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  • This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance.


    00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

    01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan

    01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights

    02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply

    04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation

    06:13 AI and the Future of Music

    12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media

    13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators

    19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores

    25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry

    27:33 Part Two

    28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype

    30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies

    30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View

    31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies

    33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom

    35:15 Bifurcation in the Market

    43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption

    44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry

    46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions

    52:00 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • Podcasts are having another moment:  Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all. 


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of Media


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption.


    00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

    00:59 Part One

    02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts

    05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization

    09:09 The Future of Media Consumption

    22:11 Part Two

    22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions

    37:46 AI and Data Utilization

    46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell

    48:33 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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  • Repeat from November, 2023.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.


    00:00 Introduction and Welcome

    00:46 Part One

    00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz

    02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model

    06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism

    07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms

    08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy

    09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers

    15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends

    28:47 Part Two

    32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?

    36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads

    36:34 The Struggles of Threads

    36:59 The Power of Network Effects

    38:17 The Limitations of Threads

    39:48 The Rise of Reddit

    40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape

    40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter

    41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta

    44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces

    45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter

    49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership

    54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies

    58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions

    59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter

    01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology

    01:02:34 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • The past week has seen US stocks–and gold, btw–rally to record highs. This week, we’re going to apply the magnifying glass to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that are driving this rally and ask what happens when the sheer size of these US corporations, or corporate value, starts to overtake individual European stock markets. That’s right - any one of these US companies are worth more than British or German capitalism.  With an election on the horizon, time to figure out what this all means.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    Bubble Trouble: Giants of Global Markets and Economic Quandaries


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the dominance of the 'Magnificent Seven' US corporations in the recent stock market rally and their comparison to European markets. They discuss the significant influence of American tech CEOs versus their European counterparts, global lobbying efforts by big tech, and the economic impact of major tech product launches like Apple's iPhone 16 on UK retail sales. The episode analyzes the UK's economic challenges, governmental budget constraints, and tax policy trade-offs, including the freezing of tax thresholds. The hosts delve into the broader societal and economic consequences of media monopolies, infrastructure investments, and the peculiarities of contemporary political landscapes. 

    00:00 

    00:00 Introduction

    00:55 Part One

    01:00 Feedback and OpenAI Discussion

    02:41 The Magnificent Seven: US Companies vs. European Markets

    04:29 Comparing Market Values

    07:26 Future Projections and Power Dynamics

    12:50 European Response and Regulatory Challenges

    15:49 Investment Strategies and Market Resilience

    18:21 Retail Sales and Apple's Influence

    19:30 Part Two

    19:30 UK's Economic Challenges and Government Budget

    22:19 Tax Policies and Fiscal Strategies

    30:18 The Impact of Media and Big Tech

    35:29 Concluding Thoughts and Audience Engagement

    36:49 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New Government


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.


    00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

    00:44 Part One

    00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days

    03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained

    14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP

    18:59 Part Two

    19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges

    25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration

    28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy

    32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement

    33:25 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock  portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI?  Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.


    00:00 Introduction

    00:49 Part One

    01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation

    03:25 Understanding Company Valuations

    06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations

    10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech

    15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons

    21:12 Part Two

    21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles

    25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics

    36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions

    43:46 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. [Repeat from April, 2024]

    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    The New Technology State: Redefining the Tech and Government Landscape


    00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation

    00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics

    06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics

    08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book

    11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges

    17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing

    19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization

    25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics

    25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two

    25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword

    25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity

    26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation

    27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges

    29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization

    30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation

    31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation

    34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech

    40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation

    42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce

    44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation

    50:06 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • One of the first casualties of the AI race may be lawyers, and that’s where we go this week with Damien Riehl who is at the front line of disrupting the legal profession. Law without lawyers? Really? Are we moving from if to when this tipping point becomes reality. 

    Damien's company: https://vlex.com/vincent-aiDamien's TED Talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/damien_riehl_why_all_melodies_should_be_free_for_musicians_to_useAll The Music: https://allthemusic.info/All the Patents: http://allthepatents.info/

    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    The AI Revolution in Law: Disrupting and Democratizing Legal Services


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the disruptive potential of AI in the legal profession with guest Damien Rio from vLex. The discussion explores the transformative impact of AI on access to legal services, the operational overhaul of legal tasks through large language models, and the future implications for lawyers, courts, and clients. Damien shares insights on his groundbreaking work in automating legal processes, addressing the challenges of legal backlog, and the potential for AI to democratize access to law worldwide. The episode also touches on the impact of AI on litigation strategies, private versus public legal data, and the future landscape of legal arbitration.


    00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome

    00:44 Part One

    00:52 Damien's Background and TED Talk

    01:30 Part Two

    01:30 Introduction to V Lex

    02:30 The Role of AI in Legal Research

    03:41 Disrupting the Legal Profession

    07:54 Democratizing Access to Law

    09:13 Challenges and Opportunities in Legal Tech

    17:59 AI's Impact on Legal Disputes

    23:58 The Role of Non-Lawyers in Legal Services

    25:28 Democratizing Access to Law

    25:58 Part Two

    26:08 Economic Impacts of Legal Tech

    26:59 Jevons Paradox and Legal Work

    28:35 AI in the Judicial System

    34:55 Global Implications of Legal Tech

    38:18 AI's Limitations and Future in Law

    46:45 Copyright and Patent Innovations

    48:28 Conclusion and Future Prospects

    49:12 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • Today we’ve got a page turner…not that Page, our co-presenter…but a book that brings the AI battle to life: Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT and the Race That Will Change the World, Written by our guest, Parmy Olson. Buckle up as it's going to be a wild ride. 


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page sit down with Bloomberg columnist and AI expert, Parmy Olson, to discuss her new book, 'Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race that Will Change the World.' The conversation covers the ethical challenges and regulatory gaps in the AI industry, the role of big tech corporations in AI development, and the societal impact of AI on various sectors including healthcare, education, and law. Olson also shares insights on the bias and unintended consequences of AI technology, the psychology of tech innovators, and the future prospects for the technology.


    00:00 Introduction

    00:51 Meet the Guest: Parme Olson

    01:08 Parmy Olson's Journey in Tech Journalism

    02:25 The Fascination with Silicon Valley

    03:26 The Metaverse Debate

    04:16 Investigative Journalism in Tech

    08:05 The AI Hype: Reality or Exaggeration?

    10:57 The Race for AI Supremacy

    14:29 Unintended Consequences of AI

    20:18 The Ethics of AI Development

    22:55 Closing Thoughts on AI and Tech

    24:49 Part Two

    25:23 The Competitive Landscape of AI

    26:07 The Shift from Openness to Secrecy

    27:42 Meta's Approach to Open Source AI

    28:55 The Role of Open Source in Tech Development

    30:57 The Allure of High Salaries in AI

    31:09 Capitalism and AI: A Cautionary Tale

    31:55 The Distinction Between Business and Markets

    33:49 AI's Potential in Public Services

    36:49 The Future of Law with AI

    41:24 The Psychology of Tech Companies

    48:06 The Bubble and Reality of AI

    49:38 The Future of AI and Human Roles

    51:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

    52:17 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • We’re back from summer break and we want to revisit some past pods as they get dragged into the current of current events, making our predictions as good - or even better - than the AI led herd. Today we’ve got a slew of stories to unpack, from AI Fakes and our podcast with the now-under-threat CEO of Boomy, the unwinding of the greatest money making machine you never heard of, and in Part Two revisiting our Ticketmaster / Live Nation show and the current fiasco of dynamic pricing for Oasis tickets.

      

    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    In this episode of 'Bubble Trouble,' hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into two major topics affecting today's financial and entertainment markets. They discuss the recent fraudulent activities surrounding AI-generated music streams, detailing the $10 million scam involving fake fans and manipulated royalties. Moving on, they shed light on the Oasis ticketing debacle, where surge pricing and market manipulation led to skyrocketing ticket prices and public outcry. Throughout the episode, they revisit past discussions, particularly focusing on market turbulence and the intricacies of carry trades. The hosts promise more exciting content and insights into market dynamics as they kick off their autumn season.


    00:00 Introduction and Welcome Back

    01:08    Part One

    01:33 Reflecting on Past Episodes

    02:11 Summer Break and Market Turbulence

    03:42 Understanding Carry Trades

    09:46 Nvidia's Market Impact

    13:07 AI Music Fraud Scandal

    23:41 Part Two

    23:41 Oasis Ticket Fiasco

    24:59 Ticket Demand and Dynamic Pricing

    26:30 Surge Pricing vs. Dynamic Pricing

    30:58 The Role of Ticketmaster and Market Manipulation

    36:03 Potential Solutions and Future Outlook

    43:07 Concluding Thoughts and Wrap-Up

    43:48 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • This week we’re going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes “robo-adjustments” to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts.


    00:00 Introduction

    00:57 Part One

    01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor

    01:26 Understanding New Constructs

    02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street

    03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble

    04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business

    05:37 The Reality of Wall Street

    07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective

    08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles

    15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading

    18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating

    23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure

    26:12 Part Two

    27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics

    27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals

    28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman?

    28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion

    29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts

    29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms

    30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis

    33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach

    35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis

    47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks

    50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions

    50:59 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms.


    00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles

    01:02 Part One

    01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore

    02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive

    03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials

    06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit

    08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics

    10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects

    16:00 Part Two

    16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights

    20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations

    21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off

    21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive

    23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections

    24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic

    25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals

    27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality

    29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics

    34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs

    38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape

    40:20 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • This week we talk with Linda Yueh, author of the book The Great Crashes. Since America's Wall Street Crash of 1929, the global economy has weathered the most tumultuous century in financial history. From the currency crises of the 1980s, to Japan's housing meltdown, the dot com boom and bust, the global financial crash and the COVID pandemic, crash after crash has sent shockwaves through our world. The Great Crashes tells the stories of ten of these historic financial events. They serve as a series of cautionary tales, each with their own lessons to be learnt. With clear-eyed analysis, renowned economist Professor Linda Yueh uses these meltdowns to extract a critical three-step framework to help recognise the early signs of a crash, mitigate the effects and even prevent them in the future. There is very little that is certain in economics, except for this: there will be another financial crisis. [Repeat from March 2024]


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    Understanding Economic Bubbles and Crises: Insights from Linda Yu


    This episode of Bubble Trouble features Richard Kramer and Will Page in conversation with Linda Yu, the author of 'The Great Crashes', discussing lessons from historical economic downturns and ways to prevent future crises. Yu shares her unique perspectives drawn from her experiences in journalism, academia, and having been a witness to several economic crashes. The conversation covers the dynamics of bubbles, the role of banks and debt in triggering financial crises, regulatory challenges, the impact of policy decisions on economic inequality, and the specific case of China's impending financial instability. Throughout, the importance of understanding human nature's role in financial markets and the necessity for credible crisis management strategies are underscored.


    00:02 Introduction

    00:47 Part One

    00:47 Introducing Linda Yu: From BBC to Authorship

    01:34 Linda Yu's Journey: Academia, Books, and Economic Crashes

    02:06 The Making of 'The Great Crashes': A Deep Dive into Economic Meltdowns

    06:04 Understanding Crises: The Three Phases of Economic Downturns

    08:47 The Role of Banks in Economic Crises: A Critical Examination

    15:12 Regulatory Challenges and the Shadow Banking System

    22:06 Educational Insights: The Importance of Economic History

    26:52 The Eurocrisis and Bail-Ins: A New Approach to Banking Failures

    29:58 Part Two

    30:10 Preview of Part Two: Further Explorations into Economic Crises

    31:16 Exploring Economic Festivals and the Humor in Economics

    32:06 The Serious Side of Economic Crime in China

    32:14 Navigating the Iceberg: China's Economic Challenges

    33:07 The Next Great Crush: Predicting China's Economic Future

    33:39 The Intricacies of China's Banking System and Property Bubble

    34:56 China's Influence on Global Markets and Emerging Economies

    35:30 China's Unique Approach to Big Tech Regulation

    39:25 The Consequences of Financial Penalties on Banks

    41:03 Preventing the Next Great Crash: Policy Levers and Their Effectiveness

    46:13 The Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies

    55:10 Crisis Management and the Importance of Credibility

    59:19 Final Thoughts and the Future of Economic Crises

    01:00:30 Credits


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  • Today, we welcome back Feargal Sharkey, who visited Bubble Trouble last summer and dropped a (water) bomb on our privatized utilities. He’s fought the noble fight to expose Thames Water as profiteering polluters. Nine months later we have a massive credit bubble bursting, dumping toxic sewage in both debt laden shell companies and the real shit floating in our rivers and seas, while private equity owners took out £78bn of dividends since privatization kicked in. A warning: this conversation should make everyone angry, whether you draw a drink, go for a wild swim, or just watch your rising water bill - asking how this utility privatization bubble caused so much trouble. [Repeat from April 2024}


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    This episode of Bubble Trouble features hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page, with return guest Fergal Sharkey, discussing the failing state of privatized water companies in England. Highlighted are the issues of excessive dividends extracted by private equity owners, the massive debt incurred by water companies, regulatory failures, and the environmental costs of pollution. Sharkie shares his firsthand experiences with water pollution and regulatory battles. The episode delves into the implications of privatization on public resources, the potential for nationalization, and the urgent need for systemic reform in water management amidst mounting public outrage and the looming crisis of water scarcity in London. The conversation encapsulates the complexities of privatization, the financial engineering driving the water industry's woes, and the palpable need for political and regulatory intervention.


    00:00 Introduction

    00:55 Introducing Repeat Guest Fergal Sharkey: A Deep Dive into Water Industry Woes

    00:59 Part One

    01:28 Fergal Sharkey's Journey: From Fly Fishing to Fighting Water Privatization

    03:27 The Alarming State of England's Privatized Water Industry

    06:47 Investigative Journalism and the Mainstream Media's Role

    07:44 Exploring the Nationalization Debate and Its Complexities

    11:06 Regulatory Failures and the Environmental Catastrophe

    14:27 The Financial Quagmire: Debt, Dividends, and the Dire State of Infrastructure

    22:00 Addressing the Bondholders: A Call for Accountability

    27:12 Part Two

    27:12 Looking Ahead: Solutions and the Future of Water Privatization

    31:49 The Inefficiency of Global Success

    32:11 System-Level Solutions for Water Management

    33:14 The Looming Water Crisis in London

    34:01 Government's Role in Managing the Water Industry

    34:42 The Financial Challenge of Securing London's Water Supply

    35:27 Reforming the Water Industry: A Shift in Earnings and Management

    35:59 Empathy for the Regulator and the Need for Investment

    41:10 Nationalizing the Water Companies: A Strategic Move

    47:04 Political Pressure and Regulatory Challenges

    49:42 Privatization's Failures and Future Directions

    55:20 Concluding Thoughts and the Public's Role

    57:34 Credits


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  • For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com


    In this milestone 100th episode of Bubble Trouble podcast, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page converse with former Enron CFO, Andy Fastow, discussing the downfall of Enron, financial regulation, the financial crisis, and the manipulation of financial statements. Fastow delves into the fine line between legal and illegal practices in finance, highlighting how business leaders can inject more risk than they realize when operating within the 'gray areas' of business and finance. He also shares his insights into public pension liabilities, the potential tipping point for public finances, and how the perception of different companies can drastically change based on financial reporting and assumptions. [Repeat from December 2023]


    0:00 BT 101 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part Two

    00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

    00:42 Part One

    19:03 Exploring the Role of Technology in Financial Crises

    22:20 Understanding the Impact of Government Accounting

    29:09 Enron's Advisory Board and Structured Finance Deals

    30:11 Reflections on Enron's Financial Practices

    30:41 Government's Financial Engineering

    30:58 Imputed Rent and Government Statistics

    32:25 Part Two

    32:25 Inflation and its Impact

    32:25 Inequality and Low Interest Rates

    32:40 The Role of Analysts and Ethics in Finance

    33:34 The University of Colorado Case Study

    49:29 Closing Thoughts on Ethics and Reciprocity in Finance

    52:59 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com


    In this 100th episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the inner workings of business and financial markets, shedding light on their truths via conversations with their guest, former CFO of Enron, Andy Fastow. They discuss the key factors that led to the downfall of Enron, including the exploitation of accounting 'loopholes' and the destructive impact of mark-to-market accounting and how it leads companies into a risk-laden gray area of business. They also cover the issues surrounding operating leases, addressing the ethical debate of 'genius' vs 'evil'. Furthermore, they delve into insightful examples of business mishaps and financial irregularities including the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Fastow expresses his regret and responsibility for Enron's downfall, highlighting the difference between technically following the accounting rules and creating misleading financial impressions of a company. [Repeat from November 2023]


    0:00 BT 100 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part One

    00:02 Introduction

    00:02 Introduction and Overview of Bubble Trouble

    00:15 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Topics

    00:41 Unpacking the Enron Scandal

    01:23 Part One

    01:25 Interview with Andy Fastow, Former CFO of Enron

    08:33 Understanding the Role of Auditors and Attorneys

    10:59 Exploring the Concept of Loopholes

    13:46 The Reality of Operating in the Gray Area

    25:46 The Distinction Between Different Types of Fraud

    27:19 The Conflict of Interest in Financial Analysis

    28:53 Part Two

    28:53 Continuation of Conversation with Andy Fastow

    30:43 Enron's Acquisition and Financing Strategy

    31:14 The Use of Operating Leases in Enron

    32:46 The Legal Hurdles and Creative Solutions

    35:56 The Impact of Financial Innovation

    38:11 The Dangers of Mark to Market Accounting

    41:53 The Role of Incentives in Financial Reporting

    46:56 The Case of Silicon Valley Bank

    53:42 The Role of Analysts and Banks in Financial Misrepresentation

    54:54 Closing Remarks and Preview of Part Two

    55:31 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • This week, we freeform on two topics: summer music festivals and the stock markets. Will has identified a very interesting bubble this summer, which is the rapid cancellation of music festivals. Perhaps because supply got ahead of demand or perhaps because of extraneous factors, we wanna look into why so few people want to be standing out in their field or outstanding in their field. We're also gonna talk a little bit about the way in which random comments from politicians are roiling the stock markets.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, economist Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer discuss the rapid cancellation of music festivals amidst the backdrop of a post-pandemic economic squeeze and over-supply of events. They detail the impact on the live music ecosystem, examining how financial constraints and shifting consumer choices are reshaping the market. Additionally, they delve into how random political comments are affecting the stock markets, with a specific focus on a recent market wobble triggered by remarks from Donald Trump and the narrowing breadth of tech stock support. The episode links the volatility in both the live music industry and financial markets, providing a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape.


    00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

    00:58 Part One

    00:58 The Decline of Music Festivals

    02:09 Supply and Demand in Live Music

    04:14 Economic Factors Affecting Festivals

    07:29 The Impact on the Music Ecosystem

    08:38 Dynamic Pricing and Ticketing Issues

    15:44 The Future of Live Music and Festivals

    20:33 Part Two

    21:10 Market Turmoil: What's Happening?

    22:39 The Fragility of the Market

    23:37 Political Impact on Markets

    24:12 Investor Reactions and Strategies

    29:56 Global Market Contagion

    33:23 The Tech Sector's Wild Ride

    34:40 Political Volatility and Market Uncertainty

    41:44 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • Today we’ve got a guest who's been doing our job for decades. Andrew Orlowski is a writer who has followed the technology industry for two decades, so he’s see the hype cycle peak and trough many times.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by veteran technology journalist Andrew Orlowski. They delve into the recurring market bubbles and dissect the relentless hype surrounding AI and machine learning. Orlowski discusses his track record in identifying technology bubbles and shares his skepticism about the transformative claims made about AI, comparing it to historical overhyped innovations like the metaverse and cryptocurrency. The discussion also touches on the implications of AI on productivity, labor markets, and the economy at large, highlighting the disconnect between policy elites’ expectations and real-world applications. Throughout, the panel emphasizes the broader societal impacts and the role of critical scrutiny in understanding technological advancements.


    00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

    00:44 Part One

    00:49 Meet Andrew Orlowski

    01:43 The Origins of Bubble Trouble

    02:06 Spotting Bubbles: Andrew's Track Record

    02:39 Google's Market Manipulation

    07:00 The AI Hype Cycle

    12:08 AI's Economic Impact and Skepticism

    19:10 The Future of AI and Technology

    26:13 Debunking the Efficiency Myth in Tech Companies

    26:39 The Role of AI in Financial Markets

    28:10 AI Skepticism and the Hype Cycle

    28:20 Part Two

    29:02 The Future of Chatbots and Machine Learning

    30:06 Public Skepticism vs. Elite Optimism

    35:54 The Nature of Work and Productivity

    42:13 The Middle Class Advantage in the Modern Workplace

    45:40 The AI Bubble and Its Implications

    49:01 Smoke Signals: Red Flags in the AI Industry

    51:19 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

    51:51 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  • [Repeat from November, 2023.]


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page welcome Liam Maxwell, former Chief Technology Officer for the British government and current AWS Senior Advisor, to delve into the transformative potential of the cloud. Together, they break down how cloud-based technologies are revolutionizing different sectors, from governments to private enterprises. Exploring clear cases such as the Ukrainian war situation or the everyday banking experience in Singapore, they highlight the impressive efficiency, flexibility, and speed offered by the cloud. The discussion also touches on the major productivity gains the cloud provides, the importance of building services centered on user needs, and how the digital economy is captured by government indices.


    00:00 Introduction

    01:14 Part One

    01:32 Interview with Liam Maxwell

    01:54 Liam's Journey in Tech and Government

    02:25 The Impact of Cloud on Government Services

    06:40 The Transition from Traditional IT to Cloud

    15:25 The Role of AI in Cloud Adoption

    19:24 The Ukraine War and the Role of Cloud

    20:35 The Process of Moving Ukraine's Data to the Cloud

    27:56 Reflections on the Impact of Cloud Technology

    29:33 The Power of Decision Making in Amazon

    30:26 Reflections on the UK Government's Test and Trace App

    30:58 Part Two

    31:27 The Impact of Cloud Technology on Productivity

    32:01 The Economic Value of Cloud Technology

    33:33 The Paradox of Technological Efficiency and Economic Growth

    35:38 The Invisible Contributions of Transformative Technology

    37:04 The Role of Cloud Technology in Government Services

    39:00 The Challenges of Measuring the Impact of Tech Jobs

    39:19 The Potential of Cloud Technology in Enhancing Public Services

    51:57 The Impact of Tech Neologisms on Service Delivery

    55:23 Closing Remarks and Reflections

    56:25 Credits


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  • This week, part two of our continued conversation with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog. 


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the intricacies of technology bubbles with special guest Benedict Evans. The discussion revolves around AI advancements, particularly focusing on Apple's recent integrations of AI models, the differentiation between small and large models, and the implications for email summarization and other features. They explore the economic and strategic decisions behind Apple's use of AI, the potential for various large language models (LLMs) to disrupt industries like legal tech, and the broader market dynamics and antitrust considerations. The conversation also touches on the challenges and opportunities presented by these technological advancements, emphasizing the importance of careful analysis and skepticism in the face of rapid innovation.


    00:03 Introduction

    00:29 Part One

    00:29 AI and Apple's New Developments

    01:53 Apple's AI Integration and Market Dynamics

    04:20 The Evolution of AI Models and Market Impact

    12:29 Antitrust and Market Strategies

    17:34 Cloud Computing and Business Models

    24:49 The Future of Cloud Machine Learning Providers

    25:36 Marginal Costs in Consumer Internet Companies

    26:16 Generative AI and Cost Efficiency

    28:14 Part Two

    28:14 Legal Tech and Large Language Models

    30:05 Challenges in Selling Software to Law Firms

    31:08 Error Rates and AI Hallucinations

    34:36 Practical Use Cases for AI in Legal Scenarios

    36:27 Evaluating AI's Potential and Limitations

    41:05 Recognizing Tech Bubbles and Market Hype

    44:59 Concluding Thoughts on AI and Market Trends

    47:27 Credits


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