Episódios
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US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, ending off best levels after an uneventful afternoon, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing up 11bps, and 2bps, while the Nasdaq closed down 26bps. Big headline today was October's in-line core CPI print in contrast to some fears for a hotter number. Report improved market-based odds for a 25bp cut in December with Fedwatch noting just an ~18% chance of a pause, down from 41% yesterday. Multiple media outlets projected GOP will retain majority in the House, though several races remain uncalled.
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US equities ended lower in Tuesday trading, though off worst levels. No one specific factor at work, though renewed bond yield backup getting some attention. NFIB small business sentiment ticked up by 2.2 points to 93.7 in October.
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US equities closed higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, hovering around the unchanged mark after a bit of morning strength. As expected, it was a quiet session given the federal holiday, sparse earnings, no economic releases, and quiet Fedspeak – all factors which will ramp up later this week. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance remains higher coming out of last week's election.
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US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq all ended the week at fresh record highs. The Trump election victory sparked a big rally across risk assets. Treasuries sold off sharply following Trump's election victory on inflationary concerns, but ended only slightly weaker on the short end and firmer on the long end on thoughts policy measures might not be enacted as quickly as expected. November FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp cut, as expected, to 4.5-4.75% in a unanimous decision. With 90% of S&P 500 companies now having reported for Q3 EPS growth still pacing ahead of quarter-end expectations.
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US equities were mostly higher in Thursday trading. The FOMC announcement was the big story of the day, with the Fed opting for a 25 basis point cut as expected. . It was fairly quiet elsewhere as some of yesterday's election-related outperformers trim outsized gains.
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Stocks posted a sizable rally as the S&P 500 put in its best session in over two years, sparked by the Trump election victory and a potential for a Red Sweep (House still not yet decided). Today's Treasury auction of 25 billion dollars of 30-year bonds was well received. The FOMC announcement and the Powell press conference is set for Thursday afternoon, with the Fed widely expected to deliver a 25 bp rate cut, while Powell is likely to stress data dependency when it comes to policy decisions going forward.
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US equities were higher in Tuesday trading as stocks ended near best levels. Upside tabbed to latest data that offered softer/no-landing support, with ISM services showing improvements in both employment and inflation metrics. October ISM services beat, highest since Jul-22. New orders decelerated, but employment back in expansion territory and prices index continued to slow.
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US equities were mostly lower and mixed in Monday trading, though stocks finished off worst levels. A very quiet session today as the market waits for some key catalysts this week, notably tomorrow’s US election, a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed, China’s NPC meeting, and 103 more S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. In macro news, factory orders declined largely in line with expectations, down for the fourth time the in last five months in September.
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Major US equity indices were down for the week. Earnings reports dominated the calendar, with some mixed takeaways from the five Mag-7 names on the schedule. The week's big economic report was Friday's nonfarm payrolls release for October, showing only 12K in job gains for the month (and revising down August and September by a combined 112K jobs).
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US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. Today's risk-off atmosphere was largely a function of disappointing Mag 7 earnings, though there was nothing in the results or guidance to really shift the favorable narrative surrounding the AI secular growth theme. On the economic front, initial jobless claims are down again, down 12K week over week to 216K versus consensus 227K.
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US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, selling off after midday and ending near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 22bps, 33bps, and 56bps respectively. Earnings were a major focus today, with more than half of the S&P 500 constituents now having reported; Alphabet, AMD, Caterpillar among notable reporters. Big beat for October ADP private payrolls, printing at 233K vs 108K consensus. Q3 GDP grew at a 2.8% SAAR against forecasts for 2.6%. September pending home sales came in much stronger than expected, rising 7.4% m/m.
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US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading, a bit off best levels. Earnings takeaways were mixed to weaker with DHI-US results/guidance highlighting the lagged effects of the Fed's pivot. Today's stronger consumer confidence supportive of the broader soft-/no-landing traction. October consumer confidence well ahead of estimates, biggest jump since Mar-21.
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US equities were higher in a fairly quiet, fairly rangebound Monday trading. The recent backup in yields remains the biggest focus. In macro news, October’s Dallas Fed Index beat with its best reading since April 2022.
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US equities were mostly lower this week. The biggest focus was on another backup in yields, extending this month's sizable jump with the 2Y back above 4%, and 10Y back to July levels (before the Fed cut by 50bp in August). In a busy week of Fedspeak before next week's blackout period ahead of the November FOMC meeting, Fed officials continued to argue that they see further rate cuts ahead, but there are some questions around the pace.
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US equities were mostly higher in Thursday trading as the S&P posted its first gain in four sessions. Earnings dominated the headlines with takeaways mixed and increased talk about a higher bar following the recent run. On today's economic calendar, initial claims came in well below consensus after some recent weather-related noise.
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US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 96bps, 92bps, and 160bps respectively. Backup in yields biggest near-term headwind, reflecting soft/no-landing optimism but also rising re-inflationary fears, with 10Y breakevens at their highest level since June. Fed's latest Beige Book noted economic activity little changed since September. Existing home sales for September posted a surprise decline, coming in below expectations at the slowest pace in 14 years.
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US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading as stocks ended little changed though off worst levels. Rate stabilization has provided some cushion from risk off tone that spilled over to this morning. Earnings today a mixed bag with some scrutiny on select cyclical and rate-sensitive names.
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US equities finished lower in uneventful Monday trading. This week starts the peak of Q3 earnings with 112 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. Nothing on the economic calendar today and a slow data week ahead, though a bit of Fedspeak.
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Major US equity indices were higher this week, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all up for the sixth consecutive week (and the S&P closing at another fresh record high on Friday). The soft-/no-landing narrative continued to gain support from cooperative economic releases, particularly Thursday's robust September retail sales report which saw healthy m/m growth in control-group sales. Elsewhere, Q3 earnings results have continued to point toward growth, with the blended EPS y/y growth rate for S&P constituents currently at 3.4% (with ~14% of index members now having reported).
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US equities finished narrowly mixed in Thursday trading. Growth and momentum were providing leadership in today's trading, with the AI secular growth theme the big focus following Taiwan Semiconductor earnings and guidance, pushing semis to the best day in three weeks. September headline retail sales came in a bit higher than expected, up 0.4% vs Street consensus of 0.3%.
