Bölümler
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Donald Trump secured his victory in the U.S. presidential race, and stocks subsequently jumped. That is in part because of the speed at which the result became clear, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The elections were a risk event. Elections bring uncertainty, but the memory of 2020 was quite vivid in the investor's psyche,” Deepak says. “The fact that we have a result very quickly has created this relief rally.”
The Federal Reserve also delivered an interest-rate cut, and noted that inflation is now closer to its target level. “The Fed will go where the data leads us” at its next meetings, Deepak says. But markets are likely to remain attuned to the political landscape, as the Biden administration manages its last months and the new Trump administration comes into sharper focus. “The repercussions of the elections are going to be with us for some time to come.”
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.
The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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The U.S. election this week sits on a knife’s edge, and it “might have significant importance for sector allocations going forward for the next few years”, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “The market will price in quite a few things once we get the results.”
But politics aren’t the only matter on the agenda. The Federal Reserve will also make another decision on interest rates, and third-quarter earnings season remains in full gear. We are “coming out on the busiest week for earnings in the U.S., and the results have been quite convincing”, Dirk says. “I think the soft landing is clearly the base case.”
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.
The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Eksik bölüm mü var?
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses widening spreads in U.S. rates, China’s stimulus impact and the growing list of emerging markets joining the BRICS alliance.
Stefanie says U.S. long-term rates are expected to stay higher because of market expectations that deficit spending will continue regardless of the outcome of the election and a Fed that continues with monetary easing as long as inflation allows, reflating the economy. She points to the raft of data coming this week, including the important unemployment data, PCE inflation and third quarter GDP data for a reading on growth.
For Asia, Stefanie notes Japan’s general elections and the Bank of Japan’s inflation target. With the market eyeing China PMI and industrial data due this week, Stefanie also discusses how market participants have responded to China’s stimulus package announced on August 24.
Finally, Stefanie touches upon the latest BRICS meeting. Reportedly 13 new emerging markets, including Southeast Asia countries, are joining the BRICS trade alliance, as the major economies seek to secure commodities for the energy transition.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.
The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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The European Central Bank has delivered interest-rate cuts at its recent consecutive meetings, but the Private Bank’s Chief Global Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, says that does not necessarily mean the bank will ultimately bring down rates massively from their current levels in this cycle. “They need to also watch inflation, which we still think is sticky”, Christian says.
For now, the main topic in markets is the ongoing U.S. earnings season, Christian says. “Favourite sectors, I think no surprise, are technology and communication services, followed by health care. And energy would be expected to be the weakest sector.”
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.
The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Third-quarter earnings season has kicked off in the U.S., and strong economic data from the period could mean that analysts are currently underestimating how strong the results might be, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO.
“The consensus is maybe a touch too conservative when it comes to estimating earnings growth”, Dirk says, though he also notes that with the U.S. election coming up and plenty of geopolitical unrest, earnings won’t be the only thing on investors’ minds.
In the week ahead, the big event in Europe will likely be the next policy decision from the European Central Bank, Dirk says. That’s because even though the local economy is not as strong as across the Atlantic right now, inflation remains elevated, making the ECB’s job a bit tricky.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.
The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses how the Fed rate cut and expectations on its rate cut cycle has been a game changer for Emerging Asia central banks and assets.
Stefanie discusses China’s potentially largest ever stimulus package, equivalent to 7 trillion Renminbi and up to around 6% of China’s GDP this year. Stefanie argues that China’s new forward guidance is a positive for helping to stabilise markets and win back investor confidence. The CIO also believes the Chinese equities rally still has legs to run in the short term, while she says the jury is still out for the medium to long term.
In addition to U.S. CPI and employment data, Stefanie discusses risk and volatility around the escalation in Middle East tensions and how gold continues to be a good diversifier in portfolios.
As Japan faces early elections, the market is digesting new leadership comments as to how that could affect the Bank of Japan’s decision-making, from hawk to dove, which is impacting the Yen and carry trade.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”).
Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank
Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which
conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.
The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024
Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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The candidates for vice president in the upcoming U.S. presidential election are set to debate this week, in what may well be the last debate before election day. The event is not likely to shift investor sentiment, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. But he adds a caveat: “It shouldn't be a market moving event unless there are some policy decisions, or policy rhetoric, that comes out of either candidate that could have an impact on certain sectors of the economy”, Deepak says.
The monthly U.S. jobs report is likely to get a lot of attention at the end of the week, as “you can see that the focus is shifting from inflation data to labour market data”, Deepak says. He is also keeping an eye on Chinese markets after the government’s stimulus measures, and says that he will be watching for U.S. indicators on manufacturing and services activity.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Dirk Steffen, Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Chief Investment Strategist, outlines what the Fed's recent interest rate cut means for upcoming central bank actions and economic developments.
He argues that recent data points, including relatively low initial jobless claims and robust retail sales, had pointed more towards a 25 bps cut. While the bigger cut by 50 bps was arguably not necessary, it is certainly helping to prevent a recession and facilitates a soft landing.
In the months to come, Dirk expects volatility as a result of the upcoming US elections and incoming macro data. In terms of equities "we keep building our barbell strategy with mega large caps on the one side and small caps on the other."
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Markets are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to kick off its rate-cutting cycle this week. The question is how big a cut it will deliver, because “the market is exactly split” on whether it will be a quarter percentage point or a half percentage point, says the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen. “So it will either way lead to market moves.”
And as for the recent ups and downs in stocks more broadly, “We think volatility is here to stay”, Dirk says. He notes that investors will be paying increasing attention to the U.S. elections over the coming weeks, as well as the coming corporate earnings season. “In this environment we will see frequent ‘rotations’ back and forth”, Dirk says, as some interested market participants wait on the sidelines to buy the dips in certain sectors.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Recent U.S. jobs data came in below consensus forecasts, but the Private Bank's Global CIO, Christian Nolting, says that the drop in equities that followed might have had more to do with signs of concern from the Federal Reserve. "The market doesn't like, I should say, if the Fed is a bit concerned”, Christian says, “Hence, we saw a bit negative reaction."
Christian says that a coming interest-rate decision from the European Central Bank will have a lot of focus in the week to come, but investors are also likely to be tuned in to the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The race, Christian says, is "so close at this point in time, I think even the slightest mistake in a TV debate could have significant implications."
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Summer is nearly over, and with 2nd quarter earnings reports wrapped up, investors are now setting their expectations for corporate results from the 3rd quarter, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “We have this time where investors are asking what's next”, Dirk says, noting that “We think it will, again, be a quite supportive earnings season.”
Key data reports this week will shed light on the U.S. labour market. “It's not only payroll Friday, it's the JOLTS report” of turnover in the labour market, Dirk says. Recent downward revisions to jobs growth from earlier in the year will likely have markets particularly attuned, especially as it will be the last monthly report before the Federal Reserve makes its next decision on interest rates.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Following the Jackson Hole conference of central bankers last week, as well as the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, investors are now focused on next month’s policy decision – which could include an interest-rate cut. “It’s the rates market that is pretty much dictating how the risky assets do”, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, in this week’s podcast. “Some of the recent data has been quite noisy and, when you start looking into that, it makes a lot of sense for the Fed to start cutting rates."
He also notes that markets are starting to pay more attention to U.S. politics, and that this may have played a role in recent volatility. In the week ahead, key reports to watch will include durable goods orders, earnings guidance from a major name in artificial intelligence, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge at the end of the week.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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This week's Jackson Hole conference will be in focus for investors because "we can discuss what central bankers have in store," says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. He also says that while markets have shown some signs of calming after a bout of sharp moves, he expects volatility could remain a factor for some time.
"There are of course important things happening in the eurozone as well," he adds, pointing to some hesitancy at the European Central Bank to aggressively cut interest rates amid "abundant" price risks. Data on inflation and negotiated wages there could have an impact on expectations for policy decisions to come.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, explains what investors should be watching for after a recent stretch of volatility in markets. “Volatility has come down a little bit, which I think is positive”, Christian says, while noting that some of the key considerations remain: the strength of the global economy, the ongoing corporate earnings season, and the direction of central-bank policy.
Christian says this week’s U.S. inflation figures will be “very important, because the Fed ultimately needs to look at inflation, what’s the development there.” But he also said that geopolitical risks are on investors’ minds, and that a possible escalation in the Middle East could bring volatility back up. “That is a very important thing to watch.”
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses the Federal Reserve’s pivot for a rate cut this year, and data points leading to September.
For Japan, Stefanie says the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirmed its second rate hike for this year (up from 0-0.1% to 0.25%), and also announced quantitative easing.
All eyes are now on next week’s wage data, which will test repriced assumptions for BoJ’s next steps.
Australia and India’s central banks are due to meet this week, and the CIO expects the RBA and RBI to hold steady this month.
In China, recent data disappointments have shown continued weakness so this week’s important trade and inflation data will be even more closely monitored.
Stefanie also discussed the outcome of China’s Third Plenum which committed to long term structural changes, but continues to link these to its short-term goal of achieving 5% growth this year. For instance, by launching a 300bn RMB extended programme to encourage domestic investor trading in consumables.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses repricing in markets and monetary policy. In considering a September rate cut, Stefanie says the Federal Reserve needs to balance economic growth, inflation, and job market risks when it meets this week.
Europe is also repricing in anticipation for when second quarter GDP data is announced this week, which may show slower growth. However, an inflation surprise, with data due mid-week, could lower the probability of the ECB’s next rate cut in September.
For Japan, Stefanie says markets have been repricing on expectations that the Bank of Japan could hike rates in July. Furthermore, she sees the recent strengthening of the Japanese Yen also as linked to the easing of the US dollar, due to frontloaded rate cut expectations from the Fed and speculation the Bank of Japan may at least start to reduce bond purchases.
For China’s Renminbi, the easing US dollar also plays a role for the People’s Bank of China. Stefanie also discusses upcoming PMI data, with early indicators pointing to a further slowdown in manufacturing data in July. But summer travel spending may boost consumer data in the months ahead.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Deepak Puri, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, outlines what recent economic data could mean for Fed policy, and offers a view on U.S. equities as well as geopolitical considerations for investors.
An update on GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will be in the spotlight this week. But recent economic reports suggest we're getting closer to the comfort zone for the Fed to move rates. Deepak says, "The US economy is not breaking, but is bending to a somewhat slower trajectory."
Asked whether political events are reflected in market developments, Deepak says "a hundred days before the general elections, volatility tends to pick up", adding that "we're entering a somewhat challenging time."
Finally, commenting on U.S. equities, Deepak says "just like in the previous few quarters, the big focus is on big tech, because the Mag 7 are expected to grow earnings at 30% year-over-year compared to the overall index of around 9%."
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Dirk Steffen, our Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Global Chief Investment Strategist, discusses recent inflation prints, elaborates on European assets after elections and comments on the Q2 earnings season.
Inflation data from the US came in slightly lower than expected which caused quite a bit of rotation. "Everybody's darlings - the megacaps and growth stocks - underperformed significantly while small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, outperformed," says Dirk.
Commenting on elections in Europe, Dirk says: "While politics usually impact capital markets just for a short period of time, this time, these effects could last a bit longer." But there's good news: "Fundamentally speaking, European stock markets look quite attractive as we have a turning economy which provides better growth" adding that "this comes at a price that is at a record low versus U.S. equities."
Finally, earnings season just kicked off and although the extended technology industry is still doing very well, growth rates (albeit strong) are coming down. Dirk sees "other sectors coming back and we're getting to a market which is more balanced, leading to an overall healthier market environment."
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, set the stage for the 2nd-quarter earnings season which is about to begin – and reflected on what that could mean for equities. “Earnings expectations are very high, and that needs confirmation,” Christian said. “But in general, we do expect a very solid earnings season.” He also explained why investors might want to look at small- and mid-cap stocks in the coming quarters.
U.S. inflation figures are due in the coming week, and Christian said that it could take some time for prices rises to come down to the Federal Reserve’s target. But he said an interest-rate cut this year remains a possibility.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa, Dr. Dirk Steffen, took a historical view to evaluate this year’s surge, and recent volatility, in megacap technology stocks. “We have to have that discussion”, Dirk said. “But we don’t think that we are already in bubble territory.”
Politics entered the conversation, as investors turn to focus on elections in France and the U.K. and consider the implications. In the week ahead, Dirk noted that markets will also be focused on U.S. jobs data on Friday for a view of the state of the economy, and also for the potential impact on Federal Reserve interest-rate policy – particularly after last week’s softening inflation data.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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