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US stocks and US bond yields are down sharply this morning after Donald Trump accepted the US economy was slowing. Oil prices keep falling on global demand and supply fears. The euro is surging on hopes for bigger European investment spending.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the surprising performance of US shale oil producers and how they might respond to lower prices in a ‘drill, baby, drill’ era.
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Trump’s vacillations on tariffs is unsettling US market and economic confidence, although some think a ‘Trump Put’ will limit any fall in stock prices. Markets now expect more than three Fed rate cuts in 2025. China’s deflation deepens in February.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin takes a closer look at Germany’s plan to step off its ‘fiscal brake’.
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Trump delays tariffs on auto imports for a month and the ECB cuts rates. Australia’s exports to the US jump despite tariff uncertainty. Forecasts for New Zealand’s Q4 GDP may fall, and Malaysia holds rates.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the RBA’s February meeting minutes this week point to only one more rate cut this year.
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Oil hits a six-month low and the US dollar drops 1% on fears trade wars will lower global growth. Private spending helps Australian GDP grow 0.6% in Q4. China sets a new growth target of 5%, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Governor resigns.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at whether the GDP growth Australia experienced at the end of 2024 can be sustained through 2025.
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Global stocks and bond yields fall sharply again after the United States imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, who retaliate with moves of their own. Australia’s Q4 GDP is set for an export boost, while green shoots emerge in New Zealand’s housing market.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines what to expect from China’s National People’s Congress this week.
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US markets fall on fears about Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are due to kick today unless he changes his mind. Australia’s business indicators in Q4 beat expectations, as did a survey of China manufacturing in February. New Zealand exports jump in Q4.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani crunches the numbers on how much inflation might flow through to US consumers from Trump’s tariffs.
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Global markets take the White House clash in their stride. Tariff deadlines are more in focus, boosting the US dollar, in particular vs the Canadian dollar. Australian lending growth softens, and New Zealand consumer confidence remains subdued.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell analyses how New Zealand’s housing market has started 2025.
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The US dollar jumps after Trump says 25% tariffs will hit Canadian and Mexican imports from next Tuesday. New Zealand business confidence nudges up as interest rates fall, and weaker Australian capital expenditure may lower Q4 GDP forecasts.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at how much the RBA’s rate cut last week might feed through to Australia’s housing market this year.
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The US dollar stabilises with US bond yields after a surprise drop. Australian inflation is thrown around as electricity rebates roll off, while construction work shows hints of weakness. And Thailand cuts rates unexpectedly, with more cuts likely to come.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s International Economist Kishti Sen considers the outlook for Pacific island currencies amid global trade wars.
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Sliding US consumer confidence hammers US Treasury bond yields down to their lowest levels since December. Australia’s January CPI today could give clues on more RBA rate cuts. Australian consumer confidence jumps after the RBA’s cut this month.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the prospects of OPEC going through with stated plans to reverse production cuts made back during Covid in 2020 and 2021.
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Markets react cautiously to Germany’s new Government. The US economy is softening because of tariff uncertainty. China’s central bank is using off balance sheet tools to intervene in markets, and New Zealand’s retail sector has perked up.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Asia, Sanjay Mathur, has taken a closer look at the importance of household consumption in Asia’s economies, especially in the face of tariff headwinds to their exports .
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All eyes this week are on the latest tariffs drama and German election results, but in Australia, fresh inflation data will be in focus after the RBA’s rate cut. The US dollar stabilises. Japan’s inflation is strong, and New Zealand posts a trade surplus.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at two key issues in geopolitics: whether Trump’s tariffs create inflation, and how the war in Ukraine might be resolved amid elections in Germany.
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Global stocks are down after a Walmart warning. Australia’s jobless rate ticks up, but jobs also surge, so the RBA says it’s hard to see bad news in the data. And China holds its key rates, keeping its powder dry so it can cut when the US trade war hits.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou sorted through more than 10,000 product classifications to find out how the 10% tariffs being placed on China by the US would affect trade.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts 50 basis points and signals more to come. Australia’s wage growth is lighter than expected, which is good news for the RBA ahead of January jobs figures today. They are set to show a solid labour market.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk highlights how housing markets in Australia’s capital cities struggled ahead of the RBA’s rate cut.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts hawkishly, warning of uncertainties around the labour market. The question now is whether it will cut again this year. And Australian consumers lost a bit of confidence ahead of the cut.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner analyses the picture the Reserve Bank of New Zealand faces today as it decides how much to cut rates.
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European stocks hit record highs and bond yields rise as higher defence spending is priced-in amid Ukraine peace talks. Japan’s economy hits its growth stride, and high dairy prices and a low Kiwi dollar are combining to support New Zealand’s economy.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist
Adelaide Timbrell
explains why the improving inflation outlook has given the Reserve Bank of Australia the room to cut 25 basis points to 4.1% later today, and then once more in August.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to finally cut rates this week. However, the Aussie dollar is firmer this morning and may rise more as global markets take some of the Trump tariff premium out of the US dollar.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist
Adelaide Timbrell
explains why ANZ Research has increased its growth forecast for this year to 2.4% from 2.2%.
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Donald Trump is set to announce global reciprocal tariffs today, but US stocks rose and US Treasury yields and the dollar fell on hopes delays could reduce the inflation hit. Japan’s rising producer prices support another BoJ hike. And the Philippines’ central bank unexpectedly holds rates.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains the importance of New Zealand’s closely watched inflation expectations survey, ahead of next week’s live rates decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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US stocks and rate cut expectations retreat as January inflation comes in hotter than expected - just one rate cut is now priced for this year; And New Zealand trucks got moving last month, but a full recovery in economic activity is yet to take hold.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan reviews which Asian economies are most at risk from US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff proclamations.
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Markets are focused on cautious comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about more rate cuts. Australia’s large and growing US trade deficit could spare it from metals tariffs. Australian consumer confidence in the here-and-now is at its lowest since September.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks into the prospects of gold going through the $3,000 an ounce mark.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ - Daha fazla göster
