Episódios
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Although the Austro-Serb War was now a reality, Britain did not know this until the evening of 28 July. In the meantime, Sir Edward Grey was determined to do all he could to make the mediation scheme work. But not everyone Grey dealt with could be described as sincere, and this included members of his own Cabinet.
Churchill had acted provocatively and pre-emptively in mobilising the fleet and moving it to its battle stations. The Cabinet remained divided over whether to choose a side, but the dilemma was clear. If she declared herself for Russia and France, those powers would be emboldened, and might take greater risks. If, conversely, she declared neutrality, the same effect could be felt in Berlin and Vienna. The solution was thus - still - to keep her options open, but this did not mean British diplomacy slept on 28 July, far from it.
Although the goal was the same, the landscape was rapidly changing under her feet. It was difficult to reconcile Austro-German goals of a limited Serb war with the need Russians felt to defend their Slav brethren. It was at least clear that if the war could be contained, Britain could remain neutral. Yet the space for neutrality was shrinking in line with the escalation in Austro-Serb tensions. By the end of the day, the two foes were at war, and the peaceful hopes of so many had been shattered. The prognosis looked grim, but as had been the case for the last few weeks, Sir Edward Grey had to try.
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For two and a half years, Russia has been waging a full scale war against Ukraine. In response, the West has mobilised an economic coalition of states determined to level sanctions against the aggressor, ideally, to force it to the peace table. Clearly, Russia has not been deterred, but how much of an impact are the sanctions really having? In her book Punishing Putin, Stephanie Baker analyses the reality behind these measures, but also their sheer significance. Indeed, we have entered a new era of Russian relations with the west, and there is no going back.
Thanksss to Stephanie for joining me, please show your support by getting your excellent new book here [Amazon], also available in your favourite book shop!
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After weeks of delay, hesitation and complications, Austria-Hungary finally delivered its declaration of war on Serbia shortly after noon on 28 July 1914.
This, we are often told, represented the beginning of the First World War. But was it as straightforward as that? Contemporaries did not necessarily believe that all hope for peace had been lost. A degree of optimism remained, even in Berlin, where Russia's intervention was perceived possible, but not inevitable.
Now that Austria had made its choice, what would Russia choose to do? As we see, Sazonov was depressed and angry by the Austrian act. In this cynical mood, he took several steps which were designed to ratchet up the pressure on Vienna to hold back, and on Berlin to persuade its ally to do so. And there was no guarantee that Austrian and Serbian forces would even meet on the field.
Serbia had withdrawn its army to the interior, and Habsburg armies were only beginning to be mobilised. Another fortnight was required before the army would be ready, but where should this army go? Thanks to her poor infrastructure and woeful military durability, Austria found she had fewer options than expected once Russia refused to back down. The military and political aspects of her policy were thus intertwined, yet each was as badly understood as the other.
As Germany urged Vienna to give it some indication of what it would do, and Britain pressed for direct Austro-Russian negotiations, the world continued to operate as if yet another crisis in the Balkans would work itself out. Had it not happened before? In fact, this time the crisis was different, and the potential consequences far more catastrophic.
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The 28 July 1914 is best remembered today as the point of no return, as Austria declared war on Serbia.
However, as we will see in this episode, the announcement of this Austro-Serb war, made in the afternoon, and reaching Europe's capitals by the evening, did not ruin the prospects for peace as we might expect. Many contemporaries still believed that it was possible to preserve peace, and foremost among these was Kaiser Wilhelm II. Weeks before, he had given the green light to the blank cheque, but on this morning, Wilhelm finally read Serbia's reply to Austria's ultimatum, and in his view, all reasons for war were now gone.
Wilhelm now proposed a way out of the crisis - Austria would occupy Belgrade, in lieu of Serbia's commitment to dismantle the Pan Serb propaganda and fulfil Austria's remaining demands. This was the Halt in Belgrade, and it was to have a short, but fascinating shelf life, while experiencing several ups and downs before it was eventually killed. In this episode, we trace this idea, and why some in the German government worked hard to push for it, while their colleagues worked to undermine them.
The German policy was confused, but also impatient. German Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg was running out of patience with his Austrian ally, and in his view, Vienna needed to be given a stark warning. She must make amends with Italy, and present her war plan to her ally - did she want to annex Serbia, or not? It was vital that these questions were clarified, as it would make all the difference when dealing with Serbia's protector, Russia. Could Germany stop the ball rolling, or were their efforts, like so many others, hampered by delusions, misinformation, and mistrust? Find out as we begin our coverage of this watershed moment in our history.
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On this otherwise unassuming Monday in 1914, Austria-Hungary was preparing to declare war on Serbia.
The declaration would come the following day, but in the meantime, Germany assisted Austria in keeping up appearances. Those tenacious Brits were at it again, and Grey's mediation proposal still hung in the air. Could a rejection of this scheme worsen the crisis? Perhaps, so it was necessary to tread carefully. The mediation idea would be passed onto Vienna, albeit without much enthusiasm, and Austria could maintain its image as the power in search of justice. But other concerns were rising to the surface.
The Russians were furthering their mobilisation efforts, and looked determined to continue their pressure campaign against Austria. But still, an optimistic view of Russian intervention reigned in Vienna, which stressed that the Tsar would bark but not bite. All evidence to the contrary was ignored, and encouraged but not directed by Berlin, Austria prepared to cut through all this mediation noise, and shatter the expectations of contemporaries with a declaration of war. No one could stop her now.
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In this enormous episode, we examine the largely forgotten story of British efforts to resolve the crisis, and efforts at home to prepare the people for what might come next.
Although Austria's ultimatum had expired two days before, there was still room for diplomacy to work, and Sir Edward Grey was determined to give it his best shot. To preserve peace, Grey pressed his conference scheme to the European courts. When this was rejected, he modified his approach, and accepted other suggestions like bilateral Austro-Russian negotiations. Telegrams pinged back to London, reporting on the deteriorating situation, yet Grey held firm to the principle that Britain should not declare itself. She had more leverage, he believed, if she maintained her 'free hand.'
In his very short address to the Commons, Grey alluded to the conference scheme, and stressed the government's commitment to peace, as well as its freedom of action. Yet, he did not reject claims made by The Times and other papers, which emphasised Britain's ties to its friends, and the duty this entailed. He also remained quiet about the elephant in the room - Britain was tied to France, and military discussions between them had secretly bound Britain to French war calculations. This Grey wisely kept quiet from the Cabinet, as a split was inevitable if he did not tread lightly.
This is exactly the kind of deep dive analysis which this podcast is all about, and I can only thank you so much for making it possible!
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If Austria-Hungary wanted the war with Serbia, it would have to get its skates on. Europe was eagerly looking for any sign of a way out, even if Austria was not.
The British were central in pressing the need for mediation, but they knew that Germany's inclusion was key if it was to work. The Germans, it was reported, anticipated British neutrality. This was wrong, it was insisted, because Britain would tend to her interests. Even more, Britain had kept its fleet, mobilised through annual manoeuvres, intact as the crisis escalated. Did this not prove Britain's seriousness?
Whether Britain was sincere or not, it mattered less than what Austria did. By now it was widely known that Austrian armies were not marching, and if the rumours were true, and she could not march until 12 August, then that gave plenty of time for things to blow over. But before Sir Edward Grey could put the finishing touches on another Balkan conference, he first had to ensure German support, and this was proving impossible to obtain.
The German imperative of supporting Vienna in its swift Serbian war remained in play, even if Austria had not moved. Mediation would threaten this goal, and it had to be countered. Besides, reports from Russia were beginning to make Berlin nervous. Increased military preparations could ruin Germany's own strategic plans, so more information was vital. Just then it was learned that the Kaiser and his Chancellor were returning to Berlin.
Could they persuade Austria to move? If not, could they persuade her statesmen to participate in diplomatic efforts? Berlin did not want a conference, but neither she nor Austria wanted war with Russia either. Could Russia not stay in her lane and ignore the attack on Serbia, especially after all the Serbs had done? The fatalist Austrian view asserted that whatever the consequences, Serbia had to be destroyed. It might be disastrous for the Habsburgs, but as the saying went, it was better to endure an end in horror, than a horror without end.
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It's been a long time coming! The Age of Bismarck is finally here after so many years of planning, teasing, and dreaming. Tune in here to see how we plan to do it, and why you should be excited! Whether you're a long time history friend or just stopping by, Otto von Bismarck's life and times, and the age in which he lived, deserves your attention. The Iron Chancellor would accept nothing less!
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Thanksss so much to all of you that made this possible.
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The ultimatum had expired, and yet somehow, Austria had not declared war on Serbia. What was going on?
Well, despite pushing the crisis forward with reckless abandon, the Austrian chief of staff Conrad von Hotzendorff now seemed awake to the dangers facing the country. The army would not be ready for war until 12 August, he said. This was a shock to the Germans, who continued to expect a lightning Austrian strike at Belgrade. But it did give the diplomats time to do their work.
From Britain, Sir Edward Grey believed a mediation scheme involving four uninvolved powers was the answer. He encouraged Berlin to push this idea, and the Germans did so, but only reluctantly, and out of fear of offending Britain if they did not. But the question of Russia was arguably the most important of all, and the Tsar was apparently now willing to exercise his military muscle by approving the period preparatory to war, and the mobilisation of key military districts.
This should have shown Austria that Russian intervention was highly likely, yet her statesmen continued to forge ahead. They had lost the diplomatic initiative, and they had failed to present Europe with a fait accompli. Instead, the sluggish, conditional Austrian response seemed ideally suited to diplomatic mediation. But would Austria take the easy way out? Incredibly, from Vienna, the answer was still no.
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Here we address the question - now that Austria's ultimatum to Serbia had expired, and the Austrians had evacuated Belgrade, what was Russia going to do about it?
The answer is as complicated as it is controversial. Russia's response revolved around military preparations; specifically, those preparations which would make the mobilisation of its enormous army across such a vast empire easier to carry out. These measures were called the Period Preparatory to War, and on this day, these measures were officially approved by the Tsar and his Ministers. What did this mean? Was the Period Preparatory to War simply mobilisation under a different name, or was it a reasonable response to the crisis, which merely granted Russia more diplomatic leeway?
Unsurprisingly, the answer is contentious. To some, this was the key aggravating factor which transformed the July Crisis from a regional dispute into the world war it became. To others, Russia's preparations may have been inflammatory, but they were not necessarily sinister. Should we take these measures as proof of Russia's intention to orchestrate a world war on favourable terms to themselves? Perhaps we should not go so far, but one thing is certain, by the end of the day, a line had been crossed in St Petersburg.
Once more details leaked out, Austria and Germany were bound to take notice. The question then became - would the Central Powers be scared off, or would they up the ante, seeing in Russia's behaviour yet another bluff which had to be called? Could anyone stop this game of chicken? In fact the Russians were not the only actors willing to be economical with the truth. Another was the French ambassador, Paleologue, and the Austrian Foreign Minister, Berchtold, as well as many German officials, determined to have their localised war and firm in the belief that Russia would back down.
In this episode, we wade through this soup of contradictions, poor communications, mistrust and misinformation, to arrive at some worrying conclusions. Whoever we might claim was responsible, Europe was entering the twilight period of peace, whether contemporaries wished to acknowledge it or not.
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By now, everyone was expecting Austria-Hungary to do something once its ultimatum expired later in the day, but what? And could this response be adjusted, and peace be preserved, if only a certain diplomatic finesse was applied?
In Britain, Sir Edward Grey certainly hoped so. The solution, to him, seemed one of mediation, where the four uninvolved powers - Britain, France, Germany and Italy - gathered to arbitrate the Austro-Serb dispute. The question then became, could Germany be brought on side? Many were doubtful. It did not help that the German claim it had known nothing of the ultimatum was highly suspicious. Was it truly believable that Austria had acted entirely alone? This question informed the responses.
In Russia, Sergei Sazonov continued to lead a firmer and more assertive foreign policy, but to what end? As he learned of the British mediation plans, Sazonov did not rule them out, but he also failed to mention that Russia's preliminary military measures were already underway. It was understood that mobilisation was a dangerous risk, which would complicate mediation efforts. The further these measures had gone by the time mediation got its chance, the harder it would be to save the peace. This was why an extension of Austria's 48 hour deadline became briefly popular - this would give everyone sufficient time to act. Unsurprisingly, Vienna opposed this measure, and it scarcely got off the ground before time had run out, and Serbia handed over its reply.
Contrary to contemporary views and the opinions of historians since, the Serbian reply was not designed to placate Austria. It was instead designed to engender sympathy among the Entente. There was no defiant language or accusations, but Belgrade's response did reject core Austrian demands, and denied that they Vienna possessed sufficient evidence to prosecute its case. As the Austrians fully appreciated, the ultimatum was always designed to be unacceptable, but Serbia's 'perfumed' response, rather than a full throated message of defiance, greatly complicated the situation. Indeed, it was one among many complications of the day, as the glacial pace of Austrian policymaking encountered yet more roadblocks. All the while, in the east, Russian soldiers were marching to their destinations. If there was a chance for peace, then this was surely the last chance.
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We return to our narrative on an eventful day in world history. By the end of 24 July, Russia had established its policy towards Austria's ultimatum. But what was this policy, and why did Russia act so differently to crises in the past?
We find Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Sazonov to be central to the events that transpired next. But what did Sazonov want? He authorised the period preparatory to war, and signalled his intention to support Serbia via war, if it came to that. This did not mean Sazonov was a warmonger, but he had not been entirely honest with the Central Powers either. Moderate advice was given to Serbia, and the Austrian and German ambassadors were informed that Russia would not look lightly upon an Austrian attack. Seeing German tentacles curling around any Austrian initiative, Sazonov felt he could not back down if Russia wished to retain her prestige, but what did this mean in practice?
Further afield, Britain was perhaps the sole power capable of offering a neutral space where mediation could take place. But how attractive were Grey's proposals, and were they likely to appeal to Germany? Did British distractions with the Irish Home Rule crisis impact its effectiveness in this regard? It seemed unlikely that London could rely on France. This time around, the French, represented in St Petersburg by Paleologue, maintained that Russia would find its ally loyally by its side for whatever came next. Such assurances were not designed to pull Russia back, because the prevailing belief in Entente circles was that only a policy of firmness could deter the Central Powers from going further.
However, if all the powers clung to a policy of deterrence, and if none considered backing down, what we are left with is a dangerous game of chicken with no off ramps. Since Sazonov believed that it meant war this time, was this proof of his conspiratorial policy, or simply of his realism? Could the Central Powers have done anything to defuse the crisis, or had the assumption of Russia's retreat blinded them to the disaster they now hurtled towards? All these questions and many more will be addressed in the episodes to come, so I hope you enjoy it!
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After a crazy two months, it's time we had a chat.
In this episode we'll be talking about the Age of Bismarck Patreon series, which has been advertised for years, and requested for even longer. We finally have a release date, and I can't wait to welcome you all to Bismarck's world.
We also talk about the July Crisis series, how it's gone for me so far, and why I feel compelled to change things up. We get a bit personal, but I've never been shy about being honest with you, so thanksss for your patience and enthusiasm!
WDF is entering an exciting new phase, but we have to make sure there's a proper balance between Zack's life and Zack's pod-baby, so that we can do justice to the fascinating projects we have in store for you. See you all...soon!
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By late 1912, it appeared the period of Anglo-German detente was over. The Kaiser assembled a War Council, and apparently planned for a war of domination. In fact, appearances were deceptive, and although Britain and Germany's relationship had been damaged, it was still intact. There now emerged a new opportunity to repair it, as the Balkan Wars brought the two disinterested powers together again.
The two powers had already achieved a great deal by pushing the naval race to the side. But other questions were more difficult. Both France and Germany came to terms with the role of Belgium in their war plans, but only Germany viewed its violation as a necessity. This key aspect of German strategy was already locked in, but this proved a grave miscalculation. That said, opinions in Berlin had arrived at more optimistic conclusions by 1914. Britain, it was said, faced an internal crisis over Ireland, and those intractable problems meant opportunities for the Central Powers.
Yet still, the Anglo-German detente continued, with fascinating trends emerging in the British Foreign Office. For so long dominated by anti-German sentiment and fear of Russia, a new generation of officials were graduating to new positions, and they were less sanguine about the Anglo-Russian relationship. A last minute trip by Grey's private secretary to Berlin suggested a new era of cooperation, but this, like so many other plans, fell to pieces once the Archduke fell in Sarajevo. Here we conclude the story of this underrated relationship, and set the scene for what was to come.
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By late 1911, Germany had been embarrassed by the Second Moroccan Crisis, and the Anglo-French Entente had once again rallied. We might have expected Germany to double down on its provocative naval campaign, to increase the pressure on Britain. In fact, what happened instead was the beginning of a period of Anglo-German detente. This was initiated through the Haldane Mission of spring 1912, which sought to exchange restrictions on naval building with political guarantees.
The mission was not a success, but it did terrify the French, who worked to consolidate their agreements with Britain on the seas, with dramatic consequences. In this tug of war for Britain's friendship, though, her officials were far less free than they may have assumed. A strong current of anti-German sentiment had become entrenched in London, and it would take braver steps to reserve this trend. Could they do so, and snatch peace from the jaws of conflict? Join me here as we continue our look at Anglo-German relations on the eve of war.
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Everyone knows the story of Britain and Germany before 1914. Or at least, they think they do.
Anglo-German relations following the Russo-Japanese War seemed bound to enter a period of hostility, enabled by the naval race which forced London to invest heavily in production and innovation, and produced the dreadnought as an unforeseen consequence. But this race to outbuild the other in warship construction did not lead automatically to the events of 1914. Indeed, many possibilities existed for the two rivals to patch things up.
This was what the French truly feared, but as they prepared for a second showdown with Berlin in Morocco, the British appeared to stand by them. Was the British Cabinet entirely convinced that Germany was its enemy? Many thought so, but again, matters were not so clear cut. Even Kaiser Wilhelm's disastrous record in PR could not guarantee that these two nations, tied together by so many dynastic, religious, traditional and economic threads, would face each other on opposite sides of the battlefield.
In this first part of our trilogy looking at Anglo-German relations, we set the scene and assess some key moments when Germany became the bogeyman of Britain. Yet even as the naval race became a naval scare, and even as Britain secretly planned for an Anglo-French defence, nothing was yet set in stone. The years that immediately preceded the war were vital for the next phase in the relationship - detente.
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Austria-Hungary finally delivered its ultimatum to Serbia nearly four weeks after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand.
The journey had been incredibly slow, and the outcome was nothing like the fait accompli its statesmen had originally envisioned, but Austria had officially taken the bold step towards war. What did this infamous ultimatum contain? Did it leave any possibility for Serbia to accept it with some dignity? One point in particular - the participation by Austrian officials in a Serbian investigation - was bound to be unacceptable in Belgrade. Accompanied by a 48 hour deadline, the ultimatum hit the disparate Serb government, then preparing for elections, like a bomb. All was seemingly going according to plan. Now all Austria had to do was wait for its bombshell to settle in Belgrade. As for Russia, surely the Tsar would not intervene to help regicides, right? RIGHT?!
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On 20 July, the French President, Premier, and other statesmen docked at Kronstadt, aboard the fittingly named France.
It began a tremendous spectacle of Franco-Russian cooperation, just as rumours were swirling of Austria's nefarious intentions. The allies could not know for sure what Vienna was planning, but they could send some strongly worded warnings. As the French President attempted to put steel into his allies, his Premier suffered something akin to a breakdown. Perhaps Rene Viviani was anxious about domestic politics, or perhaps the pacifist Premier was beginning to realise that a great war was more likely. Either way, once they returned to the sea, French policy would be in the hands of Maurice Paleologue, the French ambassador, and it was hard to see him as anything other than a hawk.
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As the French sailed for St Petersburg, the Austro-Hungarian government gathered in Vienna for a meeting of historic importance.
It was here on 19 July 1914 that the infamous ultimatum to Serbia was finalised, but also the question of what kind of war Austria expected to fight. Shockingly, the question of Russian intervention barely registered. The tunnel vision was laser focused on Belgrade, and now that everyone was on the same page, and the pieces in place, nothing could stop Austria-Hungary putting the finishing touches on the most fatalistic policy imaginable. Their decision to move against Serbia was by now an open secret, but amidst the rumour and whisper, the most important step yet towards war had been taken, and this was to take the whole world by surprise.
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As the French President and Premier made their way to Russia, on board the France, they tried their best to keep up to date with what was happening outsides the confines of their vessel. Troubling rumours were not hard to come by, but they could not be wholly ignored. The Central Powers kept up a front of ignorance, even luring Sazonov into a false sense of security. Here we see how the allies reacted to the suspicious news, and how close their intelligence sources came to unearthing the truth. Even though they could not quite put their finger on it, Franco-Russian solidarity was the one constant they could feel confident in.
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