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As inflation and interest rates continue to decline and the likelihood of a recession slowly fades, financial markets have seen big equity gains. But the latest Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) warns of several factors that could upend the recovery, including the apparent disconnect between market buoyancy and heightened uncertainty, especially related to geopolitical risks. Jason Wu and Nassira Abbas lead the IMF’s work on financial stability. In this podcast, they say while the near-term risks appear contained, medium-term prospects remain a concern.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/48cGMyV
Read the full report at IMF.org/GFSR
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While 21st-century globalization and international trade dramatically changed how multinational corporations operate, the way they are taxed is largely based on early 20th-century thinking. Recent efforts by the OECD and the UN to modernize the international corporate tax system include a minimum corporate tax to make it more equitable. The IMF has also joined the effort by providing its expertise on global tax policy. Senior counsel Cory Hillier and senior economist Shafik Hebous are coauthors of recent research that seeks to strengthen the impact of a corporate minimum tax.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/47YwFhb
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Stories can unify or divide but our ability to imagine them is uniquely human. Cooperation and trust, built through shared stories and narratives, are the foundation of human societies and economies. So what happens when humans no longer hold the pen? Yuval Noah Harari is a historian, philosopher, and author of several books on human evolution, including Sapiens, and Nexus: A Brief History of Information Networks from the Stone Age to AI. In this podcast, Harari says artificial intelligence is a risk to humankind's most valuable resource, trust.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/4dvy3Jb
Find his books at ynHarari.com
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With all the instability within the Middle East and North Africa region of late, Egypt has nonetheless managed to reign in soaring inflation and win its largest-ever foreign investment. Egypt’s efforts to restore macroeconomic stability in recent years have led to an arrangement under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility for Egypt, which makes available US$820 million to help support its reform agenda. Ivanna Vladkova Hollar leads the IMF’s work in Egypt. In this podcast, she says that while stabilizing its economy is positive, Egypt’s next big step is an economic transformation that will lift its private sector.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/4efXuzH
Learn more about the IMF’s work in Egypt at IMF.org/Egypt
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Working from home was not an option for most people before March 11, 2020, when work and home life suddenly collided. The pandemic upended many aspects of doing business, but the daily commute is one routine that seems unlikely to return to what it was. Nicholas Bloom was studying the potential impact of remote work long before the pandemic launched it into the mainstream and now has data to suggest businesses should stick to the hybrid working model. Bloom is the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/3Xbxfmz
Read the article in Finance and Development: IMF.org/fandd
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The world has changed since postwar economic thought placed GDP growth as its guiding principle. 20th-century progress has pushed planetary resources to the limit and brings the sustainability of traditional macroeconomic models into question. In this podcast, Kate Raworth talks with journalist Rhoda Metcalfe about her alternative model Doughnut Economics, which places economic objectives within the social and ecological boundaries of the living planet. Raworth is an ecological economist and the author of Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st Century Economist.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/475TLBW
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For many emerging market economies, moving from an export-oriented strategy with labor-intensive manufacturing to a more sophisticated production process was key to their development. But the world is quickly changing, and Raghuram Rajan says India need not follow that same path. In their new book, Breaking the Mold, the former Reserve Bank of India governor and co-author Rohit Lamba argue that India has lost its labor cost advantage and must focus on developing its human capital. In this podcast, IMF Asia and Pacific Department Head Krishna Srinivasan and Raghuram Rajan discuss how India might leverage its growing workforce and pivot from “brawn to brain”.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/3yt3iX2
Read Krishna Srinivasan’s book review in September’s Finance and Development: IMF.org/fandd
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For decades, governments have been tapping into global sovereign debt markets to smooth ups and downs in revenue with the hope that it would help spur investment. But what happens when government borrowing fails to deliver, and the citizens are left paying the bill? Mark Aguiar says emerging market and developing economies are especially vulnerable to interest rate spikes when debt levels are high. Aguiar is the Director of the International Economics Section at Princeton University, and his research suggests that sovereign borrowing to stabilize the economy may have the opposite effect.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/3yHY3T8
Read the article at IMF.org/fandd
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The world is changing so quickly it’s hard to think of one aspect of our economic lives that hasn’t shifted from what it was only a few years ago. Trade is no exception. New technologies, the re-emergence of industrial policy, and rising geopolitical tensions are all putting added pressure on the international trading system. Michele Ruta is a trade expert at the IMF. He says global cooperation is key to preventing economic fragmentation, from which no one benefits.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/4fuz7zo
Check out the global trade webpage at IMF.org/en/Topics/Trade
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Aging populations in many advanced and emerging market economies mean shrinking workforces, weighing on growth. However, the opposite is true in low-income countries where populations are growing, and the expanding workforce may lack the skills for the job market. How can these two scenarios offset each other? Lisa Kolovich says women hold the key. Kolovich is an economist in the IMF Inclusion and Gender Unit, which has published a study that shows that supporting women’s health and education isn’t only the right thing to do but helps build critical human capital. In this podcast, Kolovich says gender equality can serve as a stabilizing factor to rebalance demographic trends.
Transcript : https://bit.ly/4bFhZ6y
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Nigeria’s new administration has set out on an ambitious reform path to stabilize its currency, regain market confidence, and tame inflation. In this podcast, Governor Olayemi Cardoso and IMF Africa Department head, Abebe Aemro Selassie discuss the role of Nigeria’s central bank in restoring macroeconomic stability. The conversation took place as part of the Governor Talks series held during the IMF-Word Bank Spring Meetings.
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Economic growth is often seen as the core ingredient to social development, but it’s a relatively new idea. So what did pre-growth society look like and how much growth can modern society sustain? In his latest book, Daniel Susskind argues that economic policy should consider the costs of growth more carefully and realign the drivers to better fit with the challenges of our time. Susskind is a research professor at King's College London and a senior research associate at the Institute for Ethics in AI at Oxford University. In this podcast, he says growth doesn’t come from the tangible world of things but from the intangible world of ideas. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3yY83aK
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Central banks worldwide share common practices in how they operate, but the UK’s central bank is unique in how it makes its rate decisions. Catherine Mann is a Professor of the Practice at Brandeis University and one of four external voting members of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England. In this podcast, Mann says the pickup in capital flows in neighboring countries earlier this year required careful consideration by the BOE, and the broader range of backgrounds on its board helped to make the right monetary policy decisions.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/3RaurnK
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It’s no mystery where the IMF was born but its origin story might surprise you. While the spotlight was on the charismatic British economist John Maynard Keynes during the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, a little-known American economist was working in the shadows. Harry Dexter White’s plan would lead to the creation of the IMF and forever change the world economy. In this podcast, IMF historian and author, James Boughton speaks with Rhoda Metcalfe about how Harry White made history without making a splash.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/456YgLB
Read the article in Finance and Development: IMF.org/fandd
James Boughton is also the author of Harry Dexter White and the American Creed
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While African countries have little to do with what’s causing the climate crisis, they are feeling the brunt of the extreme weather patterns and left footing a climate-mitigation bill they can’t afford. Michael Olabisi is an assistant professor at Michigan State University and studies sustainable development in low-income countries. In this podcast, Olabisi says climate change is a global challenge and it’s high time the world's advanced economies start treating it as such.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/4ay37X7
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When disaster strikes, the knee-jerk reaction is to seek public funds for support, but private donors have the agility that governments often don’t. And while capital flows to Africa slowed to a trickle during the pandemic, philanthropy and remittances held steady. Una Osili is the Associate Dean for Research and International Programs at Indiana University and holds the Efroymson Chair in Philanthropy. Osili believes Africa would benefit from more private donor funding and more African women to manage it. In this podcast, Journalist Rhoda Metcalfe asks Dr. Osili about her work and why there aren’t more women economists on the continent.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/4bhCfvP
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Conflict disrupts lives and economies everywhere, but recent IMF analytical work suggests the economic impact of conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia has proven larger and more persistent than in other regions. In this podcast, Ghassan Salamé (SciencesPo Paris), Mark Malloch-Brown (Open Society Foundations), and Rola Dashti (UNESCWA) discuss how the recent scourge of conflict and instability requires innovative thinking. The panel was held during the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings and moderated by CNN International’s Julia Chatterley.
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The World Economic Outlook is more than projected growth rates. The research behind those projections tells the story of how 190 countries, slowly but steadily, found their way through the fog of the past few years to emerge a testament to the resilience of the global economy. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is IMF Chief Economist and brings together the multitude of analytics, data and insight that provide the signposts. In this podcast, Gourinchas says while the fears of a global recession have not materialized, the path ahead is not without obstacles. Transcript: https://bit.ly/4b5O6x6
Read the full report at IMF.org
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Sub-Saharan Africa is slowly emerging from four turbulent years with higher growth expected for nearly two thirds of countries in the region. But while inflation has almost halved and debt has broadly stabilized, economies are still grappling with financing shortages and impending debt repayments. Wenjie Chen is deputy head of the team that publishes the Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa. In this podcast, she says the surging global demand for critical minerals key to renewable energy systems could help the region overcome the ongoing funding squeeze.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/3WbU6iT
Read the full report at IMF.org
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As inflation slowly subsides and optimism pervades financial markets, the latest Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) warns of potential setbacks. Fabio Natalucci and Jason Wu head the GFSR team. In this podcast, they discuss risks associated with debt and the private credit market, struggling real estate sectors in China and the US, cybersecurity, and a host of other risks to the much anticipated soft landing.
Transcript: https://bit.ly/4axvy8z
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