Episódios
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Ted Knutson shares his insights for EVERY EPL Matchday 10 game and discusses why you MUST wait for the lineups before betting certain games.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:05 - Liverpool vs. Brighton
01:48 - Why you must check the lineup before betting this match
02:22 - Ipswich vs. Leicester City
02:41 - Forest vs. West Ham
03:48 - Bournemouth vs. Man City
04:44 - Newcastle vs. Arsenal
06:13 - Southampton vs. Everton
06:36 - Wolves vs. Crystal Palace
07:03 - Tottenham vs. Aston Villa
09:29 - Manchester United vs. Chelsea
11:31 - Fulham vs. Brentford
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On this episode, Ted and Ravi answer frequently asked questions about getting started in sports analytics using their extensive knowledge and experience in the industry. They get into how to look for a job, the skills you need, and what to expect once you land a job. If you have more questions you want answered, leave them in the comments down below!
Details for Ravi's conference in Houston:
https://americansoccerinsights.com/
Data Contest/Call for Proposals:
https://americansoccerinsights.com/call-for-proposals
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:01 - How do I get started?
00:04:46 - What skills do I need?
00:21:25 - Where to look for football jobs?
00:23:17 - Apart from football clubs, where are some other places I can find data jobs in football?
00:26:25 - I want to go into football, but I don't have the data skills - where can I learn them fast?
00:35:24 - How can I set myself apart from the crowd?
00:46:00 - The pay seems very low - what can I do about it?
00:51:10 - What's it look to work for these teams?
01:04:52 - What are your biggest takeaways from working in sports?
#dataanalytics #analytics #data #football #soccer #sports #sportsanalytics #premierleague #mls #stats
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Manchester United firing manager Erik ten Hag. They run down why he had to be fired, Ruud van Nistelrooy as interim manager, and potential names for the job. Then, Ravi joins Patrick to discuss Barcelona's 4-0 victory over Real Madrid over the weekend. They talk about Barcelona's high line causing problems for Madrid, Madrid lacking a holding striker, and if Barcelona can maintain this form for the rest of the season. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:47 - United sack Erik ten Hag
00:01:31 - Ruud van Nistelrooy interim manager
00:01:45 - Manchester United’s recent form
00:04:14 - Trends for United
00:04:39 - Could they be better with a better coach?
00:05:39 - What a good and bad manager change process looks like
00:07:24 - The U Curve of coaches
00:10:18 - Could ten Hag’s hurt United?
00:10:56 - Dan Ashworth’s limited early influence
00:11:53 - Who should United hire?
00:12:39 - Pochettino and Tuchel already have jobs
00:13:28 - Could van Nistelrooy stay on?
00:14:29 - Gareth Southgate
00:15:27 - Ruben Amorim
00:15:54 - How do budgets play into the new hire decision?
00:17:51 - Xavi as next United manager?
00:20:05 - Luis Enrique
00:21:12 - Graham Potter
00:23:09 - Eddie Howe
00:24:24 - Mourinho was the most pragmatic of recent United coaches
00:25:05 - Michael Carrick
00:28:44 - Adi Hutter
00:30:57 - Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola?
00:31:47 - Thomas Frank
00:34:08 - The ability of a manager to get player buy-in
00:35:41 - Roger Schmidt and his pressing style
00:37:44 - Julian Nagelsmann
00:39:44 - Should United settle for the least costly option?
00:40:53 - The stress of managing/working for a team
00:41:38 - Ravi joins to talk El Clasico
00:42:46 - The game was closer than the score and Barca’s impressive workload
00:44:33 - Madrid’s gameplan was to be direct
00:45:19 - Was Fermin Lopez the correct choice?
00:46:06 - The technical ability on display
00:46:46 - Substitutions settled the game for Barca
00:47:55 - Casado’s line-breaking pass for Goal #1
00:48:52 - The high line was very impressive
00:50:11 - Lucas Vazquez struggled
00:53:14 - Who should be blamed for Madrid?
00:54:46 - Madrid struggle with a pivot and where was Endrick?
00:56:52 - Bellingham’s lack of forward threat
00:58:52 - Can Barcelona sustain this performance?
01:02:06 - Mbappe moving to the right side?
#manchesterunited #realmadrid #barcelona #manutd #eriktenhag #elclassico #football #soccer #podcast
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On this episode, Ted shares his picks for EPL matchday 9. He starts by explaining why he flat bets and when to use accumulators. He gives insights on the matches he's betting on, including Arsenal vs. Liverpool, and explains why he's staying away from certain matchups (both City and United). Enjoy!
More information on fractional Kelly betting: https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/betting-strategy/revisiting-the-kelly-criterion-part-2-fractional-kelly/gbd27z9nljvgflgg
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:18 - Why do you bet flat amounts?
03:44 - Why don't you bet accumulators?
06:23 - Leicester City vs. Forest
07:16 - Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
08:03 - Brentford vs. Ipswich
09:02 - Manchester City vs. Southampton
09:51 - Brighton vs. Wolves
11:33 - Everton vs. Fulham
13:10 - Chelsea vs. Newcastle
14:15 - Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham
15:33 - West Ham vs. Manchester United
17:02 - Arsenal vs. Liverpool
#premierleague #epl #betting #liverpool #arsenal #chelsea #tottenham #soccer #football #manchesterunited
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Real Madrid's 5-2 win over Dortmund and the injuries to Thibaut Courtois and Rodrygo. Next, they preview the Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Champions League match today and how the game might be insightful for El Clasico on Saturday. They then dive into the best lineups for both Real Madrid and Barcelona, how much injured (Dani Olmo and Gavi) and older (Luka Modric) might play, and give their predictions for the final score. They end the conversation with Xabi Alonso's rumoured exit from Bayer Leverkusen at the end of the season, potential landing spots, and if he will actually leave. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:02 - Real Madrid vs. Dortmund
04:32 - Real Madrid’s defense was shocking
05:32 - Different Midfield lineups Madrid has used
06:50 - Ravi’s pre-game prediction
07:48 - Bellingham last season vs. this season
09:43 - Modric, Valverde, and Madrid’s Galactico mindset
11:02 - How do they fix their midfield issues?
11:41 - How much will Modric play?
14:08 - Will Rodrygo be the odd man out?
15:12 - Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Preview
16:20 - A good test for Bayern
17:39 - Barcelona players returning from injury
18:50 - How much can Gavi give them?
21:02 - What front 3 will Barcelona play?
22:35 - Giving minutes to returning players against Bayern
23:33 - What lineup will Madrid use against Barcelona?
24:10 - Courtois injury for Madrid
25:19 - An offensive vs. defensive lineup
26:37 - Stylistic matchups
28:21 - Should Barcelona play more conservatively?
30:11 - Both teams are weak at fullback
31:13 - Lewandowski should play as a pivot
31:57 - Ideal lineup for Barcelona
33:21 - Ravi’s predictions for El Clasico
35:38 - Patrick’s prediction for El Clasico
36:45 - Flick’s first Clasico
37:12 - A La Liga game vs. a Champions League game
39:19 - Leverkusen rumoured to be looking for a Xavi Alonso replacement
40:14 - The timing with Txiki’s departure and Pep’s contract expiring
40:52 - Real Madrid also make sense
41:34 - Hugo Viana and Ruben Amorim
42:21 - The obvious spot for Xabi Alonso
44:25 - What happens if Carlo Ancelotti doesn’t want to leave?
47:18 - Alonso’s contract ends in 2026
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss the eventful Liverpool vs. Chelsea match and Liverpool's defense looking vulnerable. They also discuss the impact VAR had over the weekend, and get into Saliba's red card in Arsenal's 2-0 loss to Bournemouth. Next comes Southampton's loss to Leicester and Russell Martin's comments after the game. They finish with Fulham vs. Aston Villa, Brighton vs. Newcastle and the resurgence of Raul Jimenez, Manchester United looking competent, and the trend of teams playing safer.
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00:00 - Intro
01:06 - Liverpool vs. Chelsea
03:23 - Trent Alexander-Arnold is a double-edged sword
04:22 - How cautious can you be in the modern Premier League?
05:07 - Concern for Andrew Robertson?
07:44 - Did Chelsea deserve an early penalty?
08:00 - VAR and red cards this weekend
08:44 - Caicedo as a playmaker
09:58 - This was Liverpool’s first real test
10:41 - Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
11:47 - Saliba’s red card
13:03 - Marginal calls in football
14:55 - How coaches game plan in the Premier League
16:24 - Manchester City look fragile
17:35 - Taking a red card vs. allowing a chance
19:16 - Southampton vs. Leicester City
20:36 - Russell Martin’s comments after the game
22:02 - How coaches start to talk when they want to be fired
25:29 - Mourinho’s ability to deflect from a bad performance
26:17 - Southampton’s poor performance under Martin
28:38 - 8 point gap to Leicester now
28:59 - Facundo Buonanotte and Brighton’s future
30:35 - Fulham vs. Aston Villa
33:03 - Neutral’s will love Fulham games
33:15 - Raul Jimenez is in insane form
35:10 - The resurgence of Old and Tall strikers
36:32 - Newcastle vs. Brighton
38:52 - Manchester looked competent
40:53 - Garnacho’s tendency to take wide-angle shots
42:45 - Is the trend of teams playing safer a problem?
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss all things Premier League related from the start of the season. They begin with teams that should be higher or lower than their current position in the table. Next, they decide which of the 4 relegation candidates will stay up. And finally, both Patrick and Ted give their predictions for the Top 6. Where do you think Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, and the rest of the Premier League will finish?
Sebastian's guest newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/3-young-attacking-mids-on-the-rise
Ted's preseason gambling podcast: https://youtu.be/keg7HlCXPwE
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:34 - Who is the premier league table lying about right now?
00:02:41 - Newcastle United
00:05:37 - Giving honest takes vs driving engagement
00:06:31 - The table of justice
00:07:16 - Tottenham should be slightly better
00:08:03 - Spurs are playing like a Bundesliga team
00:09:12 - Exciting young pieces
00:11:03 - Where are they likely to finish?
00:12:44 - Bournemouth are better than the Table says
00:14:30 - Optimism for Everton
00:15:10 - Guest Newsletter authors
00:15:45 - Dwight McNeil’s blossoming role
00:18:11 - A Cash injection this January can fix their issues
00:19:02 - Everton fans should be happy with the takeover
00:21:35 - Manchester United’s rough start
00:22:36 - The Model’s take on United before the season
00:24:34 - United don’t tolerate long processes
00:26:20 - United fans who have never seen the good times
00:27:12 - Of the 4 candidates, who will get relegated?
00:27:27 - Ipswich
00:29:30 - Wolves
00:31:40 - Patrick’s prediction to stay up
00:32:43 - Leicester’s 5 point advantage
00:34:06 - the difficulty making a case for any of these teams
00:36:30 - What the gambling markets say
00:38:50 - Predicting the top 6
00:39:11 - factoring in a potential punishment for City
00:41:23 - Patrick’s top 4
00:42:40 - Talent goes a long way
00:44:56 - Patrick’s title winner
00:48:07 - Patrick’s 2nd place team
00:52:39 - 3rd place
00:56:48 - Debating the Last Champions League spot
00:59:57 - Patrick’s 5th and 6th place
01:00:24 - What the betting markets say
01:01:46 - Ted’s top 6
01:03:26 - When we’ll check back in on our predictions
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi do a deep dive on the top teams in Serie A. They start with Napoli, who are top of the table despite what may have been the worst transfer window of any team. Next is Inter and their hopes back-to-back titles. Can they pull it off again despite an aging squad? Then comes Lazio, whose unconventional approach to players and manager hires sparks an interesting discussion on high variance teams. Last comes Milan, who almost sacked manager Paulo Fonseca early in the year, but have stabilized to be just 5 points out of first place. Enjoy!
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Timestamp:
00:00 - Intro
01:07 - Napoli’s fantastic start
01:40 - Our rough grades for Napoli’s window
03:04 - Lack of minutes for new players
05:26 - A more Conservative defensive style
06:28 - Grades are not based on 7 games
08:02 - Low shot quality in Serie A
10:53 - Lack of depth in attack for Napoli limits their title threat?
11:58 - Napoli’s advantage with no European Competition
14:50 - Where will they finish?
16:12 - Inter’s erratic start to the season
17:22 - The most balanced team in Serie A?
18:58 - Inter’s defensive shift
19:20 - Can the oldest team in Serie A keep this up?
21:31 - Marcus Thuram
22:39 - Do Inter need to share minutes more?
25:19 - Could they switch styles later in the year?
26:55 - Predictions for Inter’s season
27:17 - Lazio’s surprising start
28:41 - unexpected names contributing for Lazio
31:10 - Marco Baroni’s influence
35:43 - Are fringe European teams to conservative with their coaching hires?
39:12 - Thomas Tuchel’s training stories and how coaches influence their players
42:36 - Analytics only matter if you can translate them into simple messages
45:15 - Milan shake off a rough start
47:14 - Favorable matchups coming up
47:57 - Pulisic playing well and staying healthy
49:38 - Rafael Leao’s Attacking threat
51:47 - Using avoidance strategies to change player behaviors
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Dani Carvajal's injury and potential replacements that Real Madrid should consider. Can they get Trent Alexander-Arnold to come over, or should they look elsewhere? They then get into Chelsea's front line and which combinations of players is best for their team. Next, Manchester City's Director of Football Txiki Begiristain is set to leave, who are the likely hires with Pep's departure looming. Finally, Paul Pogba suspension was reduced, where are the likely landing spots for the 31-year-old Italian midfielder? Enjoy!
Ted's article on potential Toni Kroos replacements: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/kroos-ify-me
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:46 - Dani Carvajal's injury
01:34 - Specifics of the injury
04:50 - Carvajal's 1 year extension
05:23 - Solutions for Real Madrid
05:57 - A leadership gap
07:33 - Can Madrid lure Trent Alexander-Arnold?
10:03 - Hakimi as an option at RB
12:50 - Sliding Militao over from CB?
15:16 - Other candidates at RB
17:55 - Will Kroos unretire?
18:20 - Unresolved Vini Jr/Mbappe problems
19:55 - Who should play in Chelsea's front line?
24:29 - The disadvantage of signing the best players from smaller sides?
26:26 - Where does Nkunku fit in?
27:23 - Can players change their pressing style?
30:18 - Joao Felix's adaptability
31:02 - What happens against better sides?
32:33 - City lose their Director of Football, Txiki Begiristain
33:24 - How did Txiki perform?
36:17 - Potential replacements
39:09 - How does a DoF influence the rest of the back room?
42:47 - Will the next DoF be more powerful with Pep likely gone?
45:38 - Paul Pogba's suspension reduced
46:12 - Where might Pogba end up?
48:38 - Is MLS an option?
50:20 - Could he stay in Italy?
51:28 - Playing Pogba as a 10
53:16 - Taking a smaller contract to entice bigger teams
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On this Episode, Ted and Patrick do a deep dive on Brentford's fast starts to game and how teams are undervaluing set pieces. They then move to discussion on playing out of the back, which has caused issues for many teams to start the season. Next, they move to Bayern Munich's recent games and their high defensive line looking fragile. To end, the move to quick hits on Real Madrid's injury situation and their need to spend big in the winter window, Micky van de Ven struggle in Spurs' loss to to Brighton, and Cole Palmer during Chelsea's 1-1 draw with Forest. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:18 - Brentford have solved Football
01:54 - Set Pieces and Ted's history with them and Brentford
06:33 - Brentford has applied this to kickoffs
08:28 - Is it sustainable?
09:22 - Zdeněk Zeman
10:22 - Team's undervaluing set pieces
13:21 - The biggest differences between a corner and a long-throw in
16:17 - How the fast starts have helped Brentford
19:54 - Principles to watch on set pieces
22:49 - Football being influenced by other sports
25:33 - Short goal kick equilibrium
26:16 - Daryl Morey's thoughts on short Goal kicks
28:27 - Forcing other teams to adapt to your style
28:51 - The end of short goal kicks?
33:09 - Teams that adapt faster will benefit
33:17 - Bayern's recent struggles
35:13 - Omar Marmoush's good form
36:24 - Bayern's high line is vulnerable
39:03 - Pep's ability to kill off games
40:39 - Will Kompany be able to learn?
43:04 - Real Madrid's injuries and the Winter window
43:49 - Madrid are missing Kroos
44:15 - Petar Sucic as a Kimmich-like
45:35 - van de Ven and Spurs vs Brighton
47:07 - Mitoma's = Bukayo Saka?
48:45 - The Welbeck winner and 2 amazing assists from the weekend
49:15 - Chelsea vs Forest and Cole Palmer
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 7 picks. Subscribe for more!
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More on Asian Handicap betting: https://www.betshoot.com/betting-guides/asian-handicap-betting/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:54 Asian Handicap betting explained
4:23 Newsletter
5:39 Crystal Palace v Liverpool
6:42 Leicester City v Bournemouth
7:57 Arsenal v Southampton
9:11 Brentford v Wolves
10:07 West Ham v Ipswich
12:24 Man City v Fulham
14:15 Everton v Newcastle
15:48 Chelsea v Nottingham Forest
17:22 Aston Villa v Man United
19:30 Brighton v Spurs
21:25 Outro
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Patrick and Ravi discuss Arsenal's win over PSG, Dortmund's demolition of Celtic, and Barcelona's loss to Osasuna. They further analyse Dortmund's managerial situation, Barca's incredible youth integration, and Arsenal's defensive tendencies. Enjoy!
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Timestamps
00:00 Episode Overview
00:23 Intro
2:35 Arsenal v PSG Review
3:08 Lineup Reaction
6:07 Tactical Breakdown
8:35 Absence of Dembele
9:14 PSG creating identity
10:27 Arsenal’s dominant defence
13:15 Are Arsenal too defensive?
17:10 Dortmund v Celtic Review
22:51 Dortmund under Sahin
26:31 Will Dortmund sack Sahin?
28:30 Barcelona’s loss to Osasuna
30:08 How to properly rotate your squad
38:56 Champions League format thoughts
40:00 La Masia player integration
46:58 Are some positions easier to break into?
54:25 Outro
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Patrick and Ted discuss the best way for Manchester United to move on from Erik Ten Hag and debate whether Cole Palmer is currently the best player in the Premier League. They also analyse the Madrid Derby and do a deep dive on Bayern Munich under new manager Vincent Kompany. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 Episode Overview
00:36 Intro
1:46 Bayern vs Leverkusen review
4:30 Bayern going under the radar
6:55 Match breakdown
9:47 Kompany’s impact
11:30 The Pep Guardiola Effect
13:52 Man United vs Spurs Review
18:58 United’s terrible midfield
19:32 Spurs looking dangerous
19:54 Ten Hag and Man United’s summer recruitment
23:56 Man United’s new manager hunt
40:59 Chelsea’s start to the season
43:34 How not to play out from the back
44:43 Nicolas Jackson’s hot start
45:00 Is Cole Palmer the best player in the League?
51:00 James Justin golazo
51:30 Madrid Derby Review
56:17 Outro
57:42 Variance Betting Subscription update
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Patrick and Ravi discuss how Man City can cope without Rodri, potential replacements, and a La Liga Roundup. They analyse Barcelona's strong start to the season, Real Madrid's start studded squad, Atletico Madrid's solid defence, and ownership issues in the league. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 Episode overview
00:37 Intro
1:53 Barcelona’s surprising form
2:30 Ter Stegan’s injury & replacements
9:09 Can Barcelona hold off Real Madrid?
13:16 Real Madrid’s recent form
15:44 Lacking balance in midfield
17:42 Madrid’s stacked attack
20:50 Concerns about defence
22:40 Atletico Madrid’s Strengths & Weaknesses
26:25 Analysing Atleti’s solid defence
29:13 Valencia’s struggles
31:40 Sevilla’s ownership issues
32:56 Valencia under Peter Lim
37:22 Rodri ACL injury
41:40 Impact on Man City
43:15 How can City cope?
47:10 What solution will Pep come up wIth?
50:18 Potential Rodri replacements
1:00:45 Outro
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Patrick and Ted discuss how Pep Guardiola didn't take advantage of Arsenal going down to 10 men, Danny Welbeck's rejuvenation, and Luis Diaz's improvement. They also recap all the other action from this weekend's Premier League games, including West Ham's horrible defence, and a deep dive into Arsenal's set-pieces. Enjoy!
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00:00 Episode Overview
00:30 Intro
1:47 Crystal Palace v Manchester United Review
4:24 Thoughts on Zirkzee
6:33 United’s Improved Defence
7:37 Man City vs Arsenal Review
9:17 Calafiori Golazo
10:51 Gabriel Goal & Arsenal Set Pieces
15:40 Second Half Analysis
18:03 Arsenal Defence
21:38 West Ham v Chelsea Review
22:32 Thoughts on Lopetegui
24:38 West Ham Defensive Issues
27:44 Fulham v Newcastle Review
32:45 Liverpool v Bournemouth
36:00 Luis Diaz Improvement
37:30 Brighton v Nottingham
38:25 Goals Analysis
40:28 Danny Welbeck Rejuvenation
41:40 Refereeing In Premier League
43:28 Brighton Being A Young Arsenal
44:30 Weekend Recap
46:30 Outro
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 5 picks and why he is betting AGAINST Liverpool. Subscribe for more!
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction
00:45 Last Week Recap
1:12 TheTransferFlow & VarianceBetting
2:13 Closing Line Value
6:11 Why Does It Matter?
7:25 West Ham v Chelsea
9:17 Aston Villa v Wolves
10:41 Fulham v Newcastle
11:54 Leicester v Everton
13:42 Southampton v Ipswich
15:31 Liverpool v Bournemouth
17:59 Spurs v Brentford
19:31 Crystal Palace v Manchester United
21:37 Brighton v Nottingham Forest
22:37 Manchester City v Arsenal
24:45 Championship Betting
25:15 Conclusion
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Ted and Ravi discuss Manchester City and Inter Milan's chances of winning the Champions League, changes to Erling Haaland's role, Barcelona's strong start and their expectations for the season. They then answer some listener questions which include discussions on player stocks, what to do when teams begin to figure you out, and a deep dive into the use of data to overturn some traditional football opinions.
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Episode Overview
00:33 Introduction
2:38 Man City VS Inter Milan
3:20 Inter in the UCL
6:45 Man City’s UCL Squad
7:45 Man City’s New Style Of Play
12:50 New UCL Format
18:32 Player Fatigue
20:42 Barcelona As Contendors
22:10 Dani Olmo & Barca Injuries
23:35 Hansi Flick’s Bareclona
25:35 Emergence of Youngsters
27:17 Barcelona Expectations
29:05 Biggest Changes Under Flick
32:42 Barca’s UCL Schedule
33:08 Most Entertaining Team
33:42 Hansi Flick vs Xavi
36:25 Players Stocks
39:22 Stocks To Buy
40:14 Bournemouth Under Iraola
40:47 Teams Figuring You Out
43:36 Two Halves of a Season
46:30 Kieran McKenna
47:15 Using Data To Overturn Traditional Opinions
58:45 In Swinging Corners vs Out Swinging Corners
1:03:16 Outro
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Patrick and Ted start the episode by discussing the North London Derby and the weakness that Spurs continue to show in their midfield. Next, they move to Liverpool, who seemed to have fixed there defense, but were unable to get anything going offensively. After touching on City vs Brighton and United vs Southampton, they move to Newcastle's Internal power struggle, as Eddie Howe and Paul Mitchell compete for power. Finally, they end the episode with their thoughts on Chelsea vs Bournemouth (hint: not good) and West Ham vs Fulham. Enjoy!
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
03:28 - Arsenal vs. Spurs
04:47 - The midfield battle
06:30 - Spurs crosses were not effective
07:38 - How teams can get value from crosses
09:23 - Watching the ball vs. the man
10:11 - Spurs' biggest weakness
10:41 - The type of midfielder Spurs needed
11:52 - More opportunities for mistakes
13:40 - The evolution of pressing
14:33 - Alexis Sanchez' pressing ability
15:32 - Arsenal's plan this game
18:39 - The launch of Variance Betting
19:38 - Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
19:53 - High handicaps coming off international break
20:43 - The signs of value of Nottingham Forest
22:22 - Liverpool's defense continues to shine
23:14 - Liverpool's offensive struggles
25:05 - Ryan Gravenberch in a deeper role
27:16 - Brentford vs. City
28:11 - Thomas Frank as Manager
31:12 - Brentford's possession #'s against City
31:28 - City's lack of pressing
32:05 - The problems Pep is facing
34:20 - Manchester United vs Southampton
35:37 - United's set piece goal
36:40 - Tyler Dibling
37:24 - Is Russell Martin's job safe?
40:13 - Newcastle's internal conflict
42:21 - Paul Mitchell vs Eddie Howe
44:24 - Newcastle are doing well in the table
44:46 - How do Newcastle mend things?
46:06 - Chelsea vs Bournemouth
47:17 - Subbing in Neto for Jadon Sancho
48:09 - Bad signs for long-term success
48:55 - Chelsea need a structured attack
50:53 - West Ham vs Fulham
51:37 - Danny Ings
53:21 - Brighton vs Ipswich
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more!
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction
1:44 Who is Ted Knutson?
2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products
3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds
4:05 Founding StatsBomb
4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com
4:58 Variance Betting Principles
5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses
8:20 Price Shop
10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge
12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky
13:54 Your Bets are your own
14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model
16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams
17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model
18:07 Caveats
21:06 Plugs
20:23 Recreational Sports Betting
22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet
23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet
25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet
26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet
26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet
27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet
28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet
29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet
31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet
32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet
33:31 Recap
33:54 Outro
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Ted and Ravi start by discussing a controversial analytics take from someone that's a part of the community. Next, they talk about Chelsea's owner rift and the leaks that suggest a potential buyout may happen. They then get into discussion about Arsenal's injury situation with Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino set to miss time. And finally, they wrap up with the MLS transfer window and all of the things that you need to know about that, including biggest additions and misses of the window.
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Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q
X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
01:48 - Is analytics for player recruitment solved?
03:18 - every action in football has 3 parts
04:40 - You don't have data for everything
06:15 - Difficulty at scale
07:30 - Different level of information impacting decision makers
09:48 - Evaluating players from lower leagues
11:53 - Player factors impact on transfer success
13:55 - Chelsea's ownership rift
16:13 - Boehly joined and isntantly became Interim Sporting Director
16:58 - Where this confidence comes from
17:43 - 2 captains driving the boat
19:52 - Football clubs run like investment funds
21:46 - Blitzer and Harris make co-ownership work
22:31 - Arsenal's injury situation
23:59 - Small point loses feel insurmountable
25:04 - What would a long-term Odegaard injury mean?
26:06 - Champions League format changes help
26:29 - September International break
29:18 - MLS window rules and time period
30:21 - MLS is paying real money
32:22 - Their offset window creates mismatches
33:45 - Josh Sargent example
35:17 - How MLS can fix this issue
35:58 - Extra problems that come with overseas transfers
37:48 - The profile of MLS Winter signings
38:28 - NWSL eliminating the draft
39:45 - MLS academies draining talent out of the draft
41:12 - Balancing International roster spots
42:13 - Big free agent signings - Giroud and Reus
42:50 - Discovery Lists
44:16 - Griezmann rumours
47:15 - MLS connection with South/Latin America
48:15 - Spurs weird deal for Johnny Cardoso
49:20 - More additions to the MLS this year
51:10 - Players the U.S. and Canada excel at creating
52:26 - Deals that fell through because of the deadline mismatches
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