Episódios
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We chat about the plausible foreign policy implications of the results of the 2024 US elections.
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The US election has finally occurred and the Republicans seem like the big winner -- winning the presidency, the Senate, and in line to win the House of Representatives.
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We discuss Prof Yuen Yuen Ang's article on the clash of the US and China as that of two gilded ages rather than clash of civilizations. We then talk about the polls just a few days before the US presidential election and how the election is still too close to call.
Recommended reading list:
https://www.noemamag.com/the-clash-of-two-gilded-ages/
Luebbert, Gregory M, Liberalism, Fascism, or Social Democracy: Social Classes and the Political Origins of Regimes in Interwar Europe (New York, NY, 1991; online edn, Oxford Academic, 31 Oct. 2023), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195066104.001.0001, accessed 3 Nov. 2024.
Rogowski, Ronald. 1999. Commerce and Coalitions. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203518588-26/commerce-coalitions-trade-affects-domestic-political-alignments-ronald-rogowski
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In this episode we discuss reports that North Korean soldiers are fighting in Ukraine. We then talk about an essay published by the Royal United Services Institute about the possible of betrayal of Ukraine and why this betrayal is likely to happen. We discuss the Foreign Affairs article about the problem of depopulation that the world is facing today and what this means. Lastly, the snap election in Japan backfired for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as it lost its parliamentary majority.
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We chat about Nick's research presentation at the Southeast Asia Research Initiative seminar on the implications of great power rivalry on Southeast Asia and then examine whether there is validity in the concern that the United States is losing its position of influence in Southeast Asia to China as other global issues drags America's attention to the region.
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We examine the implications of the conflict in the Mideast to our region and discuss a recent essay in Foreign Affairs that calls for a change of approach to US Mideast strategy. The Khalistan movement has supporters in NZ that are holding a referendum on Sikh independence. Then the sad news of the sinking of the RNZN survey ship in Samoa while doing a survey of the seabed.
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We chat about two research papers we conducted on Pacific maritime space. One research is about Fiji and Solomon Islands and how these two countries exercise their agency and the second paper is on fisheries and maritime security issues. We then talk about our own impressions of the US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Lastly, we discuss a BBC article on the battleground states in this November's US presidential election. Does issue saliency affected by the politics within these battleground states?
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Indonesian activity in the South China Sea is increasing as the country builds its own military bases in disputed waters while ferreting out Chinese fishing vessels that intrude into their EEZ. Is this another conflict that adds to an already tense theatre? Chinese industrial overcapacity has seen protectionist actions by members of the Global South, what does this mean for Chinese ambitions as a leader of this group and its own domestic concerns? Pope Francis was in Southeast Asia, praising the diversity and social harmony in the region, what lessons can the rest of the world take from the experiences of the Southeast Asian nations in building diverse societies?
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Two articles published in prominent foreign policy magazines from well-known observers of international affairs of the Asia-Pacific. Ryan Haas in his article suggested that US planning policies on the basis of peaked China is not a good idea. Second article is a letter from Singapore to the next US president urging the US to stopped being so obsessed with being number 1.
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Japan PM Kishida steps down and opens up new leadership contest within the LDP. Is it 'plus ca change' in the case of Japanese politics? Clan politics seem to be the name of the game in two Southeast Asian countries -- Thailand and Indonesia. Thailand's new PM is the formerly exiled Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter and the Shinawatra family seem to be on the mend with other significant actors in Thailand. Indonesia's outgoing president Jokowi was supposed to be the outsider but now seems to be ensuring that his family/clan will be signficant insiders in Indonesian politics. Lastly, NZ PM Chris Luxon gave an important foreign policy speech in Sydney. So now that Luxon talks the talk, the question remains is can he also walk the walk considering the difficult economic situation NZ finds itself in today.
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The US election in November is creating lots of anxieties globally. Despite the excitement with the Kamala Harris candidacy, questions remain about what is likely to happen the day after the first Tuesday of November. What does a Harris presidency mean Asia-Pacific? What does a second Trump administration mean for international relations of Asia-Pacific?
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Theories of international relations have been constructed from experiences of continental Europe. Yet, in the Asia-Pacific it seems like a uneasy fit because of the complex geography of the region. In this episode, Dr Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center in Washington DC explains to us her research on geography and its implications to coalition-building in the Asia-Pacific region.
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UK foreign minister David Lammy visits India very early into the new Labour government term in the hopes of resetting UK-India relations and mark by a focus on the importance of trade and economics. Trump in an appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists made a controversial comment on presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris' Black and Indian dual identities. Trump's comment shows an ignorance of identity code-switching. Lastly, global central banks seem to feel that the worse of pandemic era inflation is at an end but when to start moving interest rates downward is still more art than science.
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US President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and VP Kamala Harris is in the race. Is this the shot in the arm that the Democrats are looking for? Will the Democrats be able to retain the White House? Deadly riots in Bangladesh due to student protests on job quotas. Is there more to these riots that what meets the eye? Japan reported a 15th year of population decline. What are the implications of continued shrinking population? NZ PM Luxon has been on the job less than 12 months and already his approval ratings have dropped. Why? Paris Olympic has started and even before the Olympic flame has been lit in the opening ceremony, a spying scandal involving the Canada's women football team has dented the idea of 'fair play' that the Olympics stand for.
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Indian Prime Minister Modi visits Putin in Moscow. Is India playing both sides or is this what is called 'strategic autonomy?' Days before the Republican National Convention, there was an attempted assassination of ex-president Donald Trump who is also the Republican presidential nominee. In the RNC convention, Trump selected a young Ohio politician who seems to be a younger version of Trump. Meanwhile Democrats are trying to advise Biden to drop out of his reelection bid...which he did on Sunday...that surprised his VP Kamala Harris who he has endorsed as the Democratic nominee.
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We discuss the fallout of the Biden/Trump debate for our region, is Plan B now Plan A? Putin and Kim Jong-Un signed a mutual defense pact, what are the implications for regional security? ISEAS study that re-analysed the Southeast Asian survey and inferred that China's power is recognised but feared meanwhile NYT article suggests that US is a more humble superpower in China's neighbourhood of the Asia-Pacific.
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What is independent about NZ's independent foreign policy? Is it myth or reality? Is it tautological? Does using the term prevent true discussion of NZ's foreign policy direction? Modi's response to a congratulatory message from Taiwan's president drew the expected protest from the PRC. Are there meanings behind these overtures? Saudi and US are ending a 50-year long agreement to price Saudi oil in US dollars and Saudi's commitment to use its oil revenues to purchase US Treasury bonds. This news barely made the headlines! What are the implications?
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