of US dollar's reserve currency status

    32:36 Closing remarks and contact information

    Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).

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  • Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 206 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links:

    https://www.grant-williams.com/

    https://twitter.com/ttmygh

    Timestamps:

    01:07 Overview of current market confusion and multiple risks

    03:33 Discussion of monetary policy and debt challenges

    05:22 Analysis of BRICS developments and global shifts

    07:49 Framework for assessing negative outcomes

    09:35 Discussion of millennial investors and passive investing

    14:26 Analysis of inflation and Federal Reserve credibility

    17:19 Impact of inflation on society and purchasing power

    22:11 Discussion of affordability and political implications

    25:31 Analysis of public sentiment and policy constraints

    31:16 Geopolitical considerations and policy options

    35:01 Portfolio construction and preservation strategies

    42:24 Bond market reactions and loss of Fed credibility

    45:06 Breakdown of trust in financial system

    48:52 Fourth Turning framework and implications

    50:45 Potential factors that could alter thesis

    52:43 Long-term perspective on gold investment

    54:47 Analysis of silver as monetary metal

    57:17 Closing thoughts on navigating current environment

  • Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 205 to discuss the macro view, why the market is signaling the Fed's rate cut was a mistake, the dynamics of the labor market, and the presidential election.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links:

    BiancoResearch.com

    BiancoAdvisors.com

    x.com/biancoresearch

    00:00 Intro and welcome Jim

    01:00 Analysis of Fed's 50 basis point rate cut and market reaction

    04:27 Discussion of labor market and population growth impact

    06:53 Analysis of ADP data and small business employment

    09:11 Impact of immigration on economic statistics

    11:20 Fed's political vs partisan nature in rate decisions

    14:13 Explanation of "no landing" economic scenario

    17:06 Outlook for bonds and inflation impact

    19:59 Stock market return expectations

    22:25 Bond market competition with stocks

    23:33 Demographics and bear market discussion

    26:28 Analysis of election betting markets and probabilities

    31:41 Inflation outlook regardless of election outcome

    33:04 Discussion of inflation rates vs cumulative price increases

    37:11 Implications of a 3% inflation world

    40:48 Closing remarks and information about Bianco Research

  • Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 204 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics and geopolitics.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).

    Links:

    Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

    Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo

    00:59 Overview of macro picture, analysis of US labor market and economic data

    03:22 Discussion on Chinese economy and stimulus measures

    05:46 Impact of US-China rivalry on European economy, especially Germany

    08:07 Critique of Federal Reserve's recent rate cut decision

    10:28 Explanation of illegal immigration's impact on economic data

    13:29 Analysis of upcoming US election and potential market impacts

    16:57 Discussion on potential Israeli attack on Iran before US election

    21:13 Analysis of Iran's military capabilities and potential conflict

    25:36 Reasons for potential Israeli attack before US election

    31:03 Investment strategies for different election scenarios

    36:05 Analysis of polling data and election predictions

    51:30 Demographic analysis of voter support for candidates

    54:49 Discussion on risks to Trump's candidacy

    57:27 Potential implications of a Trump victory

    59:53 Speculations on potential Trump administration policies and team

  • In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets.

    Links:

    https://rosenbergresearch.com/

    https://x.com/EconguyRosie

    Timestamps:

    00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation

    01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence

    02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators

    05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers

    08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election

    10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market

    13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy

    15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown

    17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy

    19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election

    21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons

    25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs

    27:43 Lags in economic policy effects

    31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues

    35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth

    39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations

    42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation

    46:40 Concerns about passive index investing

    50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy

    54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation

    57:22 Approach to investing in bonds

    01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds

    01:02:27 Parting thoughts

  • Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 202 for a conversation on the state of the economy, the money supply, inflation, and the upcoming election.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links:

    Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke

    Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0

    Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System:

    https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260

    https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke

    02:06 Discussion on China's economy and inflation

    04:29 U.S. economy and money supply contraction

    07:29 European economic situation

    10:41 Focus on money supply vs interest rates

    15:59 Discussion on job report revisions and data reliability

    21:17 Inflation forecast and bond yields

    25:57 Fed's record on predicting economic trends

    27:29 Book recommendations on economic theory

    31:57 Analysis of upcoming election (polls vs prediction markets)

    38:17 Economic policies of candidates

    42:40 Industrial policy and protectionism

    45:15 Government spending as percentage of GDP

    48:40 Parting thoughts and new book announcements

    50:22 Closing remarks

  • Eric Basmajian, founder and CEO of EPB Research, joins Julia on episode 201 to discuss the economy, housing market dynamics, outlook on unemployment trends, and the long-term economic factors, including the effects of increasing government size on private sector growth.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links:

    Website: https://www.epbresearch.com/

    Twitter/X: https://x.com/EPBResearch

    Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction and welcome Eric Basmajian

    01:03 Macro view + Eric's four economies framework

    03:17 Explanation of leading, cyclical, aggregate, and lagging economies

    07:29 Current state of the economy and growth rates

    09:32 How to discern signal from noise in economic data

    13:15 Discussion on economic revisions and their significance

    16:23 Addressing common misconceptions about the economy

    20:55 Inflation trends and relationship to the business cycle

    23:03 Analysis of Fed's September rate cut decision

    25:22 Impact of backlogs on economic activity post-COVID

    30:48 Overview of the residential housing cycle

    33:55 Current housing market supply and demand dynamics

    37:08 Forecast for unemployment rate trends

    43:53 Long-term economic outlook factors (debt, demographics, government size)

    48:16 Declining growth rates in real private sector income

    50:51 Impact of increasing government size on economic growth

    54:15 Optimal government size for economic growth

    57:37 Connection between rising home prices and demographic changes

  • Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns for episode 200 to discuss the economy, the Fed, upcoming bank earnings, the 2024 election, and more.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links:

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

    00:00 Introduction and welcome Chris Whalen

    01:10 Macro view and Federal Reserve actions

    02:56 Fed's rate cut mistake and implications

    05:14 Fed's credibility and narrative challenges

    07:12 Global economic outlook and banking sector issues

    09:13 Inflation and its impact on different economic segments

    12:09 Analysis of proposed first-time homebuyer policy

    15:01 Discussion on oil markets and OPEC

    16:48 US 10-year yields and mortgage rates

    19:46 Outlook for upcoming bank earnings

    22:19 Basel Accord and banking regulation issues

    26:25 Market risks and bank solvency concerns

    28:16 Implications of rising 10-year Treasury yields

    30:36 2024 US election outlook and key issues

    33:00 Closing thoughts and upcoming book releases

  • Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm managing over $5 billion, joins Julia La Roche on episode 199. Josh is a frequent commentator on CNBC's "Halftime Report," and the author of four books, including his newest, "You Weren't Supposed To See That: Secrets Every Investor Should Know."

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Book: https://www.amazon.com/You-Werent-Supposed-See-That/dp/180409059X

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction and welcome Josh Brown

    02:05 The current state of the economy and markets

    06:18 Abundance mindset vs scarcity mindset in investing

    10:42 Josh's journey from blogging to meeting Barry Ritholtz

    15:08 Overcoming imposter syndrome and taking risks

    18:25 Josh's experience in boiler rooms and being honest about his past 21:30 Discussing Josh's personal story and education

    25:58 "You Weren't Supposed to See That"

    29:37 Current market trends and investment philosophy

    34:20 The role of financial advisors during market volatility

    38:45 Building a media empire in finance

    43:12 The importance of communication in wealth management

    47:30 Reflecting on career growth and luck in the industry

    50:15 The asymmetry of putting yourself out there and final thoughts

  • Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 198 to share his macro outlook and why he thinks we're headed for an Economic Singularity with the rise of AI.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmiGMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/Real Vision: https://www.realvision.com/

    00:00 Welcome Raoul Pal and Real Vision's 10-year anniversary

    01:39 The Everything Code and macro cycles explained

    05:38 Explaining liquidity and its sources

    07:29 Central banks, liquidity, and currency debasement

    11:42 Risk-taking and asset performance in the current environment

    15:02 The exciting macro setup and market opportunities ahead

    17:43 Addressing misconceptions about recessions and market bubbles

    22:23 Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation outlook

    25:58 Raoul's evolution to a more optimistic market view

    34:45 The concept of economic singularity explained

    38:20 AI's impact on productivity and economic growth

    42:20 Preparing for the economic singularity in the next 6 years

    43:58 Bitcoin as a high-performing asset

    45:07 Real Vision's past and future outlook

    48:58 Closing thoughts on "unf***ing your future"

  • Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 197.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.

    *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links:

    Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/

    00:12 Welcome and introduction

    01:20 Macro view and Fed policy

    7:08 Understanding inflation and central bank policies

    11:21 The bond market's role in economic stability

    18:01 Bubbles and market psychology

    21:45 Current economic health and stagflation outlook

    26:46 The Fed's credibility crisis

    31:53 Implications of the upcoming election

    34:13 Gold and silver investment perspectives

    35:55 Japanese yen carry trade unwind

    37:14 US dollar outlook

    39:41 Thesis development in investing

    42:00 The U.S. debt situation and future outlook

    44:03 Parting thoughts on developing investment theses

    46:07 Book recommendations and where to find Bill's work

  • Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, returns for episode 196, in which he discusses the current macro landscape, focusing on Fed policy, global markets, and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He explores gold's role as a signal of economic stress, the dynamics of carry trades, and potential market volatility ahead.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links:

    Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund

    YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod

    Macro Alchemist: https://macroalchemist.com/

    0:00 Welcome Brent Johnson

    1:05 Current macro picture and Fed policy

    4:40 Challenges of engineering a soft landing

    8:54 What is gold signaling?

    14:22 Global demand for gold

    17:29 Dollar Milkshake Theory explained

    24:11 Geopolitical implications of the dollar system

    30:22 Market outlook

    37:42 Are markets in a bubble?

    41:51 Gold price outlook

    45:35 2024 election impact on markets

    49:24 Yen carry trade and broader carry trade risks

    56:17 The global system as one big carry trade

    59:03 Closing thoughts and where to find Brent's work

  • Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 195 to discuss the current state of the economy.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.

    *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Links:

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

    Chapters

    00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

    01:04 Big picture view — is there a recession or not?

    02:24 Labor market

    03:44 Home prices

    07:53 Recession

    10:40 Rate policy

    12:54 Fed is afraid to really fight inflation

    14:00 Liquidity explained

    17:00 Americans are looking to be bailed out

    21:30 Intervention

    23:05 Fed

    24:50 Deficit

    28:40 Election

    32:36 Parting thoughts

  • Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 194. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics. Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Timestamps:

    0:00 Intro and welcome back Dr. Art Laffer

    1:06 Big picture macro view, a long period of economic senescence

    5:13 Transfer theorem and the decline in growth rates

    7:58 Upcoming election from an economics lens

    11:30 Operation Warp Speed and Right To Try

    15:25 A second-term Trump could unleash a Renaissance in America's economy

    19:00 Five pillars of prosperity

    24:17 Tariffs

    28:30 Trade and geopolitics

    33:30 Trade is not a political weapon

    42:50 Government spending

    50:00 RFK Jr. endorsing Trump is one of the most important events

    53:55 A Harris presidency

    57:20 Parting thoughts

  • ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, and a prominent figure in the field of stock market analysis and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 193 to share his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts.

    Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969. Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.

    **DISCLOSURE**Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia

    Timestamps:

    0:00 Welcome back Tom

    1:00 Where we are today in the markets

    2:00 McClellan Oscillator showing the bulls are no longer in control

    6:30 Presidential Cycle Pattern

    10:50 Liquidity

    12:40 Gold

    20:29 Japanese Yen

    22:00 Mexican Peso

    23:25 Gold

    25:25 Dollar

    31:40 McClellan Oscillator explained, signaling an overbought and bearish condition in the markets

    33:16 Are recession signals flashing in the market?

    36:00 Demographics

    38:27 Market timing

    40:41 Federal Reserve is 13 months overdue for cutting

    43:00 Presidential Cycle

    46:29 Parting thoughts

    Links:

    https://www.mcoscillator.com/

    https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc

  • Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt, EVP and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company, joins Julia La Roche on episode 192 for a wide-ranging discussion on the deteriorating economy.

    In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on the nonseasonal adjusted data, the overshoot was actually 915,000. Dr. Hunt explains that the non-farm job miss means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down. Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward, and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5%.

    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com ✨

    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.

    *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

    ✨ Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

    Timestamps:

    0:00 Welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt

    1:16 Macro picture

    3:37 Downward revision in non-farm payrolls is significant

    5:45 The 818,000 error is actually 915,000, according to Dr. Hunt's model

    9:00 The economy is deteriorating

    15:24 Net national saving shows we have a problem

    21:40 The seriousness of negative net national savings

    25:00 Decline in the standard of living

    34:50 Possible solutions, shared sacrifice

    40:00 Fiscal dominance is a very real possibility

    45:40 Fed is behind the curve

    47:37 Where are we in the economic lifecycle

    49:44 The global economy

  • Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 191 to discuss the economy and markets.

    With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.

    He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

    https://oxbowadvisors.com/

    00:00 Introduction and welcome Ted Oakley

    1:31 Macro picture, a slow disintegration

    3:06 Federal Reserve

    5:30 State of the Middle Class

    7:00 A September rate cut?

    08:32 Conversations with clients about the economy

    11:31 The average person's exposure to stocks is too high, building balanced portfolios

    15:30 Similarities/differences between 2000 and today

    17:40 The evolution of the market and rise of passive investing

    19:30 Cash position

    21:20 10-Year Treasury

    23:48 Opportunities — cutting back on tech stocks, investing in pharmaceuticals

    25:20 Gold

    27:20 When to sell your winners

    31:25 Staying rich with a balanced portfolio

    33:50 Second, third generation wealth

    39:40 Best and worst years personally

  • Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors LP, joins Julia La Roche episode 190 to discuss the macro picture and why the economy is likely headed toward recession. He also thinks this overvalued stock market could see a 15-20% correction.

    Links:

    website: https://www.ftportfolios.com/

    blog: https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/Economics/index.aspx

    X: https://x.com/wesbury

    0:00 Welcome Brian Wesbury

    1:09 Macro view

    3:30 Why we're going to have a recession

    4:25 Health of the economy

    8:15 Savings rate

    10:45 Bifurcated economy

    12:30 Housing

    15:45 Federal Reserve have separated the money supply from interest rates

    19:60 Burns or Volcker

    21:20 Cut because of politics

    25:20 Debt situation

    30:40 Bitcoin

    33:44 State-run capitalism

    37:00 Markets

    40:00 Energy

    42:50 Presidential election

    47:20 Parting thoughts

  • Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to the show for episode 189, featuring a discussion on the macro environment, warning signs, and investment opportunities.

    Link to Rick's private placements bootcamp: https://events.ringcentral.com/events/rick-rule-s-virtual-private-placement-bootcamp?utm_source=aff&utm_campaign=14

    00:00 Introduction and welcome back Rick Rule

    01:30 Macro picture, wake-up call and lessons from the Japanese carry trade unwind

    3:53 Be prepared for these contingencies

    05:50 Two risks, one opportunity

    09:50 Entitlements

    12:15 Opportunity in gold

    15:20 Taxes and inflation

    19:39 The Federal Reserve and interest rates

    23:19 Manipulation of interest rates

    30:10 Bond market

    35:05 Upcoming election

    40:58 Parting thoughts