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2012 has so far seen a buoyant share market, rising commodity prices, positive news on the US economy and a better than expected economic position in Europe.That mix of good cheer has begun to unwind the deep drop in confidence evident in recent months among Australia’s business community and the general public. Much of the recent optimism is thanks to the cheap money that Europe’s Central Bank has made available in the last two months. Whilst it hasn’t provided a lasting solution, it does at least mean the sticky-tape holding Europe together is now stronger.2012 may well turn out better than anticipated for Australia. But there is still a definite possibility that things could start to go in the other direction, with, among other things, the economic situation in Europe and in particular Greece, still very delicate.What lies ahead on the Australian and global horizon and what are the risks that might bring to an end Australia’s charmed run without a recession?
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These are good times for Indonesia. Commodity prices are high, the economy is buoyant, and the 2008-09 global financial crisis had little impact. The economic and democratic reforms instituted in the wake of the Asian financial crisis have been bedded down successfully. The country is increasingly important on the regional and global stage, through ASEAN, the G20 and many other fora. Yet the skeptics in the country’s influential political, business and NGO communities towards an open, liberal international economic order are as vocal and vociferous as ever. This Lecture, by the country’s Minister of Trade and one of its pre-eminent authorities on the subject, canvasses these and related issues.
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Why do happy people make better investors and better entrepreneurs? Why do most investors achieve less than half the returns they should? Why are lottery winners no happier than the rest of us? What makes mature women better investors than young men? How do we develop emotional resilience and financial responsibility in our children? And how can we have more money and more happiness?We are what we think. But what causes us to think in the way that we do? And why does this lead us to make choices that do not make us either happy or wealthy?
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Public services are facing an unprecedented combination of challenges and opportunities: demographic, technological, public expectations, fiscal constraint, local and global "wicked issues". The need for radical innovation - innovation that achieves significantly better outcomes for significantly lower costs - has perhaps never been greater.This lecture will draw on international research, experience and case studies to discuss the policy, system and organisational dynamics and relationships necessary to foster innovation and stimulate diffusion of ‘proven’ innovations.Among the questions to be explored will be: What are the required leadership characteristics? In what ways can funding regimes be developed to reward the adoption of innovation? How should users and the public be engaged in the processes of innovation? What regulatory frameworks hinder or enable innovation?
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The US owes $14.4 trillion or $129,000 per taxpayer in debt, and every year into the future will add another $1.3 trillion in debt from budget deficits. The very viability of the nation is not only at risk, but other economies around the world are in jeopardy.In his only public speaking engagement in Canberra, Professor Steve Redburn, one of the leading experts in the US on the fiscal crisis, asks, What options can the US pursue to return itself to fiscal solvency? How much “pain” is expected versus the “gain” realized from various options? and, what are the politics of the current standoff in the US in Congress and Obama Administration in resolving the issues?
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Professor Gregory will look back and analyse employment, skill imbalances, hours worked and welfare interactions in each of the economic booms and slumps over the last four decades and ask is Australia making progress in overcoming what appear to be entrenched structural problems in the labour market? He will also look forward to the next economic upswing and conjecture whether labour market outcomes will be very different from past experiences? He will comment on the changing labour market outcomes for men and women.
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The lecture comprised a description and an analysis of (some aspects of) the current financial crisis. The crisis is viewed as a "financial perfect storm" resulting from a combination of developments in global markets for goods and financial assets. Special attention is devoted to the incentives created by developments in financial markets in the United States and the United Kingdom. A comparison of the experiences of these two countries is used in assessing the relative importance of the various changes in incentives. At some points, comparisons with what happened in other countries help in isolating the key changes.This lecture was presented by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU College of Business and Economics, as part of the ANU Public Lecture Series 2009.
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This lecture examined the growing phenomenon of international skilled migration with particular attention to its impact on developing countries. A framework was developed for understanding the different measures of ‘brain drain' and how they are related to wage and income differences across countries around the world. Based on new data sources, differences in the prices of skill across countries were estimated and were used to explore how skill price differentials affect the magnitudes and skill-intensity of permanent migration to the United States and Australia and the magnitudes and direction of the flows of foreign students. Particular attention was also paid to the circular flow of migration and to understanding the role of higher education in fostering the outflow of international students and their return to their home countries.
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Wage inequality has been increasing is most industrialised countries over the last two or three decades. There are, nonetheless, major differences across countries in terms of the timing and magnitude of the growth in inequality. A large number of explanations have been suggested for these observed changes, including technological progress and the computer revolution, labour market institutions and social norms, and changes in the relative supply of highly educated workers. The validity of these explanations will be assessed in light of the large differences in inequality growth across countries, and the stunning growth in the concentration of income at the top end of the distribution.
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The presentation focuses on three key questions on climate change: what set of policies are desirable? What are the impacts of policy action, and is global action achievable? The first question requires the development of a robust national policy framework and to ensure a set of policies are in place that deliver abatement and adjustment at least cost to the economy. The second question requires an understanding of the causes, nature, and the scale of the economic impacts to achieve the transition to a low carbon future. The third and final question relates to the political economy of international action, and whether a robust and worthwhile agreement is achievable. The lecture highlights the contribution of economics in providing a response to these important issues.
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This forum is the last of three public forums hosted by The Australian National University and The Canberra Times. The three forums pit 2008 ACT Election candidates against each other in the first of its kind ACT Politicians debate. In this forum ACT Chief Minister Jon Stanhope and ACT opposition Leader Zed Seselja debate the topic Leaders in the spotlight.
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This forum is the second of three public forums hosted by The Australian National University and The Canberra Times. The three forums pit 2008 ACT Election candidates against each other in the first of its kind ACT Politicians debate. In this forum Deputy Chief Minister Katy Gallagher and Deputy Leader of the Opposition Brendan Smyth debate the topic Next in Line: The Office of the 21st Century.
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This lecture starts by briefly defining the middle power and its role in the regional system. The security environment that the Korean peninsula is facing is later introduced including the North Korean nuclear weapons problem, the rise of China, and human security issues. Korea's foreign policy postures both at bilateral and multilateral levels is also provided. The lecture concludes with a brief introduction of Korea's alliance strategy, policy toward North Korea, policy toward neighbouring countries, and it's leadership role in the Asia-Pacific multilateralism.
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This forum is the first of three public forums hosted by The Australian National University and The Canberra Times. The three forums pit 2008 ACT Election candidates against each other in the first of its kind ACT Politicians debate. In this forum candidates Frank Pangallo and Richard J Mulcahy debate the topic New Parties, New Choices?
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The 14th Annual Lions Oratory Competition saw selected ANU students from across the University present eight minute orations to convince the judges and the audience that they deserved to win the ANU Lions Oratory Trophy and prizes totaling $3,000 in cash. The event was hoseted by Esther Sainsbury, last years winner of the 2007 Lions Oratory Competition and judged by an esteemed panel of public-speaking experts. The oratory saw speakers addressing a range of subjects incorporating the Lions' messages of truth, righteousness, peace, love and non-violence - the core values of all major religions.Prizes included:First prize - The ManikKam Reddy Award: $1,500Second prize: $800Third prize: $500Donated by the Lions Club of Canberra WodenPeople's Choice Award: $400Donated by the Australian National University and the Lions Club of Canberra Woden
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The second ANU Poll measures public opinion towards higher education. With the Australian Government's promise of an ‘Education Revolution' and the current review of higher education in full swing, what does the Australian public really think about our university system? How does the public perceive the availability of access to universities and the role of universities in preparing young Australians for the world of work? Is there public support for more Government funding for universities and how is their performance rated in comparison to other educational institutions? Is a university education worth it in the eyes of Australians and how do Australian attitudes to higher education compare with other countries? ANU Vice-Chancellor Professor Ian Chubb AC addresses the key findings from the poll and identifies policy options that would enable effective Government responses to a number of public concerns.
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This lecture was the Sixth Sir Roland Wilson Foundation Lecture.The lecture expands on the final chapter of Macfarlane's 2006 Boyer Lectures, which suggested that future economic shocks would be financial in origin. In particular it examines the implications of the current credit crisis for economic stability, for the financial security of the household sector and for retirement incomes policies.For more information on the Sir Roland Wilson Foundation go to: http://www.anu.edu.au/endowment/content/sir_roland_wilson_foundation/
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ANU Trevor Swan Distinguished Lectures in EconomicsThe lecture traces the outlines of economic thinking on climate change. Two competing paradigms are reviewed: (1) modelling of greenhouse gases mitigation as a dynamic optimal control problem and (2) the willingness to pay of the present generation to ensure future generations against the potential adverse impacts of climate change. The presentation examines the challenges of the economics of international co-operation, the choice of economic instruments for climate mitigation, uncertainty, climate adaptation, abrupt climate change, induced technological change, discounting, and equity considerations.
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This lecture is the Annual Dr John Gee Memorial Lecture and was presented by the Lowy Institute for International Policy and The Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.Dr Kelly will address the Rudd Government's approach to regional security and middle power diplomacy. He will cover the role of the three pillars - the US alliance, membership of the United Nations, and comprehensive engagement with the countries of Asia and the Pacific - in shaping Australia's role in the region and the world. Dr Kelly will also outline Australia's approach to new and emerging regional security challenges from a Defence perspective, including the importance of relationships and alliances to regional stability in the 21st century.About Dr John GeeDr John Gee served with distinction as an Australian diplomat in a number of countries. His greatest contribution, however, was in the field of disarmament, where he had a particular interest in chemical weapons. After a period as a Commissioner on the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq following the first Gulf War, he became Deputy Director-General of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague, serving there until 2003. In recognition of his achievements, Dr Gee was made a member of the Order of Australia in January 2007.For more information on the Lowy Institute for International Policy go to: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/
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One hundred years ago this year the Great White fleet sailed into Sydney harbor to a rapturous reception from Australian's hoping that America would protect us from the threats we feared from rising economic giants in Asia. In 1941 that hope come true. Today Australians still regards American primacy in Asia as the foundation of their security, and they have become perhaps Americas most consistent and supportive ally as a result. But our relationships with Asia has changed a lot since then, and the choices that Australians will face in the Asian Century may be more complex than those we make back in 1908, or in 1941. How do Australian see their relationship with the US today, and how might it evolve over the decades to come?
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