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In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Trump's odds of victory. For the last few weeks, according to futures markets, Trump's odds of beating Biden have been in steep decline. Trump still faces steep odds. But last week he seemed to be making a comeback. Biden's advantage has eased from 23% down to 18%. While the media fiercely criticized his 4th of July speech, his patriotic take on America's past presidents and defense of statues at Mount Rushmore most likely left a good impression on most who listened.
Economic indicators start to show improvement. ISM released its US June PMIs, showing growth in all sectors. Manufacturing came in at 52.6, beating expectations of 49.6. Non-manufacturing came in at 57.1, crushing expectations of 50.1. Unemployment for June declined to 11.1% from 13.3% in May. For China in June, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.2 and the services PMI was 58.4.
US and UK respond to Hong Kong security law. Last week China passed the controversial Hong Kong Security Act. The US Congress responded by passing legislation that would penalize foreign banks that do business with Chinese officials who undermine Hong Kong's autonomy. The bill was passed with unanimous consent by the House and Senate, and will most likely be signed by Trump. The UK has responded to China by announcing a pathway to UK citizenship for the 3 million Hong Kong residents.
Edouard Philippe resigns as Prime Minister. France's Prime Minister resigned on Friday as Macron attempts to shake up his cabinet. With growing unpopularity, Macron is trying to restart his government before the 2022 election.
Ethiopia threatens Egypt's water supply. Ethiopia is planning to complete it colossal hydropower dam on the Blue Nile. Egypt, downriver from the dam, relies almost exclusively on the Nile for freshwater. If Ethiopia starts filling the dam is built without an agreement between the countries, Egypt has threatened to bomb it.
COVID-19 sets back Americans' plans to retire. According to a new report, Millennials are more than twice as likely as Gen Xers or Boomers to have withdrawn (or plan to withdraw) money from their retirement savings due to the pandemic. But no generation reports feeling very financially secure: The median Millennial has only $23K in retirement savings. Even the median Xer has only $64K in retirement savings.
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe. -
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we talk about the hope for a vaccine. On Monday, markets rose with the news of positive results from the latest Moderna study. While the study was technicality a phase 1 trial, testing if the drug is safe for human consumption, they also did preliminary tests on its effectiveness. Of the 8 patients tested, all showed levels of antibodies equal to or above those of someone who has recovered from COVID19. While RNA vaccines are extremely promising, there is still debate if they will ultimately create immunity.
The House passed a $3 Trillion COVID bill. While the House of Representatives passed a comprehensive bill for COVID relief, its survival is all bet dead in the Republican-controlled Senate. As the extra $600 bonus to unemployment ends on July 31, there will surely be a showdown on the extension or ending of the generous benefits.
Economic indicators continued to be bleak. In the US, industrial production MoM came in at -11.2% for April, marking the index's largest drop in its 101-year history. Retail sales came in at -16.4% for April, with clothing taking the biggest hit at -78.8%. For China, industrial production YoY came in at +3.9% for April. The increase is most likely do to catching up on backlogs as Chinese retail came in at -7.5% for April. Japan had its second consecutive Q of contraction, confirming our belief from Nov that Japan is in a recession.
Brexit talks resume. The UK and the EU have until the end of June to decide if they will extend negotiations past 2020. You read that right; it's a deadline for a deadline. Johnson has said in the past he does not want to extend talks, and COVID could act as an accelerator to finish the deal.
Conspiracy thinking on the rise. In today's politics, conspiracies like QAnon and a new world order has gripped the internet. The believers of such theories tend to be conservative, evangelical, male, and between 30-60 years old. Gen X is especially susceptible to these theories, having never trusted the government and growing up a healthy diet of the X-Files.
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.
