Episódios

  • Join us for some group therapy! Naomi and Alex welcome back 38Degrees CEO and former Obama campaign staffer Matthew McGregor with some first impressions of Trump's low-energy inauguration speech, his high-energy overflow speech, Melania's get-away-from-me-energy hat and Musk's chemically-enhanced-energy salute.

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    "So much of it was about him. So much of it was about how he's the best and how he's suffered and how he's the victim. Contrast that with 'ask not what your country can do for you'. It was an extraordinarily self-centered inauguration speech."

    "Once he was in the other room, he gave the speech he really wanted to. He wanted to talk about January the 6th. He wanted to open up old wounds. He will never ever let go of the injustice that he perceives happened to him back in 2020.”

    "We should be outraged. We should stay angry. And we should be up for resisting what Donald Trump is going to try to do to America. But there's no point in pretending that he is a novice, an idiot, someone who is deranged. He knows what he's doing."

    “John McCain said it's always darkest just before it goes completely black. I'm glad to be, experiencing the pain, with you both, in a group therapy setting.”

    CALLS TO ACTION
    To find out more about (and donate if in the US) to Planned Parenthood click here.
    To find out more about and help Bloody Good Period click here.
    To find out more about and help Level Up click here.

    Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Naomi and Alex look at the week's news, focussing on Starmer's visit to Poland and Donald Tusk's dream of a "Breturn". Also, the markets have made a remarkable recovery and the media, obsessed with gilt rates until last week, appear not to have noticed - it's almost like there's an agenda there. Plus, TikTok "goes dark" in the US, but has Trump changed his mind?

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    “Tusk is successful where the Remain campaign was not. He makes the emotional appeal. He goes for hearts instead of minds. It’s not a coincidence that he is also the person reversing the trend for ever-further-right governments in former Eastern Bloc countries, by bringing together a broad coalition. He is pointing the way on a lot of this stuff.”

    “Both the UK and the EU need to capitalise on current circumstances and bake in some stuff that is hard to reverse. They don’t know with whom they will be negotiating next time. I think Donald Tusk gets that and has gone out there and shown Starmer some pretty difficult-to-squirm-away-from love.”

    Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Alice Jolly taught at Oxford for 16 years ... until she had the temerity to complain about her pay.

    Sacked from a job she loved, she took the university to court over her employment rights and won a famous victory.

    But what are the broader lessons for the world of academia? In this Quiet Riot special, Naomi Smith talks with Alice, an award-winning writer and academic, about a sector that contributes £265billion to the economy yet where a deeply disturbing number of universities are running at a loss.

    Are neo-liberal managers destroying the heart of Britain's higher education sector by prioritising areas such as property development over teaching?

    ‘When it is very difficult I remind myself that we are fighting for the future of higher education ... it is the basis of our civilisation’

    'I loved Oxford University and the dream of that world’ 


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    Find out more about the University and College Union


    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with SandStone Global.
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  • Alex Andreou, Naomi Smith with special guest Guardian columnist Zoe Williams assess Labour's first 200 days in power, in pretty frank, no-holds-barred conversation. And, as the Trump cabinet confirmation hearing stun Capitol Hill, the gang engage is some preemptive group therapy on how to survive the next four years of Trump.

    Plus 'Wokey Dokey' and 'Grin and Share It'.

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    “There is a real problem with Keir’s cabinet and Keir’s government… He will not let anyone go out and build their own brand, persona, ideas - anything. He won’t let anyone go out and be the person they want to be. And so when you get a situation like Reeves at the mercy of bond markets nobody looks at her and thinks: she’s got this.”

    “Debt markets are a beauty pageant and you don’t want to be the ugliest contestant. What is happening now is not at all like Truss, because at that point everyone else’s bond markets were relatively calm and ours was the only one shooting up. That is a very different situation.”

    “What is this government’s growth theory? I don’t know. Every government has one - it might be bullshit, but they have it. This one’s seems to be a Jack-And-The-Beanstalk theory: ‘I will take my desire for growth to the market and buy a bean and then let’s see what happens.’” 

    GRIN AND SHARE IT
    You can read about the amazing advance in battery technology here.

    CALLS TO ACTION LINKS:
    Zoe's piece about quitting Facebook.
    The petition calling for an independent evaluation of the Cass Review.

    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Naomi and Alex look at the week's news, focussing on the market turmoil and pressure on Reeves, Trump's felony conviction, and Farage under increasing pressure from his own members for - WAIT FOR IT! - being too moderate.

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    “Trump did this before his 2017 inauguration. He is manipulating markets. Causing a volatile period with negative movement. He threatens lots of stuff. He then gets sworn in and tones it down. Everything resets and he comes out and claims: Look at Wall Street. Even in my first week everything is going gangbusters.”

    "An enormous number of [Reform voters] are aspirationally wealthy, golf-playing, what I would call 'red corduroy trouser guy'. They do not like the working classness of a man like Stephen Yaxley-Lennon. They don't want him invading their club. And I think that's true of Farage.”

    “The government needs to pursue a policy of dynamic beneficial alignment with the EU. Most of us do not work for a large corporation that can box and cox around regulatory changes in our largest trading market. Lots of SMEd and sole traders just can't do it.”

    “There are unilateral things that gov’t could be doing right now to boost the economy and the reason it’s not is because it’s chicken. They are letting the perceived political price, of being seen to get closer to the EU, dictate policy choice. It is a discredit to them. These lost months, you ain’t getting them back.”

    Reform UK trying to introduce a bill - the video is here.

    CALL TO ACTION:
    Tell your MP to attend the debate on Youth Mobility.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Alex Andreou talks to top economist Vicky Pryce, to get to the bottom of what is behind market volatility and high gov't borrowing rates, how much of it is inherited, how much of it international, how much down to the gov't, what can be done to fix it, and why it isn't being done.

    Much of it not as you might expect.

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    “The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England missed a trick. The confidence of central banks was impacted quite badly when they were seen to be too slow in moving rates up, so now they’re being a little bit too cautious about moving rates down.”

    “There is a serious issue. Right now in most countries there’s fiscal retrenchment [gov’t measures to reduce debt]. With tight monetary policy too, you’re almost stuck with low growth.”

    USEFUL READING
    Vicky Pryce's blog on inflation is here.
    The FT's round-up of analyst views is here.

    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Alex Andreou, Naomi Smith with special guest Dame Emily Thornberry try to decipher the incoherent tweets of Musk, the incoherent strategy of Badenoch, and the incoherent ramblings of Trump. Plus 'Wokey Dokey' and 'Grin and Share It'.

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    "The idea that they can just play political games on the bodies of these girls, whose lives would have been turned upside down by what happened, to have it all raked over again and again for petty point scoring. The stakes for the victims are very high.”

    “The next few years is going to be all about realignment on the right. Who's going to eat whom? In our current system there's only really space for two big political parties.”

    “I don't really know what's happened to the leadership of the Tory Party. They have so profoundly lost their way.”

    "The one thing we should take very seriously about Donald Trump is that he is completely unpredictable. It's like the whole table has been thrown over and we're picking up the pieces trying to see how to put it back together."

    "The way forward is essentially to work out what are his interests and how to align what's in our interest with it. On Ukraine, Trump doesn't want to be seen as a loser. He wants to win the Nobel Peace prize. We can be there saying, here is a way to do that, just sign your name and have your photo taken."

    GRIN AND SHARE IT
    You can read the story of Bear, the hero dog, on the BBC website.

    CALLS TO ACTION LINKS:
    Find out how to write to your MP here.
    Details of how to contribute to the Foreign Affairs Committee inquiry on Soft Power.

    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Naomi and Alex give their instant reaction to the rapidly spiralling Musk breakdown, Starmer's strong response, the Tory Party's weak response - and Justin Trudeau's resignation.

    "One thing that UK gov't could do straight away, is to move all of its departments and ministries off X. What are they still doing there? What are official gov't accounts still doing on X, while the PM is saying that it is now a site dedicated to disinformation?"

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    Stephen Bush's FT article on calls for an inquiry into grooming gangs.

    Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • In the words of Jon Snow, "winter is coming". Naomi and Alex look at the cold winds blowing in from the East, as Ukraine cuts Europe off its Putin habit, from the West, as Musk goes too far right even for Farage's taste, and from the South, where Suella Braverman can be found admiring the Italy-Turkey border.

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    Statista's monthly figures on boat crossings.

    Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Alex chats to eminent scenario planner, futurologist, and best-selling author Richard Watson about whether there is any point predicting anything in such a volatile environment and finds that scenario planning is not a passive pursuit but about shaping the future. A wide-ranging, illuminating, and inspirational conversation.

    Stay tuned to the end for a goodies giveaway!

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    “I’m not trying to be right about things. I’m trying to help people be less wrong. What I’m trying to do is get people to think and my experience is that most people are putting out fires dealing with quarterly results, annual results, four- or five-year election cycles. There are very few people thinking a generation ahead.”

    “The thing that’s problematic at the moment for a lot of people running organisations is not so much the speed of things, the volatility, or the unexpected events, but the sheer amount of information. I can’t pay attention to everything, so to what do I pay attention? How do I pick?”

    “The one trend organisations should be paying more attention to than anything else is societal ageing and declining fertility. Related to that is ‘the war for talent’. You have a shrinking workforce and moving into a more protectionist era. The fight to attract and retain talent will intensify.” 

    “People tend to think of the future in binary terms. That something new will happen that will kill something that’s been around for a while. But the future is ‘and’ not ‘or’. Look at Ukraine, you have First World War trenches on one level, but also drones and satellites.”

    “I think the future has always been open and we should spend more time thinking what we want it to be, rather than only what it will be.”

    Richard Watson's books can be found here.

    Richard Watson's bookshelf can be found here.

    Richard Watson & Lavie Tidhar's children's book can be found here.


    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod. On Bluesky click here for our Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Alex, Naomi, and Kenny discuss the most important trends of 2024 and what they might augur for 2025. PLUS their most out-there predictions!

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    Alex: “The reaction to progress is not an attempt to stand still, to remain the same, but an active attempt to reverse progress. Progress is not some axiomatic force that will do its thing without our shoulder to the wheel.”

    Naomi: “Big Tech enjoying access will continue and end up crossing every conflict of interest boundary. It’s not going to be about kickbacks or corruption. What we will see is the capture of whole sectors of the economy by Big Tech.”

    Kenny: “The power play between Trump, Musk, and Putin is going to be fascinating to watch in 2025. The world’s three most powerful narcissists feeding off one-another.”

    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod. On Bluesky click here for our Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Attention polling geeks, politics geeks and students of the world ... what can Taylor Swift tell us about the world of politics? How about Beyoncé? And, sticking with a pop theme, how about Waterloo?

    Naomi Smith returns with the second part of her festive Poll The Other One special, this time with Focaldata chief research officer James Kanagasooriam who, as well as being heroically knowledgeable about all things polling, also coined the phrase Red Wall. Yes, *that* Red Wall.

    This episode is absolutely chocka with fascinating insights and, as a bonus, it will equip you to drop the following phrases into your political discourse: race depolarisation; zero-sum thinking; culture-nomics.

    If that's too geeky-sounding, there's also stuff about Waterloo Station's liberal clientele, the Democrats' religious vacuum and Keir Starmer's sandcastle. I know, the sandcastle has hooked you.

    ‘Across the West, no political parties seem to do what they say on the tin.’

    'Zero-sum thinking was a really interesting trend that came out of this year … if I do well, you do badly.‘

    ‘It’s a very powerful tool, optimism.’

    ‘The Lib Dem vote just follows a trainline out of London.’

    ‘Politicians now know, irrespective of their ideology, that at the end of their four or five years they have to have grown the economy.’

    Show Notes

    Subscribe to James's splendid Substack, The Political Whiteboard

    Check out Foundations: Why Britain Has Stagnated, a recent paper co-authored by Works In Progress founder Ben Southwood

    Want more Quiet Riot? Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Bluesky starter pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com
    .
    ***If you can afford to, please sponsor us at ko-fi.com/quietriotpod ... it means a lot to us :-) ***

    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

  • LOBBY JOURNALISTS DO BATTLE FOR THE QUIZ CHAMPION CROWN. Quizmaster Naomi grills The Guardian's Zoe Williams, The Times' Caroline Wheeler, Politics Home's Adam Payne, Conservative Home's Henry Hill, and award-winning Welsh politics guru, Will Hayward. And they also share their political moment of the year.

    Which one will triumph and who will disgrace themselves?

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    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Alex Andreou and Naomi Smith welcome two very special guests - their best friends Nigel Smith and Nigella Lawson. Recorded with a special live audience of many of our previous guests, in this PART II we look forward to 2025, take questions from the audience, and - of course - talk all about FOOD!!!


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    “If you hurry the cooking of an onion, all is lost.”

    “I would win Ready, Steady, Cook. I would be very good at that.”

    “I don’t like gadgets that lock you out of the cooking process.”

    “Whenever there is a new fashionable ingredient, I tend to feel sorry about the old ones. So, I pivot to carrots.” 

    “Channelling Alex’s radical optimism, where are you all going to find joy in the next year?

    Wherever we bloody well can!"

    "Joy is in the small things. The way the light falls in through a curtain. Or having a vodka-martini so cold it hurts. Or the perfectly constructed sentence in a book you’re reading. I don’t know you can start worrying about where it should best come from.” 

    “The connections we build with people is the thing we really build our lives from. It starts with the personal. That’s how we make a better future.”

    “The small unexpected kindnesses give me joy, because they give me hope, that there is something underneath all the darkness, and we just have to find a way to mine it.” 


    CALLS TO ACTION:
    The charity Praxis can be found here.
    Food decorations from Sous Chef.
    Nigella's recipe for Fig and Olive Chutney.


    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod. For Bluesky click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Alex and Naomi talk to a pantheon of special guests to dissect the week's news. Arthur Snell on the attack on the Magdeburg Christmas Market and a new breed of self-radicalised individual who fits no profile. Ian Dunt on the latest peers elevated to the Lords. Zoe Williams on the backlash over gov't denying compensation to WASPI women. Peter Geoghegan on the first cracks appearing in the Trump/Musk bromance and dark money. A special episode to end the year.

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    Arthur: “A classic example of self-radicalisation. People in a very isolated way online can be drawn into a very personal version of a dangerous ideology. You can end up with people with very bizarre uniquely generated private views.”

    Arthur: “Whilst it’s a slightly bewildering case, it’s a fairly neat illustration of the way that radicalisation has become a profound danger and that you don’t have to have pale skin and ‘Aryan’ looks to be radicalised into far-right ideology.”

    Peter: “Labour’s failure [to proactively regulate money in politics] has put them in this position and they still don’t have a strategy. When the Musk story broke, they briefed that they might cap donations, now that they may do something by 2026, or that they may limit the amount a company can give. This is very piecemeal, very reactive and not being led from the front.”

    Peter: “We have seen time and again how unlimited donations, dirty money and dark money in British politics, has warped the political agenda. Musk unintentionally is illuminating this, shining a great big light onto it. And the public care about this. That’s the most compelling reason to act, rather than party political ramifications.”

    Zoe: “A lot of these plans, like the winter fuel payment withdrawal, are not well formulated. I’m not sure that a blanket ‘no’ to the WASPI women is the right thing to do. At the same time, this government is being treated atrociously by the commentariat. Conservative gov’ts, and the coalition before them, introduced waves of extreme hardship and barely a peep was made about it.”

    Zoe: “I don’t think anything [Labour] do would be enough to restore trust in democracy…  We went from austerity, which was often just performative cruelty, into the fecklessness of Brexit, and then into a pandemic that was defined by corruption. I worry that that did taint the reputation of politics so profoundly, I don’t see how you turn it around.”

    Ian: “We cannot have PM after PM just come in and just cram the place with their cronies… and see the numbers just expand and expand. Even for those of us who are defenders of the Lords, it makes our job impossible, because you cannot support this stuff, you cannot defend the way they are behaving.”

    Ian: “Starmer is the most consistently underestimated politician in my lifetime. People cannot stop looking at him and going ‘he’s so boring’, ‘he’s got no ideas’, ‘he’s bad at politics’, ‘he’s got no connection to the public’. There’s loads to criticise him on, but some of the stuff he’s doing is huge. When you look at planning, labour practices, local gov't, net zero, criminal justice - in 15 years, we will look back on this period as engine room policy change.”

    Ian: “Having a surging Farage - which will be the story of next year, because that is what the press wants the story to be - is poison for the national conversation and will pull us further to the right. But electorally, the basic boring answer is still the correct one: a surging Reform just divides the right.”

    CALLS TO ACTION LINKS:
    Peter's substack Democracy for Sale. It's free and you should subscribe.

    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod. On Bluesky click here for our Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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    Hallmark has pumped out over 800 of these original movies - and I use the term original very loosely. Its countdown to Xmas generates over a third of its entire revenue during this one month. 

    But where do these films have their roots? Are they a new phenomenon or just the modern version of Pride & Prejudice? Are they an anti-capitalist subversion teaching that work and materialism do not equal happiness? Or a MAGA misogynist festival that seeks to humiliate women who have the temerity to seek a life, education, or career outside their home town? 

    Alex compares notes with film critic Linda Marric, to get to the bottom of their enduring, and - given their quality - pretty surprising popularity. 

    GOOD FESTIVE PICKS


    The Holiday



    *batteries not included



    The Family Man



    When Harry Met Sally...



    SO BAD THEY ARE GOOD FESTIVE PICKS

    Harvest Love


    A Law for Christmas



    'Tis The Season to Be Merry


    Christmas at the Holly Hotel


    Sister Swap - City Edition



    Sister Swap - Country Edition



    Hallmark's daring interracial effort: Something from Tiffany's



    Hallmark's first gay starring couple: The Holiday Sitter



    Hallmark's does Hannukah: Love, Lights, Hannukah!





    Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

  • Alex Andreou and Naomi Smith welcome two very special guests - their best friends Nigel Smith and Nigella Lawson - to look back at a momentous year, the moments that have depressed, delighted, and surprised them, the people they have admired and the telly they have binged. As well as an incredible six months of Quiet Riot. Recorded with a special live audience of many of our previous guests!

    Plus the 'Wokiest Dokiest' of 2024.

    PART II is out on Christmas Eve and is all about FOOD!!!

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    “If you're in the outrage business, you've got to take the opportunities where they arise.”

    “European countries seem to be moving in the direction of having three power blocks of roughly equal share basically that can't agree on anything, a kind of universal gridlock.”

    “What happened to Giséle Pelicot does explain why women are quite justifiably anxious about moving around in the world. Yes, you could argue: it's an aberration, this isn't happening in every house. But nevertheless, it is clearly eminently doable for a great number of men.”

    “Only 10% of people under 27 put English mustard in a ham sandwich. And that does make me worry.”

    “I love cheese, but I really draw the line at Tiramisu Wensleydale or an Espresso Martini Wensleydale, can I say? Science has gone too far.”

    CALL TO ACTION:
    You can donate to Duchenne UK here.
    You can register for the cycle run here, to raise money for Duchenne UK.

    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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    Naomi is joined by a Quiet Riot regular, More in Common's Luke Tryl, to discuss polling trends of 2024, what pollsters got right, what they got wrong, the horseshoe theory, the differences between online and telephone polls, why blending focus groups with polling helps improve predictions and what are the indications for next year. Fill yer boots, as they say.

    PLUS the insight you have all been waiting for: what is the most popular Xmas movie respectively for Tory, Labour and Reform voters? Spoiler – The Muppet Christmas Carol is notable by its absence.

    "Polling should always be an art-informed science."

    "The volatility of voters is unprecedented."

    "No one is immune from radicalisation."

    Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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    Naomi and Alex look at yet another two horrible consequences of Brexit - the grift that keeps on taking - in the rather esoteric GPSR that seems to have caught both government and business unaware, as well as the labour shortages that may scupper gov't plans to build 1.5m homes.

    Plus, Laura Kuenssberg gets an award and Steven Bartlett explains his views on medicine. Have we sacrificed accuracy in the service of balance?

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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  • Alex Andreou talks to former diplomat and host of the Behind The Lines podcast, Arthur Snell, to try and construct some order out of the recent chaos in Syria. Who are the good guys? What does this mean for Israel? How exposed is Iran? Is it an opportunity for the Kurds to carve out a state? What is Türkiye's agenda? How does this impact Russia and Putin in both practical and reputational terms? What is next for Assad?

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    “Who can rebuild a country, after a devastating civil war, while also rebuilding its society? That expertise might not exist. But it seems that, if people feel that they have ownership and that they’re not being manipulated by outside forces, there’s a higher chance of this thing going better.”

    “If you look at how HTS ruled in Idlib - which became a considerable mini-state, because a lot of Syrians were displaced there, so it ended up with 4.5m people living there - it was a dictatorship, but not in the business of chemical weapons or cleansing, and more recently they have allowed other minorities to practice their faith and have a measure of rights.”

    “I think we have to accept that the different bits of Syria that are under different groups’ control, are very unlikely to want now suddenly to be under the control of Damascus again - particularly the Kurds who have a pretty organised setup in the Northeast. So, one would hope that the pragmatism we’ve seen so far from HTS and Julani, that has seen him go on this journey from full-blooded islamist to something a bit more open-minded, might extend to saying: Syria doesn’t work very well as a centralised state and actually you need a measure of federalism and particularism.”

    “What happens when people go back home and someone else is living in their house? What happens to teenagers of fourteen and fifteen years of age who have never been to Syria? They were born in refugee camps and that is all they know. How do all those returning integrate back ‘home’?”

    "It is a reminder that Russia doesn't always win. It's an important psychological point for all those who, rightly, fear Russian encroachment, that Russia doesn't always get its way and can be overextended, like everyone else."


    BEHIND THE LINES PODCAST
    The latest episode of Arthur's podcast is here.

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    With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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