Episódios
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In this Episode, I re-cap the recent news and events in the ongoing war between Los Chapitos and MZ in Culiacan.
Then I discuss the trial of El Menchito who was convicted in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia this week. In particular, I examine the witnesses against El Menchito, including cooperating witnesses with both reasons to testify for the government and, in several cases, deep opposition to the CJNG and El Mencho.
Finally, I draw parallels between El Menchito's trial and the trials of Ruben Zuno Arce, and I express my concerns over the potential for the desire for convictions to overwhelm the commitment to justice.
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In this news report Episode, we discuss the violent confrontations between "armed civilians" rocking Culiacan since early morning.
Most significantly, we look at the many reports of audio recordings confirming that Ismael Zambada Sicairos ("Mayito Flaco"), the presumed leader of the Mayo Zambada faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, has authorized or instructed his hitmen to attack Los Chapitos in Culiacan.
We also consider whether this is the "war" some expected after Joaquin Guzman apparently duped El Mayo into a meeting and abducted him, eventually flying El Mayo to the US and into the custody of the FBI.
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In this Labor Day edition of the podcast, I look at three interesting developments in the last few days. First, I discuss Osiel Cardenas Guillen's release from federal prison. Specifically, I discuss the fact that he was placed in the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the reports that he will be turned over to Mexican authorities on Monday.
Second, I look into reports that Jorge Humberto Figueroa Benitez (El 27 or El Perris), who, according to some, replaced El Nini, was the one who physically tied up El Mayo and put him in the back of the pickup truck. I also consider whether this indicates a larger role for Los Chapitos in addition to Joaquin, particularly in light of recent stories that Ovidio Guzman has been placed into the witness protection program.
Finally, we consider the violent clashes in Culiacan late last week, the premature rumors of Ivan's capture, and who the real targets of the Mexican military might have been.
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The government's case in the Zuno II trial rested largely on the testimony of two former Jalisco State Police officers, Jorge Godoy and Rene Lopez Romero. In this Episode, I look into the backgrounds of these two men and specifically discuss their admissions to having been employed by Ernesto Fonseca and witnesses to and participants in various crimes including the torture and murder of American citizens. Moreover, Lopez even claimed to have participated in the abduction of Agent Camarena and nevertheless received money and immunity for his testimony.
I also look at the highly dubious timing of statements from both men implicating Ruben Zuno Arce, coming only days after the affirmance of the new trial order and after many DEA interviews without implicating Zuno.
Finally, I discuss the untold number of witnesses presented to the DEA and the unknown amount of money paid to potential and actual witnesses, including Godoy and Lopez.
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In the two Zuno trials, prosecution witness testified to several alleged conspiracy meetings to discuss and plan the abduction of Agent Camarena. In this episode, we assess the credibility of those allegations and of the witnesses themselves.
Specifically, we discuss the number of alleged meetings (as many as 10 over 3-4 months), the number of people at the alleged meetings (more than 70), the high-profile people alleged to have been at some of the meetings, the inconsistencies between the testimony regarding the alleged meetings between Zuno I and Zuno, and, finally, the internal inconsistencies within the Zuno II testimony of Jorge Godoy.
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Today's Episode concludes my three-part analysis of the abduction of Agent Camarena from outside the America consulate.
Specifically, in this Episode I reach some conclusions regarding the abduction including conclusions regarding the participation and statements of Rene Lopez Romero, the veracity of Agent Berrellez's discussions on the abduction, and the participation of Caro Quintero. Finally, I discuss the near perfect timing of the abductors and the questions presented by that timing.
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Again this week, the arrests of El Mayo and Joaquin Guzman Lopez have dominated the cartel-related conversation. In this Episode, I look at the latest reports and rumors regarding the events that lead to the plane carrying El Mayo and Joaquin landing in New Mexico and the two men being taken into custody.
I then discuss the possible power vacuum created by El Mayo's arrest and refer to articles from two experts on the issue.
Finally, I review letters from Senator Chuck Grassley written to several officials raising the specter of inter-agency rivalry that led to stand down orders when investigators had gotten close to capturing Alfredo Guzman and other Chapitos.
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The HUGE news this week was the arrest of Ismael Zambada (El Mayo), a leader and founder of the Sinaloa Cartel, and Joaquin Guzman Lopez, son of El Chapo and one of Los Chapitos.
In this Episode, I discuss the known facts about the arrests and consider the primary theories on how the arrests occurred. I also look at what the arrests could mean for the stability of the CDS, and the potential for power grabs by CJNG and other cartels.
Finally, I examine the abduction of Dr. Humberto Alvarez Machain from Mexico, U.S. Supreme Court decisions regarding his abduction and the extradition treaty between the United States and Mexico, and how that precedent might apply to the rendition of El Mayo.
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Many of the alleged witnesses to the abduction of Agent Camarena case provide narratives of the abduction that are both inconsistent over time and irreconcilable with each other.
In this Episode, I explore these inconsistencies focusing in particular on the names of the alleged participants, descriptions of the abduction location, and the some of the alleged details about the abduction, including the alleged participation of a consulate employee who, one alleged witness claims, identified Agent Camarena to his abductors.
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In this Episode, I examine the abduction of Agent Camarena, focusing particularly on the timeline of events surrounding the abduction.
Initially, I discuss the known facts that present a narrow, and very specific, time frame when the abduction could have occurred.
Next, I look at the statements of alleged witnesses and others regarding the timeline for the abduction. This analysis demonstrates that none of these statements appear to fit within the required timeframe, calling into question the veracity and credibility of these sources.
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In this special Episode, my 100th, I reflect back on to the Camarena case and look forward to efforts to clear the record of false narratives and blatant misrepresentations about the case.
Specifically, in this Episode, I discuss some of the reasons why the Camarena case is highly personal to me. I also reflect on the need to resolve some unanswered issues surrounding the case in order to honor the legacy of Agent Camarena and to respect the legacy of those who worked with Agent Camarena, those who searched for him, and those who sought to bring his killers to justice.
I then consider the false narratives around the case, including those presented by the government in the prosecution of Ruben Zuno Arce and others.
Finally, I reflect on the false and malicious claims made by Agent Berrellez and his so-called witnesses in The Last Narc and elsewhere.
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In this abbreviated, Father's Day Episode, I discuss a few of the topics focused on in the last few months and add new information or perspectives.
Specifically, I look at the "final" results from the Mexican elections and discuss the near super majority of the MORENA party in Mexico's Congress. I also examine the continuing responses by the Mexican markets to MORENA's dominance in the elections.
I also discuss institutional reforms proposed by AMLO, which President-elect Sheinbaum seems to support.
I also consider recent data indicating that 2023 was the first year in many to experience a decrease in the number of drug overdoses and propose possible explanations for that change.
Finally, I look at recent reports that both El Mayo and El Mencho are close to death and consider the potential ramifications if one or both of these cartel leaders passes.
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Mexico's national elections on June2 were historic in many respects. Most significantly is that Mexico elected its first woman, and first Jewish, President, and did so by an unprecedented margin.
In this Episode, I discuss the election and look toward Mexico's future by discussing the reaction of the Mexican markets to Mrs. Scheinbaum's election and evaluating how her presidency could impact Mexico's relationship with the United States. I also consider how outgoing President Lopez Obrador could influence Mexican policies even after he leaves office.
Finally, I try to distill the myriad factors to assess potential changes in the Mexican government's efforts to combat the cartels.
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On June 2, Medico is likely to elect the first female President in a North American country. In addition to electing a President, the elections will fill the 628 seats of the bicameral federal Congress, eight state governorships, the Mexico City mayorship, and more than 20,000 local offices.
In this Episode, I consider the Mexican elections by looking at the two primary candidates for the presidency and their positions on key issues. I also look the violence in the lead up to the elections, and the role of the cartels in the electoral process. Finally, I address AMLO's role as the outgoing President, and what it says about Mexico's democracy, today and in the future.
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The efforts of Mexican cartels to launder the hundreds of millions of dollars in illicit profits in the U.S. have been a focus of law enforcement and regulators on both sides of the border. In this Episode, I discuss an analysis of those laundering efforts published in the Journal of Illicit Economies and Development.
The article, among other topics, details incidents of corruption at the highest levels of the Mexican government. The article also discusses the money laundering statutes in the United States.
The article provides a case study of money laundering by Los Zetas through the quarter horse racing industry in the U.S. The authors then present several examples of systemics corruption in the Mexican government at the state level.
Finally, we discuss the six proposals for reform the authors suggest might assist in stemming the flow of illicit funds into the U.S.
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Last week, the DEA presented its annual National Drug Threat Assessment (NDTA). In this Episode, I discuss some of the more significant observations in the NDTA.
Specifically, I look at the NDTA's description of the Sinaloa and Jalisco Cartels, including their leadership structures, drug trafficking patterns, international presences, and other illegal activities.
I also present the NDTA's findings on the illegal drug threats in the United States, identified by seizures and overdose deaths.
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The use of social media has become an integral part of the operation of Mexican cartels and has expanded their reach and influence in new and profound ways.
In this Episode, I look at the narrative themes in the cartel's social media presence, as well at the specific operational strategies and objectives fueled by social media.
I also examine the Combating Cartels on Social Media Act of 2023, a bill currently pending in Congress.
Finally, I discuss current trends in cartels' social media use, and the propaganda "boosts" often unintentionally provided to cartels by news and other media outlets.
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This last week, news reports highlighted the arrest of Abraham Oseguera Cervantes (alias "Don Rondo"), the older brother of CJNG leader El Mencho.
In this Episode, I discuss not only Don Rondo's arrest but also the arrest of other relatives of El Mencho, including another brother (El Tony Montana), his son, daughter, and wife.
Specifically, I discuss the often overly dramatic and misleading press reports surrounding these arrests and I examine the utility of this approach, one that has been used by the U.S. and Mexican governments, as well as those in other Latin American countries.
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Earlier this month, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced the implementation of Operation Border Spike, which it called the next step in the CBP's strategy to combat fentanyl and other synthetic drugs. Operation Border Spike begins with a focus on the Nogales, Sonora plaza and the plaza's boss.
In this Episode, I give a brief overview of the city of Nogales, and then focus on the elements of Operation Border Spike, as announced by CBP. I then provide a brief history of the man at the head of the Nogales plaza -- Sergio Valenzuela Valenzuela. In particular, I look at Valenzuela's rise to power and his close relationship with CDS leader El Mayo Zamabada.
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One of the more profound impacts of the Cartel wars has been the focus on the violence in many areas of the country, and corresponding diminishing attention to Mexico's rich and diverse history, culture, and economy.
In this Episode, I look at this concept through the lens of Ciudad Juarez. Specifically, I examine the city's fascinating history, as well the rise and fall of the Juarez Cartel. Next, I look at the current Cartel battles for control of the city and the economy in Juarez today.
Finally, I put a human face on the cartel influences in Juarez by looking at the tragic impact the violence has had on the children of Juarez, their education, and their families.
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