Episódios
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ABSTRACT
Israel’s policy towards both terrorist semi-states (TSS)—Fatahland and Hamas-controlled Gaza—shows a puzzling variation over time between threat-management (i.e., deterrence and/or brute force capacity-reduction) and entity-elimination. We hold that a military-based cost-benefit analysis cannot fully account for this variation. This explanation predicts that Israel would avoid the costly and risky TSS-elimination as long as Israel can effectively manage the military danger through the much cheaper deterrence/periodical capacity reduction or when there is a high risk of not getting a much better option partly due to the danger of creating a power-vacuum into which other terrorists may reenter. Yet, some Israeli Prime Ministers pursued TSS-elimination notwithstanding the vacuum consideration and deterrence working. By adding a non-military variable—the extent to which Israel’s policy-makers believe that the TSS harms their ideologically-preferred foreign policy goals—we can better reconstruct changes in threat perception and hence better explain policy variation. The TSSs became an intolerable danger only when non-military threats were involved. Israel was willing to tolerate TSSs when the Prime Minister believed they did not pose a political/ideological threat but sought to eliminate them when he thought they did, if there seemed to be a feasible alternative.
Honig, Or, and Ido Yahel. "Entity-Elimination or Threat Management? Explaining Israel’s Shifting Policies Towards Terrorist Semi-States." Terrorism and political violence 32.5 (2020): 901-920.
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Abstract
In this article, I argue that the “theological and social-psychological radicalisation model”, which has been primarily used in a Western context, has influenced the strategies used by the Kenyan government to explain and combat radicalisation and terrorism. The model predominantly focuses on religion and social networks as crucial to the radicalisation process. My research in Kenya demonstrates how the underlying principles of the model are used in a non-Western context. I claim that the Kenyan government is increasingly using the model to delegate surveillance, especially to the security sector but also to some civil society actors. As illustrated in my findings, Kenya has, through specific definitions, reports and statements, contributed to the institutionalisation of the term radicalisation and its link to Islam. My argument is substantiated by an analysis of official policy documents, official statements and interviews. Paradoxically, the hard approach taken by the security sector in Kenya towards the Muslim population seems to have further fuelled radicalisation in the country. -Torhild Breidlid "Countering or contributing to radicalisation and violent extremism in Kenya? A critical case study." Critical Studies on Terrorism 14, no. 2 (2021): 225-246.
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ABSTRACT
British counterinsurgency thinking today remains strongly influenced by the Malaya Emergency (1948–1960) but little-known is the extensive women’s outreach program, pioneered by Lady Templer, involving the Women’s Institute and British Red Cross. Through discourse analysis of archival records, this article identifies four discourses characterizing British women’s participation, used, at the time, to make acceptable their presence whilst distancing them from the counterinsurgency campaign. By exploring how women’s presence has been negotiated and marginalized, I will reveal the blurred boundaries of counterinsurgency, questioning how the role of the counterinsurgent is constructed and sustained over time and for what purpose.
-Hannah West (2021): Camp follower or counterinsurgent? Lady Templer and the forgotten wives, Small Wars & Insurgencies
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Insecurity in the Niger Delta: Emerging Threats in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers States is a European Union-funded in-depth study of the issue of insecurity in the Niger Delta, the oil-producing region of Nigeria. Security in the region is usually assessed from the context of the absence of threats to the oil industry. This study goes beyond that limited view, using case studies drawn from the six states in the South-South geopolitical zone to show emerging security threats in the region and the complex network of factors behind them. The chapters address issues of insecurity such as youth gangs/cults, sea piracy, and sea robbery, election violence, communal conflicts, land disputes, chieftaincy tussles, armed robbery, human trafficking, internal population... - Judith Burdin Asuni, Celestine Oyom Bassey, Tarila Marclint Ebiede "Insecurity in the Niger Delta: A Report on Emerging Threats in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers States. United Kingdom." Adonis & Abbey Publishers Limited, 2021.
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https://www.facebook.com/Conflict-Terrorism-Studies-with-Wisdom-106729171499245
Contact: [email protected]
Abstract
How can neo-patrimonialism aid our understanding of the materiality of counterterrorism and the expansion of terrorism? While previous works on the growth of terrorism have focused on issues such as the spread of radical religious ideology, US foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and poverty, recent works have examined factors such as the formation of linkages with other terrorist groups, fragmentation into cell-structures, forming of franchises, and exploitation of clannism and ethnicity. However, studies that interrogate the rentier nature of African and MENA region security institutions and its implications for the rise of terrorism are yet to be accounted for. This article draws from field research done in Nigeria between 2015 and 2019. It traced the expansion of terrorism in Nigeria to the neo-patrimonial systems inherent in security and political institutions, which are engaged in corrupt financial practices that breed a counterterrorism economy.
Njoku, Emeka Thaddues. "Merchants of Terror: Neo-Patrimonialism, Counterterrorism Economy, and Expansion of Terrorism in Nigeria." African Conflict and Peacebuilding Review 10, no. 2 (2020): 83-107.
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https://www.facebook.com/Conflict-Terrorism-Studies-with-Wisdom-106729171499245
Contact: [email protected]
Abstract
This article examines the reasons for the rise of the Taliban and the onset of the insurgency in Afghanistan after the 2001 U.S. invasion, using counterfactual and path dependence analysis to bolster its arguments. We argue that the U.S. decision to de-Talibanize was a critical juncture, after which the rise of insurgency was far harder to prevent. The total rejection of the Taliban translated into the under-representation of Pashtuns in the Afghan government, delivering power to ethnic minorities at their expense. De-Talibanization led the United States to support strongmen to hunt the Taliban, but they were predatory, creating grievances that the Taliban exploited to recruit. Finally, de-Talibanization led many Taliban to flee to Pakistan, pushing them into the country most opposed to Afghanistan new political order. The lessons of the U.S. experience in Afghanistan suggest the necessity of a strategy for managing defeated enemies after an initial military victory.
- Bacon, Tricia, and Daniel Byman. "De-Talibanization and the Onset of Insurgency in Afghanistan." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2021): 1-25.
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https://www.facebook.com/Conflict-Terrorism-Studies-with-Wisdom-106729171499245
Contact: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
The kidnapping of 276 schoolgirls from the village of Chibok, Nigeria, in 2014 drew the world's attention to the previously little-known extremist group Boko Haram. Numerous questions followed, among them: Where did Boko Haram come from? What explains the rise of this militant Islamic group and its increasingly violent actions? What is its relationship to the Islamic State? Jacob Zenn addresses these questions in his detailed chronicle of the foundation of Boko Haram, its strategy and tactics, and its evolution as a global Jihadist movement. Drawing on exclusive interviews and extensive primary sources in Arabic and Hausa, Zenn reveals the group's inner working and the dynamics of its trajectory.
- Zenn, Jacob. Unmasking Boko Haram: Exploring Global Jihad in Nigeria. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2020.
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ABSTRACT
Rationalist research expects that groups claim credit for terrorism. Yet, the vast majority of attacks are not claimed. Of the unclaimed attacks, about half are attributed to a specific group. What factors impact claiming decisions? While extant literature largely treats claiming as binary—either claimed or not—the present study disaggregates claiming decisions further to also consider attacks with attributions of credit but no claim, using data from 160 countries between 1998 and 2016. Both attack-level and situational factors impact claiming decisions. Disaggregating claiming behavior shows meaningful differences. Specifically, competitive environments and suicide attacks increase claims but not attributions. Higher fatalities in general increase both claims and attributions, but when the target is civilian attributions decrease with a high body count whereas claims increase. Further, while the directional impact of other variables is the same, the magnitude of their effects vary between claims and attributions. Results are robust across modeling specifications. Findings demonstrate that our understanding of claiming behaviors is limited when claiming is treated as dichotomous. This study provides further insight into factors that impact claiming decisions for terrorism. Results can address data issues in academic research and inform counterterrorism responses.
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ABSTRACT
This article addresses the scholarly debate over sectarianism and the Provisional Irish Republican Army’s (PIRA) campaign during the Northern Ireland Troubles. It argues that although there is much merit in the contributions made in this discourse, unfortunately, for, the most part, there is a lack of engagement with the deeper meaning of sectarianism. Consequently, it seeks to enhance the understanding of sectarianism within this arena before considering the nature of the PIRA campaign. By conducting a thorough analysis of the killings conducted by this organisation in the early years of the conflict it is ultimately concluded that, at the very least, PIRA tolerated, and likely sanctioned, sectarian violence from within its ranks. - Martin J. McCleery (2021): Sectarianism and the Provisional Irish Republican Army, Small Wars & Insurgencies
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ABSTRACT
In counterinsurgency, U.S. officials often feel trapped by a local ally who appears unable to survive the departure of U.S. forces. Advocates for withdrawal argue that only a deadline to depart will induce local governments to accept greater burdens, while critics of this position argue that plans to withdraw embolden insurgents. We argue instead that American leaders gain leverage from U.S. public opinion favouring withdrawal. Analysis of 200+ U.S. demands of local allied governments in Vietnam and Iraq suggests that public pressure for withdrawal is associated with greater local compliance, but that formal U.S. withdrawal plans does not motivate compliance. - Dr Barbara Elias
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ABSTRACT
Using data from 10 months of field research in Côte d’Ivoire, this article explores the question of why certain groups of ex-combatants in that country are interested in posing a threat to the state, while others are not. It finds that demobilised pro-Gbagbo fighters who have received the least from the post-conflict period are also those most apathetic about threatening the post-war order. The paper argues this is due to expectations among this group of combatants that they would receive meagre assistance in the aftermath of a conflict they had lost, and the perception that their post-war position would remain fixed. By contrast, those demobilised and reinserted Forces Nouvelles (FN) troops who had lofty expectations of the post-war period because of promises made to them during the conflict, were quick to become frustrated with the post-war reality and make aggressive demands of the government. The study underscores the importance of expectations management and effective communication strategies with ex-combatants in the aftermath of conflict. - Moody, Jessica. "Ex-combatants thinking differently: attitudes to threatening the state in post-conflict Côte d’Ivoire." Conflict, Security & Development (2020): 1-23.
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ABSTRACT
Despite the promise of the 2016 Colombian peace agreement, this paper argues that the intersection of poverty, insecurity and exclusion threatens sustainable peace in Colombia. In asserting this argument, the paper advances two case studies: the false positives scandal, which demonstrates the vulnerability of the poor to various security threats, and the coca eradication programme, which has fuelled further violence and economic insecurity on impoverished rural people. This paper uses these cases to highlight how poverty is used to legitimise, and is intertwined with, structural and physical violence in Colombia. These cases further shed light on the political economy of violence in Colombia, which legitimises the unequal distribution of wealth, exposes the poor to violence, and disguises crimes of the powerful through the narrative of the deviant or underserving poor and the rhetoric of maintaining security or advancing development. Fundamentally, this article posits that although the post-conflict moment presents a profound opportunity for transformational change, continued socio-economic inequalities and violence against the poor in Colombia will affect the ability to create a sustainable and meaningful peace. - Gordon, Eleanor, Sebastian Restrepo Henao, Alejandra Zuluaga Duque, and Elliot Dolan-Evans. "Power, poverty and peacebuilding: the violence that sustains inequalities and undermines peace in Colombia." Conflict, Security & Development (2020): 1-25.
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ABSTRACT
As opposed to the three decades following independence, interstate wars have become frequent in the African great lakes region since 1990. This article analyses the unravelling of these wars and looks at their causes and consequences. The conceptual framework to analyse the clear but convoluted line linking these conflicts is that of path dependence and critical junctures. Each stage is defined in these terms. The article shows that path dependence is the main explanatory factor, but that critical junctures have played out at crucial moments, including when the initial stage was set in Uganda. It concludes that a very longue durée path dependence can be found in Rwanda, where most threads of the conflicts converge. However, it also finds that extreme state weakness in Zaire/DR Congo has been and still is a major contributory factor to the cross-border violence. The article finally argues that the conceptual framework is not only useful as an analytical tool, but may also assist efforts in conflict prevention and management. - Reyntjens, Filip. "Path dependence and critical junctures: three decades of interstate conflict in the African great lakes region." Conflict, Security & Development (2020): 1-16.
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ABSTRACT
The phenomenon of governance by insurgents characterises many contexts of civil war and influences political, security, social, and economic dynamics in the original conflict zone and beyond. Therefore, understanding how different insurgents govern seems of crucial importance. However, in the existing literature, no typology has been advanced that captures the multiple dimensions of rebel governance and allows us to develop detailed and comparable assessments of the different patterns of rule implemented by different rebels. Considering this gap as a limit to the study of insurgent governance, the present paper aims to propose a multi-dimensional typology for investigating how rebels govern. -Marta Furlan, "Understanding Governance by Insurgent Non-State Actors: A Multi-Dimensional Typology." Civil Wars (2020): 1-34.
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ABSTRACT
This research note looks at the radical influencers of Bosnian foreign fighters. This group is important, as the Balkan region has been seen as a spot of jihadist activism and recruitment for the IS and Al-Nusra Front. Previous research on foreign fighters emphasized that a small number of individuals (religious leaders, former combatants, and others) at the local level play a significant role in this recruitment. The influence of such figures results in hotspots of radical activism, which are called “power centers” here. This research note argues that such dynamics are likely to be even more evident in postwar societies due to state weaknesses, which create more power for social actors and inhibit counterterrorism. The paper also analyses the role of leader-led radical “institutions” that have appeared after the Bosnian War. By doing so, it stresses the significance of local radical influencers in the recruitment of Bosnian foreign fighters. The research note shows that radical influencers in postwar radical milieus manage to “institutionalize” their authority by filling the void left by domestic war(s) with life guidance and religious values. The paper provides insights into the social relations, authority and decision-making connected with foreign fighter departures to Syria and Iraq (2012-2016). -Metodieva, Asya. "The Radical Milieu and Radical Influencers of Bosnian Foreign Fighters." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2020): 1-21.
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Publications on Conflict and Terrorism Studies
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