Episódios
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Ben Hunt, the author of Epsilon Theory (https://www.epsilontheory.com/) and co-founder of Second Foundation Partners, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss narratives and how they shape everything from financial markets to politics.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
00:00 Introduction to Ben Hunt
01:00 Narrative of narrative
03:08 Narratives behind markets
07:00 Wall Street is a story construction machine
09:08 Bitcoin "number go up" story, narrative evolution
20:00 Post-election market narratives
22:42 Shift from "structural" to "WTF" animal spirits
25:00 Managing market exits and exposure
30:17 How quickly narratives change
36:48 Discussion of "fiat news" concept
44:18 Evolution of semantic layer in markets
47:24 Closing thoughts on understanding storytelling systems
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Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 212 to discuss the global liquidity cycle, markets, and why there's uncertainty in the year ahead.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
Links:
Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap
Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902
Timestamps:
00:08 Introduction to Michael Howell
01:00 Global liquidity and market cycles overview
03:10 Global liquidity cycle visualization and trends
06:14 Discussion of debt refinancing vs. new capital financing
09:02 The approaching debt maturity wall and market challenges
12:46 Warning signs and historical financial crises
16:04 Bond market concerns and inflation outlook
21:37 Yield curve analysis and market distortions
23:24 Investment strategy recommendations
26:18 Gold and cryptocurrency as monetary inflation hedges
28:36 Investment regime cycles explanation
33:02 2025 outlook and mounting challenges
34:53 China's economic situation and policy constraints
39:10 Stock market euphoria vs. bond market signals
41:20 Final thoughts and portfolio allocation advice
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Veteran journalist and bestselling author Charlie Gasparino, Fox Business Senior Correspondent and New York Post columnist, joins Julia La Roche in-studio to discuss his newest book, "Go Woke, Go Broke."
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Go-Woke-Broke-Radicalization-Corporate/dp/1546007415Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Charlie Gasparino00:56 2024 election post-mortem05:02 'Woke doesn't sell' 11:16 Writing 'Go Woke, Go Broke' 14:00 Progressivism in the workplace 28:00 Media 37:00 Nail in the coffin of woke 29:50 Bud Light 43:55 A repudiation of woke
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Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 210 to discuss the 2024 election results, his outlook for the economy and why he sees a recession in the near term followed by a great recovery, and his warning on artificial intelligence.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
More about Rickards:
Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.
Links:
https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631
http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards
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Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 209 to discuss the FOMC decision, the state of the economy, and the 2024 election results.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
More about Danielle:
A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Links:
QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
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Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 208 to discuss the economy, markets, and the 2024 presidential election.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.
*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen
00:56 Big picture, overview of interest rates and Fed policy
02:57 Analysis of Treasury bond market dynamics
04:11 Long-term outlook for bonds and market structure
06:01 Discussion of fiscal policy and government spending
09:00 Critique of government spending efficiency
11:24 Commentary on government sector competency
13:21 Election outlook and demographic shifts
16:56 Analysis of Bank of America and banking sector
19:16 Discussion of stock selection in current market
22:42 Investment strategy in uncertain times
24:59 Analysis of hydrogen and energy sector outlook
26:02 Key market risk: potential for higher long-term rates
28:05 Closing thoughts and upcoming conference call
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Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode on episode 207 to discuss the state of the economy.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Timestamps:
# Timestamps for Dr. Gary Shilling Interview
00:00 Welcome Dr. Shilling
00:55 Macro view, analysis of labor markets and recent employment data
02:39 Fed's priorities and concerns about labor market softening
03:26 Discussion of upcoming Fed meeting and rate cut expectations
04:59 Explanation of soft landings vs recessions
07:26 Analysis of current economic imbalances
09:14 Assessment of recession probability (40-50%)
12:52 Discussion of economic forecasting as art vs science
16:17 Analysis of bond market outlook
19:36 Discussion of inflation expectations and bond yields
22:42 Portfolio positioning and investment opportunities
24:06 Analysis of India vs China investment outlook
27:11 Assessment of upcoming US election implications
28:49 Discussion of debt and deficit issues
31:15 Analysis of US dollar's reserve currency status
32:36 Closing remarks and contact information
Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).
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Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 206 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
https://www.grant-williams.com/
https://twitter.com/ttmygh
Timestamps:
01:07 Overview of current market confusion and multiple risks
03:33 Discussion of monetary policy and debt challenges
05:22 Analysis of BRICS developments and global shifts
07:49 Framework for assessing negative outcomes
09:35 Discussion of millennial investors and passive investing
14:26 Analysis of inflation and Federal Reserve credibility
17:19 Impact of inflation on society and purchasing power
22:11 Discussion of affordability and political implications
25:31 Analysis of public sentiment and policy constraints
31:16 Geopolitical considerations and policy options
35:01 Portfolio construction and preservation strategies
42:24 Bond market reactions and loss of Fed credibility
45:06 Breakdown of trust in financial system
48:52 Fourth Turning framework and implications
50:45 Potential factors that could alter thesis
52:43 Long-term perspective on gold investment
54:47 Analysis of silver as monetary metal
57:17 Closing thoughts on navigating current environment
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Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 205 to discuss the macro view, why the market is signaling the Fed's rate cut was a mistake, the dynamics of the labor market, and the presidential election.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
x.com/biancoresearch
00:00 Intro and welcome Jim
01:00 Analysis of Fed's 50 basis point rate cut and market reaction
04:27 Discussion of labor market and population growth impact
06:53 Analysis of ADP data and small business employment
09:11 Impact of immigration on economic statistics
11:20 Fed's political vs partisan nature in rate decisions
14:13 Explanation of "no landing" economic scenario
17:06 Outlook for bonds and inflation impact
19:59 Stock market return expectations
22:25 Bond market competition with stocks
23:33 Demographics and bear market discussion
26:28 Analysis of election betting markets and probabilities
31:41 Inflation outlook regardless of election outcome
33:04 Discussion of inflation rates vs cumulative price increases
37:11 Implications of a 3% inflation world
40:48 Closing remarks and information about Bianco Research
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Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 204 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics and geopolitics.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).
Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo
00:59 Overview of macro picture, analysis of US labor market and economic data
03:22 Discussion on Chinese economy and stimulus measures
05:46 Impact of US-China rivalry on European economy, especially Germany
08:07 Critique of Federal Reserve's recent rate cut decision
10:28 Explanation of illegal immigration's impact on economic data
13:29 Analysis of upcoming US election and potential market impacts
16:57 Discussion on potential Israeli attack on Iran before US election
21:13 Analysis of Iran's military capabilities and potential conflict
25:36 Reasons for potential Israeli attack before US election
31:03 Investment strategies for different election scenarios
36:05 Analysis of polling data and election predictions
51:30 Demographic analysis of voter support for candidates
54:49 Discussion on risks to Trump's candidacy
57:27 Potential implications of a Trump victory
59:53 Speculations on potential Trump administration policies and team
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In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets.
Links:
https://rosenbergresearch.com/
https://x.com/EconguyRosie
Timestamps:
00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation
01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence
02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators
05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers
08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election
10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market
13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy
15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown
17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy
19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election
21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons
25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs
27:43 Lags in economic policy effects
31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues
35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth
39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations
42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation
46:40 Concerns about passive index investing
50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy
54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation
57:22 Approach to investing in bonds
01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds
01:02:27 Parting thoughts
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Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 202 for a conversation on the state of the economy, the money supply, inflation, and the upcoming election.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke
Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0
Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System:
https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke
02:06 Discussion on China's economy and inflation
04:29 U.S. economy and money supply contraction
07:29 European economic situation
10:41 Focus on money supply vs interest rates
15:59 Discussion on job report revisions and data reliability
21:17 Inflation forecast and bond yields
25:57 Fed's record on predicting economic trends
27:29 Book recommendations on economic theory
31:57 Analysis of upcoming election (polls vs prediction markets)
38:17 Economic policies of candidates
42:40 Industrial policy and protectionism
45:15 Government spending as percentage of GDP
48:40 Parting thoughts and new book announcements
50:22 Closing remarks
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Eric Basmajian, founder and CEO of EPB Research, joins Julia on episode 201 to discuss the economy, housing market dynamics, outlook on unemployment trends, and the long-term economic factors, including the effects of increasing government size on private sector growth.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Website: https://www.epbresearch.com/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/EPBResearch
Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Eric Basmajian
01:03 Macro view + Eric's four economies framework
03:17 Explanation of leading, cyclical, aggregate, and lagging economies
07:29 Current state of the economy and growth rates
09:32 How to discern signal from noise in economic data
13:15 Discussion on economic revisions and their significance
16:23 Addressing common misconceptions about the economy
20:55 Inflation trends and relationship to the business cycle
23:03 Analysis of Fed's September rate cut decision
25:22 Impact of backlogs on economic activity post-COVID
30:48 Overview of the residential housing cycle
33:55 Current housing market supply and demand dynamics
37:08 Forecast for unemployment rate trends
43:53 Long-term economic outlook factors (debt, demographics, government size)
48:16 Declining growth rates in real private sector income
50:51 Impact of increasing government size on economic growth
54:15 Optimal government size for economic growth
57:37 Connection between rising home prices and demographic changes
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Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns for episode 200 to discuss the economy, the Fed, upcoming bank earnings, the 2024 election, and more.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
00:00 Introduction and welcome Chris Whalen
01:10 Macro view and Federal Reserve actions
02:56 Fed's rate cut mistake and implications
05:14 Fed's credibility and narrative challenges
07:12 Global economic outlook and banking sector issues
09:13 Inflation and its impact on different economic segments
12:09 Analysis of proposed first-time homebuyer policy
15:01 Discussion on oil markets and OPEC
16:48 US 10-year yields and mortgage rates
19:46 Outlook for upcoming bank earnings
22:19 Basel Accord and banking regulation issues
26:25 Market risks and bank solvency concerns
28:16 Implications of rising 10-year Treasury yields
30:36 2024 US election outlook and key issues
33:00 Closing thoughts and upcoming book releases
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Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm managing over $5 billion, joins Julia La Roche on episode 199. Josh is a frequent commentator on CNBC's "Halftime Report," and the author of four books, including his newest, "You Weren't Supposed To See That: Secrets Every Investor Should Know."
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Book: https://www.amazon.com/You-Werent-Supposed-See-That/dp/180409059X
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Josh Brown
02:05 The current state of the economy and markets
06:18 Abundance mindset vs scarcity mindset in investing
10:42 Josh's journey from blogging to meeting Barry Ritholtz
15:08 Overcoming imposter syndrome and taking risks
18:25 Josh's experience in boiler rooms and being honest about his past 21:30 Discussing Josh's personal story and education
25:58 "You Weren't Supposed to See That"
29:37 Current market trends and investment philosophy
34:20 The role of financial advisors during market volatility
38:45 Building a media empire in finance
43:12 The importance of communication in wealth management
47:30 Reflecting on career growth and luck in the industry
50:15 The asymmetry of putting yourself out there and final thoughts
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Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 198 to share his macro outlook and why he thinks we're headed for an Economic Singularity with the rise of AI.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmiGMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/Real Vision: https://www.realvision.com/
00:00 Welcome Raoul Pal and Real Vision's 10-year anniversary
01:39 The Everything Code and macro cycles explained
05:38 Explaining liquidity and its sources
07:29 Central banks, liquidity, and currency debasement
11:42 Risk-taking and asset performance in the current environment
15:02 The exciting macro setup and market opportunities ahead
17:43 Addressing misconceptions about recessions and market bubbles
22:23 Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation outlook
25:58 Raoul's evolution to a more optimistic market view
34:45 The concept of economic singularity explained
38:20 AI's impact on productivity and economic growth
42:20 Preparing for the economic singularity in the next 6 years
43:58 Bitcoin as a high-performing asset
45:07 Real Vision's past and future outlook
48:58 Closing thoughts on "unf***ing your future"
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Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 197.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.
*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/
00:12 Welcome and introduction
01:20 Macro view and Fed policy
7:08 Understanding inflation and central bank policies
11:21 The bond market's role in economic stability
18:01 Bubbles and market psychology
21:45 Current economic health and stagflation outlook
26:46 The Fed's credibility crisis
31:53 Implications of the upcoming election
34:13 Gold and silver investment perspectives
35:55 Japanese yen carry trade unwind
37:14 US dollar outlook
39:41 Thesis development in investing
42:00 The U.S. debt situation and future outlook
44:03 Parting thoughts on developing investment theses
46:07 Book recommendations and where to find Bill's work
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Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, returns for episode 196, in which he discusses the current macro landscape, focusing on Fed policy, global markets, and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He explores gold's role as a signal of economic stress, the dynamics of carry trades, and potential market volatility ahead.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod
Macro Alchemist: https://macroalchemist.com/
0:00 Welcome Brent Johnson
1:05 Current macro picture and Fed policy
4:40 Challenges of engineering a soft landing
8:54 What is gold signaling?
14:22 Global demand for gold
17:29 Dollar Milkshake Theory explained
24:11 Geopolitical implications of the dollar system
30:22 Market outlook
37:42 Are markets in a bubble?
41:51 Gold price outlook
45:35 2024 election impact on markets
49:24 Yen carry trade and broader carry trade risks
56:17 The global system as one big carry trade
59:03 Closing thoughts and where to find Brent's work
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Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 195 to discuss the current state of the economy.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.
*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Chapters
00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen
01:04 Big picture view — is there a recession or not?
02:24 Labor market
03:44 Home prices
07:53 Recession
10:40 Rate policy
12:54 Fed is afraid to really fight inflation
14:00 Liquidity explained
17:00 Americans are looking to be bailed out
21:30 Intervention
23:05 Fed
24:50 Deficit
28:40 Election
32:36 Parting thoughts
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Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 194. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics. Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Dr. Art Laffer
1:06 Big picture macro view, a long period of economic senescence
5:13 Transfer theorem and the decline in growth rates
7:58 Upcoming election from an economics lens
11:30 Operation Warp Speed and Right To Try
15:25 A second-term Trump could unleash a Renaissance in America's economy
19:00 Five pillars of prosperity
24:17 Tariffs
28:30 Trade and geopolitics
33:30 Trade is not a political weapon
42:50 Government spending
50:00 RFK Jr. endorsing Trump is one of the most important events
53:55 A Harris presidency
57:20 Parting thoughts
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