Episódios
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Some Labour politicians have been calling for a wealth tax, claiming a 2% tax could raise £24bn. Where are the numbers from and do they add up?
A listener asked why housing in the UK is the oldest in Europe. We explain what’s going on.
The Office for National Statistics has changed how it measures the value of pensions and knocked £2 trillion off its estimates of wealth. Not everyone thinks it was a good change. We find out why.
And Lent is here, but how long is the Christian fasting period? We look at the history of a very flexible 40 days.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and the world around us.
Presenter: Tim HarfordReporter: Lizzy McNeillProducers: Nathan Gower and Charlotte McDonaldSeries producer: Tom CollsProduction co-ordinator: Gemma AshmanSound mix: Gareth JonesEditor: Richard Vadon
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On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth. Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.
The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero.
Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Presenter: Tim HarfordProducer: Lizzy McNeillSeries producer: Tom CollsProduction co-ordinator: Brenda BrownSound Mix: Hal HainesEditor: Richard Vadon
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More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend?
Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does?
One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim HarfordReporter: Lizzy McNeillProducer: Nathan GowerSeries producers: Charlotte McDonald and Tom CollsProduction co-ordinator: Brenda BrownSound mix: James BeardEditor: Richard Vadon
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In March 2020, the covid pandemic forced the UK into lockdown. Schools closed, universities went online and the economy shut down.
It slowly became clear that young people were not falling victim to the virus in significant numbers - they made up a fraction of a percent of the overall death toll.
But their lives were radically changed - most spending these formative ages stuck at home as the pandemic raged. Politicians and academics worried about the long term impact this would have on their chances in life.
Five years on, Tim Harford delves into the data to try to work out what we can say with confidence about the effect of the lockdown on the children and young adults who lived through it.
On questions of education levels, job prospects and mental health, what story does the best evidence show us?
Presenter: Tim HarfordProducer: Tom CollsProduction co-ordinator: Brenda BrownSound mix: Nigel AppletonEditor: Richard Vadon
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You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations.
If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa.
Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority.
However, when you look at the data behind the claims the whole thing falls apart. We dive into the methods behind the map and ask whether it’s even possible to accurately put a number on intelligence. Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Lizzy McNeillSeries Producer: Tom CollsEditor: Richard VadonStudio Manager: James BeardProduction Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown
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It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footprint than British grown apples. Plus - did VAT on private schools really boost the rate of inflation, or was that just a media concoction?
Presenter: Tim HarfordSeries Producer: Charlotte McDonaldProducers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower and Josh McMinnSound Mix: Rod FarquharEditor: Richard VadonProduction Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown
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As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground?
Presenter: Tim HarfordProducer and Editor: Richard VadonStudio Manager: James BeardProduction Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
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Has the US really sent Ukraine $350 billion for its war effort? Is a $500billion cut of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals a good deal? How will the UK fund the governments ambitions to raise defence spending to 3%? But most important of all - how many muscles are in an elephant’s trunk?
Presenter: Tim HarfordSeries Producer: Charlotte McDonaldReporter: Lizzy McNeillProducers: Nathan Gower and Josh McMinnSound Mix: James BeardEditor: Richard VadonProduction Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown
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As negotiations to end the Ukraine war rumble on, Donald Trump seems equally interested in talking about the past, repeatedly claiming that the US has given much more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, and that Europe’s aid took the form of a loan that they’ll be getting back.
Emmanuel Macron has publicly contradicted the US President - so who’s correct?
Nathan Gower speaks to Taro Nishikawa, project lead at the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker to get the true picture.
Presenter / Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard
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Last week Elon Musk revealed that he had been through the Social Security Agencies database and found millions of people aged over 100.
The vast majority of these people are dead, but their accounts and social security numbers remain live.
Elon claimed that he had uncovered ‘the biggest fraud ever’ prompting some news outlets to speculate that billions of dollars might be being paid to these dead people every month.
But is it true? We look at whether this is new information and what the data actually tells us.
Produced and presented by: Lizzy McNeillSeries producer: Tom CollsEditor: Richard VadonProduction Co-ordinator: Brenda BrownSound Mix: James Beard
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On the 25th January, the US Press Secretary announced that in their bid to stop ‘fraud’ and waste DOGE had cancelled $50 million worth of condoms being sent to Gaza by the United States Agency for International Development (aka USAID).
President Trump later repeated this claim, adding on that Hamas were using said condoms to make bombs to fire at Israel.
On the 7th of February the USAID website was taken down.
We fact check this claim and find out how much of the US budget was spent on USAID programmes.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Lizzy McNeillResearch: Josh McMinnProduction Co-ordinator: Brenda BrownSound Mix: David CracklesEditor: Richard Vadon
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Babies born in the US to Black Hispanic or African American mothers are more likely to die than any other ethnic group in America.
That is a fact.
But the reason why this happens is unclear. In 2020 a study came out that claimed that black babies attended by white doctors after birth were twice as likely to die than white babies attended by white doctors.
People jumped to the conclusion that the race of the doctor was leading to the different outcomes. But when you delve into the numbers, a very different picture starts to emerge.
Presenter: Lizzy McNeillSeries producer: Tom CollsProduction coordinator: Brenda BrownSound mix: Steve Greenwood Editor: Richard Vadon
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Google claim their latest quantum computer chip is able to process something in five minutes it would take a normal computer 10 septillion years to figure out.
As this is a massive amount longer than the entire history of the known universe, that seems to suggest the chip is extremely powerful.
But when you understand what’s going on, the claim doesn’t seem quite so impressive. Dr Peter Leek, a quantum computer scientist from Oxford University, explains the key context.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Tom CollsProduction co-ordinator: Brenda BrownSound mix: Andrew GarrattEditor: Richard Vadon
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Just before being inaugurated as US president for the second time, Donald Trump launched something called a “meme-coin”. This is a bespoke cryptocurrency token featuring a picture of Donald Trump. A billion of them may eventually be created.
Newspaper headlines claimed that the Trump meme-coin had made the president billions of dollars wealthier. But it is far from clear that this is the case. Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Lizzy McNeillSeries producer: Tom CollsProduction co-ordinator: Brenda BrownSound mix: Mike Etherden Editor: Richard Vadon
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What has the colour of your hair got to do with your capacity to withstand pain?
We investigate the claim, which regularly circulates on social media, that natural redheads are 25% tougher than their brunette peers.
Pain expert Jeff Mogil explains how it all comes down to something called MC1R.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Lizzy McNeillSeries Producer: Tom CollsEditor: Richard VadonProduction Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
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The claim that 79% of asylum seekers in Sweden go on holiday in their home country has been repeated regularly on social media. It’s used to argue that recent refugees are being disingenuous about the danger they face in the country they have fled from. But when you look at the survey the claim is based on, you see the stat in a very different way. We speak to Hjalmar Strid, who ran the survey for polling company Novus, and Tino Sanandaji from Bulletin, the online news site which published it.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Tom CollsProduction co-ordinator: Katie MorrisonSound Mix: Neil ChurchillEditor: Richard Vadon
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We asked and you responded, this edition of ‘numbers of the year’ are from you. our loyal listeners. We scoured the inboxes to find three fascinating numbers that say something about the world we live in now and put them to our experts.Tune if you want to hear about rising global temperatures, what Taylor Swift has in common with 65 years olds and facts about fax (machines).
Contributors: Amanda Maycock, University of LeedsJennifer Dowd, University of Oxford
Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldReporter: Lizzy McNeillProducer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeillSeries Producer: Tom CollsEditor: Richard VadonSound Engineer: Rod Farquhar.
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It’s that time of year again, the time when we ask some of our favourite statistically-inclined people for their numbers of the year. We present them to you - from falling birth rates in India to children saved by vaccines.
Contributors: RukminiS, Data for IndiaProfessor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University, Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducers: Lizzy McNeill and Vicky BakerSeries Producer: Tom CollsEditor: Richard VadonSound Engineer: Donald McDonald and Rod Farquhar
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“Say what you like about Mussolini but he did make the trains run on time.” This phrase is the political equivalent of “every cloud has a silver lining” – but does it have any factual basis? Mussolini’s dictatorship in Italy was full of atrocities, brutal suppression and propaganda. Did it also create a more efficient railway network? We speak to Professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat about the truth of the claim and why the Mussolini regime wanted us to believe it. Presenter: Lizzy McNeillProducer: Lizzy McNeillResearcher: Esme WinterbothamSeries Producer: Tom CollsEditor: Richard VadonSound Master: James BeardProduction Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison.
Image: Benito Mussolini in his train studying maps. (Photo by ullstein picture/ullstein picture via Getty Images)
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Are most Americans barely holding their head above water when it comes to personal finances? That’s what various US politicians and news outlets keep suggesting. They can’t stop using a statistic about people living “paycheck to paycheck”. But what does this really mean?
We go behind the headlines to unpick the numbers. Contributor: Ben Krauss, journalist Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeillSeries Producer: Tom CollsProduction co-ordinator: Katie MorrisonSound Engineer: Andrew MillsEditor: Richard Vadon
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