Эпизоды
-
This week, Nick chats to Nigel Ho, owner of and mortgage advisor at Agile Financial Services in Christchurch.
Nigel has a long and successful career in the financial services industry with a unique experience in helping new migrants understand their financial situation, especially how it applies to the possibility of buying a home in NZ.Nigel's recent interactions also include with Mum & Dad investors keen to test their ability to buy an investment property and Nick also asks about the potential impacts of the removal of the first home buyer grants.
Nigel is a proud, parochial Cantabrian who knows his stuff, providing insight into the most important topics of conversations with clients which includes considerations of where to next for interest rates.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released GDP data for Q1.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
Пропущенные эпизоды?
-
More property market data this week and with it more evidence of the stuttering recovery, to the point where the old 'dead cat bounce' conversation has reared its head.
The latest CoreLogic Mapping the Market interactive report showing 221 of the 938 suburbs experiencing a drop in property values of at least 1%, including ten which fell by at least 5% over the three months to June.
In other data releases from last week, net migration is growing but the rate of growth is slowing - particularly due to Kiwi leaving our shores. Aligning to the theme of slower growth, rental prices also follow the trend, and there'll be plenty of eyes on this week's GDP release for Q1 to see how the broader economy has performed.
There's also RBNZ data about the fixed rate loan tenure people are choosing - why are people staying at the shorter end and what could it mean?
Keep an eye out for the monthly chart pack and monthly video, both out this week.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
With no external data releases to consume and interpret, this week it's all about CoreLogic data. Lead by the CoreLogic House Price Index for May, Nick and Kelvin discuss the results, in particular the recent decline in Auckland property values.
Given the chance to go a bit deeper into the results, market drivers like listings, construction and buyer activity - thanks to Buyer Classification data for May - all help to paint the picture of what's driving (or not driving) the market right now and what could be in store for the rest of this year.
Add in comparisons in value to the recent peak, the even-more-recent-trough and pre-COVID and you've got a statistics bonanza!
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
This audio is the recording of an in-person event, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association titled "The Elephant in the Housing Room: What the Experts See When the Rest of Us Aren't Looking".
Moderated by Nick Goodall, Head of Research at CoreLogic NZ, featuring a panel of Opteon MD, Richard Vaughan, Chief Executive of the Property Council, Leonie Freeman and Chief Economist at CoreLogic NZ, Kelvin Davidson.
This covers a number of topics that haven't generally got as much coverage as they deserve, such as the impacts of climate change on housing, the opportunity of build-to-rent, the difficulties of infrastructure investment and the generational changes which will have an influence over the next few decades.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
This week there's a lot of chat about lending. Following the RBNZ confirming the framework and timing of the debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions, coming 1 July, Kelvin gives and overview of the details as well as potential implications.
Showing off his Nostradamus qualities this came hot on the heels of his own analysis of the latest lending stats in his 10 things to know about the mortgage market right now article.
There's also a bit of chat about the Government's Budget 2024, though in truth it was pretty uneventful when it comes to housing implications - tax cuts and their potential impact on inflation being the main topic of conversation.
Elsewhere there was filled jobs data, business confidence survey results and a bit of a quirk in the latest building consent figures.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
This week, Nick chats to Aaron Cooke, adviser from the award winning Loan Market Highland Park Office.
Aaron is a passionate and articulate advisor with his finger on the pulse of all things property.
Today's discussion covers a myriad of topics - honing in on first home buyer mentality and behaviour, the impact of the 'transaction chain' slowing down activity, the state of the new build market and some great detail on the Council buy-out process following the flooding events of yester-year.
All the topical influences are covered too - from the Reserve Bank's DTIs, to the removal of first home buyer grants and the market shift in favour of finance-qualified buyers.
Plenty to chew over and as per usual we're always keen on your feedback so please get in touch.
Give Aaron a google
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
After a round up of the MPS and removal of first home buyer grants, as first covered in last week's reactionary pod, Nick and Kelvin discuss the potential re-emergence of movers (thanks to the monthly chart pack).
It's definitely too early to call it a trend just yet, but the settings are there for those that would have liked to have moved in the past few years to now get out and do it (affordability calculations pending!).
Kelvin also reports on consumers being a little 'less unhappy', but importantly feeling the easing of price pressures, while the latest RBNZ lending data is the topic of conversation for Kelvin's Property Market Pulse this week.
Looking ahead plenty of focus will be on the Government budget (2pm Thursday) though we don't think there'll be much new for the housing market that hasn't already been released (FHB grants, bright-line, interest deductibility).
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
It's been a busy day for property news, and in this shorter, reactionary episode, Nick and Kelvin first discuss the Reserve Bank's tough-talking monetary policy statement, then quickly cover off the announcement that first home grants have been canned.
In a nutshell, inflation is still a problem, and OCR cuts seem off the table until 2025 - meaning 'higher for longer' mortgage rates too.
Regarding first home grants, the decision will be disappointing for some would-be first home buyers (FHBs), but there are still lots of other factors in their favour, and the market still looks generally positive in the next little while for FHBs.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
Still pretty fresh from the incredible game, but disappointing result, from the Phoenix on the weekend, Nick gets it all off his chest early to then refocus ahead of a big week for the property market with the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday.
It comes as the range of economic data recently released is a bit mixed. Migration is slowing, but still high, rental growth is also slowing but the economy is showing further signs of resilience.
From a property market perspective - most recent data has been decidedly weak - particularly the HPI from REINZ, causing a rethink to Nick's 2024 expectation and consideration of just how underwhelming 2024 could actually be.
The full Pain & Gain report for Q1 is available on the CoreLogic website and the monthly chart pack will be up soon, as will the monthly video on the Youtube channel.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
This week we check back to see what first home buyers have been up to, including detailing our Q1 First Home Buyer Report and April's buyer classification data.
Kelvin also details the stats of how long borrowers are fixing for, showing the short term is still favoured, though borrowers should definitely do some forward projections of what they're expecting or hoping for when the rate comes up next.
Then, it's a look ahead to busy week ahead, which includes a special live podcast event, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association on Tuesday 14 May. Use the code NICKANDKEL to get your free tickets.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
After the short reactionary pod for both the RBNZ Financial Stability Review (FSR), which was pretty stock-standard, and the Q1 labour market stats - which were a little more interesting, this week's pod is shorter than it otherwise would have been.
First topic of conversation is the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data, which provided further more compelling evidence of a struggling housing market, particularly in Auckland (to Nick's surprise).
With more time to digest the labour market stats, Nick then states the potential impact it might have on the OCR later in the year before Kelvin rounds up the underwhelming business confidence survey insights and building consents data.
And what of Capital Economics' prediction for the Cash Rate in Aussie to see another lift this month? If true what does it say for the RBNZ's approach to "higher, sooner, faster and for longer", when it comes to the OCR here in NZ?
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
Hot off the press, Nick and (a travelling) Kelvin catch up to quickly give their take on the just-released Financial Stability Report (FSR) from the Reserve Bank and official Labour Market stats for Q1 2024 from Stats NZ.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
One for the hopeful first home buyers
In this guest special, Nick speaks to Geri Fraser and Heiko Jonkers from Westpac. Geri is the Product lead for Housing and Heiko the Social and Affordable Housing Guru!The main topics of interest discuss are the shared equity and leasehold options which are often misunderstood or simply not known about. Listen in to hear about what these options are and how Westpac have dedicated considerable commitment to ensure more New Zealanders can take that first step into the housing market.
This includes understanding the international experiences and lessons learned to bring unique opportunities to life and how local councils, Government agencies and Iwi provide support for those prospective buyers to make their first purchase a reality.
As always the key is to speak to someone in the know and the Westpac first home loans page is a great start with plenty of passionate mobile mortgage managers keen to pass on their knowledge and help navigate what is so often a daunting process and huge life decision.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
There’s always plenty to talk about in the property market, but this week’s discussion basically sets the scene for a big week of data and announcements which could potentially mean a meaty pod next Monday!
The guys start by discussing the latest Buyer Classification data, which showed that first home buyers (FHBs) remained a key presence in March, and that also ties in to the latest mortgage lending figures from the Reserve Bank. Low deposit lending remains relatively restricted – certainly well under the maximum speed limits – but FHBs are still making good use of the system.
Attention then turns to the next few days …. CoreLogic House Price Index for April set to go public on Wednesday, just before the Financial Stability Report at 9am the same day, and the Q1 labour market figures at 10:45. Could the FSR finally detail the rules for debt to income ratio caps? On the labour market, the unemployment rate has probably risen further in Q1, but it might be about more labour supply, rather than mass job losses.
There's some great stuff in this week's episode, but also brace yourselves for a lot to talk about next week!
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
Despite last week's well-received reactionary pod to the latest CPI inflation data, Nick and Kelvin can't help but dig a bit deeper into the data to get a steer on where things, in particular the OCR, are going.
Other topics this week include the CoreLogic monthly chart pack, which focussed on borrowers preference to fix their mortgages short as well as the patchy nature of this recovery.
That patchiness, and arguably weakness was backed up by the release of the REINZ index and sales tracking.
On the flip side of all the negativity, Kelvin reports that early calcs from the NZAC indicate we may have re-exited the recession, but we all know high net migration (new data on that front too) has a large part to play in that too.
Lastly, there's a mention of the CCCFA announcement - not much detail to analyse and even less impact likely, due to high interest rates being the key constraint on funding lines right now.
Check out the monthly video and Kelvin's appearance on Tova O'Brien's Stuff podcast.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
After quickly passing over the latest OCR decision from the RBNZ and one more construction release to add to last week's construction heavy chat, Nick and Kelvin delve into the current and future rental market.
There's rental price change to discuss, the reversal of some tenancy laws and the latest buyer classification data to assist.
Add in a bit on the economy and inflation ahead of the Q1 CPI data out this week and you've got a comprehensive review of the market. All in less than 40 mins.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
The dominant theme this week is construction – from the Cordell Construction Cost Index showing subdued cost growth to start 2024, through to new dwelling consents in February (still falling), to Stats NZ’s experimental dataset looking at completion timeframes and the number of code compliance certificates issued (dwelling completions) – we have it all!
Not only that, but the Government also announced its intention to allow more imported building products to be used in NZ dwellings, with the aim of controlling cost pressures.
The guys also cover off last week’s CoreLogic House Price Index for March, and filled jobs data for February – both releases were a little mixed.
It’s another busy one this week too, with more mortgage lending data due, along with CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures and Stats NZ rent figures for March. The Reserve Bank will top it off with another cash rate decision on Wednesday, which is likely to be no change at 5.5%.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
-
Coming to you on Easter Monday, Nick and Kelvin catch up to discuss the week that was in the property market. Starting off with Kelvin's latest article, analysing the new build premium (using the CoreLogic Market Trends dataset).
In macro-economic news, Kelvin rounds up the latest lending data from the RBNZ, including the flow of loans and state of terms left on total stock. There's also consumer and business confidence survey data to digest, which was likely affected by confirmation of the recession, proving we all pay attention to the media headlines.
Plus, what was up with the RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr's media appearance, seemingly paving the way for rate cuts?
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
- Показать больше