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The U.S. has been a strategic actor in the Indo-Pacific for decades, but it is facing an increasingly fragmented and multipolar world. Even as Washington engages its partners and allies in the region, fixed alliances in the vein of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) are too rigid and disruptive for regional actors to accept. Rather, smaller, more nimble coalitions on specific issues have been gaining popularity.
Join us as we sit down with Dr. Zack Cooper, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, to discuss the future of American strategy in the Indo-Pacific, how the election might impact these efforts, and what Southeast Asian governments should look out for in the years ahead.
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What is the state of the presidential campaign as the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former-President Donald Trump enters the final stretch? How are the candidates faring in critical battleground states? Are the polls accurate in this election cycle? What campaign strategies are Harris and Trump pursuing and what difference, if any, will they make on Election Day? What are the domestic and foreign policy implications of the election?
Join us as we discuss these questions with Professor Daron Shaw of The University of Texas at Austin, one of the leading scholars on US campaigns and elections, political parties, public opinion and voting behaviour.
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The results of the U.S. election will have important implications for most countries, including China. There may be a broad consensus on the need to compete with China among both the Democrat and Republican parties, but a Harris presidency would offer a relatively familiar set of challenges as compared to a second Trump administration.
From the threat of 60% tariffs on Chinese imports to potential expansions to new tech restrictions, a “Trump shock” would have important implications for the U.S.-China relationship. How are Chinese leaders preparing for the outcome of the election?
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As U.S.-China competition heats up, one area of concern for security scholars is that of a potential conflict over Taiwan. Some U.S. scholars and analysts suggest that the U.S. should abandon its long-standing approach of strategic ambiguity in favour of strategic clarity. Meanwhile, Chinese officials and scholars have expressed increasing concerns about changes in the U.S. One China Policy that have already occurred. What do these trends mean, and what can we expect from Washington and Beijing?
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To the layperson, especially one on the other side of the world, US election procedures seem confusing and needlessly complicated. How many races are being held in November? How does the electoral college work? We’ve heard all these questions and more from our colleagues and friends over the past few weeks, so we thought it’d be helpful to answer them in a special episode.
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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s whirlwind tour across six countries in the Indo-Pacific region has had important implications for U.S. engagement in the region. His busy schedule included two two-plus-two meetings in Manila and Tokyo, where Mr. Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met their Philippine and Japanese counterparts for high-level discussions. These meetingsalso produced key deliverables such as the announcement of a new “joint force headquarters” in Japan and a US$500 million pledge to increase Manila’s military capabilities. What can we make of Mr. Blinken’s region-spanning visits, especially in the face of the election in November?
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In U.S. politics, two weeks can be an eternity – but this past fortnight has been especially long. Since President Joe Biden’s suspension of his re-election campaign and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris on 21 July, the formerly fractious Democrat Party coalesced behind VP Harris’ election bid in little over a week. With record-breaking numbers of donations, first-time donors and new campaign volunteers, the momentum in the election has shifted significantly towards the Democrats. How did this shift happen, and with around 100 days to go in the election, can the Democrats sustain this excitement over VP Harris?
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The national convention of the Republican Party took place amid a series of momentous developments, ranging from historic supreme court rulings to an assassination attempt against Former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania. The Convention officially sealed his nomination as the GOP’s candidate and the undisputed leader of the party, while his appointment of Senator J.D. Vance also put to rest questions about who he would nominate as his running mate. With Democrats still divided over the identity of their candidate, the momentum appears to be on the side of the GOP at this point in the election - but is that necessarily true?
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The Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) is a track 1 intergovernmental security conference held in Singapore that gathers participants from across the region to discuss issues such as U.S. leadership in the Indo-Pacific. This year’s iteration of the summit saw competing visions for regional cooperation offered by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun, the former outlining a vision for network of partners and the latter speaking of China’s “five principles of peaceful coexistence.” The summit also saw a surprise in-person appearance by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who sought to raise awareness of a mid-June peace summit on Ukraine, while hot topics for discussion included the South China Sea, the Israel-Hamas War and Taiwan. Join us as we sit down with William Choong, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and former Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security at IISS, to reflect on whathappened at this year’s SLD.
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The emergence of a web of scam compounds in Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos is not just an issue for Mekong countries. The criminal syndicates that operate from these compounds are estimated to steal over US$43.8 billion from Mekong countries every year and conduct their financial and administrative operations in other Southeast Asian countries. This poses a series of challenges for the United States. American citizens lost an estimated US$3.5 billion in 2023 to scam actors in Southeast Asia; more broadly, these criminal syndicates weaken state authority in Southeast Asia and make it more challenging for Washington to promote its strategic interests. Join us for a conversation with Alvin Camba, Assistant Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, and faculty affiliate at the Climate Policy Lab at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, to discuss this important topic.
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As the civil conflict in Myanmar rages on, there are ongoing questions about how regional actors such as ASEAN and the United States should calibrate their responses to the crisis. In particular, is there a practical case for the value of democracy for global interests such as peace, security and development? How are these efforts being received in Southeast Asia? Join us for a conversation with Ambassador Derek Mitchell, non-resident senior advisor to the Office of the President and the Asia Program at CSIS, to discuss this important topic.
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As U.S.-China competition heats up in the field of technology, Southeast Asian economies find themselves in a unique position with both benefits and risks. Investments have poured into the region from multiple parties, seeking to take advantage of factors such as mineral wealth and low labour costs to manufacture crucial components for EV supply chains. However, there are geopolitical risks that must be managed as well. Join us as we speak with Dr Cung Vu, Visiting Senior Fellow at RSIS and former-Associate Director of the Office of Naval Research Global and Chief Science and Technology Adviser of the National Maritime Intelligence-Integration Office, US Department of the Navy, on this important topic.
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From Europe to the Middle East, numerous crises have emerged during the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden. This has fuelled debates over whether the U.S. has the capacity to address all of them at once – or, as some have argued, whether the U.S. should prioritise its interests and pick its fights more carefully. Join us as we speak with Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on this important strategic issue.
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The April 2024 trilateral summit between the U.S., Japan and the Philippines was closely watched by regional observers. The Philippines, which has weathered increasing assertiveness from China, signed an agreement to maintain security and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. The U.S., meanwhile, is moving to integrate its defence industrial base with that of Japan, with a plan to use Japanese shipyards to repair U.S. warships. What do these developments mean for maritime security in the region? Tune in to hear Dr. Collin Koh, Senior Fellow at RSIS, share his views.
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As Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently described, the U.S. alliance with Japan is the “cornerstone of [U.S.] engagement in the Indo-Pacific.” This statement was underscored by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s state visit to Washington in April 2024, outlining 70 agreements in areas ranging from defence to space and even culture at a press conference with U.S. President Joe Biden. How significant was this visit, and what are the limits of the U.S.-Japan relationship? Tune in to hear Associate Professor Bhubhindar Singh from RSIS offer his views on this important topic.
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Here at the U.S. Programme in IDSS, RSIS, we monitor topics ranging from tech to U.S. economic policy. We also write about it too, with Adrian Ang (Coordinator, USP) and Kevin Chen (Associate Research Fellow, USP) recently writing Op-Eds on the TikTok bill and U.S. economic policy in Southeast Asia respectively. Tune in to hear them give a quick rundown on their Op-Eds.
Adrian's Op-Ed: https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/ip24033-the-us-tiktok-ban-larger-yards-and-higher-fences/
Kevin's Op-Ed: https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/ip24035-exploring-waning-us-economic-influence-in-asean-despite-high-levels-of-fdi/
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Based on data from numerous news and polling agencies, all signs point to Prabowo Subianto being the likely winner of Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential election. Amid questions about the composition of his government and the policies he will prioritise while in office, an important consideration is what he will bring to the foreign policy table.
Prabowo’s election manifesto underlined climate change, the conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, and potential armed conflicts with China in the South China Sea as some of the key strategic challenges facing Indonesia. He is expected to be more engaged in foreign policy as compared to his predecessor, Joko Widodo, though he claims to share his predecessor’s goal of eradicating poverty. It will be interesting to see how he will influence Indonesia’s responses to the AUKUS pact, Indonesia’s recently-signed Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the U.S., and Indonesia’s path amid geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China.
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On 13 January 2024, Taiwan voters elected Lai Ching-te as their president, keeping the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in power for a third straight term. The election had been deemed as a crucial signal for Cross-Strait Relations for the next four years, with Beijing ominously framing it as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”
There are concerns about how Beijing will respond to Lai’s victory, given how they repeatedly labeled him as a “stubborn worker for Taiwan independence”. On the other hand, Washington was quick to congratulate Lai, though President Joe Biden took pains to highlight that the US does not support Taiwan’s independence.
It will be important to see what the results of this election mean for Cross-Strait Relations and the fragile détente between Washington and Beijing. Given Southeast Asia’s proximity and economic ties to both sides of the Strait, it will also be important to gauge their response to these developments.
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As part of our efforts to better understand global security and political developments, RSIS regularly embarks on study trips to meet with and maintain close ties with fellow think tanks and agencies. One such trip was made to Washington, D.C., in early November 2023, where we met with experts from the Centre for Naval Analyses, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Stimson Centre, American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution, Wilson Centre, and the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS).
The prospect of a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping was a popular topic of discussion. We also discussed a range of other topics, including U.S.-China competition, China’s economic slowdown, the direction and coherence of U.S. policy on Southeast Asia and the implications of the Israel-Palestine War on U.S. foreign policy. Join us for this short episode as Dr. Sinderpal Singh, the head of the RSIS delegation, shares his thoughts about our research trip to D.C.
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The United States and Myanmar have a long and storied history of bilateral ties. 10 years ago, ties appeared to be on the mend, with visits to the country by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama followed by the easing of sanctions. In recent years, however, the relationship has been defined by two crises: the Rohingya Crisis that erupted in 2017, and the February 2021 Coup that deposed the democratically elected members of the country’s ruling party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). In response to the crises, the U.S. doubled down on targeted sanctions against Myanmar officials. President Joe Biden’s administration has also made it clear that it does not recognise Myanmar’s current regime, and even downgraded its ties in December 2022 by not replacing the then-incumbent ambassador.
The prospects for a rapprochement between Washington and Naypyidaw seem dim. However, from online social movements in support of the anti-junta forces to U.S. support for ASEAN’s position on the Myanmar crisis, there are many interesting elements of the relationship to discuss. Join us for this exciting episode of Engaging the Eagle as we delve into these issues.
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