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Since 2011, Libya has been engulfed in a bloody civil war after the death of Muammar Gaddafi. Over the years, it was easy to identify the problem: too many foreign regional players and global powers meddling in Libya’s affairs, explicitly or implicitly seeking to impose their vision on what Libya ought to be through local proxies. These foreign meddlers had no shortage of proxies within Libya. One of them is the so-called internationally recognized Government of National Unity based in Tripoli in the northwest of the country, headed by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibeh. And then in Sirte is the rival entity called the Government of National Stability led by Osama Hamada. The latter is supported by the House of Representatives and the Libyan National Army, both essentially representing eastern Libya. Although from an optic perspective he was appointed by the Libyan House of Representatives as commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army, self-proclaimed Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is the man who calls the shots in eastern Libya and beyond. He is the man who many foreign parties like to talk to, despite the existence of two competing Prime Ministers and two legislative bodies.
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The visit a few days ago of a US government delegation to Niamey, the capital of Niger, did not go down well with the ruling junta there. Clearly as the junta is paving the way for the Russian military to enter Niger and expand their presence in the Sahel, the Americans are starting to lose patience and they may have shown their frustration in this latest interaction with the Junta.
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The #Sahel is now clearly the next big event in Africa's geopolitics. After the complete destruction of #Libya, the same foreign powers that paid for the killing of a nation are now shifting their attention to the Sahel, establishing the bases of another sizeable crisis that will take decades to extinguish.
The Sahel has long been destabilized, at least in recent history. Its post-colonial era has been still dominated by France, despite the Sahelian nations being independent on paper. There have been no improvements for the region, but a fast worsening of the political, social, environmental, and economic conditions. Podcast below and transcript at: https://north-africa.com/zf5r
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2024 should be a record election year for Africa. Twenty countries, accounting for 346 million voters will be called to participate to elections that will mostly be rigged and decided in advance. In this podcast, Arezki Daoud argues that African elections have no democratic content and standards in them.
Different factors and actors have a more direct impact on the political systems in those countries. Among the factors cited by MondAfrique is the predominant role of the military in several countries like Mali, Niger and Guinea, the strength of traditional tribal structures, the rise of Islamic values favoring tradition over the law or finally the impact of Vladimir Putin among many African heads of state, factors that naturally clash with Western democratic values.
Visit: https://north-africa.com/series/africa-2024-elections/ to follow Africa's 2024 elections.
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Has the war in #Ukraine deter #Russia from engagement in #Africa? Certainly not! We know that on the #security front, a growing number of #African states are turning to Russia to supply them with #military equipment and security services, judging by the presence of official and non-government outfits like the #Wagner Group. Things are evolving very rapidly on that front in 2023 and weapons sales to Africa are likely to further increase this year, despite Russia needing all the military hardware it can procure to execute its war on Ukraine. But many analysts have dismissed Russia as an economic partner for Africa. Perhaps that’s not necessarily true.
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#Russia’s influence in the #Sahel is about to expand further with more cooperation deals announced by #Niger and Russia during the ongoing visit to #Moscow of Niger’s Prime Minister and other senior officials. Speaking to Russian media, Niger’s Defense Minister Salifou Mody said joint projects are being finalized during the visit, following months of preparation and negotiation in #Niamey. Mody even hinted on an increase presence of Russian assets as being part of a cooperation plan tying the two countries.
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The #US and the #UK hitting #Houthi targets in #Yemen is largely the result of a sense of panic taking place in commercial and business circles. The #Houthis have clearly identified that there is a choke point that they can squeeze even more to get their positions heard. And what is happening up north, is certainly alarming not only for shipping companies and their clients, but for #Egypt and those who invested on the #Suez Canal.
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In this podcast, Arezki Daoud gives an overview of ongoing problems in #Egypt and what we should expect in 2024.
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#Christmas in #Africa this year has been gloomy to say the least. There was not much to cheer for. The political, economic, social and security environments in many #African nations have been experiencing the worst-case scenario, so much so that 2024 is likely to bring more bad news for millions of people. While the end of the Covid19 pandemic brought hope of return to some normalcy and pave the way for recovery, economic woes, violence, a degraded environment, and political leaders unable to solve problems, were compounded by the impacts from the wars in #Ukraine and in the #MiddleEast to make the lives of millions miserable and the outlook does not bode well.As we enter 2024, we see that Africa continues to be ravaged by persistent zones of armed conflict. Troubles are everywhere from the #DRCongo, with its chaotic presidential election held on the 20th of December, to #Sudan, #Mozambique and so many other places. Of course, the #Sahel is where all the problems seem to pile up at once. What are the latest developments in the Sahel that could point as to how 2024 will evolve?
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#Nigeria: Is President Bola #Tinubu headed the wrong way? After being elected president in early 2023, #Nigeria's #Bola #Tinubu decided to cancel fuel #subsidies, setting the stage for a deterioration of prices across the board. For now, #Nigerians are experiencing high prices, high inflation, a weak currency, with #labor unions threatening to strike.
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The #US and the #UK hitting #Houthi targets in #Yemen is largely the result of a sense of panic taking place in commercial and business circles. The #Houthis have clearly identified that there is a choke point that they can squeeze even more to get their positions heard. And what is happening up north, is certainly alarming not only for shipping companies and their clients, but for #Egypt and those who invested on the #Suez Canal.
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In this podcast, Arezki gives an overview of ongoing problems in #Egypt and what we should expect in 2024.
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As we reach the end of the third quarter 2023, about to enter the tail-end of the year, it is difficult to see a bright horizon for the northern half of #Africa. Two major natural disasters, magnified by poor governance and bad infrastructure, caused the death of at least 7,000 people in the #Maghreb region. Between #Morocco’s #earthquake and #Libya’s #flood, tens of thousands of people have been rendered #homeless and facing extraordinary problems ahead. In the #Sahel, there is no shortage of crises, with the headlines this week focusing on a #Tuareg rebellion in northern #Mali and the #WestAfrican group #ECOWAS struggling to control the junta in #Niger that toppled the unpopular president Mohamed Bezoum, even insisting he must return to power. In this #podcast, #ArezkiDaoud of #MEARisk and The North Africa Journal provides an regional stability assessment.
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Mali’s new junta managed to topple a weak president. But governing is turning out to be difficult with the regime battling on multiple fronts. With bad policies, the military junta has forced the ethnic Tuaregs in the north to take up arms after years of a halt in hostilities, promising months, even years of war in an already devastated region.
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The unfolding #environmental disaster with major #floods that are taking place in eastern #Libya, may be of #biblical proportion and the death toll there can surpass that of #Morocco and by far. Arezki Daoud provide a brief update of this big #disaster.
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.Learn how #SaudiAarabia, #Qatar and the #UAE are competing in the #sports world in anticipation of dropping #oil and #gas income in the future
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Morocco had a devastating earthquake just as people prepare for the weekend. Here is how the North Africa region has always prone to quakes.
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#Sahel: #Mali's new #constitution paves the way for more instability ahead. The Tuareg community in northern Mali has rejected the latest constitutional referendum imposed by the ruling military junta in #Bamako, while conservative clerics decry the mention of Mali as a #secular nation. #ArezkiDaoud of #MEARisk and the #NorthAfricaJournal sees no good news in this latest development.
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Saudi Arabia has been making big moves lately. A detente with Iran, a re-engagement with Syria, a potential diplomatic path to solve the Yemeni crisis and more. Domestically, its top leader Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), has been pushing for deep reforms that required the neutralizing of the ultra-conservatives. In this unscripted chat, MEA Risk's Arezki Daoud speaks with Gulf State Analytics' Giorgio Cafiero to understand these big changes, which could have ripple effects around the world.
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